Maxwell Season Summary: Rome dominates playoff run to finish on top

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Rome added to their impressive playoff run by dominating a previously undefeated Warner Robins team 38-0 in the Class AAAAA finals at the Demons home field.  This pushed Rome to just past a rating of 100 on the season. As mentioned below, a rating of 100 is designed to be a milestone in the system. Rome also become the most recent team from a lower classification to finish on top of the entire state. Buford was the last team to do so in 2013.
– Calhoun topped Peach County with a suffocating defense and a controversial call while North Gwinnett edged Colquitt County with a field goal on the last play of the game. Additionally Hapeville Charter and Clinch County both won with solid victories over the previously highest rated team in their classification. Each victory moved those teams into the top spot.
– Blessed Trinity topped Marist for the Class AAAA title, but the foe they vanquished in the second round, Cartersville, remains the highest rated team in Class AAAA, thanks to a dominating regular season.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.08%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,090 of 2,270 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.07%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.90 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.00

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 North Gwinnett 14-1 90.19 1 Lee County 14-1 78.96
2 Lowndes 11-1 89.66 2 Coffee 10-4 75.54
3 Grayson 10-2 85.51 3 Glynn Academy 9-4 71.86
4 Colquitt County 11-4 85.14 4 Tucker 12-2 71.40
5 Archer 12-1 83.41 5 Mays 11-2 69.24
6 Walton 11-1 83.15 6 Brunswick 7-3 67.21
7 Tift County 11-2 83.04 7 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-4 67.13
8 Brookwood 11-3 82.91 8 Allatoona 9-4 62.18
9 McEachern 10-4 80.07 9 Harrison 9-4 62.12
10 Parkview 9-4 75.24 10 Valdosta 4-7 62.08
11 Hillgrove 8-4 74.62 11 Alpharetta 11-2 60.87
12 Mill Creek 8-4 74.33 12 Richmond Hill 7-3 60.72
13 South Forsyth 10-1 72.77 13 Douglas County 10-2 59.07
14 Milton 9-3 72.74 14 Effingham County 5-6 58.37
15 Norcross 5-6 69.86 15 Dacula 7-5 57.22
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Rome 15-0 100.04 1 Cartersville 11-1 81.87
2 Buford 11-2 85.70 2 Blessed Trinity 13-2 78.03
3 Warner Robins 14-1 76.82 3 Marist 14-1 76.88
4 Stockbridge 12-1 75.68 4 Burke County 12-1 66.77
5 Jones County 11-2 68.65 5 Cedartown 10-2 63.28
6 Wayne County 9-2 63.27 6 Thomson 10-2 62.19
7 Starr’s Mill 11-2 62.54 7 Mary Persons 11-3 61.98
8 Eagle’s Landing 7-5 61.73 8 Ridgeland 11-1 61.73
9 Carver (Atlanta) 12-2 59.56 9 St. Pius X 8-6 60.50
10 Dutchtown 7-4 59.12 10 Troup 9-3 59.07
11 Carrollton 10-3 57.73 11 Jefferson 10-3 58.74
12 Bainbridge 8-4 57.10 12 Woodward Academy 11-2 53.32
13 Ware County 5-6 56.56 13 Americus-Sumter 9-3 52.83
14 Flowery Branch 9-3 55.41 14 White County 7-4 49.81
15 Griffin 9-2 52.64 15 Sandy Creek 5-5 49.49
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Calhoun 14-1 72.75 1 Hapeville Charter 14-1 86.01
2 Peach County 13-2 72.52 2 Rabun County 14-1 77.34
3 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-2 71.98 3 Benedictine 12-1 76.80
4 Cedar Grove 13-1 67.82 4 Brooks County 11-2 66.65
5 Crisp County 9-2 53.47 5 Heard County 12-2 65.30
6 Lovett 7-5 52.01 6 Screven County 11-1 64.80
7 Jenkins 12-1 49.61 7 Thomasville 12-1 62.35
8 Pace Academy 5-5 47.71 8 Dodge County 10-1 56.66
9 Westminster (Atlanta) 7-6 47.50 9 Toombs County 10-2 56.08
10 Monroe Area 10-2 46.57 10 Callaway 11-2 54.22
11 Pike County 9-4 46.55 11 Jefferson County 10-2 52.48
12 Liberty County 9-4 46.16 12 Fitzgerald 4-7 48.25
13 Westside (Macon) 8-4 43.56 13 Vidalia 5-5 47.49
14 Dawson County 8-4 43.28 14 Rockmart 9-3 47.49
15 Bremen 9-2 42.75 15 Swainsboro 6-4 45.10
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Clinch County 12-2 53.20 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 14-0 78.14
2 Irwin County 12-2 50.54 2 Athens Academy 13-1 56.82
3 Emanuel County Institute 11-2 45.40 3 Mount Paran Christian 11-2 48.41
4 Manchester 11-1 45.30 4 Prince Avenue Christian 11-2 44.29
5 Macon County 8-4 43.24 5 Wesleyan 8-3 43.40
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 10-3 41.03 6 Calvary Day 10-3 42.19
7 Charlton County 9-3 37.60 7 Stratford Academy 10-2 40.12
8 Lincoln County 7-5 34.65 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-3 36.22
9 Dooly County 5-7 33.04 9 Savannah Country Day 10-3 35.45
10 Marion County 9-3 32.85 10 Darlington 8-5 34.97
11 Commerce 8-3 30.79 11 Aquinas 7-4 33.37
12 Washington-Wilkes 7-5 30.71 12 Whitefield Academy 8-4 29.86
13 Schley County 8-4 30.03 13 Savannah Christian 6-5 29.42
14 Taylor County 8-3 29.63 14 First Presbyterian 8-4 28.75
15 Mitchell County 10-2 29.55 15 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 7-5 27.91

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Rome 7 – AAAAA 15-0 100.04 48.91 83
2 [1] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 14-1 90.19 66.94 10
3 [2] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 11-1 89.66 62.24 20
4 [1] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 14-1 86.01 39.53 174
5 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 11-2 85.70 46.98 101
6 [3] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 10-2 85.51 65.90 15
7 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 11-4 85.14 75.16 1
8 [5] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 12-1 83.41 63.26 18
9 [6] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 11-1 83.15 60.46 26
10 [7] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 11-2 83.04 66.11 13
11 [8] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 11-3 82.91 66.24 12
12 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 11-1 81.87 53.36 53
13 [9] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 10-4 80.07 68.11 6
14 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 14-1 78.96 56.85 36
15 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 14-0 78.14 32.57 252
16 [2] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 13-2 78.03 56.26 38
17 [2] Rabun County 8 – AA 14-1 77.34 32.34 256
18 [3] Marist 7 – AAAA 14-1 76.88 52.59 59
19 [3] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 14-1 76.82 53.83 48
20 [3] Benedictine 2 – AA 12-1 76.80 46.01 108
21 [4] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 12-1 75.68 52.29 61
22 [2] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 10-4 75.54 65.91 14
23 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 9-4 75.24 60.75 24
24 [11] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.62 66.93 11
25 [12] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.33 61.82 22
26 [13] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 10-1 72.77 52.91 54
27 [1] Calhoun 6 – AAA 14-1 72.75 39.52 175
28 [14] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 9-3 72.74 58.15 32
29 [2] Peach County 4 – AAA 13-2 72.52 41.17 152
30 [3] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 12-2 71.98 39.47 176
31 [3] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 9-4 71.86 62.79 19
32 [4] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 12-2 71.40 42.65 141
33 [15] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 5-6 69.86 68.41 5
34 [16] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 69.62 57.00 35
35 [17] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 9-3 69.37 44.34 125
36 [5] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-2 69.24 48.62 86
37 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 11-2 68.65 51.20 69
38 [18] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 7-4 67.84 54.51 42
39 [4] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 13-1 67.82 37.64 194
40 [19] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 8-5 67.25 63.82 17
41 [6] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 67.21 53.86 47
42 [7] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-4 67.13 58.68 30
43 [4] Burke County 3 – AAAA 12-1 66.77 40.49 162
44 [4] Brooks County 1 – AA 11-2 66.65 46.23 106
45 [5] Heard County 5 – AA 12-2 65.30 35.63 216
46 [6] Screven County 4 – AA 11-1 64.80 26.93 301
47 [20] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 64.37 59.96 28
48 [21] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.47 62.22 21
49 [5] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 10-2 63.28 44.68 123
50 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 9-2 63.27 45.81 112
51 [22] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.87 58.21 31
52 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 11-2 62.54 46.77 104
53 [7] Thomasville 1 – AA 12-1 62.35 38.79 185
54 [6] Thomson 3 – AAAA 10-2 62.19 37.17 200
55 [8] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 9-4 62.18 53.48 52
56 [9] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 9-4 62.12 52.87 55
57 [10] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 4-7 62.08 69.06 3
58 [7] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 11-3 61.98 43.37 134
59 [23] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 61.76 55.93 40
60 [8] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 7-5 61.73 54.71 41
61 [8] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 11-1 61.73 33.67 240
62 [11] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 11-2 60.87 41.60 147
63 [24] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 60.79 61.01 23
64 [12] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 60.72 49.15 81
65 [9] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 8-6 60.50 56.06 39
66 [9] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 12-2 59.56 38.00 190
67 [10] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-4 59.12 50.83 72
68 [13] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 59.07 43.44 132
69 [10] Troup 5 – AAAA 9-3 59.07 39.20 180
70 [25] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 58.77 54.11 46
71 [11] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 10-3 58.74 45.40 116
72 [14] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-6 58.37 59.36 29
73 [26] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 7-4 57.77 51.16 70
74 [11] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 10-3 57.73 46.00 109
75 [27] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 3-8 57.37 68.98 4
76 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 57.22 49.00 82
77 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 8-4 57.10 45.09 118
78 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 13-1 56.82 22.77 335
79 [8] Dodge County 3 – AA 10-1 56.66 37.17 201
80 [13] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-6 56.56 60.35 27
81 [28] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-7 56.24 72.43 2
82 [9] Toombs County 2 – AA 10-2 56.08 36.58 205
83 [16] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 9-3 55.91 38.32 187
84 [14] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 9-3 55.41 41.14 153
85 [17] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-4 54.79 48.42 88
86 [18] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 6-5 54.47 50.46 76
87 [10] Callaway 5 – AA 11-2 54.22 34.13 231
88 [29] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 6-5 53.53 47.11 100
89 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-2 53.47 33.49 242
90 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 53.46 56.53 37
91 [31] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-8 53.40 67.45 8
92 [12] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-2 53.32 31.61 263
93 [1] Clinch County 2 – A 12-2 53.20 31.43 265
94 [19] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-4 53.14 45.90 111
95 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 9-3 52.83 39.71 172
96 [20] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-5 52.81 50.01 78
97 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 9-2 52.64 39.84 168
98 [21] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 52.51 47.52 95
99 [11] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 52.48 26.34 307
100 [22] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 52.27 46.98 102
101 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 7-5 52.01 43.42 133
102 [23] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-4 51.97 40.05 167
103 [32] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-4 51.90 42.74 139
104 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-5 51.46 51.84 66
105 [17] Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-6 50.78 51.88 65
106 [2] Irwin County 2 – A 12-2 50.54 34.07 232
107 [33] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-6 50.09 57.02 34
108 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 49.83 52.67 57
109 [14] White County 7 – AAAA 7-4 49.81 43.87 130
110 [7] Jenkins 3 – AAA 12-1 49.61 28.57 286
111 [15] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-5 49.49 48.34 90
112 [24] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 49.03 42.81 138
113 [18] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-4 48.82 39.76 170
114 [16] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 6-6 48.81 48.84 84
115 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 11-2 48.41 27.60 295
116 [17] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 9-2 48.34 26.06 309
117 [12] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-7 48.25 53.61 50
118 [25] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 48.21 45.23 117
119 [35] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 47.98 46.44 105
120 [36] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 47.95 54.47 43
121 [26] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 47.89 44.52 124
122 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 47.77 54.45 44
123 [8] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-5 47.71 46.06 107
124 [18] Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-4 47.65 41.07 154
125 [9] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 7-6 47.50 44.87 121
126 [13] Vidalia 2 – AA 5-5 47.49 48.02 92
127 [19] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 47.49 51.64 67
128 [14] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 47.49 20.98 348
129 [27] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-8 47.35 65.13 16
130 [19] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-5 46.70 48.58 87
131 [10] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 10-2 46.57 24.48 324
132 [20] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-4 46.56 41.73 145
133 [11] Pike County 4 – AAA 9-4 46.55 32.95 246
134 [21] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 5-6 46.19 51.38 68
135 [12] Liberty County 2 – AAA 9-4 46.16 34.83 224
136 [28] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-5 45.73 45.74 114
137 [22] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-7 45.49 53.71 49
138 [3] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 11-2 45.40 22.68 337
139 [29] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 9-3 45.34 36.81 204
140 [4] Manchester 4 – A 11-1 45.30 17.43 379
141 [15] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-4 45.10 41.21 150
142 [23] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 9-3 45.09 32.11 258
143 [24] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 44.58 43.11 135
144 [25] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 44.58 45.80 113
145 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 11-2 44.29 22.44 340
146 [30] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 44.12 42.89 136
147 [20] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 7-5 44.12 39.74 171
148 [31] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-5 44.00 41.25 149
149 [21] Eastside 4 – AAAA 8-3 43.89 30.67 270
150 [26] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 43.73 53.51 51
151 [22] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-6 43.71 47.42 97
152 [13] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 8-4 43.56 34.45 225
153 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-3 43.40 28.59 285
154 [14] Dawson County 7 – AAA 8-4 43.28 32.73 249
155 [5] Macon County 4 – A 8-4 43.24 32.06 260
156 [27] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 43.19 30.71 269
157 [28] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 8-3 42.98 33.77 237
158 [23] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 8-3 42.89 32.11 259
159 [29] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 8-4 42.87 33.38 243
160 [24] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 5-5 42.76 42.39 142
161 [15] Bremen 6 – AAA 9-2 42.75 25.70 311
162 [32] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-7 42.66 50.52 75
163 [25] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-6 42.52 43.59 131
164 [16] Bacon County 2 – AA 6-4 42.36 37.71 191
165 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-3 42.19 24.50 323
166 [38] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 3-7 42.08 52.78 56
167 [33] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 41.95 47.50 96
168 [17] Pepperell 7 – AA 8-4 41.86 27.01 299
169 [18] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-5 41.76 38.80 184
170 [16] Cook 1 – AAA 6-6 41.08 41.66 146
171 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 10-3 41.03 25.20 314
172 [26] Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-6 40.94 45.03 120
173 [19] Elbert County 8 – AA 9-3 40.39 20.81 351
174 [7] Stratford Academy 7 – A 10-2 40.12 22.77 336
175 [30] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-5 40.11 40.91 159
176 [20] Washington County 3 – AA 4-7 39.99 47.39 99
177 [39] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 39.84 67.39 9
178 [21] Dublin 3 – AA 7-5 39.81 33.57 241
179 [27] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-5 39.50 37.31 198
180 [28] Perry 2 – AAAA 5-5 39.08 38.98 183
181 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 39.06 36.17 210
182 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 9-2 38.89 22.05 342
183 [31] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 38.34 57.93 33
184 [35] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 4-6 38.31 40.89 160
185 [36] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 38.23 44.18 128
186 [37] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 38.00 48.73 85
187 [29] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-6 37.98 40.99 157
188 [32] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-5 37.87 34.28 227
189 [22] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-4 37.78 27.89 291
190 [23] Southwest 3 – AA 5-5 37.68 38.19 189
191 [7] Charlton County 2 – A 9-3 37.60 25.69 313
192 [30] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-6 37.60 40.43 163
193 [33] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 5-6 37.49 39.68 173
194 [34] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-7 37.26 46.97 103
195 [35] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 6-5 37.22 35.70 215
196 [38] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 37.02 29.88 277
197 [31] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-5 36.87 32.43 254
198 [32] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 36.43 39.12 181
199 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 8-3 36.22 23.40 330
200 [36] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 36.17 50.57 74
201 [39] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 36.16 49.75 79
202 [18] East Hall 7 – AAA 7-5 36.11 29.34 281
203 [40] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-8 36.01 52.27 62
204 [19] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 6-5 35.97 30.41 274
205 [37] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-7 35.91 47.40 98
206 [40] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 4-7 35.74 44.27 127
207 [9] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 10-3 35.45 20.71 352
208 [38] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 35.31 37.32 197
209 [24] Douglass 6 – AA 7-4 35.29 24.76 320
210 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-5 34.97 28.17 287
211 [39] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-8 34.96 51.90 63
212 [8] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-5 34.65 27.65 294
213 [41] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 4-7 34.58 43.96 129
214 [42] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-9 34.44 52.35 60
215 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 34.44 68.09 7
216 [33] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 33.57 41.06 155
217 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 7-4 33.37 24.83 318
218 [43] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 33.12 48.39 89
219 [9] Dooly County 4 – A 5-7 33.04 34.03 233
220 [40] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 32.99 28.84 283
221 [34] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-8 32.94 40.20 165
222 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-7 32.90 40.42 164
223 [10] Marion County 4 – A 9-3 32.85 20.45 353
224 [25] Spencer 5 – AA 5-6 32.71 36.53 206
225 [41] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 32.55 51.89 64
226 [42] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-7 32.51 41.90 143
227 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 6-6 32.39 34.14 230
228 [44] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 32.32 44.72 122
229 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-7 32.09 47.58 94
230 [45] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.85 40.84 161
231 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 5-6 31.71 35.37 219
232 [46] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.62 39.04 182
233 [21] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-7 31.11 38.21 188
234 [47] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 2-8 31.04 39.26 179
235 [22] North Murray 6 – AAA 7-4 30.91 21.69 344
236 [11] Commerce 8 – A 8-3 30.79 17.52 377
237 [12] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 7-5 30.71 27.42 296
238 [48] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 30.40 35.16 220
239 [23] Adairsville 6 – AAA 6-5 30.28 28.17 288
240 [27] Coosa 7 – AA 7-4 30.22 19.71 360
241 [24] Hart County 8 – AAA 3-8 30.16 40.97 158
242 [43] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 2-8 30.16 44.33 126
243 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 4-7 30.11 41.83 144
244 [13] Schley County 4 – A 8-4 30.03 20.17 356
245 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 6-5 30.00 25.88 310
246 [25] Jackson 4 – AAA 5-6 29.96 33.73 238
247 [12] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 8-4 29.86 24.39 325
248 [29] Northeast 3 – AA 5-4 29.85 26.94 300
249 [44] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 29.73 32.01 261
250 [14] Taylor County 4 – A 8-3 29.63 6.88 400
251 [15] Mitchell County 1 – A 10-2 29.55 3.59 404
252 [38] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-6 29.48 36.33 208
253 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 29.47 50.90 71
254 [13] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-5 29.42 28.12 290
255 [39] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 29.23 11.45 396
256 [16] Trion 6 – A 7-4 29.19 19.27 361
257 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 8-4 28.75 19.11 367
258 [43] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-7 28.73 45.98 110
259 [17] Telfair County 2 – A 4-7 28.40 32.39 255
260 [15] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 7-5 27.91 26.37 306
261 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-10 27.81 50.80 73
262 [26] Monroe 1 – AAA 3-7 27.75 36.89 203
263 [45] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 27.74 42.67 140
264 [40] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-6 27.72 32.18 257
265 [27] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-6 27.66 30.46 273
266 [30] South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-6 27.59 31.57 264
267 [28] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 27.57 24.05 327
268 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 27.18 39.30 178
269 [41] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-9 26.93 45.07 119
270 [29] Towers 5 – AAA 4-6 26.92 34.19 228
271 [16] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 7-5 26.64 19.73 359
272 [17] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-4 26.52 17.14 380
273 [18] Turner County 2 – A 6-5 26.44 26.58 303
274 [31] Harlem 4 – AA 7-4 26.31 17.07 381
275 [42] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 26.09 37.19 199
276 [46] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-6 26.09 32.58 251
277 [32] Metter 2 – AA 3-7 25.57 40.13 166
278 [33] Temple 5 – AA 6-5 25.51 19.90 357
279 [19] Jenkins County 3 – A 8-4 25.45 17.76 372
280 [30] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-6 25.33 35.55 218
281 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-10 25.29 60.72 25
282 [47] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-8 25.24 37.45 196
283 [31] Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-6 25.21 30.60 271
284 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 6-5 25.04 26.11 308
285 [48] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-7 24.23 34.86 223
286 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 24.21 33.88 234
287 [32] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-6 23.86 28.16 289
288 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 5-6 23.76 25.04 315
289 [33] Savannah 3 – AAA 6-5 23.76 21.39 345
290 [50] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-7 23.43 35.70 213
291 [34] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-4 23.20 17.04 382
292 [51] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 22.98 33.04 245
293 [52] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 22.94 50.05 77
294 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 2-8 22.08 35.88 211
295 [51] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-10 21.88 45.42 115
296 [19] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-4 21.84 15.75 390
297 [52] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-9 21.79 39.77 169
298 [35] Chattooga 7 – AA 4-7 21.69 30.60 272
299 [20] Montgomery County 3 – A 6-5 21.69 17.64 375
300 [43] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-7 21.60 30.18 276
301 [35] Union County 7 – AAA 6-4 21.54 22.88 334
302 [20] Mount de Sales 7 – A 6-5 21.36 17.79 371
303 [36] Beach 3 – AAA 5-4 21.30 17.67 373
304 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-3 20.93 3.08 407
305 [53] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-8 20.76 41.06 156
306 [36] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 20.72 32.71 250
307 [21] Walker 6 – A 5-6 20.61 24.94 316
308 [22] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 6-5 20.61 15.51 391
309 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-8 20.49 49.32 80
310 [37] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 20.41 37.66 192
311 [23] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 5-6 20.16 23.23 333
312 [37] Therrell 6 – AA 3-7 20.14 31.96 262
313 [53] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 20.12 37.14 202
314 [38] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 20.02 35.06 221
315 [44] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-6 19.81 24.13 326
316 [38] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-5 19.35 21.87 343
317 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.28 41.18 151
318 [39] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-9 19.20 32.83 248
319 [45] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 19.03 52.65 58
320 [22] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 3-6 18.03 24.72 321
321 [24] Brookstone 4 – A 5-6 17.83 19.20 364
322 [40] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-8 17.51 34.89 222
323 [39] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-9 17.24 37.64 193
324 [40] Early County 1 – AA 2-8 17.20 42.81 137
325 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 3-7 17.19 30.94 267
326 [55] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 16.85 47.95 93
327 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 16.35 37.59 195
328 [23] Claxton 3 – A 3-7 16.03 25.69 312
329 [41] Butler 4 – AA 4-7 15.57 24.59 322
330 [42] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-7 15.30 27.84 292
331 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-5 15.21 15.46 392
332 [43] Laney 4 – AA 3-7 14.52 33.08 244
333 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-9 14.34 38.45 186
334 [25] Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-7 14.19 27.21 297
335 [47] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 14.07 35.80 212
336 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-6 13.57 19.23 363
337 [24] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 7-4 13.48 2.61 408
338 [44] Banks County 8 – AA 5-6 13.13 17.01 384
339 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-9 13.07 48.31 91
340 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 12.28 32.85 247
341 [25] Towns County 8 – A 5-6 12.02 19.15 365
342 [42] Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-8 11.70 29.27 282
343 [27] St. Francis 6 – A 4-6 11.13 17.50 378
344 [26] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 10.93 12.77 395
345 [27] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-8 10.87 32.50 253
346 [28] Athens Christian 8 – A 4-6 10.77 16.05 388
347 [28] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-8 10.67 27.82 293
348 [43] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-9 10.19 34.42 226
349 [29] Miller County 1 – A 7-4 10.11 -1.36 412
350 [48] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-9 9.75 33.86 235
351 [44] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 9.58 26.44 304
352 [45] Dade County 7 – AA 4-6 9.35 18.04 370
353 [45] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-7 8.59 23.36 331
354 [46] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-9 8.46 41.42 148
355 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-8 7.96 31.28 266
356 [30] Wilkinson County 7 – A 3-7 7.70 20.91 349
357 [46] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-9 7.51 36.47 207
358 [47] Islands 3 – AAA 3-7 7.28 23.28 332
359 [48] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-9 4.92 35.70 214
360 [31] Seminole County 1 – A 5-5 4.83 -0.70 411
361 [49] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-10 4.76 33.72 239
362 [32] Bowdon 6 – A 2-8 3.79 24.87 317
363 [50] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-8 3.78 26.38 305
364 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 3.02 29.87 278
365 [47] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-5 2.65 6.78 401
366 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-10 2.61 35.60 217
367 [33] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-8 2.56 14.91 393
368 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 2.26 16.61 386
369 [34] Hancock Central 7 – A 2-8 2.12 18.70 368
370 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 1.71 23.97 328
371 [35] Portal 3 – A 2-8 1.32 20.90 350
372 [36] Hawkinsville 4 – A 2-8 1.02 26.63 302
373 [49] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 0.89 22.17 341
374 [52] Long County 2 – AAA 0-10 0.47 30.34 275
375 [37] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-6 0.32 5.56 403
376 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-9 0.10 29.80 279
377 [50] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -0.14 15.94 389
378 [51] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-8 -0.48 17.61 376
379 [38] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -0.72 28.78 284
380 [30] Christian Heritage 6 – A 2-8 -0.96 19.14 366
381 [31] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-8 -1.57 16.92 385
382 [52] Monticello 8 – AA 2-9 -1.81 19.80 358
383 [39] Greene County 7 – A 3-7 -2.27 11.04 397
384 [53] Model 7 – AA 1-9 -2.81 24.77 319
385 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-9 -3.51 18.13 369
386 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -4.14 33.85 236
387 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-9 -4.30 21.38 346
388 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -7.07 20.40 354
389 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-9 -7.07 23.63 329
390 [33] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-10 -7.98 30.90 268
391 [34] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-8 -8.07 17.64 374
392 [40] Greenville 4 – A 2-8 -8.09 21.30 347
393 [41] Treutlen 3 – A 1-9 -8.16 16.21 387
394 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -9.25 54.41 45
395 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-6 -10.69 2.35 409
396 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-9 -10.99 39.30 177
397 [54] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-8 -12.04 19.25 362
398 [42] Terrell County 1 – A 3-7 -12.80 3.34 406
399 [43] Calhoun County 1 – A 3-7 -13.08 3.44 405
400 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 3-7 -13.49 8.50 398
401 [45] Warren County 7 – A 1-9 -13.86 20.33 355
402 [55] Groves 3 – AAA 1-9 -16.81 14.31 394
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -17.20 36.29 209
404 [46] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-7 -18.62 -3.54 415
405 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-10 -20.15 22.51 339
406 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -20.52 29.70 280
407 [57] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-10 -21.38 27.01 298
408 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 1-9 -21.87 6.18 402
409 [47] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-8 -22.55 0.62 410
410 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -23.34 34.14 229
411 [48] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-10 -24.26 22.55 338
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -24.34 17.01 383
413 [49] Crawford County 4 – A 3-7 -25.35 -2.55 414
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-9 -33.66 -2.11 413
415 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-7 -41.96 -25.95 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-10 -46.22 7.10 399
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 2-7 -55.86 -48.88 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -70.35 -29.85 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 89.87 80.14
2 8 – AAAAAAA 81.93 59.77
3 7 – AAAAA 81.11 47.32
4 6 – AAAAAAA 80.90 55.11
5 3 – AAAAAAA 79.90 67.86
6 1 – AAAAAA 78.35 66.74
7 7 – AAAAAAA 77.85 55.69
8 4 – AAAAAAA 76.02 60.42
9 7 – AAAA 74.93 55.45
10 5 – AAAAAAA 72.13 55.52
11 5 – AAAA 72.11 50.51
12 4 – AAAAA 71.85 52.52
13 2 – AAAAAA 71.60 60.82
14 8 – AAAAA 70.55 38.42
15 6 – AA 67.77 28.97
16 1 – AAAAA 66.41 44.61
17 2 – AA 65.65 43.37
18 5 – AAAAAA 64.69 45.61
19 6 – AAAAAA 64.12 49.51
20 1 – AA 63.11 46.05
21 3 – AAAA 61.47 37.99
22 5 – A 61.45 25.94
23 8 – AA 59.65 8.88
24 2 – AAAAAAA 59.58 48.63
25 2 – AAAAA 59.52 46.33
26 5 – AAA 59.37 34.55
27 4 – AAA 59.26 30.65
28 8 – AAAA 58.81 43.87
29 4 – AAAAAA 58.74 36.10
30 7 – AAA 57.63 29.38
31 3 – AAAAA 57.54 41.04
32 2 – AAAA 57.16 44.11
33 5 – AA 56.88 33.99
34 3 – AAAAAA 55.79 43.13
35 6 – AAA 55.73 23.09
  6-South – AAA 59.74 32.68
  6-North – AAA 28.85 14.85
36 7 – AAAAAA 55.07 36.12
37 8 – AAAAAA 54.19 40.41
38 6 – AAAA 53.54 31.98
39 4 – AA 53.52 20.31
40 6 – AAAAA 52.32 33.14
41 3 – AA 51.60 36.39
42 1 – AAAA 51.50 35.48
43 2 – A 49.29 26.98
44 1 – AAA 46.41 29.17
45 8 – A 46.21 17.39
46 4 – AAAA 45.95 24.01
47 6 – A 45.09 18.81
  6-Div B – A 41.58 20.44
  6-Div A – A 36.93 17.05
48 4 – A 43.76 16.44
  4-Div B – A 39.77 23.61
  4-Div A – A 36.27 6.16
49 3 – A 43.07 20.00
  3-Div A – A 39.07 24.10
  3-Div B – A 35.65 15.34
50 8 – AAA 42.52 26.75
51 7 – AA 41.74 16.85
52 5 – AAAAA 41.22 28.36
53 3 – AAA 40.86 17.73
54 2 – AAA 40.03 24.21
55 7 – A 39.75 17.88
  7-Div A – A 35.76 20.18
  7-Div B – A 32.84 14.83
56 1 – A 22.93 -2.44

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 19.97 88.0% 0.145
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 14.15 80.5% 0.214
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 17.72 85.5% 0.225
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 15.31 82.2% 0.231
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 53.47 99.5% 0.233
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 16.96 84.5% 0.235
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 16.37 83.7% 0.249
10/20 Lee County Valdosta 28 – 31 15.88 83.0% 0.256
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 16.49 83.9% 0.258
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 – 14 13.01 78.6% 0.267
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 – 49 14.92 81.6% 0.281
09/22 St. Pius X Lanier 33 – 36 13.77 79.9% 0.288
08/25 Elbert County Washington-Wilkes 15 – 33 10.68 74.4% 0.289
10/20 Mount Zion (Carroll) Trion 20 – 34 10.84 74.7% 0.296
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 11.92 76.7% 0.300

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.66 12/01 Rome Buford 45 – 7 15.35 82.3%
87.05 11/17 North Gwinnett Grayson 35 – 28 5.68 63.8%
86.76 12/15 North Gwinnett Colquitt County 19 – 17 6.05 64.7%
86.65 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 – 45 5.52 63.5%
85.57 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 5.62 63.7%
85.46 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 – 31 7.04 66.9%
84.43 10/13 Grayson Archer 3 – 6 1.10 52.7%
84.26 11/24 Colquitt County Archer 12 – 7 0.73 51.8%
84.12 11/17 Colquitt County Walton 28 – 21 0.99 52.5%
83.99 09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 – 42 1.22 53.1%
83.99 12/01 Colquitt County Brookwood 31 – 14 1.22 53.1%
83.85 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 35 – 38 3.09 57.7%
83.15 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 0.49 51.2%
82.99 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 1.24 53.1%
82.96 11/24 Brookwood Tift County 35 – 28 0.87 52.2%

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