Maxwell Semifinal Summary: Rome plows over Buford en route to the top

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Rome is the latest team to lead the state in the ratings. The Wolves dominated Buford, the previously highest rated team, by a score of 45-7 in the Class AAAAA semifinals.  If Rome finishes on top they will be the first team not from the highest classification other than Buford to top the ratings since 2006 when Northside of Warner Robins did it.  Buford finished on top in 2007, 2010, and 2013.
– Lowndes and Cartersville still lead their classifications in the ratings, although neither is certain to remain the top team after the state championship games.  At this point, the only leaders that are probably safe are Rome and Eagle’s Landing Christian, both of which have significant leads over the next highest rated team.  If either are upset in the finals, the computer will view those results as just that — an upset.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.08%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,084 of 2,262 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.13%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.89 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.01

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 11-1 89.82 1 Lee County 13-1 77.62
2 North Gwinnett 13-1 89.30 2 Coffee 10-3 76.66
3 Grayson 10-2 85.74 3 Tucker 12-2 71.61
4 Colquitt County 11-3 85.67 4 Glynn Academy 9-4 71.61
5 Archer 12-1 83.42 5 Mays 11-2 68.63
6 Tift County 11-2 83.25 6 Brunswick 7-3 67.43
7 Walton 11-1 83.05 7 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-4 67.38
8 Brookwood 11-3 83.01 8 Valdosta 4-7 62.22
9 McEachern 10-4 79.82 9 Allatoona 9-4 61.75
10 Parkview 9-4 75.16 10 Harrison 9-4 61.70
11 Hillgrove 8-4 74.20 11 Alpharetta 11-2 60.78
12 Mill Creek 8-4 74.07 12 Richmond Hill 7-3 60.66
13 South Forsyth 10-1 72.49 13 Douglas County 10-2 58.65
14 Milton 9-3 72.48 14 Effingham County 5-6 58.52
15 Norcross 5-6 69.79 15 Dacula 7-5 56.96
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Rome 14-0 95.28 1 Cartersville 11-1 80.16
2 Buford 11-2 83.95 2 Marist 14-0 79.79
3 Warner Robins 14-0 78.52 3 Blessed Trinity 12-2 75.76
4 Stockbridge 12-1 75.08 4 Burke County 12-1 67.36
5 Jones County 11-2 68.42 5 Cedartown 10-2 63.39
6 Wayne County 9-2 63.21 6 Mary Persons 11-3 62.13
7 Starr’s Mill 11-2 62.33 7 Thomson 10-2 61.99
8 Eagle’s Landing 7-5 61.41 8 Ridgeland 11-1 61.61
9 Carver (Atlanta) 12-2 59.47 9 St. Pius X 8-6 60.73
10 Dutchtown 7-4 58.86 10 Troup 9-3 58.89
11 Bainbridge 8-4 57.61 11 Jefferson 10-3 58.73
12 Carrollton 10-3 57.61 12 Woodward Academy 11-2 53.42
13 Ware County 5-6 56.60 13 Americus-Sumter 9-3 52.81
14 Flowery Branch 9-3 55.25 14 White County 7-4 49.99
15 Griffin 9-2 52.50 15 Sandy Creek 5-5 49.25
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Peach County 13-1 76.86 1 Rabun County 14-0 82.55
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-2 73.47 2 Hapeville Charter 13-1 80.09
3 Calhoun 13-1 68.07 3 Benedictine 12-1 75.01
4 Cedar Grove 13-1 66.24 4 Brooks County 11-2 67.27
5 Crisp County 9-2 53.60 5 Screven County 11-1 66.55
6 Lovett 7-5 51.83 6 Heard County 12-2 64.30
7 Jenkins 12-1 49.75 7 Thomasville 12-1 62.37
8 Westminster (Atlanta) 7-6 47.32 8 Dodge County 10-1 56.81
9 Pace Academy 5-5 46.88 9 Toombs County 10-2 56.42
10 Pike County 9-4 46.54 10 Callaway 11-2 54.39
11 Monroe Area 10-2 46.31 11 Jefferson County 10-2 52.72
12 Liberty County 9-4 46.01 12 Fitzgerald 4-7 49.00
13 Westside (Macon) 8-4 43.63 13 Rockmart 9-3 47.73
14 Dawson County 8-4 43.30 14 Vidalia 5-5 47.63
15 Bremen 9-2 42.40 15 Swainsboro 6-4 45.24
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 12-1 52.66 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 13-0 74.18
2 Clinch County 11-2 50.97 2 Athens Academy 13-0 58.18
3 Emanuel County Institute 11-2 45.87 3 Mount Paran Christian 11-2 48.57
4 Manchester 11-1 45.50 4 Prince Avenue Christian 11-2 44.45
5 Macon County 8-4 44.02 5 Wesleyan 8-3 43.12
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 10-3 40.89 6 Calvary Day 10-3 42.19
7 Charlton County 9-3 37.71 7 Stratford Academy 10-2 40.32
8 Lincoln County 7-5 35.17 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-3 36.27
9 Dooly County 5-7 33.04 9 Savannah Country Day 10-3 35.58
10 Marion County 9-3 32.91 10 Darlington 8-5 34.99
11 Commerce 8-3 30.97 11 Aquinas 7-4 33.54
12 Washington-Wilkes 7-5 30.92 12 Whitefield Academy 8-4 29.86
13 Schley County 8-4 30.16 13 Savannah Christian 6-5 29.50
14 Taylor County 8-3 29.89 14 First Presbyterian 8-4 28.97
15 Mitchell County 10-2 29.59 15 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 7-5 27.81

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Rome 7 – AAAAA 14-0 95.28 46.93 99
2 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 11-1 89.82 62.34 20
3 [2] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 13-1 89.30 65.14 15
4 [3] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 10-2 85.74 65.74 14
5 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 11-3 85.67 73.70 1
6 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 11-2 83.95 46.73 103
7 [5] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 12-1 83.42 63.17 18
8 [6] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 11-2 83.25 66.32 11
9 [7] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 11-1 83.05 60.23 27
10 [8] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 11-3 83.01 66.21 12
11 [1] Rabun County 8 – AA 14-0 82.55 29.44 280
12 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 11-1 80.16 52.69 52
13 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 13-1 80.09 37.20 198
14 [9] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 10-4 79.82 67.90 7
15 [2] Marist 7 – AAAA 14-0 79.79 50.66 71
16 [3] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 14-0 78.52 52.06 60
17 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 13-1 77.62 55.52 39
18 [1] Peach County 4 – AAA 13-1 76.86 38.96 182
19 [2] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 10-3 76.66 64.92 16
20 [3] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 12-2 75.76 54.52 40
21 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 9-4 75.16 60.64 24
22 [4] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 12-1 75.08 52.02 61
23 [3] Benedictine 2 – AA 12-1 75.01 46.09 107
24 [11] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.20 66.53 10
25 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 13-0 74.18 30.57 268
26 [12] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.07 61.57 22
27 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 12-2 73.47 39.54 173
28 [13] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 10-1 72.49 52.65 53
29 [14] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 9-3 72.48 57.91 32
30 [3] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 12-2 71.61 42.52 141
31 [4] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 9-4 71.61 62.67 19
32 [15] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 5-6 69.79 68.34 5
33 [16] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 69.26 56.67 35
34 [17] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 9-3 69.09 44.11 126
35 [5] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-2 68.63 48.21 86
36 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 11-2 68.42 51.04 68
37 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 13-1 68.07 36.83 203
38 [18] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 7-4 67.80 54.41 42
39 [6] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 67.43 54.09 47
40 [7] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-4 67.38 58.92 30
41 [4] Burke County 3 – AAAA 12-1 67.36 40.55 161
42 [4] Brooks County 1 – AA 11-2 67.27 46.28 105
43 [19] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 8-5 66.79 63.31 17
44 [5] Screven County 4 – AA 11-1 66.55 26.98 300
45 [4] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 13-1 66.24 37.30 193
46 [6] Heard County 5 – AA 12-2 64.30 35.53 216
47 [20] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 64.04 59.64 28
48 [5] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 10-2 63.39 44.60 122
49 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 9-2 63.21 45.85 108
50 [21] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.12 61.88 21
51 [22] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.53 57.85 33
52 [7] Thomasville 1 – AA 12-1 62.37 39.00 180
53 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 11-2 62.33 46.57 104
54 [8] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 4-7 62.22 69.10 3
55 [6] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 11-3 62.13 43.45 132
56 [7] Thomson 3 – AAAA 10-2 61.99 37.14 199
57 [9] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 9-4 61.75 53.05 51
58 [10] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 9-4 61.70 52.43 57
59 [8] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 11-1 61.61 33.56 239
60 [23] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 61.49 55.67 38
61 [8] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 7-5 61.41 54.42 41
62 [11] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 11-2 60.78 41.40 148
63 [9] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 8-6 60.73 56.20 37
64 [12] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 60.66 49.17 81
65 [24] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 60.64 60.71 23
66 [9] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 12-2 59.47 37.74 189
67 [10] Troup 5 – AAAA 9-3 58.89 39.08 176
68 [10] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-4 58.86 50.59 72
69 [11] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 10-3 58.73 45.37 114
70 [13] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 58.65 43.08 135
71 [14] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-6 58.52 59.55 29
72 [25] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 58.52 53.88 48
73 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 13-0 58.18 20.59 352
74 [11] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 8-4 57.61 45.20 116
75 [12] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 10-3 57.61 45.79 109
76 [26] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 7-4 57.34 50.78 70
77 [27] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 3-8 57.14 68.79 4
78 [28] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-7 57.04 72.55 2
79 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 56.96 48.78 83
80 [8] Dodge County 3 – AA 10-1 56.81 37.20 197
81 [13] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-6 56.60 60.43 25
82 [9] Toombs County 2 – AA 10-2 56.42 36.78 204
83 [16] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 9-3 56.22 38.33 184
84 [14] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 9-3 55.25 41.03 154
85 [10] Callaway 5 – AA 11-2 54.39 34.16 227
86 [17] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-4 54.12 47.82 91
87 [18] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 6-5 54.00 50.00 76
88 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-2 53.60 33.58 238
89 [12] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-2 53.42 31.49 261
90 [29] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 53.27 56.35 36
91 [30] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-8 53.24 67.34 8
92 [31] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 6-5 53.17 46.75 102
93 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 9-3 52.81 39.76 169
94 [11] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 52.72 26.41 304
95 [19] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-4 52.71 45.49 113
96 [1] Irwin County 2 – A 12-1 52.66 32.68 249
97 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 9-2 52.50 39.72 170
98 [20] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-5 52.41 49.63 78
99 [21] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 52.20 46.92 100
100 [22] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 52.01 47.02 98
101 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 7-5 51.83 43.19 134
102 [32] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-4 51.76 42.58 139
103 [23] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-4 51.71 39.80 167
104 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-5 51.23 51.62 65
105 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 11-2 50.97 29.76 277
106 [17] Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-6 50.59 51.67 63
107 [14] White County 7 – AAAA 7-4 49.99 44.03 128
108 [7] Jenkins 3 – AAA 12-1 49.75 28.63 284
109 [33] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-6 49.73 56.67 34
110 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 49.52 52.35 58
111 [15] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-5 49.25 48.10 89
112 [12] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-7 49.00 54.15 45
113 [16] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 6-6 48.92 48.96 82
114 [24] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 48.77 42.56 140
115 [18] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-4 48.65 39.61 171
116 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 11-2 48.57 27.59 296
117 [17] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 9-2 48.17 25.92 309
118 [25] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 47.93 44.58 123
119 [26] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 47.82 44.87 120
120 [18] Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-4 47.78 41.19 150
121 [13] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 47.73 21.05 347
122 [35] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 47.65 46.13 106
123 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 5-5 47.63 48.14 87
124 [36] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 47.58 54.12 46
125 [27] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-8 47.58 65.77 13
126 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 47.46 54.17 44
127 [8] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 7-6 47.32 44.68 121
128 [19] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 47.25 51.37 66
129 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-5 46.88 45.25 115
130 [10] Pike County 4 – AAA 9-4 46.54 32.95 245
131 [19] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-5 46.49 48.37 84
132 [20] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-4 46.32 41.50 147
133 [11] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 10-2 46.31 24.43 324
134 [12] Liberty County 2 – AAA 9-4 46.01 34.82 223
135 [21] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 5-6 45.93 51.09 67
136 [3] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 11-2 45.87 22.83 336
137 [28] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-5 45.57 45.60 111
138 [4] Manchester 4 – A 11-1 45.50 17.49 378
139 [15] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-4 45.24 41.34 149
140 [22] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-7 45.23 53.46 49
141 [29] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 9-3 45.15 36.64 205
142 [23] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 9-3 44.83 31.88 258
143 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 11-2 44.45 22.58 338
144 [24] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 44.36 42.88 137
145 [25] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 44.34 45.55 112
146 [20] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 7-5 44.16 39.78 168
147 [30] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 44.13 42.90 136
148 [5] Macon County 4 – A 8-4 44.02 32.56 251
149 [31] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-5 43.86 41.10 151
150 [21] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-6 43.84 47.61 92
151 [22] Eastside 4 – AAAA 8-3 43.82 30.54 269
152 [13] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 8-4 43.63 34.52 225
153 [26] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 43.47 53.32 50
154 [14] Dawson County 7 – AAA 8-4 43.30 32.78 247
155 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-3 43.12 28.44 286
156 [23] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 8-3 42.97 32.19 257
157 [27] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 42.90 30.43 272
158 [24] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 5-5 42.77 42.47 142
159 [28] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 8-3 42.72 33.52 240
160 [32] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-7 42.56 50.49 74
161 [29] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 8-4 42.54 33.09 243
162 [16] Bacon County 2 – AA 6-4 42.48 37.84 188
163 [25] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-6 42.43 43.50 131
164 [15] Bremen 6 – AAA 9-2 42.40 25.55 313
165 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-3 42.19 24.55 323
166 [17] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-5 41.86 38.91 183
167 [18] Pepperell 7 – AA 8-4 41.84 27.06 299
168 [38] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 3-7 41.79 52.49 54
169 [33] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 41.56 47.13 97
170 [16] Cook 1 – AAA 6-6 41.28 41.88 144
171 [26] Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-6 40.99 45.08 118
172 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 10-3 40.89 25.14 314
173 [19] Elbert County 8 – AA 9-3 40.41 20.88 350
174 [7] Stratford Academy 7 – A 10-2 40.32 22.93 335
175 [30] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-5 40.16 40.98 156
176 [20] Washington County 3 – AA 4-7 40.07 47.57 93
177 [21] Dublin 3 – AA 7-5 39.83 33.60 237
178 [39] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 39.60 67.13 9
179 [27] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-5 39.57 37.40 191
180 [28] Perry 2 – AAAA 5-5 39.19 39.13 175
181 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 9-2 38.86 22.06 341
182 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 38.84 35.96 210
183 [31] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 38.40 58.08 31
184 [35] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 4-6 38.05 40.63 159
185 [29] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-6 38.04 41.04 153
186 [36] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 37.80 43.75 130
187 [22] Southwest 3 – AA 5-5 37.73 38.25 185
188 [7] Charlton County 2 – A 9-3 37.71 25.80 310
189 [30] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-6 37.67 40.49 162
190 [32] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-5 37.65 34.07 228
191 [33] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 5-6 37.61 39.83 166
192 [37] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 37.59 48.28 85
193 [23] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-4 37.58 27.80 293
194 [34] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 6-5 37.05 35.52 217
195 [35] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-7 37.04 46.77 101
196 [38] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 37.04 29.89 276
197 [31] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-5 36.69 32.26 256
198 [32] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 36.28 38.97 181
199 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 8-3 36.27 23.41 330
200 [18] East Hall 7 – AAA 7-5 36.12 29.39 281
201 [19] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 6-5 35.98 30.43 271
202 [36] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-7 35.95 47.47 95
203 [37] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 35.91 50.30 75
204 [39] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 35.71 49.30 79
205 [40] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-8 35.64 51.92 62
206 [9] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 10-3 35.58 20.80 351
207 [40] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 4-7 35.49 44.03 127
208 [24] Douglass 6 – AA 7-4 35.25 24.59 322
209 [8] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-5 35.17 27.94 289
210 [38] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 35.09 37.11 200
211 [39] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-8 35.07 52.06 59
212 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-5 34.99 28.18 288
213 [41] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-9 34.56 52.48 55
214 [42] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 4-7 34.42 43.84 129
215 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 34.26 67.97 6
216 [33] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 33.58 41.10 152
217 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 7-4 33.54 24.98 315
218 [9] Dooly County 4 – A 5-7 33.04 34.05 230
219 [34] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-8 33.01 40.26 165
220 [10] Marion County 4 – A 9-3 32.91 20.55 353
221 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-7 32.86 40.43 163
222 [25] Spencer 5 – AA 5-6 32.80 36.54 207
223 [40] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 32.74 28.61 285
224 [43] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 32.66 47.93 90
225 [41] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-7 32.31 41.71 145
226 [42] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 32.29 51.62 64
227 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 6-6 32.27 34.04 231
228 [44] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 32.15 44.46 124
229 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-7 31.86 47.28 96
230 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 5-6 31.76 35.49 219
231 [45] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.59 40.60 160
232 [46] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.58 39.02 179
233 [21] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-7 31.12 38.23 187
234 [47] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 2-8 30.97 39.20 174
235 [11] Commerce 8 – A 8-3 30.97 17.69 375
236 [12] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 7-5 30.92 27.63 295
237 [22] North Murray 6 – AAA 7-4 30.75 21.55 343
238 [27] Berrien 1 – AA 4-7 30.50 42.34 143
239 [23] Hart County 8 – AAA 3-8 30.34 40.82 158
240 [28] Coosa 7 – AA 7-4 30.24 19.77 359
241 [48] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 30.18 34.95 221
242 [13] Schley County 4 – A 8-4 30.16 20.30 356
243 [24] Jackson 4 – AAA 5-6 30.05 33.87 233
244 [25] Adairsville 6 – AAA 6-5 30.05 27.92 290
245 [43] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 2-8 29.98 44.13 125
246 [14] Taylor County 4 – A 8-3 29.89 7.04 400
247 [29] Northeast 3 – AA 5-4 29.86 26.97 301
248 [12] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 8-4 29.86 24.39 325
249 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 6-5 29.82 25.71 312
250 [15] Mitchell County 1 – A 10-2 29.59 4.06 404
251 [13] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-5 29.50 28.20 287
252 [38] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-6 29.48 36.37 208
253 [44] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 29.44 31.71 260
254 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 29.36 50.90 69
255 [16] Trion 6 – A 7-4 29.16 19.28 365
256 [39] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 29.08 11.43 396
257 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 8-4 28.97 19.28 364
258 [43] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-7 28.54 45.77 110
259 [17] Telfair County 2 – A 4-7 28.41 32.45 253
260 [26] Monroe 1 – AAA 3-7 27.93 37.07 201
261 [40] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-6 27.83 32.30 255
262 [45] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 27.82 42.78 138
263 [15] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 7-5 27.81 26.29 305
264 [27] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-6 27.70 30.50 270
265 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-10 27.56 50.54 73
266 [30] South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-6 27.45 31.39 262
267 [28] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 27.39 23.91 327
268 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 26.94 39.07 177
269 [41] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-9 26.84 45.01 119
270 [16] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-4 26.69 17.29 380
271 [17] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 7-5 26.67 19.76 360
272 [29] Towers 5 – AAA 4-6 26.61 33.85 234
273 [18] Turner County 2 – A 6-5 26.53 26.68 303
274 [31] Harlem 4 – AA 7-4 26.32 17.08 384
275 [42] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 26.17 37.26 196
276 [46] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-6 25.85 32.35 254
277 [32] Metter 2 – AA 3-7 25.70 40.29 164
278 [19] Jenkins County 3 – A 8-4 25.60 17.90 372
279 [33] Temple 5 – AA 6-5 25.49 19.89 358
280 [30] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-6 25.39 35.58 215
281 [31] Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-6 25.24 30.64 267
282 [47] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-8 25.02 37.27 194
283 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-10 24.94 60.40 26
284 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 6-5 24.91 26.02 308
285 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 23.97 33.64 236
286 [48] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-7 23.95 34.58 224
287 [32] Savannah 3 – AAA 6-5 23.79 21.44 344
288 [33] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-6 23.66 27.91 291
289 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 5-6 23.50 24.79 318
290 [34] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-4 23.25 17.12 381
291 [50] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-7 23.19 35.49 218
292 [51] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 22.73 32.80 246
293 [52] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 22.54 49.66 77
294 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 2-8 22.14 35.94 211
295 [19] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-4 21.99 15.91 390
296 [20] Montgomery County 3 – A 6-5 21.79 17.74 373
297 [35] Chattooga 7 – AA 4-7 21.77 30.70 266
298 [35] Union County 7 – AAA 6-4 21.75 23.01 334
299 [51] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-10 21.66 45.19 117
300 [52] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-9 21.59 39.57 172
301 [20] Mount de Sales 7 – A 6-5 21.48 17.91 371
302 [43] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-7 21.41 30.01 274
303 [36] Beach 3 – AAA 5-4 21.35 17.73 374
304 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-3 21.26 3.56 407
305 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 6-5 20.77 15.68 391
306 [22] Walker 6 – A 5-6 20.60 24.96 316
307 [53] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-8 20.59 40.87 157
308 [36] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 20.57 32.55 252
309 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-8 20.23 49.21 80
310 [37] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 20.15 35.21 220
311 [38] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 20.09 37.27 195
312 [23] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 5-6 20.05 23.13 333
313 [37] Therrell 6 – AA 3-7 19.99 31.78 259
314 [53] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 19.93 36.94 202
315 [44] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-6 19.80 24.15 326
316 [39] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-9 19.35 32.96 244
317 [38] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-5 19.33 21.89 342
318 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.08 41.00 155
319 [45] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 18.80 52.47 56
320 [22] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 3-6 18.08 24.73 320
321 [24] Brookstone 4 – A 5-6 17.94 19.32 362
322 [39] Early County 1 – AA 2-8 17.91 43.23 133
323 [40] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-8 17.52 34.88 222
324 [40] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-9 17.27 37.64 190
325 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 3-7 17.00 30.80 264
326 [55] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 16.45 47.57 94
327 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 16.14 37.35 192
328 [23] Claxton 3 – A 3-7 16.10 25.78 311
329 [41] Butler 4 – AA 4-7 15.55 24.60 321
330 [42] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-7 15.19 27.67 294
331 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-5 15.08 15.35 392
332 [43] Laney 4 – AA 3-7 14.52 33.22 242
333 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-9 14.16 38.24 186
334 [47] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 14.16 35.88 212
335 [25] Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-7 14.07 27.08 298
336 [24] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 7-4 13.86 3.13 408
337 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-6 13.52 19.19 366
338 [44] Banks County 8 – AA 5-6 13.20 17.12 382
339 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-9 12.89 48.11 88
340 [25] Towns County 8 – A 5-6 12.27 19.35 361
341 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 12.13 32.74 248
342 [42] Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-8 11.76 29.30 282
343 [27] St. Francis 6 – A 4-6 11.10 17.49 379
344 [26] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 11.01 12.87 395
345 [27] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-8 10.95 32.57 250
346 [28] Athens Christian 8 – A 4-6 10.93 16.23 388
347 [28] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-8 10.75 27.86 292
348 [29] Miller County 1 – A 7-4 10.69 -0.83 412
349 [43] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-9 10.38 34.50 226
350 [45] Dade County 7 – AA 4-6 9.71 18.08 370
351 [48] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-9 9.54 33.72 235
352 [44] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 9.32 26.12 307
353 [46] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-9 8.61 41.53 146
354 [45] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-7 8.50 23.17 332
355 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-8 7.87 31.29 263
356 [30] Wilkinson County 7 – A 3-7 7.80 21.04 348
357 [46] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-9 7.62 36.59 206
358 [47] Islands 3 – AAA 3-7 7.32 23.32 331
359 [31] Seminole County 1 – A 5-5 5.35 -0.13 411
360 [48] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-9 5.07 35.82 213
361 [49] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-10 5.04 33.90 232
362 [32] Bowdon 6 – A 2-8 3.76 24.81 317
363 [50] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-8 3.69 26.18 306
364 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 3.49 29.92 275
365 [47] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-5 2.69 6.83 401
366 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-10 2.67 35.65 214
367 [33] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-8 2.56 14.93 393
368 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 2.40 16.79 386
369 [34] Hancock Central 7 – A 2-8 2.20 18.84 368
370 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 1.77 23.89 328
371 [35] Portal 3 – A 2-8 1.37 21.00 349
372 [36] Hawkinsville 4 – A 2-8 1.13 26.80 302
373 [49] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 0.86 22.18 340
374 [52] Long County 2 – AAA 0-10 0.51 30.37 273
375 [37] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-6 0.37 5.63 403
376 [50] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -0.09 16.02 389
377 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-9 -0.15 29.55 278
378 [51] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-8 -0.39 17.67 376
379 [38] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -0.62 28.90 283
380 [30] Christian Heritage 6 – A 2-8 -1.00 19.08 367
381 [31] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-8 -1.42 17.11 383
382 [52] Monticello 8 – AA 2-9 -1.77 19.89 357
383 [39] Greene County 7 – A 3-7 -2.22 11.15 397
384 [53] Model 7 – AA 1-9 -2.71 24.76 319
385 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-9 -3.38 18.19 369
386 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -4.40 33.48 241
387 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-9 -4.54 21.17 346
388 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -6.91 20.55 354
389 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-9 -7.09 23.65 329
390 [33] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-10 -8.07 30.79 265
391 [40] Greenville 4 – A 2-8 -8.07 21.38 345
392 [41] Treutlen 3 – A 1-9 -8.12 16.28 387
393 [34] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-8 -8.12 17.63 377
394 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -9.45 54.22 43
395 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-6 -10.70 2.42 409
396 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-9 -11.11 39.06 178
397 [54] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-8 -11.99 19.30 363
398 [42] Terrell County 1 – A 3-7 -12.15 3.83 406
399 [43] Calhoun County 1 – A 3-7 -12.45 3.93 405
400 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 3-7 -13.44 8.61 398
401 [45] Warren County 7 – A 1-9 -13.83 20.49 355
402 [55] Groves 3 – AAA 1-9 -16.77 14.36 394
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -17.13 36.20 209
404 [46] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-7 -17.96 -2.97 415
405 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-10 -20.19 22.49 339
406 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -20.56 29.51 279
407 [57] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-10 -21.33 27.08 297
408 [47] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-8 -21.69 1.13 410
409 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 1-9 -21.86 6.23 402
410 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -23.01 34.06 229
411 [48] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-10 -24.27 22.69 337
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -24.56 16.81 385
413 [49] Crawford County 4 – A 3-7 -25.28 -2.46 414
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-9 -33.08 -1.54 413
415 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-7 -41.75 -25.77 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-10 -46.18 7.19 399
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 2-7 -55.62 -48.63 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -70.10 -29.82 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 90.18 80.50
2 8 – AAAAAAA 82.03 59.71
3 6 – AAAAAAA 80.33 54.83
4 3 – AAAAAAA 79.55 67.49
5 1 – AAAAAA 78.30 66.85
6 7 – AAAAAAA 77.84 55.57
7 7 – AAAAA 77.55 47.09
8 4 – AAAAAAA 75.84 60.19
9 7 – AAAA 75.31 55.59
10 5 – AAAAAAA 71.84 55.22
11 2 – AAAAAA 71.59 60.85
12 4 – AAAAA 71.48 52.24
13 5 – AAAA 71.23 50.29
14 8 – AAAAA 69.29 38.23
15 1 – AAAAA 67.67 44.88
16 2 – AA 64.86 43.47
17 8 – AA 64.23 8.93
18 5 – AAAAAA 64.21 45.19
19 6 – AAAAAA 63.64 49.02
20 1 – AA 63.52 46.54
21 6 – AA 62.66 28.83
22 4 – AAA 62.12 30.80
23 3 – AAAA 61.67 38.01
24 2 – AAAAA 59.52 46.37
25 2 – AAAAAAA 59.21 48.27
26 8 – AAAA 58.88 43.86
27 4 – AAAAAA 58.76 35.91
28 7 – AAA 58.66 29.50
29 5 – AAA 58.47 34.15
30 5 – A 58.37 25.79
31 3 – AAAAA 57.34 40.83
32 2 – AAAA 57.27 44.20
33 5 – AA 56.42 34.00
34 3 – AAAAAA 55.89 43.19
35 7 – AAAAAA 54.88 35.88
36 4 – AA 54.58 20.33
37 8 – AAAAAA 54.00 40.26
38 6 – AAAA 53.40 31.83
39 6 – AAA 52.82 22.89
6-South – AAA 56.20 32.30
6-North – AAA 28.69 14.72
40 6 – AAAAA 52.14 32.91
41 3 – AA 51.66 36.39
42 1 – AAAA 51.56 35.55
43 2 – A 49.27 27.04
44 8 – A 46.94 17.57
45 1 – AAA 46.57 29.35
46 4 – AAAA 45.94 23.84
47 6 – A 45.11 18.80
6-Div B – A 41.65 20.45
6-Div A – A 36.88 17.02
48 4 – A 44.05 16.58
4-Div B – A 40.15 23.82
4-Div A – A 36.41 6.23
49 3 – A 43.25 20.10
3-Div A – A 39.13 24.17
3-Div B – A 35.96 15.45
50 8 – AAA 42.43 26.77
51 7 – AA 41.85 16.98
52 3 – AAA 40.94 17.77
53 5 – AAAAA 40.92 28.08
54 7 – A 39.99 18.05
7-Div A – A 35.94 20.33
7-Div B – A 33.14 15.00
55 2 – AAA 39.98 24.24
56 1 – A 23.23 -1.87

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 20.08 88.2% 0.143
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 14.28 80.7% 0.212
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 17.45 85.1% 0.229
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 53.75 99.5% 0.231
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 15.34 82.3% 0.231
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 17.08 84.7% 0.234
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 16.45 83.8% 0.248
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 16.48 83.9% 0.258
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 – 14 13.07 78.7% 0.266
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 – 49 15.14 82.0% 0.278
10/20 Lee County Valdosta 28 – 31 14.39 80.8% 0.278
09/22 St. Pius X Lanier 33 – 36 14.15 80.5% 0.282
08/25 Elbert County Washington-Wilkes 15 – 33 10.50 74.1% 0.292
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 12.05 76.9% 0.298
10/20 Mount Zion (Carroll) Trion 20 – 34 10.72 74.5% 0.298

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.16 12/09 North Gwinnett Colquitt County 3.63 59.0%
87.09 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 – 45 5.16 62.6%
87.00 11/17 North Gwinnett Grayson 35 – 28 4.57 61.2%
86.09 12/01 Rome Buford 45 – 7 12.33 77.4%
85.77 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 5.57 63.6%
85.21 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 – 31 6.25 65.1%
84.54 10/13 Grayson Archer 3 – 6 1.31 53.3%
84.51 11/24 Colquitt County Archer 12 – 7 1.24 53.1%
84.29 11/17 Colquitt County Walton 28 – 21 1.61 54.0%
84.27 09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 – 42 1.65 54.1%
84.27 12/01 Colquitt County Brookwood 31 – 14 1.65 54.1%
84.17 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 35 – 38 3.44 58.5%
83.21 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 0.41 51.0%
83.11 11/24 Brookwood Tift County 35 – 28 0.77 51.9%
83.00 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 1.05 52.6%

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