Maxwell Round Two Summary: McEachern, Blessed Trinity throw brackets into chaos

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Buford takes over as Georgia’s highest rated team. Lowndes and Cartersville, in spite of their losses, both retain their position as the highest rated team in their classification based on their performance over the entire season.
– McEachern and Blessed Trinity threw the playoffs into chaos as they eliminated the top rated teams in Classes AAAAAAA and AAAAA respectively. I had not planned on showing each bracket’s Parity Rating again, but it’s interesting to see the effect of Cartersville’s premature exit. As a reminder, the Parity Rating is how often the same team would be crowned champion in consecutive tournaments if the tournament could be replayed an infinite amount of times. For example, last week Class AAAA had a significantly higher chance of the same champion repeating (59.2%) primarily because of Cartersville’s dominance than this week (only 21.9%).
– Eagle’s Landing Christian in the Class A-Private bracket is the only team left that could be considered a heavy favorite.
– Here are the title races with the most to the least parity (lowest to highest chances of the same team repeating in an infinite simulation):

Class Last week’s Parity This week’s Parity
AAAAAA 17.7% 19.2%
AAAA 59.2% 21.9%
A – Public 23.1% 24.1%
AAAAAAA 28.9% 24.3%
AA 26.6% 32.6%
AAA 32.1% 35.6%
AAAAAA 35.8% 38.8%
A – Private 65.6% 66.6%

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.09%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,044 of 2,214 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.32%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.77 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.04

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 11-1 89.28 1 Lee County 11-1 73.82
2 North Gwinnett 11-1 88.47 2 Coffee 8-3 73.79
3 Archer 12-0 86.21 3 Tucker 11-1 73.51
4 Grayson 10-2 85.63 4 Glynn Academy 8-3 71.92
5 Tift County 11-1 84.60 5 Mays 11-1 70.72
6 Brookwood 10-2 83.64 6 Brunswick 7-3 67.01
7 Walton 11-1 81.80 7 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-4 66.55
8 Colquitt County 9-3 81.42 8 Harrison 9-3 61.98
9 McEachern 9-3 79.03 9 Allatoona 9-3 61.58
10 Parkview 9-3 77.54 10 Valdosta 4-7 61.54
11 Mill Creek 8-4 74.84 11 Alpharetta 11-1 61.11
12 Hillgrove 8-4 74.49 12 Richmond Hill 7-3 60.61
13 South Forsyth 10-1 72.51 13 Effingham County 5-6 59.10
14 Milton 9-3 72.45 14 Douglas County 10-2 58.59
15 Norcross 5-6 70.20 15 Dacula 7-5 56.87
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 10-1 92.51 1 Cartersville 11-1 76.95
2 Stockbridge 12-0 78.16 2 Marist 12-0 74.45
3 Rome 12-0 77.74 3 Burke County 12-0 71.23
4 Warner Robins 12-0 74.92 4 Blessed Trinity 10-2 70.31
5 Jones County 11-1 73.56 5 Thomson 10-1 65.33
6 Wayne County 9-2 64.33 6 Cedartown 10-2 61.44
7 Starr’s Mill 11-1 62.43 7 Ridgeland 11-1 61.44
8 Eagle’s Landing 7-5 62.31 8 Jefferson 10-2 60.53
9 Dutchtown 7-4 60.27 9 St. Pius X 7-5 60.06
10 Carrollton 10-2 57.02 10 Mary Persons 10-2 58.82
11 Ware County 5-6 56.94 11 Troup 9-3 57.72
12 Bainbridge 8-4 56.78 12 Woodward Academy 11-1 54.37
13 Flowery Branch 9-3 54.18 13 Americus-Sumter 9-3 53.38
14 Carver (Atlanta) 11-1 54.04 14 West Laurens 6-6 48.97
15 Griffin 9-2 53.10 15 White County 7-4 48.54
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 11-1 78.59 1 Benedictine 12-0 81.67
2 Cedar Grove 12-0 71.64 2 Screven County 11-0 73.09
3 Peach County 11-1 70.09 3 Thomasville 12-0 68.73
4 Calhoun 11-1 60.84 4 Rabun County 12-0 68.25
5 Crisp County 9-2 54.17 5 Brooks County 10-1 67.80
6 Lovett 7-5 51.91 6 Hapeville Charter 11-1 65.24
7 Jenkins 12-0 50.97 7 Toombs County 10-2 58.99
8 Pike County 9-3 47.33 8 Dodge County 10-1 57.75
9 Westminster (Atlanta) 7-5 47.10 9 Heard County 11-1 55.93
10 Liberty County 9-3 46.83 10 Jefferson County 10-2 55.52
11 Pace Academy 5-5 45.53 11 Callaway 11-1 53.42
12 Monroe Area 10-2 44.96 12 Fitzgerald 4-7 50.13
13 Westside (Macon) 8-4 43.95 13 Vidalia 5-5 49.00
14 Dawson County 8-4 42.70 14 Swainsboro 6-4 46.41
15 Cook 6-6 42.22 15 Rockmart 9-3 46.06
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 10-1 52.85 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 11-0 71.82
2 Manchester 11-0 52.85 2 Athens Academy 11-0 55.23
3 Clinch County 9-2 51.74 3 Mount Paran Christian 10-1 46.26
4 Macon County 8-3 46.46 4 Prince Avenue Christian 10-1 42.40
5 Emanuel County Institute 10-1 44.31 5 Calvary Day 10-2 41.70
6 Charlton County 9-2 39.87 6 Wesleyan 8-3 41.68
7 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-2 35.96 7 Stratford Academy 10-1 41.00
8 Lincoln County 7-5 35.23 8 Savannah Country Day 10-2 35.53
9 Dooly County 5-7 33.39 9 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-3 35.08
10 Marion County 9-3 33.05 10 Darlington 8-4 34.24
11 Washington-Wilkes 7-5 31.47 11 Aquinas 7-4 33.39
12 Commerce 8-3 30.70 12 Savannah Christian 6-5 29.55
13 Schley County 8-4 30.70 13 First Presbyterian 8-4 29.17
14 Taylor County 8-3 30.45 14 Whitefield Academy 8-4 28.64
15 Mitchell County 10-1 30.07 15 Tattnall Square 7-4 27.07

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 10-1 92.51 39.29 171
2 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 11-1 89.28 62.25 17
3 [2] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 11-1 88.47 63.58 15
4 [3] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 12-0 86.21 61.42 20
5 [4] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 10-2 85.63 66.23 10
6 [5] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 11-1 84.60 64.04 13
7 [6] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 10-2 83.64 62.35 16
8 [7] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 11-1 81.80 59.63 27
9 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 12-0 81.67 45.17 108
10 [8] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 9-3 81.42 71.11 2
11 [9] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 9-3 79.03 64.76 11
12 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 11-1 78.59 34.66 216
13 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 12-0 78.16 51.07 63
14 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 12-0 77.74 42.91 133
15 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 9-3 77.54 58.61 29
16 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 11-1 76.95 50.88 66
17 [4] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 12-0 74.92 50.42 68
18 [11] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.84 61.99 18
19 [12] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 8-4 74.49 66.51 9
20 [2] Marist 7 – AAAA 12-0 74.45 46.81 94
21 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 11-1 73.82 52.14 55
22 [2] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 8-3 73.79 63.82 14
23 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 11-1 73.56 51.06 64
24 [3] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 11-1 73.51 38.17 183
25 [2] Screven County 4 – AA 11-0 73.09 24.06 317
26 [13] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 10-1 72.51 52.57 52
27 [14] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 9-3 72.45 57.79 32
28 [4] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 8-3 71.92 61.97 19
29 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 11-0 71.82 26.93 294
30 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 12-0 71.64 33.59 229
31 [3] Burke County 3 – AAAA 12-0 71.23 39.03 175
32 [5] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-1 70.72 45.94 101
33 [4] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 10-2 70.31 51.22 62
34 [15] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 5-6 70.20 68.66 4
35 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 11-1 70.09 35.42 211
36 [16] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 9-3 69.82 44.37 116
37 [17] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 7-4 68.84 54.99 39
38 [3] Thomasville 1 – AA 12-0 68.73 37.78 188
39 [18] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 68.65 55.95 36
40 [4] Rabun County 8 – AA 12-0 68.25 22.28 332
41 [5] Brooks County 1 – AA 10-1 67.80 44.22 118
42 [6] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 67.01 54.02 45
43 [7] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-4 66.55 58.49 30
44 [19] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 8-4 65.39 60.43 23
45 [5] Thomson 3 – AAAA 10-1 65.33 33.76 227
46 [6] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 11-1 65.24 32.11 247
47 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 9-2 64.33 46.46 97
48 [20] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 63.42 59.06 28
49 [21] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-5 62.62 61.30 21
50 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 11-1 62.43 44.48 114
51 [22] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.39 57.58 33
52 [8] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 7-5 62.31 55.24 37
53 [8] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 9-3 61.98 49.99 74
54 [9] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 9-3 61.58 50.98 65
55 [10] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 4-7 61.54 68.09 7
56 [6] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 10-2 61.44 43.27 127
57 [7] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 11-1 61.44 32.52 244
58 [11] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 11-1 61.11 39.12 173
59 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 11-1 60.84 31.55 251
60 [23] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 60.84 55.03 38
61 [12] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 60.61 49.45 78
62 [8] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 10-2 60.53 43.09 128
63 [9] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-4 60.27 51.74 57
64 [9] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 7-5 60.06 53.77 46
65 [24] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 59.96 60.16 24
66 [13] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-6 59.10 60.14 25
67 [7] Toombs County 2 – AA 10-2 58.99 38.17 184
68 [25] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 58.86 54.19 44
69 [10] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 10-2 58.82 39.48 169
70 [14] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 58.59 42.74 139
71 [8] Dodge County 3 – AA 10-1 57.75 38.28 182
72 [11] Troup 5 – AAAA 9-3 57.72 38.38 181
73 [10] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 10-2 57.02 42.87 134
74 [11] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-6 56.94 60.62 22
75 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 56.87 48.65 84
76 [26] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 3-8 56.81 68.44 5
77 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 8-4 56.78 45.29 106
78 [27] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 7-4 56.52 50.13 72
79 [28] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-7 56.25 71.95 1
80 [16] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 9-3 56.13 38.86 177
81 [9] Heard County 5 – AA 11-1 55.93 30.69 264
82 [10] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 55.52 27.22 293
83 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 11-0 55.23 16.23 385
84 [12] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-1 54.37 29.00 278
85 [13] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 9-3 54.18 40.19 159
86 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-2 54.17 34.14 223
87 [14] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 11-1 54.04 32.77 241
88 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 6-5 53.80 49.74 76
89 [29] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-8 53.64 67.95 8
90 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 53.64 56.70 34
91 [11] Callaway 5 – AA 11-1 53.42 31.30 254
92 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 9-3 53.38 40.09 161
93 [18] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-4 53.28 46.99 93
94 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 9-2 53.10 39.85 163
95 [1] Irwin County 2 – A 10-1 52.85 30.91 260
96 [2] Manchester 4 – A 11-0 52.85 14.88 392
97 [19] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 52.84 47.49 88
98 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-5 52.62 52.98 50
99 [20] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-4 52.47 45.18 107
100 [31] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 6-5 52.38 46.04 100
101 [32] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-4 52.38 42.81 135
102 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 7-5 51.91 42.77 136
103 [21] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-4 51.82 39.69 166
104 [22] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-5 51.81 48.87 82
105 [3] Clinch County 2 – A 9-2 51.74 29.14 276
106 [23] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 51.53 46.50 95
107 [7] Jenkins 3 – AAA 12-0 50.97 26.74 296
108 [12] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-7 50.13 54.55 43
109 [17] Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-6 49.67 50.64 67
110 [24] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 49.38 42.99 131
111 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 49.21 52.05 56
112 [34] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-6 49.05 56.00 35
113 [13] Vidalia 2 – AA 5-5 49.00 49.52 77
114 [14] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 6-6 48.97 49.02 81
115 [15] White County 7 – AAAA 7-4 48.54 42.76 137
116 [16] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-5 48.43 47.32 90
117 [17] Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-4 48.39 41.64 144
118 [25] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 7-5 48.25 44.87 110
119 [18] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-4 48.16 39.16 172
120 [26] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 47.63 44.63 112
121 [8] Pike County 4 – AAA 9-3 47.33 30.31 267
122 [18] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 9-2 47.23 24.79 309
123 [9] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 7-5 47.10 41.02 151
124 [35] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 47.05 45.54 103
125 [27] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-8 46.98 64.41 12
126 [36] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 46.98 53.48 49
127 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 46.88 53.68 47
128 [10] Liberty County 2 – AAA 9-3 46.83 33.20 235
129 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-4 46.49 41.67 143
130 [4] Macon County 4 – A 8-3 46.46 30.81 263
131 [14] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-4 46.41 42.38 140
132 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 10-1 46.26 22.39 330
133 [20] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 46.25 50.27 71
134 [21] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-7 46.23 54.67 41
135 [15] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 46.06 19.45 354
136 [19] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-5 45.81 47.70 87
137 [11] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-5 45.53 43.97 121
138 [28] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-5 45.47 45.42 104
139 [12] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 10-2 44.96 23.64 321
140 [29] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 9-3 44.91 36.33 201
141 [22] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 5-6 44.88 50.00 73
142 [23] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 44.70 54.69 40
143 [20] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 7-5 44.65 40.39 155
144 [30] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 44.63 43.43 125
145 [5] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 10-1 44.31 18.80 359
146 [31] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-5 44.05 41.27 148
147 [21] Eastside 4 – AAAA 8-3 43.98 30.50 265
148 [13] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 8-4 43.95 34.87 214
149 [16] Bacon County 2 – AA 6-4 43.84 39.09 174
150 [17] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-5 43.67 40.58 152
151 [24] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 9-3 43.62 31.07 259
152 [25] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 43.35 44.46 115
153 [26] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 43.29 41.75 141
154 [22] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 8-3 43.21 32.37 246
155 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-6 42.72 46.14 99
156 [14] Dawson County 7 – AAA 8-4 42.70 31.94 249
157 [27] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 42.51 30.06 269
158 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 10-1 42.40 17.73 371
159 [32] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-7 42.38 50.33 70
160 [28] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 8-4 42.34 32.84 239
161 [15] Cook 1 – AAA 6-6 42.22 42.92 132
162 [24] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 5-5 42.10 41.62 145
163 [25] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-6 41.95 43.02 129
164 [29] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 8-3 41.85 32.79 240
165 [5] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-2 41.70 21.94 336
166 [6] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-3 41.68 27.41 292
167 [38] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 3-7 41.60 52.45 54
168 [18] Washington County 3 – AA 4-7 41.45 49.17 80
169 [19] Dublin 3 – AA 7-5 41.15 34.73 215
170 [33] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 41.03 46.49 96
171 [7] Stratford Academy 7 – A 10-1 41.00 20.59 347
172 [26] Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-6 40.85 44.89 109
173 [16] Bremen 6 – AAA 9-2 40.77 24.20 316
174 [30] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-5 40.70 41.53 146
175 [39] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 40.13 68.35 6
176 [6] Charlton County 2 – A 9-2 39.87 24.31 315
177 [20] Pepperell 7 – AA 8-4 39.77 25.44 304
178 [21] Southwest 3 – AA 5-5 39.56 40.13 160
179 [27] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-5 39.50 37.32 191
180 [31] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 38.97 58.33 31
181 [28] Perry 2 – AAAA 5-5 38.93 38.82 178
182 [22] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-4 38.85 28.93 280
183 [23] Elbert County 8 – AA 9-3 38.83 20.06 349
184 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 38.71 35.80 208
185 [29] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-6 38.24 41.15 150
186 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 9-2 38.07 21.42 340
187 [35] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 4-6 37.94 40.52 153
188 [32] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-5 37.77 34.09 224
189 [33] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 5-6 37.66 39.76 164
190 [36] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 37.55 30.48 266
191 [30] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-6 37.51 40.24 158
192 [37] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 37.31 43.27 126
193 [34] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 36.88 51.60 58
194 [38] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 36.79 47.10 92
195 [18] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 6-5 36.70 31.16 258
196 [35] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-7 36.66 48.36 86
197 [36] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 6-5 36.45 34.91 213
198 [37] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-7 36.00 45.61 102
199 [7] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-2 35.96 18.34 363
200 [31] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-5 35.71 31.23 256
201 [38] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-8 35.56 52.46 53
202 [8] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 10-2 35.53 18.49 360
203 [19] East Hall 7 – AAA 7-5 35.44 28.63 282
204 [39] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 4-7 35.40 43.93 122
205 [32] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 35.38 38.07 185
206 [39] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 35.26 37.28 192
207 [40] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 35.24 48.84 83
208 [8] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-5 35.23 28.25 284
209 [40] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-8 35.10 51.32 61
210 [9] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 8-3 35.08 22.33 331
211 [41] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-9 35.06 53.48 48
212 [42] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 4-7 34.59 43.98 120
213 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 34.48 68.75 3
214 [24] Douglass 6 – AA 7-4 34.29 23.70 320
215 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-4 34.24 24.50 314
216 [9] Dooly County 4 – A 5-7 33.39 34.52 218
217 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 7-4 33.39 24.92 307
218 [40] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 33.18 52.93 51
219 [33] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-8 33.12 40.29 156
220 [10] Marion County 4 – A 9-3 33.05 20.72 346
221 [34] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 32.68 39.93 162
222 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 5-6 32.59 36.23 204
223 [25] Spencer 5 – AA 5-6 32.57 35.89 207
224 [41] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-7 32.34 41.74 142
225 [43] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 32.32 44.58 113
226 [44] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 32.15 47.48 89
227 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-7 32.09 39.62 168
228 [42] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 31.92 27.75 289
229 [45] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.88 39.34 170
230 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 6-6 31.48 33.09 238
231 [11] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 7-5 31.47 27.97 287
232 [46] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 31.46 40.47 154
233 [27] Berrien 1 – AA 4-7 31.30 43.60 124
234 [28] Northeast 3 – AA 5-4 31.01 27.98 286
235 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-7 30.74 45.32 105
236 [12] Commerce 8 – A 8-3 30.70 17.28 375
237 [13] Schley County 4 – A 8-4 30.70 20.77 344
238 [21] Jackson 4 – AAA 5-6 30.46 34.18 222
239 [14] Taylor County 4 – A 8-3 30.45 7.12 400
240 [47] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 2-8 30.42 38.64 179
241 [48] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 30.23 34.99 212
242 [22] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-7 30.23 37.34 190
243 [37] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-6 30.22 37.21 193
244 [15] Mitchell County 1 – A 10-1 30.07 0.47 410
245 [38] Salem 4 – AAAA 6-5 29.76 25.58 302
246 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 29.55 51.39 60
247 [12] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-5 29.55 28.32 283
248 [43] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 2-8 29.49 43.66 123
249 [23] North Murray 6 – AAA 7-4 29.42 20.17 348
250 [16] Telfair County 2 – A 4-7 29.31 33.42 233
251 [24] Hart County 8 – AAA 3-8 29.29 39.71 165
252 [13] First Presbyterian 7 – A 8-4 29.17 19.54 352
253 [44] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 29.09 31.41 253
254 [25] Adairsville 6 – AAA 6-5 28.75 26.62 297
255 [43] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-7 28.74 46.17 98
256 [14] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 8-4 28.64 23.24 323
257 [26] Monroe 1 – AAA 3-7 28.60 37.90 187
258 [27] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-6 28.48 31.28 255
259 [29] Coosa 7 – AA 7-4 28.14 17.88 369
260 [39] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-6 28.13 32.61 243
261 [40] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 28.10 10.17 397
262 [45] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 27.96 42.74 138
263 [17] Trion 6 – A 7-4 27.85 17.89 368
264 [18] Turner County 2 – A 6-5 27.37 27.50 291
265 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-10 27.33 50.34 69
266 [30] Harlem 4 – AA 7-4 27.29 17.93 367
267 [15] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-4 27.07 17.66 374
268 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 26.81 38.97 176
269 [16] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 7-5 26.72 25.21 305
270 [31] Metter 2 – AA 3-7 26.64 41.36 147
271 [32] South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-6 26.46 29.99 271
272 [41] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 26.32 37.39 189
273 [42] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-9 26.27 44.69 111
274 [28] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-6 26.25 36.61 199
275 [29] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 26.12 22.64 329
276 [30] Towers 5 – AAA 4-6 26.04 33.34 234
277 [17] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 7-5 25.89 18.99 357
278 [19] Jenkins County 3 – A 8-4 25.59 18.00 364
279 [46] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-6 25.08 31.50 252
280 [33] Temple 5 – AA 6-5 24.94 19.25 355
281 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-10 24.61 59.88 26
282 [31] Savannah 3 – AAA 6-5 24.47 22.07 335
283 [32] Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-6 24.37 29.78 272
284 [47] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-8 24.23 36.41 200
285 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 6-5 23.93 24.93 306
286 [33] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-4 23.86 17.70 372
287 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 23.74 33.45 230
288 [48] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-7 23.61 34.03 225
289 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 5-6 23.24 24.52 312
290 [51] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 22.57 32.67 242
291 [50] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-7 22.51 34.54 217
292 [34] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-6 22.35 26.53 298
293 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 2-8 22.22 36.25 203
294 [35] Beach 3 – AAA 5-4 22.07 18.44 362
295 [20] Montgomery County 3 – A 6-5 21.99 17.95 365
296 [52] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 21.94 49.31 79
297 [51] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-9 21.63 39.67 167
298 [19] Mount de Sales 7 – A 6-5 21.52 17.95 366
299 [20] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-4 21.42 15.38 389
300 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-3 21.30 3.31 406
301 [43] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-7 21.16 29.75 273
302 [36] Union County 7 – AAA 6-4 20.85 22.23 333
303 [37] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 20.62 35.67 209
304 [52] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-10 20.52 44.05 119
305 [44] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-6 20.42 24.77 310
306 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 6-5 20.34 15.20 390
307 [35] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-5 20.16 22.76 328
308 [53] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-8 20.08 40.28 157
309 [53] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 20.07 37.13 194
310 [36] Chattooga 7 – AA 4-7 20.06 28.94 279
311 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-8 20.01 49.84 75
312 [37] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 19.83 31.59 250
313 [38] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-9 19.79 33.42 232
314 [39] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 19.64 36.97 196
315 [22] Walker 6 – A 5-6 19.43 23.76 319
316 [38] Therrell 6 – AA 3-7 19.25 30.82 262
317 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.24 41.24 149
318 [23] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 5-6 19.09 22.19 334
319 [22] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 3-6 18.25 24.85 308
320 [24] Brookstone 4 – A 5-6 18.17 19.72 351
321 [45] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 17.87 51.60 59
322 [39] Early County 1 – AA 2-8 17.81 44.33 117
323 [40] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-9 17.26 37.10 195
324 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 3-7 16.96 30.87 261
325 [40] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-8 16.60 33.89 226
326 [23] Claxton 3 – A 3-7 16.38 26.01 300
327 [41] Butler 4 – AA 4-7 16.36 25.49 303
328 [55] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 15.94 47.24 91
329 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 15.32 36.26 202
330 [42] Laney 4 – AA 3-7 15.31 34.24 221
331 [43] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-7 14.58 26.82 295
332 [47] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 14.35 36.08 206
333 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-9 13.89 37.99 186
334 [24] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 7-4 13.85 2.89 407
335 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-5 13.81 14.07 393
336 [25] Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-7 13.09 26.03 299
337 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-9 12.81 48.58 85
338 [44] Banks County 8 – AA 5-6 12.63 16.38 381
339 [42] Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-8 12.34 30.12 268
340 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-6 12.26 17.84 370
341 [25] Towns County 8 – A 5-6 11.82 18.89 358
342 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 11.71 32.43 245
343 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-8 11.63 33.43 231
344 [27] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-8 11.52 28.81 281
345 [28] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 11.17 12.99 395
346 [27] Athens Christian 8 – A 4-6 10.51 15.70 387
347 [29] Miller County 1 – A 7-4 10.35 -1.13 412
348 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 4-6 9.98 16.35 382
349 [48] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-9 9.44 34.41 220
350 [43] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-9 9.42 33.70 228
351 [45] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-9 9.38 43.00 130
352 [44] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 8.77 25.62 301
353 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-8 8.67 32.09 248
354 [46] Dade County 7 – AA 4-6 7.98 16.45 379
355 [45] Islands 3 – AAA 3-7 7.98 23.90 318
356 [30] Wilkinson County 7 – A 3-7 7.96 21.35 341
357 [46] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-9 7.93 36.69 198
358 [47] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-7 7.24 21.83 337
359 [48] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-9 5.45 36.09 205
360 [49] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-10 5.42 34.50 219
361 [31] Seminole County 1 – A 5-5 5.15 -0.42 411
362 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-10 3.03 36.83 197
363 [32] Bowdon 6 – A 2-8 2.65 23.30 322
364 [50] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-8 2.55 24.52 313
365 [48] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-5 2.44 6.54 401
366 [33] Hancock Central 7 – A 2-8 2.26 19.02 356
367 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 2.21 29.07 277
368 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 2.00 16.27 384
369 [34] Hawkinsville 4 – A 2-8 1.75 27.92 288
370 [49] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 1.66 23.06 326
371 [35] Portal 3 – A 2-8 1.47 20.99 343
372 [36] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-8 1.28 13.49 394
373 [52] Long County 2 – AAA 0-10 1.17 31.19 257
374 [37] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-6 0.44 5.69 403
375 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 0.39 22.79 327
376 [38] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 0.11 29.73 274
377 [50] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -0.43 15.52 388
378 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-9 -0.44 29.20 275
379 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-8 -1.89 16.56 377
380 [51] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-8 -1.91 16.10 386
381 [52] Monticello 8 – AA 2-9 -2.07 19.48 353
382 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 2-8 -2.15 17.69 373
383 [39] Greene County 7 – A 3-7 -2.27 11.11 396
384 [53] Model 7 – AA 1-9 -4.29 23.18 324
385 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-9 -4.74 21.03 342
386 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -4.89 33.10 236
387 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-9 -4.90 16.68 376
388 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-9 -6.35 24.52 311
389 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -7.38 19.92 350
390 [40] Treutlen 3 – A 1-9 -8.04 16.40 380
391 [41] Greenville 4 – A 2-8 -8.54 21.64 338
392 [33] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-10 -8.84 30.05 270
393 [34] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-8 -9.09 16.54 378
394 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -9.62 54.59 42
395 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-6 -10.86 2.31 408
396 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-9 -11.51 38.51 180
397 [42] Terrell County 1 – A 3-7 -12.58 3.65 405
398 [54] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-8 -12.68 18.46 361
399 [43] Calhoun County 1 – A 3-7 -12.89 3.74 404
400 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 3-7 -13.62 8.92 398
401 [45] Warren County 7 – A 1-9 -13.86 20.77 345
402 [55] Groves 3 – AAA 1-9 -16.13 14.97 391
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -17.55 35.56 210
404 [46] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-7 -18.45 -3.28 415
405 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-10 -20.69 27.65 290
406 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-10 -20.77 21.51 339
407 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -21.79 28.03 285
408 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 1-9 -22.27 5.80 402
409 [47] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-8 -22.45 0.89 409
410 [48] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-10 -24.30 23.11 325
411 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -24.37 33.10 237
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -24.92 16.32 383
413 [49] Crawford County 4 – A 3-7 -25.44 -2.29 414
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-9 -33.58 -1.84 413
415 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-7 -42.14 -26.15 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-10 -46.38 7.42 399
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 2-7 -56.04 -49.04 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -70.55 -30.20 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 89.13 79.35
2 8 – AAAAAAA 83.25 60.48
3 6 – AAAAAAA 80.28 55.28
4 3 – AAAAAAA 79.00 66.87
5 7 – AAAAAAA 78.93 56.26
6 1 – AAAAAA 75.86 65.08
7 8 – AAAAA 75.47 37.69
8 4 – AAAAAAA 74.94 59.57
9 4 – AAAAA 74.30 53.80
10 5 – AAAAAAA 71.78 55.07
11 2 – AAAAAA 71.68 61.00
12 7 – AAAA 70.42 53.19
13 2 – AA 69.20 45.11
14 5 – AAAA 68.97 49.11
15 7 – AAAAA 66.98 45.93
16 1 – AA 66.45 48.40
17 1 – AAAAA 65.16 44.68
18 3 – AAAA 64.88 39.10
19 5 – AAAAAA 64.75 44.88
20 6 – AAAAAA 63.41 48.64
21 7 – AAA 62.20 28.72
22 5 – AAA 60.80 33.78
23 2 – AAAAA 60.27 46.99
24 4 – AAAAAA 59.93 36.15
25 4 – AA 59.44 21.26
26 8 – AAAA 59.09 43.55
27 2 – AAAAAAA 58.51 47.62
28 4 – AAA 58.02 31.14
29 3 – AAAAA 57.58 41.01
30 5 – A 56.31 24.73
31 3 – AAAAAA 56.19 43.57
32 2 – AAAA 55.92 43.75
33 7 – AAAAAA 54.98 35.78
34 8 – AAAAAA 53.84 40.02
35 3 – AA 52.88 37.73
36 6 – AAAA 52.83 30.89
37 5 – AA 52.06 33.17
38 8 – AA 51.99 8.49
39 1 – AAAA 51.97 35.83
40 6 – AA 51.46 27.88
41 2 – A 50.06 28.03
42 6 – AAAAA 49.43 31.83
43 6 – AAA 48.30 21.53
  6-South – AAA 50.85 30.65
  6-North – AAA 27.40 13.44
44 1 – AAA 47.25 29.99
45 4 – A 47.03 17.20
  4-Div B – A 41.44 24.54
  4-Div A – A 40.89 6.34
46 4 – AAAA 46.41 23.79
47 8 – A 44.91 17.03
48 6 – A 43.09 17.47
  6-Div B – A 40.06 19.31
  6-Div A – A 34.43 15.54
49 3 – A 42.74 20.13
  3-Div A – A 38.96 24.21
  3-Div B – A 35.15 15.48
50 3 – AAA 41.88 18.46
51 8 – AAA 41.36 25.81
52 2 – AAA 40.79 25.01
53 5 – AAAAA 40.62 27.77
54 7 – A 40.27 18.23
  7-Div A – A 36.36 20.58
  7-Div B – A 33.26 15.10
55 7 – AA 39.99 15.24
56 1 – A 23.33 -2.19

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 20.94 89.0% 0.134
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 14.71 81.3% 0.206
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 55.96 99.6% 0.218
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 17.76 85.5% 0.224
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 17.67 85.4% 0.226
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 15.35 82.3% 0.231
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 16.11 83.4% 0.253
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 16.61 84.0% 0.256
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 – 14 12.90 78.4% 0.269
09/22 St. Pius X Lanier 33 – 36 13.55 79.5% 0.291
08/24 Dublin Veterans 14 – 21 12.15 77.1% 0.296
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 12.05 76.9% 0.298
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 – 49 13.64 79.6% 0.300
10/20 Glynn Academy Richmond Hill 7 – 12 12.35 77.5% 0.301
09/01 Allatoona Sandy Creek 17 – 23 12.11 77.1% 0.301

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.68 11/17 North Gwinnett Grayson 35 – 28 3.87 59.6%
86.61 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 3.64 59.0%
85.86 10/13 Archer Grayson 6 – 3 1.62 54.0%
84.76 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 2.57 56.4%
84.12 11/24 Brookwood Tift County 0.09 50.2%
84.04 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 – 31 6.67 66.1%
83.44 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 – 45 8.90 70.9%
82.98 11/24 Archer Colquitt County 5.83 64.2%
82.90 10/20 Tift County Colquitt County 38 – 35 2.14 55.3%
82.71 08/25 Brookwood Walton 35 – 42 0.80 52.0%
82.27 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 – 25 3.26 58.1%
81.56 11/17 Walton Colquitt County 21 – 28 1.42 53.5%
81.28 11/24 Buford Stockbridge 13.31 79.1%
81.16 11/17 Lowndes McEachern 31 – 36 11.29 75.6%
80.91 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 7.64 68.2%

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