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Maxwell playoff projections after Round 1

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2017 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.


Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Lowndes #1 (1 – AAAAAAA) 11-0 96.05 78.44 3.90 918,788.57 841,529.62 642,452.68 500,842.79 1.00
Archer #1 (8 – AAAAAAA) 11-0 85.34 82.73 2.61 787,178.29 451,409.75 276,995.75 97,350.15 9.27
North Gwinnett #1 (6 – AAAAAAA) 10-1 85.72 83.24 2.26 521,237.21 479,718.21 166,414.10 93,388.66 9.71
Grayson #2 (8 – AAAAAAA) 10-1 86.05 84.32 2.15 478,762.79 438,958.40 145,654.09 82,896.45 11.06
Walton #1 (4 – AAAAAAA) 11-0 84.80 83.44 2.41 707,236.50 387,946.31 233,200.35 79,362.81 11.60
Tift County #2 (1 – AAAAAAA) 10-1 83.26 83.51 2.40 736,139.68 412,004.11 193,043.07 59,761.67 15.73
Brookwood #1 (7 – AAAAAAA) 9-2 82.16 82.44 2.49 780,913.88 440,583.34 206,115.40 59,482.92 15.81
Colquitt County #3 (1 – AAAAAAA) 8-3 77.16 86.34 1.44 292,763.50 100,010.38 37,904.69 7,753.49 127.97
Parkview #2 (7 – AAAAAAA) 8-3 74.36 85.27 1.70 595,078.47 76,253.65 20,827.34 6,177.69 160.87
Mill Creek #2 (6 – AAAAAAA) 8-3 73.44 86.15 1.30 212,821.71 60,633.56 18,829.47 2,910.99 342.53
Hillgrove #1 (3 – AAAAAAA) 8-3 71.82 84.68 1.37 263,860.32 86,362.67 21,193.49 2,884.18 345.72
McEachern #2 (3 – AAAAAAA) 8-3 72.97 86.47 1.14 81,211.43 40,941.29 10,209.40 2,747.74 362.93
Mountain View #4 (6 – AAAAAAA) 9-2 71.69 86.09 1.46 404,921.53 41,275.43 9,045.09 2,218.76 449.70
Milton #2 (5 – AAAAAAA) 9-2 70.63 85.45 1.29 219,086.12 61,049.88 12,717.78 1,572.86 634.78
Woodstock #2 (4 – AAAAAAA) 7-4 63.55 84.05 1.66 604,679.08 55,423.08 4,021.75 514.26 1,943.54
Marietta #4 (3 – AAAAAAA) 7-4 60.48 84.61 1.42 395,320.92 25,900.30 1,375.55 134.57 7,430.22

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Coffee #2 (1 – AAAAAA) 7-3 72.53 63.50 3.18 821,420.31 660,458.88 457,153.20 242,011.01 3.13
Lee County #1 (1 – AAAAAA) 10-1 73.43 64.67 3.05 939,913.35 547,411.82 347,272.35 220,235.41 3.54
Glynn Academy #1 (2 – AAAAAA) 7-3 71.15 63.58 3.12 893,785.01 703,483.77 332,276.60 193,835.36 4.16
Mays #1 (5 – AAAAAA) 10-1 71.39 65.62 2.77 916,979.69 438,229.41 258,238.71 152,050.36 5.58
Northside (Warner Robins) #3 (1 – AAAAAA) 8-3 67.45 67.02 2.11 516,743.74 354,150.99 166,472.71 67,695.64 13.77
Tucker #1 (4 – AAAAAA) 10-1 65.60 66.04 2.03 483,256.26 331,399.87 157,955.00 57,508.85 16.39
Harrison #1 (6 – AAAAAA) 8-3 59.67 65.95 2.18 851,826.63 249,196.89 56,141.40 18,276.71 53.71
Allatoona #2 (6 – AAAAAA) 8-3 59.97 66.38 1.83 557,247.85 190,560.06 63,200.91 15,741.11 62.53
Douglas County #2 (5 – AAAAAA) 10-1 58.94 66.46 1.73 528,469.17 139,848.24 52,452.22 12,110.04 81.58
Alpharetta #1 (7 – AAAAAA) 10-1 56.62 65.95 1.63 471,530.83 115,449.48 39,363.63 7,613.01 130.35
Dacula #1 (8 – AAAAAA) 7-4 56.49 66.12 1.61 442,752.15 123,889.08 35,639.57 6,823.02 145.56
Evans #1 (3 – AAAAAA) 9-2 56.09 66.70 1.30 178,579.69 84,243.40 27,762.76 5,150.51 193.16
Heritage (Conyers) #3 (3 – AAAAAA) 7-4 51.03 68.92 1.15 106,214.99 34,991.11 3,525.07 624.22 1,600.99
Centennial #2 (7 – AAAAAA) 8-3 48.55 70.77 1.09 83,020.31 8,038.43 1,126.62 163.76 6,105.35
Grovetown #2 (3 – AAAAAA) 7-4 47.11 70.74 1.07 60,086.65 6,320.34 790.30 102.04 9,799.30
Winder-Barrow #2 (8 – AAAAAA) 9-2 43.36 68.58 1.16 148,173.37 12,328.23 628.95 58.94 16,965.40

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford #1 (8 – AAAAA) 9-1 90.61 70.18 3.96 993,700.72 764,160.60 651,360.04 553,660.01 0.81
Warner Robins #1 (1 – AAAAA) 11-0 76.06 68.93 3.33 837,670.96 777,824.54 554,273.19 162,683.67 5.15
Stockbridge #1 (4 – AAAAA) 11-0 79.44 76.28 2.42 930,020.22 233,616.02 154,880.85 101,945.97 8.81
Rome #1 (7 – AAAAA) 11-0 74.97 71.58 3.06 971,694.90 808,593.21 182,247.30 101,694.05 8.83
Jones County #2 (4 – AAAAA) 10-1 71.95 72.10 2.58 665,521.87 579,166.61 272,847.86 60,965.96 15.40
Wayne County #1 (2 – AAAAA) 9-1 63.89 73.08 1.69 334,478.13 258,258.13 85,415.97 10,369.43 95.44
Eagle’s Landing #3 (4 – AAAAA) 7-4 60.83 74.18 1.32 162,329.04 113,994.20 38,832.45 3,659.01 272.30
Starr’s Mill #1 (3 – AAAAA) 10-1 59.66 75.75 1.65 538,921.10 106,576.66 6,711.89 1,582.85 630.77
Flowery Branch #2 (8 – AAAAA) 9-2 54.59 72.97 1.76 621,989.21 116,027.91 20,435.65 1,116.50 894.66
Carrollton #2 (7 – AAAAA) 9-2 53.54 72.69 1.85 731,648.01 94,180.79 21,099.69 1,048.50 952.74
Bainbridge #2 (1 – AAAAA) 8-3 59.28 76.81 1.55 461,078.90 81,244.97 4,438.45 1,019.28 980.09
Carver (Atlanta) #1 (6 – AAAAA) 10-1 48.43 72.64 1.43 378,010.79 46,547.36 5,641.38 174.96 5,714.52
Ware County #2 (2 – AAAAA) 5-5 54.75 81.13 1.07 69,979.78 2,021.80 317.66 52.31 19,114.15
Arabia Mountain #1 (5 – AAAAA) 9-2 42.33 72.56 1.28 268,351.99 14,000.47 1,453.81 25.25 39,596.41
Southwest DeKalb #2 (5 – AAAAA) 8-3 40.79 76.89 1.03 28,305.10 3,585.15 33.71 1.72 582,596.19
Maynard Jackson #2 (6 – AAAAA) 9-2 41.18 80.92 1.01 6,299.28 201.57 10.10 0.53 1,877,054.67

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville #1 (5 – AAAA) 11-0 92.19 64.40 4.47 958,987.46 920,231.29 825,596.45 760,665.09 0.31
Ridgeland #1 (6 – AAAA) 11-0 73.11 70.73 2.83 874,352.14 740,987.22 133,553.66 85,814.72 10.65
Burke County #1 (3 – AAAA) 11-0 70.25 69.68 2.91 909,537.43 530,548.70 399,813.76 67,790.72 13.75
Marist #1 (7 – AAAA) 11-0 68.00 72.59 2.06 564,390.45 273,314.49 194,668.69 28,252.31 34.40
Troup #3 (5 – AAAA) 9-2 64.48 70.33 2.52 716,263.07 573,282.33 211,120.58 23,771.96 41.07
Cedartown #2 (5 – AAAA) 10-1 66.59 73.77 1.76 435,609.55 185,006.12 125,249.79 16,445.46 59.81
Thomson #2 (3 – AAAA) 9-1 63.62 75.31 1.78 702,869.54 48,422.51 17,336.94 7,274.97 136.46
Mary Persons #1 (2 – AAAA) 9-2 57.75 73.36 2.01 809,073.31 186,254.83 11,589.99 3,396.06 293.46
Blessed Trinity #2 (7 – AAAA) 9-2 61.85 76.96 1.07 41,012.54 21,240.23 6,875.29 2,607.77 382.47
St. Pius X #1 (8 – AAAA) 6-5 54.04 71.10 1.50 283,736.93 177,909.00 34,541.70 1,703.07 586.17
Jefferson #2 (8 – AAAA) 9-2 54.89 75.56 1.19 125,647.86 58,954.37 2,686.43 645.60 1,547.94
Woodward Academy #1 (4 – AAAA) 10-1 49.20 70.64 1.66 518,491.56 128,972.90 16,827.65 546.74 1,828.04
West Laurens #2 (2 – AAAA) 6-5 49.64 71.17 1.62 481,508.44 119,835.77 14,677.07 495.69 2,016.41
Americus-Sumter #1 (1 – AAAA) 9-2 53.83 75.27 1.31 297,130.46 10,105.97 2,112.90 470.17 2,125.89
Cairo #2 (1 – AAAA) 8-3 48.35 73.87 1.10 90,462.57 11,130.69 3,100.76 93.45 10,700.45
Baldwin #3 (3 – AAAA) 7-4 44.49 75.28 1.21 190,926.69 13,803.58 248.35 26.22 38,136.43

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian #1 (7 – AAA) 10-1 77.60 59.53 3.95 948,485.34 907,536.19 621,465.79 477,456.27 1.09
Peach County #1 (4 – AAA) 10-1 70.79 59.83 3.51 985,370.82 932,027.65 362,620.51 229,119.85 3.36
Cedar Grove #1 (5 – AAA) 11-0 68.91 61.29 3.35 950,499.27 714,037.37 503,464.43 182,336.02 4.48
Calhoun #1 (6 – AAA) 10-1 62.97 61.18 3.10 898,256.43 787,294.25 337,127.07 82,181.84 11.17
Crisp County #1 (1 – AAA) 9-1 59.45 64.41 2.28 859,482.69 266,002.86 133,897.17 25,106.53 38.83
Jenkins #1 (3 – AAA) 11-0 48.52 66.80 1.74 684,385.54 51,270.64 6,912.33 1,186.88 841.55
Lovett #2 (5 – AAA) 7-4 49.65 68.64 1.08 51,514.66 28,693.56 3,903.39 731.63 1,365.80
Westside (Macon) #2 (4 – AAA) 8-3 45.48 64.92 1.67 554,038.12 99,165.10 11,528.89 668.88 1,494.03
Westminster (Atlanta) #3 (5 – AAA) 6-5 45.02 67.26 1.85 789,680.40 58,493.04 3,911.40 506.70 1,972.56
Liberty County #1 (2 – AAA) 8-3 42.13 64.36 1.52 445,961.88 68,082.13 6,581.81 282.33 3,540.94
Monroe Area #2 (8 – AAA) 10-1 42.37 65.41 1.15 101,743.57 45,458.52 4,072.36 178.54 5,599.90
Cook #2 (1 – AAA) 6-5 41.96 68.13 1.33 315,614.46 12,499.60 971.95 97.33 10,273.20
Pike County #3 (4 – AAA) 8-3 42.52 67.19 1.15 140,517.31 11,589.52 2,027.10 90.09 11,098.66
Dawson County #2 (7 – AAA) 8-3 40.54 67.18 1.06 49,500.73 8,370.24 1,301.17 48.26 20,719.08
East Hall #4 (7 – AAA) 7-4 32.97 67.77 1.22 210,319.60 5,797.40 143.45 6.44 155,325.30
Pierce County #2 (2 – AAA) 5-5 29.87 67.68 1.02 14,629.18 3,681.92 71.18 2.39 417,921.14

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine #1 (2 – AA) 11-0 78.97 62.87 3.72 925,600.95 749,616.30 589,334.53 454,927.40 1.20
Thomasville #1 (1 – AA) 11-0 68.18 62.37 3.14 946,748.12 779,983.46 264,898.86 143,711.04 5.96
Screven County #1 (4 – AA) 10-0 70.11 65.14 2.73 786,339.45 469,796.17 335,050.06 138,863.98 6.20
Rabun County #1 (8 – AA) 11-0 66.58 63.44 2.84 974,394.27 466,306.97 298,602.37 101,498.12 8.85
Brooks County #2 (1 – AA) 9-1 65.96 65.18 2.42 618,691.97 508,794.64 218,702.19 71,619.84 12.96
Hapeville Charter #1 (6 – AA) 10-1 65.13 66.06 2.34 944,955.71 228,480.70 114,098.70 53,541.55 17.68
Dodge County #1 (3 – AA) 10-0 59.94 65.60 1.77 381,308.03 282,406.89 90,373.47 19,884.38 49.29
Heard County #1 (5 – AA) 10-1 54.57 65.86 2.03 810,766.75 192,056.02 25,143.39 6,117.24 162.47
Toombs County #2 (2 – AA) 10-1 58.26 69.00 1.31 213,660.55 63,183.77 26,808.19 5,221.88 190.50
Callaway #2 (5 – AA) 10-1 51.47 65.80 1.69 547,605.36 122,029.62 18,944.29 2,164.25 461.05
Jefferson County #2 (4 – AA) 10-1 54.94 70.62 1.10 74,399.05 20,540.67 5,417.38 1,353.67 737.73
Rockmart #1 (7 – AA) 9-2 48.38 65.21 1.55 452,394.64 86,768.85 11,479.66 1,009.81 989.28
Pepperell #2 (7 – AA) 8-3 41.20 67.87 1.21 189,233.25 15,310.83 567.18 46.16 21,661.85
Dublin #2 (3 – AA) 7-4 40.58 67.95 1.07 53,251.88 12,649.69 442.51 34.07 29,351.32
Elbert County #2 (8 – AA) 9-2 37.88 70.04 1.06 55,044.29 1,362.33 97.45 5.87 170,368.49
B.E.S.T. Academy #2 (6 – AA) 6-5 31.37 68.37 1.03 25,605.73 713.10 39.76 0.73 1,372,745.89

Class A-Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Manchester #1 (4 – A) 10-0 52.67 40.01 3.54 902,031.20 791,112.34 519,875.42 323,668.54 2.09
Irwin County #2 (2 – A) 9-1 51.95 42.62 3.11 852,959.00 558,176.37 453,300.61 243,815.37 3.10
Clinch County #5 (2 – A) 8-2 50.65 41.49 3.20 848,386.27 749,606.68 383,752.80 221,431.12 3.52
Macon County #7 (4 – A) 7-3 47.40 43.05 2.76 954,911.87 404,074.91 281,896.39 121,435.15 7.23
Emanuel County Institute #3 (3 – A) 9-1 40.89 42.02 2.67 863,421.09 582,013.36 175,570.28 51,315.79 18.49
Charlton County #11 (2 – A) 8-2 36.11 44.92 1.82 544,134.84 226,118.15 44,645.93 9,382.84 105.58
Marion County #9 (4 – A) 9-2 35.50 46.04 1.68 546,614.24 101,238.18 27,414.16 6,852.51 144.93
Schley County #13 (4 – A) 8-3 33.31 45.21 1.85 688,475.13 131,103.33 24,673.48 5,270.25 188.74
Commerce #6 (8 – A) 8-2 33.16 44.66 1.65 455,865.16 160,872.27 27,570.98 4,651.37 213.99
Dooly County #21 (4 – A) 5-6 34.61 46.77 1.26 151,613.73 86,305.61 17,559.67 4,121.64 241.62
Mount Zion (Carroll) #8 (6 – A) 8-2 32.45 46.13 1.54 453,385.76 67,452.17 15,114.86 3,028.69 329.18
Lincoln County #15 (7 – A) 7-4 35.55 48.30 1.20 147,041.00 35,545.79 14,609.67 2,947.58 338.26
Washington-Wilkes #16 (7 – A) 7-4 31.65 47.12 1.15 97,968.80 40,197.31 8,243.48 1,554.86 642.14
Mitchell County #4 (1 – A) 9-1 24.20 45.11 1.35 311,524.87 32,984.38 3,366.13 346.35 2,886.27
Jenkins County #14 (3 – A) 8-3 23.63 45.56 1.17 136,578.91 30,996.21 2,137.11 165.28 6,049.39
Pelham #10 (1 – A) 9-2 18.05 47.63 1.05 45,088.13 2,202.93 269.03 12.66 78,993.85

Class A-Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian #1 (5 – A) 10-0 71.70 40.72 4.62 990,038.34 930,856.61 900,539.24 798,698.99 0.25
Athens Academy #2 (8 – A) 10-0 54.18 47.95 3.51 932,642.02 814,159.15 628,852.68 130,725.00 6.65
Mount Paran Christian #3 (6 – A) 9-1 45.46 51.46 2.70 864,244.47 597,854.73 214,751.99 25,197.99 38.69
Wesleyan #8 (5 – A) 8-2 47.07 54.56 1.88 760,787.17 59,782.28 40,758.50 17,630.75 55.72
Prince Avenue Christian #5 (8 – A) 9-1 41.90 51.92 2.39 797,541.67 538,216.31 37,992.60 12,244.87 80.67
Stratford Academy #6 (7 – A) 9-1 40.47 52.72 2.25 816,977.13 335,563.94 90,404.53 7,476.49 132.75
Mount Pisgah Christian #7 (6 – A) 8-2 37.86 53.40 1.87 693,811.63 129,926.39 47,099.08 3,216.08 309.94
Aquinas #4 (7 – A) 7-3 35.88 52.46 1.99 675,682.43 298,955.51 13,037.05 2,804.98 355.51
Calvary Day #9 (3 – A) 9-2 36.68 56.30 1.25 239,212.83 7,963.99 3,550.84 808.98 1,235.13
Savannah Country Day #10 (3 – A) 9-2 30.86 54.19 1.35 306,188.37 34,512.06 7,873.71 311.07 3,213.76
Darlington #13 (6 – A) 7-4 29.72 53.65 1.41 324,317.57 85,312.94 2,017.64 270.61 3,694.29
Whitefield Academy #12 (6 – A) 8-3 29.37 53.74 1.28 202,458.33 77,515.24 1,776.70 231.63 4,316.30
First Presbyterian #15 (7 – A) 8-3 29.08 54.41 1.09 67,357.98 21,402.40 4,239.58 144.59 6,915.31
Mount Vernon Presbyterian #14 (5 – A) 7-4 28.13 54.25 1.18 135,755.53 36,838.04 3,963.51 124.81 8,011.30
Fellowship Christian #22 (6 – A) 7-4 26.69 54.20 1.22 183,022.87 29,743.29 2,814.93 78.42 12,751.21
Savannah Christian #16 (3 – A) 6-4 26.89 56.26 1.01 9,961.66 1,397.13 327.42 34.76 28,768.54

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