Maxwell Round One Summary: Favored teams roll

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– The opening round was smooth sailing for the favorites as the computer picked 98 of the 112 first round games correctly (87.5%), including 16-0 in AA and 15-1 in both AAAAA and AAAA.
– Although all the favorites hung in there, there are still two underdogs who advanced to the second round that each have less than 1 in a million chance — Maynard Jackson in AAAAA (1,877,054.67 to 1 odds) and B.E.S.T. Academy in AA (1,372,745.89 to 1).
– One way to measure the parity of a classification’s playoffs would be to calculate how often the same team would be crowned champion in consecutive tournaments if the tournament could be replayed an infinite amount of times. For example, Class AAAA would have a higher chance of the same champion repeating primarily because of Cartersville’s dominance, thus less parity. Using this measure, here are the title races with the most to the least parity (lowest to highest chances of the same team repeating in an infinite simulation):

Class Parity
AAAAAA 17.7%
A – Public 23.1%
AA 26.6%
AAAAAAA 28.9%
AAA 32.1%
AAAAA 35.8%
AAAA 59.2%
A – Private 65.6%

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,998 of 2,150 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.93%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.79 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.18

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 11-0 96.05 1 Lee County 10-1 73.43
2 Grayson 10-1 86.05 2 Coffee 7-3 72.53
3 North Gwinnett 10-1 85.72 3 Mays 10-1 71.39
4 Archer 11-0 85.34 4 Glynn Academy 7-3 71.15
5 Walton 11-0 84.80 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-3 67.45
6 Tift County 10-1 83.26 6 Brunswick 7-3 66.07
7 Brookwood 9-2 82.16 7 Tucker 10-1 65.60
8 Colquitt County 8-3 77.16 8 Valdosta 4-7 60.81
9 Parkview 8-3 74.36 9 Allatoona 8-3 59.97
10 Mill Creek 8-3 73.44 10 Harrison 8-3 59.67
11 McEachern 8-3 72.97 11 Richmond Hill 7-3 59.36
12 Hillgrove 8-3 71.82 12 Douglas County 10-1 58.94
13 South Forsyth 10-1 71.69 13 Effingham County 5-6 57.44
14 Mountain View 9-2 71.69 14 Alpharetta 10-1 56.62
15 Milton 9-2 70.63 15 Dacula 7-4 56.49
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 9-1 90.61 1 Cartersville 11-0 92.19
2 Stockbridge 11-0 79.44 2 Ridgeland 11-0 73.11
3 Warner Robins 11-0 76.06 3 Burke County 11-0 70.25
4 Rome 11-0 74.97 4 Marist 11-0 68.00
5 Jones County 10-1 71.95 5 Cedartown 10-1 66.59
6 Wayne County 9-1 63.89 6 Troup 9-2 64.48
7 Eagle’s Landing 7-4 60.83 7 Thomson 9-1 63.62
8 Starr’s Mill 10-1 59.66 8 Blessed Trinity 9-2 61.85
9 Bainbridge 8-3 59.28 9 Mary Persons 9-2 57.75
10 Dutchtown 7-4 58.64 10 Jefferson 9-2 54.89
11 Ware County 5-5 54.75 11 St. Pius X 6-5 54.04
12 Flowery Branch 9-2 54.59 12 Americus-Sumter 9-2 53.83
13 Carrollton 9-2 53.54 13 Heritage (Ringgold) 9-2 50.79
14 Griffin 9-2 51.98 14 Sandy Creek 5-5 50.04
15 Ola 5-5 50.83 15 West Laurens 6-5 49.64
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 10-1 77.60 1 Benedictine 11-0 78.97
2 Peach County 10-1 70.79 2 Screven County 10-0 70.11
3 Cedar Grove 11-0 68.91 3 Thomasville 11-0 68.18
4 Calhoun 10-1 62.97 4 Rabun County 11-0 66.58
5 Crisp County 9-1 59.45 5 Brooks County 9-1 65.96
6 Lovett 7-4 49.65 6 Hapeville Charter 10-1 65.13
7 Jenkins 11-0 48.52 7 Dodge County 10-0 59.94
8 Westside (Macon) 8-3 45.48 8 Toombs County 10-1 58.26
9 Westminster (Atlanta) 6-5 45.02 9 Jefferson County 10-1 54.94
10 Pace Academy 5-5 44.17 10 Heard County 10-1 54.57
11 Pike County 8-3 42.52 11 Callaway 10-1 51.47
12 Monroe Area 10-1 42.37 12 Fitzgerald 4-7 49.47
13 Liberty County 8-3 42.13 13 Rockmart 9-2 48.38
14 Cook 6-5 41.96 14 Vidalia 5-5 48.33
15 Dawson County 8-3 40.54 15 Swainsboro 6-4 45.12
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Manchester 10-0 52.67 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 10-0 71.70
2 Irwin County 9-1 51.95 2 Athens Academy 10-0 54.18
3 Clinch County 8-2 50.65 3 Wesleyan 8-2 47.07
4 Macon County 7-3 47.40 4 Mount Paran Christian 9-1 45.46
5 Emanuel County Institute 9-1 40.89 5 Prince Avenue Christian 9-1 41.90
6 Charlton County 8-2 36.11 6 Stratford Academy 9-1 40.47
7 Lincoln County 7-4 35.55 7 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-2 37.86
8 Marion County 9-2 35.50 8 Calvary Day 9-2 36.68
9 Dooly County 5-6 34.61 9 Aquinas 7-3 35.88
10 Schley County 8-3 33.31 10 Savannah Country Day 9-2 30.86
11 Commerce 8-2 33.16 11 Darlington 7-4 29.72
12 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-2 32.45 12 Whitefield Academy 8-3 29.37
13 Washington-Wilkes 7-4 31.65 13 First Presbyterian 8-3 29.08
14 Taylor County 8-3 31.53 14 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 7-4 28.13
15 Telfair County 4-7 28.51 15 Savannah Christian 6-4 26.89

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 11-0 96.05 58.20 23
2 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 11-0 92.19 50.38 57
3 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 9-1 90.61 36.82 176
4 [2] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 10-1 86.05 59.71 16
5 [3] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 10-1 85.72 60.22 14
6 [4] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 11-0 85.34 58.35 22
7 [5] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 11-0 84.80 56.07 31
8 [6] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 10-1 83.26 61.23 13
9 [7] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 9-2 82.16 59.17 17
10 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 11-0 79.44 48.99 66
11 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 11-0 78.97 42.27 116
12 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 10-1 77.60 30.27 249
13 [8] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-3 77.16 67.25 5
14 [3] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 11-0 76.06 49.04 65
15 [4] Rome 7 – AAAAA 11-0 74.97 41.07 131
16 [9] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 8-3 74.36 55.40 32
17 [10] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 8-3 73.44 57.90 24
18 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 10-1 73.43 52.65 46
19 [2] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 11-0 73.11 30.64 244
20 [11] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 72.97 60.20 15
21 [2] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 72.53 63.84 10
22 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 10-1 71.95 48.41 73
23 [12] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 71.82 61.89 11
24 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 10-0 71.70 27.04 281
25 [13] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 10-1 71.69 51.17 54
26 [14] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 9-2 71.69 38.93 153
27 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 10-1 71.39 44.13 99
28 [4] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 71.15 61.79 12
29 [2] Peach County 4 – AAA 10-1 70.79 34.93 202
30 [15] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 9-2 70.63 53.74 35
31 [3] Burke County 3 – AAAA 11-0 70.25 36.81 177
32 [2] Screven County 4 – AA 10-0 70.11 19.62 344
33 [3] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 11-0 68.91 30.97 240
34 [16] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 5-6 68.25 66.66 7
35 [3] Thomasville 1 – AA 11-0 68.18 36.78 178
36 [4] Marist 7 – AAAA 11-0 68.00 41.42 127
37 [17] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 7-4 67.79 53.53 37
38 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-3 67.45 56.08 30
39 [5] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 10-1 66.59 42.39 114
40 [4] Rabun County 8 – AA 11-0 66.58 20.16 337
41 [6] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 66.07 52.89 44
42 [18] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 8-3 66.04 53.69 36
43 [5] Brooks County 1 – AA 9-1 65.96 42.08 119
44 [7] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 10-1 65.60 34.15 208
45 [6] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 10-1 65.13 31.25 237
46 [6] Troup 5 – AAAA 9-2 64.48 36.69 180
47 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 9-1 63.89 42.60 111
48 [7] Thomson 3 – AAAA 9-1 63.62 28.95 262
49 [19] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-4 63.55 56.87 27
50 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 10-1 62.97 29.28 256
51 [8] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 9-2 61.85 45.52 92
52 [20] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 61.22 56.43 29
53 [7] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 7-4 60.83 51.97 48
54 [8] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 4-7 60.81 67.46 4
55 [21] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 7-4 60.48 56.77 28
56 [9] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 8-3 59.97 49.27 63
57 [7] Dodge County 3 – AA 10-0 59.94 35.97 189
58 [22] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-5 59.79 58.57 18
59 [10] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 8-3 59.67 48.91 68
60 [8] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 10-1 59.66 42.62 110
61 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-1 59.45 32.00 230
62 [23] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 59.41 53.28 41
63 [11] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 59.36 47.90 80
64 [9] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 8-3 59.28 41.60 124
65 [12] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 10-1 58.94 39.43 149
66 [10] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-4 58.64 50.12 59
67 [24] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 58.30 58.44 20
68 [8] Toombs County 2 – AA 10-1 58.26 33.77 210
69 [9] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 9-2 57.75 38.60 157
70 [25] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 57.71 53.02 43
71 [13] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-6 57.44 58.52 19
72 [14] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 10-1 56.62 34.97 201
73 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 56.49 45.51 93
74 [16] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 9-2 56.09 35.37 197
75 [26] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 3-8 55.56 67.22 6
76 [9] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-1 54.94 23.58 307
77 [10] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 9-2 54.89 38.43 159
78 [27] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-7 54.85 70.14 1
79 [11] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-5 54.75 56.98 26
80 [12] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 9-2 54.59 36.07 187
81 [10] Heard County 5 – AA 10-1 54.57 28.91 263
82 [28] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 7-4 54.34 48.12 75
83 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 10-0 54.18 14.86 386
84 [11] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 6-5 54.04 49.44 62
85 [12] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 9-2 53.83 38.30 161
86 [13] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 9-2 53.54 40.84 134
87 [1] Manchester 4 – A 10-0 52.67 11.89 394
88 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 6-5 52.46 48.36 74
89 [18] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-4 52.28 46.04 89
90 [29] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 52.23 55.27 33
91 [30] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-8 52.13 66.62 8
92 [14] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 9-2 51.98 38.89 154
93 [2] Irwin County 2 – A 9-1 51.95 29.29 255
94 [11] Callaway 5 – AA 10-1 51.47 29.25 257
95 [19] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.35 43.95 101
96 [20] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.03 43.92 102
97 [15] Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-5 50.83 51.11 55
98 [13] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 9-2 50.79 25.47 294
99 [31] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-4 50.75 41.28 129
100 [3] Clinch County 2 – A 8-2 50.65 27.24 279
101 [21] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-5 50.17 47.13 83
102 [14] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-5 50.04 48.62 71
103 [32] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 6-5 49.83 43.65 103
104 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 7-4 49.65 37.82 166
105 [15] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 6-5 49.64 47.97 78
106 [22] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 49.49 44.40 96
107 [12] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-7 49.47 53.90 34
108 [16] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 10-1 49.20 25.19 295
109 [23] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 48.55 35.13 199
110 [7] Jenkins 3 – AAA 11-0 48.52 22.79 314
111 [16] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 10-1 48.43 29.04 260
112 [13] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-2 48.38 15.49 379
113 [17] Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-3 48.35 39.24 152
114 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 5-5 48.33 48.98 67
115 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 48.20 51.01 56
116 [18] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-5 48.05 49.89 61
117 [17] Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-6 47.76 48.55 72
118 [4] Macon County 4 – A 7-3 47.40 33.71 211
119 [24] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 47.16 41.04 132
120 [25] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 47.11 41.34 128
121 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-2 47.07 25.58 292
122 [34] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-6 46.47 53.34 40
123 [26] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 46.46 43.48 105
124 [27] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-8 46.41 64.01 9
125 [18] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-4 46.15 37.01 173
126 [8] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 8-3 45.48 32.06 227
127 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 9-1 45.46 22.23 320
128 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-4 45.42 40.55 136
129 [35] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 45.16 43.61 104
130 [15] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-4 45.12 40.98 133
131 [9] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 6-5 45.02 40.03 142
132 [19] White County 7 – AAAA 7-4 45.01 39.77 144
133 [36] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 44.83 51.24 52
134 [20] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-7 44.82 53.37 39
135 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 4-7 44.69 51.47 51
136 [20] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 7-4 44.49 36.50 182
137 [10] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-5 44.17 42.53 113
138 [21] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 44.16 48.09 76
139 [28] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 9-2 43.36 32.13 226
140 [29] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-5 43.33 43.25 106
141 [21] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 8-3 43.22 32.20 224
142 [22] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 43.19 53.43 38
143 [23] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 5-6 42.86 47.90 79
144 [16] Bacon County 2 – AA 6-4 42.56 37.71 167
145 [30] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 42.54 41.13 130
146 [11] Pike County 4 – AAA 8-3 42.52 26.69 285
147 [17] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-5 42.51 39.37 150
148 [12] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 10-1 42.37 19.33 346
149 [24] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-2 42.33 26.09 288
150 [31] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-5 42.30 39.58 146
151 [13] Liberty County 2 – AAA 8-3 42.13 29.63 251
152 [14] Cook 1 – AAA 6-5 41.96 40.63 135
153 [5] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 9-1 41.90 16.53 368
154 [22] Eastside 4 – AAAA 8-3 41.89 28.64 267
155 [25] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 41.52 40.05 140
156 [26] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 41.42 42.37 115
157 [18] Washington County 3 – AA 4-7 41.36 49.04 64
158 [19] Pepperell 7 – AA 8-3 41.20 22.01 325
159 [27] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 9-2 41.18 26.78 284
160 [5] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 9-1 40.89 15.57 378
161 [28] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 8-3 40.79 28.57 269
162 [20] Dublin 3 – AA 7-4 40.58 31.76 231
163 [15] Dawson County 7 – AAA 8-3 40.54 27.38 278
164 [6] Stratford Academy 7 – A 9-1 40.47 19.43 345
165 [16] Bremen 6 – AAA 9-2 40.39 23.93 303
166 [23] Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-6 40.33 44.33 97
167 [38] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 3-7 40.05 51.23 53
168 [24] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-6 39.74 42.99 107
169 [32] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-7 39.71 47.38 82
170 [29] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 8-3 39.71 30.82 242
171 [21] Southwest 3 – AA 5-5 39.59 40.19 138
172 [25] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-5 39.48 37.28 170
173 [33] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 39.39 44.79 95
174 [26] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 5-5 39.31 38.88 155
175 [27] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-6 38.98 40.04 141
176 [39] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 38.96 67.52 3
177 [28] Perry 2 – AAAA 5-5 38.67 38.53 158
178 [22] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-4 38.64 28.58 268
179 [30] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-5 38.52 39.36 151
180 [29] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-6 38.23 41.42 126
181 [23] Elbert County 8 – AA 9-2 37.88 15.85 375
182 [7] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 8-2 37.86 20.69 335
183 [31] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 5-6 37.36 39.46 148
184 [32] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 37.29 57.14 25
185 [30] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-5 37.14 32.25 223
186 [31] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-6 37.06 39.74 145
187 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 36.68 33.88 209
188 [8] Calvary Day 3 – A 9-2 36.68 17.84 354
189 [33] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-5 36.37 32.61 218
190 [35] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 36.29 29.29 254
191 [6] Charlton County 2 – A 8-2 36.11 21.76 330
192 [32] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 36.06 38.87 156
193 [9] Aquinas 7 – A 7-3 35.88 22.72 315
194 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 9-2 35.79 19.62 343
195 [36] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 4-6 35.61 38.10 164
196 [37] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 35.60 41.60 125
197 [7] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-4 35.55 25.49 293
198 [8] Marion County 4 – A 9-2 35.50 18.76 351
199 [38] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-7 35.40 45.84 90
200 [34] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-8 35.40 52.60 47
201 [35] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-7 35.33 50.16 58
202 [9] Dooly County 4 – A 5-6 34.61 33.58 214
203 [36] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 6-5 34.41 32.89 217
204 [37] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-7 34.39 44.04 100
205 [38] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-7 34.31 46.10 88
206 [39] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 34.19 36.25 186
207 [18] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 6-5 34.02 28.71 265
208 [39] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-9 33.68 51.94 49
209 [24] Douglass 6 – AA 7-4 33.58 22.98 312
210 [40] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 33.46 46.97 84
211 [10] Schley County 4 – A 8-3 33.31 19.82 342
212 [11] Commerce 8 – A 8-2 33.16 14.63 387
213 [41] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 4-7 33.13 41.68 123
214 [40] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 32.99 68.16 2
215 [41] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-8 32.99 48.89 69
216 [19] East Hall 7 – AAA 7-4 32.97 24.41 300
217 [42] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 4-7 32.91 42.17 118
218 [33] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-8 32.89 40.14 139
219 [12] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 8-2 32.45 15.22 382
220 [25] Spencer 5 – AA 5-6 32.33 35.75 193
221 [40] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 31.77 51.56 50
222 [13] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 7-4 31.65 24.89 297
223 [14] Taylor County 4 – A 8-3 31.53 6.87 400
224 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 6-5 31.37 30.29 248
225 [34] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-7 31.02 46.87 85
226 [41] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-7 30.87 40.29 137
227 [27] Northeast 3 – AA 5-4 30.87 27.79 274
228 [10] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 9-2 30.86 14.51 388
229 [43] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 30.71 42.74 108
230 [44] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-7 30.49 37.92 165
231 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 4-7 30.39 42.68 109
232 [45] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-8 30.28 45.62 91
233 [35] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 30.16 37.25 171
234 [42] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 30.06 25.88 290
235 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 5-5 29.87 30.63 245
236 [11] Darlington 6 – A 7-4 29.72 22.15 324
237 [36] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-7 29.54 36.77 179
238 [37] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 29.41 10.16 397
239 [21] Jackson 4 – AAA 5-6 29.41 33.03 216
240 [12] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 8-3 29.37 20.99 332
241 [46] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 29.24 38.18 162
242 [22] North Murray 6 – AAA 7-4 29.22 19.95 340
243 [13] First Presbyterian 7 – A 8-3 29.08 16.49 369
244 [38] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-6 28.97 35.79 192
245 [23] Adairsville 6 – AAA 6-5 28.62 26.52 286
246 [47] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 28.58 33.33 215
247 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 4-7 28.51 32.54 219
248 [24] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-7 28.46 35.60 194
249 [14] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 7-4 28.13 24.00 302
250 [48] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 2-8 28.10 36.25 185
251 [39] Salem 4 – AAAA 6-5 27.99 23.90 304
252 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-9 27.90 49.99 60
253 [43] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 27.79 42.57 112
254 [25] Monroe 1 – AAA 3-7 27.76 37.48 168
255 [29] Coosa 7 – AA 7-4 27.72 17.51 355
256 [44] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 2-8 27.72 42.04 120
257 [40] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-6 27.51 32.03 228
258 [45] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 27.41 29.70 250
259 [43] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-7 27.36 44.99 94
260 [26] Hart County 8 – AAA 3-8 27.28 37.46 169
261 [16] Trion 6 – A 7-4 27.12 17.19 359
262 [15] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-4 26.89 22.62 318
263 [17] Turner County 2 – A 6-5 26.84 26.93 283
264 [16] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-4 26.79 17.21 358
265 [17] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 7-4 26.69 17.04 362
266 [30] Harlem 4 – AA 7-4 26.52 17.13 360
267 [27] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-6 26.16 29.03 261
268 [28] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 26.15 22.68 317
269 [31] South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-6 26.00 29.59 252
270 [41] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 25.97 37.07 172
271 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-10 25.67 48.69 70
272 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 6-5 24.94 25.98 289
273 [32] Temple 5 – AA 6-5 24.93 19.19 348
274 [33] Metter 2 – AA 3-7 24.92 39.81 143
275 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 24.58 36.63 181
276 [29] Towers 5 – AAA 4-6 24.39 31.58 234
277 [18] Mitchell County 1 – A 9-1 24.20 -5.22 414
278 [30] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-6 23.80 34.22 207
279 [42] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-9 23.78 41.99 121
280 [19] Jenkins County 3 – A 8-3 23.63 13.54 391
281 [46] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-6 23.01 29.37 253
282 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-10 22.89 58.42 21
283 [47] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-8 22.37 33.69 213
284 [31] Savannah 3 – AAA 6-5 22.35 19.97 339
285 [32] Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-6 22.28 27.59 275
286 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 2-8 22.07 35.91 190
287 [48] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-7 22.05 32.29 222
288 [33] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-6 22.01 26.20 287
289 [34] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-4 21.88 15.68 377
290 [19] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-4 21.72 15.46 380
291 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 5-6 21.62 22.92 313
292 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 21.62 31.19 238
293 [20] Mount de Sales 7 – A 6-5 20.76 17.34 356
294 [50] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-7 20.43 32.01 229
295 [51] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 20.41 48.07 77
296 [52] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 20.33 30.35 247
297 [51] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-9 20.16 38.11 163
298 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 6-5 20.10 15.01 384
299 [35] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 20.09 35.09 200
300 [22] Walker 6 – A 5-6 20.04 24.50 299
301 [35] Chattooga 7 – AA 4-7 20.01 29.18 258
302 [36] Beach 3 – AAA 5-4 19.85 16.28 372
303 [43] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-7 19.71 28.19 271
304 [52] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-10 19.42 42.19 117
305 [36] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-5 19.33 21.92 328
306 [44] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-6 19.33 23.67 306
307 [20] Montgomery County 3 – A 6-5 19.28 15.44 381
308 [37] Union County 7 – AAA 6-4 19.26 20.59 336
309 [23] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 5-6 19.20 22.22 321
310 [37] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 18.90 30.71 243
311 [38] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-9 18.58 32.15 225
312 [53] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 18.50 35.41 196
313 [38] Therrell 6 – AA 3-7 18.48 30.39 246
314 [24] Brookstone 4 – A 5-6 18.40 19.92 341
315 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-8 18.17 47.43 81
316 [39] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 18.15 35.47 195
317 [53] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-8 18.07 38.36 160
318 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-2 18.05 -2.28 409
319 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-9 17.70 39.51 147
320 [45] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 17.64 52.84 45
321 [39] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-9 17.09 36.92 175
322 [40] Early County 1 – AA 2-8 16.67 44.13 98
323 [22] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 3-6 15.53 21.97 326
324 [41] Butler 4 – AA 4-7 15.52 24.63 298
325 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 3-7 15.30 29.09 259
326 [42] Laney 4 – AA 3-7 14.77 34.28 205
327 [55] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 14.66 46.43 87
328 [40] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-8 14.44 31.60 233
329 [47] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 13.92 35.86 191
330 [23] Claxton 3 – A 3-7 13.73 23.16 311
331 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 13.61 34.51 204
332 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-5 13.59 13.90 390
333 [43] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-7 13.57 25.84 291
334 [25] Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-7 13.54 26.98 282
335 [44] Banks County 8 – AA 5-6 12.06 15.86 374
336 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-9 11.93 36.06 188
337 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-6 11.80 17.26 357
338 [24] Towns County 8 – A 5-6 11.41 18.61 352
339 [25] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 7-4 11.19 0.40 407
340 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-9 11.16 46.67 86
341 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-8 10.88 32.39 221
342 [27] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-8 10.71 27.80 273
343 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 10.69 31.35 236
344 [27] Athens Christian 8 – A 4-6 10.45 15.74 376
345 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 4-6 10.23 16.79 365
346 [42] Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-8 9.65 27.18 280
347 [28] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 9.09 10.85 395
348 [48] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-9 7.80 32.51 220
349 [45] Dade County 7 – AA 4-6 7.73 16.33 371
350 [29] Miller County 1 – A 7-4 7.69 -3.73 412
351 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-8 7.67 31.12 239
352 [43] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-9 7.59 31.46 235
353 [46] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-9 7.58 41.72 122
354 [44] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 7.49 24.22 301
355 [45] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-9 7.31 36.29 184
356 [30] Wilkinson County 7 – A 3-7 7.20 20.71 334
357 [46] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-7 7.17 21.97 327
358 [47] Islands 3 – AAA 3-7 5.82 21.39 331
359 [48] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-9 4.88 35.35 198
360 [49] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-10 4.64 34.24 206
361 [31] Seminole County 1 – A 5-5 2.52 -2.90 411
362 [32] Bowdon 6 – A 2-8 2.05 22.16 323
363 [50] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-8 2.02 23.90 305
364 [47] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-5 1.84 5.92 401
365 [33] Hancock Central 7 – A 2-8 1.82 18.83 349
366 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 1.77 16.36 370
367 [34] Hawkinsville 4 – A 2-8 1.53 28.68 266
368 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-10 1.35 36.44 183
369 [35] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-8 0.88 12.78 393
370 [49] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 0.82 22.17 322
371 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 0.74 27.44 277
372 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 0.19 23.58 308
373 [36] Portal 3 – A 2-8 -0.75 18.15 353
374 [50] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -0.91 14.97 385
375 [37] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -0.94 28.04 272
376 [52] Long County 2 – AAA 0-10 -1.38 28.75 264
377 [38] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-6 -1.38 3.76 403
378 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-8 -2.09 16.65 366
379 [51] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-8 -2.09 16.24 373
380 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-9 -2.20 27.47 276
381 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 2-8 -2.53 16.87 364
382 [52] Monticello 8 – AA 2-9 -2.62 18.79 350
383 [39] Greene County 7 – A 3-7 -2.75 10.76 396
384 [53] Model 7 – AA 1-9 -4.54 23.38 310
385 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-9 -5.06 16.62 367
386 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -6.30 31.60 232
387 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-9 -6.45 19.25 347
388 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-9 -7.35 23.57 309
389 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -7.53 20.12 338
390 [33] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-10 -8.39 30.94 241
391 [40] Greenville 4 – A 2-8 -9.13 22.53 319
392 [34] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-8 -9.39 17.10 361
393 [41] Treutlen 3 – A 1-9 -9.80 14.32 389
394 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -11.49 53.02 42
395 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-6 -11.79 1.19 404
396 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-9 -12.66 36.98 174
397 [54] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-8 -13.33 17.02 363
398 [42] Warren County 7 – A 1-9 -14.30 20.75 333
399 [43] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 3-7 -14.50 8.74 398
400 [44] Terrell County 1 – A 3-7 -14.84 1.04 406
401 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 3-7 -15.29 1.16 405
402 [55] Groves 3 – AAA 1-9 -17.54 12.98 392
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -18.17 33.69 212
404 [46] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-7 -20.65 -5.82 415
405 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-10 -21.29 21.89 329
406 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-10 -22.09 25.01 296
407 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -22.30 28.32 270
408 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 1-9 -22.83 5.29 402
409 [47] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-8 -24.51 -1.84 408
410 [48] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-10 -24.83 22.69 316
411 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -25.18 34.56 203
412 [49] Crawford County 4 – A 3-7 -26.31 -2.68 410
413 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -26.42 15.15 383
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-9 -35.39 -4.36 413
415 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-7 -43.23 -27.32 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-10 -47.37 7.11 399
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 2-7 -57.14 -50.19 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -71.64 -31.42 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 90.98 78.82
2 8 – AAAAAAA 82.86 59.36
3 5 – AAAA 79.38 52.68
4 6 – AAAAAAA 78.92 54.56
5 7 – AAAAAAA 76.84 54.46
6 4 – AAAAAAA 75.95 58.77
7 1 – AAAAAA 75.42 64.72
8 3 – AAAAAAA 75.03 63.25
9 8 – AAAAA 73.83 36.07
10 4 – AAAAA 73.73 52.36
11 2 – AAAAAA 70.60 59.70
12 5 – AAAAAAA 70.51 53.80
13 2 – AA 67.32 43.95
14 1 – AAAAA 66.52 45.13
15 1 – AA 65.35 47.46
16 5 – AAAAAA 64.51 43.75
17 7 – AAAAA 64.42 43.87
18 7 – AAAA 63.77 48.65
19 3 – AAAA 63.69 38.22
20 6 – AAAAAA 61.69 46.97
21 7 – AAA 60.95 26.79
22 6 – AAAA 60.30 32.62
23 2 – AAAAA 58.92 45.11
24 5 – AAA 58.46 32.07
25 4 – AAA 57.84 30.11
26 4 – AA 57.40 20.48
27 5 – A 57.36 25.99
28 2 – AAAAAAA 56.30 45.44
29 3 – AAAAA 55.79 39.65
30 2 – AAAA 55.55 43.52
31 3 – AAAAAA 55.19 42.37
32 4 – AAAAAA 54.98 34.30
33 8 – AAAA 54.18 40.01
34 3 – AA 53.62 37.67
35 8 – AAAAAA 52.41 38.07
36 1 – AAAA 52.03 35.66
37 7 – AAAAAA 51.69 33.39
38 6 – AA 51.19 27.26
39 5 – AA 50.72 32.72
40 8 – AA 50.50 7.91
41 1 – AAA 50.06 29.69
42 6 – AAA 49.26 21.35
  6-South – AAA 52.12 30.49
  6-North – AAA 27.28 13.31
43 2 – A 48.70 26.77
44 4 – A 47.93 18.11
  4-Div B – A 42.76 25.91
  4-Div A – A 41.47 6.32
45 6 – AAAAA 46.10 29.57
46 8 – A 44.63 17.13
47 4 – AAAA 43.01 21.95
48 6 – A 42.41 17.09
  6-Div B – A 40.68 20.04
  6-Div A – A 31.68 14.26
49 7 – AA 41.35 15.22
50 7 – A 40.53 18.12
  7-Div A – A 35.94 20.10
  7-Div B – A 34.21 15.36
51 5 – AAAAA 39.51 26.35
52 3 – AAA 39.47 16.30
53 3 – A 39.12 17.39
  3-Div A – A 34.89 20.94
  3-Div B – A 32.30 13.27
54 8 – AAA 39.03 23.67
55 2 – AAA 37.32 22.28
56 1 – A 19.43 -4.77

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 22.15 90.2% 0.121
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 56.91 99.7% 0.212
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 – 14 16.30 83.6% 0.216
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 17.47 85.2% 0.228
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 13.30 79.1% 0.228
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 15.22 82.1% 0.233
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 16.75 84.2% 0.238
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 15.19 82.0% 0.266
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 15.81 82.9% 0.268
10/13 Mountain View Collins Hill 21 – 29 12.80 78.2% 0.281
09/01 Spalding Jonesboro 7 – 24 10.80 74.6% 0.289
10/20 Glynn Academy Richmond Hill 7 – 12 12.97 78.5% 0.291
11/03 West Laurens Perry 14 – 20 12.15 77.1% 0.300
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 11.86 76.6% 0.301
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 – 49 13.55 79.5% 0.302

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.50 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 11.61 76.2%
85.86 11/17 North Gwinnett Grayson 0.85 52.1%
85.69 10/13 Archer Grayson 6 – 3 0.48 51.2%
85.24 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 – 31 0.91 52.3%
83.50 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 3.18 57.9%
83.12 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 3.82 59.4%
79.61 10/20 Tift County Colquitt County 38 – 35 4.92 62.1%
79.10 11/17 Walton Colquitt County 8.83 70.7%
78.72 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 – 25 6.19 65.0%
78.51 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 – 45 20.08 88.2%
77.36 09/15 Tift County Parkview 50 – 37 7.72 68.4%
77.18 10/20 Brookwood Parkview 30 – 27 6.63 66.0%
76.67 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 – 13 10.72 74.5%
75.46 11/17 Archer Mill Creek 13.08 78.7%
75.45 09/29 North Gwinnett Mill Creek 35 – 21 13.45 79.3%

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