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Maxwell playoff projections after Week 11

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2017 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.


Class AAAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAAA 79,384 920,616 406,156 33,066 135 271,590 728,410 136,208 557,611 0.79
8 – AAAAAAA 288,114 711,886 217,299 3,086 3 604,880 395,120 45,141 190,974 4.24
4 – AAAAAAA 533,355 466,645 23,420 64 696,324 303,676 549 123,686 7.08
6 – AAAAAAA 583,997 416,003 14,766 83 875,347 124,653 942 57,429 16.41
7 – AAAAAAA 534,619 465,381 16,521 109 805,548 194,452 1,402 54,799 17.25
5 – AAAAAAA 872,145 127,855 4,287 30 961,890 38,110 186 10,286 96.22
3 – AAAAAAA 846,013 153,987 7,418 102 969,483 30,517 143 5,188 191.75
2 – AAAAAAA 988,928 11,072 3 999,509 491 27 37,036.04

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 10-0 95.81 1,000,000 4.94 942,264 849,880 654,970 497,673 1.01
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 9-0 87.78 1,000,000 3.57 750,243 461,388 302,358 123,494 7.10
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 8-1 87.33 1,000,000 3.19 535,298 481,866 167,019 96,058 9.41
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 9-0 85.49 1,000,000 3.59 824,397 436,479 270,620 94,417 9.59
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 8-1 83.69 1,000,000 2.99 450,472 393,479 117,705 56,481 16.71
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-1 83.26 1,000,000 3.36 738,747 415,541 177,040 53,787 17.59
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 7-2 82.19 1,000,000 3.43 789,624 444,925 188,128 53,117 17.83
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 9-0 76.74 1,000,000 2.59 561,651 94,695 32,232 9,685 102.25
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-3 76.50 1,000,000 2.33 279,012 94,514 32,606 6,151 161.58
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 74.63 1,000,000 2.19 216,801 87,522 23,429 4,274 232.97
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 72.37 1,000,000 1.90 266,991 28,166 6,913 1,579 632.31
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 6-3 70.97 1,000,000 1.85 135,247 30,354 7,189 906 1,102.75
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.86 1,000,000 1.93 181,284 34,279 4,320 595 1,679.67
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 69.57 1,000,000 1.77 131,233 33,073 5,596 578 1,729.10
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-3 69.81 1,000,000 1.57 156,901 13,514 2,606 499 2,003.01
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 65.48 1,000,000 1.60 213,289 24,157 1,984 250 3,999.00
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 63.85 729,698 1.31 204,777 20,619 1,383 157 6,368.43
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 66.71 1,000,000 1.13 21,232 8,707 808 102 9,802.92
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 61.10 993,116 1.63 139,804 11,125 692 53 18,866.92
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-2 62.85 1,000,000 1.42 46,922 6,573 674 42 23,808.52
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 60.61 1,000,000 1.42 78,164 6,800 424 32 31,249.00
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 6-3 58.05 1,000,000 1.65 165,095 10,670 479 27 37,036.04
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 61.47 1,000,000 1.42 52,005 4,261 467 23 43,477.26
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 5-4 59.77 825,387 1.10 64,911 4,425 235 16 62,499.00
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 56.55 1,000,000 1.19 9,051 919 38 2 499,999.00
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 2-7 56.44 343,581 0.41 5,374 404 22 1 999,999.00
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-2 51.05 1,000,000 1.03 3,407 180 5 1 999,999.00
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 5-4 56.15 823,162 0.95 16,679 446 27
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-6 52.28 1,000,000 1.05 6,815 415 16
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 51.52 1,000,000 1.09 4,174 230 12
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-6 53.97 16,695 0.03 754 41 2
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-4 48.98 1,000,000 1.03 938 144 1
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 48.36 398,119 0.43 3,144 96
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-6 44.09 685,532 0.70 1,003 43
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-5 45.78 985,080 0.99 759 37
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-4 51.94 22,459 0.03 1,342 33
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 40.09 176,882 0.18 193
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-5 45.17 289 0.00 3
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 2-7 39.45
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-7 34.09
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-8 32.67
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-6 27.69
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-8 26.80
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-9 26.19
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-9 22.45
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-7 16.10
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-8 13.09
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -12.82

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 At Large Out
1 – AAAAAAA Lowndes 1,000,000
1 – AAAAAAA Tift County 955,957 30,262 13,781
1 – AAAAAAA Colquitt County 43,150 956,850
1 – AAAAAAA Camden County 893 12,888 2,914 983,305
2 – AAAAAAA Westlake 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAAA Pebblebrook 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAAA Newnan 670,612 14,920 314,468
2 – AAAAAAA East Coweta 209,985 119,403 68,731 601,881
2 – AAAAAAA Campbell 119,403 865,677 14,920
2 – AAAAAAA Wheeler 1,000,000
3 – AAAAAAA McEachern 647,916 352,084
3 – AAAAAAA Hillgrove 352,084 383,706 264,210
3 – AAAAAAA Marietta 264,210 144,444 98,762 485,700 6,884
3 – AAAAAAA North Paulding 591,346 408,654
3 – AAAAAAA North Cobb 492,584 332,803 174,613
3 – AAAAAAA Kennesaw Mountain 289 999,711
4 – AAAAAAA Walton 946,040 53,960
4 – AAAAAAA Woodstock 53,960 320,646 625,394
4 – AAAAAAA Lassiter 625,394 35,695 11,846 56,763 270,302
4 – AAAAAAA Etowah 338,911 661,089
4 – AAAAAAA Roswell 327,065 16,516 656,419
4 – AAAAAAA Cherokee 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAAA South Forsyth 879,714 61,427 58,859
5 – AAAAAAA West Forsyth 120,286 145,683 734,031
5 – AAAAAAA Milton 789,981 163,019 47,000
5 – AAAAAAA North Forsyth 2,909 44,091 953,000
5 – AAAAAAA Lambert 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAAA Forsyth Central 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA Mill Creek 813,837 176,882 9,281
6 – AAAAAAA Mountain View 176,882 823,118
6 – AAAAAAA Collins Hill 9,281 813,837 44 176,838
6 – AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 176,882 823,118
6 – AAAAAAA Discovery 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA Duluth 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Brookwood 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Parkview 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Norcross 847,223 152,777
7 – AAAAAAA Meadowcreek 152,777 847,223
7 – AAAAAAA Central Gwinnett 22,459 977,541
7 – AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Berkmar 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAAA Archer 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAAA Grayson 997,105 1,327 1,568
8 – AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 2,895 1,204 995,901
8 – AAAAAAA Newton 997,469 2,531
8 – AAAAAAA Shiloh 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAAA Rockdale County 1,000,000

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAA 200,104 799,896 355,740 58,488 2,650 379,897 620,103 135,094 436,459 1.29
2 – AAAAAA 356,873 643,127 194,289 21,742 527 616,501 383,499 41,562 206,519 3.84
5 – AAAAAA 479,262 520,738 71,269 2,923 35 685,094 314,906 12,397 178,536 4.60
6 – AAAAAA 495,097 504,903 82,220 4,632 60 800,122 199,878 8,991 81,209 11.31
4 – AAAAAA 631,425 368,575 31,543 232 807,807 192,193 1,988 80,303 11.45
7 – AAAAAA 874,322 125,678 2,142 6 964,043 35,957 42 7,315 135.71
8 – AAAAAA 873,679 126,321 3,183 24 963,131 36,869 45 7,262 136.70
3 – AAAAAA 921,931 78,069 988 2 983,562 16,438 38 2,397 416.19

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 73.31 1,000,000 3.92 790,551 579,653 416,520 286,678 2.49
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 69.98 1,000,000 3.54 800,153 431,920 279,605 167,889 4.96
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 68.39 1,000,000 2.79 509,420 328,149 209,579 101,812 8.82
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 5-3 68.79 1,000,000 2.70 435,257 333,268 195,651 101,400 8.86
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 8-1 65.66 1,000,000 3.00 457,955 333,076 181,287 77,722 11.87
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 66.96 1,000,000 2.82 528,128 353,110 158,586 81,138 11.32
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 7-2 64.27 1,000,000 3.17 743,889 385,289 141,807 65,745 14.21
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 63.97 1,000,000 2.22 339,375 241,651 112,339 41,901 22.87
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-1 62.42 1,000,000 1.82 250,873 154,359 66,609 23,196 42.11
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 57.20 1,000,000 2.01 331,150 105,887 36,111 8,652 114.58
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-2 56.89 1,000,000 2.05 344,709 101,243 35,128 8,394 118.13
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 54.74 1,000,000 2.48 427,124 107,767 34,682 7,038 141.09
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 8-1 55.05 1,000,000 2.29 359,891 112,713 34,049 7,077 140.30
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-3 55.92 1,000,000 1.96 310,897 87,482 27,801 6,169 161.10
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 3-6 59.73 815,087 1.28 144,710 66,136 16,640 6,049 164.32
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-2 51.12 1,000,000 2.02 151,069 58,170 13,298 2,011 496.27
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-2 53.04 1,000,000 2.00 166,600 59,553 11,814 2,448 407.50
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-3 53.04 645,128 1.03 121,708 24,239 6,307 1,115 895.86
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.56 939,096 1.34 129,944 28,330 4,824 809 1,235.09
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 4-5 51.84 1,000,000 1.22 73,324 18,947 4,215 785 1,272.89
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 52.91 988,777 1.23 88,008 17,751 4,124 900 1,110.11
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-3 47.38 1,000,000 1.60 69,402 18,299 2,947 366 2,731.24
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 7-3 46.13 1,000,000 1.69 83,477 12,098 1,803 230 4,346.83
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 8-1 44.33 1,000,000 1.50 71,378 8,343 1,094 111 9,008.01
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 46.18 1,000,000 1.56 50,356 7,276 1,061 132 7,574.76
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 43.32 1,000,000 1.41 50,303 5,881 602 51 19,606.84
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-5 42.57 1,000,000 1.58 64,862 7,537 536 62 16,128.03
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 46.65 415,776 0.51 30,893 4,587 456 71 14,083.51
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 41.78 1,000,000 1.33 21,847 2,486 224 20 49,999.00
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 38.83 1,000,000 1.38 32,524 2,724 137 8 124,999.00
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-7 46.39 184,913 0.21 5,540 1,184 119 19 52,630.58
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 35.98 181,464 0.22 1,427 171 9 1 999,999.00
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 45.73 11,223 0.01 407 49 9 1 999,999.00
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 33.46 427,546 0.49 2,075 209 8
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-7 31.35 1,000,000 1.05 1,151 104 7
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 31.75 519,943 0.57 3,788 128 5
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 34.28 262,798 0.30 3,026 115 4
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 29.23 390,990 0.43 940 66 2
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 32.81 217,259 0.24 1,869 50 1
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-3 39.52
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-6 38.63
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 2-7 36.69
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 35.47
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-6 33.49
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-6 30.51
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 30.40
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 29.56
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-8 28.14
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 26.37
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 23.28
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-8 23.04
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 21.35
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 18.48
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 17.11
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 16.48
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-8 12.84
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 10.97
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-8 -9.92

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAAA Coffee 604,259 395,741
1 – AAAAAA Lee County 395,741 111,589 492,670
1 – AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 492,670 507,330
1 – AAAAAA Valdosta 815,087 184,913
1 – AAAAAA Houston County 184,913 815,087
2 – AAAAAA Brunswick 781,697 218,303
2 – AAAAAA Glynn Academy 218,303 739,497 42,200
2 – AAAAAA Richmond Hill 41,814 735,937 222,249
2 – AAAAAA Effingham County 386 221,863 777,751
2 – AAAAAA Bradwell Institute 1,000,000
3 – AAAAAA Evans 724,473 201,088 74,439
3 – AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 275,527 243,917 480,556
3 – AAAAAA Grovetown 554,995 337,566 107,439
3 – AAAAAA Lakeside (Evans) 107,439 892,561
3 – AAAAAA Greenbrier 1,000,000
3 – AAAAAA Alcovy 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Tucker 786,565 213,435
4 – AAAAAA Stephenson 213,435 786,565
4 – AAAAAA Lovejoy 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Drew 427,546 572,454
4 – AAAAAA M.L. King 390,990 609,010
4 – AAAAAA Jonesboro 181,464 818,536
4 – AAAAAA Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Mundy’s Mill 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Forest Park 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Mays 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Douglas County 645,128 354,872
5 – AAAAAA Alexander 354,872 584,224 60,904
5 – AAAAAA Hughes 584,224 60,904 354,872
5 – AAAAAA Northgate 60,904 354,872 584,224
5 – AAAAAA Tri-Cities 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA New Manchester 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Creekside 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA South Paulding 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Harrison 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Dalton 558,685 441,315
6 – AAAAAA Allatoona 441,315 558,685
6 – AAAAAA Sequoyah 988,777 11,223
6 – AAAAAA Creekview 11,223 988,777
6 – AAAAAA South Cobb 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA River Ridge 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Sprayberry 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Osborne 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Alpharetta 825,729 102,726 71,545
7 – AAAAAA Centennial 164,412 835,588
7 – AAAAAA Chattahoochee 9,859 61,686 928,455
7 – AAAAAA Pope 519,943 480,057
7 – AAAAAA Cambridge 262,798 737,202
7 – AAAAAA Johns Creek 217,259 782,741
7 – AAAAAA Northview 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA North Atlanta 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Dunwoody 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Dacula 850,117 143,744 6,139
8 – AAAAAA Winder-Barrow 149,883 22,620 482,705 344,792
8 – AAAAAA Gainesville 675,379 179,689 144,932
8 – AAAAAA Lanier 158,257 331,467 510,276
8 – AAAAAA Habersham Central 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Apalachee 1,000,000

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
8 – AAAAA 249,665 750,335 96,182 2,167 1 414,281 585,719 12,341 485,659 1.06
1 – AAAAA 252,518 747,482 79,436 42 458,352 541,648 4,096 174,086 4.74
7 – AAAAA 153,659 846,341 125,234 5,014 4 705,588 294,412 9,905 172,515 4.80
4 – AAAAA 340,679 659,321 192,010 18,245 437 619,460 380,540 39,164 153,633 5.51
2 – AAAAA 683,932 316,068 1,527 892,554 107,446 36 12,624 78.21
3 – AAAAA 934,379 65,621 1,275 6 988,446 11,554 16 1,034 966.12
6 – AAAAA 924,074 75,926 460 989,027 10,973 405 2,468.14
5 – AAAAA 983,152 16,848 11 997,850 2,150 44 22,726.27

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 7-1 87.75 1,000,000 4.76 977,096 739,675 576,430 484,510 1.06
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 9-0 75.34 1,000,000 4.23 834,676 718,561 522,721 171,471 4.83
Rome 7 – AAAAA 9-0 77.27 1,000,000 4.20 960,685 818,906 264,368 170,223 4.87
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 9-0 77.87 1,000,000 3.47 935,465 283,228 161,712 104,308 8.59
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-1 69.25 1,000,000 3.13 536,057 444,127 223,024 46,089 20.70
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 7-1 62.18 1,000,000 2.81 431,380 312,711 107,077 12,577 78.51
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 7-2 58.39 1,000,000 2.50 477,578 107,869 23,001 2,615 381.41
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 6-4 58.03 1,000,000 1.90 154,752 74,442 23,323 1,987 502.27
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 7-2 54.26 1,000,000 2.27 507,031 86,642 25,785 1,483 673.31
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-2 58.28 1,000,000 1.93 258,060 68,219 11,645 1,249 799.64
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 8-1 54.05 1,000,000 1.97 334,424 81,177 16,015 961 1,039.58
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.58 1,000,000 1.74 196,337 43,896 8,347 879 1,136.66
Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-4 54.25 1,000,000 1.84 291,547 70,254 14,103 805 1,241.24
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-1 49.34 1,000,000 2.40 366,634 69,816 10,794 389 2,569.69
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-3 49.36 1,000,000 1.62 241,677 27,500 5,613 188 5,318.15
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 51.48 1,000,000 1.31 66,998 17,207 2,419 137 7,298.27
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 3-5 52.13 1,000,000 1.85 69,291 4,392 380 46 21,738.13
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 7-2 42.47 1,000,000 2.05 226,826 16,133 2,144 44 22,726.27
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 6-3 45.55 1,000,000 1.20 17,809 5,701 800 18 55,554.56
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 7-2 44.54 1,000,000 1.74 29,016 5,242 111 10 99,999.00
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 7-2 43.49 1,000,000 1.82 20,884 971 53 5 199,999.00
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-5 47.56 630,814 0.66 10,309 685 58 4 249,999.00
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-9 34.41 1,000,000 1.02 1,944 320 22 1 999,999.00
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 5-4 31.27 729,345 0.91 15,142 332 15 1 999,999.00
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-6 37.30 1,000,000 1.16 4,751 375 18
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-3 37.30 1,000,000 1.34 6,964 658 6
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 4-5 33.54 1,000,000 1.10 2,486 155 4
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-3 38.96 938,186 0.96 4,644 96 4
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-3 35.58 1,000,000 1.14 7,664 173 3
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-5 41.55 369,186 0.38 2,680 108 3
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 5-4 36.10 950,634 0.97 4,206 332 2
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-4 28.38 934,094 1.09 1,293 44
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-5 25.52 270,655 0.31 2,111 26
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-6 21.10 1,000,000 1.05 1,382 24
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-6 31.88 61,814 0.06 108 1
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-5 20.45 65,906 0.07 75 1
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-7 20.01 49,366 0.05 18 1
Ola 4 – AAAAA 4-5 48.00
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-6 45.19
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 42.53
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-7 38.45
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 3-6 37.56
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 34.93
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-6 34.85
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-6 33.63
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-6 31.26
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-8 30.91
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-8 29.59
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 25.36
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-7 24.83
Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-6 22.20
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-8 21.28
Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-9 20.90
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-8 17.53
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-8 -1.00
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-9 -24.54
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 1-8 -26.51
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 0-6 -65.44

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAA Warner Robins 863,062 136,938
1 – AAAAA Bainbridge 136,938 863,062
1 – AAAAA Thomas County Central 576,032 423,968
1 – AAAAA Harris County 423,968 576,032
1 – AAAAA Veterans 1,000,000
2 – AAAAA Wayne County 1,000,000
2 – AAAAA Ware County 857,385 142,615
2 – AAAAA New Hampstead 142,615 857,385
2 – AAAAA South Effingham 1,000,000
2 – AAAAA Statesboro 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA Starr’s Mill 663,364 293,998 42,638
3 – AAAAA Griffin 293,998 42,638 663,364
3 – AAAAA Whitewater 42,638 663,364 293,998
3 – AAAAA McIntosh 938,186 61,814
3 – AAAAA Fayette County 61,814 938,186
3 – AAAAA Riverdale 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA Morrow 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Stockbridge 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Jones County 775,899 224,101
4 – AAAAA Dutchtown 224,101 775,899
4 – AAAAA Eagle’s Landing 775,899 224,101
4 – AAAAA Union Grove 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Locust Grove 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Ola 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Hampton 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Arabia Mountain 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Southwest DeKalb 716,989 283,011
5 – AAAAA Columbia 283,011 643,716 7,367 65,906
5 – AAAAA Lithonia 73,273 926,727
5 – AAAAA Miller Grove 65,906 934,094
5 – AAAAA Chamblee 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Clarkston 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Cross Keys 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Maynard Jackson 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Banneker 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA North Springs 729,345 270,655
6 – AAAAA Decatur 270,655 729,345
6 – AAAAA Riverwood 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Lithia Springs 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Grady 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Rome 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Carrollton 968,416 31,584
7 – AAAAA Kell 31,584 968,416
7 – AAAAA East Paulding 630,814 369,186
7 – AAAAA Paulding County 369,186 630,814
7 – AAAAA Villa Rica 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Woodland (Cartersville) 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Hiram 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Cass 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Buford 964,569 35,431
8 – AAAAA Flowery Branch 35,431 964,569
8 – AAAAA Clarke Central 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Cedar Shoals 950,634 49,366
8 – AAAAA Walnut Grove 49,366 950,634
8 – AAAAA Loganville 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Johnson (Gainesville) 1,000,000

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
5 – AAAA 42,579 957,421 432,871 55,151 665 121,784 878,216 189,755 810,887 0.23
6 – AAAA 277,817 722,183 62,600 37 860,706 139,294 2,218 82,400 11.14
3 – AAAA 487,260 512,740 22,930 97 614,215 385,785 4,764 56,001 16.86
7 – AAAA 629,880 370,120 16,685 178 1 729,709 270,291 2,229 40,355 23.78
2 – AAAA 670,242 329,758 31,715 36 959,527 40,473 379 5,892 168.72
8 – AAAA 769,783 230,217 8,769 4 955,092 44,908 82 2,558 389.93
4 – AAAA 792,942 207,058 3,068 964,764 35,236 16 1,368 729.99
1 – AAAA 964,732 35,268 425 2 993,654 6,346 8 539 1,854.29

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 91.55 1,000,000 5.51 957,438 927,382 841,860 789,396 0.27
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-0 72.08 1,000,000 3.65 827,438 694,658 122,969 81,472 11.27
Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-0 66.81 1,000,000 3.80 899,955 488,914 376,617 50,940 18.63
Marist 7 – AAAA 9-0 67.49 1,000,000 3.15 579,001 326,058 250,722 36,297 26.55
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 8-1 63.53 1,000,000 2.60 399,700 204,712 119,964 12,679 77.87
Troup 5 – AAAA 8-1 60.51 1,000,000 2.60 449,982 302,595 105,682 8,767 113.06
Thomson 3 – AAAA 7-1 60.33 1,000,000 2.71 689,993 43,358 13,879 5,056 196.78
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 7-2 57.95 1,000,000 2.96 783,688 213,202 14,730 4,807 207.03
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 61.03 1,000,000 2.03 91,321 45,248 20,866 4,010 248.38
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 4-5 53.55 1,000,000 2.37 326,527 193,769 42,784 2,015 495.28
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 9-1 50.80 1,000,000 2.70 528,413 194,369 34,857 1,319 757.15
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-4 51.80 1,000,000 2.31 389,975 147,120 25,943 1,083 922.36
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-1 53.52 1,000,000 1.60 161,758 88,912 18,443 925 1,080.08
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 7-2 54.02 1,000,000 1.78 97,279 43,866 2,136 543 1,840.62
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 7-2 52.21 1,000,000 2.14 288,923 10,047 2,031 432 2,313.81
Cairo 1 – AAAA 6-3 46.71 1,000,000 1.81 81,593 10,676 3,133 86 11,626.91
Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-2 45.30 1,000,000 1.81 151,887 15,714 393 49 20,407.16
White County 7 – AAAA 7-2 46.13 1,000,000 1.40 35,540 10,457 593 45 22,221.22
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-3 48.09 1,000,000 1.13 34,556 11,421 465 45 22,221.22
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-2 42.38 1,000,000 1.34 76,582 14,497 1,188 21 47,618.05
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 5-4 39.03 1,000,000 1.41 52,695 3,396 50 5 199,999.00
West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-4 39.97 1,000,000 1.22 22,186 5,220 339 3 333,332.33
Spalding 2 – AAAA 3-5 39.92 616,960 0.82 12,063 786 136 2 499,999.00
Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-4 38.42 983,793 1.07 7,730 1,139 97 2 499,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-4 39.75 839,123 0.84 661 104 3 1 999,999.00
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 4-5 38.72 613,795 0.65 3,164 260 47
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-5 37.06 393,541 0.49 5,317 225 36
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-4 40.86 945,835 1.11 5,267 1,079 23
Howard 2 – AAAA 6-3 37.56 989,499 1.18 17,220 176 7
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-4 23.14 1,000,000 1.06 3,513 100 3
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-6 36.40 63,951 0.07 1,857 100 2
Salem 4 – AAAA 5-4 27.99 979,545 1.01 3,415 31 2
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-6 31.28 928,426 0.99 11,638 375
Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-5 29.60 440,370 0.45 384 15
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-5 21.25 1,000,000 1.02 1,238 12
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-2 32.19 177,084 0.18 68 7
Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-6 25.72 7,623 0.01 29
Henry County 4 – AAAA 2-7 15.26 20,455 0.02 6
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 4-5 48.02
Perry 2 – AAAA 4-5 33.20
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-6 32.41
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 29.77
Westover 1 – AAAA 4-5 27.24
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-8 26.72
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 18.65
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-5 15.15
Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-8 13.48
Luella 4 – AAAA 1-8 10.22
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-7 5.14
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-7 2.81
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-8 -5.06
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-9 -19.09

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAA Americus-Sumter 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Cairo 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Northside (Columbus) 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Carver (Columbus) 928,426 71,574
1 – AAAA Hardaway 63,951 936,049
1 – AAAA Columbus 7,623 992,377
1 – AAAA Shaw 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Westover 1,000,000
2 – AAAA Mary Persons 1,000,000
2 – AAAA West Laurens 1,000,000
2 – AAAA Spalding 606,459 10,501 383,040
2 – AAAA Upson-Lee 345,639 47,902 606,459
2 – AAAA Howard 47,902 941,597 10,501
2 – AAAA Perry 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Burke County 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Thomson 991,309 6,839 1,852
3 – AAAA Richmond Academy 8,691 11,778 979,531
3 – AAAA Baldwin 981,383 18,617
3 – AAAA Hephzibah 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Cross Creek 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Woodward Academy 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Eastside 927,562 72,438
4 – AAAA North Clayton 72,438 317,764 609,798
4 – AAAA Salem 590,772 388,773 20,455
4 – AAAA Henry County 19,026 1,429 979,545
4 – AAAA Luella 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Druid Hills 1,000,000
5 – AAAA Cartersville 986,323 13,641 36
5 – AAAA Troup 13,677 180,071 806,252
5 – AAAA Cedartown 806,253 161,287 32,460
5 – AAAA Chapel Hill 35 32,425 967,540
5 – AAAA Sandy Creek 1,000,000
5 – AAAA Central (Carrollton) 1,000,000
5 – AAAA LaGrange 1,000,000
6 – AAAA Ridgeland 1,000,000
6 – AAAA Heritage (Ringgold) 839,123 160,877
6 – AAAA Pickens 160,877 822,916 16,207
6 – AAAA Southeast Whitfield 16,207 160,877 822,916
6 – AAAA Northwest Whitfield 839,123 160,877
6 – AAAA Gilmer 1,000,000
6 – AAAA LaFayette 1,000,000
7 – AAAA Marist 887,812 94,615 17,573
7 – AAAA Blessed Trinity 99,189 872,636 15,123 13,052
7 – AAAA White County 12,999 17,565 867,587 101,849
7 – AAAA West Hall 15,184 99,717 885,099
7 – AAAA Chestatee 1,000,000
8 – AAAA St. Pius X 1,000,000
8 – AAAA Jefferson 811,446 188,554
8 – AAAA Oconee County 188,554 739,764 17,517 54,165
8 – AAAA Madison County 71,682 368,688 559,630
8 – AAAA Stephens County 613,795 386,205
8 – AAAA North Oconee 1,000,000

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
7 – AAA 100,164 899,836 19,205 44 380,675 619,325 641 441,014 1.27
4 – AAA 74,349 925,651 81,885 449 622,731 377,269 3,213 213,262 3.69
5 – AAA 238,170 761,830 51,667 1,153 8 513,091 486,909 2,019 190,668 4.24
6 – AAA 182,355 817,645 24,048 67 595,611 404,389 1,220 138,570 6.22
1 – AAA 757,604 242,396 4,147 10 910,935 89,065 105 15,176 64.89
3 – AAA 941,265 58,735 136 992,534 7,466 2 875 1,141.86
8 – AAA 927,514 72,486 1,259 1 993,983 6,017 9 355 2,815.90
2 – AAA 962,759 37,241 93 997,649 2,351 80 12,499.00

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 76.00 1,000,000 4.91 946,003 907,086 618,857 440,962 1.27
Peach County 4 – AAA 8-1 69.96 1,000,000 4.47 973,494 918,384 371,775 212,806 3.70
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 9-0 69.29 1,000,000 4.33 933,738 744,139 482,232 190,046 4.26
Calhoun 6 – AAA 8-1 67.01 995,945 4.15 869,188 811,664 402,430 138,134 6.24
Crisp County 1 – AAA 7-1 57.37 1,000,000 3.19 878,715 228,548 87,987 15,099 65.23
Jenkins 3 – AAA 9-0 46.80 1,000,000 2.64 675,259 56,395 7,356 871 1,147.11
Bremen 6 – AAA 8-1 48.49 862,886 1.51 142,404 26,134 3,028 432 2,313.81
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-3 43.35 1,000,000 2.58 597,993 83,201 8,037 426 2,346.42
Lovett 5 – AAA 5-4 46.46 1,000,000 1.68 40,932 20,601 2,527 292 3,423.66
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 4-4 44.02 899,138 1.87 354,147 27,913 2,128 227 4,404.29
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 8-1 42.68 1,000,000 1.96 87,137 47,371 4,279 215 4,650.16
Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-1 41.21 1,000,000 2.20 375,719 25,817 1,717 140 7,141.86
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 4-5 43.11 1,000,000 1.24 73,393 21,974 2,041 103 9,707.74
Liberty County 2 – AAA 6-3 38.00 1,000,000 2.24 340,150 34,933 2,290 80 12,499.00
Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 40.68 1,000,000 2.07 243,658 15,376 1,122 75 13,332.33
Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-2 39.19 1,000,000 1.81 45,875 9,617 1,049 50 19,999.00
Pike County 4 – AAA 6-3 38.93 1,000,000 1.78 92,677 6,006 655 30 33,332.33
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-4 32.67 1,000,000 1.38 43,845 2,074 109 4 249,999.00
North Murray 6 – AAA 6-3 32.94 669,704 0.91 66,601 2,645 86 2 499,999.00
Monroe 1 – AAA 3-5 30.44 1,000,000 1.60 37,377 2,458 61 2 499,999.00
Adairsville 6 – AAA 5-4 32.31 790,123 0.87 6,882 1,022 57 2 499,999.00
North Hall 7 – AAA 4-6 29.03 1,000,000 1.19 6,102 1,423 40 1 999,999.00
East Hall 7 – AAA 5-4 29.25 1,000,000 1.25 40,846 959 20 1 999,999.00
Pierce County 2 – AAA 4-4 27.39 1,000,000 1.38 44,865 1,512 40
Hart County 8 – AAA 2-7 29.41 1,000,000 1.25 5,762 476 26
Appling County 2 – AAA 3-4 27.41 1,000,000 1.30 14,043 860 21
Jackson 4 – AAA 5-4 26.78 1,000,000 1.13 27,962 397 15
Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-4 29.44 137,114 0.16 2,614 162 4
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-5 27.34 330,296 0.34 1,511 124 4
Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-4 23.24 1,000,000 1.01 701 82 4
Savannah 3 – AAA 4-4 20.84 937,350 1.01 12,995 325 2
Beach 3 – AAA 5-3 18.24 796,044 0.80 1,291 60 1
Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 18.08 1,000,000 1.14 11,360 170
Towers 5 – AAA 4-5 23.75 100,862 0.10 192 34
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-5 18.37 1,000,000 1.04 3,060 30
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-2 21.31 266,606 0.30 1,256 18
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-4 18.42 209,877 0.22 253 10
Murray County 6 – AAA 3-6 11.42 4,055 0.00
Union County 7 – AAA 5-4 18.34
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 18.23
Redan 5 – AAA 3-6 16.99
Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-7 15.64
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-8 8.36
Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-8 5.95
McNair 5 – AAA 3-6 5.85
Islands 3 – AAA 2-7 5.47
Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-8 4.95
Worth County 1 – AAA 0-9 4.30
Rutland 4 – AAA 0-8 2.94
Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-8 2.74
Long County 2 – AAA 0-9 2.12
Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-7 1.28
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -7.63
East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-7 -11.06
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-9 -13.14
Groves 3 – AAA 1-8 -19.76
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -23.77

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAA Crisp County 1,000,000
1 – AAA Cook 763,835 236,165
1 – AAA Monroe 236,165 763,835
1 – AAA Dougherty 1,000,000
1 – AAA Worth County 1,000,000
2 – AAA Liberty County 873,047 122,608 4,345
2 – AAA Pierce County 126,953 252,589 620,458
2 – AAA Appling County 574,588 231,686 193,726
2 – AAA Tattnall County 50,215 143,511 806,274
2 – AAA Brantley County 1,000,000
2 – AAA Long County 1,000,000
3 – AAA Jenkins 1,000,000
3 – AAA Southeast Bulloch 789,432 209,639 929
3 – AAA Windsor Forest 210,568 6,854 49,184 733,394
3 – AAA Savannah 733,394 203,956 62,650
3 – AAA Beach 50,113 745,931 203,956
3 – AAA Islands 1,000,000
3 – AAA Johnson (Savannah) 1,000,000
3 – AAA Groves 1,000,000
4 – AAA Peach County 1,000,000
4 – AAA Westside (Macon) 1,000,000
4 – AAA Pike County 999,669 331
4 – AAA Jackson 331 999,669
4 – AAA Kendrick 1,000,000
4 – AAA Central (Macon) 1,000,000
4 – AAA Rutland 1,000,000
5 – AAA Cedar Grove 1,000,000
5 – AAA Lovett 980,564 6,284 13,152
5 – AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 14,647 100,615 884,738
5 – AAA Pace Academy 4,789 893,099 1,250 100,862
5 – AAA Towers 2 100,860 899,138
5 – AAA Redan 1,000,000
5 – AAA McNair 1,000,000
5 – AAA Stone Mountain 1,000,000
6 – AAA Calhoun 995,945 4,055
6 – AAA North Murray 2,700 667,004 330,296
6 – AAA Bremen 1,158 286,299 575,429 137,114
6 – AAA Ringgold 158 35,685 82,047 19,224 862,886
6 – AAA Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 39 9,925 79,105 120,808 790,123
6 – AAA Adairsville 1,087 262,064 526,972 209,877
6 – AAA Sonoraville 1,353 328,943 669,704
6 – AAA Murray County 2 4,053 995,945
6 – AAA Haralson County 1,000,000
6 – AAA Coahulla Creek 1,000,000
7 – AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 978,882 21,118
7 – AAA Dawson County 21,118 978,882
7 – AAA North Hall 1,000,000
7 – AAA East Hall 1,000,000
7 – AAA Lumpkin County 1,000,000
7 – AAA Union County 1,000,000
7 – AAA Fannin County 1,000,000
8 – AAA Morgan County 1,000,000
8 – AAA Monroe Area 1,000,000
8 – AAA Hart County 997,819 2,181
8 – AAA Jackson County 2,181 997,819
8 – AAA Franklin County 1,000,000
8 – AAA East Jackson 1,000,000

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
2 – AA 254,375 745,625 85,690 1,300 4 429,703 570,297 23,953 445,274 1.25
1 – AA 156,363 843,637 316,484 6,987 1 585,514 414,486 52,642 223,311 3.48
8 – AA 224,299 775,701 628 465,587 534,413 18 192,103 4.21
6 – AA 720,465 279,535 936 847,016 152,984 30 89,492 10.17
3 – AA 675,839 324,161 4,060 7 877,752 122,248 49 26,095 37.32
5 – AA 672,319 327,681 27,559 25 937,495 62,505 949 15,749 62.50
4 – AA 906,738 93,262 858 968,734 31,266 50 4,234 235.18
7 – AA 837,188 162,812 3,040 5 965,918 34,082 28 3,742 266.24

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 9-0 77.06 1,000,000 4.63 939,884 710,935 550,250 438,191 1.28
Rabun County 8 – AA 9-0 66.44 1,000,000 4.44 959,543 775,518 534,387 192,101 4.21
Thomasville 1 – AA 9-0 68.17 1,000,000 3.98 890,020 711,957 271,742 163,103 5.13
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 8-1 66.72 1,000,000 3.45 948,317 277,084 152,841 89,490 10.17
Brooks County 1 – AA 7-1 63.61 1,000,000 3.10 558,872 431,320 189,752 59,678 15.76
Dodge County 3 – AA 9-0 58.81 1,000,000 2.89 443,485 315,368 121,722 26,046 37.39
Heard County 5 – AA 8-1 56.52 1,000,000 3.07 815,971 241,247 37,916 12,745 77.46
Toombs County 2 – AA 8-1 55.24 1,000,000 2.26 424,754 105,047 42,048 6,920 143.51
Rockmart 7 – AA 7-2 50.49 1,000,000 2.72 547,517 145,159 33,107 3,630 274.48
Screven County 4 – AA 8-0 52.70 1,000,000 2.21 285,192 64,126 22,846 3,236 308.02
Callaway 5 – AA 8-1 51.36 1,000,000 2.44 432,493 113,028 25,486 3,004 331.89
Jefferson County 4 – AA 9-0 49.78 1,000,000 1.99 165,420 29,824 8,470 998 1,001.00
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-5 48.67 1,000,000 1.49 142,706 23,780 5,631 530 1,885.79
Vidalia 2 – AA 4-4 46.82 1,000,000 1.19 31,010 11,594 1,795 153 6,534.95
Pepperell 7 – AA 6-3 42.47 1,000,000 2.04 172,363 19,801 976 111 9,008.01
Washington County 3 – AA 4-5 41.41 1,000,000 1.47 37,866 6,252 363 34 29,410.76
Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-3 39.00 673,546 1.09 25,821 4,492 137 12 83,332.33
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-3 38.68 830,157 0.89 20,825 3,712 97 7 142,856.14
Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-3 41.05 169,843 0.19 5,987 1,331 60 3 333,332.33
Dublin 3 – AA 5-4 33.75 1,000,000 1.36 17,790 1,767 46 3 333,332.33
Elbert County 8 – AA 7-2 34.75 1,000,000 1.56 27,120 806 44 2 499,999.00
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 5-5 30.34 1,000,000 1.62 19,519 1,928 109 1 999,999.00
Douglass 6 – AA 6-3 34.02 1,000,000 1.15 19,868 1,164 59 1 999,999.00
Coosa 7 – AA 6-3 33.52 1,000,000 1.47 19,789 515 23 1 999,999.00
Spencer 5 – AA 5-4 31.35 1,000,000 1.21 12,389 729 45
Southwest 3 – AA 4-4 35.38 326,454 0.38 5,783 349 29
Temple 5 – AA 5-4 25.18 685,416 0.91 4,843 258 7
South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-5 26.44 1,000,000 1.05 9,070 296 5
Chattooga 7 – AA 4-5 24.95 1,000,000 1.13 9,690 383 4
Berrien 1 – AA 4-5 30.08 1,000,000 1.01 1,104 52 3
Harlem 4 – AA 6-3 23.34 1,000,000 1.17 3,224 162
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-4 19.41 908,694 0.92 254 8
Banks County 8 – AA 5-4 12.03 1,000,000 1.07 1,028 4
Lamar County 5 – AA 1-8 18.74 312,538 0.32 350 2
Putnam County 8 – AA 5-4 6.06 827,574 0.84 118 1
Jordan 5 – AA 2-7 22.33 2,046 0.00 8 1
Butler 4 – AA 3-6 7.64 91,306 0.09 3
Monticello 8 – AA 2-7 -2.61 126,335 0.13 2
Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -8.16 46,091 0.05 2
Bacon County 2 – AA 5-4 40.93
Northeast 3 – AA 4-4 28.37
Washington 6 – AA 3-6 22.20
Metter 2 – AA 3-6 18.75
Therrell 6 – AA 2-7 15.60
Early County 1 – AA 2-7 14.93
KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-6 13.81
Dade County 7 – AA 3-6 11.83
Laney 4 – AA 2-7 10.70
Bryan County 2 – AA 0-8 4.57
Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-7 2.82
Armuchee 7 – AA 1-8 0.72
Model 7 – AA 1-8 0.43
East Laurens 3 – AA 0-9 0.26
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-8 -3.38
Josey 4 – AA 1-8 -11.31
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-9 -31.08

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AA Thomasville 890,409 88,483 21,108
1 – AA Brooks County 105,538 889,003 714 4,745
1 – AA Fitzgerald 4,053 20,942 972,716 2,289
1 – AA Berrien 1,572 5,462 992,966
1 – AA Early County 1,000,000
2 – AA Benedictine 1,000,000
2 – AA Toombs County 1,000,000
2 – AA Vidalia 1,000,000
2 – AA Jeff Davis 830,157 169,843
2 – AA Swainsboro 169,843 830,157
2 – AA Bacon County 1,000,000
2 – AA Metter 1,000,000
2 – AA Bryan County 1,000,000
3 – AA Dodge County 1,000,000
3 – AA Bleckley County 382,786 245,849 44,911 326,454
3 – AA Dublin 331,693 285,521 382,786
3 – AA Washington County 285,521 450,805 263,674
3 – AA Southwest 17,825 308,629 673,546
3 – AA Northeast 1,000,000
3 – AA East Laurens 1,000,000
4 – AA Screven County 607,443 392,557
4 – AA Jefferson County 392,557 607,443
4 – AA Harlem 1,000,000
4 – AA Glenn Hills 908,694 91,306
4 – AA Butler 91,306 908,694
4 – AA Josey 1,000,000
4 – AA Laney 1,000,000
4 – AA Westside (Augusta) 1,000,000
5 – AA Heard County 1,000,000
5 – AA Callaway 1,000,000
5 – AA Temple 642,475 42,941 314,584
5 – AA Spencer 357,525 642,475
5 – AA Lamar County 312,538 687,462
5 – AA Jordan 2,046 997,954
6 – AA Hapeville Charter 1,000,000
6 – AA B.E.S.T. Academy 1,000,000
6 – AA Douglass 1,000,000
6 – AA South Atlanta 1,000,000
6 – AA KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 1,000,000
6 – AA Therrell 1,000,000
6 – AA Washington 1,000,000
7 – AA Rockmart 1,000,000
7 – AA Pepperell 867,676 47,647 84,677
7 – AA Chattooga 132,324 23,665 844,011
7 – AA Coosa 928,688 71,312
7 – AA Dade County 1,000,000
7 – AA Model 1,000,000
7 – AA Armuchee 1,000,000
7 – AA Gordon Central 1,000,000
8 – AA Rabun County 1,000,000
8 – AA Elbert County 900,810 99,190
8 – AA Banks County 99,190 900,810
8 – AA Putnam County 827,574 172,426
8 – AA Monticello 126,335 873,665
8 – AA Social Circle 46,091 953,909
8 – AA Oglethorpe County 1,000,000

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Irwin County 2 – A 8-1 52.37 1,000,000 922,755 748,336 517,107 347,841 1.87
Clinch County 2 – A 7-2 51.15 1,000,000 861,737 648,909 394,804 248,265 3.03
Manchester 4 – A 9-0 47.48 1,000,000 802,454 527,740 336,714 155,486 5.43
Macon County 4 – A 7-2 47.25 1,000,000 794,809 519,739 324,106 147,775 5.77
Charlton County 2 – A 6-2 38.86 1,000,000 602,291 247,268 89,275 25,165 38.74
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 8-1 38.80 1,000,000 520,928 235,571 80,497 22,765 42.93
Commerce 8 – A 7-2 36.74 1,000,000 593,263 224,457 65,933 16,369 60.09
Marion County 4 – A 8-1 36.85 1,000,000 389,258 167,012 50,714 12,237 80.72
Trion 6 – A 7-2 36.32 1,000,000 349,787 146,753 44,153 9,741 101.66
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-1 33.36 1,000,000 487,649 155,272 38,413 7,299 136.01
Taylor County 4 – A 7-2 30.04 999,997 218,382 63,093 11,429 1,547 645.41
Dooly County 4 – A 3-6 30.74 981,652 149,874 50,440 10,356 1,471 678.81
Turner County 2 – A 6-3 28.87 1,000,000 175,486 48,856 8,415 1,020 979.39
Lincoln County 7 – A 5-4 28.82 996,863 160,298 42,933 7,429 950 1,051.63
Telfair County 2 – A 4-5 29.16 999,930 125,769 28,911 5,305 726 1,376.41
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 5-4 27.71 1,000,000 153,185 37,679 5,786 683 1,463.13
Schley County 4 – A 6-3 28.03 608,095 68,163 13,724 2,111 272 3,675.47
Mitchell County 1 – A 8-1 19.59 1,000,000 239,479 41,249 3,584 190 5,262.16
Pelham 1 – A 8-1 17.40 1,000,000 223,036 31,882 2,235 98 10,203.08
Jenkins County 3 – A 7-2 20.81 1,000,000 81,945 12,245 1,117 71 14,083.51
Towns County 8 – A 4-5 19.17 946,424 42,031 5,037 404 27 37,036.04
Montgomery County 3 – A 6-3 14.85 186,871 4,247 447 35 2 499,999.00
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 6-3 10.35 1,000,000 18,478 1,780 66
Miller County 1 – A 6-3 6.00 1,000,000 7,938 329 5
Johnson County 3 – A 5-4 8.38 331,911 2,563 152 5
Seminole County 1 – A 5-4 2.81 948,257 4,195 186 2
Wilcox County 2 – A 2-7 15.47
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 2-6 7.68
Bowdon 6 – A 2-7 6.96
Claxton 3 – A 2-7 6.95
Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-7 6.89
Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-7 6.70
Atkinson County 2 – A 1-8 6.13
Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-8 4.06
Hancock Central 7 – A 2-7 1.79
Greene County 7 – A 3-6 0.88
Lanier County 2 – A 1-8 -3.36
Wheeler County 3 – A 4-5 -3.46
Portal 3 – A 1-8 -5.93
Greenville 4 – A 2-7 -8.09
Twiggs County 7 – A 0-9 -10.87
Treutlen 3 – A 1-8 -11.72
Terrell County 1 – A 2-7 -15.09
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 2-7 -15.95
Warren County 7 – A 0-9 -17.22
Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-6 -17.33
Calhoun County 1 – A 2-7 -17.90
Crawford County 4 – A 3-6 -20.60
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-7 -23.06
Stewart County 1 – A 1-8 -34.42

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
1 – A Mitchell County 590,274 746,450 253,550
1 – A Pelham 409,726 954,333 45,667
1 – A Chattahoochee County 4,108 995,892
1 – A Miller County 1,000,000
1 – A Seminole County 948,257 51,743
1 – A Randolph-Clay 1,000,000
1 – A Calhoun County 1,000,000
1 – A Terrell County 1,000,000
1 – A Baconton Charter 1,000,000
1 – A Stewart County 1,000,000
2 – A Irwin County 1,000,000 1,000,000
2 – A Clinch County 947,086 52,914
2 – A Charlton County 613,149 386,851
2 – A Turner County 19 999,981
2 – A Telfair County 999,930 70
2 – A Wilcox County 1,000,000
2 – A Atkinson County 1,000,000
2 – A Lanier County 1,000,000
3 – A Emanuel County Institute 509,894 747,716 252,284
3 – A Jenkins County 131 999,869
3 – A Johnson County 331,911 668,089
3 – A Montgomery County 186,871 813,129
3 – A McIntosh County Academy 1,000,000
3 – A Portal 1,000,000
3 – A Claxton 1,000,000
3 – A Treutlen 1,000,000
3 – A Wheeler County 1,000,000
4 – A Macon County 527,135 762,318 237,682
4 – A Manchester 472,865 758,159 241,841
4 – A Marion County 124,903 875,097
4 – A Taylor County 999,997 3
4 – A Dooly County 981,652 18,348
4 – A Schley County 608,095 391,905
4 – A Hawkinsville 1,000,000
4 – A Crawford County 1,000,000
4 – A Greenville 1,000,000
4 – A Central (Talbotton) 1,000,000
6 – A Mount Zion (Carroll) 284,372 483,466 516,534
6 – A Trion 21,143 978,857
6 – A Gordon Lee 1,000,000
6 – A Bowdon 1,000,000
7 – A Washington-Wilkes 133 999,867
7 – A Lincoln County 996,863 3,137
7 – A Greene County 1,000,000
7 – A Wilkinson County 1,000,000
7 – A Warren County 1,000,000
7 – A Twiggs County 1,000,000
7 – A Hancock Central 1,000,000
8 – A Commerce 836,886 163,114
8 – A Towns County 946,424 53,576

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 9-0 70.48 1,000,000 984,621 961,937 893,477 786,744 0.27
Athens Academy 8 – A 9-0 54.86 1,000,000 931,104 752,931 487,650 120,070 7.33
Wesleyan 5 – A 8-2 47.32 1,000,000 866,470 433,463 171,979 24,694 39.50
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 9-0 46.24 1,000,000 861,267 528,016 145,364 24,404 39.98
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 8-1 46.56 1,000,000 862,857 482,740 127,281 23,115 42.26
Stratford Academy 7 – A 9-0 44.94 1,000,000 841,994 422,307 125,983 17,160 57.28
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 7-2 36.37 1,000,000 369,531 61,647 10,761 1,047 954.11
Darlington 6 – A 6-3 37.25 1,000,000 177,522 63,193 10,670 947 1,054.97
Calvary Day 3 – A 8-1 31.96 1,000,000 524,045 104,219 7,530 579 1,726.12
Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-2 32.62 1,000,000 325,902 35,221 5,027 392 2,550.02
George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-2 30.82 1,000,000 352,389 29,887 4,849 257 3,890.05
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-3 30.42 1,000,000 331,901 21,447 2,954 218 4,586.16
Aquinas 7 – A 6-3 29.67 1,000,000 114,723 31,612 1,994 149 6,710.41
First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-2 30.55 1,000,000 108,412 25,512 2,029 140 7,141.86
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-4 27.42 1,000,000 39,850 8,087 798 25 39,999.00
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 5-4 24.86 1,000,000 64,758 10,055 366 18 55,554.56
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 7-2 24.70 1,000,000 63,136 9,458 402 13 76,922.08
Mount de Sales 7 – A 5-4 23.73 976,965 42,138 5,741 223 11 90,908.09
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 5-4 23.84 848,373 36,571 3,876 191 7 142,856.14
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 6-3 24.92 1,000,000 22,929 3,983 341 6 166,665.67
Walker 6 – A 4-5 20.35 751,870 20,228 1,792 48 2 499,999.00
Brookstone 4 – A 5-4 21.24 325,056 10,367 823 18 1 999,999.00
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 4-5 16.34 767,253 12,664 352 11 1 999,999.00
Savannah Christian 3 – A 4-4 18.56 911,014 17,374 916 30
Athens Christian 8 – A 4-5 16.38 970,407 11,654 554 17
Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-6 15.17 328,936 3,489 190 4
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-5 15.98 120,126 2,104 41 3
St. Francis 6 – A 3-6 10.61
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-7 7.47
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-8 3.24
Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-8 1.27
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-7 -1.64
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-8 -1.68
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-9 -6.34
Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-9 -7.55
Pacelli 4 – A 0-9 -42.52

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
3 – A Calvary Day 490,106 726,799 273,201
3 – A Savannah Country Day 1,000,000
3 – A Savannah Christian 911,014 88,986
4 – A Brookstone 325,056 674,944
4 – A Pacelli 1,000,000
5 – A Eagle’s Landing Christian 1,000,000 1,000,000
5 – A Wesleyan 1,000,000
5 – A Mount Vernon Presbyterian 369,533 630,467
5 – A Our Lady of Mercy 31 999,969
5 – A Strong Rock Christian 767,253 232,747
5 – A Holy Innocents 328,936 671,064
5 – A Landmark Christian 1,000,000
6 – A Mount Paran Christian 715,628 993,011 6,989
6 – A Mount Pisgah Christian 146,449 853,551
6 – A Darlington 28 999,972
6 – A Whitefield Academy 1,000,000
6 – A Fellowship Christian 848,373 151,627
6 – A Walker 751,870 248,130
6 – A North Cobb Christian 120,126 879,874
6 – A Pinecrest Academy 1,000,000
6 – A St. Francis 1,000,000
6 – A Christian Heritage 1,000,000
6 – A King’s Ridge Christian 1,000,000
7 – A Stratford Academy 842,194 993,188 6,812
7 – A Aquinas 157,806 157,806 842,194
7 – A Tattnall Square 203,266 796,734
7 – A First Presbyterian 92 999,908
7 – A Mount de Sales 976,965 23,035
8 – A Athens Academy 732,455 1,000,000
8 – A Prince Avenue Christian 267,545 1,000,000
8 – A George Walton Academy 409,797 590,203
8 – A Hebron Christian Academy 1,000,000
8 – A Athens Christian 970,407 29,593
8 – A Lakeview Academy 1,000,000
8 – A Riverside Military Academy 1,000,000
8 – A Providence Christian 1,000,000

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