Maxwell Week 11 Summary: Class AAAAAA churn continues

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– Mays relatively mild 34-24 win over Alexander combined with Coffee’s 37-14 victory over Valdosta has resulted in a new top-rated Class AAAAAA team for the second consecutive week. The Trojans of Coffee have a chance to solidify or lose their position when they visit the Trojans of Lee County this coming weekend. Lee County was the top-rated team in Class AAAAAA as recently as two weeks ago when they were replaced by Mays following a loss to . . . Valdosta.
– Cartersville continues to creep up on Lowndes as the highest rated team in the state. The highest rated team has come from the largest classification in all but four years since 2000. In three of those years (2007, 2010, and 2013) small-school powerhouse Buford was the highest rated team in the state while Northside (Warner Robins) took the top spot in 2006 from Class AAAA, then the second largest classification. Passing Lowndes will almost certainly involve a Viking loss, but Cartersville running the table in Class AAAA seems all but a given.  They are still rated nearly three touchdowns better than their closest competitor, Ridgeland.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.63%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,714 of 1,844 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.95%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.49 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 0.99

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 10-0 95.79 1 Coffee 6-2 73.19
2 Walton 9-0 87.82 2 Mays 8-1 69.98
3 Grayson 8-1 87.32 3 Glynn Academy 5-3 68.78
4 Archer 9-0 85.49 4 Lee County 8-1 68.38
5 North Gwinnett 8-1 83.70 5 Brunswick 6-2 66.42
6 Tift County 8-1 83.23 6 Tucker 8-1 65.62
7 Brookwood 7-2 82.20 7 Harrison 7-2 64.26
8 South Forsyth 9-0 76.75 8 Northside (Warner Robins) 7-3 63.90
9 Colquitt County 7-3 76.49 9 Richmond Hill 7-1 63.27
10 McEachern 7-2 74.63 10 Valdosta 3-6 59.71
11 Parkview 6-3 72.36 11 Douglas County 8-1 57.15
12 Mill Creek 6-3 70.95 12 Dalton 7-2 56.90
13 Newton 6-3 69.82 13 Allatoona 6-3 55.92
14 Milton 7-2 69.61 14 Alpharetta 8-1 55.03
15 Hillgrove 6-3 67.87 15 Dacula 5-4 54.74
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 7-1 87.76 1 Cartersville 9-0 91.60
2 Stockbridge 9-0 77.83 2 Ridgeland 9-0 72.04
3 Rome 9-0 77.31 3 Marist 9-0 67.47
4 Warner Robins 9-0 75.28 4 Burke County 9-0 66.78
5 Jones County 8-1 69.26 5 Cedartown 8-1 63.56
6 Wayne County 7-1 62.18 6 Blessed Trinity 7-2 61.05
7 Bainbridge 7-2 58.38 7 Troup 8-1 60.52
8 Dutchtown 7-2 58.27 8 Thomson 7-1 60.25
9 Eagle’s Landing 6-4 58.01 9 Mary Persons 7-2 57.96
10 Starr’s Mill 8-1 57.59 10 Jefferson 7-2 53.97
11 Carrollton 7-2 54.28 11 St. Pius X 4-5 53.55
12 Kell 5-4 54.26 12 Heritage (Ringgold) 8-1 53.51
13 Flowery Branch 8-1 54.03 13 Americus-Sumter 7-2 52.19
14 Ware County 3-5 52.08 14 West Laurens 5-4 51.78
15 Griffin 8-1 51.48 15 Woodward Academy 9-1 50.82
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 8-1 75.96 1 Benedictine 9-0 77.04
2 Peach County 8-1 69.94 2 Thomasville 9-0 68.07
3 Cedar Grove 9-0 69.31 3 Hapeville Charter 8-1 66.66
4 Calhoun 8-1 67.02 4 Rabun County 9-0 66.42
5 Crisp County 7-1 57.27 5 Brooks County 7-1 63.55
6 Bremen 8-1 48.51 6 Dodge County 9-0 58.77
7 Jenkins 9-0 46.78 7 Heard County 8-1 56.55
8 Lovett 5-4 46.46 8 Toombs County 8-1 55.22
9 Pace Academy 4-4 44.07 9 Screven County 8-0 52.69
10 Westside (Macon) 6-3 43.39 10 Callaway 8-1 51.35
11 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-5 43.09 11 Rockmart 7-2 50.52
12 Monroe Area 8-1 42.68 12 Jefferson County 9-0 49.79
13 Morgan County 8-1 41.25 13 Fitzgerald 4-5 48.50
14 Cook 4-5 40.60 14 Vidalia 4-4 46.80
15 Dawson County 7-2 39.19 15 Pepperell 6-3 42.48
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 8-1 52.00 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 9-0 70.51
2 Clinch County 7-2 51.00 2 Athens Academy 9-0 54.68
3 Manchester 9-0 47.46 3 Wesleyan 8-2 47.27
4 Macon County 7-2 47.07 4 Mount Paran Christian 8-1 46.60
5 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-1 38.82 5 Prince Avenue Christian 9-0 46.10
6 Charlton County 6-2 38.78 6 Stratford Academy 9-0 44.84
7 Marion County 8-1 36.80 7 Darlington 6-3 37.30
8 Commerce 7-2 36.60 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 7-2 36.40
9 Trion 7-2 36.37 9 Tattnall Square 7-2 32.55
10 Emanuel County Institute 8-1 33.22 10 Calvary Day 8-1 31.89
11 Dooly County 3-6 30.64 11 George Walton Academy 7-2 30.66
12 Taylor County 7-2 29.91 12 First Presbyterian 7-2 30.47
13 Telfair County 4-5 29.16 13 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 6-3 30.44
14 Turner County 6-3 28.90 14 Aquinas 6-3 29.58
15 Lincoln County 5-4 28.78 15 Hebron Christian Academy 5-4 27.29

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 10-0 95.79 59.72 20
2 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 91.60 50.36 51
3 [2] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 9-0 87.82 54.54 26
4 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 7-1 87.76 32.85 209
5 [3] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 8-1 87.32 61.46 16
6 [4] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 9-0 85.49 62.96 11
7 [5] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 8-1 83.70 62.83 12
8 [6] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-1 83.23 63.95 9
9 [7] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 7-2 82.20 64.04 8
10 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 9-0 77.83 51.59 44
11 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 9-0 77.31 44.36 94
12 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 9-0 77.04 41.96 118
13 [8] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 9-0 76.75 47.34 74
14 [9] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-3 76.49 69.27 2
15 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 75.96 28.97 258
16 [4] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 9-0 75.28 48.50 65
17 [10] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 74.63 59.24 21
18 [1] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 73.19 61.60 15
19 [11] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 72.36 53.40 36
20 [2] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-0 72.04 32.16 216
21 [12] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 6-3 70.95 60.16 19
22 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 9-0 70.51 31.58 221
23 [2] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 69.98 42.71 108
24 [2] Peach County 4 – AAA 8-1 69.94 36.26 168
25 [13] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-3 69.82 53.83 30
26 [14] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 69.61 54.20 27
27 [3] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 9-0 69.31 32.98 206
28 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-1 69.26 45.29 88
29 [3] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 5-3 68.78 63.35 10
30 [4] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 68.38 48.78 63
31 [2] Thomasville 1 – AA 9-0 68.07 33.92 197
32 [15] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.87 61.45 17
33 [3] Marist 7 – AAAA 9-0 67.47 42.83 106
34 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 8-1 67.02 34.03 196
35 [4] Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-0 66.78 36.74 164
36 [16] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 66.73 65.31 6
37 [3] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 8-1 66.66 33.47 202
38 [5] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 66.42 52.81 39
39 [4] Rabun County 8 – AA 9-0 66.42 23.66 312
40 [6] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 8-1 65.62 35.28 179
41 [17] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 65.50 49.95 56
42 [7] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 7-2 64.26 49.82 58
43 [8] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 63.90 53.25 37
44 [18] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 63.87 53.82 31
45 [5] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 8-1 63.56 43.02 104
46 [5] Brooks County 1 – AA 7-1 63.55 42.29 114
47 [9] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-1 63.27 39.95 136
48 [19] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-2 62.87 34.93 183
49 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 7-1 62.18 44.41 93
50 [20] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 61.46 51.13 46
51 [21] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 61.11 56.26 24
52 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 61.05 46.86 78
53 [22] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 60.62 53.83 29
54 [7] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-1 60.52 30.13 242
55 [8] Thomson 3 – AAAA 7-1 60.25 28.46 262
56 [23] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 5-4 59.79 58.37 23
57 [10] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 3-6 59.71 67.78 3
58 [6] Dodge County 3 – AA 9-0 58.77 35.81 171
59 [7] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 7-2 58.38 36.24 169
60 [8] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 7-2 58.27 43.90 97
61 [24] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 6-3 58.04 48.20 67
62 [9] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 6-4 58.01 51.29 45
63 [9] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 7-2 57.96 38.49 144
64 [10] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.59 42.63 109
65 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 7-1 57.27 36.07 170
66 [11] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 57.15 35.76 173
67 [12] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-2 56.90 43.01 105
68 [25] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 56.58 55.71 25
69 [7] Heard County 5 – AA 8-1 56.55 31.20 226
70 [26] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 2-7 56.45 69.89 1
71 [27] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 5-4 56.18 50.36 52
72 [13] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-3 55.92 48.18 69
73 [8] Toombs County 2 – AA 8-1 55.22 26.50 282
74 [14] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 8-1 55.03 34.35 191
75 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 54.74 48.38 66
76 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 9-0 54.68 17.82 361
77 [11] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 7-2 54.28 43.23 101
78 [12] Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-4 54.26 50.01 55
79 [13] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 8-1 54.03 32.39 212
80 [10] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 7-2 53.97 38.35 146
81 [28] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-6 53.87 67.03 4
82 [11] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 4-5 53.55 53.78 32
83 [12] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-1 53.51 23.27 316
84 [16] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-2 53.06 38.34 147
85 [17] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-3 53.02 42.02 117
86 [18] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 52.92 47.77 71
87 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 8-0 52.69 8.15 396
88 [29] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-6 52.31 61.13 18
89 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 7-2 52.19 37.76 152
90 [14] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 3-5 52.08 62.73 13
91 [1] Irwin County 2 – A 8-1 52.00 30.44 238
92 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-4 51.97 52.18 41
93 [14] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-4 51.78 49.31 62
94 [19] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 4-5 51.77 53.51 33
95 [31] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 51.51 43.64 98
96 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 51.48 38.04 150
97 [10] Callaway 5 – AA 8-1 51.35 29.71 247
98 [20] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-2 51.09 31.13 228
99 [32] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-2 51.05 32.08 218
100 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 7-2 51.00 26.79 279
101 [15] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 9-1 50.82 26.02 288
102 [21] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.58 43.60 99
103 [11] Rockmart 7 – AA 7-2 50.52 26.44 283
104 [12] Jefferson County 4 – AA 9-0 49.79 14.49 375
105 [16] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-3 49.36 36.64 166
106 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-1 49.35 31.91 220
107 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-4 48.99 45.50 87
108 [6] Bremen 6 – AAA 8-1 48.51 24.39 305
109 [13] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-5 48.50 49.69 60
110 [34] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 48.38 45.08 90
111 [16] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 6-3 48.12 42.73 107
112 [17] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 4-5 48.09 49.81 59
113 [18] Ola 4 – AAAAA 4-5 48.01 50.97 47
114 [19] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-5 47.60 50.26 54
115 [3] Manchester 4 – A 9-0 47.46 9.28 391
116 [22] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-3 47.40 39.09 140
117 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-2 47.27 25.34 292
118 [4] Macon County 4 – A 7-2 47.07 27.80 270
119 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 4-4 46.80 47.75 73
120 [7] Jenkins 3 – AAA 9-0 46.78 20.51 334
121 [18] Cairo 1 – AAAA 6-3 46.67 40.61 129
122 [23] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 46.65 40.27 133
123 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 8-1 46.60 20.68 331
124 [8] Lovett 5 – AAA 5-4 46.46 40.86 125
125 [24] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-7 46.41 62.27 14
126 [25] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 46.19 40.83 126
127 [26] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 7-3 46.13 34.80 184
128 [19] White County 7 – AAAA 7-2 46.12 34.12 195
129 [5] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 9-0 46.10 18.92 347
130 [35] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 4-5 45.77 47.94 70
131 [27] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 45.76 42.04 116
132 [20] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 6-3 45.52 39.56 139
133 [20] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-2 45.32 29.06 257
134 [36] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-5 45.20 50.27 53
135 [21] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-6 45.18 52.83 38
136 [6] Stratford Academy 7 – A 9-0 44.84 16.51 367
137 [22] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 7-2 44.53 32.12 217
138 [28] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 8-1 44.32 31.04 230
139 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-6 44.09 50.51 48
140 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 4-4 44.07 41.01 124
141 [23] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 7-2 43.47 30.30 239
142 [10] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-3 43.39 34.37 190
143 [29] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 43.35 42.45 112
144 [11] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 4-5 43.09 45.87 85
145 [12] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 8-1 42.68 19.94 338
146 [24] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 42.57 41.03 123
147 [30] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-5 42.54 46.73 80
148 [25] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 7-2 42.49 26.02 289
149 [15] Pepperell 7 – AA 6-3 42.48 29.26 252
150 [21] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-2 42.37 29.46 249
151 [31] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 41.85 39.69 138
152 [26] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-5 41.58 46.74 79
153 [16] Washington County 3 – AA 4-5 41.39 44.27 95
154 [13] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-1 41.25 19.23 346
155 [17] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-3 41.03 34.42 189
156 [18] Bacon County 2 – AA 5-4 40.94 37.72 153
157 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-4 40.87 37.86 151
158 [14] Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 40.60 47.75 72
159 [38] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 40.11 66.99 5
160 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-4 39.93 38.06 149
161 [24] Spalding 2 – AAAA 3-5 39.91 45.13 89
162 [25] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-4 39.75 31.01 231
163 [32] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-3 39.52 34.27 193
164 [39] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 2-7 39.49 53.45 35
165 [15] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-2 39.19 24.98 298
166 [26] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 5-4 39.00 36.69 165
167 [19] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-3 38.98 25.04 297
168 [16] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-3 38.97 26.69 281
169 [27] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 6-3 38.96 28.79 259
170 [33] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 38.82 30.76 235
171 [5] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 8-1 38.82 17.11 365
172 [6] Charlton County 2 – A 6-2 38.78 26.21 285
173 [27] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 4-5 38.70 41.38 121
174 [20] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 5-3 38.70 27.00 275
175 [34] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-6 38.65 47.17 76
176 [28] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-7 38.46 53.46 34
177 [28] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-4 38.43 35.08 182
178 [17] Liberty County 2 – AAA 6-3 37.99 29.10 255
179 [29] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 3-6 37.61 41.79 119
180 [29] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-3 37.53 31.51 223
181 [30] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-3 37.32 27.42 271
182 [7] Darlington 6 – A 6-3 37.30 26.71 280
183 [31] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-6 37.27 51.62 43
184 [30] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-5 37.07 38.47 145
185 [7] Marion County 4 – A 8-1 36.80 13.59 379
186 [35] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 2-7 36.73 46.37 81
187 [8] Commerce 8 – A 7-2 36.60 18.28 355
188 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 7-2 36.40 19.74 340
189 [31] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-6 36.38 42.50 111
190 [9] Trion 6 – A 7-2 36.37 17.19 363
191 [32] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 5-4 36.12 33.72 199
192 [36] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 35.96 46.96 77
193 [33] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-3 35.57 29.90 245
194 [37] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 35.47 48.75 64
195 [21] Southwest 3 – AA 4-4 35.37 35.25 180
196 [34] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-6 34.91 42.57 110
197 [35] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-5 34.89 36.75 163
198 [22] Elbert County 8 – AA 7-2 34.73 14.22 377
199 [36] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-9 34.40 54.05 28
200 [38] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 34.27 39.79 137
201 [40] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-7 34.13 49.50 61
202 [23] Douglass 6 – AA 6-3 34.00 23.50 313
203 [24] Dublin 3 – AA 5-4 33.72 28.38 263
204 [37] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-6 33.65 45.72 86
205 [25] Coosa 7 – AA 6-3 33.55 21.96 327
206 [38] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 4-5 33.53 35.54 176
207 [39] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-6 33.51 43.15 102
208 [40] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 33.46 44.68 92
209 [10] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-1 33.22 8.84 392
210 [32] Perry 2 – AAAA 4-5 33.20 35.24 181
211 [18] North Murray 6 – AAA 6-3 32.96 20.42 335
212 [41] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 32.81 40.44 131
213 [19] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-4 32.67 26.12 286
214 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-8 32.65 64.74 7
215 [9] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-2 32.55 14.08 378
216 [33] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-6 32.42 46.31 83
217 [20] Adairsville 6 – AAA 5-4 32.30 28.56 260
218 [34] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-2 32.24 10.18 389
219 [10] Calvary Day 3 – A 8-1 31.89 9.59 390
220 [39] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-6 31.88 38.91 141
221 [42] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 31.73 42.12 115
222 [43] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-7 31.39 47.31 75
223 [26] Spencer 5 – AA 5-4 31.34 29.45 250
224 [40] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 5-4 31.28 26.93 276
225 [35] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-6 31.28 34.68 187
226 [41] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-6 31.23 40.07 135
227 [42] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-8 30.89 50.49 49
228 [11] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-2 30.66 16.06 370
229 [11] Dooly County 4 – A 3-6 30.64 37.16 160
230 [44] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-6 30.54 36.62 167
231 [12] First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-2 30.47 14.27 376
232 [45] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 30.46 24.79 302
233 [13] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-3 30.44 24.74 304
234 [21] Monroe 1 – AAA 3-5 30.40 37.54 155
235 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 5-5 30.32 31.19 227
236 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 4-5 30.03 35.45 177
237 [12] Taylor County 4 – A 7-2 29.91 0.71 405
238 [36] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 29.76 36.90 162
239 [46] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 29.60 44.70 91
240 [14] Aquinas 7 – A 6-3 29.58 18.17 359
241 [37] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-5 29.58 31.96 219
242 [43] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-8 29.58 46.35 82
243 [22] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-4 29.42 24.06 307
244 [23] Hart County 8 – AAA 2-7 29.37 40.73 127
245 [47] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 29.24 37.68 154
246 [24] East Hall 7 – AAA 5-4 29.23 25.22 295
247 [13] Telfair County 2 – A 4-5 29.16 29.14 254
248 [25] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-6 28.99 33.83 198
249 [14] Turner County 2 – A 6-3 28.90 22.32 323
250 [15] Lincoln County 7 – A 5-4 28.78 20.28 337
251 [44] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 5-4 28.40 23.23 317
252 [29] Northeast 3 – AA 4-4 28.34 29.89 246
253 [48] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-8 28.14 38.53 143
254 [38] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-4 28.00 23.85 310
255 [16] Schley County 4 – A 6-3 27.94 15.39 372
256 [17] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 5-4 27.68 25.08 296
257 [42] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-6 27.68 40.43 132
258 [26] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-5 27.37 29.42 251
259 [27] Pierce County 2 – AAA 4-4 27.37 26.90 277
260 [28] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-4 27.34 30.17 241
261 [15] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-4 27.29 19.37 343
262 [39] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-5 27.23 30.08 243
263 [29] Jackson 4 – AAA 5-4 26.82 23.91 308
264 [43] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-8 26.82 46.10 84
265 [40] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-8 26.74 43.33 100
266 [30] South Atlanta 6 – AA 5-5 26.41 27.02 274
267 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 26.38 37.20 159
268 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-9 26.21 49.92 57
269 [41] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-6 25.73 34.69 186
270 [45] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-5 25.53 29.48 248
271 [46] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-8 25.33 40.45 130
272 [31] Temple 5 – AA 5-4 25.18 18.26 356
273 [16] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 5-4 25.08 27.37 272
274 [32] Chattooga 7 – AA 4-5 24.98 23.76 311
275 [17] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 6-3 24.96 20.53 333
276 [47] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-7 24.83 34.32 192
277 [18] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 7-2 24.61 8.51 394
278 [19] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 5-4 23.93 18.11 360
279 [30] Towers 5 – AAA 4-5 23.75 29.07 256
280 [20] Mount de Sales 7 – A 5-4 23.65 18.19 358
281 [33] Harlem 4 – AA 6-3 23.34 11.84 383
282 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 23.27 31.12 229
283 [31] Jackson County 8 – AAA 5-4 23.19 23.05 319
284 [42] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 5-4 23.13 22.15 326
285 [51] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-8 23.02 43.96 96
286 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-9 22.53 58.61 22
287 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 2-7 22.32 33.58 201
288 [48] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-6 22.18 32.93 207
289 [35] Washington 6 – AA 3-6 22.17 33.09 205
290 [52] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 21.32 38.07 148
291 [49] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-8 21.28 37.11 161
292 [32] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-2 21.28 8.29 395
293 [43] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-5 21.26 24.35 306
294 [21] Brookstone 4 – A 5-4 21.24 13.21 380
295 [50] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-6 21.11 30.21 240
296 [51] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-9 20.94 42.37 113
297 [33] Savannah 3 – AAA 4-4 20.85 18.30 354
298 [18] Jenkins County 3 – A 7-2 20.68 8.77 393
299 [52] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-5 20.45 22.66 321
300 [22] Walker 6 – A 4-5 20.38 25.24 294
301 [53] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-7 20.04 40.21 134
302 [19] Mitchell County 1 – A 8-1 19.71 -8.10 414
303 [36] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-4 19.38 19.28 345
304 [20] Towns County 8 – A 4-5 19.01 27.85 269
305 [37] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-8 18.75 38.73 142
306 [44] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-10 18.71 52.36 40
307 [38] Metter 2 – AA 3-6 18.66 34.59 188
308 [53] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 18.50 48.19 68
309 [34] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-4 18.43 16.27 369
310 [23] Savannah Christian 3 – A 4-4 18.43 17.57 362
311 [35] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-5 18.37 23.46 314
312 [36] Union County 7 – AAA 5-4 18.30 22.95 320
313 [37] Beach 3 – AAA 5-3 18.23 10.76 388
314 [38] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-7 18.21 32.92 208
315 [39] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 18.09 29.96 244
316 [21] Pelham 1 – A 8-1 17.54 -7.84 413
317 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-8 17.47 37.50 156
318 [54] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 17.19 50.47 50
319 [40] Redan 5 – AAA 3-6 17.00 30.80 234
320 [55] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 16.51 30.64 236
321 [24] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 4-5 16.41 19.60 342
322 [25] Athens Christian 8 – A 4-5 16.20 20.58 332
323 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 2-7 16.12 41.03 122
324 [26] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 4-5 16.01 20.29 336
325 [41] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-7 15.63 31.00 232
326 [39] Therrell 6 – AA 2-7 15.59 32.32 213
327 [22] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-7 15.47 32.25 215
328 [45] Henry County 4 – AAAA 2-7 15.30 33.25 203
329 [27] Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-6 15.19 27.95 267
330 [46] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-5 15.14 16.38 368
331 [40] Early County 1 – AA 2-7 14.95 43.03 103
332 [23] Montgomery County 3 – A 6-3 14.68 6.72 401
333 [41] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-6 13.78 23.41 315
334 [47] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-8 13.49 34.24 194
335 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-8 13.07 41.76 120
336 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-8 12.85 37.37 157
337 [42] Banks County 8 – AA 5-4 11.94 7.62 399
338 [43] Dade County 7 – AA 3-6 11.88 25.45 291
339 [42] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-6 11.41 22.54 322
340 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 10.93 30.84 233
341 [44] Laney 4 – AA 2-7 10.67 33.64 200
342 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 3-6 10.62 19.84 339
343 [24] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 6-3 10.50 0.06 407
344 [48] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-8 10.29 35.81 172
345 [43] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-8 8.28 32.66 210
346 [25] Johnson County 3 – A 5-4 8.25 7.05 400
347 [45] Butler 4 – AA 3-6 7.64 17.15 364
348 [26] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 2-6 7.55 18.33 352
349 [29] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-7 7.33 25.28 293
350 [27] Bowdon 6 – A 2-7 7.01 27.34 273
351 [28] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-7 6.92 18.31 353
352 [29] Claxton 3 – A 2-7 6.85 19.33 344
353 [30] Atkinson County 2 – A 1-8 6.64 35.28 178
354 [31] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-7 6.56 24.78 303
355 [32] Miller County 1 – A 6-3 6.15 -9.27 415
356 [46] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-4 6.01 7.95 398
357 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-8 5.96 32.52 211
358 [45] McNair 5 – AAA 3-6 5.83 18.21 357
359 [46] Islands 3 – AAA 2-7 5.45 23.15 318
360 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-7 5.18 32.29 214
361 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-8 4.99 31.46 224
362 [47] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-8 4.52 37.23 158
363 [48] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-9 4.27 31.43 225
364 [33] Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-8 4.04 30.52 237
365 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-8 2.98 25.50 290
366 [34] Seminole County 1 – A 5-4 2.97 -5.64 411
367 [49] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-8 2.91 31.56 222
368 [48] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-7 2.86 18.35 351
369 [50] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-7 2.84 23.87 309
370 [50] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-8 2.70 27.88 268
371 [51] Long County 2 – AAA 0-9 2.11 28.46 261
372 [35] Hancock Central 7 – A 2-7 1.70 15.82 371
373 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-8 1.28 24.91 299
374 [52] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-7 1.25 26.83 278
375 [36] Greene County 7 – A 3-6 0.82 11.41 387
376 [49] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-8 0.72 22.29 324
377 [50] Model 7 – AA 1-8 0.49 24.88 300
378 [51] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-9 0.20 35.73 174
379 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-8 -0.96 28.00 266
380 [32] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-7 -1.59 18.85 348
381 [33] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-8 -1.84 26.21 284
382 [52] Monticello 8 – AA 2-7 -2.68 11.72 385
383 [37] Lanier County 2 – A 1-8 -3.12 26.04 287
384 [53] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-8 -3.41 17.06 366
385 [38] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-5 -3.73 -1.31 409
386 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-8 -5.01 18.52 350
387 [39] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -6.12 15.15 374
388 [34] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-9 -6.32 24.82 301
389 [35] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-9 -7.45 29.14 253
390 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -7.62 28.13 265
391 [40] Greenville 4 – A 2-7 -7.98 20.72 330
392 [54] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -8.29 19.62 341
393 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-8 -9.94 33.20 204
394 [41] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-9 -10.97 28.31 264
395 [54] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-7 -11.17 18.75 349
396 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-8 -11.27 20.95 329
397 [42] Treutlen 3 – A 1-8 -12.08 12.55 382
398 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -12.74 51.95 42
399 [55] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-9 -13.16 35.62 175
400 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-6 -14.50 -0.80 408
401 [43] Terrell County 1 – A 2-7 -14.91 3.66 403
402 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 2-7 -15.90 15.38 373
403 [45] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-6 -17.11 -4.21 410
404 [46] Warren County 7 – A 0-9 -17.27 21.87 328
405 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-7 -17.68 3.69 402
406 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-9 -19.18 40.64 128
407 [56] Groves 3 – AAA 1-8 -19.67 12.87 381
408 [48] Crawford County 4 – A 3-6 -20.44 2.40 404
409 [49] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-7 -22.85 0.27 406
410 [57] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -23.69 22.18 325
411 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-9 -24.62 34.75 185
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-8 -26.46 11.84 384
413 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-9 -31.44 8.12 397
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-8 -34.09 -7.28 412
415 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 2-7 -41.14 -19.73 416
416 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-9 -42.33 11.69 386
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 2-6 -48.92 -48.78 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -64.91 -28.72 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 90.69 78.41
2 8 – AAAAAAA 83.74 60.10
3 5 – AAAA 77.94 51.12
4 4 – AAAAAAA 77.68 59.08
5 7 – AAAAAAA 76.01 53.85
6 6 – AAAAAAA 75.64 52.16
7 3 – AAAAAAA 74.51 62.70
8 1 – AAAAAA 73.28 62.69
9 5 – AAAAAAA 72.25 54.42
10 8 – AAAAA 71.85 37.79
11 4 – AAAAA 71.77 50.43
12 2 – AAAAAA 69.86 58.60
13 7 – AAAAA 66.50 44.92
14 1 – AAAAA 65.67 43.97
15 2 – AA 64.96 40.88
16 1 – AA 64.22 46.42
17 5 – AAAAAA 63.91 43.91
18 7 – AAAA 63.38 48.73
19 6 – AAAAAA 62.52 46.97
20 6 – AAAA 60.77 35.28
21 3 – AAAA 60.03 33.19
22 7 – AAA 59.35 25.78
23 2 – AAAAAAA 58.38 47.07
24 5 – AAA 57.78 30.79
25 4 – AAAAAA 57.34 37.47
26 5 – A 56.71 26.32
27 2 – AAAAA 56.64 42.35
28 4 – AAA 56.32 27.75
29 2 – AAAA 55.47 42.54
30 3 – AAAAA 55.30 40.27
31 6 – AAA 54.15 25.76
6-South – AAA 57.14 35.76
6-North – AAA 31.11 17.64
32 8 – AAAA 53.99 40.48
33 8 – AAAAAA 52.40 38.76
34 6 – AA 52.22 27.39
35 3 – AA 51.77 35.11
36 5 – AA 51.51 32.98
37 3 – AAAAAA 50.95 38.66
38 7 – AAAAAA 50.90 33.57
39 1 – AAAA 50.64 34.56
40 8 – AA 49.79 7.10
41 2 – A 49.43 27.95
42 1 – AAA 48.64 29.94
43 6 – AAAAA 48.44 32.02
44 8 – A 47.86 23.39
45 4 – AA 46.09 16.54
46 4 – A 45.59 17.58
4-Div B – A 40.65 23.34
4-Div A – A 39.12 7.48
47 6 – A 45.00 19.87
6-Div B – A 40.00 19.63
6-Div A – A 38.90 20.15
48 4 – AAAA 45.00 23.16
49 7 – AA 44.10 19.89
50 8 – AAA 41.33 25.61
51 7 – A 40.36 18.18
7-Div A – A 39.66 23.11
7-Div B – A 28.89 13.00
52 5 – AAAAA 38.48 25.66
53 3 – AAA 38.00 15.15
54 2 – AAA 34.46 19.65
55 3 – A 33.17 12.21
3-Div A – A 28.60 13.99
3-Div B – A 26.97 10.27
56 1 – A 17.68 -4.93

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 17.67 85.4% 0.164
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 55.03 99.6% 0.223
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 14.12 80.4% 0.224
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 16.72 84.2% 0.239
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 15.05 81.8% 0.268
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 – 31 14.62 81.2% 0.285
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 14 – 17 13.29 79.1% 0.295
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 12.99 78.6% 0.295
09/29 South Atlanta KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 7 – 10 12.63 77.9% 0.306
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 10.44 74.0% 0.311
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 12.41 77.6% 0.319
10/06 Eagle’s Landing Ola 13 – 31 9.01 71.1% 0.320
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 10.22 73.5% 0.329
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 – 46 11.52 76.0% 0.333
08/25 Elbert County Washington-Wilkes 15 – 33 8.04 69.1% 0.339

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.39 10/13 Grayson Archer 3 – 6 0.84 52.1%
86.38 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 11.57 76.1%
85.34 08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 – 28 4.12 60.2%
83.94 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 6.61 65.9%
83.58 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 3.29 58.1%
79.05 10/20 Tift County Colquitt County 38 – 35 5.74 64.0%
78.25 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 – 25 6.70 66.2%
77.91 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 51 – 45 20.29 88.4%
76.71 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 13.69 79.7%
75.47 09/15 Tift County Parkview 50 – 37 9.87 72.9%
75.40 10/20 Brookwood Parkview 30 – 27 8.85 70.8%
75.34 09/22 Tift County Coffee 33 – 31 11.03 75.1%
74.04 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 – 13 13.54 79.5%
74.00 09/29 Warner Robins Coffee 52 – 49 3.08 57.6%
73.29 09/01 Lowndes Parkview 64 – 38 24.42 92.0%

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