Maxwell Week 10 Summary: Mays replaces Lee County at top of AAAAAA

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– Valdosta dumped top rated Lee County 31-28 to cause a of shuffle in Class AAAAAA.  Mays moves up after pounding South Paulding 42-0 and Coffee takes the second spot after shaving Northside (Warner Robins) 14-12. Although Region 1-AAAAAA is down compared to last year, they still have four of the top nine spots, including 3-5 Valdosta.
– Meanwhile, Tucker, who has rolled to a 7-1 record by an average score of 43-13, keeps slipping in the ratings. Their two toughest opponents, Colquitt County and Kell, have themselves not proven to be quite as strong as they had in the past. Colquitt County, a 35-21 winner over Tucker early in the season, now looks to be the third best team in Region 1-AAAAAAA while Kell, who the Tigers edged 28-27 in overtime to open the season, has slipped to 4-4 under first-year coach Brett Sloan and have given up more points than any Longhorn team in a decade with still yet two more games left to play. Tucker won’t be able to prove much against 1-7 Mount Zion of Jonesboro this coming weekend, but they’ll close out the season against a decent Stephenson team.
– Cartersville pushed past a rating of 90.00 off the strength of a 62-0 drubbing of Chapel Hill. The Purple Hurricanes are nearly 20 points better than Class AAAA’s second highest rated team, Ridgeland. That’s the largest gap between any highest- and second-highest rated team in any classification.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 1.99%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,538 of 1,649 total games including 0 tie(s) (93.33%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.04 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.02

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 9-0 98.37 1 Mays 7-1 71.10
2 Grayson 7-1 88.33 2 Coffee 5-2 70.60
3 Walton 8-0 86.90 3 Lee County 8-1 68.63
4 Archer 8-0 86.40 4 Richmond Hill 7-0 66.95
5 Tift County 8-1 82.65 5 Glynn Academy 4-3 66.83
6 North Gwinnett 7-1 82.46 6 Tucker 7-1 66.25
7 Brookwood 6-2 80.55 7 Northside (Warner Robins) 6-3 65.08
8 South Forsyth 8-0 76.89 8 Harrison 6-2 63.93
9 Colquitt County 7-2 75.79 9 Valdosta 3-5 60.75
10 McEachern 6-2 74.71 10 Brunswick 5-2 60.47
11 Mill Creek 6-3 71.12 11 Douglas County 7-1 58.35
12 Parkview 5-3 71.03 12 Hughes 7-2 57.61
13 Newton 5-3 69.91 13 Allatoona 5-3 56.40
14 Milton 6-2 69.55 14 Dalton 6-2 55.71
15 Norcross 4-4 67.25 15 Alpharetta 7-1 55.21
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 6-1 84.07 1 Cartersville 9-0 90.99
2 Rome 8-0 76.22 2 Ridgeland 8-0 71.23
3 Stockbridge 8-0 74.38 3 Marist 8-0 69.68
4 Warner Robins 8-0 73.81 4 Cedartown 7-1 64.87
5 Jones County 8-0 70.75 5 Burke County 8-0 62.01
6 Wayne County 6-1 59.26 6 Troup 7-1 61.90
7 Starr’s Mill 7-1 58.30 7 Blessed Trinity 7-2 61.47
8 Bainbridge 6-2 57.88 8 Thomson 7-0 61.37
9 Dutchtown 6-2 57.10 9 Mary Persons 6-2 57.46
10 Eagle’s Landing 5-4 56.00 10 Jefferson 6-2 55.65
11 Kell 4-4 54.75 11 St. Pius X 3-5 54.37
12 Ware County 3-4 54.29 12 Heritage (Ringgold) 8-1 53.49
13 Flowery Branch 8-1 54.23 13 Americus-Sumter 6-2 52.35
14 Carrollton 6-2 52.97 14 Woodward Academy 8-1 51.99
15 Griffin 8-1 51.73 15 West Laurens 4-4 50.51
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 8-1 78.56 1 Benedictine 8-0 75.08
2 Cedar Grove 8-0 71.07 2 Hapeville Charter 7-1 66.20
3 Peach County 7-1 69.00 3 Rabun County 8-0 65.56
4 Calhoun 7-1 61.61 4 Brooks County 7-0 64.37
5 Crisp County 6-1 56.41 5 Dodge County 8-0 59.49
6 Lovett 5-3 53.17 6 Thomasville 8-0 58.07
7 Bremen 8-0 49.93 7 Heard County 7-1 56.82
8 Westside (Macon) 5-3 44.75 8 Callaway 7-1 51.40
9 Jenkins 8-0 44.58 9 Jefferson County 8-0 50.12
10 Westminster (Atlanta) 3-5 43.74 10 Rockmart 6-2 49.98
11 Monroe Area 7-1 42.19 11 Screven County 7-0 49.87
12 Morgan County 7-1 41.17 12 Fitzgerald 3-5 48.90
13 Pace Academy 3-4 39.52 13 Vidalia 4-3 47.82
14 Pike County 6-2 39.23 14 Swainsboro 6-2 45.06
15 Dawson County 6-2 39.19 15 Toombs County 7-1 44.78
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 7-1 51.67 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 8-0 69.23
2 Clinch County 6-2 48.39 2 Athens Academy 8-0 52.20
3 Macon County 6-2 46.85 3 Wesleyan 7-2 48.59
4 Manchester 8-0 46.45 4 Prince Avenue Christian 8-0 48.05
5 Charlton County 6-1 39.42 5 Mount Paran Christian 7-1 45.14
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 7-1 39.29 6 Stratford Academy 8-0 44.47
7 Commerce 7-1 38.35 7 Mount Pisgah Christian 7-1 39.00
8 Trion 6-2 37.23 8 Darlington 6-3 37.75
9 Marion County 7-1 35.32 9 Aquinas 6-2 34.66
10 Emanuel County Institute 7-1 32.24 10 Tattnall Square 7-1 33.60
11 Turner County 5-3 29.79 11 Calvary Day 7-1 33.14
12 Dooly County 3-5 29.70 12 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 6-2 31.86
13 Washington-Wilkes 4-4 29.30 13 Hebron Christian Academy 5-3 30.90
14 Telfair County 3-5 28.63 14 First Presbyterian 6-2 29.13
15 Taylor County 6-2 28.41 15 Mount de Sales 5-3 27.54

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 9-0 98.37 57.58 22
2 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 90.99 50.53 53
3 [2] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 7-1 88.33 69.91 3
4 [3] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 8-0 86.90 53.87 32
5 [4] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 8-0 86.40 65.54 6
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 6-1 84.07 33.74 203
7 [5] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-1 82.65 62.85 12
8 [6] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 7-1 82.46 63.31 10
9 [7] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 6-2 80.55 63.20 11
10 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 78.56 29.58 254
11 [8] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 8-0 76.89 50.61 51
12 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 8-0 76.22 43.69 99
13 [9] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-2 75.79 66.59 4
14 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 8-0 75.08 43.79 97
15 [10] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 6-2 74.71 59.73 19
16 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 8-0 74.38 48.94 63
17 [4] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 8-0 73.81 50.75 50
18 [2] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 8-0 71.23 35.52 182
19 [11] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 6-3 71.12 60.25 17
20 [1] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 71.10 42.44 110
21 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 8-0 71.07 37.56 162
22 [12] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 5-3 71.03 54.59 31
23 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-0 70.75 41.93 114
24 [2] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-2 70.60 60.63 16
25 [13] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 5-3 69.91 57.42 25
26 [3] Marist 7 – AAAA 8-0 69.68 47.20 74
27 [14] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 6-2 69.55 56.50 27
28 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 8-0 69.23 32.75 216
29 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 7-1 69.00 36.24 173
30 [3] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 68.63 48.91 65
31 [15] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 4-4 67.25 61.46 14
32 [4] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 7-0 66.95 35.05 186
33 [5] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 4-3 66.83 63.75 9
34 [6] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 7-1 66.25 38.74 147
35 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 7-1 66.20 36.42 171
36 [16] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 6-2 65.70 50.59 52
37 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 8-0 65.56 29.24 259
38 [7] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 6-3 65.08 55.25 28
39 [4] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 7-1 64.87 40.93 124
40 [4] Brooks County 1 – AA 7-0 64.37 38.61 149
41 [8] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 6-2 63.93 48.92 64
42 [17] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.92 57.68 21
43 [18] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.76 59.88 18
44 [19] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 7-2 63.47 39.05 144
45 [20] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 62.25 57.43 24
46 [5] Burke County 3 – AAAA 8-0 62.01 33.16 210
47 [6] Troup 5 – AAAA 7-1 61.90 30.75 244
48 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 7-1 61.61 31.16 237
49 [7] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 61.47 46.93 77
50 [8] Thomson 3 – AAAA 7-0 61.37 19.58 341
51 [9] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 3-5 60.75 66.22 5
52 [21] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 6-2 60.74 52.82 37
53 [10] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-2 60.47 48.41 67
54 [22] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 5-3 59.92 52.18 43
55 [23] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 2-6 59.75 71.13 1
56 [5] Dodge County 3 – AA 8-0 59.49 34.73 191
57 [6] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 6-1 59.26 42.53 108
58 [11] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 58.35 39.12 142
59 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-1 58.30 44.88 92
60 [24] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-2 58.26 49.45 60
61 [6] Thomasville 1 – AA 8-0 58.07 29.59 253
62 [8] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 6-2 57.88 36.82 164
63 [25] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 57.74 52.80 38
64 [12] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-2 57.61 42.28 111
65 [9] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 6-2 57.46 40.22 129
66 [9] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 6-2 57.10 45.65 85
67 [26] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 5-3 56.85 46.44 81
68 [7] Heard County 5 – AA 7-1 56.82 32.63 219
69 [27] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-4 56.69 52.06 44
70 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 6-1 56.41 38.22 155
71 [13] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 5-3 56.40 50.48 54
72 [10] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 5-4 56.00 51.38 46
73 [14] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 6-2 55.71 44.17 94
74 [10] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 6-2 55.65 39.48 138
75 [15] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-1 55.21 37.38 163
76 [16] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 6-2 54.79 41.79 115
77 [11] Kell 7 – AAAAA 4-4 54.75 52.24 42
78 [11] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 3-5 54.37 58.19 20
79 [12] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 3-4 54.29 61.76 13
80 [13] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 8-1 54.23 31.91 227
81 [28] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-5 53.73 64.42 7
82 [12] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-1 53.49 21.22 329
83 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 5-3 53.17 41.95 113
84 [14] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 6-2 52.97 43.65 100
85 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 5-3 52.59 45.05 91
86 [13] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 6-2 52.35 40.28 128
87 [29] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-3 52.31 45.34 89
88 [2] Athens Academy 8 – A 8-0 52.20 16.42 364
89 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-4 52.05 52.28 41
90 [14] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 8-1 51.99 30.45 245
91 [31] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-5 51.79 57.05 26
92 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 51.73 38.11 156
93 [18] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 51.72 48.74 66
94 [1] Irwin County 2 – A 7-1 51.67 33.35 205
95 [8] Callaway 5 – AA 7-1 51.40 30.05 249
96 [19] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-2 51.37 41.56 118
97 [32] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 7-1 50.97 27.22 287
98 [33] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 4-4 50.64 43.99 95
99 [15] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 4-4 50.51 50.88 49
100 [9] Jefferson County 4 – AA 8-0 50.12 16.86 361
101 [10] Rockmart 7 – AA 6-2 49.98 29.39 256
102 [7] Bremen 6 – AAA 8-0 49.93 20.67 334
103 [11] Screven County 4 – AA 7-0 49.87 3.24 406
104 [16] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-3 49.85 47.06 76
105 [16] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 7-1 49.75 34.67 192
106 [17] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 6-3 49.35 38.97 145
107 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-3 49.25 42.44 109
108 [12] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 3-5 48.90 53.56 35
109 [17] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 4-4 48.69 48.32 68
110 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 7-2 48.59 29.34 257
111 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 6-2 48.39 23.69 312
112 [20] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 6-2 48.34 29.30 258
113 [21] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 3-5 48.32 53.79 34
114 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 8-0 48.05 22.62 319
115 [13] Vidalia 2 – AA 4-3 47.82 45.35 88
116 [18] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-4 47.49 46.93 78
117 [22] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 5-3 47.10 40.15 130
118 [23] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 5-4 47.06 42.84 105
119 [3] Macon County 4 – A 6-2 46.85 31.10 239
120 [4] Manchester 4 – A 8-0 46.45 11.49 383
121 [19] Ola 4 – AAAAA 3-5 46.33 52.79 39
122 [20] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-5 46.25 51.75 45
123 [24] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 5-3 46.01 41.27 122
124 [21] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 5-3 45.84 41.52 120
125 [25] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-4 45.56 43.96 96
126 [5] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 7-1 45.14 19.18 350
127 [26] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 6-3 45.11 35.54 181
128 [14] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-2 45.06 33.24 207
129 [27] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 7-1 44.96 32.12 224
130 [18] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-1 44.90 27.84 279
131 [35] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-5 44.87 49.56 59
132 [15] Toombs County 2 – AA 7-1 44.78 20.88 330
133 [8] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-3 44.75 38.60 150
134 [28] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 5-3 44.62 39.25 140
135 [19] Cairo 1 – AAAA 5-3 44.61 39.68 136
136 [9] Jenkins 3 – AAA 8-0 44.58 20.31 338
137 [6] Stratford Academy 7 – A 8-0 44.47 14.68 372
138 [29] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-6 44.44 60.94 15
139 [22] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 6-2 44.18 34.30 195
140 [20] White County 7 – AAAA 6-2 44.17 32.61 220
141 [23] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 6-2 44.10 32.69 218
142 [21] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-3 43.99 27.84 278
143 [10] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 3-5 43.74 50.89 48
144 [22] Eastside 4 – AAAA 6-2 43.61 27.88 277
145 [30] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 3-5 43.23 50.04 56
146 [24] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-4 43.01 45.32 90
147 [11] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 7-1 42.19 19.24 348
148 [36] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-4 42.15 45.58 86
149 [25] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-2 42.14 26.30 294
150 [26] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-5 41.97 43.19 103
151 [16] Pepperell 7 – AA 5-3 41.80 33.76 202
152 [37] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 3-5 41.46 47.15 75
153 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-3 41.37 36.74 168
154 [27] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 6-2 41.22 25.59 301
155 [12] Morgan County 8 – AAA 7-1 41.17 21.92 325
156 [38] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-7 41.08 70.27 2
157 [31] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 40.68 31.03 242
158 [39] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 2-6 40.14 51.24 47
159 [24] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-5 40.10 44.76 93
160 [25] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 4-4 39.91 39.17 141
161 [32] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-6 39.82 48.29 69
162 [26] Howard 2 – AAAA 6-2 39.79 31.48 234
163 [17] Bacon County 2 – AA 4-4 39.57 39.75 135
164 [13] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 3-4 39.52 39.06 143
165 [5] Charlton County 2 – A 6-1 39.42 22.21 322
166 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 7-1 39.29 20.54 335
167 [14] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-2 39.23 24.08 310
168 [15] Dawson County 7 – AAA 6-2 39.19 26.57 293
169 [27] Spalding 2 – AAAA 2-5 39.07 46.24 82
170 [7] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 7-1 39.00 17.21 359
171 [28] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 4-4 38.85 39.91 133
172 [18] Washington County 3 – AA 3-5 38.76 45.71 84
173 [29] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-4 38.64 36.79 165
174 [30] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-4 38.64 39.29 139
175 [7] Commerce 8 – A 7-1 38.35 15.92 369
176 [28] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-7 38.20 52.59 40
177 [33] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 38.07 39.85 134
178 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 6-2 37.95 31.62 233
179 [8] Darlington 6 – A 6-3 37.75 27.09 289
180 [35] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-5 37.75 47.86 72
181 [16] Liberty County 2 – AAA 5-3 37.74 32.23 223
182 [29] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 3-6 37.64 41.55 119
183 [8] Trion 6 – A 6-2 37.23 19.19 349
184 [30] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 5-3 37.13 28.20 271
185 [31] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 5-4 36.98 36.75 167
186 [31] Pickens 6 – AAAA 4-4 36.64 36.76 166
187 [36] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 1-7 36.37 50.24 55
188 [19] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-2 36.37 19.72 340
189 [32] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-4 36.33 37.93 158
190 [20] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-2 36.29 20.13 339
191 [33] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-6 36.28 49.75 58
192 [21] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 5-4 35.91 34.81 188
193 [17] Cook 1 – AAA 3-5 35.72 48.97 62
194 [22] Douglass 6 – AA 5-3 35.58 25.60 300
195 [9] Marion County 4 – A 7-1 35.32 11.18 388
196 [34] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-5 35.21 45.41 87
197 [37] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-6 35.13 46.80 79
198 [35] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-3 35.13 30.08 248
199 [23] Southwest 3 – AA 3-4 35.08 38.67 148
200 [38] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 3-6 34.67 39.98 132
201 [9] Aquinas 7 – A 6-2 34.66 17.51 357
202 [36] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 4-4 34.40 32.86 213
203 [37] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-5 34.34 40.96 123
204 [40] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-6 34.20 48.25 70
205 [24] Dublin 3 – AA 5-4 34.14 28.82 263
206 [38] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 5-3 34.10 25.75 298
207 [32] Perry 2 – AAAA 4-4 34.01 33.15 211
208 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-7 33.94 64.35 8
209 [10] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-1 33.60 11.29 385
210 [39] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-5 33.41 40.68 126
211 [39] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-5 33.32 41.60 117
212 [18] Pierce County 2 – AAA 4-3 33.21 28.62 268
213 [11] Calvary Day 3 – A 7-1 33.14 11.58 382
214 [40] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-5 33.06 38.54 151
215 [19] East Hall 7 – AAA 5-3 32.93 25.00 302
216 [40] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 32.85 49.82 57
217 [41] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 32.72 43.03 104
218 [25] Spencer 5 – AA 5-3 32.68 27.26 286
219 [33] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-5 32.56 43.71 98
220 [20] Adairsville 6 – AAA 4-4 32.54 32.85 214
221 [26] Coosa 7 – AA 5-3 32.48 24.80 306
222 [42] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-5 32.31 40.11 131
223 [43] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-6 32.27 46.68 80
224 [10] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 7-1 32.24 8.82 398
225 [12] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-2 31.86 23.04 315
226 [44] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-3 31.85 20.68 333
227 [21] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 4-4 31.61 29.79 251
228 [41] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-7 31.60 49.18 61
229 [27] Berrien 1 – AA 4-4 31.21 33.87 200
230 [34] Madison County 8 – AAAA 4-4 31.21 31.05 240
231 [13] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-3 30.90 17.71 356
232 [45] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 3-5 30.69 36.54 170
233 [22] Hart County 8 – AAA 2-6 30.68 40.69 125
234 [23] North Murray 6 – AAA 5-3 30.62 20.81 331
235 [35] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-3 30.53 22.06 324
236 [24] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-5 30.41 41.30 121
237 [42] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-6 30.12 37.98 157
238 [28] Temple 5 – AA 5-3 30.07 17.92 355
239 [43] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-7 29.84 43.41 101
240 [11] Turner County 2 – A 5-3 29.79 23.90 311
241 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 3-5 29.70 35.88 179
242 [25] Ringgold 6 – AAA 4-4 29.57 27.98 274
243 [36] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-5 29.35 33.71 204
244 [13] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-4 29.30 30.11 247
245 [44] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-9 29.19 55.10 30
246 [29] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 4-3 29.16 22.68 318
247 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 6-2 29.13 13.67 374
248 [46] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-7 29.06 38.30 154
249 [37] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 2-6 28.93 35.12 183
250 [30] Washington 6 – AA 4-5 28.90 34.24 197
251 [31] Northeast 3 – AA 4-3 28.89 26.89 291
252 [45] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 4-4 28.65 28.47 269
253 [14] Telfair County 2 – A 3-5 28.63 31.75 231
254 [47] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-6 28.41 42.58 107
255 [15] Taylor County 4 – A 6-2 28.41 4.71 405
256 [48] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 28.36 37.73 161
257 [26] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-5 28.04 29.99 250
258 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-7 27.95 43.35 102
259 [49] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 27.95 33.23 208
260 [15] Mount de Sales 7 – A 5-3 27.54 16.87 360
261 [27] Jackson 4 – AAA 4-4 27.53 28.78 265
262 [46] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 4-4 27.45 28.89 261
263 [16] George Walton Academy 8 – A 6-2 27.37 14.57 373
264 [38] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-7 26.92 41.67 116
265 [39] Westover 1 – AAAA 3-5 26.77 32.58 221
266 [43] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 3-5 26.72 39.58 137
267 [17] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 5-4 26.38 28.40 270
268 [40] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-4 26.26 27.73 281
269 [41] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-5 26.22 33.19 209
270 [28] Appling County 2 – AAA 2-4 25.97 31.85 229
271 [16] Lincoln County 7 – A 4-4 25.88 18.49 353
272 [47] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-7 25.62 37.79 160
273 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-4 25.55 24.72 307
274 [29] Towers 5 – AAA 4-4 25.32 26.71 292
275 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-8 25.21 45.83 83
276 [18] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 6-2 25.20 11.22 387
277 [30] North Hall 7 – AAA 3-6 24.75 33.87 201
278 [19] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 4-4 24.62 21.49 328
279 [31] Jackson County 8 – AAA 4-4 24.58 27.72 282
280 [17] Schley County 4 – A 5-3 24.46 12.47 379
281 [50] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-5 24.44 31.04 241
282 [51] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 24.41 40.52 127
283 [52] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-7 24.32 41.97 112
284 [20] Walker 6 – A 4-4 23.84 25.87 297
285 [18] Jenkins County 3 – A 7-1 23.79 8.58 400
286 [32] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 7-1 23.79 8.03 401
287 [32] Chattooga 7 – AA 3-5 23.26 27.06 290
288 [45] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-8 23.24 57.53 23
289 [33] Harlem 4 – AA 5-3 22.83 10.73 390
290 [21] Brookstone 4 – A 5-3 22.73 10.23 393
291 [49] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-8 22.56 42.80 106
292 [22] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 5-3 22.55 21.79 326
293 [23] Savannah Christian 3 – A 4-3 22.34 16.37 366
294 [42] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 4-4 22.33 25.67 299
295 [19] Mitchell County 1 – A 7-1 21.84 -3.90 411
296 [43] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-2 21.74 5.27 404
297 [53] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-8 21.64 53.51 36
298 [50] Grady 6 – AAAAA 1-6 21.24 35.91 178
299 [33] Savannah 3 – AAA 3-4 21.23 21.52 327
300 [34] Beach 3 – AAA 5-2 21.12 10.00 394
301 [51] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-7 21.04 35.04 187
302 [54] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-8 20.57 48.10 71
303 [52] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-6 20.41 38.34 153
304 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-7 20.36 37.90 159
305 [20] Pelham 1 – A 7-1 20.17 -7.42 415
306 [34] Jordan 5 – AA 1-7 20.10 35.98 176
307 [35] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 2-5 19.77 28.83 262
308 [36] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-6 19.48 31.46 235
309 [37] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 5-3 19.30 13.40 375
310 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-7 19.13 47.70 73
311 [38] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-7 18.52 27.95 275
312 [54] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 2-6 18.48 33.87 199
313 [35] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-7 18.46 36.41 172
314 [55] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 17.91 28.80 264
315 [39] Redan 5 – AAA 2-6 17.80 34.78 189
316 [40] Union County 7 – AAA 4-4 17.65 27.80 280
317 [24] Athens Christian 8 – A 3-5 17.44 24.14 309
318 [36] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 5-3 17.39 13.07 376
319 [25] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 4-4 17.36 16.58 363
320 [37] Metter 2 – AA 3-5 17.30 27.67 283
321 [21] Towns County 8 – A 3-5 17.13 31.88 228
322 [41] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-6 16.98 30.31 246
323 [38] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-6 16.94 28.14 272
324 [44] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-7 16.55 35.84 180
325 [22] Montgomery County 3 – A 5-3 16.43 12.08 381
326 [26] Holy Innocents 5 – A 2-6 16.34 34.47 193
327 [39] Early County 1 – AA 2-6 16.17 38.82 146
328 [27] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 3-5 15.15 23.03 316
329 [45] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-9 14.59 53.81 33
330 [40] Therrell 6 – AA 2-6 14.48 29.51 255
331 [41] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-5 13.61 22.23 321
332 [23] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 5-3 13.27 6.38 403
333 [24] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-6 12.83 32.06 225
334 [46] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-4 12.55 12.19 380
335 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-7 12.48 36.55 169
336 [42] Dade County 7 – AA 3-5 12.40 24.89 304
337 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-7 12.29 38.51 152
338 [43] Banks County 8 – AA 4-4 11.91 10.23 392
339 [25] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 2-5 11.88 19.40 345
340 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 2-6 11.53 23.17 314
341 [47] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-8 11.16 35.99 175
342 [29] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-6 10.95 27.20 288
343 [44] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-3 10.64 9.23 396
344 [48] Henry County 4 – AAAA 1-7 10.00 35.09 184
345 [42] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-6 9.80 20.51 336
346 [26] Johnson County 3 – A 4-4 9.69 11.39 384
347 [43] Islands 3 – AAA 2-6 9.58 24.99 303
348 [27] Bowdon 6 – A 2-6 9.58 30.93 243
349 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-7 9.15 35.05 185
350 [28] Miller County 1 – A 5-3 8.81 -2.22 410
351 [29] Greene County 7 – A 3-5 8.80 16.39 365
352 [45] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-7 8.71 31.95 226
353 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 1-8 8.59 33.30 206
354 [45] Laney 4 – AA 2-6 8.29 36.05 174
355 [30] Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-7 7.59 28.64 266
356 [46] Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-7 7.15 32.29 222
357 [31] Claxton 3 – A 1-7 7.11 22.89 317
358 [32] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-6 6.87 16.22 367
359 [47] Long County 2 – AAA 0-8 6.61 29.64 252
360 [48] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-7 6.45 28.04 273
361 [49] McNair 5 – AAA 3-5 5.72 12.67 378
362 [46] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-7 5.60 34.29 196
363 [50] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-8 5.55 31.10 238
364 [33] Seminole County 1 – A 5-3 5.46 -7.09 413
365 [51] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-8 4.83 32.77 215
366 [34] Atkinson County 2 – A 1-7 4.83 31.43 236
367 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-6 3.89 28.63 267
368 [47] Butler 4 – AA 2-6 3.73 19.28 347
369 [52] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-6 3.03 27.62 284
370 [35] Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-7 3.02 26.23 295
371 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-7 2.62 27.43 285
372 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-8 1.76 34.38 194
373 [49] Gordon Central 7 – AA 2-6 1.36 12.95 377
374 [50] Monticello 8 – AA 2-6 0.98 11.24 386
375 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-7 0.63 29.11 260
376 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-7 0.43 20.79 332
377 [50] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-6 0.18 22.39 320
378 [51] Model 7 – AA 1-7 0.01 23.27 313
379 [36] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-5 -0.19 2.08 407
380 [52] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-7 -0.19 19.46 344
381 [37] Portal 3 – A 1-7 -0.51 19.32 346
382 [32] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-6 -0.66 18.34 354
383 [33] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-8 -0.78 32.74 217
384 [34] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-7 -1.04 24.25 308
385 [38] Hancock Central 7 – A 1-7 -1.31 18.90 352
386 [53] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-7 -3.62 16.68 362
387 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-7 -4.51 15.66 371
388 [39] Greenville 4 – A 2-6 -5.18 19.53 343
389 [40] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-8 -5.35 31.81 230
390 [54] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -5.86 20.38 337
391 [41] Lanier County 2 – A 1-7 -6.25 24.88 305
392 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-8 -6.40 27.89 276
393 [42] Terrell County 1 – A 2-6 -6.76 9.01 397
394 [53] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-6 -7.17 19.57 342
395 [43] Treutlen 3 – A 1-7 -7.17 15.68 370
396 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-9 -7.46 55.18 29
397 [54] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-8 -7.78 26.17 296
398 [55] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-7 -8.62 31.70 232
399 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -10.98 -1.86 409
400 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-8 -11.00 33.13 212
401 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 2-6 -12.70 10.58 391
402 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-7 -13.68 16.00 368
403 [45] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-5 -13.85 -4.88 412
404 [46] Warren County 7 – A 0-8 -15.47 22.13 323
405 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-8 -15.54 34.14 198
406 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-8 -15.66 34.78 190
407 [47] Crawford County 4 – A 2-6 -17.46 9.26 395
408 [48] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-7 -21.96 8.77 399
409 [49] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-6 -22.20 -0.19 408
410 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-8 -22.41 35.94 177
411 [57] Groves 3 – AAA 0-8 -26.30 17.37 358
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-7 -26.44 10.96 389
413 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-8 -27.39 7.20 402
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-7 -32.48 -7.20 414
415 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-8 -34.86 18.99 351
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 2-7 -38.30 -17.03 416
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-6 -46.87 -36.41 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-5 -56.49 -20.20 417

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 91.87 78.38
2 8 – AAAAAAA 84.54 60.32
3 5 – AAAA 78.03 52.06
4 4 – AAAAAAA 77.20 59.18
5 6 – AAAAAAA 75.27 52.56
6 7 – AAAAAAA 75.06 53.75
7 3 – AAAAAAA 73.98 62.09
8 1 – AAAAAA 72.82 62.52
9 5 – AAAAAAA 71.81 53.73
10 4 – AAAAA 70.56 49.99
11 8 – AAAAA 69.24 37.96
12 2 – AAAAAA 68.46 57.03
13 7 – AAAAA 65.93 44.92
14 5 – AAAAAA 65.31 44.90
15 1 – AAAAA 64.61 43.76
16 7 – AAAA 64.45 48.84
17 2 – AA 62.37 38.14
18 6 – AAAAAA 62.15 46.49
19 7 – AAA 61.46 25.66
20 1 – AA 60.72 45.16
21 6 – AAAA 60.34 33.11
22 5 – AAA 59.69 31.32
23 2 – AAAAAAA 59.17 47.26
24 4 – AAAAAA 58.36 38.70
25 3 – AAAA 58.15 32.04
26 5 – A 56.38 27.74
27 4 – AAA 56.09 28.90
28 2 – AAAAA 55.78 41.69
29 3 – AAAAA 55.71 40.63
30 2 – AAAA 55.31 42.96
31 8 – AAAA 54.81 40.94
32 6 – AA 52.67 28.13
33 8 – AAAAAA 52.23 39.31
34 5 – AA 51.97 34.02
35 6 – AAA 51.88 25.68
6-South – AAA 54.44 36.10
6-North – AAA 30.25 16.96
36 3 – AA 51.37 34.34
37 1 – AAAA 51.08 35.10
38 7 – AAAAAA 50.96 34.09
39 8 – AA 49.53 9.73
40 3 – AAAAAA 49.37 37.48
41 6 – AAAAA 49.35 33.79
42 2 – A 48.56 27.28
43 8 – A 47.80 23.93
44 1 – AAA 47.05 28.80
45 4 – AAAA 45.49 24.02
46 6 – A 45.37 20.43
6-Div B – A 40.30 20.36
6-Div A – A 39.43 20.51
47 4 – AA 44.77 14.62
48 4 – A 44.67 17.01
4-Div B – A 39.60 21.68
4-Div A – A 38.31 9.34
49 7 – AA 43.36 19.07
50 8 – AAA 41.57 26.57
51 7 – A 41.29 19.78
7-Div A – A 40.08 24.36
7-Div B – A 30.65 14.89
52 5 – AAAAA 39.91 26.96
53 3 – AAA 37.55 17.28
54 2 – AAA 35.97 21.78
55 3 – A 34.52 14.63
3-Div A – A 30.48 16.58
3-Div B – A 27.97 12.53
56 1 – A 20.24 -2.26

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 16.35 83.7% 0.181
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 18.48 86.4% 0.215
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 14.49 81.0% 0.277
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 – 31 14.62 81.2% 0.285
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 14 – 17 13.63 79.6% 0.290
08/25 Grovetown North Oconee 14 – 35 10.13 73.4% 0.293
10/13 North Springs Grady 26 – 30 12.86 78.3% 0.297
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 43.02 98.7% 0.307
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 11.92 76.7% 0.312
08/25 Westside (Macon) Southwest 12 – 26 9.67 72.5% 0.317
10/06 Eagle’s Landing Ola 13 – 31 8.65 70.4% 0.327
08/25 Elbert County Washington-Wilkes 15 – 33 8.08 69.2% 0.338
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 – 46 11.06 75.1% 0.341
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 – 36 10.96 74.9% 0.342
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 8.53 70.1% 0.346

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.34 10/13 Grayson Archer 3 – 6 0.92 52.3%
85.68 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 14.70 81.3%
84.19 08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 – 28 4.44 60.9%
82.63 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 5.85 64.2%
82.40 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 7.36 67.6%
78.38 10/20 Tift County Colquitt County 38 – 35 5.85 64.2%
77.35 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 – 25 5.78 64.1%
76.80 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 23.60 91.4%
76.72 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 14.64 81.2%
74.18 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 – 13 14.26 80.6%
74.18 09/15 Tift County Parkview 50 – 37 10.60 74.3%
74.04 10/20 Brookwood Parkview 30 – 27 8.50 70.1%
73.25 09/29 North Gwinnett Mill Creek 35 – 21 12.35 77.5%
72.86 10/07 Archer Newton 20 – 19 15.47 82.5%
72.71 08/25 North Gwinnett Milton 31 – 28 11.89 76.7%

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