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Maxwell Week 9 Summary: Archer upends Grayson; Lowndes ascends to the top

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– In a battle between four unbeaten Class AAAAAAA teams, Archer downed Grayson in a 6-3 defensive slugfest while Lowndes topped Tift County in a 51-38 shootout. The end result was a shuffling in the rankings, allowing Lowndes to move into the top spot, the first time any team other than Grayson has been rated number one in the state since Week 10 of last year.
– There is roughly an 11% chance that one of those games was a preview of the state championship game. Grayson has about a 5.7% chance to have an opportunity to avenge their loss against Archer in the title game while Tift County has about a 5.6% chance to do so against Lowndes. In total, there is about a 34.5% chance that the final two will come from those four.
– Hiram shocked Carrollton for the state’s most least likely result of the season. It’s not just that Hiram won in spite of being a 29-point underdog, nor is it that Carrollton would still be a nearly two-touchdown favorite if they were to play again today, but it’s the surprising 41-14 margin of victory that makes the result stand out.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 4.97%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,381 of 1,462 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.46%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.01 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.21

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Lowndes 8-0 94.86 1 Lee County 8-0 73.64
2 Grayson 6-1 87.33 2 Mays 6-1 70.20
3 Archer 7-0 86.98 3 Tucker 6-1 68.55
4 Walton 7-0 86.08 4 Coffee 4-2 67.70
5 North Gwinnett 6-1 82.91 5 Glynn Academy 4-2 67.68
6 Brookwood 5-2 79.57 6 Northside (Warner Robins) 6-2 65.61
7 Tift County 7-1 78.96 7 Harrison 5-2 61.66
8 Colquitt County 7-1 78.07 8 Douglas County 7-1 58.11
9 South Forsyth 7-0 77.67 9 Brunswick 4-2 57.00
10 Mill Creek 6-2 76.66 10 Hughes 6-2 56.85
11 McEachern 5-2 73.85 11 Stephenson 5-2 55.86
12 Milton 5-2 71.02 12 Dalton 6-1 55.73
13 Parkview 5-2 70.46 13 Alpharetta 6-1 55.54
14 Newton 5-2 70.24 14 Valdosta 2-5 55.26
15 Norcross 3-4 68.90 15 Dacula 3-4 55.16
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 5-1 82.93 1 Cartersville 8-0 86.32
2 Rome 7-0 74.76 2 Ridgeland 7-0 66.01
3 Stockbridge 7-0 72.24 3 Marist 7-0 65.63
4 Warner Robins 8-0 71.61 4 Thomson 6-0 63.13
5 Jones County 7-0 65.41 5 Troup 7-0 62.90
6 Kell 4-3 59.00 6 Blessed Trinity 7-1 60.62
7 Starr’s Mill 7-1 57.04 7 Burke County 7-0 60.41
8 Bainbridge 5-2 56.99 8 Jefferson 6-1 59.59
9 Wayne County 5-1 55.12 9 Cedartown 6-1 54.52
10 Ware County 2-4 55.09 10 Woodward Academy 7-1 53.28
11 Clarke Central 6-2 54.25 11 Mary Persons 5-2 53.04
12 Dutchtown 5-2 53.65 12 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-1 50.01
13 Eagle’s Landing 4-4 51.88 13 St. Pius X 2-5 49.20
14 Flowery Branch 7-1 50.48 14 Americus-Sumter 5-2 49.06
15 Griffin 7-1 49.60 15 Chapel Hill 5-2 48.67
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 7-1 74.47 1 Benedictine 7-0 74.29
2 Cedar Grove 7-0 70.31 2 Hapeville Charter 6-1 62.97
3 Peach County 6-1 65.34 3 Rabun County 7-0 59.94
4 Calhoun 6-1 60.71 4 Brooks County 6-0 58.05
5 Crisp County 5-1 51.85 5 Thomasville 7-0 56.32
6 Lovett 4-3 50.01 6 Dodge County 7-0 55.08
7 Westminster (Atlanta) 3-4 46.54 7 Heard County 6-1 53.93
8 Jenkins 7-0 45.62 8 Jefferson County 8-0 50.74
9 Pace Academy 2-4 42.19 9 Callaway 6-1 49.82
10 Monroe Area 7-1 42.13 10 Fitzgerald 3-4 49.74
11 Bremen 7-0 42.10 11 Swainsboro 6-1 48.79
12 Westside (Macon) 4-3 41.61 12 Screven County 6-0 46.73
13 Morgan County 6-1 40.98 13 Rockmart 5-2 45.29
14 Pike County 6-1 38.98 14 Vidalia 3-3 40.98
15 Liberty County 4-3 37.78 15 Toombs County 6-1 39.75
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 6-1 50.12 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 7-0 65.70
2 Macon County 5-2 47.19 2 Wesleyan 6-2 45.59
3 Manchester 8-0 46.00 3 Prince Avenue Christian 8-0 44.02
4 Clinch County 5-2 45.94 4 Tattnall Square 7-0 43.78
5 Mount Zion (Carroll) 7-0 42.99 5 Stratford Academy 7-0 43.52
6 Charlton County 5-1 36.36 6 Athens Academy 7-0 43.08
7 Emanuel County Institute 6-1 35.13 7 Mount Paran Christian 6-1 40.72
8 Marion County 7-1 34.19 8 Darlington 5-3 34.71
9 Commerce 6-1 33.97 9 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-1 34.71
10 Washington-Wilkes 4-3 33.59 10 Calvary Day 6-1 33.54
11 Taylor County 6-1 32.41 11 Aquinas 5-2 30.74
12 Turner County 4-3 28.33 12 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 6-2 28.41
13 Trion 5-2 27.20 13 Mount de Sales 4-3 27.50
14 Telfair County 3-4 26.98 14 Hebron Christian Academy 4-3 24.90
15 Lincoln County 3-4 25.67 15 George Walton Academy 6-1 24.42

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-0 94.86 56.84 23
2 [2] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 6-1 87.33 68.96 3
3 [3] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 7-0 86.98 71.57 2
4 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 8-0 86.32 47.71 60
5 [4] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 7-0 86.08 54.49 29
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 5-1 82.93 40.92 116
7 [5] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-1 82.91 66.70 7
8 [6] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 5-2 79.57 60.62 15
9 [7] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-1 78.96 58.81 17
10 [8] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-1 78.07 64.91 8
11 [9] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-0 77.67 52.47 35
12 [10] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 6-2 76.66 60.44 16
13 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 7-0 74.76 43.52 90
14 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 7-1 74.47 29.95 232
15 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 7-0 74.29 41.98 111
16 [11] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 5-2 73.85 57.01 22
17 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-0 73.64 45.36 79
18 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 7-0 72.24 48.85 53
19 [4] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 8-0 71.61 49.22 50
20 [12] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-2 71.02 60.80 14
21 [13] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 5-2 70.46 47.33 64
22 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 7-0 70.31 42.29 103
23 [14] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 5-2 70.24 52.98 31
24 [2] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 6-1 70.20 45.57 76
25 [15] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 3-4 68.90 67.77 5
26 [3] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 6-1 68.55 40.65 119
27 [4] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 4-2 67.70 58.36 19
28 [5] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 4-2 67.68 61.58 13
29 [16] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 2-5 66.41 75.02 1
30 [2] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 7-0 66.01 33.63 189
31 [17] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 5-2 65.92 56.35 24
32 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 7-0 65.70 33.20 197
33 [3] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-0 65.63 41.88 112
34 [6] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 65.61 51.96 37
35 [5] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 7-0 65.41 37.48 152
36 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 6-1 65.34 39.28 136
37 [18] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 6-1 65.29 46.23 69
38 [19] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 4-3 63.74 63.11 11
39 [4] Thomson 3 – AAAA 6-0 63.13 24.13 297
40 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 6-1 62.97 35.38 173
41 [5] Troup 5 – AAAA 7-0 62.90 25.22 289
42 [20] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 6-1 61.87 49.22 51
43 [7] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 5-2 61.66 45.79 74
44 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 6-1 60.71 27.78 261
45 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-1 60.62 42.12 108
46 [7] Burke County 3 – AAAA 7-0 60.41 29.13 245
47 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 7-0 59.94 24.64 294
48 [21] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-2 59.91 51.94 38
49 [8] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 6-1 59.59 35.50 171
50 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 4-3 59.00 52.60 33
51 [22] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 4-3 58.20 54.33 30
52 [8] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 58.11 39.84 128
53 [4] Brooks County 1 – AA 6-0 58.05 35.26 176
54 [23] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 5-3 57.94 55.16 27
55 [24] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 4-3 57.87 52.47 34
56 [25] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 4-3 57.63 55.46 25
57 [26] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 5-3 57.23 46.65 67
58 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-1 57.04 43.45 91
59 [9] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 4-2 57.00 47.51 62
60 [8] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 5-2 56.99 38.99 138
61 [10] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 6-2 56.85 42.97 95
62 [27] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 6-2 56.78 34.11 184
63 [5] Thomasville 1 – AA 7-0 56.32 29.75 235
64 [11] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 5-2 55.86 45.34 81
65 [12] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 6-1 55.73 39.87 126
66 [13] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 6-1 55.54 37.07 156
67 [14] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 2-5 55.26 64.52 10
68 [28] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-2 55.24 44.36 86
69 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 3-4 55.16 54.90 28
70 [9] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 5-1 55.12 42.44 100
71 [10] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 2-4 55.09 67.05 6
72 [6] Dodge County 3 – AA 7-0 55.08 34.54 181
73 [9] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 6-1 54.52 33.10 198
74 [11] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 6-2 54.25 38.39 144
75 [7] Heard County 5 – AA 6-1 53.93 33.06 201
76 [16] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 4-3 53.66 48.29 56
77 [12] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-2 53.65 45.47 77
78 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 5-2 53.56 42.98 94
79 [29] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 2-5 53.35 62.18 12
80 [10] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 7-1 53.28 33.86 187
81 [11] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 5-2 53.04 35.76 168
82 [18] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 7-0 52.84 32.43 206
83 [30] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-4 52.79 57.17 21
84 [13] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 4-4 51.88 50.81 43
85 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 5-1 51.85 35.84 166
86 [19] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-0 51.79 29.37 242
87 [31] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 3-4 51.51 47.79 59
88 [20] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 5-2 51.42 43.59 89
89 [8] Jefferson County 4 – AA 8-0 50.74 16.51 348
90 [14] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 7-1 50.48 28.89 246
91 [1] Irwin County 2 – A 6-1 50.12 35.29 175
92 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 4-3 50.01 39.08 137
93 [12] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 7-1 50.01 21.32 317
94 [9] Callaway 5 – AA 6-1 49.82 28.79 248
95 [10] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 3-4 49.74 50.02 47
96 [15] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 7-1 49.60 36.22 162
97 [21] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 3-4 49.35 51.77 39
98 [13] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-5 49.20 57.39 20
99 [14] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-2 49.06 38.37 145
100 [32] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-2 49.05 38.98 139
101 [16] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 5-2 48.99 40.58 120
102 [11] Swainsboro 2 – AA 6-1 48.79 31.07 222
103 [15] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-2 48.67 42.30 102
104 [16] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 4-3 48.31 45.27 83
105 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 6-1 48.06 32.57 205
106 [17] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 3-4 47.66 50.96 42
107 [2] Macon County 4 – A 5-2 47.19 34.97 180
108 [22] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 4-4 47.03 45.37 78
109 [12] Screven County 4 – AA 6-0 46.73 6.91 401
110 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 4-3 46.68 44.62 85
111 [18] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 3-4 46.65 47.90 58
112 [7] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 3-4 46.54 50.63 45
113 [3] Manchester 4 – A 8-0 46.00 10.24 382
114 [4] Clinch County 2 – A 5-2 45.94 27.01 271
115 [8] Jenkins 3 – AAA 7-0 45.62 19.36 332
116 [2] Wesleyan 5 – A 6-2 45.59 31.45 218
117 [13] Rockmart 7 – AA 5-2 45.29 27.36 264
118 [18] Eastside 4 – AAAA 6-2 45.21 28.38 256
119 [24] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 4-3 45.04 40.18 123
120 [25] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 5-3 44.64 37.74 151
121 [19] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-1 44.58 28.67 250
122 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 4-3 44.23 42.19 106
123 [26] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 3-4 44.13 45.65 75
124 [20] Cairo 1 – AAAA 4-3 44.11 42.20 105
125 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 8-0 44.02 18.44 338
126 [20] Ola 4 – AAAAA 3-4 43.87 47.58 61
127 [21] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 5-2 43.80 31.60 217
128 [4] Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-0 43.78 8.55 395
129 [33] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-4 43.69 45.36 80
130 [27] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 4-3 43.66 40.44 122
131 [22] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 5-2 43.54 28.24 257
132 [5] Stratford Academy 7 – A 7-0 43.52 14.71 361
133 [23] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-5 43.41 48.59 54
134 [24] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 6-1 43.15 31.07 223
135 [6] Athens Academy 8 – A 7-0 43.08 10.18 384
136 [25] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 3-4 43.08 49.07 52
137 [5] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 7-0 42.99 13.68 365
138 [21] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 4-3 42.92 40.04 124
139 [34] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 3-4 42.73 38.54 141
140 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 2-4 42.19 47.30 65
141 [28] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 5-2 42.18 24.12 298
142 [10] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 7-1 42.13 19.37 331
143 [11] Bremen 6 – AAA 7-0 42.10 14.08 364
144 [26] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 5-2 41.92 34.02 185
145 [35] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-6 41.91 67.81 4
146 [29] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-6 41.79 58.45 18
147 [22] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-3 41.74 31.65 216
148 [12] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 4-3 41.61 37.22 154
149 [27] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-4 41.28 39.58 130
150 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 3-3 40.98 42.11 109
151 [13] Morgan County 8 – AAA 6-1 40.98 22.37 311
152 [7] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 6-1 40.72 17.18 343
153 [36] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-3 40.59 39.34 133
154 [37] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 2-5 40.14 49.34 49
155 [23] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-4 39.81 42.90 96
156 [30] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 3-5 39.79 46.07 71
157 [15] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-1 39.75 20.35 325
158 [31] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 2-5 39.63 52.28 36
159 [24] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-3 39.47 34.51 182
160 [25] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-3 39.44 35.11 178
161 [14] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-1 38.98 19.62 328
162 [16] Pepperell 7 – AA 4-3 38.80 35.55 170
163 [26] White County 7 – AAAA 5-2 38.04 29.65 236
164 [15] Liberty County 2 – AAA 4-3 37.78 35.02 179
165 [32] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 37.73 29.45 239
166 [17] Dublin 3 – AA 5-3 37.49 29.15 244
167 [28] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-5 37.41 46.70 66
168 [29] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 3-5 37.32 39.75 129
169 [27] Howard 2 – AAAA 5-2 37.27 30.22 229
170 [38] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-5 36.65 49.90 48
171 [33] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-2 36.58 31.30 220
172 [28] Perry 2 – AAAA 4-3 36.47 32.02 212
173 [39] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 6-1 36.46 20.58 323
174 [30] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-6 36.44 48.41 55
175 [18] Bacon County 2 – AA 4-3 36.42 33.97 186
176 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 3-3 36.42 37.41 153
177 [31] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 5-2 36.37 23.95 301
178 [6] Charlton County 2 – A 5-1 36.36 20.70 321
179 [34] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-5 36.17 51.66 40
180 [16] Cook 1 – AAA 3-4 35.63 43.70 87
181 [17] Dawson County 7 – AAA 5-2 35.44 23.95 300
182 [35] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 1-6 35.32 50.34 46
183 [40] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 2-5 35.28 46.04 72
184 [7] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 6-1 35.13 9.90 386
185 [41] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-6 35.02 64.61 9
186 [32] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 5-2 34.99 26.64 274
187 [36] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-4 34.90 42.64 98
188 [33] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-6 34.84 46.20 70
189 [20] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-1 34.73 14.54 363
190 [8] Darlington 6 – A 5-3 34.71 28.09 259
191 [34] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 4-3 34.71 30.64 228
192 [9] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 6-1 34.71 12.44 371
193 [29] Spalding 2 – AAAA 1-5 34.65 45.92 73
194 [30] Pickens 6 – AAAA 4-3 34.64 30.83 227
195 [35] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-4 34.55 41.33 114
196 [37] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-4 34.49 41.56 113
197 [36] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-4 34.41 38.46 143
198 [38] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 34.30 36.19 163
199 [8] Marion County 4 – A 7-1 34.19 10.23 383
200 [9] Commerce 8 – A 6-1 33.97 11.73 375
201 [31] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-2 33.90 21.07 319
202 [39] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-5 33.85 46.42 68
203 [37] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 2-5 33.75 40.96 115
204 [10] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-3 33.59 31.03 224
205 [38] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 3-5 33.59 39.85 127
206 [21] Bleckley County 3 – AA 6-2 33.57 18.41 339
207 [40] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-5 33.55 43.66 88
208 [10] Calvary Day 3 – A 6-1 33.54 11.19 380
209 [41] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 3-5 33.38 37.15 155
210 [32] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 2-5 33.29 35.91 165
211 [39] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-4 33.23 36.10 164
212 [40] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 3-4 33.17 40.70 117
213 [41] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 4-4 32.76 35.46 172
214 [33] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-3 32.55 29.22 243
215 [11] Taylor County 4 – A 6-1 32.41 0.34 409
216 [42] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 3-4 32.31 36.31 160
217 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 4-4 31.98 34.33 183
218 [42] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-5 31.89 38.36 147
219 [43] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 31.87 42.60 99
220 [34] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 3-4 31.81 35.37 174
221 [18] Adairsville 6 – AAA 4-3 31.77 28.08 260
222 [23] Coosa 7 – AA 5-2 31.67 19.30 333
223 [19] East Hall 7 – AAA 5-2 31.32 19.10 334
224 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 3-3 31.14 28.67 249
225 [24] Spencer 5 – AA 4-3 30.81 28.52 253
226 [44] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-5 30.74 42.67 97
227 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 5-2 30.74 14.94 357
228 [35] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-6 30.47 45.33 82
229 [25] Washington County 3 – AA 2-5 30.46 43.33 92
230 [26] Berrien 1 – AA 4-4 30.31 32.93 202
231 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-5 30.08 40.69 118
232 [43] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 4-3 30.07 23.57 306
233 [45] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-2 29.98 14.87 358
234 [21] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-5 29.78 39.93 125
235 [22] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 3-4 28.90 33.32 195
236 [44] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-6 28.66 38.50 142
237 [45] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-8 28.48 51.38 41
238 [12] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-2 28.41 19.38 330
239 [12] Turner County 2 – A 4-3 28.33 26.87 273
240 [23] Hart County 8 – AAA 2-5 28.27 36.79 158
241 [37] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-4 28.16 29.43 241
242 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-6 28.14 43.25 93
243 [24] North Murray 6 – AAA 4-3 28.13 24.02 299
244 [46] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-4 27.85 32.22 208
245 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-6 27.69 39.55 131
246 [13] Mount de Sales 7 – A 4-3 27.50 22.68 309
247 [25] Ringgold 6 – AAA 4-4 27.46 25.88 282
248 [38] Westover 1 – AAAA 3-4 27.29 30.18 230
249 [13] Trion 6 – A 5-2 27.20 11.97 372
250 [47] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 27.11 42.01 110
251 [14] Telfair County 2 – A 3-4 26.98 27.17 269
252 [26] Jackson 4 – AAA 4-4 26.70 28.15 258
253 [27] Temple 5 – AA 5-2 26.43 8.95 394
254 [27] Appling County 2 – AAA 1-4 26.06 35.83 167
255 [15] Lincoln County 7 – A 3-4 25.67 23.89 302
256 [28] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 4-4 25.62 23.88 303
257 [47] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 3-4 25.41 29.98 231
258 [39] Madison County 8 – AAAA 3-4 25.25 28.60 252
259 [48] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-6 24.95 32.88 203
260 [14] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 4-3 24.90 15.47 355
261 [49] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 1-6 24.83 40.53 121
262 [28] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 3-3 24.66 24.35 296
263 [29] Douglass 6 – AA 4-3 24.56 20.25 326
264 [30] Chattooga 7 – AA 2-5 24.48 30.89 226
265 [15] George Walton Academy 8 – A 6-1 24.42 7.65 398
266 [50] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-6 24.17 39.28 135
267 [31] Washington 6 – AA 3-5 24.17 33.10 199
268 [16] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-2 23.91 12.68 370
269 [16] Dooly County 4 – A 2-5 23.84 36.23 161
270 [51] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 23.49 28.40 254
271 [32] Northeast 3 – AA 3-3 23.44 24.74 293
272 [43] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-7 23.37 55.37 26
273 [48] Grady 6 – AAAAA 1-5 23.03 33.47 192
274 [17] Savannah Christian 3 – A 3-3 23.02 20.68 322
275 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 4-4 22.92 29.86 233
276 [17] Schley County 4 – A 4-3 22.91 17.80 341
277 [49] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 2-5 22.89 36.53 159
278 [52] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-7 22.74 50.73 44
279 [50] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-4 22.64 24.95 291
280 [29] North Hall 7 – AAA 3-5 22.44 27.25 265
281 [19] First Presbyterian 7 – A 5-2 22.35 9.85 388
282 [51] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-7 22.25 42.22 104
283 [18] Mitchell County 1 – A 6-1 22.18 0.78 408
284 [33] Harlem 4 – AA 5-3 22.12 11.43 376
285 [53] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-6 21.85 42.42 101
286 [30] Jackson County 8 – AAA 4-4 21.76 24.87 292
287 [20] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 4-3 21.71 15.74 353
288 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-7 21.62 39.52 132
289 [31] Redan 5 – AAA 2-5 21.58 38.00 148
290 [52] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-6 21.54 38.60 140
291 [40] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 3-4 21.33 25.38 288
292 [19] Pelham 1 – A 6-1 21.14 -1.39 410
293 [41] Columbus 1 – AAAA 2-5 21.02 33.46 193
294 [45] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-5 20.82 38.36 146
295 [32] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 2-4 20.78 28.39 255
296 [54] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-7 20.57 47.49 63
297 [34] Therrell 6 – AA 3-5 20.40 27.20 268
298 [20] Jenkins County 3 – A 6-1 20.07 7.19 400
299 [21] Brookstone 4 – A 5-3 19.91 7.96 397
300 [22] Walker 6 – A 3-4 19.60 26.02 279
301 [33] Towers 5 – AAA 3-4 19.57 27.22 266
302 [53] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 2-5 19.41 31.15 221
303 [54] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-6 19.11 31.42 219
304 [23] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 4-3 19.06 23.13 307
305 [42] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-2 19.05 2.27 407
306 [21] Montgomery County 3 – A 5-2 18.92 11.43 377
307 [35] Lamar County 5 – AA 1-6 18.17 35.26 177
308 [34] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 6-1 18.03 5.55 403
309 [35] Dougherty 1 – AAA 1-7 17.90 29.80 234
310 [55] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-5 17.70 25.91 280
311 [36] Jordan 5 – AA 1-6 17.63 31.69 215
312 [36] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-6 17.62 33.25 196
313 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-7 17.14 45.26 84
314 [37] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-5 16.98 25.42 287
315 [37] Beach 3 – AAA 4-2 16.96 11.16 381
316 [38] Early County 1 – AA 2-6 16.75 37.76 150
317 [38] Savannah 3 – AAA 3-3 16.52 14.55 362
318 [39] Metter 2 – AA 3-4 16.22 22.58 310
319 [43] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-4 15.92 26.19 276
320 [39] Union County 7 – AAA 4-4 15.89 25.57 284
321 [40] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-3 15.23 15.80 352
322 [41] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-4 14.81 20.40 324
323 [44] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-8 14.66 52.65 32
324 [45] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-6 14.43 33.82 188
325 [24] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-6 14.14 32.08 210
326 [47] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-6 13.95 42.16 107
327 [25] Athens Christian 8 – A 2-5 13.93 24.39 295
328 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-6 13.93 36.88 157
329 [40] Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-6 13.88 26.24 275
330 [26] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 4-3 13.67 9.09 393
331 [22] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 4-3 13.61 9.87 387
332 [41] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 4-3 13.23 11.41 378
333 [46] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 4-3 12.88 9.61 390
334 [23] Greene County 7 – A 3-4 12.62 15.58 354
335 [42] Putnam County 8 – AA 5-3 12.45 11.38 379
336 [24] Towns County 8 – A 3-4 12.35 25.60 283
337 [25] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 2-4 11.85 16.38 349
338 [26] Wilcox County 2 – A 2-5 11.70 28.66 251
339 [47] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-7 11.46 33.53 191
340 [43] Dade County 7 – AA 3-4 10.30 17.11 344
341 [44] Banks County 8 – AA 3-4 10.02 13.44 367
342 [27] Miller County 1 – A 4-3 9.76 3.99 405
343 [42] Islands 3 – AAA 2-5 9.36 23.83 304
344 [28] Johnson County 3 – A 4-3 9.09 7.50 399
345 [43] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-7 8.95 33.09 200
346 [44] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-5 8.49 17.48 342
347 [45] Kendrick 4 – AAA 1-6 8.47 29.50 238
348 [46] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-6 8.34 27.22 267
349 [27] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 2-5 8.26 21.95 314
350 [28] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-5 8.01 22.69 308
351 [47] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-5 7.76 29.58 237
352 [29] St. Francis 6 – A 2-5 7.69 16.73 347
353 [29] Bowdon 6 – A 2-6 7.14 26.99 272
354 [30] Claxton 3 – A 1-6 6.81 22.07 312
355 [48] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-7 6.81 39.30 134
356 [48] McNair 5 – AAA 3-4 6.66 8.52 396
357 [31] Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-6 6.05 25.89 281
358 [32] Seminole County 1 – A 4-3 6.05 -3.17 413
359 [49] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-7 5.76 33.38 194
360 [33] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-5 5.66 13.57 366
361 [50] Long County 2 – AAA 0-7 5.60 26.11 277
362 [45] Butler 4 – AA 2-5 5.53 21.17 318
363 [46] Model 7 – AA 1-6 5.50 25.21 290
364 [47] Laney 4 – AA 1-6 5.12 37.99 149
365 [48] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-6 5.12 32.74 204
366 [34] Atkinson County 2 – A 1-6 4.64 28.84 247
367 [57] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-8 2.69 32.12 209
368 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-6 2.58 27.40 263
369 [51] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-7 2.49 32.06 211
370 [49] Monticello 8 – AA 1-6 2.10 15.13 356
371 [50] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-7 2.09 30.90 225
372 [35] Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-6 1.96 20.88 320
373 [52] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-7 1.49 33.58 190
374 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-5 0.67 16.20 350
375 [36] Portal 3 – A 1-6 0.48 18.36 340
376 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-5 -0.26 18.84 336
377 [37] Treutlen 3 – A 1-6 -0.27 18.69 337
378 [51] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-6 -1.05 17.08 345
379 [38] Wheeler County 3 – A 3-5 -1.74 4.93 404
380 [30] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-7 -1.89 27.64 262
381 [39] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-7 -2.02 31.98 214
382 [51] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-6 -2.25 21.97 313
383 [58] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-7 -2.28 32.39 207
384 [31] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-5 -2.30 13.18 368
385 [40] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-7 -2.51 21.75 315
386 [32] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-6 -2.58 14.72 360
387 [33] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-7 -3.55 27.04 270
388 [52] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-6 -3.89 14.73 359
389 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-6 -4.36 15.87 351
390 [53] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-5 -4.36 19.42 329
391 [34] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-6 -4.48 21.41 316
392 [41] Terrell County 1 – A 2-5 -4.51 9.47 391
393 [42] Lanier County 2 – A 1-6 -6.23 19.98 327
394 [43] Warren County 7 – A 0-7 -6.32 23.82 305
395 [44] Greenville 4 – A 2-5 -6.56 16.94 346
396 [54] Gordon Central 7 – AA 1-6 -6.64 12.97 369
397 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-4 -6.71 -1.87 411
398 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-7 -7.12 26.04 278
399 [54] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-6 -8.26 25.56 285
400 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-7 -8.27 25.49 286
401 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-7 -11.15 29.45 240
402 [45] Baconton Charter 1 – A 3-4 -11.52 -6.31 414
403 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-8 -11.63 48.11 57
404 [55] Josey 4 – AA 1-6 -12.06 10.09 385
405 [46] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 2-6 -13.22 9.81 389
406 [47] Crawford County 4 – A 2-5 -16.41 2.84 406
407 [48] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-5 -19.05 -2.03 412
408 [49] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-6 -19.24 6.63 402
409 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-7 -19.37 32.02 213
410 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-8 -20.22 35.57 169
411 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-7 -22.97 9.41 392
412 [57] Groves 3 – AAA 0-7 -23.63 11.76 374
413 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-7 -24.77 11.96 373
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-6 -30.36 -9.14 416
415 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-8 -35.09 18.97 335
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 1-7 -38.28 -11.04 417
417 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-5 -45.49 -34.83 418
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-4 -52.20 -8.71 415

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 89.40 77.20
2 8 – AAAAAAA 84.45 61.01
3 4 – AAAAAAA 77.71 59.96
4 6 – AAAAAAA 76.42 51.46
5 7 – AAAAAAA 74.90 51.98
6 5 – AAAA 73.90 49.31
7 3 – AAAAAAA 73.20 61.19
8 1 – AAAAAA 72.90 61.43
9 5 – AAAAAAA 72.83 54.23
10 8 – AAAAA 68.67 39.27
11 4 – AAAAA 67.12 46.96
12 7 – AAAAA 65.45 44.43
13 5 – AAAAAA 64.81 44.73
14 2 – AAAAAA 64.30 52.70
15 1 – AAAAA 63.12 43.98
16 7 – AAAA 61.58 45.82
17 6 – AAAAAA 60.95 45.42
18 2 – AA 60.91 35.16
19 4 – AAAAAA 59.64 39.32
20 5 – AAA 59.19 31.56
21 3 – AAAA 57.70 28.25
22 1 – AA 57.68 43.76
23 7 – AAA 57.65 23.68
24 2 – AAAAAAA 57.51 45.06
25 6 – AAAA 56.20 30.56
26 8 – AAAAAA 54.78 40.05
27 8 – AAAA 54.55 39.42
28 2 – AAAAA 54.34 41.11
29 3 – AAAAA 54.16 39.15
30 4 – AAA 53.20 27.74
31 5 – A 53.01 24.64
32 2 – AAAA 52.85 41.36
33 7 – AAAAAA 50.77 33.77
34 1 – AAAA 50.06 34.62
35 5 – AA 49.67 31.83
36 6 – AA 48.97 25.55
37 6 – AAA 48.92 22.58
6-South – AAA 51.53 32.84
6-North – AAA 27.41 13.74
38 3 – AA 48.42 31.99
39 6 – AAAAA 47.98 32.94
40 4 – AAAA 46.66 23.52
41 2 – A 46.51 25.62
42 3 – AAAAAA 45.41 34.03
43 8 – AA 45.12 10.52
44 1 – AAA 44.36 28.45
45 4 – A 44.22 15.59
4-Div B – A 39.46 20.55
4-Div A – A 37.34 7.74
46 4 – AA 43.60 13.69
47 7 – A 42.59 20.16
7-Div A – A 41.95 24.12
7-Div B – A 31.03 16.43
48 6 – A 42.30 16.77
6-Div A – A 37.18 16.57
6-Div B – A 36.26 16.94
49 5 – AAAAA 42.07 28.55
50 8 – A 42.04 19.52
51 8 – AAA 40.69 24.77
52 7 – AA 40.52 17.96
53 3 – AAA 35.97 14.13
54 2 – AAA 35.60 21.81
55 3 – A 35.01 14.90
3-Div A – A 30.48 16.58
3-Div B – A 28.86 13.13
56 1 – A 21.00 -0.72

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/13 Carrollton Hiram 14 – 41 12.88 78.4% 0.235
08/25 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe Armuchee 23 – 27 16.38 83.7% 0.244
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 14 – 17 14.06 80.3% 0.283
09/29 Ringgold Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 23 – 28 13.02 78.6% 0.290
09/08 Lovejoy Spalding 41 – 42 13.59 79.6% 0.301
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 9.67 72.5% 0.325
09/29 Central Gwinnett Lakeside (Atlanta) 38 – 36 39.59 98.1% 0.335
09/15 Evans Washington County 48 – 49 10.51 74.1% 0.349
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 – 31 10.49 74.1% 0.350
08/18 East Hall Habersham Central 55 – 72 7.58 68.1% 0.350
08/19 Toombs County East Laurens 10 – 8 37.66 97.7% 0.351
08/18 East Coweta Lovejoy 21 – 41 7.00 66.8% 0.356
08/25 Centennial Wheeler 38 – 42 9.21 71.5% 0.357
09/22 Griffin Whitewater 16 – 40 6.59 65.9% 0.359
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 – 46 9.87 72.8% 0.360

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.14 10/13 Archer Grayson 6 – 3 0.86 52.1%
84.24 08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 – 28 3.17 57.9%
82.08 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 51 – 38 14.69 81.3%
81.93 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 7.42 67.7%
81.37 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 7.72 68.4%
79.83 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 – 13 9.11 71.3%
79.65 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 18.00 85.8%
78.64 09/15 Brookwood Colquitt County 42 – 25 2.70 56.7%
78.51 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 0.32 50.8%
78.43 09/29 North Gwinnett Mill Creek 35 – 21 7.46 67.8%
75.76 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 14.69 81.3%
75.06 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 – 19 2.81 57.0%
74.26 08/25 North Gwinnett Milton 31 – 28 10.68 74.4%
73.61 10/13 South Forsyth Milton 21 – 13 5.44 63.3%
73.50 10/20 Brookwood Parkview 7.89 68.8%

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