Maxwell Week 6 Summary: Lee County on top in AAAAAA; Odds for AAAAAAA At-Large bid

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Lee County and Tucker have been close in the ratings for a couple of weeks, but the Trojans received just enough of a boost from their 49-0 victory over Thomas County Central to take the top spot in AAAAAA.  If both teams continue, they may very well settle the issue on the field since the top region seeds from 1-AAAAAA and 4-AAAAAA start on opposite sides of the bracket this season.
– Although region play hasn’t quite kicked in fully for most parts of the state, competition for the At-Large bid in Class AAAAAAA is largely settled by out-of-region games. Here are the front-runners so far:

By region:

Region Pct
3 – AAAAAAA 64.7%
1 – AAAAAAA 14.9%
4 – AAAAAAA 10.8%
7 – AAAAAAA 4.4%
8 – AAAAAAA 1.1%
5 – AAAAAAA 2.3%
2 – AAAAAAA 1.0%
6 – AAAAAAA 0.7%



By team:

Team Region Pct
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 32.7%
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 13.4%
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 9.7%
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7.5%
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6.6%
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6.1%
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 3.9%
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 3.5%
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 3.1%
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 3.1%
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 2.1%
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 1.1%
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1.0%

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 20.80%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 901 of 954 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.32%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.19 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 0.61

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 4-0 98.30 1 Lee County 6-0 75.67
2 Archer 5-0 88.23 2 Tucker 4-1 73.81
3 Lowndes 5-0 86.22 3 Mays 3-1 72.15
4 Mill Creek 4-1 85.93 4 Coffee 3-1 70.65
5 Colquitt County 5-1 83.87 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 4-1 69.35
6 McEachern 3-2 82.68 6 Harrison 3-2 68.32
7 Walton 5-0 80.70 7 Glynn Academy 1-2 67.37
8 North Gwinnett 4-1 79.49 8 Douglas County 5-0 63.86
9 Tift County 6-0 79.02 9 Valdosta 1-4 62.43
10 Brookwood 3-2 78.55 10 Allatoona 2-3 61.67
11 South Forsyth 5-0 76.26 11 Stephenson 3-2 61.54
12 Norcross 2-3 74.49 12 Hughes 3-2 60.09
13 Roswell 1-3 73.91 13 Alexander 3-1 59.32
14 North Paulding 5-0 70.62 14 Dalton 3-1 59.32
15 Hillgrove 3-2 68.39 15 Dacula 1-4 58.49
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-1 84.85 1 Cartersville 5-0 87.75
2 Rome 4-0 77.63 2 Thomson 3-0 67.67
3 Stockbridge 4-0 74.91 3 Marist 5-0 67.06
4 Warner Robins 5-0 70.68 4 Sandy Creek 3-1 63.29
5 Starr’s Mill 5-0 67.84 5 Jefferson 4-1 62.82
6 Jones County 5-0 67.40 6 Blessed Trinity 5-1 62.12
7 Carrollton 4-0 67.30 7 Woodward Academy 4-1 59.83
8 Bainbridge 4-1 63.69 8 Burke County 5-0 59.48
9 Kell 2-3 61.77 9 Ridgeland 5-0 59.38
10 Wayne County 4-0 59.92 10 Mary Persons 3-2 57.19
11 Ware County 0-3 59.67 11 Troup 5-0 54.40
12 Dutchtown 3-1 57.61 12 Cedartown 4-1 51.02
13 East Paulding 1-3 55.61 13 Cairo 3-2 50.54
14 Eagle’s Landing 3-2 55.59 14 West Laurens 2-3 48.69
15 Clarke Central 4-1 52.94 15 St. Pius X 0-5 48.50
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Cedar Grove 5-0 72.38 1 Benedictine 5-0 76.99
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 4-1 71.93 2 Hapeville Charter 4-1 61.81
3 Peach County 4-1 66.84 3 Rabun County 4-0 59.95
4 Calhoun 4-1 64.55 4 Thomasville 5-0 57.29
5 Crisp County 4-0 54.60 5 Callaway 5-0 56.60
6 Lovett 2-3 53.15 6 Brooks County 4-0 56.41
7 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-4 50.74 7 Fitzgerald 1-3 54.84
8 Pace Academy 2-2 48.24 8 Dodge County 4-0 52.22
9 Bremen 5-0 44.50 9 Heard County 5-1 51.53
10 Westside (Macon) 2-3 44.00 10 Jefferson County 5-0 48.77
11 Jenkins 4-0 43.78 11 Screven County 4-0 47.93
12 Monroe Area 5-0 42.67 12 Swainsboro 4-1 44.46
13 Liberty County 2-2 38.96 13 Pepperell 3-2 41.10
14 Morgan County 4-1 38.62 14 Vidalia 1-3 41.01
15 Jackson 3-2 37.47 15 Southwest 2-2 40.06
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 3-1 53.09 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-0 68.12
2 Irwin County 4-1 51.61 2 Prince Avenue Christian 5-0 48.20
3 Manchester 5-0 48.64 3 Wesleyan 5-1 48.09
4 Clinch County 3-2 46.46 4 Tattnall Square 4-0 43.86
5 Commerce 4-0 41.65 5 Mount Paran Christian 3-1 43.59
6 Charlton County 4-0 41.49 6 Stratford Academy 4-0 42.96
7 Mount Zion (Carroll) 4-0 40.49 7 Athens Academy 4-0 40.97
8 Emanuel County Institute 4-1 35.82 8 Darlington 3-2 39.26
9 Turner County 3-2 34.09 9 Mount Pisgah Christian 4-1 37.29
10 Washington-Wilkes 1-3 33.72 10 Calvary Day 3-1 35.61
11 Taylor County 3-1 33.34 11 Aquinas 2-2 34.27
12 Trion 4-1 32.30 12 Fellowship Christian 3-1 31.48
13 Marion County 4-1 31.97 13 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-0 28.62
14 Lincoln County 1-3 28.24 14 First Presbyterian 3-1 28.14
15 Telfair County 1-4 26.93 15 Mount de Sales 3-1 26.87

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 4-0 98.30 82.08 1
2 [2] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 5-0 88.23 74.06 4
3 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 5-0 87.75 60.20 33
4 [3] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 5-0 86.22 60.17 34
5 [4] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 4-1 85.93 69.37 10
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 2-1 84.85 68.39 16
7 [5] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-1 83.87 72.53 6
8 [6] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 3-2 82.68 68.82 13
9 [7] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 5-0 80.70 62.03 27
10 [8] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 4-1 79.49 70.78 9
11 [9] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-0 79.02 57.71 39
12 [10] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 3-2 78.55 72.59 5
13 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 4-0 77.63 51.69 69
14 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 5-0 76.99 45.65 119
15 [11] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-0 76.26 56.78 45
16 [1] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-0 75.67 46.01 117
17 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 4-0 74.91 55.84 51
18 [12] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 2-3 74.49 75.28 3
19 [13] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1-3 73.91 78.50 2
20 [2] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 4-1 73.81 48.53 89
21 [1] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 5-0 72.38 47.68 96
22 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 3-1 72.15 57.31 40
23 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 4-1 71.93 47.41 102
24 [4] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 5-0 70.68 55.27 52
25 [4] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 3-1 70.65 60.89 30
26 [14] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-0 70.62 45.09 122
27 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 4-1 69.35 51.48 71
28 [15] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 3-2 68.39 66.80 19
29 [16] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-2 68.35 65.34 21
30 [6] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 3-2 68.32 60.59 31
31 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 5-0 68.12 38.47 168
32 [5] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 5-0 67.84 48.53 90
33 [17] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 4-1 67.77 56.14 49
34 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 3-0 67.67 46.74 112
35 [6] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 5-0 67.40 45.68 118
36 [7] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.37 72.31 7
37 [7] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 4-0 67.30 39.41 161
38 [18] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 4-1 67.28 52.41 65
39 [3] Marist 7 – AAAA 5-0 67.06 47.23 105
40 [19] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 3-1 66.99 57.03 42
41 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 4-1 66.84 52.94 63
42 [20] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 4-1 66.42 53.71 58
43 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 4-1 64.55 35.37 212
44 [8] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 5-0 63.86 40.91 152
45 [21] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-1 63.86 56.76 47
46 [22] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 3-2 63.84 65.19 22
47 [8] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 4-1 63.69 51.01 74
48 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 3-1 63.29 46.76 111
49 [23] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1-3 62.91 69.10 12
50 [5] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 4-1 62.82 45.42 120
51 [24] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 4-1 62.54 34.22 224
52 [9] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1-4 62.43 72.30 8
53 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 5-1 62.12 47.76 95
54 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 4-1 61.81 44.43 124
55 [9] Kell 7 – AAAAA 2-3 61.77 60.41 32
56 [10] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 2-3 61.67 63.64 25
57 [11] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 3-2 61.54 54.32 54
58 [25] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 4-1 61.30 47.43 99
59 [26] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 3-2 61.12 56.87 43
60 [27] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 1-4 60.74 68.53 14
61 [28] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 4-1 60.21 53.89 56
62 [12] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 3-2 60.09 53.59 60
63 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 4-0 59.95 39.30 164
64 [10] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 4-0 59.92 43.54 129
65 [7] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 4-1 59.83 43.13 134
66 [11] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-3 59.67 69.32 11
67 [8] Burke County 3 – AAAA 5-0 59.48 36.04 201
68 [9] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 5-0 59.38 37.18 187
69 [29] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-3 59.37 62.47 26
70 [13] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 3-1 59.32 47.64 97
71 [14] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 3-1 59.32 41.67 145
72 [30] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 2-3 59.12 55.95 50
73 [15] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1-4 58.49 68.48 15
74 [16] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-1 58.39 46.95 108
75 [12] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 3-1 57.61 48.60 87
76 [31] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-3 57.47 63.93 24
77 [4] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-0 57.29 37.07 189
78 [10] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 3-2 57.19 41.27 149
79 [5] Callaway 5 – AA 5-0 56.60 33.87 227
80 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-1 56.47 49.34 84
81 [18] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 3-1 56.42 47.77 94
82 [6] Brooks County 1 – AA 4-0 56.41 37.49 182
83 [13] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 1-3 55.61 64.11 23
84 [14] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 3-2 55.59 49.97 81
85 [7] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-3 54.84 56.27 48
86 [19] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 3-2 54.62 43.40 130
87 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 4-0 54.60 35.45 211
88 [11] Troup 5 – AAAA 5-0 54.40 28.05 272
89 [20] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 3-2 54.27 51.63 70
90 [21] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 3-3 53.46 50.20 79
91 [32] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 3-2 53.33 53.90 55
92 [33] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-4 53.32 67.72 17
93 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 2-3 53.15 56.76 46
94 [1] Macon County 4 – A 3-1 53.09 41.27 148
95 [15] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 4-1 52.94 40.80 154
96 [16] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 4-1 52.75 38.62 167
97 [8] Dodge County 3 – AA 4-0 52.22 38.80 166
98 [2] Irwin County 2 – A 4-1 51.61 43.18 133
99 [9] Heard County 5 – AA 5-1 51.53 30.93 252
100 [12] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 4-1 51.02 39.40 162
101 [7] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 1-4 50.74 61.61 29
102 [13] Cairo 1 – AAAA 3-2 50.54 46.42 115
103 [17] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 4-1 50.49 31.28 250
104 [22] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 2-3 50.19 53.22 62
105 [23] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-4 50.11 56.84 44
106 [24] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-3 50.00 61.77 28
107 [25] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-2 49.82 47.05 107
108 [26] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-0 49.73 35.46 210
109 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 3-2 49.71 47.23 106
110 [27] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 3-2 49.69 47.42 101
111 [18] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 4-1 49.21 38.25 175
112 [10] Jefferson County 4 – AA 5-0 48.77 22.64 315
113 [14] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 2-3 48.69 50.85 75
114 [3] Manchester 4 – A 5-0 48.64 24.72 299
115 [15] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-5 48.50 66.63 20
116 [16] Eastside 4 – AAAA 4-1 48.46 37.91 177
117 [28] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 2-3 48.41 52.08 67
118 [8] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 2-2 48.24 40.69 155
119 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 5-0 48.20 17.93 348
120 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 5-1 48.09 27.59 276
121 [19] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-1 47.97 37.25 185
122 [11] Screven County 4 – AA 4-0 47.93 12.67 374
123 [29] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 4-0 47.69 26.55 283
124 [35] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 1-4 47.53 53.78 57
125 [36] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 1-4 47.44 59.83 35
126 [4] Clinch County 2 – A 3-2 46.46 35.32 213
127 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 3-2 46.38 36.22 199
128 [17] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 3-2 45.67 43.93 128
129 [30] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-3 45.35 53.49 61
130 [21] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 2-3 44.50 44.06 126
131 [9] Bremen 6 – AAA 5-0 44.50 21.30 323
132 [12] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-1 44.46 35.99 202
133 [18] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-1 44.38 37.19 186
134 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 3-2 44.24 36.79 192
135 [31] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 2-3 44.08 47.31 103
136 [37] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 2-3 44.07 52.85 64
137 [10] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-3 44.00 48.21 92
138 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 3-2 43.95 42.69 136
139 [4] Tattnall Square 7 – A 4-0 43.86 11.01 381
140 [11] Jenkins 3 – AAA 4-0 43.78 31.44 247
141 [21] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 2-2 43.74 42.25 138
142 [5] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 3-1 43.59 21.29 324
143 [22] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 3-2 43.55 40.07 159
144 [22] Spalding 2 – AAAA 1-3 43.28 50.84 76
145 [38] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 4-1 43.27 31.32 249
146 [32] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 2-3 43.02 50.52 78
147 [6] Stratford Academy 7 – A 4-0 42.96 19.40 337
148 [23] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 4-1 42.76 35.92 204
149 [23] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 4-1 42.70 32.63 235
150 [12] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 5-0 42.67 22.04 319
151 [24] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 2-3 42.57 49.01 86
152 [24] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 2-3 42.54 48.08 93
153 [25] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-2 42.37 41.03 151
154 [26] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 1-4 42.36 58.50 36
155 [39] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 2-3 42.10 37.67 179
156 [5] Commerce 8 – A 4-0 41.65 19.41 336
157 [33] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 3-2 41.57 26.69 282
158 [27] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 5-0 41.57 22.99 313
159 [25] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 3-2 41.56 35.52 207
160 [6] Charlton County 2 – A 4-0 41.49 23.89 305
161 [34] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 2-3 41.19 46.48 114
162 [13] Pepperell 7 – AA 3-2 41.10 37.66 180
163 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 1-3 41.01 49.82 82
164 [7] Athens Academy 8 – A 4-0 40.97 16.08 359
165 [40] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-5 40.90 67.21 18
166 [28] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-3 40.80 40.21 157
167 [26] West Hall 7 – AAAA 4-2 40.59 34.59 221
168 [7] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 4-0 40.49 8.68 394
169 [29] Ola 4 – AAAAA 1-3 40.45 53.68 59
170 [30] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-3 40.37 41.88 141
171 [35] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-3 40.27 49.38 83
172 [15] Southwest 3 – AA 2-2 40.06 43.19 132
173 [36] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 4-1 39.97 32.73 234
174 [27] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 5-0 39.77 8.68 395
175 [28] White County 7 – AAAA 5-1 39.67 27.79 274
176 [29] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 3-2 39.64 34.53 222
177 [8] Darlington 6 – A 3-2 39.26 36.21 200
178 [30] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-4 39.18 41.94 140
179 [13] Liberty County 2 – AAA 2-2 38.96 36.24 198
180 [14] Morgan County 8 – AAA 4-1 38.62 26.10 289
181 [31] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-3 38.56 42.71 135
182 [32] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 2-3 38.51 38.24 176
183 [31] Pickens 6 – AAAA 2-2 38.47 39.38 163
184 [32] Salem 4 – AAAA 3-2 38.38 31.70 244
185 [41] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 5-0 38.32 24.44 301
186 [33] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 2-3 38.28 41.73 143
187 [16] Spencer 5 – AA 3-2 37.94 35.07 217
188 [33] Howard 2 – AAAA 4-1 37.90 29.24 267
189 [34] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-4 37.75 44.02 127
190 [37] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 5-0 37.57 20.77 327
191 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-2 37.48 35.47 209
192 [17] Washington County 3 – AA 1-3 37.48 50.76 77
193 [15] Jackson 4 – AAA 3-2 37.47 26.50 285
194 [38] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-1 37.43 31.40 248
195 [18] Rockmart 7 – AA 3-2 37.30 23.80 306
196 [9] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 4-1 37.29 21.53 321
197 [19] Bacon County 2 – AA 4-1 37.28 30.76 255
198 [16] Monroe 1 – AAA 1-3 36.34 47.42 100
199 [34] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 3-2 36.32 33.19 231
200 [43] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-5 36.27 57.95 38
201 [17] Ringgold 6 – AAA 3-2 35.92 33.72 228
202 [18] Dawson County 7 – AAA 2-2 35.90 32.84 233
203 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 4-1 35.82 12.33 376
204 [35] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 3-2 35.74 31.56 245
205 [10] Calvary Day 3 – A 3-1 35.61 13.91 371
206 [36] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-4 35.53 40.48 156
207 [37] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 3-1 35.49 26.52 284
208 [20] Elbert County 8 – AA 4-1 35.38 23.49 310
209 [38] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-1 35.18 30.82 254
210 [39] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 1-4 35.14 51.70 68
211 [19] Union County 7 – AAA 4-1 35.10 22.15 318
212 [35] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-2 34.85 30.41 257
213 [39] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 1-3 34.61 44.82 123
214 [21] Berrien 1 – AA 4-2 34.56 29.55 265
215 [40] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 1-3 34.46 46.40 116
216 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 3-3 34.38 37.29 184
217 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 2-2 34.27 32.39 239
218 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 1-3 34.10 44.18 125
219 [9] Turner County 2 – A 3-2 34.09 32.42 237
220 [21] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-2 33.86 27.89 273
221 [41] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-5 33.78 48.42 91
222 [40] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-3 33.75 41.45 146
223 [10] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 1-3 33.72 42.15 139
224 [41] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 3-2 33.69 38.41 171
225 [23] Toombs County 2 – AA 4-0 33.60 19.17 339
226 [24] Dublin 3 – AA 3-2 33.46 24.46 300
227 [22] Cook 1 – AAA 0-5 33.46 57.21 41
228 [11] Taylor County 4 – A 3-1 33.34 4.82 406
229 [23] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 3-2 32.82 26.77 280
230 [24] Pike County 4 – AAA 3-1 32.62 21.00 326
231 [25] Douglass 6 – AA 2-2 32.46 26.91 279
232 [12] Trion 6 – A 4-1 32.30 15.42 364
233 [42] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-4 32.16 51.17 73
234 [25] East Hall 7 – AAA 4-1 32.09 18.76 340
235 [13] Marion County 4 – A 4-1 31.97 17.88 349
236 [43] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-0 31.78 9.49 390
237 [44] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-3 31.69 38.43 170
238 [26] Bleckley County 3 – AA 4-1 31.63 18.13 346
239 [36] Westover 1 – AAAA 2-3 31.60 34.15 225
240 [45] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-5 31.58 58.13 37
241 [12] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 3-1 31.48 16.19 358
242 [42] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 2-3 30.59 41.72 144
243 [46] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-4 30.53 41.03 150
244 [37] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-4 30.45 40.85 153
245 [38] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-2 30.40 25.33 295
246 [43] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 1-3 30.38 36.63 193
247 [47] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-3 30.34 40.15 158
248 [26] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-3 30.31 45.14 121
249 [48] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-2 30.26 27.19 277
250 [49] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 2-3 29.92 35.70 206
251 [44] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-2 29.20 30.40 259
252 [50] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-4 29.16 52.12 66
253 [39] Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-3 28.99 41.28 147
254 [27] Coosa 7 – AA 3-2 28.81 26.09 290
255 [45] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-5 28.72 54.78 53
256 [13] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 5-0 28.62 12.58 375
257 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-4 28.52 49.04 85
258 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-4 28.49 43.37 131
259 [14] Lincoln County 7 – A 1-3 28.24 36.44 195
260 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 3-1 28.14 15.76 362
261 [28] Washington 6 – AA 2-3 27.57 36.81 191
262 [40] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-5 27.38 50.18 80
263 [51] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-4 27.16 32.21 240
264 [52] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 3-2 27.01 24.15 303
265 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 1-4 26.93 34.93 218
266 [15] Mount de Sales 7 – A 3-1 26.87 18.38 343
267 [47] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 1-3 26.70 35.14 215
268 [16] Savannah Christian 3 – A 1-2 26.27 28.46 270
269 [17] Brookstone 4 – A 4-1 26.23 11.42 378
270 [41] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 2-3 26.23 28.41 271
271 [16] Pelham 1 – A 4-1 26.18 5.45 405
272 [28] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-2 26.08 25.02 297
273 [29] Redan 5 – AAA 1-4 26.00 42.53 137
274 [29] Chattooga 7 – AA 1-4 26.00 31.45 246
275 [48] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 1-4 25.88 39.24 165
276 [53] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-5 25.84 46.49 113
277 [30] Early County 1 – AA 2-3 25.84 30.41 258
278 [49] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-5 25.55 38.28 174
279 [54] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-5 25.36 48.54 88
280 [31] Northeast 3 – AA 3-1 25.35 18.48 342
281 [50] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-4 25.26 35.17 214
282 [30] North Hall 7 – AAA 1-4 25.24 35.12 216
283 [18] Athens Christian 8 – A 1-3 25.23 37.15 188
284 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-5 25.12 35.99 203
285 [32] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 3-1 25.09 17.46 352
286 [17] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-2 24.86 27.77 275
287 [31] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-3 24.78 30.44 256
288 [51] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-2 24.75 15.97 361
289 [18] Mitchell County 1 – A 4-1 24.52 8.62 396
290 [42] Madison County 8 – AAAA 2-3 24.43 26.31 287
291 [19] Dooly County 4 – A 0-5 24.12 46.87 109
292 [52] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 2-3 24.07 28.74 269
293 [43] Luella 4 – AAAA 0-5 24.04 47.23 104
294 [19] George Walton Academy 8 – A 3-1 24.03 9.65 388
295 [44] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-3 23.95 37.50 181
296 [20] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-4 23.95 41.86 142
297 [55] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-2 23.86 25.43 294
298 [32] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-2 23.65 26.10 288
299 [33] Jordan 5 – AA 1-4 23.51 37.86 178
300 [33] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-5 23.40 51.25 72
301 [45] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-2 23.10 23.71 307
302 [21] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 3-1 23.03 11.16 380
303 [45] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-0 22.79 -4.52 414
304 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 1-4 22.41 32.59 236
305 [20] Bowdon 6 – A 1-4 22.07 36.63 194
306 [34] Therrell 6 – AA 2-3 21.76 31.79 243
307 [22] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 3-1 21.69 3.46 408
308 [35] Towers 5 – AAA 2-3 21.66 29.90 264
309 [46] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-4 21.45 35.74 205
310 [36] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-5 21.11 38.44 169
311 [35] Laney 4 – AA 0-5 21.10 47.59 98
312 [47] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-4 20.83 30.17 260
313 [23] Walker 6 – A 2-3 20.50 25.97 292
314 [21] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-1 20.49 11.92 377
315 [37] North Murray 6 – AAA 2-3 20.48 25.26 296
316 [22] Greene County 7 – A 2-2 20.34 17.39 353
317 [36] Harlem 4 – AA 4-1 19.91 6.19 401
318 [37] Lamar County 5 – AA 0-5 19.82 37.00 190
319 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-4 19.76 38.34 172
320 [23] Montgomery County 3 – A 3-1 19.26 15.60 363
321 [24] Schley County 4 – A 3-1 19.23 15.07 367
322 [38] Beach 3 – AAA 2-1 19.08 19.19 338
323 [38] Banks County 8 – AA 2-3 19.01 22.62 317
324 [39] Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-4 18.85 33.42 230
325 [40] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-4 18.10 32.95 232
326 [39] Putnam County 8 – AA 3-2 18.09 20.20 332
327 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-4 17.73 32.39 238
328 [54] Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-4 17.32 30.96 251
329 [40] Temple 5 – AA 3-2 17.23 9.10 392
330 [25] Johnson County 3 – A 3-1 17.08 8.26 398
331 [26] Miller County 1 – A 2-2 16.29 10.78 382
332 [41] Model 7 – AA 1-4 16.23 26.48 286
333 [42] South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-4 16.18 34.91 219
334 [41] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-1 16.07 9.57 389
335 [46] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-2 15.94 14.36 370
336 [43] Metter 2 – AA 2-3 15.68 20.10 334
337 [44] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 1-3 15.42 23.65 308
338 [42] Savannah 3 – AAA 2-1 15.42 2.63 410
339 [45] Dade County 7 – AA 2-3 15.18 23.45 311
340 [24] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-5 14.78 34.27 223
341 [27] Seminole County 1 – A 3-2 14.24 4.54 407
342 [43] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-4 14.10 36.26 197
343 [25] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-4 13.66 33.69 229
344 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-5 13.53 36.44 196
345 [28] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-2 13.41 16.60 355
346 [29] Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-3 12.94 23.24 312
347 [45] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-3 12.92 24.94 298
348 [46] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 3-2 12.56 13.82 372
349 [30] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-3 12.31 34.05 226
350 [31] Atkinson County 2 – A 1-4 11.71 30.15 261
351 [46] Murray County 6 – AAA 2-3 11.65 18.66 341
352 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-2 11.36 19.97 335
353 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-4 10.90 29.32 266
354 [47] Islands 3 – AAA 2-2 10.55 17.49 351
355 [47] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-4 10.51 38.33 173
356 [27] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-4 10.36 34.62 220
357 [48] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-5 9.67 30.83 253
358 [32] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-3 9.03 9.76 386
359 [47] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-3 8.92 25.88 293
360 [49] Long County 2 – AAA 0-4 8.88 21.96 320
361 [28] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-2 8.86 5.57 404
362 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-2 8.80 -3.11 413
363 [33] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-4 8.67 27.00 278
364 [48] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 3-2 8.51 6.00 403
365 [48] Monticello 8 – AA 0-5 8.21 26.69 281
366 [34] Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-4 8.15 18.25 345
367 [29] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-2 7.59 23.93 304
368 [35] Treutlen 3 – A 1-4 7.51 20.75 328
369 [36] Towns County 8 – A 2-3 7.47 30.09 262
370 [49] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-4 7.29 17.78 350
371 [37] Portal 3 – A 1-3 7.21 16.57 356
372 [49] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-5 6.99 29.17 268
373 [30] St. Francis 6 – A 1-3 6.50 20.44 330
374 [51] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 2-3 5.14 15.34 365
375 [50] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-3 4.96 9.10 391
376 [50] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-3 4.84 16.03 360
377 [51] Butler 4 – AA 1-4 4.23 21.25 325
378 [38] Warren County 7 – A 0-4 4.22 26.06 291
379 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-6 4.15 37.46 183
380 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-6 4.14 32.18 241
381 [39] Wheeler County 3 – A 3-3 3.89 3.31 409
382 [40] Terrell County 1 – A 0-5 3.20 22.79 314
383 [52] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-2 2.40 7.06 400
384 [51] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-3 2.36 10.32 383
385 [52] Josey 4 – AA 1-3 2.33 12.92 373
386 [41] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-4 2.31 18.08 347
387 [31] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 1-4 1.91 23.63 309
388 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-4 0.85 15.05 368
389 [42] Lanier County 2 – A 1-3 0.69 15.29 366
390 [43] Claxton 3 – A 0-4 -0.24 22.63 316
391 [52] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-5 -0.46 35.49 208
392 [53] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-4 -0.47 20.15 333
393 [44] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-2 -0.54 -4.54 415
394 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 3-1 -0.75 -1.54 412
395 [45] Crawford County 4 – A 2-2 -1.38 -7.48 417
396 [32] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-3 -1.49 8.61 397
397 [46] Greenville 4 – A 0-4 -3.02 32.02 242
398 [54] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-4 -3.93 24.36 302
399 [33] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-4 -4.02 16.30 357
400 [34] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-5 -5.31 18.31 344
401 [35] Pacelli 4 – A 1-4 -5.39 20.21 331
402 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-5 -6.03 46.85 110
403 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-3 -6.13 7.69 399
404 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-5 -6.50 30.03 263
405 [36] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-3 -6.76 9.73 387
406 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-4 -7.71 9.84 385
407 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-4 -8.82 21.38 322
408 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-4 -9.08 16.63 354
409 [56] Groves 3 – AAA 0-5 -13.12 10.32 384
410 [55] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-5 -13.72 20.47 329
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-3 -15.43 11.35 379
412 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-4 -17.13 6.01 402
413 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-5 -17.65 39.46 160
414 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-4 -20.28 1.59 411
415 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -21.21 14.60 369
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 1-5 -29.42 -4.89 416
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-1 -37.88 8.80 393
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-4 -46.10 -21.82 418

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 8 – AAAAAAA 90.13 64.60
2 1 – AAAAAAA 87.13 77.70
3 6 – AAAAAAA 79.83 57.17
4 3 – AAAAAAA 79.16 65.81
5 4 – AAAAAAA 78.22 64.28
6 1 – AAAAAA 76.43 66.03
7 7 – AAAAAAA 76.25 54.73
8 5 – AAAA 74.94 50.46
9 5 – AAAAAAA 72.12 56.12
10 7 – AAAAA 71.27 49.33
11 8 – AAAAA 69.92 40.44
12 4 – AAAAA 69.56 48.62
13 5 – AAAAAA 69.26 49.94
14 6 – AAAAAA 66.54 50.91
15 1 – AAAAA 65.57 49.19
16 4 – AAAAAA 65.44 44.20
17 2 – AAAAAA 64.05 52.17
18 2 – AAAAAAA 63.78 51.76
19 7 – AAAA 63.04 47.36
20 5 – AAA 62.31 35.45
21 2 – AA 61.65 33.78
22 3 – AAAA 59.76 28.79
23 1 – AA 59.12 46.70
24 3 – AAAAA 58.93 40.71
25 2 – AAAAA 57.85 41.52
26 8 – AAAAAA 57.80 43.44
27 7 – AAA 56.81 29.65
28 8 – AAAA 56.57 41.27
29 2 – AAAA 56.52 45.36
30 5 – A 55.23 25.73
31 4 – AAA 55.00 31.95
32 7 – AAAAAA 54.52 38.64
33 6 – AAA 52.25 23.52
  6-South – AAA 55.08 36.51
  6-North – AAA 28.36 11.89
34 1 – AAAA 52.19 38.29
35 5 – AA 52.13 33.65
36 4 – AAAA 52.00 29.94
37 6 – AAAA 51.87 31.21
38 6 – AAAAA 50.62 34.57
39 6 – AA 49.56 28.19
40 2 – A 48.76 28.76
41 3 – AA 48.14 33.12
42 1 – AAA 47.25 32.81
43 4 – A 47.03 18.56
  4-Div B – A 42.75 21.86
  4-Div A – A 39.19 13.73
44 3 – AAAAAA 46.97 34.51
45 8 – AA 45.99 16.81
46 6 – A 44.88 19.89
  6-Div B – A 39.41 19.35
  6-Div A – A 39.41 20.57
47 8 – A 44.60 21.07
48 7 – A 43.98 24.23
  7-Div A – A 42.65 27.34
  7-Div B – A 33.91 21.18
49 4 – AA 43.56 16.62
50 5 – AAAAA 42.64 30.84
51 8 – AAA 40.33 25.75
52 7 – AA 38.88 20.34
53 2 – AAA 38.56 25.92
54 3 – A 37.43 18.48
  3-Div A – A 33.57 20.07
  3-Div B – A 30.75 17.03
55 3 – AAA 35.07 14.32
56 1 – A 25.54 6.18

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 14 – 17 15.40 82.4% 0.263
09/08 Lovejoy Spalding 41 – 42 10.79 74.6% 0.345
08/18 East Coweta Lovejoy 21 – 41 7.23 67.3% 0.351
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 – 14 8.01 69.0% 0.355
09/22 Griffin Whitewater 16 – 40 6.27 65.2% 0.366
09/15 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 20 – 42 5.72 63.9% 0.380
08/25 Strong Rock Christian North Cobb Christian 17 – 20 7.55 68.0% 0.389
08/18 East Hall Habersham Central 55 – 72 5.54 63.5% 0.390
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 – 46 7.70 68.4% 0.394
08/18 Treutlen Georgia Military College 20 – 21 7.65 68.2% 0.395
09/15 Locust Grove Union Grove 34 – 38 6.45 65.6% 0.403
09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 – 42 4.71 61.6% 0.407
09/08 Gordon Lee Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 7 – 24 4.49 61.1% 0.411
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 – 14 32.70 96.3% 0.413
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 – 17 4.80 61.8% 0.415

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
91.12 10/13 Grayson Archer 9.46 72.0%
87.01 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 – 13 1.70 54.2%
84.83 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County 2.96 57.4%
84.76 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 16.22 83.5%
84.04 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 – 19 3.25 58.0%
81.87 09/29 Mill Creek North Gwinnett 5.83 64.2%
81.55 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 6.60 65.9%
81.15 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 – 17 9.68 72.5%
80.71 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 5.45 63.3%
80.66 09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 – 42 4.71 61.6%
80.06 08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 – 28 1.21 53.0%
79.44 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 – 35 2.75 56.8%
77.07 08/19 Colquitt County Norcross 20 – 17 9.37 71.9%
76.79 09/22 Archer Roswell 37 – 26 13.72 79.8%
76.73 09/15 Archer Norcross 16 – 13 14.34 80.8%

View Comments 0