Maxwell Week 4 Summary: Roswell braves hostilities, offense stays home

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Reversing direction twice on Friday, Roswell eventually opted to make the trek to Moultrie in spite of Hurricane Irma approaching. Colquitt County, perhaps hungry for revenge after last year’s 34-3 shellacking, covered travel expenses and arranged for a police escort for the Hornets. It was well worth it for the Packers, who not only won the game but snapped Roswell’s state record 221-game scoring streak that dates back to 1998.
– Cartersville continues to climb and is nearly three touchdowns better than their closest Class AAAA competitor, region rival Sandy Creek. This weekend the Purple Hurricanes dumped Westlake, one of last season’s Class AAAAAAA semifinalists, by the score of 38-5. Although the ratings don’t place them at the top, it gives them about an 11 percent chance to beat both Grayson and Colquitt County in back to back contests on a neutral field.
– Although not quite as impressive as Region 1-AAAAAA’s 29-0 record against outside opponents back in 2014, currently Region 1-AAAAAAA is 12-1, 10-0 against Georgia teams. The only game prior to region play that any are underdogs in is when Camden County travels to McEachern on Sep 22. If the Wildcats can pull off the upset, the region could post a 26-1 record, 22-0 in-state.


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 34.25%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 589 of 621 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.85%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.80 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 0.78

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 3-0 98.87 1 Tucker 2-1 77.67
2 Colquitt County 4-0 93.95 2 Lee County 4-0 75.73
3 Archer 3-0 86.45 3 Mays 2-1 74.32
4 Mill Creek 3-1 86.35 4 Coffee 3-0 71.33
5 Lowndes 3-0 84.35 5 Glynn Academy 1-2 67.92
6 McEachern 1-2 83.58 6 Allatoona 1-2 67.77
7 Roswell 1-2 77.53 7 Harrison 1-2 67.55
8 North Gwinnett 3-1 77.23 8 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-1 66.17
9 Walton 3-0 76.16 9 Hughes 2-1 66.01
10 Tift County 4-0 75.12 10 Valdosta 1-3 63.60
11 North Cobb 3-0 75.03 11 Stephenson 1-2 63.15
12 South Forsyth 4-0 74.05 12 Dacula 1-2 62.43
13 Norcross 1-2 72.72 13 Dalton 2-1 61.27
14 Parkview 2-1 71.04 14 Alexander 2-1 61.06
15 Brookwood 1-2 70.15 15 Douglas County 3-0 60.11
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-0 85.03 1 Cartersville 4-0 89.66
2 Rome 3-0 78.15 2 Sandy Creek 3-0 70.94
3 Stockbridge 3-0 76.25 3 Thomson 3-0 69.13
4 Carrollton 2-0 68.77 4 Woodward Academy 3-0 69.07
5 Warner Robins 3-0 66.40 5 Marist 3-0 64.46
6 Jones County 3-0 65.94 6 Blessed Trinity 3-1 64.26
7 Kell 0-3 64.63 7 Jefferson 2-1 63.08
8 Bainbridge 2-1 63.86 8 Mary Persons 3-1 62.15
9 Griffin 3-0 63.72 9 Ridgeland 4-0 57.19
10 Starr’s Mill 3-0 63.19 10 Burke County 4-0 55.10
11 Ware County 0-2 61.80 11 Cairo 1-2 52.49
12 Wayne County 2-0 59.20 12 St. Pius X 0-3 51.58
13 Dutchtown 2-1 56.42 13 Spalding 1-2 51.13
14 East Paulding 1-2 54.10 14 Cedartown 4-0 50.84
15 Eagle’s Landing 2-1 53.99 15 Troup 4-0 49.84
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-1 72.99 1 Benedictine 3-0 80.67
2 Cedar Grove 3-0 71.39 2 Hapeville Charter 3-1 61.51
3 Calhoun 2-1 66.31 3 Thomasville 3-0 59.87
4 Peach County 2-1 61.14 4 Callaway 3-0 58.95
5 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-3 54.94 5 Rabun County 3-0 58.26
6 Lovett 1-2 54.26 6 Fitzgerald 1-3 56.66
7 Crisp County 3-0 53.01 7 Brooks County 2-0 56.44
8 Pace Academy 0-2 48.03 8 Heard County 3-1 49.05
9 Bremen 3-0 44.88 9 Dodge County 2-0 48.90
10 Jenkins 3-0 44.06 10 Jefferson County 3-0 48.26
11 Dawson County 2-0 43.70 11 Screven County 2-0 47.26
12 Jackson 1-2 42.14 12 Swainsboro 3-0 44.20
13 Adairsville 2-1 41.15 13 Pepperell 1-2 41.84
14 Westside (Macon) 1-2 40.90 14 Southwest 2-1 40.23
15 Monroe 1-2 40.24 15 Vidalia 0-2 39.66
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 2-1 55.28 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 4-0 68.58
2 Clinch County 2-1 51.18 2 Prince Avenue Christian 4-0 52.25
3 Irwin County 2-1 50.55 3 Wesleyan 3-1 47.82
4 Manchester 3-0 47.42 4 Mount Paran Christian 2-1 45.55
5 Commerce 3-0 40.17 5 Calvary Day 2-0 43.82
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 3-0 39.85 6 Stratford Academy 3-0 42.62
7 Charlton County 2-0 39.00 7 Tattnall Square 2-0 41.96
8 Emanuel County Institute 2-1 38.23 8 Athens Academy 3-0 41.06
9 Turner County 2-1 36.61 9 Aquinas 1-1 40.11
10 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 36.43 10 Darlington 1-2 37.97
11 Washington-Wilkes 1-2 33.35 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 3-1 35.93
12 Dooly County 0-3 32.04 12 Fellowship Christian 2-1 35.52
13 Taylor County 3-0 31.58 13 Athens Christian 1-2 27.94
14 Lincoln County 1-2 29.17 14 First Presbyterian 2-1 27.71
15 Trion 2-1 29.17 15 Brookstone 3-1 26.27

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 3-0 98.87 82.80 1
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 4-0 93.95 75.46 5
3 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 4-0 89.66 67.00 21
4 [3] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 3-0 86.45 70.96 13
5 [4] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 3-1 86.35 74.09 10
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 2-0 85.03 66.71 22
7 [5] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 3-0 84.35 66.53 24
8 [6] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1-2 83.58 82.20 2
9 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 3-0 80.67 49.87 104
10 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 3-0 78.15 59.42 46
11 [1] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 77.67 63.79 32
12 [7] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1-2 77.53 78.50 3
13 [8] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 3-1 77.23 70.37 15
14 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 3-0 76.25 62.28 36
15 [9] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-0 76.16 63.24 34
16 [2] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 4-0 75.73 51.09 92
17 [10] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 4-0 75.12 50.01 102
18 [11] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 75.03 58.24 53
19 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 2-1 74.32 66.20 28
20 [12] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-0 74.05 53.19 79
21 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 2-1 72.99 54.60 71
22 [13] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 1-2 72.72 77.18 4
23 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 3-0 71.39 49.31 114
24 [4] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 71.33 55.95 62
25 [14] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-1 71.04 61.07 37
26 [2] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 3-0 70.94 42.67 152
27 [15] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 1-2 70.15 74.72 9
28 [3] Thomson 3 – AAAA 3-0 69.13 50.33 96
29 [4] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 3-0 69.07 46.57 125
30 [4] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 2-0 68.77 37.57 191
31 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 4-0 68.58 44.66 137
32 [16] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 3-0 68.57 50.18 99
33 [17] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 3-1 67.97 65.48 30
34 [5] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.92 72.79 12
35 [6] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.77 73.31 11
36 [7] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.55 70.17 16
37 [18] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 3-0 67.09 45.82 129
38 [19] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 1-2 66.71 75.13 6
39 [5] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-0 66.40 58.39 52
40 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 2-1 66.31 60.54 41
41 [8] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 3-1 66.17 44.90 135
42 [20] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1-2 66.13 66.28 25
43 [9] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 2-1 66.01 60.27 44
44 [6] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 3-0 65.94 43.53 150
45 [21] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 65.93 43.97 146
46 [22] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 65.16 57.16 55
47 [23] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-1 65.04 55.88 63
48 [7] Kell 7 – AAAAA 0-3 64.63 74.89 7
49 [5] Marist 7 – AAAA 3-0 64.46 53.70 78
50 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 3-1 64.26 56.69 58
51 [24] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 63.99 52.33 86
52 [8] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2-1 63.86 64.89 31
53 [9] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 3-0 63.72 45.62 130
54 [10] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1-3 63.60 66.68 23
55 [25] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 3-0 63.34 12.90 357
56 [10] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 3-0 63.19 48.86 115
57 [11] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 63.15 69.52 18
58 [7] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 2-1 63.08 46.02 127
59 [26] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 2-2 63.02 52.70 85
60 [27] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-2 62.51 60.27 43
61 [12] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 62.43 67.95 20
62 [8] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 3-1 62.15 35.92 206
63 [28] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 62.00 58.73 48
64 [11] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-2 61.80 70.41 14
65 [2] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 3-1 61.51 51.07 93
66 [13] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 2-1 61.27 50.13 101
67 [4] Peach County 4 – AAA 2-1 61.14 49.85 105
68 [14] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 2-1 61.06 51.10 91
69 [29] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 2-1 60.45 53.14 80
70 [30] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 1-3 60.40 66.23 27
71 [15] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 3-0 60.11 38.33 181
72 [3] Thomasville 1 – AA 3-0 59.87 45.92 128
73 [12] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-0 59.20 55.45 65
74 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 3-0 58.95 32.93 233
75 [5] Rabun County 8 – AA 3-0 58.26 38.05 188
76 [16] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 2-2 57.29 52.93 82
77 [9] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 4-0 57.19 38.72 176
78 [31] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 0-4 56.97 74.84 8
79 [6] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-3 56.66 58.48 51
80 [17] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-1 56.51 48.05 117
81 [7] Brooks County 1 – AA 2-0 56.44 44.26 141
82 [13] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 2-1 56.42 46.94 122
83 [18] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 2-1 56.23 52.84 84
84 [19] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 1-2 55.79 55.40 66
85 [32] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 2-1 55.64 41.09 160
86 [20] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 1-2 55.42 60.30 42
87 [1] Macon County 4 – A 2-1 55.28 46.66 123
88 [10] Burke County 3 – AAAA 4-0 55.10 30.50 259
89 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-3 54.94 69.05 19
90 [33] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 1-2 54.58 56.49 59
91 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 1-2 54.26 58.66 50
92 [14] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 1-2 54.10 60.61 40
93 [15] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-1 53.99 49.40 110
94 [21] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 2-1 53.13 49.53 108
95 [7] Crisp County 1 – AAA 3-0 53.01 36.99 195
96 [22] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-2 52.76 58.72 49
97 [11] Cairo 1 – AAAA 1-2 52.49 56.97 57
98 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 4-0 52.25 17.50 335
99 [23] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 1-1 52.24 54.34 74
100 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-1 52.19 49.37 111
101 [16] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 2-1 51.59 36.77 200
102 [17] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 2-1 51.59 47.04 121
103 [12] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-3 51.58 69.76 17
104 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 2-1 51.18 39.35 171
105 [13] Spalding 2 – AAAA 1-2 51.13 57.93 54
106 [24] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 51.07 54.63 70
107 [14] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 4-0 50.84 29.75 266
108 [25] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 3-0 50.73 35.97 205
109 [3] Irwin County 2 – A 2-1 50.55 47.59 118
110 [18] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 3-1 50.06 31.42 247
111 [15] Troup 5 – AAAA 4-0 49.84 27.81 279
112 [19] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-2 49.65 51.71 88
113 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 3-1 49.40 30.19 264
114 [26] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 1-3 49.30 55.59 64
115 [16] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 2-1 49.23 38.93 174
116 [8] Heard County 5 – AA 3-1 49.05 33.41 230
117 [9] Dodge County 3 – AA 2-0 48.90 43.48 151
118 [21] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-0 48.82 29.50 268
119 [27] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 3-0 48.68 35.20 216
120 [35] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 48.38 43.64 149
121 [10] Jefferson County 4 – AA 3-0 48.26 30.23 262
122 [8] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-2 48.03 60.97 38
123 [36] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-3 47.96 65.50 29
124 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 3-1 47.82 35.60 211
125 [4] Manchester 4 – A 3-0 47.42 22.32 309
126 [17] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 3-1 47.37 31.30 249
127 [18] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 1-2 47.30 49.53 109
128 [28] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 47.28 63.35 33
129 [11] Screven County 4 – AA 2-0 47.26 0.00 409
130 [29] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-3 47.22 60.01 45
131 [22] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-2 46.95 55.33 67
132 [30] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 46.60 49.89 103
133 [19] Eastside 4 – AAAA 3-1 46.56 34.79 219
134 [23] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 2-1 46.22 40.08 167
135 [31] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 2-1 45.87 44.10 145
136 [32] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 2-0 45.83 27.37 284
137 [24] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 2-2 45.76 45.20 132
138 [37] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-3 45.64 66.28 26
139 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 2-1 45.55 34.06 223
140 [38] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-1 45.26 44.96 133
141 [9] Bremen 6 – AAA 3-0 44.88 34.56 220
142 [20] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 2-1 44.62 37.65 189
143 [25] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 1-2 44.55 55.22 68
144 [12] Swainsboro 2 – AA 3-0 44.20 38.25 184
145 [10] Jenkins 3 – AAA 3-0 44.06 32.89 235
146 [26] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 3-0 44.01 30.99 253
147 [21] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 2-1 43.82 37.05 194
148 [5] Calvary Day 3 – A 2-0 43.82 1.08 408
149 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 2-0 43.70 31.63 246
150 [27] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 1-2 43.50 49.36 112
151 [22] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-0 42.85 24.76 298
152 [28] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-2 42.82 41.50 157
153 [6] Stratford Academy 7 – A 3-0 42.62 16.16 345
154 [33] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 1-2 42.57 49.61 107
155 [12] Jackson 4 – AAA 1-2 42.14 44.22 143
156 [34] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 2-1 42.11 19.20 329
157 [7] Tattnall Square 7 – A 2-0 41.96 9.44 376
158 [39] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 2-1 41.88 44.53 140
159 [13] Pepperell 7 – AA 1-2 41.84 49.33 113
160 [23] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 1-2 41.60 52.90 83
161 [13] Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-1 41.15 37.09 193
162 [29] Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-2 41.15 54.41 72
163 [40] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-4 41.13 58.87 47
164 [8] Athens Academy 8 – A 3-0 41.06 17.15 339
165 [24] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 1-2 41.05 44.90 134
166 [14] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-2 40.90 43.81 147
167 [25] West Hall 7 – AAAA 3-1 40.60 28.24 276
168 [26] Pickens 6 – AAAA 2-1 40.56 35.84 208
169 [35] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-3 40.52 54.93 69
170 [36] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-3 40.51 54.39 73
171 [30] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 1-2 40.50 41.06 161
172 [27] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-3 40.45 46.30 126
173 [15] Monroe 1 – AAA 1-2 40.24 47.39 120
174 [14] Southwest 3 – AA 2-1 40.23 37.32 192
175 [5] Commerce 8 – A 3-0 40.17 17.46 336
176 [9] Aquinas 7 – A 1-1 40.11 38.49 180
177 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 3-0 39.85 13.59 355
178 [37] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 3-0 39.75 30.36 261
179 [15] Vidalia 2 – AA 0-2 39.66 48.10 116
180 [38] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-0 39.64 27.41 282
181 [39] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 2-1 39.55 36.97 196
182 [16] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 2-1 39.54 38.09 187
183 [41] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 1-2 39.53 38.31 182
184 [31] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 2-1 39.47 35.00 217
185 [16] Spencer 5 – AA 2-1 39.45 33.91 227
186 [32] Ola 4 – AAAAA 1-2 39.33 45.28 131
187 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 1-2 39.04 53.98 76
188 [7] Charlton County 2 – A 2-0 39.00 29.54 267
189 [33] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-0 38.90 20.78 320
190 [29] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-0 38.74 19.60 328
191 [40] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-0 38.53 24.56 299
192 [41] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 38.32 44.71 136
193 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 2-1 38.23 20.80 319
194 [17] Liberty County 2 – AAA 1-2 38.17 36.77 201
195 [17] Bacon County 2 – AA 3-0 38.04 28.84 272
196 [10] Darlington 6 – A 1-2 37.97 53.12 81
197 [30] Westover 1 – AAAA 2-1 37.44 30.59 258
198 [18] Cook 1 – AAA 0-3 37.34 60.93 39
199 [19] Morgan County 8 – AAA 2-1 37.31 31.33 248
200 [18] Rockmart 7 – AA 1-2 37.27 42.63 153
201 [34] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 2-1 37.00 30.68 255
202 [31] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 4-0 37.00 8.96 380
203 [9] Turner County 2 – A 2-1 36.61 32.91 234
204 [35] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-0 36.56 25.56 293
205 [20] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-0 36.51 20.86 318
206 [10] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-1 36.43 39.24 172
207 [32] White County 7 – AAAA 3-1 36.42 28.60 274
208 [36] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-3 36.42 44.19 144
209 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 3-1 35.93 21.97 312
210 [12] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 2-1 35.52 24.36 300
211 [19] Dublin 3 – AA 2-2 35.19 32.02 240
212 [37] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 2-1 35.05 31.25 251
213 [21] Pierce County 2 – AAA 1-1 35.04 26.79 286
214 [42] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 35.04 34.51 221
215 [43] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 35.03 50.90 94
216 [33] Salem 4 – AAAA 2-1 35.01 27.77 281
217 [38] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 1-2 34.95 40.21 165
218 [39] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-2 34.92 42.42 155
219 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 1-1 34.43 36.96 197
220 [35] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-4 34.27 56.09 61
221 [36] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 2-1 33.92 29.38 269
222 [20] Chattooga 7 – AA 0-3 33.81 51.23 90
223 [21] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-2 33.78 38.50 179
224 [22] Washington County 3 – AA 0-3 33.65 53.92 77
225 [44] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-3 33.43 56.25 60
226 [11] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 1-2 33.35 40.51 164
227 [22] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-1 33.32 39.79 168
228 [45] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-3 32.93 63.03 35
229 [40] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 2-1 32.85 35.30 215
230 [42] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 3-0 32.41 23.29 307
231 [37] Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-2 32.38 44.65 138
232 [23] Union County 7 – AAA 3-0 32.24 2.70 402
233 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 0-3 32.04 50.30 97
234 [41] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 2-0 31.91 20.55 321
235 [23] Elbert County 8 – AA 2-1 31.74 25.02 296
236 [24] Douglass 6 – AA 1-2 31.71 36.03 204
237 [42] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-3 31.70 57.06 56
238 [13] Taylor County 4 – A 3-0 31.58 -1.21 410
239 [46] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-3 31.51 54.05 75
240 [25] Northeast 3 – AA 3-0 31.30 18.45 332
241 [26] Early County 1 – AA 2-1 31.29 19.89 327
242 [43] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 1-2 30.81 35.40 213
243 [47] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-3 30.60 51.68 89
244 [43] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-2 30.52 32.34 239
245 [27] Washington 6 – AA 2-1 30.20 32.43 238
246 [24] Redan 5 – AAA 1-2 30.06 43.69 148
247 [48] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 30.04 35.34 214
248 [25] Ringgold 6 – AAA 1-2 30.00 33.92 226
249 [38] Howard 2 – AAAA 3-1 29.79 21.47 316
250 [44] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-3 29.70 37.62 190
251 [44] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-3 29.44 38.87 175
252 [49] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 1-2 29.44 36.91 199
253 [14] Lincoln County 7 – A 1-2 29.17 30.22 263
254 [15] Trion 6 – A 2-1 29.17 16.44 342
255 [39] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-2 29.11 34.21 222
256 [28] Toombs County 2 – AA 3-0 29.05 16.42 343
257 [26] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-3 28.99 51.87 87
258 [50] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 28.95 29.31 271
259 [27] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-1 28.86 22.73 308
260 [16] Bowdon 6 – A 1-2 28.81 36.06 203
261 [45] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-1 28.81 26.37 289
262 [29] Model 7 – AA 0-3 28.73 42.42 154
263 [17] Pelham 1 – A 2-1 28.68 10.36 369
264 [28] Pike County 4 – AAA 2-1 28.49 15.20 350
265 [46] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-3 28.47 41.45 159
266 [47] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-2 28.30 46.64 124
267 [18] Marion County 4 – A 3-0 28.30 3.46 400
268 [51] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-1 28.15 26.01 291
269 [48] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 0-3 27.96 47.56 119
270 [13] Athens Christian 8 – A 1-2 27.94 36.15 202
271 [30] Lamar County 5 – AA 0-3 27.93 41.48 158
272 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 2-1 27.71 18.97 330
273 [52] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 3-0 27.55 7.25 387
274 [19] Telfair County 2 – A 1-2 27.10 28.32 275
275 [31] Berrien 1 – AA 2-2 26.83 29.93 265
276 [32] Bleckley County 3 – AA 3-1 26.77 15.00 351
277 [29] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-4 26.71 39.14 173
278 [30] East Hall 7 – AAA 2-1 26.51 17.82 333
279 [49] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 3-1 26.37 23.39 305
280 [40] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 1-3 26.33 31.98 241
281 [33] Laney 4 – AA 0-3 26.30 49.61 106
282 [15] Brookstone 4 – A 3-1 26.27 15.86 346
283 [45] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-2 26.00 31.86 243
284 [16] Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-2 25.97 38.14 185
285 [53] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 25.92 50.82 95
286 [31] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-3 25.75 40.11 166
287 [41] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-2 25.68 35.82 209
288 [42] Luella 4 – AAAA 0-4 25.44 41.05 162
289 [17] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-2 25.30 50.29 98
290 [32] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-1 25.23 17.69 334
291 [18] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-2 25.04 31.29 250
292 [46] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-3 24.97 33.93 225
293 [43] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 2-2 24.63 26.56 288
294 [34] Coosa 7 – AA 2-1 24.44 15.71 349
295 [33] Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-2 24.36 35.79 210
296 [34] North Hall 7 – AAA 0-3 24.33 38.59 178
297 [54] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 2-2 23.57 26.01 292
298 [50] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-2 23.37 30.60 257
299 [35] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-3 23.08 32.49 237
300 [51] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-3 22.98 44.25 142
301 [20] Mitchell County 1 – A 2-1 22.84 10.28 370
302 [19] George Walton Academy 8 – A 3-0 22.43 1.80 406
303 [36] Dougherty 1 – AAA 1-3 22.32 31.14 252
304 [35] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-0 22.31 8.38 382
305 [36] Putnam County 8 – AA 3-0 22.20 11.57 362
306 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 3-0 21.98 6.64 392
307 [44] Madison County 8 – AAAA 1-2 21.96 24.16 301
308 [52] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-2 21.93 12.41 360
309 [45] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-0 21.81 -2.24 411
310 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 3-0 21.63 -8.46 414
311 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 2-1 21.24 8.95 381
312 [37] Jordan 5 – AA 1-2 21.21 34.01 224
313 [55] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 0-3 21.18 39.61 169
314 [37] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-3 20.77 50.16 100
315 [21] Johnson County 3 – A 3-0 20.71 4.73 396
316 [38] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 1-2 20.67 27.39 283
317 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 20.56 30.60 256
318 [39] Metter 2 – AA 2-1 20.48 7.18 389
319 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 2-1 20.27 9.18 378
320 [22] Greene County 7 – A 1-2 20.01 23.48 304
321 [23] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-2 19.87 40.53 163
322 [38] Towers 5 – AAA 1-2 19.64 28.15 278
323 [53] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 0-3 19.32 36.93 198
324 [40] Banks County 8 – AA 1-2 19.31 24.00 302
325 [24] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-4 18.72 34.90 218
326 [23] Miller County 1 – A 1-1 18.40 16.16 344
327 [39] North Murray 6 – AAA 1-2 18.28 21.47 317
328 [41] Therrell 6 – AA 1-3 18.21 33.39 231
329 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-3 17.71 44.62 139
330 [42] Temple 5 – AA 3-0 17.38 -3.23 412
331 [24] Montgomery County 3 – A 2-0 17.26 7.35 386
332 [40] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 3-0 16.17 9.75 374
333 [25] Jenkins County 3 – A 2-1 16.03 9.41 377
334 [26] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-3 16.00 30.96 254
335 [47] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 1-2 15.97 18.54 331
336 [41] Beach 3 – AAA 1-1 15.54 21.66 315
337 [42] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-4 15.07 39.56 170
338 [43] Savannah 3 – AAA 1-1 14.98 12.86 358
339 [25] Walker 6 – A 0-3 14.29 33.55 229
340 [27] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-1 14.23 10.90 366
341 [28] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-3 14.16 32.56 236
342 [43] South Atlanta 6 – AA 1-3 13.97 35.46 212
343 [44] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 2-1 13.66 14.52 353
344 [29] Seminole County 1 – A 1-2 13.08 10.81 367
345 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-2 13.07 20.43 323
346 [26] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-1 12.87 4.69 398
347 [47] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-3 12.77 41.86 156
348 [30] Crawford County 4 – A 2-0 12.72 -18.64 418
349 [44] Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-2 12.60 20.18 325
350 [31] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-2 12.01 30.47 260
351 [45] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-3 11.99 31.84 244
352 [46] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-3 11.85 29.36 270
353 [47] Murray County 6 – AAA 2-1 11.60 1.37 407
354 [45] Harlem 4 – AA 2-1 11.46 1.89 404
355 [32] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-2 10.88 25.14 295
356 [27] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-2 10.82 31.70 245
357 [46] Dade County 7 – AA 1-2 10.82 17.22 338
358 [47] Monticello 8 – AA 0-3 10.37 25.26 294
359 [33] Atkinson County 2 – A 0-3 10.11 33.83 228
360 [48] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 0-3 10.10 24.79 297
361 [34] Terrell County 1 – A 0-3 9.48 26.01 290
362 [48] Islands 3 – AAA 1-2 9.48 27.25 285
363 [49] McNair 5 – AAA 2-1 9.46 -16.20 417
364 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-4 9.43 38.26 183
365 [48] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-2 8.28 16.64 341
366 [49] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-4 7.99 26.61 287
367 [35] Schley County 4 – A 1-1 7.90 9.90 372
368 [36] Gordon Lee 6 – A 1-2 6.83 4.70 397
369 [37] Treutlen 3 – A 1-2 6.80 7.73 383
370 [38] Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-3 6.73 21.83 314
371 [39] Wheeler County 3 – A 2-2 6.71 6.13 393
372 [28] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 1-2 6.67 19.97 326
373 [50] Long County 2 – AAA 0-3 6.65 15.77 347
374 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-2 5.98 2.96 401
375 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-4 5.60 38.60 177
376 [29] St. Francis 6 – A 1-1 5.41 12.46 359
377 [40] Towns County 8 – A 1-2 5.27 38.12 186
378 [50] Butler 4 – AA 1-2 4.80 11.64 361
379 [51] Josey 4 – AA 1-2 4.75 14.82 352
380 [51] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-2 4.31 28.62 273
381 [50] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 2-2 3.95 6.74 390
382 [30] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 2-2 3.61 1.86 405
383 [41] Warren County 7 – A 0-3 3.52 23.89 303
384 [42] Lanier County 2 – A 1-2 3.32 14.13 354
385 [52] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-2 3.05 7.20 388
386 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-3 1.92 31.95 242
387 [52] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-2 1.91 4.04 399
388 [43] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 1-1 1.50 -9.29 415
389 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 1-3 1.04 16.79 340
390 [53] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-2 0.76 13.12 356
391 [44] Portal 3 – A 0-2 0.61 23.30 306
392 [45] Claxton 3 – A 0-3 0.19 20.47 322
393 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-2 -0.04 6.67 391
394 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 2-1 -0.28 5.97 394
395 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-2 -0.48 15.72 348
396 [32] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 1-2 -1.68 9.79 373
397 [33] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-3 -1.70 22.27 311
398 [54] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-2 -1.79 20.41 324
399 [46] Greenville 4 – A 0-3 -1.96 35.88 207
400 [34] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-2 -2.59 -3.25 413
401 [35] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-2 -6.06 7.54 384
402 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-3 -6.53 28.19 277
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-4 -7.21 22.30 310
404 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-3 -7.92 33.33 232
405 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 0-2 -8.51 5.48 395
406 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-3 -9.24 10.53 368
407 [56] Groves 3 – AAA 0-3 -10.13 9.08 379
408 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-3 -10.99 17.40 337
409 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-3 -11.46 21.96 313
410 [55] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-2 -13.81 11.00 365
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-2 -14.78 10.08 371
412 [56] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-3 -14.96 11.39 363
413 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-2 -16.51 7.38 385
414 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-3 -17.65 27.79 280
415 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-4 -19.44 11.25 364
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 0-4 -27.86 1.98 403
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-1 -37.20 9.46 375
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-2 -42.15 -14.00 416

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 90.28 79.64
2 8 – AAAAAAA 89.95 64.93
3 3 – AAAAAAA 80.55 67.20
4 6 – AAAAAAA 79.86 58.88
5 4 – AAAAAAA 78.03 65.05
6 5 – AAAA 77.52 50.69
7 1 – AAAAAA 76.09 65.61
8 7 – AAAAAAA 74.53 54.16
9 7 – AAAAA 72.23 50.14
10 5 – AAAAAA 71.03 52.00
11 5 – AAAAAAA 70.91 56.62
12 4 – AAAAA 69.79 48.97
13 8 – AAAAA 69.68 39.48
14 4 – AAAAAA 68.81 47.62
15 6 – AAAAAA 68.47 52.64
16 1 – AAAAA 64.44 51.27
17 2 – AA 63.91 32.91
18 2 – AAAAAA 63.74 51.79
19 2 – AAAAAAA 63.04 50.33
20 5 – AAA 62.85 36.88
21 7 – AAAA 62.41 45.69
22 1 – AA 60.40 47.21
23 3 – AAAAA 60.29 40.28
24 3 – AAAA 59.40 31.06
25 2 – AAAA 59.11 45.80
26 8 – AAAAAA 58.95 44.28
27 2 – AAAAA 58.28 40.74
28 7 – AAA 58.04 29.17
29 8 – AAAA 57.57 41.91
30 4 – AAAA 56.24 30.10
31 5 – A 55.40 26.31
32 7 – AAAAAA 54.92 40.05
33 6 – AAA 54.15 24.05
  6-South – AAA 57.67 41.17
  6-North – AAA 24.43 9.52
34 5 – AA 52.86 35.07
35 1 – AAAA 52.46 39.01
36 4 – AAA 51.73 30.86
37 6 – AAAA 51.56 31.24
38 6 – AAAAA 51.48 36.49
39 2 – A 49.65 29.06
40 6 – AA 49.43 28.36
41 1 – AAA 48.32 35.69
42 4 – A 47.43 18.38
  4-Div B – A 44.57 22.83
  4-Div A – A 37.60 11.87
43 5 – AAAAA 47.08 33.38
44 3 – AA 46.75 32.69
45 3 – AAAAAA 46.16 33.32
46 8 – A 45.77 21.09
47 6 – A 45.51 20.69
  6-Div B – A 41.03 20.54
  6-Div A – A 39.01 20.86
48 8 – AA 44.47 17.33
49 7 – A 44.09 24.32
  7-Div A – A 41.08 25.34
  7-Div B – A 36.22 23.32
50 4 – AA 43.24 16.44
51 3 – A 41.21 18.97
  3-Div A – A 39.10 21.66
  3-Div B – A 31.51 16.96
52 7 – AA 40.77 22.49
53 2 – AAA 40.04 28.12
54 8 – AAA 38.59 25.92
55 3 – AAA 34.93 13.79
56 1 – A 26.57 7.58

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/08 Gordon Lee Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 7 – 24 6.85 66.5% 0.364
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 – 14 35.38 97.2% 0.389
08/18 Brookstone Jordan 14 – 22 5.85 64.2% 0.403
09/08 Lovejoy Spalding 41 – 42 6.94 66.7% 0.406
09/01 Macon County Irwin County 28 – 36 5.52 63.4% 0.408
08/31 Valdosta Wayne County 13 – 23 5.18 62.7% 0.410
08/25 Strong Rock Christian North Cobb Christian 17 – 20 6.08 64.7% 0.413
08/18 Treutlen Georgia Military College 20 – 21 6.30 65.2% 0.416
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 17 – 14 29.96 95.2% 0.439
09/01 Riverside Military Academy Providence Christian 14 – 17 3.58 58.9% 0.451
08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 – 17 3.48 58.6% 0.453
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 – 46 3.80 59.4% 0.453
09/08 Fitzgerald Macon County 21 – 42 2.16 55.4% 0.455
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 – 31 3.64 59.0% 0.455
09/08 Discovery Apalachee 28 – 29 3.62 59.0% 0.455

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.49 10/13 Grayson Archer 11.64 76.2%
87.28 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes 8.82 70.7%
86.39 09/08 Mill Creek Archer 13 – 16 0.69 51.7%
85.58 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 16.07 83.3%
84.78 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 – 19 2.77 56.9%
80.39 09/22 Archer Roswell 8.14 69.3%
80.11 09/29 Mill Creek North Gwinnett 8.34 69.7%
79.57 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker 35 – 21 17.07 84.6%
79.42 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell 28 – 0 17.20 84.8%
78.01 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 8.45 70.0%
77.84 10/06 McEachern North Cobb 7.77 68.5%
76.73 10/13 Roswell Walton 2.16 55.4%
76.72 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County 19.62 87.7%
76.67 08/19 North Gwinnett Walton 28 – 31 1.07 52.7%
75.49 08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 – 17 3.48 58.6%

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