Maxwell Week 3 Summary: Grayson, Colquitt, Lowndes state their case; Valdosta, Macon County surprise in losses

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Grayson topped McEachern in perhaps lackluster fashion, winning only 12-7 in their only in-state contest for another month. Although the win wasn’t as impressive as the Rams might have liked, this season already has some nice parallels to last year’s championship run — a first year coach with extensive previous experience in a successful program, plenty of talent, and a win, albeit tight, against one of the few true competitors in AAAAAAA. However the ability of McEachern to stay close tells us more about the Indians, and by extension Mill Creek. Grayson may be the clear front-runner, but don’t write down the state title in ink just yet.
– Colquitt County opened slow, but eventually overtook Tucker to avenge one of their surprising losses from last year. Look for Colquitt to avenge yet another loss against Roswell this week and then make the march toward Martin Stadium to face Lowndes at the end of October. Amazingly they were 0-3 this time last year when Roswell handed them yet another loss, a 34-3 drubbing which was the second worst defeat of the Rush Propst era. However the Packers have rolled to 10-1 since then.
– Lowndes overpowered Parkview 64-38 in game that the score makes it look closer than it actually was. Just as Colquitt County, look for the Viking to roll through their schedule at least until region play. Lowndes plays their next three games at home and their next four opponents are a combined 2-8.
– Perhaps the most surprising result of the weekend was Wayne County downing Valdosta 23-13 under first-year coach Ken Cribb. Cribb coached Bluffton in South Carolina to a 65-26 record over seven years, including taking them to the semi-finals three times and the finals once.
– Macon County was dropped by Irwin County 36-28, to become the only top rated team in any class to fall out of that position (Tucker remained the highest rated team in AAAAAA despite losing to Colquitt County). The victory by the Indians moved them up to number two among the Class A-Public schools. Irwin County will have a chance to make another statement when they face their next opponent in two weeks, Class A-Public’s new top rated team, Clinch County.


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 41.81%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 452 of 474 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.36%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.03 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.12

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 2-0 99.09 1 Tucker 2-1 78.06
2 Colquitt County 3-0 93.42 2 Lee County 3-0 74.83
3 Mill Creek 3-0 90.98 3 Mays 1-1 73.25
4 Lowndes 3-0 84.99 4 Coffee 3-0 71.26
5 McEachern 0-2 84.94 5 Hughes 2-0 70.10
6 Archer 2-0 80.35 6 Allatoona 1-2 67.89
7 Roswell 1-1 78.71 7 Glynn Academy 1-2 67.42
8 Norcross 1-1 78.68 8 Valdosta 1-2 67.15
9 North Cobb 3-0 74.71 9 Harrison 1-2 66.42
10 South Forsyth 3-0 74.19 10 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-1 65.80
11 Walton 3-0 73.99 11 Lovejoy 2-1 64.60
12 Tift County 3-0 73.04 12 Stephenson 0-2 62.98
13 Parkview 2-1 71.96 13 Dacula 0-2 62.15
14 North Gwinnett 2-1 71.48 14 Northgate 1-1 61.99
15 Brookwood 1-2 68.77 15 Dalton 1-1 61.13
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-0 83.89 1 Cartersville 3-0 88.59
2 Stockbridge 2-0 78.67 2 Sandy Creek 2-0 71.96
3 Rome 2-0 75.50 3 Woodward Academy 2-0 71.45
4 Carrollton 2-0 69.17 4 Thomson 3-0 69.03
5 Warner Robins 3-0 66.56 5 Marist 2-0 65.14
6 Kell 0-2 66.34 6 Blessed Trinity 2-1 64.87
7 Starr’s Mill 2-0 64.67 7 Jefferson 2-1 63.04
8 Jones County 2-0 63.80 8 Mary Persons 2-1 61.93
9 Ware County 0-2 61.86 9 Ridgeland 3-0 58.57
10 Griffin 2-0 61.56 10 Cairo 1-1 56.18
11 Wayne County 2-0 60.91 11 Burke County 3-0 55.21
12 Bainbridge 1-1 60.21 12 St. Pius X 0-2 51.25
13 Woodland (Stockbridge) 2-1 54.74 13 Upson-Lee 2-0 50.03
14 Dutchtown 2-0 54.53 14 Troup 3-0 48.14
15 Southwest DeKalb 2-1 53.04 15 Northwest Whitfield 2-1 46.01
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-0 73.12 1 Benedictine 2-0 80.72
2 Cedar Grove 2-0 72.10 2 Thomasville 3-0 62.21
3 Calhoun 2-1 66.15 3 Fitzgerald 1-2 61.87
4 Peach County 1-1 60.63 4 Hapeville Charter 2-1 59.83
5 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-3 55.53 5 Callaway 2-0 59.03
6 Lovett 1-2 54.13 6 Rabun County 2-0 58.74
7 Crisp County 3-0 53.35 7 Brooks County 2-0 56.40
8 Pace Academy 0-2 48.06 8 Dodge County 2-0 49.33
9 Dawson County 2-0 44.40 9 Jefferson County 2-0 48.03
10 Adairsville 2-1 43.69 10 Screven County 2-0 47.34
11 Jenkins 2-0 43.01 11 Pepperell 1-1 46.83
12 Bremen 2-0 42.90 12 Heard County 2-1 43.92
13 Monroe 1-1 41.98 13 Vidalia 0-1 42.61
14 Sonoraville 2-0 41.61 14 Swainsboro 2-0 42.25
15 Jackson 1-2 41.43 15 Spencer 1-1 38.68
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Clinch County 2-1 51.10 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 3-0 68.13
2 Irwin County 2-1 49.67 2 Prince Avenue Christian 3-0 53.46
3 Manchester 3-0 47.15 3 Wesleyan 3-0 51.30
4 Macon County 1-1 46.35 4 Tattnall Square 1-0 44.93
5 Commerce 2-0 40.18 5 Mount Paran Christian 2-1 44.53
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 2-0 39.41 6 Calvary Day 2-0 43.91
7 Charlton County 2-0 39.07 7 Stratford Academy 2-0 43.43
8 Turner County 2-1 39.00 8 Aquinas 1-1 40.21
9 Emanuel County Institute 2-1 37.42 9 Darlington 1-1 39.96
10 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 36.64 10 Athens Academy 2-0 36.20
11 Washington-Wilkes 1-1 33.34 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 2-1 35.42
12 Taylor County 2-0 32.18 12 Fellowship Christian 1-1 33.16
13 Trion 2-0 31.76 13 Athens Christian 1-1 31.95
14 Dooly County 0-3 31.04 14 Pinecrest Academy 0-2 27.34
15 Lincoln County 1-1 30.59 15 George Walton Academy 2-0 26.35

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 99.09 83.81 2
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-0 93.42 77.81 7
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 3-0 90.98 70.19 19
4 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 3-0 88.59 67.02 28
5 [4] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 3-0 84.99 68.43 22
6 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 0-2 84.94 95.60 1
7 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 2-0 83.89 60.54 48
8 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 2-0 80.72 58.77 54
9 [6] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 80.35 63.65 35
10 [7] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 78.71 70.82 16
11 [8] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 1-1 78.68 79.02 4
12 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 2-0 78.67 69.49 21
13 [1] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 78.06 65.00 33
14 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 2-0 75.50 55.53 79
15 [2] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 74.83 53.39 91
16 [9] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 74.71 58.81 53
17 [10] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 3-0 74.19 48.79 110
18 [11] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-0 73.99 60.63 47
19 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 1-1 73.25 68.03 25
20 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 2-0 73.12 54.83 85
21 [12] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-0 73.04 42.70 150
22 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 2-0 72.10 58.01 65
23 [2] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 2-0 71.96 56.82 69
24 [13] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-1 71.96 63.04 37
25 [14] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 2-1 71.48 66.21 30
26 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 2-0 71.45 46.44 123
27 [4] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 71.26 55.69 77
28 [5] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 70.10 54.95 84
29 [4] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 2-0 69.17 38.60 186
30 [4] Thomson 3 – AAAA 3-0 69.03 50.33 102
31 [15] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 1-2 68.77 71.87 14
32 [16] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 68.21 58.34 60
33 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 3-0 68.13 51.31 98
34 [6] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.89 73.38 12
35 [17] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 3-0 67.76 46.39 124
36 [7] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.42 72.06 13
37 [8] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1-2 67.15 65.14 32
38 [18] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-1 66.83 60.75 45
39 [5] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-0 66.56 58.71 55
40 [19] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 66.47 58.65 57
41 [9] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 66.42 68.41 23
42 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 0-2 66.34 73.47 11
43 [20] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 2-1 66.32 66.41 29
44 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 2-1 66.15 60.82 44
45 [21] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-0 65.96 54.30 88
46 [10] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 2-1 65.80 40.23 172
47 [22] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-1 65.75 58.39 59
48 [23] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 65.42 44.80 133
49 [5] Marist 7 – AAAA 2-0 65.14 55.25 81
50 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 2-1 64.87 58.03 64
51 [7] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 2-0 64.67 55.70 76
52 [24] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 64.64 41.59 159
53 [11] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 64.60 58.12 63
54 [25] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 64.22 57.10 68
55 [8] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 2-0 63.80 41.84 158
56 [26] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 3-0 63.22 14.62 352
57 [7] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 2-1 63.04 45.95 127
58 [12] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 62.98 80.98 3
59 [2] Thomasville 1 – AA 3-0 62.21 48.19 113
60 [13] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 0-2 62.15 78.65 5
61 [14] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 1-1 61.99 55.68 78
62 [8] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 2-1 61.93 45.56 129
63 [3] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-2 61.87 59.97 51
64 [9] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-2 61.86 70.46 17
65 [27] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 1-2 61.85 53.01 94
66 [10] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 2-0 61.56 40.53 170
67 [15] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 61.13 56.08 74
68 [11] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-0 60.91 56.53 71
69 [16] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 1-1 60.88 59.85 52
70 [4] Peach County 4 – AAA 1-1 60.63 56.65 70
71 [28] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 60.54 60.01 50
72 [29] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 0-2 60.54 78.25 6
73 [30] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 1-2 60.30 62.85 38
74 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 1-1 60.21 75.96 8
75 [4] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 2-1 59.83 54.97 83
76 [31] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 0-3 59.65 75.53 9
77 [17] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 59.20 46.46 122
78 [5] Callaway 5 – AA 2-0 59.03 36.29 206
79 [6] Rabun County 8 – AA 2-0 58.74 39.85 176
80 [9] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 3-0 58.57 43.87 141
81 [32] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 57.29 48.19 114
82 [7] Brooks County 1 – AA 2-0 56.40 44.24 138
83 [10] Cairo 1 – AAAA 1-1 56.18 55.97 75
84 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-3 55.53 70.24 18
85 [18] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-2 55.24 69.58 20
86 [19] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 55.23 55.20 82
87 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 3-0 55.21 32.18 234
88 [13] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 2-1 54.74 38.02 191
89 [14] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 2-0 54.53 36.66 200
90 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 1-2 54.13 58.68 56
91 [20] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 2-1 54.05 51.20 99
92 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 3-0 53.46 26.82 279
93 [7] Crisp County 1 – AAA 3-0 53.35 37.46 193
94 [33] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-2 53.30 64.48 34
95 [15] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-1 53.04 50.16 104
96 [16] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 1-1 52.50 58.55 58
97 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-1 52.44 49.45 107
98 [21] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 1-1 52.25 54.32 87
99 [22] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 51.99 26.73 280
100 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 51.91 47.79 116
101 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 2-1 51.81 37.41 194
102 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 3-0 51.30 23.36 301
103 [12] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-2 51.25 73.92 10
104 [18] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 2-1 51.16 46.16 126
105 [1] Clinch County 2 – A 2-1 51.10 38.46 187
106 [24] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 3-0 50.74 36.60 202
107 [19] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 2-0 50.61 36.66 201
108 [20] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-2 50.34 65.53 31
109 [25] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 50.13 44.27 136
110 [35] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 50.06 43.63 143
111 [13] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 2-0 50.03 31.31 242
112 [21] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 3-0 49.67 22.31 310
113 [2] Irwin County 2 – A 2-1 49.67 45.51 131
114 [36] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-2 49.42 67.48 27
115 [8] Dodge County 3 – AA 2-0 49.33 44.27 137
116 [22] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-1 49.06 35.76 209
117 [37] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 48.61 43.72 142
118 [14] Troup 5 – AAAA 3-0 48.14 27.84 265
119 [8] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-2 48.06 61.77 41
120 [26] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 48.03 63.31 36
121 [9] Jefferson County 4 – AA 2-0 48.03 28.71 258
122 [27] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 47.99 62.50 39
123 [28] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 2-0 47.70 35.26 212
124 [23] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 1-2 47.49 51.18 100
125 [10] Screven County 4 – AA 2-0 47.34 0.00 406
126 [3] Manchester 4 – A 3-0 47.15 22.94 306
127 [29] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 46.89 61.02 43
128 [11] Pepperell 7 – AA 1-1 46.83 50.18 103
129 [30] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 46.73 61.71 42
130 [31] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 0-3 46.73 58.27 61
131 [24] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 2-1 46.68 42.53 154
132 [38] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-3 46.58 68.25 24
133 [4] Macon County 4 – A 1-1 46.35 39.23 180
134 [39] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-3 46.20 62.00 40
135 [32] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-2 46.18 49.38 108
136 [15] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-1 46.01 32.31 231
137 [33] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 2-0 45.94 27.48 271
138 [16] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 0-2 45.92 56.24 73
139 [4] Tattnall Square 7 – A 1-0 44.93 15.26 347
140 [25] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 1-1 44.57 42.91 147
141 [5] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 2-1 44.53 32.73 227
142 [9] Dawson County 7 – AAA 2-0 44.40 33.02 225
143 [17] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 1-1 44.28 38.22 189
144 [12] Heard County 5 – AA 2-1 43.92 26.70 281
145 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 2-0 43.91 1.17 400
146 [18] Eastside 4 – AAAA 2-1 43.82 33.19 223
147 [10] Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-1 43.69 40.64 169
148 [19] Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-2 43.66 55.28 80
149 [7] Stratford Academy 7 – A 2-0 43.43 22.85 307
150 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 2-0 43.33 23.11 303
151 [21] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 3-0 43.14 16.61 341
152 [11] Jenkins 3 – AAA 2-0 43.01 30.47 247
153 [12] Bremen 6 – AAA 2-0 42.90 36.34 205
154 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 1-1 42.77 38.29 188
155 [34] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 42.68 32.52 228
156 [13] Vidalia 2 – AA 0-1 42.61 48.20 112
157 [26] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 2-0 42.55 23.85 297
158 [23] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 2-0 42.54 27.31 275
159 [14] Swainsboro 2 – AA 2-0 42.25 39.43 178
160 [27] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 1-1 42.10 42.76 149
161 [13] Monroe 1 – AAA 1-1 41.98 49.97 105
162 [24] Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-1 41.79 42.38 155
163 [35] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 1-1 41.77 25.21 288
164 [36] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 41.70 67.91 26
165 [28] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 2-0 41.64 20.89 321
166 [14] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 2-0 41.61 33.31 221
167 [15] Jackson 4 – AAA 1-2 41.43 43.09 145
168 [25] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 1-1 41.20 41.07 165
169 [37] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 41.18 58.18 62
170 [16] Morgan County 8 – AAA 2-0 40.54 27.47 273
171 [8] Aquinas 7 – A 1-1 40.21 38.77 183
172 [5] Commerce 8 – A 2-0 40.18 21.17 320
173 [26] West Hall 7 – AAAA 2-1 40.06 28.22 261
174 [9] Darlington 6 – A 1-1 39.96 57.45 67
175 [17] Liberty County 2 – AAA 1-1 39.72 33.15 224
176 [29] Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-2 39.60 53.79 89
177 [18] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-2 39.58 41.94 157
178 [38] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 2-0 39.42 34.46 215
179 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 2-0 39.41 2.92 395
180 [7] Charlton County 2 – A 2-0 39.07 29.64 253
181 [8] Turner County 2 – A 2-1 39.00 37.02 197
182 [15] Spencer 5 – AA 1-1 38.68 40.45 171
183 [30] Ola 4 – AAAAA 1-2 38.57 44.07 139
184 [39] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-1 38.40 40.96 166
185 [27] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-3 38.36 43.17 144
186 [16] Washington County 3 – AA 0-2 38.07 60.63 46
187 [40] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-0 38.04 24.11 296
188 [31] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 0-2 38.00 50.39 101
189 [17] Southwest 3 – AA 1-1 37.96 42.80 148
190 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 1-2 37.93 52.37 95
191 [32] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-2 37.84 41.23 162
192 [29] White County 7 – AAAA 3-0 37.69 22.30 311
193 [18] Dublin 3 – AA 2-1 37.50 27.81 266
194 [9] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 2-1 37.42 20.65 323
195 [19] Cook 1 – AAA 0-3 37.39 60.47 49
196 [19] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-0 37.25 30.87 246
197 [33] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 1-1 37.16 38.14 190
198 [30] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 2-1 37.03 33.77 218
199 [34] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 2-0 37.00 23.70 299
200 [40] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 36.71 25.08 289
201 [10] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-1 36.64 39.55 177
202 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 1-1 36.62 35.85 208
203 [20] Douglass 6 – AA 1-1 36.55 41.13 164
204 [35] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 2-0 36.50 26.40 284
205 [36] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-0 36.39 19.75 325
206 [32] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-3 36.29 56.38 72
207 [10] Athens Academy 8 – A 2-0 36.20 10.86 369
208 [41] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 2-0 36.13 29.07 254
209 [42] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 35.75 54.60 86
210 [43] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 35.69 35.37 211
211 [44] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 35.59 70.87 15
212 [37] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-2 35.43 42.65 152
213 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 2-1 35.42 26.06 287
214 [45] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 35.28 51.32 97
215 [46] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 35.20 40.90 167
216 [33] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 3-0 35.03 -4.37 410
217 [21] Chattooga 7 – AA 0-2 34.86 45.52 130
218 [20] Pierce County 2 – AAA 1-1 34.86 26.38 285
219 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 1-0 34.79 13.46 356
220 [38] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-1 34.75 32.01 237
221 [21] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-3 34.55 44.06 140
222 [35] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 2-0 34.06 13.24 357
223 [22] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 2-0 33.85 22.19 312
224 [41] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 33.57 48.52 111
225 [23] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-1 33.53 40.20 173
226 [11] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 1-1 33.34 36.36 204
227 [12] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 1-1 33.16 27.48 270
228 [47] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 33.10 32.03 236
229 [24] Union County 7 – AAA 2-0 33.07 3.82 394
230 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 1-2 32.93 44.70 134
231 [23] Rockmart 7 – AA 1-2 32.78 35.90 207
232 [36] Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-1 32.39 34.53 213
233 [12] Taylor County 4 – A 2-0 32.18 4.20 393
234 [37] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-1 32.01 34.42 216
235 [38] Salem 4 – AAAA 1-1 31.95 31.87 238
236 [13] Athens Christian 8 – A 1-1 31.95 32.25 233
237 [39] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 1-2 31.85 36.92 198
238 [40] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 1-1 31.79 37.23 196
239 [13] Trion 6 – A 2-0 31.76 9.61 374
240 [48] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-2 31.60 49.15 109
241 [24] Washington 6 – AA 1-1 31.48 46.53 121
242 [41] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-2 31.27 57.47 66
243 [25] Model 7 – AA 0-2 31.18 42.65 153
244 [42] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-2 31.17 41.22 163
245 [14] Dooly County 4 – A 0-3 31.04 47.34 119
246 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 30.96 36.37 203
247 [42] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 2-0 30.91 18.53 331
248 [25] Redan 5 – AAA 1-2 30.80 45.28 132
249 [15] Lincoln County 7 – A 1-1 30.59 31.66 239
250 [50] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 1-2 30.54 38.74 184
251 [26] Elbert County 8 – AA 2-1 30.41 23.27 302
252 [26] Ringgold 6 – AAA 1-2 29.84 33.20 222
253 [43] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-2 29.68 40.12 174
254 [27] Northeast 3 – AA 2-0 29.53 21.42 318
255 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-2 29.46 38.98 181
256 [51] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-0 29.29 18.96 327
257 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-2 29.20 42.68 151
258 [16] Telfair County 2 – A 1-1 29.13 27.43 274
259 [44] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-2 29.12 47.46 118
260 [28] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-0 29.11 17.59 336
261 [44] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 28.95 13.22 359
262 [45] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 0-3 28.90 48.09 115
263 [39] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 1-2 28.88 32.44 229
264 [46] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-2 28.87 41.29 161
265 [17] Pelham 1 – A 2-1 28.59 11.05 368
266 [47] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-1 28.55 26.13 286
267 [28] Lamar County 5 – AA 0-2 28.26 35.48 210
268 [18] Bowdon 6 – A 0-2 28.15 44.39 135
269 [40] Luella 4 – AAAA 0-3 28.07 41.54 160
270 [41] Howard 2 – AAAA 2-1 28.07 24.51 293
271 [42] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-1 27.98 32.42 230
272 [52] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 2-0 27.83 10.51 372
273 [29] Berrien 1 – AA 2-1 27.64 24.53 292
274 [29] Pike County 4 – AAA 1-1 27.54 23.69 300
275 [14] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-2 27.34 53.06 93
276 [30] Toombs County 2 – AA 2-0 27.06 12.12 362
277 [53] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 27.01 53.28 92
278 [19] Marion County 4 – A 2-0 26.94 7.01 384
279 [48] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 1-1 26.42 34.29 217
280 [45] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 26.37 16.94 339
281 [30] East Hall 7 – AAA 1-1 26.36 27.02 277
282 [15] George Walton Academy 8 – A 2-0 26.35 4.82 392
283 [31] Laney 4 – AA 0-3 26.34 49.68 106
284 [16] First Presbyterian 7 – A 1-1 25.97 22.43 309
285 [31] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-1 25.86 18.53 330
286 [17] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-3 25.86 38.91 182
287 [32] Coosa 7 – AA 2-0 25.83 0.58 404
288 [18] Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-2 25.82 37.73 192
289 [32] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-3 25.75 40.12 175
290 [33] Early County 1 – AA 1-1 25.66 17.57 337
291 [49] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-2 25.41 46.75 120
292 [50] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-1 25.34 1.34 399
293 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-2 24.73 30.44 248
294 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 3-0 24.26 14.14 353
295 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 23.92 53.67 90
296 [33] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-2 23.67 27.02 278
297 [34] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-1 23.62 17.48 338
298 [52] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-2 23.13 29.91 250
299 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 1-2 23.12 28.82 256
300 [20] Miller County 1 – A 1-0 23.04 9.53 375
301 [35] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-0 22.46 8.62 380
302 [36] Putnam County 8 – AA 3-0 22.44 11.66 365
303 [20] Brookstone 4 – A 2-1 22.31 13.50 355
304 [21] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 2-0 21.86 9.29 377
305 [37] Metter 2 – AA 1-1 21.19 15.52 344
306 [35] North Murray 6 – AAA 1-1 20.97 15.29 346
307 [43] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 1-2 20.94 28.81 257
308 [36] North Hall 7 – AAA 0-2 20.84 31.29 243
309 [44] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 3-0 20.72 -10.42 413
310 [21] Greene County 7 – A 0-2 20.68 31.49 241
311 [22] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 1-1 20.55 20.75 322
312 [23] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-1 20.35 45.65 128
313 [38] Jordan 5 – AA 1-1 20.15 27.91 264
314 [37] Franklin County 8 – AAA 0-2 19.95 42.11 156
315 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 0-3 19.95 37.33 195
316 [22] Johnson County 3 – A 2-0 19.91 1.08 401
317 [24] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 1-1 19.83 21.94 314
318 [39] Banks County 8 – AA 1-2 19.54 24.36 295
319 [38] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-2 19.52 31.54 240
320 [23] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-2 19.32 28.19 262
321 [24] Mitchell County 1 – A 1-1 19.28 0.82 403
322 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 1-2 18.64 26.62 283
323 [39] Towers 5 – AAA 1-2 18.52 24.98 290
324 [45] Madison County 8 – AAAA 0-2 18.49 28.64 259
325 [40] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 0-2 17.41 32.96 226
326 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-2 17.35 47.66 117
327 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-2 17.34 52.22 96
328 [47] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 2-0 17.31 -14.67 416
329 [41] Temple 5 – AA 2-0 16.66 -3.53 408
330 [25] Seminole County 1 – A 1-1 16.45 0.97 402
331 [42] Therrell 6 – AA 0-3 16.04 38.61 185
332 [54] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 0-2 15.98 32.28 232
333 [40] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-3 15.94 39.42 179
334 [41] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-2 15.84 34.53 214
335 [26] Gordon Lee 6 – A 1-1 15.74 10.73 371
336 [42] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 2-0 15.60 11.24 367
337 [43] Beach 3 – AAA 1-1 15.51 21.60 316
338 [44] Savannah 3 – AAA 1-1 15.36 13.22 358
339 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-2 15.32 33.75 219
340 [27] Jenkins County 3 – A 2-1 15.27 7.73 381
341 [43] South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-3 15.00 42.96 146
342 [45] Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-1 14.92 16.27 343
343 [28] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-2 14.79 36.90 199
344 [29] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-1 14.14 26.67 282
345 [25] Walker 6 – A 0-2 14.04 29.03 255
346 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-2 14.00 21.50 317
347 [44] Dade County 7 – AA 1-2 13.86 22.63 308
348 [30] Montgomery County 3 – A 1-0 13.80 7.17 383
349 [46] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-2 13.46 32.16 235
350 [45] Harlem 4 – AA 2-0 13.16 -10.71 414
351 [48] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 0-2 13.13 24.38 294
352 [46] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 2-0 13.06 2.54 396
353 [47] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 1-2 12.98 13.88 354
354 [31] Crawford County 4 – A 2-0 12.83 -16.24 417
355 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-3 12.72 46.25 125
356 [32] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-2 11.69 28.25 260
357 [47] McNair 5 – AAA 2-0 11.40 -28.11 418
358 [47] Monticello 8 – AA 0-2 11.05 29.74 252
359 [48] Butler 4 – AA 1-1 10.99 18.27 332
360 [33] Terrell County 1 – A 0-3 10.65 27.56 268
361 [34] Atkinson County 2 – A 0-2 10.43 27.81 267
362 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-1 9.94 18.76 329
363 [48] Islands 3 – AAA 1-2 9.84 27.25 276
364 [27] Mount de Sales 7 – A 1-1 9.75 8.76 379
365 [49] Murray County 6 – AAA 1-1 8.86 2.27 397
366 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 1-2 8.71 12.03 363
367 [35] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 1-1 8.54 5.93 388
368 [36] Wheeler County 3 – A 2-1 8.53 1.87 398
369 [37] Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-2 8.41 18.88 328
370 [49] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-2 8.33 16.68 340
371 [50] Josey 4 – AA 1-1 7.78 10.85 370
372 [38] Schley County 4 – A 1-1 7.72 9.31 376
373 [50] Long County 2 – AAA 0-2 6.81 15.03 349
374 [39] Treutlen 3 – A 1-2 6.52 7.30 382
375 [51] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-3 6.05 19.48 326
376 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 1-1 5.65 12.73 360
377 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 1-2 5.35 14.72 351
378 [40] Towns County 8 – A 1-1 5.34 27.47 272
379 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-3 4.96 30.10 249
380 [29] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-1 4.76 22.10 313
381 [30] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-2 4.53 29.76 251
382 [31] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 2-1 4.52 -3.70 409
383 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 1-2 4.29 19.82 324
384 [51] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-2 4.04 28.03 263
385 [41] Warren County 7 – A 0-2 3.90 17.80 334
386 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-3 2.69 30.95 245
387 [42] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 1-1 1.54 -9.45 412
388 [52] East Jackson 8 – AAA 0-2 1.32 15.24 348
389 [43] Portal 3 – A 0-2 0.66 23.09 304
390 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 2-1 0.60 6.40 386
391 [44] Lanier County 2 – A 0-2 0.46 23.74 298
392 [32] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-1 0.17 -9.27 411
393 [45] Claxton 3 – A 0-2 -0.43 21.74 315
394 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-2 -1.29 23.02 305
395 [33] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 1-1 -1.53 5.09 391
396 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-1 -2.11 -3.33 407
397 [46] Greenville 4 – A 0-2 -2.26 40.79 168
398 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 1-2 -3.63 5.54 390
399 [34] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-2 -4.29 24.66 291
400 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-3 -5.23 21.38 319
401 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 0-2 -6.13 12.72 361
402 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-2 -6.37 33.67 220
403 [35] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-1 -6.39 0.12 405
404 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 0-2 -8.33 5.75 389
405 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-3 -9.25 31.18 244
406 [54] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-1 -11.11 17.78 335
407 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-2 -11.34 15.42 345
408 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 0-2 -11.66 10.16 373
409 [56] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-2 -12.02 16.46 342
410 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-2 -13.55 6.84 385
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-2 -15.07 6.38 387
412 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-3 -17.57 27.53 269
413 [56] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-2 -18.43 14.79 350
414 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-3 -19.14 11.76 364
415 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 0-2 -21.48 17.87 333
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 0-3 -23.06 9.18 378
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-1 -37.09 11.40 366
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-2 -42.07 -13.95 415

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 90.05 79.48
2 8 – AAAAAAA 88.07 63.14
3 6 – AAAAAAA 81.21 59.82
4 3 – AAAAAAA 80.62 66.73
5 4 – AAAAAAA 77.91 65.18
6 5 – AAAA 76.86 49.34
7 1 – AAAAAA 76.23 65.87
8 7 – AAAAAAA 75.99 53.61
9 7 – AAAAA 71.67 50.23
10 5 – AAAAAA 71.67 52.25
11 5 – AAAAAAA 71.52 57.11
12 4 – AAAAA 70.44 49.33
13 4 – AAAAAA 70.25 49.57
14 6 – AAAAAA 68.76 53.46
15 8 – AAAAA 68.34 38.56
16 2 – AA 63.91 32.72
17 2 – AAAAAAA 63.90 49.58
18 1 – AAAAA 63.73 51.49
19 2 – AAAAAA 63.55 51.85
20 5 – AAA 63.29 37.15
21 7 – AAAA 62.94 45.66
22 1 – AA 62.78 48.23
23 3 – AAAAA 60.10 39.65
24 8 – AAAAAA 59.07 44.67
25 2 – AAAAA 59.03 41.01
26 3 – AAAA 58.95 27.87
27 7 – AAA 58.28 29.52
28 8 – AAAA 57.70 42.37
29 2 – AAAA 57.68 43.97
30 4 – AAAA 57.30 31.09
31 5 – A 56.28 28.14
32 7 – AAAAAA 55.04 40.16
33 6 – AAA 54.38 23.95
  6-South – AAA 57.88 41.94
  6-North – AAA 24.23 6.47
34 1 – AAAA 53.12 38.88
35 6 – AAAA 51.79 30.94
36 5 – AA 51.42 33.80
37 4 – AAA 51.11 30.67
38 2 – A 49.86 30.12
39 1 – AAA 49.72 38.04
40 6 – AAAAA 49.42 34.23
41 6 – AA 49.01 28.58
42 5 – AAAAA 48.67 34.73
43 3 – AA 47.10 32.64
44 8 – A 45.89 21.56
45 3 – AAAAAA 45.73 32.91
46 6 – A 45.63 21.90
  6-Div B – A 40.27 20.43
  6-Div A – A 40.22 23.52
47 7 – A 45.01 24.71
  7-Div A – A 42.39 25.70
  7-Div B – A 36.63 23.76
48 8 – AA 44.65 17.94
49 4 – A 44.08 17.59
  4-Div B – A 39.84 22.49
  4-Div A – A 36.45 10.44
50 4 – AA 43.36 17.97
51 7 – AA 42.26 23.41
52 3 – A 40.90 18.41
  3-Div A – A 39.14 21.49
  3-Div B – A 30.58 16.16
53 2 – AAA 40.57 28.50
54 8 – AAA 38.37 24.67
55 3 – AAA 34.53 14.08
56 1 – A 26.68 7.31

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/31 Valdosta Wayne County 13 – 23 7.36 67.6% 0.370
08/25 Strong Rock Christian North Cobb Christian 17 – 20 7.18 67.2% 0.395
08/25 Loganville Monroe Area 14 – 24 5.12 62.5% 0.411
08/18 Grady North Atlanta 7 – 21 4.60 61.3% 0.414
09/01 First Presbyterian Brookstone 27 – 34 4.79 61.7% 0.423
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 – 14 30.72 95.6% 0.432
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 – 31 5.24 62.8% 0.432
08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 – 17 4.52 61.1% 0.437
08/18 Treutlen Georgia Military College 20 – 21 4.79 61.8% 0.438
08/18 Brookstone Jordan 14 – 22 3.28 58.1% 0.447
08/25 Westside (Macon) Southwest 12 – 26 1.63 54.1% 0.470
08/25 Liberty County Bradwell Institute 7 – 22 1.42 53.6% 0.474
09/01 Whitewater Hampton 31 – 28 25.44 92.7% 0.480
08/26 Lithonia Redan 9 – 18 1.05 52.6% 0.483
09/01 Riverside Military Academy Providence Christian 14 – 17 0.97 52.4% 0.488

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.90 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes 7.31 67.5%
87.06 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 – 19 6.04 64.7%
86.84 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 – 7 15.28 82.2%
83.14 10/13 Grayson Archer 17.62 85.3%
82.43 09/08 Mill Creek Archer 11.75 76.4%
81.19 08/19 Colquitt County Norcross 20 – 17 14.74 81.4%
80.56 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell 15.84 83.0%
79.85 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker 35 – 21 16.49 83.9%
79.52 09/22 Archer Roswell 0.52 51.3%
79.32 09/15 Archer Norcross 2.79 56.9%
77.83 10/06 McEachern North Cobb 9.10 71.3%
76.25 10/13 Lowndes Tift County 10.82 74.7%
75.94 08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 – 17 4.52 61.1%
75.50 08/26 Stockbridge Mays 9 – 0 4.29 60.6%
75.50 10/13 Roswell Walton 5.85 64.2%

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