Maxwell Preseason Summary: Grayson, Colquitt look to extend recent success

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Grayson and Roswell each lost their head coach while Mill Creek lost defensive coordinator Bill Stewart whose three year tenure with the Hawks coincided with the most successful seasons in the school’s short history. In short, aside from Colquitt County, change has been rule instead of the exception for the teams at the top of the ratings during the off season. Still, it would be unwise to discount any of those teams, or many of the others, as the new season gets underway.
– Fortunately for fans the outlook should soon become clearer as several top games are scheduled early in the season, including three of the top-15 matchups on opening weekend with seven more following before most of the state fully embraces region play in October. And just as last year, Colquitt County may have the best schedule to watch as they play in five of the eight highest rated match ups while facing down the toughest slate in the state.
– Although the top spots are normally reserved for teams from the largest classification, Cartersville (AAAA), Valdosta (AAAAAA), Buford (AAAAA), and Tucker (AAAAAA) are all in the top ten in the state with six more appearing in the state’s top 20.
– I’ve changed the way competitive regions are measured. Previously the Competitive Rating was the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition. This season the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams.


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 100.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (–.–%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within –.– points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.


Home Advantage: 1.35

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 0-0 98.96 1 Valdosta 0-0 82.92
2 Colquitt County 0-0 94.64 2 Tucker 0-0 79.82
3 Mill Creek 0-0 91.15 3 Northside (Warner Robins) 0-0 76.57
4 Roswell 0-0 90.63 4 Mays 0-0 73.91
5 McEachern 0-0 85.71 5 Lee County 0-0 72.97
6 Lowndes 0-0 79.02 6 Houston County 0-0 70.91
7 Norcross 0-0 76.79 7 Glynn Academy 0-0 70.24
8 Archer 0-0 76.21 8 Dalton 0-0 70.11
9 North Cobb 0-0 73.78 9 Allatoona 0-0 69.33
10 Peachtree Ridge 0-0 72.95 10 Coffee 0-0 69.24
11 Westlake 0-0 70.73 11 Harrison 0-0 67.21
12 Parkview 0-0 68.87 12 Stephenson 0-0 65.90
13 North Gwinnett 0-0 68.82 13 Northgate 0-0 65.55
14 Etowah 0-0 68.00 14 Hughes 0-0 64.72
15 Tift County 0-0 67.26 15 Alexander 0-0 63.58
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 0-0 82.76 1 Cartersville 0-0 85.77
2 Stockbridge 0-0 72.52 2 Woodward Academy 0-0 71.99
3 Rome 0-0 70.39 3 Thomson 0-0 67.16
4 Kell 0-0 69.51 4 Sandy Creek 0-0 66.49
5 Ware County 0-0 68.94 5 Blessed Trinity 0-0 64.10
6 Carrollton 0-0 66.48 6 Jefferson 0-0 63.48
7 Jones County 0-0 60.73 7 Mary Persons 0-0 61.36
8 Griffin 0-0 58.25 8 Marist 0-0 60.89
9 Woodland (Stockbridge) 0-0 58.13 9 Cairo 0-0 56.17
10 Bainbridge 0-0 57.23 10 Spalding 0-0 54.07
11 Starr’s Mill 0-0 55.83 11 Burke County 0-0 54.01
12 Thomas County Central 0-0 55.71 12 Carver (Columbus) 0-0 52.41
13 East Paulding 0-0 52.73 13 St. Pius X 0-0 52.07
14 Grady 0-0 52.58 14 West Laurens 0-0 49.25
15 Warner Robins 0-0 52.36 15 Eastside 0-0 47.26
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 0-0 68.75 1 Benedictine 0-0 76.84
2 Cedar Grove 0-0 65.12 2 Fitzgerald 0-0 66.11
3 Calhoun 0-0 64.76 3 Callaway 0-0 56.00
4 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-0 62.77 4 Rabun County 0-0 54.01
5 Peach County 0-0 59.71 5 Brooks County 0-0 52.71
6 Lovett 0-0 59.05 6 Pepperell 0-0 44.91
7 Pace Academy 0-0 52.62 7 Jefferson County 0-0 44.66
8 Liberty County 0-0 52.39 8 Vidalia 0-0 44.50
9 Crisp County 0-0 49.87 9 Screven County 0-0 42.71
10 Worth County 0-0 48.22 10 Hapeville Charter 0-0 42.27
11 Jackson 0-0 45.94 11 Dodge County 0-0 42.13
12 Westside (Macon) 0-0 45.66 12 Washington County 0-0 40.08
13 Pierce County 0-0 44.58 13 Model 0-0 39.54
14 Cook 0-0 41.30 14 Thomasville 0-0 39.38
15 Dawson County 0-0 39.76 15 Elbert County 0-0 38.49
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 0-0 56.41 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 0-0 66.80
2 Clinch County 0-0 49.94 2 Prince Avenue Christian 0-0 53.17
3 Emanuel County Institute 0-0 47.57 3 Wesleyan 0-0 50.14
4 Irwin County 0-0 46.42 4 Mount Paran Christian 0-0 48.82
5 Manchester 0-0 41.72 5 Tattnall Square 0-0 46.57
6 Commerce 0-0 41.23 6 Calvary Day 0-0 45.18
7 McIntosh County Academy 0-0 39.04 7 Landmark Christian 0-0 44.69
8 Mount Zion (Carroll) 0-0 37.63 8 Fellowship Christian 0-0 43.14
9 Turner County 0-0 37.33 9 Darlington 0-0 42.24
10 Lincoln County 0-0 35.21 10 Stratford Academy 0-0 40.89
11 Dooly County 0-0 34.09 11 Aquinas 0-0 39.80
12 Charlton County 0-0 32.81 12 Savannah Christian 0-0 37.15
13 Bowdon 0-0 32.63 13 Pinecrest Academy 0-0 36.21
14 Marion County 0-0 31.01 14 Mount Pisgah Christian 0-0 34.62
15 Trion 0-0 30.78 15 Athens Academy 0-0 33.81

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 98.96 0.00 141
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 94.64 0.00 78
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 91.15 0.00 236
4 [4] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 90.63 0.00 318
5 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 0-0 85.77 0.00 50
6 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 85.71 0.00 230
7 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 82.92 0.00 382
8 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 0-0 82.76 0.00 38
9 [2] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 79.82 0.00 376
10 [6] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 79.02 0.00 217
11 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 0-0 76.84 0.00 24
12 [7] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 76.79 0.00 261
13 [3] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 76.57 0.00 276
14 [8] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 76.21 0.00 11
15 [4] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 73.91 0.00 229
16 [9] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 73.78 0.00 264
17 [5] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 72.97 0.00 207
18 [10] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 72.95 0.00 290
19 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 0-0 72.52 0.00 353
20 [2] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 0-0 71.99 0.00 417
21 [6] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 70.91 0.00 169
22 [11] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 70.73 0.00 400
23 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 0-0 70.39 0.00 317
24 [7] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 70.24 0.00 137
25 [8] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 70.11 0.00 92
26 [4] Kell 7 – AAAAA 0-0 69.51 0.00 189
27 [9] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 69.33 0.00 4
28 [10] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 69.24 0.00 76
29 [5] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 68.94 0.00 389
30 [12] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 68.87 0.00 286
31 [13] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 68.82 0.00 267
32 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 0-0 68.75 0.00 142
33 [14] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 68.00 0.00 120
34 [15] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 67.26 0.00 368
35 [11] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 67.21 0.00 157
36 [16] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 67.16 0.00 35
37 [3] Thomson 3 – AAAA 0-0 67.16 0.00 367
38 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 0-0 66.80 0.00 109
39 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 0-0 66.49 0.00 321
40 [6] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 0-0 66.48 0.00 49
41 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 0-0 66.11 0.00 126
42 [12] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 65.90 0.00 351
43 [17] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 65.87 0.00 388
44 [13] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 65.55 0.00 274
45 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 0-0 65.12 0.00 54
46 [18] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 65.05 0.00 166
47 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 0-0 64.76 0.00 42
48 [14] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 64.72 0.00 171
49 [19] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 64.33 0.00 47
50 [20] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 64.19 0.00 337
51 [5] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 0-0 64.10 0.00 28
52 [21] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.76 0.00 260
53 [22] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.66 0.00 336
54 [15] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 63.58 0.00 3
55 [23] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.51 0.00 68
56 [6] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 0-0 63.48 0.00 177
57 [24] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.38 0.00 271
58 [25] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.14 0.00 111
59 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-0 62.77 0.00 401
60 [16] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 62.77 0.00 90
61 [26] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 62.29 0.00 206
62 [27] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 61.96 0.00 416
63 [28] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 61.59 0.00 397
64 [7] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 0-0 61.36 0.00 227
65 [8] Marist 7 – AAAA 0-0 60.89 0.00 226
66 [7] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 0-0 60.73 0.00 185
67 [17] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 60.42 0.00 215
68 [29] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 60.18 0.00 239
69 [5] Peach County 4 – AAA 0-0 59.71 0.00 289
70 [30] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 59.16 0.00 201
71 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 0-0 59.05 0.00 216
72 [18] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 58.81 0.00 85
73 [8] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 0-0 58.25 0.00 146
74 [9] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 0-0 58.13 0.00 415
75 [31] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.99 0.00 254
76 [32] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.69 0.00 61
77 [10] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-0 57.23 0.00 19
78 [19] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 56.96 0.00 204
79 [1] Macon County 4 – A 0-0 56.41 0.00 221
80 [9] Cairo 1 – AAAA 0-0 56.17 0.00 41
81 [33] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 56.03 0.00 77
82 [3] Callaway 5 – AA 0-0 56.00 0.00 44
83 [11] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 0-0 55.83 0.00 348
84 [12] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 0-0 55.71 0.00 365
85 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 55.45 0.00 405
86 [20] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 54.61 0.00 5
87 [21] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 54.50 0.00 131
88 [10] Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-0 54.07 0.00 343
89 [22] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 54.05 0.00 117
90 [4] Rabun County 8 – AA 0-0 54.01 0.00 304
91 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 0-0 54.01 0.00 39
92 [35] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 53.58 0.00 259
93 [23] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 53.43 0.00 86
94 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 0-0 53.17 0.00 301
95 [36] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 52.78 0.00 224
96 [37] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 52.77 0.00 330
97 [13] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-0 52.73 0.00 115
98 [5] Brooks County 1 – AA 0-0 52.71 0.00 33
99 [24] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 52.65 0.00 100
100 [7] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-0 52.62 0.00 284
101 [14] Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-0 52.58 0.00 140
102 [12] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-0 52.41 0.00 52
103 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 0-0 52.39 0.00 208
104 [15] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 0-0 52.36 0.00 390
105 [25] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 52.20 0.00 57
106 [13] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-0 52.07 0.00 347
107 [16] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-0 50.50 0.00 213
108 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 0-0 50.22 0.00 51
109 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 0-0 50.14 0.00 396
110 [26] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 49.99 0.00 328
111 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 0-0 49.94 0.00 74
112 [9] Crisp County 1 – AAA 0-0 49.87 0.00 87
113 [18] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 0-0 49.45 0.00 107
114 [14] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 0-0 49.25 0.00 399
115 [19] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-0 49.15 0.00 212
116 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 0-0 48.82 0.00 249
117 [27] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.78 0.00 46
118 [28] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.49 0.00 102
119 [29] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.26 0.00 36
120 [10] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-0 48.22 0.00 418
121 [30] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 47.89 0.00 181
122 [20] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 0-0 47.72 0.00 409
123 [31] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 47.64 0.00 338
124 [3] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 0-0 47.57 0.00 119
125 [15] Eastside 4 – AAAA 0-0 47.26 0.00 116
126 [16] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 0-0 46.94 0.00 381
127 [32] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 46.78 0.00 186
128 [5] Tattnall Square 7 – A 0-0 46.57 0.00 359
129 [33] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 46.57 0.00 345
130 [17] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 0-0 46.57 0.00 350
131 [4] Irwin County 2 – A 0-0 46.42 0.00 172
132 [18] Troup 5 – AAAA 0-0 46.35 0.00 375
133 [11] Jackson 4 – AAA 0-0 45.94 0.00 174
134 [21] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 0-0 45.67 0.00 71
135 [12] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-0 45.66 0.00 404
136 [22] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 0-0 45.59 0.00 383
137 [23] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 0-0 45.48 0.00 288
138 [24] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 0-0 45.33 0.00 10
139 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 0-0 45.18 0.00 45
140 [6] Pepperell 7 – AA 0-0 44.91 0.00 293
141 [7] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-0 44.69 0.00 202
142 [7] Jefferson County 4 – AA 0-0 44.66 0.00 178
143 [13] Pierce County 2 – AAA 0-0 44.58 0.00 296
144 [19] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 0-0 44.51 0.00 279
145 [8] Vidalia 2 – AA 0-0 44.50 0.00 384
146 [25] Ola 4 – AAAAA 0-0 44.07 0.00 281
147 [20] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 0-0 43.54 0.00 278
148 [26] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-0 43.39 0.00 108
149 [8] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 0-0 43.14 0.00 124
150 [27] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 0-0 43.06 0.00 314
151 [38] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 42.94 0.00 266
152 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 0-0 42.71 0.00 326
153 [21] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 0-0 42.51 0.00 309
154 [28] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 0-0 42.47 0.00 342
155 [10] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 0-0 42.27 0.00 152
156 [9] Darlington 6 – A 0-0 42.24 0.00 93
157 [34] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 42.21 0.00 308
158 [22] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-0 42.16 0.00 195
159 [11] Dodge County 3 – AA 0-0 42.13 0.00 97
160 [29] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 0-0 42.05 0.00 385
161 [30] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 0-0 41.82 0.00 167
162 [5] Manchester 4 – A 0-0 41.72 0.00 223
163 [14] Cook 1 – AAA 0-0 41.30 0.00 82
164 [6] Commerce 8 – A 0-0 41.23 0.00 81
165 [23] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 0-0 41.13 0.00 63
166 [24] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 0-0 40.98 0.00 56
167 [39] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 40.95 0.00 291
168 [10] Stratford Academy 7 – A 0-0 40.89 0.00 355
169 [31] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-0 40.72 0.00 53
170 [32] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 40.67 0.00 395
171 [12] Washington County 3 – AA 0-0 40.08 0.00 393
172 [35] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.91 0.00 412
173 [11] Aquinas 7 – A 0-0 39.80 0.00 9
174 [15] Dawson County 7 – AAA 0-0 39.76 0.00 94
175 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 39.75 0.00 191
176 [36] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.70 0.00 255
177 [13] Model 7 – AA 0-0 39.54 0.00 241
178 [14] Thomasville 1 – AA 0-0 39.38 0.00 366
179 [25] West Hall 7 – AAAA 0-0 39.36 0.00 398
180 [26] Westover 1 – AAAA 0-0 39.05 0.00 402
181 [7] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 0-0 39.04 0.00 232
182 [27] Pickens 6 – AAAA 0-0 39.03 0.00 295
183 [15] Elbert County 8 – AA 0-0 38.49 0.00 118
184 [16] Jenkins 3 – AAA 0-0 38.28 0.00 179
185 [37] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 38.13 0.00 65
186 [38] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 37.95 0.00 121
187 [8] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 0-0 37.63 0.00 252
188 [33] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 0-0 37.59 0.00 312
189 [16] Heard County 5 – AA 0-0 37.57 0.00 160
190 [34] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-0 37.52 0.00 123
191 [35] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 0-0 37.41 0.00 156
192 [9] Turner County 2 – A 0-0 37.33 0.00 377
193 [39] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 37.19 0.00 277
194 [17] Lamar County 5 – AA 0-0 37.16 0.00 200
195 [17] Monroe 1 – AAA 0-0 37.15 0.00 242
196 [12] Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-0 37.15 0.00 323
197 [28] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 0-0 37.06 0.00 6
198 [29] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-0 36.89 0.00 275
199 [40] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 36.79 0.00 164
200 [36] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 0-0 36.77 0.00 127
201 [30] Luella 4 – AAAA 0-0 36.39 0.00 218
202 [41] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 36.34 0.00 258
203 [18] Chattooga 7 – AA 0-0 36.33 0.00 67
204 [13] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-0 36.21 0.00 298
205 [18] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-0 36.03 0.00 8
206 [19] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 0-0 35.88 0.00 332
207 [42] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 35.80 0.00 197
208 [19] Dublin 3 – AA 0-0 35.65 0.00 104
209 [20] Spencer 5 – AA 0-0 35.58 0.00 344
210 [20] Adairsville 6 – AAA 0-0 35.57 0.00 1
211 [21] Rockmart 7 – AA 0-0 35.54 0.00 316
212 [21] North Hall 7 – AAA 0-0 35.44 0.00 268
213 [10] Lincoln County 7 – A 0-0 35.21 0.00 209
214 [37] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-0 34.95 0.00 211
215 [43] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 34.91 0.00 299
216 [14] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 0-0 34.62 0.00 250
217 [22] Morgan County 8 – AAA 0-0 34.22 0.00 246
218 [22] Laney 4 – AA 0-0 34.17 0.00 203
219 [41] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 34.16 0.00 129
220 [11] Dooly County 4 – A 0-0 34.09 0.00 98
221 [15] Athens Academy 8 – A 0-0 33.81 0.00 13
222 [38] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-0 33.64 0.00 335
223 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 33.52 0.00 315
224 [44] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 33.50 0.00 220
225 [31] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 0-0 33.35 0.00 165
226 [45] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 33.02 0.00 148
227 [32] Perry 2 – AAAA 0-0 32.94 0.00 294
228 [12] Charlton County 2 – A 0-0 32.81 0.00 64
229 [46] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 32.74 0.00 334
230 [33] Salem 4 – AAAA 0-0 32.71 0.00 320
231 [13] Bowdon 6 – A 0-0 32.63 0.00 29
232 [23] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-0 32.59 0.00 59
233 [24] Union County 7 – AAA 0-0 32.18 0.00 379
234 [25] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-0 32.18 0.00 31
235 [34] Columbus 1 – AAAA 0-0 31.96 0.00 80
236 [39] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 0-0 31.52 0.00 231
237 [47] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 31.06 0.00 149
238 [14] Marion County 4 – A 0-0 31.01 0.00 225
239 [16] First Presbyterian 7 – A 0-0 30.98 0.00 125
240 [26] Bremen 6 – AAA 0-0 30.98 0.00 32
241 [35] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-0 30.92 0.00 58
242 [15] Trion 6 – A 0-0 30.78 0.00 374
243 [23] Douglass 6 – AA 0-0 30.62 0.00 101
244 [16] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-0 29.86 0.00 394
245 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-0 29.69 0.00 339
246 [40] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 0-0 29.68 0.00 238
247 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 0-0 29.60 0.00 14
248 [24] Early County 1 – AA 0-0 29.58 0.00 110
249 [41] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 0-0 29.56 0.00 22
250 [48] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 29.55 0.00 30
251 [43] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 29.54 0.00 196
252 [28] Ringgold 6 – AAA 0-0 29.45 0.00 310
253 [17] Taylor County 4 – A 0-0 29.24 0.00 360
254 [36] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 0-0 28.86 0.00 20
255 [18] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-0 28.74 0.00 378
256 [19] Greene County 7 – A 0-0 28.70 0.00 144
257 [49] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 28.65 0.00 311
258 [25] Southwest 3 – AA 0-0 28.56 0.00 341
259 [42] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-0 28.45 0.00 380
260 [37] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 0-0 28.34 0.00 154
261 [20] Telfair County 2 – A 0-0 28.28 0.00 361
262 [26] Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-0 28.27 0.00 357
263 [29] Pike County 4 – AAA 0-0 28.07 0.00 297
264 [21] Pelham 1 – A 0-0 27.92 0.00 292
265 [50] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 27.86 0.00 253
266 [43] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 0-0 27.76 0.00 55
267 [38] Shaw 1 – AAAA 0-0 27.73 0.00 329
268 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 0-0 27.60 0.00 228
269 [45] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-0 27.53 0.00 387
270 [30] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 0-0 27.41 0.00 358
271 [18] George Walton Academy 8 – A 0-0 27.29 0.00 132
272 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 0-0 27.24 0.00 168
273 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 0-0 27.01 0.00 16
274 [39] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 0-0 26.66 0.00 263
275 [40] Howard 2 – AAAA 0-0 26.48 0.00 170
276 [41] Madison County 8 – AAAA 0-0 26.10 0.00 222
277 [31] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-0 25.87 0.00 158
278 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 0-0 25.83 0.00 306
279 [46] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 25.64 0.00 272
280 [51] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 25.62 0.00 373
281 [47] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 0-0 25.47 0.00 79
282 [48] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-0 25.38 0.00 349
283 [28] Washington 6 – AA 0-0 25.05 0.00 392
284 [33] Savannah 3 – AAA 0-0 25.05 0.00 322
285 [42] White County 7 – AAAA 0-0 24.48 0.00 407
286 [22] Mitchell County 1 – A 0-0 24.21 0.00 240
287 [34] North Murray 6 – AAA 0-0 24.21 0.00 269
288 [43] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-0 24.19 0.00 270
289 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 24.14 0.00 96
290 [29] Toombs County 2 – AA 0-0 24.08 0.00 369
291 [35] East Hall 7 – AAA 0-0 23.85 0.00 112
292 [49] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 0-0 23.76 0.00 95
293 [30] Berrien 1 – AA 0-0 23.51 0.00 26
294 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 23.31 0.00 48
295 [52] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 23.23 0.00 262
296 [36] Jackson County 8 – AAA 0-0 22.21 0.00 175
297 [53] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 22.16 0.00 143
298 [44] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 0-0 22.01 0.00 103
299 [37] Towers 5 – AAA 0-0 21.93 0.00 370
300 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 0-0 21.70 0.00 130
301 [31] Bacon County 2 – AA 0-0 21.44 0.00 17
302 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 21.12 0.00 105
303 [54] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 21.11 0.00 106
304 [39] Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-0 20.88 0.00 99
305 [50] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-0 20.81 0.00 414
306 [32] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-0 20.67 0.00 37
307 [40] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-0 20.55 0.00 219
308 [23] Miller County 1 – A 0-0 20.51 0.00 237
309 [20] Brookstone 4 – A 0-0 20.40 0.00 34
310 [33] Banks County 8 – AA 0-0 19.95 0.00 21
311 [24] Johnson County 3 – A 0-0 19.90 0.00 184
312 [34] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 0-0 19.71 0.00 193
313 [45] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 0-0 19.59 0.00 69
314 [35] Therrell 6 – AA 0-0 19.59 0.00 364
315 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 0-0 19.56 0.00 340
316 [55] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 18.99 0.00 7
317 [21] Walker 6 – A 0-0 18.95 0.00 386
318 [36] Coosa 7 – AA 0-0 18.93 0.00 83
319 [37] Metter 2 – AA 0-0 18.55 0.00 235
320 [38] Northeast 3 – AA 0-0 18.49 0.00 273
321 [22] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 0-0 18.43 0.00 283
322 [25] Terrell County 1 – A 0-0 18.12 0.00 363
323 [26] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-0 18.05 0.00 411
324 [27] Seminole County 1 – A 0-0 17.66 0.00 327
325 [41] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-0 17.65 0.00 319
326 [42] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 0-0 17.61 0.00 243
327 [23] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 0-0 17.08 0.00 324
328 [47] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 0-0 17.06 0.00 88
329 [56] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 16.94 0.00 2
330 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 0-0 16.91 0.00 307
331 [43] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-0 16.85 0.00 190
332 [51] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 16.57 0.00 210
333 [28] Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-0 16.38 0.00 159
334 [29] Gordon Lee 6 – A 0-0 16.28 0.00 139
335 [30] Atkinson County 2 – A 0-0 16.05 0.00 15
336 [49] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-0 15.86 0.00 162
337 [24] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 0-0 15.72 0.00 161
338 [31] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 0-0 15.68 0.00 305
339 [39] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 0-0 15.13 0.00 176
340 [44] Long County 2 – AAA 0-0 15.02 0.00 214
341 [52] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 0-0 14.99 0.00 257
342 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-0 14.83 0.00 282
343 [53] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 0-0 14.78 0.00 62
344 [40] Dade County 7 – AA 0-0 14.64 0.00 91
345 [41] South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-0 14.53 0.00 333
346 [32] Treutlen 3 – A 0-0 14.14 0.00 372
347 [54] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 0-0 13.78 0.00 247
348 [45] Fannin County 7 – AAA 0-0 13.14 0.00 122
349 [42] Monticello 8 – AA 0-0 13.08 0.00 245
350 [33] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-0 13.04 0.00 151
351 [46] Murray County 6 – AAA 0-0 12.59 0.00 256
352 [25] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 0-0 12.32 0.00 251
353 [34] Crawford County 4 – A 0-0 11.95 0.00 84
354 [50] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-0 11.91 0.00 134
355 [55] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 0-0 11.76 0.00 150
356 [43] Bleckley County 3 – AA 0-0 11.60 0.00 27
357 [26] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-0 11.31 0.00 70
358 [47] McNair 5 – AAA 0-0 11.01 0.00 233
359 [44] Temple 5 – AA 0-0 10.73 0.00 362
360 [35] Warren County 7 – A 0-0 10.63 0.00 391
361 [45] Jordan 5 – AA 0-0 10.58 0.00 187
362 [36] Jenkins County 3 – A 0-0 10.16 0.00 180
363 [46] Putnam County 8 – AA 0-0 8.61 0.00 303
364 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-0 8.40 0.00 114
365 [48] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-0 8.24 0.00 153
366 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 7.79 0.00 234
367 [37] Wheeler County 3 – A 0-0 7.79 0.00 406
368 [48] Josey 4 – AA 0-0 7.67 0.00 188
369 [49] East Jackson 8 – AAA 0-0 7.62 0.00 113
370 [38] Wilcox County 2 – A 0-0 7.59 0.00 410
371 [51] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 0-0 7.44 0.00 194
372 [50] Beach 3 – AAA 0-0 7.25 0.00 23
373 [27] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 0-0 7.20 0.00 192
374 [49] Harlem 4 – AA 0-0 6.88 0.00 155
375 [39] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-0 6.63 0.00 66
376 [28] Mount de Sales 7 – A 0-0 6.61 0.00 248
377 [40] Montgomery County 3 – A 0-0 5.83 0.00 244
378 [29] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-0 5.61 0.00 408
379 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 0-0 5.36 0.00 198
380 [41] Schley County 4 – A 0-0 5.33 0.00 325
381 [50] Butler 4 – AA 0-0 4.73 0.00 40
382 [42] Portal 3 – A 0-0 4.21 0.00 300
383 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-0 3.68 0.00 128
384 [31] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 0-0 3.39 0.00 356
385 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-0 3.12 0.00 182
386 [32] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-0 2.79 0.00 313
387 [51] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 0-0 2.54 0.00 413
388 [52] Islands 3 – AAA 0-0 2.33 0.00 173
389 [51] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 0-0 2.02 0.00 136
390 [43] Towns County 8 – A 0-0 1.51 0.00 371
391 [44] Lanier County 2 – A 0-0 1.44 0.00 205
392 [33] St. Francis 6 – A 0-0 -0.13 0.00 346
393 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 0-0 -0.25 0.00 133
394 [52] Armuchee 7 – AA 0-0 -0.73 0.00 12
395 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 -1.16 0.00 25
396 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 0-0 -1.41 0.00 354
397 [53] Social Circle 8 – AA 0-0 -1.80 0.00 331
398 [34] Pacelli 4 – A 0-0 -2.43 0.00 285
399 [45] Greenville 4 – A 0-0 -2.86 0.00 145
400 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 0-0 -3.80 0.00 147
401 [46] Claxton 3 – A 0-0 -4.09 0.00 73
402 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-0 -5.32 0.00 403
403 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 0-0 -6.05 0.00 43
404 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-0 -6.70 0.00 183
405 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-0 -9.69 0.00 60
406 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-0 -10.17 0.00 265
407 [55] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-0 -10.67 0.00 280
408 [36] Providence Christian 8 – A 0-0 -11.16 0.00 302
409 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-0 -12.58 0.00 163
410 [56] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-0 -12.97 0.00 199
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 0-0 -18.28 0.00 18
412 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-0 -18.53 0.00 72
413 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-0 -19.09 0.00 75
414 [56] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-0 -20.86 0.00 138
415 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 0-0 -22.61 0.00 352
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 0-0 -22.83 0.00 135
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-0 -37.42 0.00 89
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-0 -41.52 0.00 287
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 88.17 75.63
2 8 – AAAAAAA 87.28 64.35
3 1 – AAAAAA 83.79 74.46
4 4 – AAAAAAA 82.52 67.66
5 6 – AAAAAAA 81.38 58.39
6 3 – AAAAAAA 79.72 63.64
7 5 – AAAA 73.54 47.82
8 7 – AAAAAAA 72.89 49.53
9 5 – AAAAAA 72.82 55.52
10 4 – AAAAAA 70.75 49.43
11 6 – AAAAAA 70.31 52.75
12 7 – AAAAA 70.19 50.05
13 8 – AAAAA 67.51 37.74
14 2 – AAAAAAA 67.39 52.45
15 4 – AAAAA 67.02 47.61
16 5 – AAAAAAA 66.75 54.43
17 5 – AAA 63.90 38.53
18 2 – AAAAAA 63.23 48.56
19 8 – AAAAAA 60.66 44.87
20 7 – AAAA 60.24 41.22
21 2 – AA 59.87 27.34
22 1 – AAAAA 59.78 49.85
23 2 – AAAA 59.26 45.61
24 4 – AAAA 58.81 33.93
25 1 – AA 58.65 41.47
26 8 – AAAA 58.53 43.12
27 3 – AAAA 57.23 27.30
28 3 – AAAAA 57.02 40.97
29 2 – AAAAA 56.94 34.60
30 5 – A 56.78 30.59
31 7 – AAAAAA 56.45 40.15
32 7 – AAA 55.30 31.44
33 1 – AAAA 54.08 38.22
34 4 – AAA 53.35 34.81
35 1 – AAA 51.02 40.14
36 6 – AAAAA 50.88 33.07
37 6 – AAA 50.57 22.38
6-South – AAA 53.83 34.44
6-North – AAA 25.69 8.23
38 6 – A 48.90 24.68
6-Div B – A 45.49 24.56
6-Div A – A 41.13 24.80
39 2 – AAA 48.88 34.71
40 5 – AA 48.83 31.79
41 2 – A 47.43 28.15
42 4 – A 46.60 18.83
4-Div B – A 45.47 24.06
4-Div A – A 34.38 11.97
43 7 – A 46.31 27.78
7-Div A – A 43.78 29.09
7-Div B – A 38.11 26.59
44 3 – A 45.31 19.00
3-Div A – A 42.45 24.14
3-Div B – A 35.60 15.47
45 8 – A 45.25 19.77
46 6 – AAAA 44.78 28.84
47 5 – AAAAA 43.64 32.34
48 7 – AA 43.52 23.97
49 8 – AA 42.95 15.40
50 3 – AA 42.31 26.68
51 3 – AAAAAA 42.07 30.73
52 4 – AA 41.06 14.91
53 6 – AA 38.92 25.24
54 8 – AAA 33.33 21.61
55 3 – AAA 32.48 10.55
56 1 – A 28.72 10.58

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
91.93 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell 5.36 63.1%
87.70 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 5.44 63.3%
87.56 09/01 Grayson McEachern 14.60 81.2%
84.85 09/22 Colquitt County Valdosta 13.08 78.7%
82.24 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes 14.26 80.6%
81.53 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker 16.17 83.4%
80.81 08/18 Valdosta Lowndes 2.54 56.3%
79.00 08/19 Colquitt County Norcross 17.84 85.6%
78.76 10/06 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 6.34 65.3%
78.66 10/13 Grayson Archer 21.40 89.5%
77.95 09/22 Roswell Archer 15.78 82.9%
77.90 09/08 Mill Creek Archer 16.30 83.6%
77.09 10/06 McEachern North Cobb 10.58 74.2%
76.49 09/15 Archer Norcross 0.77 51.9%
75.94 10/13 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 16.85 84.4%

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