Maxwell Semifinal Summary: Grayson presses in on historic elite

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– By coupling a roster full of Division I talent with one of the most successful coaches in Georgia high school football history, Grayson has produced a nearly perfect machine.  Except for the season opener against 11-0 IMG Academy, arguably the most talented and professionally managed high school football team in the country, the Rams have bulldozed virtually every opponent they’ve played, including Alabama’s 6A and 7A champions, 13-2 Ramsey and 12-2 Hoover respectively, and one of Florida’s 8A semifinalists, 9-4 Deerfield Beach by a combined score of 113 to 34.

If the season were to end today, Grayson would have the 11th highest rating of all GHSA teams since 1948:

Rank Season Team Class Record Rating
1 1971 Valdosta AAA 13-0 114.58
2 1984 Valdosta AAAA 15-0 113.12
3 1980 Lowndes AAAA 14-1 110.55
4 1986 Valdosta AAAA 15-0 110.49
5 1976 Warner Robins AAA 13-0 110.26
6 1968 Valdosta AAA 13-0 109.63
7 2004 Lowndes AAAAA 15-0 107.63
8 1980 Valdosta AAAA 11-1 107.40
9 1972 Lakeside (Atlanta) AAA 14-0 106.97
10 1962 Valdosta AAA 12-0 106.94
11 1997 Thomas County Central AAA 15-0 106.20
12 1988 Thomasville AAA 15-0 105.88
13 2003 Camden County AAAAA 15-0 105.63
14 1994 Washington County AA 15-0 105.46
15 2015 Colquitt County AAAAAA 15-0 104.95

 

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,065 of 2,266 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.28%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.23 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.48

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 13-1 106.85 1 Valdosta 13-1 84.64
2 Roswell 14-0 91.79 2 Tucker 13-1 84.41
3 Mill Creek 13-1 91.21 3 Northside (Warner Robins) 11-3 77.14
4 Colquitt County 8-5 85.31 4 Mays 11-2 75.23
5 McEachern 11-2 84.14 5 Harrison 10-2 73.88
6 Lowndes 10-3 77.20 6 Dalton 13-1 72.31
7 North Cobb 10-3 75.65 7 Lee County 8-3 71.86
8 Norcross 11-1 75.04 8 Houston County 7-3 70.24
9 Westlake 10-4 69.08 9 Glynn Academy 11-2 68.88
10 Parkview 8-4 67.65 10 Coffee 7-6 66.11
11 Cherokee 7-5 67.47 11 Alexander 10-2 66.06
12 Brookwood 8-4 66.61 12 Northgate 9-3 63.81
13 Woodstock 7-5 65.26 13 Hughes 8-4 62.44
14 Tift County 6-5 65.24 14 Stephenson 8-5 60.47
15 North Paulding 7-4 65.00 15 Allatoona 6-6 59.39
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 13-1 79.42 1 Cartersville 14-0 83.61
2 Rome 12-2 76.47 2 Thomson 14-0 76.14
3 Stockbridge 13-1 71.38 3 Woodward Academy 11-2 67.61
4 Carrollton 11-2 69.98 4 Jefferson 12-2 61.34
5 Kell 11-3 69.87 5 Mary Persons 11-3 60.63
6 Woodland (Stockbridge) 10-3 62.12 6 Sandy Creek 8-4 58.92
7 Ware County 8-4 61.46 7 Cairo 11-2 56.12
8 Griffin 11-2 57.11 8 Blessed Trinity 10-3 55.45
9 Jones County 8-4 56.03 9 Spalding 8-5 55.23
10 Grady 10-2 55.52 10 Marist 7-4 51.19
11 Thomas County Central 8-4 54.83 11 Burke County 9-3 50.22
12 Bainbridge 5-6 51.69 12 Troup 8-3 47.49
13 Loganville 9-3 50.36 13 Ridgeland 9-2 47.34
14 Starr’s Mill 7-5 49.70 14 Eastside 7-3-1 46.33
15 Locust Grove 6-4 48.76 15 Cedartown 5-5 45.80
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 13-1 70.01 1 Benedictine 14-0 77.23
2 Cedar Grove 12-2 65.36 2 Fitzgerald 13-1 67.63
3 Peach County 12-2 61.84 3 Rabun County 11-1 57.47
4 Westminster (Atlanta) 10-3 60.37 4 Callaway 13-1 56.92
5 Lovett 8-4 55.29 5 Pepperell 10-2 52.79
6 Crisp County 13-1 55.15 6 Hapeville Charter 10-4 45.57
7 Calhoun 10-3 54.56 7 Rockmart 9-3 44.20
8 Liberty County 11-2 53.23 8 Brooks County 8-4 43.90
9 Pace Academy 6-5 50.44 9 Screven County 11-2 42.25
10 Jackson 8-4 45.58 10 Chattooga 8-5 39.86
11 Dawson County 7-3 43.58 11 Vidalia 9-3 38.99
12 Pierce County 9-4 41.88 12 Model 7-4 38.21
13 Worth County 7-5 40.80 13 Jefferson County 10-2 38.09
14 Jenkins 10-2 37.70 14 Thomasville 5-5 37.94
15 Westside (Macon) 6-5 37.48 15 Washington County 8-4 36.00
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 11-2 61.99 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 13-0 67.01
2 Emanuel County Institute 11-1 50.78 2 Fellowship Christian 13-0 60.11
3 Clinch County 11-2 50.53 3 Prince Avenue Christian 12-1 53.04
4 Manchester 10-2 47.97 4 Tattnall Square 12-1 52.37
5 McIntosh County Academy 10-2 46.98 5 Wesleyan 9-3 49.44
6 Irwin County 8-5 43.20 6 Mount Paran Christian 10-2 46.23
7 Commerce 9-3 40.81 7 Landmark Christian 10-2 45.75
8 Turner County 8-4 38.76 8 Calvary Day 10-1 45.31
9 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-2 38.57 9 Stratford Academy 8-4 40.12
10 Twiggs County 8-4 37.74 10 Darlington 8-4 37.76
11 Taylor County 10-2 36.55 11 Pinecrest Academy 8-4 35.08
12 Greene County 9-4 32.76 12 Athens Academy 9-3 34.14
13 Lincoln County 7-4-1 32.35 13 Savannah Christian 7-4 31.96
14 Dooly County 6-5 32.10 14 George Walton Academy 8-4 30.95
15 Telfair County 5-4 29.64 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-5 30.21

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 13-1 106.85 65.04 5
2 [2] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 14-0 91.79 63.76 8
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 13-1 91.21 60.31 21
4 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-5 85.31 76.33 1
5 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 13-1 84.64 64.91 6
6 [2] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 13-1 84.41 49.97 64
7 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 11-2 84.14 62.02 16
8 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 14-0 83.61 49.14 68
9 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 13-1 79.42 42.12 112
10 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 14-0 77.23 24.61 292
11 [6] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 10-3 77.20 62.58 14
12 [3] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 11-3 77.14 59.15 22
13 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 12-2 76.47 45.55 90
14 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 14-0 76.14 34.16 188
15 [7] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 10-3 75.65 62.49 15
16 [4] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-2 75.23 56.04 31
17 [8] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 11-1 75.04 51.30 56
18 [5] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 10-2 73.88 52.71 47
19 [6] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 13-1 72.31 48.75 70
20 [7] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-3 71.86 58.83 24
21 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 13-1 71.38 47.88 77
22 [8] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 70.24 60.99 19
23 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 13-1 70.01 39.11 135
24 [4] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 11-2 69.98 44.13 101
25 [5] Kell 7 – AAAAA 11-3 69.87 51.59 54
26 [9] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 10-4 69.08 58.04 28
27 [9] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 11-2 68.88 46.74 83
28 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 67.65 55.90 33
29 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 13-1 67.63 38.74 138
30 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-2 67.61 38.33 142
31 [11] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 67.47 62.98 11
32 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 13-0 67.01 28.77 248
33 [12] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 66.61 58.31 25
34 [10] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 7-6 66.11 63.17 10
35 [11] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 66.06 51.16 59
36 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 12-2 65.36 37.18 152
37 [13] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 65.26 61.52 18
38 [14] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-5 65.24 65.62 4
39 [15] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-4 65.00 57.05 30
40 [16] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 8-4 64.71 58.90 23
41 [17] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 4-7 63.83 70.68 2
42 [12] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 9-3 63.81 52.02 52
43 [18] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 6-6 63.45 60.46 20
44 [19] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 62.97 58.16 27
45 [20] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-5 62.50 62.78 13
46 [21] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 62.49 62.93 12
47 [13] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 8-4 62.44 52.58 49
48 [22] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-3 62.38 44.39 99
49 [23] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 8-3 62.14 47.35 78
50 [6] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 10-3 62.12 45.25 93
51 [24] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.12 54.31 39
52 [1] Macon County 4 – A 11-2 61.99 36.68 156
53 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 12-2 61.84 38.57 139
54 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 8-4 61.46 51.28 57
55 [4] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 12-2 61.34 38.87 137
56 [5] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 11-3 60.63 41.87 114
57 [14] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 8-5 60.47 50.22 62
58 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 10-3 60.37 40.62 125
59 [25] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 60.33 53.79 41
60 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 13-0 60.11 25.16 283
61 [26] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-4-1 59.49 57.94 29
62 [15] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-6 59.39 55.93 32
63 [27] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-6 59.28 61.91 17
64 [6] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 8-4 58.92 47.08 81
65 [28] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-6 58.78 63.24 9
66 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 7-5 57.64 53.53 43
67 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 11-1 57.47 18.58 353
68 [8] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 11-2 57.11 40.30 127
69 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 13-1 56.92 34.20 187
70 [7] Cairo 1 – AAAA 11-2 56.12 38.19 145
71 [9] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-4 56.03 46.50 84
72 [16] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 55.86 46.02 88
73 [10] Grady 6 – AAAAA 10-2 55.52 31.87 209
74 [8] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 10-3 55.45 39.02 136
75 [5] Lovett 5 – AAA 8-4 55.29 41.01 122
76 [17] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 7-5 55.26 49.55 67
77 [9] Spalding 2 – AAAA 8-5 55.23 48.39 73
78 [6] Crisp County 1 – AAA 13-1 55.15 34.72 184
79 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 54.89 58.22 26
80 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 8-4 54.83 48.34 74
81 [7] Calhoun 6 – AAA 10-3 54.56 29.55 240
82 [18] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 53.87 41.27 121
83 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 11-2 53.23 32.30 202
84 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 12-1 53.04 24.26 299
85 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 10-2 52.79 30.40 227
86 [4] Tattnall Square 7 – A 12-1 52.37 24.82 291
87 [19] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 52.18 40.68 124
88 [20] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.78 48.20 75
89 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 5-6 51.69 48.49 72
90 [21] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 51.37 47.31 79
91 [10] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-4 51.19 41.46 120
92 [22] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 5-5 51.04 49.90 65
93 [2] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 11-1 50.78 13.70 379
94 [3] Clinch County 2 – A 11-2 50.53 28.20 251
95 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 6-5 50.44 49.11 69
96 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 50.44 44.69 97
97 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 50.40 51.05 60
98 [13] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 9-3 50.36 33.98 190
99 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-3 50.22 26.86 265
100 [14] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-5 49.70 45.39 92
101 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 9-3 49.44 27.84 257
102 [24] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 49.07 40.56 126
103 [15] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-4 48.76 41.98 113
104 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-7 47.98 55.76 34
105 [4] Manchester 4 – A 10-2 47.97 17.36 363
106 [12] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-3 47.49 36.70 155
107 [25] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 47.44 52.14 51
108 [13] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-2 47.34 29.97 232
109 [5] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 10-2 46.98 25.88 276
110 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 6-5 46.91 45.17 94
111 [14] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-3-1 46.33 34.03 189
112 [6] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 10-2 46.23 26.46 273
113 [15] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-5 45.80 44.20 100
114 [17] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-8 45.79 55.22 36
115 [18] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 45.77 27.82 258
116 [7] Landmark Christian 5 – A 10-2 45.75 26.70 268
117 [26] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 6-5 45.59 41.86 115
118 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 8-4 45.58 31.70 212
119 [6] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 10-4 45.57 33.43 196
120 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 8-3 45.45 34.99 181
121 [8] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-1 45.31 17.66 361
122 [16] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-5 45.11 35.86 170
123 [17] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 7-5 44.98 38.36 141
124 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-6 44.95 51.85 53
125 [20] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-5 44.77 41.48 119
126 [27] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 4-7 44.55 53.51 44
127 [28] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 44.53 45.74 89
128 [34] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-7 44.52 52.94 46
129 [35] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-7 44.43 67.01 3
130 [29] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 44.29 39.88 130
131 [7] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 44.20 26.53 271
132 [36] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 44.13 63.96 7
133 [37] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-7 44.05 53.75 42
134 [18] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-5 44.04 40.84 123
135 [8] Brooks County 1 – AA 8-4 43.90 37.31 151
136 [30] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-5 43.71 38.47 140
137 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 8-4 43.58 31.62 214
138 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-3 43.58 30.37 228
139 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-5-1 43.23 44.50 98
140 [21] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 8-3 43.22 30.48 223
141 [6] Irwin County 2 – A 8-5 43.20 33.58 194
142 [21] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-3 42.95 28.94 244
143 [22] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-5 42.66 36.45 161
144 [23] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-6 42.43 44.99 95
145 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 42.41 46.21 87
146 [24] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 42.37 52.33 50
147 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-4 42.27 35.23 178
148 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 11-2 42.25 14.43 375
149 [12] Pierce County 2 – AAA 9-4 41.88 31.57 215
150 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 7-5 41.38 38.22 144
151 [25] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-5 41.08 38.04 147
152 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 40.87 37.60 149
153 [7] Commerce 8 – A 9-3 40.81 22.01 322
154 [13] Worth County 1 – AAA 7-5 40.80 36.39 163
155 [9] Stratford Academy 7 – A 8-4 40.12 28.81 247
156 [10] Chattooga 7 – AA 8-5 39.86 32.10 204
157 [32] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-8 39.61 54.99 37
158 [26] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-5 39.15 36.11 166
159 [27] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 39.13 52.67 48
160 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 39.06 55.53 35
161 [11] Vidalia 2 – AA 9-3 38.99 26.50 272
162 [8] Turner County 2 – A 8-4 38.76 29.57 238
163 [9] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-2 38.57 19.95 345
164 [28] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.50 42.87 105
165 [29] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.43 46.74 82
166 [12] Model 7 – AA 7-4 38.21 29.14 243
167 [13] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 38.09 17.56 362
168 [14] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-5 37.94 36.50 158
169 [24] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-4 37.80 22.95 315
170 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-4 37.76 26.65 269
171 [10] Twiggs County 7 – A 8-4 37.74 28.17 252
172 [14] Jenkins 3 – AAA 10-2 37.70 16.40 366
173 [33] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-5 37.59 33.72 193
174 [15] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-5 37.48 32.78 198
175 [25] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-6 37.06 42.50 109
176 [34] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 36.93 48.61 71
177 [30] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-6 36.85 42.37 110
178 [16] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 8-4 36.76 29.69 237
179 [11] Taylor County 4 – A 10-2 36.55 13.18 382
180 [26] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 36.09 51.17 58
181 [15] Washington County 3 – AA 8-4 36.00 28.36 249
182 [27] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-9 35.56 49.82 66
183 [35] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-5 35.46 35.88 169
184 [17] Savannah 3 – AAA 8-3 35.18 12.56 384
185 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 8-4 35.08 25.53 281
186 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-8 35.00 53.06 45
187 [16] Dublin 3 – AA 8-3 34.54 25.71 279
188 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-4 34.52 36.38 164
189 [17] Spencer 5 – AA 6-5 34.47 31.83 210
190 [31] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 5-6 34.44 35.71 173
191 [29] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 34.26 35.32 177
192 [36] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 34.25 38.13 146
193 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-5-1 34.17 36.16 165
194 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 9-3 34.14 20.32 338
195 [18] Dodge County 3 – AA 6-6 34.10 31.63 213
196 [37] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 33.83 24.92 288
197 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 6-5 33.80 32.35 201
198 [18] Cook 1 – AAA 5-6 33.54 36.56 157
199 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-5 33.41 31.98 207
200 [19] Brantley County 2 – AAA 6-4 33.20 29.78 234
201 [33] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-7 32.79 42.59 107
202 [12] Greene County 7 – A 9-4 32.76 23.61 307
203 [20] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-5 32.72 31.87 208
204 [38] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 32.62 41.83 116
205 [20] Douglass 6 – AA 8-4 32.57 20.73 330
206 [21] Bremen 6 – AAA 7-5 32.56 25.75 278
207 [39] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 32.40 42.96 104
208 [13] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-4-1 32.35 27.81 259
209 [14] Dooly County 4 – A 6-5 32.10 28.94 245
210 [13] Savannah Christian 3 – A 7-4 31.96 23.06 313
211 [34] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-5 31.57 29.55 239
212 [35] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-7 31.51 41.66 117
213 [22] Union County 7 – AAA 8-3 31.43 24.35 297
214 [40] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-8 31.37 53.96 40
215 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 5-5 31.36 30.70 221
216 [41] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 31.02 51.48 55
217 [14] George Walton Academy 8 – A 8-4 30.95 19.09 348
218 [41] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 30.89 30.34 229
219 [21] Heard County 5 – AA 7-4 30.84 23.52 308
220 [42] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 30.75 35.81 171
221 [32] Luella 4 – AAAA 5-6 30.40 35.09 180
222 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 6-5 30.21 26.81 266
223 [33] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 30.02 37.09 153
224 [36] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 29.91 30.32 230
225 [42] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-7 29.91 41.55 118
226 [43] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-6-1 29.86 40.07 129
227 [16] First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-5 29.83 25.05 285
228 [23] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-3 29.79 15.91 369
229 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 5-4 29.64 25.77 277
230 [37] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 3-8 29.42 43.05 103
231 [38] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 29.41 26.71 267
232 [22] Lamar County 5 – AA 6-5 29.24 30.46 225
233 [24] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-5 28.94 31.75 211
234 [25] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-5 28.93 28.09 254
235 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 7-4 28.93 18.52 354
236 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-6 28.39 42.14 111
237 [44] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-6 28.22 29.97 233
238 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 28.21 24.87 289
239 [23] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-3 27.75 20.32 339
240 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-7 27.65 39.66 134
241 [24] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-5 27.61 24.07 300
242 [16] Bowdon 6 – A 6-5 27.45 23.11 312
243 [27] North Murray 6 – AAA 8-4 27.23 15.15 371
244 [17] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-7 26.91 32.03 206
245 [18] Aquinas 7 – A 6-5 26.79 27.92 255
246 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-4 26.76 24.51 295
247 [28] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 5-6 26.41 27.40 261
248 [18] Mitchell County 1 – A 9-3 26.30 9.89 402
249 [45] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 26.29 42.50 108
250 [29] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-6 26.05 36.05 168
251 [39] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 4-7 25.98 33.48 195
252 [19] Trion 6 – A 6-5 25.60 19.63 346
253 [20] Miller County 1 – A 9-3 25.48 12.62 383
254 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-2 25.17 8.86 411
255 [40] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-6 25.16 32.07 205
256 [41] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-7 24.90 36.45 160
257 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 5-6 24.42 27.00 264
258 [46] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 23.90 50.02 63
259 [47] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-8 23.40 34.99 182
260 [48] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 23.38 39.71 133
261 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-6 23.31 28.16 253
262 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 23.13 39.86 131
263 [30] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-5 22.92 20.49 332
264 [25] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-7 22.57 31.08 218
265 [31] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 22.53 21.80 324
266 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 22.49 39.74 132
267 [26] Laney 4 – AA 5-6 22.36 20.69 331
268 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-6 21.75 27.91 256
269 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-5 21.50 23.96 301
270 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-9 21.38 36.77 154
271 [22] Charlton County 2 – A 3-6 21.36 28.31 250
272 [33] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-7 21.06 31.45 216
273 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-5 20.95 17.76 359
274 [43] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-7 20.90 31.04 219
275 [44] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 3-7-1 20.77 30.82 220
276 [50] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 20.76 15.75 370
277 [45] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-8-1 20.71 46.22 86
278 [38] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-7 20.61 30.47 224
279 [28] Therrell 6 – AA 4-6 20.57 24.94 287
280 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 20.33 33.80 191
281 [23] Terrell County 1 – A 7-4 20.15 13.22 381
282 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 19.69 47.10 80
283 [29] Berrien 1 – AA 4-6 19.64 29.73 235
284 [24] Marion County 4 – A 7-4 19.54 10.73 397
285 [30] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-4-1 19.36 13.70 378
286 [51] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.15 48.07 76
287 [35] Towers 5 – AAA 3-7 18.23 32.13 203
288 [21] Walker 6 – A 4-7 18.15 25.07 284
289 [52] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 18.12 35.11 179
290 [53] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-7-1 18.06 31.37 217
291 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-10 18.02 50.92 61
292 [46] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 17.89 44.10 102
293 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-9 17.78 40.08 128
294 [47] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 17.45 45.51 91
295 [36] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-6 17.21 23.43 309
296 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-5 17.21 18.24 356
297 [39] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-7 16.94 30.05 231
298 [40] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-9 16.84 38.24 143
299 [31] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 16.83 28.83 246
300 [32] Banks County 8 – AA 6-5 16.75 13.57 380
301 [25] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-4 16.63 10.15 400
302 [23] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-6 16.06 20.93 329
303 [37] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-4 15.69 9.31 410
304 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 4-7 15.68 20.48 333
305 [33] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 15.55 23.69 305
306 [41] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 15.54 35.79 172
307 [42] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 6-5 15.26 13.81 377
308 [43] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-10 15.15 42.80 106
309 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-7 14.78 22.66 319
310 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 3-7 14.77 30.63 222
311 [34] Coosa 7 – AA 4-6 14.69 24.28 298
312 [39] East Hall 7 – AAA 3-7 14.62 23.62 306
313 [27] Warren County 7 – A 4-6 14.48 20.36 336
314 [49] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-10 14.28 46.27 85
315 [44] White County 7 – AAAA 1-9 13.95 36.40 162
316 [35] Early County 1 – AA 1-8-1 13.85 34.79 183
317 [36] Northeast 3 – AA 2-8 13.76 26.63 270
318 [37] Temple 5 – AA 6-4 13.69 12.11 387
319 [28] Treutlen 3 – A 6-4 13.48 9.71 405
320 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-8 13.37 32.49 199
321 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-7 12.84 36.09 167
322 [45] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 4-6 12.67 20.33 337
323 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-6 12.21 23.71 304
324 [41] Long County 2 – AAA 1-6-2 11.81 27.47 260
325 [29] Crawford County 4 – A 5-4 11.67 11.00 394
326 [30] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-4 11.66 6.36 416
327 [39] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-7 11.58 25.70 280
328 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 4-7 11.17 21.75 325
329 [50] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-10 10.80 38.00 148
330 [31] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-5 10.79 11.15 391
331 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-6 10.78 19.20 347
332 [32] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 10.72 11.12 393
333 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-5 10.54 12.23 386
334 [33] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-8 10.13 23.93 302
335 [40] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-7 9.71 24.39 296
336 [34] Hawkinsville 4 – A 4-6 9.64 20.10 342
337 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 9.58 37.53 150
338 [35] Seminole County 1 – A 4-5-1 9.53 9.64 406
339 [36] Montgomery County 3 – A 4-6 9.33 14.76 374
340 [47] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-10 9.12 36.46 159
341 [42] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-10 8.94 35.41 176
342 [43] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-8 8.91 18.93 351
343 [44] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-8 8.85 20.38 335
344 [45] Islands 3 – AAA 4-7 7.97 18.38 355
345 [37] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-5 7.91 10.86 396
346 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-6 7.78 17.04 365
347 [52] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.32 27.07 263
348 [56] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 7.22 54.96 38
349 [46] East Jackson 8 – AAA 4-6 6.91 11.68 389
350 [41] Metter 2 – AA 2-7 6.86 23.04 314
351 [53] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 2-8 6.86 23.91 303
352 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 6.83 34.28 186
353 [42] Monticello 8 – AA 3-8 6.61 25.01 286
354 [38] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-7 6.47 16.29 367
355 [55] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-9 6.45 27.13 262
356 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 3-7 6.36 20.45 334
357 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 5.92 35.63 174
358 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 3-7 5.85 22.00 323
359 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-8 5.56 35.55 175
360 [48] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-6 5.15 11.29 390
361 [43] Albany 1 – AA 0-10 4.93 29.23 241
362 [39] Schley County 4 – A 4-6 4.39 9.73 404
363 [49] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-8-1 4.30 24.59 293
364 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 4.29 25.27 282
365 [44] Josey 4 – AA 4-6 4.18 9.74 403
366 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 3.85 18.74 352
367 [45] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-8 3.75 22.80 316
368 [27] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-8 3.42 22.51 320
369 [28] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 4-6 3.40 12.36 385
370 [29] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-7 3.39 22.66 318
371 [40] Towns County 8 – A 3-7 3.11 23.24 310
372 [46] Dade County 7 – AA 3-7 2.79 24.58 294
373 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-9 2.70 26.02 274
374 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 2.61 24.85 290
375 [48] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-7 2.08 16.06 368
376 [50] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-10 0.87 32.48 200
377 [41] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-9 0.57 26.02 275
378 [49] Harlem 4 – AA 3-7 0.30 10.69 398
379 [42] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 3-7 0.27 11.15 392
380 [50] Jordan 5 – AA 0-10 -0.30 33.36 197
381 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 -0.40 19.98 344
382 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 -0.66 21.01 328
383 [51] Butler 4 – AA 3-7 -0.76 10.29 399
384 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-8 -2.41 18.21 357
385 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -2.44 22.67 317
386 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 3-7 -2.68 21.49 326
387 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -3.03 -0.99 417
388 [44] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -3.23 23.16 311
389 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-9 -4.21 34.37 185
390 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -4.21 30.42 226
391 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -4.46 8.59 413
392 [53] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-9 -5.20 15.05 373
393 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -6.04 33.73 192
394 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -7.19 20.09 343
395 [33] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-9 -7.24 18.93 350
396 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-8 -7.48 17.28 364
397 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-8 -7.82 9.37 409
398 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -9.21 29.23 242
399 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-8 -10.28 10.12 401
400 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 2-8 -11.23 17.86 358
401 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-9 -15.81 18.99 349
402 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 -15.90 9.37 408
403 [46] Claxton 3 – A 0-9 -16.44 29.70 236
404 [47] Greenville 4 – A 1-9 -17.18 21.26 327
405 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -18.29 17.73 360
406 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-10 -19.10 14.13 376
407 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-9 -19.10 15.11 372
408 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -19.99 44.98 96
409 [49] Stewart County 1 – A 2-8 -20.97 8.84 412
410 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 1-9 -21.74 10.92 395
411 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-10 -22.92 6.59 415
412 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-10 -26.31 11.91 388
413 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-10 -27.49 22.08 321
414 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-10 -28.19 20.23 341
415 [51] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-9 -29.30 8.11 414
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-5 -29.95 -17.05 418
417 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -30.54 20.30 340
418 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -31.02 9.47 407
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-4 -51.17 -38.57 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -52.19 -27.86 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 89.06 73.89
2 1 – AAAAAAA 87.86 69.25
3 8 – AAAAAAA 85.43 59.04
4 4 – AAAAAAA 84.88 66.80
5 3 – AAAAAAA 81.85 61.64
6 6 – AAAAAAA 77.34 51.88
7 5 – AAAAAA 72.19 51.77
8 7 – AAAAAAA 72.14 43.96
9 7 – AAAAA 70.62 45.03
10 5 – AAAA 68.75 46.34
11 6 – AAAAAA 68.66 48.89
12 5 – AAAAAAA 68.65 52.48
13 2 – AAAAAAA 67.96 48.79
14 4 – AAAAA 65.77 46.11
15 2 – AAAAAA 65.40 46.34
16 4 – AAAAAA 64.23 42.34
17 5 – AAA 62.60 35.41
18 2 – AAAA 61.24 42.47
19 1 – AAAAA 60.96 45.47
20 8 – AAAAA 59.70 32.63
21 3 – AAAA 58.30 19.93
22 7 – AAAA 57.50 37.41
23 3 – AAAAA 56.76 38.54
24 8 – AAAA 56.35 36.86
25 8 – AAAAAA 55.89 38.73
26 1 – AA 55.60 29.62
27 7 – AAAAAA 55.38 36.66
28 5 – A 53.81 25.17
29 4 – AAA 53.38 32.27
30 1 – AAA 53.10 34.62
31 7 – AAA 52.41 27.57
32 1 – AAAA 52.38 35.23
33 4 – AAAA 52.27 26.78
34 2 – AAA 50.79 32.51
35 2 – AAAAA 49.52 25.04
36 5 – AA 48.61 27.53
37 7 – AA 48.58 22.75
38 6 – AAAAA 48.54 28.58
39 6 – AAAA 47.80 26.32
40 2 – A 46.73 25.13
41 2 – AA 46.42 21.50
42 6 – A 44.24 20.62
6 – Div B – A 48.71 22.33
6 – Div A – A 39.83 18.97
43 8 – A 43.20 20.41
44 3 – A 42.69 17.40
3 – Div A – A 46.94 22.64
3 – Div B – A 35.71 14.49
45 7 – A 42.56 26.40
7 – Div A – A 50.03 30.04
7 – Div B – A 35.78 23.77
46 6 – AA 42.23 25.16
47 4 – A 42.16 14.03
4 – Div B – A 49.36 23.88
4 – Div A – A 31.62 0.07
48 3 – AA 41.90 23.63
49 3 – AAAAAA 41.80 25.91
50 6 – AAA 41.51 19.83
6 – South – AAA 50.60 30.24
6 – North – AAA 29.34 7.51
51 5 – AAAAA 39.19 23.54
52 4 – AA 35.18 9.56
53 3 – AAA 33.25 9.17
54 8 – AA 33.07 7.01
55 8 – AAA 28.27 11.88
56 1 – A 27.32 8.73

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 27.68 94.1% 0.130
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 16.16 83.4% 0.193
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 16.85 84.4% 0.220
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 17.41 85.1% 0.229
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 18.55 86.5% 0.230
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 16.12 83.4% 0.238
08/20 Tucker Kell 13 – 20 14.54 81.1% 0.258
09/02 Jackson Lamar County 10 – 13 14.86 81.6% 0.271
08/26 Heritage (Ringgold) Ringgold 34 – 40 13.79 79.9% 0.274
09/30 Sandy Creek Troup 20 – 28 12.91 78.4% 0.280
11/05 Arabia Mountain Lithonia 18 – 20 14.38 80.8% 0.283
08/19 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 13 – 14 14.61 81.2% 0.286
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 11.37 75.7% 0.298
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 13.50 79.4% 0.302
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 – 21 11.50 75.9% 0.307

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
95.12 12/10 Grayson Roswell 13.58 79.5%
92.75 12/02 Grayson Mill Creek 44 – 26 17.12 84.7%
87.99 11/25 Grayson Colquitt County 49 – 21 20.06 88.1%
87.40 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 5.90 64.3%
87.01 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 7.96 68.9%
86.91 11/25 Mill Creek McEachern 31 – 28 5.59 63.6%
86.68 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 21.23 89.3%
84.96 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 0.81 52.0%
84.72 09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 2.38 55.9%
84.45 12/09 Valdosta Tucker 1.71 54.3%
82.05 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 12.37 77.5%
79.05 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 9.59 72.3%
79.00 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 8.92 70.9%
78.99 12/10 Cartersville Thomson 5.99 64.6%
78.95 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 8.98 71.0%

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