Maxwell Quarterfinal Summary: Favorites continue to roll

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– As most of the favored teams in each classification continue to advance, Westlake is the only Cinderella left, if even they can be considered that.  The Lions were 49.16 to one odds to make it this far at the beginning of the playoffs.
– Buford retakes AAAAA off their win over Carrollton.  Buford led the classification for most of the year until Stockbridge took the lead late in the season.
– Grayson’s rating continues to improve, this time after their 49-21 route of two-time defending state champion Colquitt County.  If the season were finished today, the Rams would have the 13th highest rating since 1948, edging out Coach Jeff Herron’s 2003 Camden County Wildcats state championship team.  However . . . there is at least one more tough game left to play, and most likely two, before considering them among the all-time greats.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.11%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,052 of 2,250 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.36%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.14 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.49

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 12-1 105.70 1 Valdosta 12-1 84.10
2 Mill Creek 13-0 92.07 2 Tucker 12-1 82.49
3 Roswell 13-0 91.19 3 Northside (Warner Robins) 11-2 78.67
4 Colquitt County 8-5 85.11 4 Mays 11-2 75.65
5 McEachern 11-2 84.62 5 Dalton 13-0 74.57
6 Lowndes 10-3 77.49 6 Harrison 10-2 74.04
7 North Cobb 10-3 76.00 7 Lee County 8-3 72.58
8 Norcross 11-1 75.44 8 Houston County 7-3 71.21
9 Westlake 10-3 69.80 9 Glynn Academy 11-2 69.22
10 Parkview 8-4 68.08 10 Coffee 7-6 66.98
11 Cherokee 7-5 67.94 11 Alexander 10-2 66.73
12 Brookwood 8-4 66.98 12 Northgate 9-3 64.39
13 Woodstock 7-5 65.72 13 Hughes 8-4 63.17
14 Tift County 6-5 65.67 14 Stephenson 8-5 60.36
15 North Paulding 7-4 65.41 15 Allatoona 6-6 60.18
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 12-1 77.37 1 Cartersville 13-0 84.49
2 Rome 11-2 75.20 2 Thomson 13-0 75.13
3 Stockbridge 13-0 73.67 3 Woodward Academy 11-2 68.16
4 Kell 11-2 70.77 4 Jefferson 12-1 62.56
5 Carrollton 11-2 69.77 5 Mary Persons 11-2 61.48
6 Woodland (Stockbridge) 10-3 63.08 6 Sandy Creek 8-4 59.73
7 Ware County 8-4 61.89 7 Cairo 11-2 57.14
8 Griffin 11-2 58.05 8 Blessed Trinity 10-3 56.18
9 Jones County 8-4 56.87 9 Spalding 8-5 55.98
10 Grady 10-2 56.20 10 Marist 7-4 51.80
11 Thomas County Central 8-4 55.68 11 Burke County 9-3 50.88
12 Bainbridge 5-6 52.51 12 Troup 8-3 48.29
13 Loganville 9-3 50.88 13 Ridgeland 9-2 48.06
14 Starr’s Mill 7-5 50.48 14 Eastside 7-3-1 46.97
15 Locust Grove 6-4 49.74 15 Cedartown 5-5 46.55
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-1 68.25 1 Benedictine 13-0 74.49
2 Peach County 12-1 63.59 2 Fitzgerald 12-1 68.37
3 Cedar Grove 11-2 62.44 3 Callaway 13-0 58.88
4 Westminster (Atlanta) 10-3 60.12 4 Rabun County 11-1 58.17
5 Crisp County 13-0 59.15 5 Pepperell 10-2 53.36
6 Lovett 8-4 55.47 6 Hapeville Charter 10-3 45.94
7 Calhoun 10-3 54.41 7 Brooks County 8-4 45.94
8 Liberty County 11-2 53.62 8 Rockmart 9-3 44.93
9 Pace Academy 6-5 49.98 9 Screven County 11-2 43.14
10 Jackson 8-4 46.37 10 Chattooga 8-5 40.55
11 Dawson County 7-3 43.93 11 Vidalia 9-3 39.91
12 Pierce County 9-4 42.99 12 Thomasville 5-5 39.37
13 Worth County 7-5 42.39 13 Model 7-4 39.00
14 Westside (Macon) 6-5 38.43 14 Jefferson County 10-2 38.67
15 Jenkins 10-2 38.31 15 Washington County 8-4 36.91
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 10-2 61.59 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 12-0 65.89
2 Emanuel County Institute 11-0 57.51 2 Fellowship Christian 12-0 58.54
3 Clinch County 11-1 57.09 3 Prince Avenue Christian 12-0 56.02
4 Manchester 10-2 48.30 4 Tattnall Square 12-0 53.54
5 Irwin County 8-5 45.80 5 Wesleyan 9-3 49.71
6 McIntosh County Academy 9-2 43.32 6 Landmark Christian 10-2 46.65
7 Commerce 9-3 43.05 7 Mount Paran Christian 10-2 46.46
8 Turner County 8-4 41.25 8 Calvary Day 10-1 44.71
9 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-2 39.60 9 Stratford Academy 8-4 40.88
10 Twiggs County 8-4 38.39 10 Darlington 8-4 38.56
11 Taylor County 10-2 37.97 11 Pinecrest Academy 8-4 35.66
12 Dooly County 6-5 33.56 12 Athens Academy 9-3 35.45
13 Greene County 9-4 33.04 13 George Walton Academy 8-4 32.28
14 Lincoln County 7-4-1 32.54 14 Savannah Christian 7-4 31.93
15 Telfair County 5-4 31.18 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-5 31.07

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 12-1 105.70 62.73 15
2 [2] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 13-0 92.07 58.43 27
3 [3] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 13-0 91.19 63.56 9
4 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-5 85.11 76.23 1
5 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 11-2 84.62 62.51 16
6 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 13-0 84.49 48.75 73
7 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 12-1 84.10 64.69 5
8 [2] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 12-1 82.49 47.75 79
9 [3] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 11-2 78.67 57.58 28
10 [6] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 10-3 77.49 63.00 13
11 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 12-1 77.37 39.35 135
12 [7] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 10-3 76.00 62.93 14
13 [4] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-2 75.65 56.72 30
14 [8] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 11-1 75.44 51.77 58
15 [2] Rome 7 – AAAAA 11-2 75.20 43.89 102
16 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 13-0 75.13 32.02 218
17 [5] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 13-0 74.57 47.34 81
18 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 13-0 74.49 23.39 316
19 [6] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 10-2 74.04 53.28 48
20 [3] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 13-0 73.67 46.66 88
21 [7] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-3 72.58 59.65 21
22 [8] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 71.21 61.95 19
23 [4] Kell 7 – AAAAA 11-2 70.77 49.69 66
24 [9] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 10-3 69.80 56.18 35
25 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 11-2 69.77 44.66 101
26 [9] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 11-2 69.22 47.32 82
27 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 12-1 68.37 39.32 136
28 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 12-1 68.25 37.40 157
29 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-2 68.16 39.00 142
30 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 68.08 56.35 32
31 [11] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 67.94 63.46 10
32 [10] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 7-6 66.98 63.98 7
33 [12] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 66.98 58.73 23
34 [11] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 66.73 51.84 57
35 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 12-0 65.89 27.07 275
36 [13] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 65.72 62.00 18
37 [14] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-5 65.67 66.05 4
38 [15] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-4 65.41 57.51 29
39 [16] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 8-4 65.18 59.40 22
40 [12] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 9-3 64.39 52.71 51
41 [17] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 4-7 64.28 71.08 2
42 [18] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 6-6 63.93 60.91 20
43 [2] Peach County 4 – AAA 12-1 63.59 37.15 160
44 [19] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.44 58.63 25
45 [13] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 8-4 63.17 53.26 49
46 [6] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 10-3 63.08 46.13 92
47 [20] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.00 63.29 12
48 [21] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 62.99 63.40 11
49 [22] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-3 62.88 44.91 99
50 [23] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 8-3 62.73 47.98 75
51 [24] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.60 54.81 39
52 [4] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 12-1 62.56 37.53 155
53 [3] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 11-2 62.44 35.16 185
54 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 8-4 61.89 51.88 56
55 [1] Macon County 4 – A 10-2 61.59 36.34 172
56 [5] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 11-2 61.48 40.05 132
57 [25] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 60.77 54.19 43
58 [14] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 8-5 60.36 50.39 63
59 [15] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-6 60.18 56.70 31
60 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 10-3 60.12 40.79 125
61 [26] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-4-1 60.00 58.46 26
62 [6] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 8-4 59.73 47.87 76
63 [27] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-6 59.73 62.36 17
64 [28] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-6 59.24 63.67 8
65 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 13-0 59.15 34.37 192
66 [3] Callaway 5 – AA 13-0 58.88 33.28 198
67 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 12-0 58.54 23.50 312
68 [4] Rabun County 8 – AA 11-1 58.17 19.28 354
69 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 7-5 58.15 54.04 44
70 [8] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 11-2 58.05 41.11 124
71 [2] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 11-0 57.51 12.27 390
72 [7] Cairo 1 – AAAA 11-2 57.14 39.30 137
73 [3] Clinch County 2 – A 11-1 57.09 27.78 262
74 [9] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-4 56.87 47.38 80
75 [16] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 56.56 46.75 87
76 [10] Grady 6 – AAAAA 10-2 56.20 32.51 210
77 [8] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 10-3 56.18 39.74 134
78 [17] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 7-5 56.07 50.22 65
79 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 12-0 56.02 22.99 320
80 [9] Spalding 2 – AAAA 8-5 55.98 49.19 69
81 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 8-4 55.68 49.33 68
82 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 8-4 55.47 41.30 121
83 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 55.40 58.71 24
84 [18] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 54.45 41.85 120
85 [7] Calhoun 6 – AAA 10-3 54.41 30.16 241
86 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 11-2 53.62 32.98 202
87 [4] Tattnall Square 7 – A 12-0 53.54 22.55 324
88 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 10-2 53.36 31.22 226
89 [19] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 52.78 41.27 122
90 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 5-6 52.51 49.36 67
91 [20] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 7-4 52.23 48.70 74
92 [21] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 51.87 47.84 77
93 [10] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-4 51.80 42.06 118
94 [22] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 5-5 51.71 50.56 62
95 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.07 45.32 96
96 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 50.96 51.61 59
97 [13] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 9-3 50.88 34.60 189
98 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-3 50.88 27.63 265
99 [14] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-5 50.48 46.16 91
100 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 6-5 49.98 48.78 71
101 [15] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-4 49.74 42.92 110
102 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 9-3 49.71 28.48 254
103 [24] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 49.67 41.15 123
104 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-7 48.53 56.29 33
105 [4] Manchester 4 – A 10-2 48.30 18.35 361
106 [12] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-3 48.29 37.55 154
107 [25] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 48.16 52.89 50
108 [13] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-2 48.06 30.70 234
109 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 6-5 47.79 46.05 93
110 [14] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-3-1 46.97 34.68 188
111 [17] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-8 46.79 56.26 34
112 [6] Landmark Christian 5 – A 10-2 46.65 27.50 269
113 [15] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-5 46.55 44.94 98
114 [7] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 10-2 46.46 27.19 274
115 [18] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 46.41 28.42 256
116 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 8-4 46.37 32.56 207
117 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 8-3 46.23 35.75 179
118 [26] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 6-5 46.19 42.46 114
119 [16] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-5 46.16 36.96 164
120 [6] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 10-3 45.94 31.47 222
121 [7] Brooks County 1 – AA 8-4 45.94 39.19 140
122 [17] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 7-5 45.91 39.28 138
123 [5] Irwin County 2 – A 8-5 45.80 35.66 183
124 [20] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-5 45.68 42.38 115
125 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-6 45.50 52.39 53
126 [27] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 4-7 45.22 54.20 42
127 [28] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 45.16 46.38 90
128 [34] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-7 45.11 53.46 46
129 [18] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-5 45.06 41.88 119
130 [35] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-7 45.03 67.36 3
131 [29] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 44.99 40.57 129
132 [8] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 44.93 27.28 273
133 [8] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-1 44.71 17.98 364
134 [36] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 44.66 64.44 6
135 [37] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-7 44.55 54.21 41
136 [30] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-5 44.46 39.26 139
137 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 8-4 44.33 32.35 214
138 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-5-1 44.01 45.27 97
139 [21] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 8-3 43.96 31.19 227
140 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-3 43.93 30.89 232
141 [21] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-3 43.60 29.59 246
142 [22] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-6 43.44 45.98 94
143 [6] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 9-2 43.32 23.82 310
144 [23] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-5 43.31 37.09 162
145 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 11-2 43.14 15.18 375
146 [7] Commerce 8 – A 9-3 43.05 23.32 317
147 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-4 43.00 35.94 178
148 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 42.99 46.78 85
149 [12] Pierce County 2 – AAA 9-4 42.99 32.50 211
150 [24] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 42.84 52.66 52
151 [13] Worth County 1 – AAA 7-5 42.39 37.90 151
152 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 7-5 41.97 38.79 143
153 [25] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-5 41.80 38.75 145
154 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 41.61 38.36 147
155 [8] Turner County 2 – A 8-4 41.25 31.55 221
156 [9] Stratford Academy 7 – A 8-4 40.88 29.53 247
157 [10] Chattooga 7 – AA 8-5 40.55 32.81 203
158 [32] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-8 40.16 55.20 38
159 [26] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 39.99 53.46 47
160 [11] Vidalia 2 – AA 9-3 39.91 27.44 271
161 [27] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-5 39.80 36.56 167
162 [9] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-2 39.60 20.86 345
163 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 39.59 56.03 36
164 [12] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-5 39.37 37.88 152
165 [28] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 39.04 43.37 107
166 [13] Model 7 – AA 7-4 39.00 29.88 244
167 [29] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.95 47.19 83
168 [14] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 38.67 18.21 362
169 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-4 38.56 27.49 270
170 [24] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-4 38.54 23.67 311
171 [14] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-5 38.43 33.74 195
172 [10] Twiggs County 7 – A 8-4 38.39 28.87 250
173 [25] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-6 38.32 43.86 103
174 [33] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-5 38.32 34.43 190
175 [15] Jenkins 3 – AAA 10-2 38.31 17.29 366
176 [11] Taylor County 4 – A 10-2 37.97 14.43 379
177 [34] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 37.50 49.04 70
178 [30] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-6 37.42 42.91 111
179 [16] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 8-4 37.37 30.35 237
180 [15] Washington County 3 – AA 8-4 36.91 29.30 249
181 [26] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 36.88 52.07 54
182 [27] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-9 36.25 50.29 64
183 [17] Savannah 3 – AAA 8-3 36.22 13.54 383
184 [35] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-5 36.07 36.49 168
185 [16] Spencer 5 – AA 6-5 35.67 33.04 201
186 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 8-4 35.66 26.24 280
187 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-4 35.64 37.49 156
188 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-8 35.57 53.57 45
189 [17] Dublin 3 – AA 8-3 35.51 26.67 278
190 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 9-3 35.45 21.42 331
191 [18] Dodge County 3 – AA 6-6 35.14 32.67 206
192 [31] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 5-6 35.09 36.38 171
193 [18] Cook 1 – AAA 5-6 34.99 38.05 150
194 [29] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 34.93 35.99 177
195 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-5-1 34.92 36.91 166
196 [36] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 34.88 38.77 144
197 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 6-5 34.85 33.38 197
198 [37] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 34.55 25.63 285
199 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-5 34.53 33.10 200
200 [19] Brantley County 2 – AAA 6-4 33.67 30.34 239
201 [20] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-5 33.60 32.76 205
202 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 6-5 33.56 30.34 238
203 [33] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-7 33.34 43.08 108
204 [21] Bremen 6 – AAA 7-5 33.28 26.48 279
205 [38] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 33.22 42.34 116
206 [20] Douglass 6 – AA 8-4 33.15 21.35 335
207 [13] Greene County 7 – A 9-4 33.04 24.11 306
208 [39] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 33.00 43.54 106
209 [34] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-7 32.62 42.83 112
210 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 5-5 32.57 31.92 219
211 [14] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-4-1 32.54 28.09 259
212 [13] George Walton Academy 8 – A 8-4 32.28 20.25 347
213 [35] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-5 32.24 30.22 240
214 [40] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-8 32.01 54.57 40
215 [14] Savannah Christian 3 – A 7-4 31.93 23.50 313
216 [22] Union County 7 – AAA 8-3 31.88 24.88 295
217 [21] Heard County 5 – AA 7-4 31.73 24.38 300
218 [41] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 31.65 52.05 55
219 [41] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 31.53 30.98 230
220 [42] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 31.34 36.33 173
221 [32] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 31.19 38.27 148
222 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 5-4 31.18 27.57 268
223 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 6-5 31.07 27.62 266
224 [33] Luella 4 – AAAA 5-6 31.06 35.74 180
225 [42] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-7 30.57 42.26 117
226 [43] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-6-1 30.54 40.67 128
227 [36] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 30.53 30.93 231
228 [23] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-3 30.49 16.61 369
229 [16] First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-5 30.48 25.76 283
230 [37] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 3-8 30.22 43.84 104
231 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 7-4 30.21 19.70 351
232 [22] Lamar County 5 – AA 6-5 30.18 31.40 223
233 [38] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 30.04 27.33 272
234 [24] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-5 29.73 32.55 208
235 [25] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-5 29.48 28.63 252
236 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.16 25.83 282
237 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-6 28.98 42.68 113
238 [44] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-6 28.86 30.60 236
239 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-7 28.72 40.70 126
240 [23] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-5 28.65 25.10 293
241 [16] Bowdon 6 – A 6-5 28.40 24.04 307
242 [24] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-3 28.33 20.93 343
243 [17] Mitchell County 1 – A 9-3 27.97 11.38 401
244 [27] North Murray 6 – AAA 8-4 27.93 15.87 372
245 [28] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-6 27.54 37.70 153
246 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-4 27.47 25.21 292
247 [18] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-7 27.38 32.53 209
248 [18] Aquinas 7 – A 6-5 27.28 28.43 255
249 [29] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 5-6 27.17 28.17 258
250 [19] Miller County 1 – A 9-3 27.03 14.09 382
251 [45] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 26.93 43.05 109
252 [39] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 4-7 26.65 34.12 193
253 [20] Trion 6 – A 6-5 26.52 20.51 346
254 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-2 26.50 10.28 408
255 [40] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-6 25.86 32.78 204
256 [41] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-7 25.55 37.09 161
257 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 5-6 25.16 27.74 263
258 [46] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 24.58 50.67 61
259 [47] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-8 24.08 35.67 182
260 [48] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 23.98 40.32 131
261 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-6 23.97 28.83 251
262 [30] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-5 23.89 21.40 333
263 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 23.73 40.39 130
264 [25] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-7 23.63 32.26 215
265 [31] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 23.23 22.48 325
266 [26] Laney 4 – AA 5-6 23.05 21.38 334
267 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 22.98 39.90 133
268 [22] Charlton County 2 – A 3-6 22.87 29.94 243
269 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-6 22.41 28.55 253
270 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-5 22.15 24.61 298
271 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-9 21.99 37.36 158
272 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-5 21.75 18.60 358
273 [33] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-7 21.74 32.10 216
274 [23] Terrell County 1 – A 7-4 21.74 14.74 377
275 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 21.70 35.31 184
276 [43] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-7 21.55 31.68 220
277 [44] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-8-1 21.52 47.16 84
278 [50] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 21.46 16.46 370
279 [45] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 3-7-1 21.42 31.39 224
280 [38] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-7 21.23 31.09 229
281 [28] Therrell 6 – AA 4-6 21.17 25.53 287
282 [29] Berrien 1 – AA 4-6 21.05 31.26 225
283 [24] Marion County 4 – A 7-4 20.65 11.88 396
284 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 20.32 47.75 78
285 [30] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-4-1 20.04 14.39 380
286 [51] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.80 48.78 72
287 [21] Walker 6 – A 4-7 18.96 25.83 281
288 [35] Towers 5 – AAA 3-7 18.78 32.42 213
289 [52] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-7-1 18.73 32.03 217
290 [53] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 18.73 35.71 181
291 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-10 18.64 51.50 60
292 [46] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 18.61 44.82 100
293 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-9 18.39 40.69 127
294 [47] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 18.25 46.43 89
295 [25] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-4 18.15 11.63 397
296 [36] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-6 17.82 24.00 309
297 [39] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-9 17.78 39.17 141
298 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-5 17.68 18.66 357
299 [40] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-7 17.68 30.81 233
300 [31] Banks County 8 – AA 6-5 17.49 14.32 381
301 [32] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 17.43 29.42 248
302 [23] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-6 17.15 22.07 328
303 [41] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 16.66 36.91 165
304 [37] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-4 16.40 10.03 412
305 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 3-7 16.40 32.47 212
306 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 4-7 16.38 21.17 338
307 [33] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 16.18 24.33 302
308 [42] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 6-5 15.99 14.53 378
309 [43] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-10 15.89 43.56 105
310 [34] Coosa 7 – AA 4-6 15.45 25.05 294
311 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-7 15.40 23.28 318
312 [35] Early County 1 – AA 1-8-1 15.29 36.25 174
313 [39] East Hall 7 – AAA 3-7 15.22 24.18 305
314 [27] Warren County 7 – A 4-6 15.04 20.90 344
315 [49] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-10 14.87 46.76 86
316 [36] Northeast 3 – AA 2-8 14.76 27.59 267
317 [37] Temple 5 – AA 6-4 14.63 13.04 385
318 [44] White County 7 – AAAA 1-9 14.57 36.99 163
319 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-8 14.36 33.64 196
320 [28] Treutlen 3 – A 6-4 14.31 10.57 405
321 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-7 13.62 36.46 169
322 [45] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 4-6 13.31 20.97 342
323 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-6 13.19 24.33 301
324 [29] Crawford County 4 – A 5-4 12.89 12.22 391
325 [39] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-7 12.66 26.77 277
326 [41] Long County 2 – AAA 1-6-2 12.57 28.19 257
327 [30] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-4 12.49 7.22 416
328 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 4-7 12.20 22.74 323
329 [31] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-5 11.61 11.97 394
330 [50] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-10 11.54 38.68 146
331 [32] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 11.51 11.93 395
332 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-6 11.45 19.88 348
333 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-5 11.28 12.96 386
334 [33] Seminole County 1 – A 4-5-1 11.00 11.11 402
335 [34] Hawkinsville 4 – A 4-6 10.94 21.30 337
336 [35] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-8 10.83 24.66 296
337 [40] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-7 10.81 25.40 289
338 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.29 38.27 149
339 [36] Montgomery County 3 – A 4-6 10.14 15.58 374
340 [42] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-10 9.96 36.41 170
341 [47] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-10 9.81 37.17 159
342 [43] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-8 9.61 19.62 352
343 [44] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-8 9.57 21.07 339
344 [45] Islands 3 – AAA 4-7 8.82 19.19 355
345 [37] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-5 8.70 11.63 398
346 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-6 8.50 17.75 365
347 [52] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.95 27.64 264
348 [56] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 7.88 55.65 37
349 [41] Metter 2 – AA 2-7 7.87 24.29 304
350 [46] East Jackson 8 – AAA 4-6 7.71 12.50 389
351 [53] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.49 24.55 299
352 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 3-7 7.48 21.73 329
353 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 7.46 34.95 186
354 [42] Monticello 8 – AA 3-8 7.35 25.76 284
355 [38] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-7 7.11 16.86 367
356 [55] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-9 7.10 27.79 261
357 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 3-7 6.64 22.75 322
358 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 6.57 36.20 175
359 [43] Albany 1 – AA 0-10 6.37 30.69 235
360 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-8 6.19 36.17 176
361 [48] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-6 6.01 12.15 392
362 [39] Schley County 4 – A 4-6 5.59 10.93 404
363 [49] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-8-1 5.03 25.29 291
364 [44] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-8 4.94 24.01 308
365 [45] Josey 4 – AA 4-6 4.91 10.47 406
366 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 4.86 25.63 286
367 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 4.61 19.52 353
368 [40] Towns County 8 – A 3-7 4.23 24.62 297
369 [27] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-7 4.22 23.42 315
370 [28] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 4-6 4.20 13.12 384
371 [29] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-8 4.17 23.23 319
372 [46] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-9 3.69 27.00 276
373 [47] Dade County 7 – AA 3-7 3.56 25.37 290
374 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 3.25 25.41 288
375 [48] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-7 2.80 16.77 368
376 [41] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-9 2.51 27.97 260
377 [42] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 3-7 1.67 12.58 388
378 [50] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-10 1.53 33.15 199
379 [49] Harlem 4 – AA 3-7 1.01 11.39 400
380 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 0.73 21.30 336
381 [50] Jordan 5 – AA 0-10 0.70 34.38 191
382 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 0.00 21.64 330
383 [51] Butler 4 – AA 3-7 -0.05 11.01 403
384 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -1.03 24.31 303
385 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-8 -1.50 19.11 356
386 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 3-7 -1.88 22.19 327
387 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -2.01 0.00 417
388 [44] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -2.49 23.45 314
389 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -3.51 31.09 228
390 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-9 -3.56 34.95 187
391 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -3.73 9.35 414
392 [53] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-9 -4.48 15.70 373
393 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -5.42 33.91 194
394 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -6.03 21.41 332
395 [33] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-9 -6.45 19.75 349
396 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-8 -6.71 18.07 363
397 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-8 -6.87 10.28 409
398 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -8.49 29.86 245
399 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-8 -8.95 11.57 399
400 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 2-8 -10.43 18.58 359
401 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-9 -15.11 19.70 350
402 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 -15.19 10.09 411
403 [46] Claxton 3 – A 0-9 -15.60 30.15 242
404 [47] Greenville 4 – A 1-9 -16.08 22.34 326
405 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -17.39 18.50 360
406 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-9 -18.00 16.18 371
407 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-10 -18.30 14.98 376
408 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -19.32 45.51 95
409 [49] Stewart County 1 – A 2-8 -19.74 10.32 407
410 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 1-9 -20.64 12.01 393
411 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-10 -22.13 7.39 415
412 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-10 -25.60 12.63 387
413 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-10 -26.02 22.82 321
414 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-10 -27.42 20.97 341
415 [51] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-9 -28.08 9.57 413
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-5 -28.97 -16.08 418
417 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -30.06 21.01 340
418 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -30.30 10.09 410
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-4 -50.26 -37.58 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -51.32 -27.01 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 89.64 74.65
2 1 – AAAAAAA 87.96 69.52
3 8 – AAAAAAA 85.48 59.51
4 4 – AAAAAAA 85.01 67.22
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.27 62.09
6 6 – AAAAAAA 77.92 52.39
7 5 – AAAAAA 72.80 52.42
8 7 – AAAAAAA 72.55 44.45
9 7 – AAAAA 70.59 45.48
10 6 – AAAAAA 69.64 49.66
11 5 – AAAA 69.56 47.12
12 5 – AAAAAAA 69.14 52.98
13 2 – AAAAAAA 68.59 49.39
14 4 – AAAAA 66.97 47.06
15 2 – AAAAAA 65.90 46.97
16 4 – AAAAAA 64.29 42.85
17 2 – AAAA 62.12 43.40
18 1 – AAAAA 61.88 46.42
19 5 – AAA 61.74 35.37
20 8 – AAAAA 59.72 33.24
21 3 – AAAA 58.41 20.64
22 7 – AAAA 58.14 38.03
23 3 – AAAAA 57.56 39.31
24 8 – AAAA 57.24 37.61
25 1 – AA 57.01 31.15
26 8 – AAAAAA 56.48 39.34
27 7 – AAAAAA 55.98 37.26
28 1 – AAA 55.62 36.36
29 4 – AAA 54.50 33.22
30 5 – A 54.01 25.90
31 1 – AAAA 53.50 36.38
32 4 – AAAA 52.89 27.43
33 7 – AAA 52.35 28.07
34 2 – AAA 51.48 33.24
35 2 – AAAAA 50.12 25.76
36 2 – A 50.04 27.19
37 5 – AA 49.94 28.57
38 7 – AA 49.27 23.49
39 6 – AAAAA 49.20 29.23
40 6 – AAAA 48.52 27.04
41 2 – AA 47.09 22.52
42 8 – A 45.00 21.73
43 6 – A 44.76 21.41
6 – Div B – A 48.72 23.00
6 – Div A – A 40.74 19.86
44 7 – A 43.17 26.94
7 – Div A – A 50.88 30.77
7 – Div B – A 36.17 24.19
45 4 – A 43.08 15.21
4 – Div B – A 50.17 25.17
4 – Div A – A 32.46 1.14
46 3 – A 43.03 17.98
3 – Div A – A 45.49 22.37
3 – Div B – A 38.20 15.40
47 3 – AA 42.90 24.64
48 6 – AA 42.77 25.74
49 3 – AAAAAA 42.50 26.60
50 6 – AAA 42.06 20.52
6 – South – AAA 50.93 30.84
6 – North – AAA 30.05 8.20
51 5 – AAAAA 39.83 24.18
52 4 – AA 35.89 10.27
53 3 – AAA 34.12 10.06
54 8 – AA 33.78 7.74
55 8 – AAA 28.98 12.60
56 1 – A 28.84 10.20

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 24.12 91.8% 0.164
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 15.99 83.2% 0.196
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 16.98 84.5% 0.218
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 17.29 84.9% 0.231
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 18.30 86.2% 0.233
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 16.14 83.4% 0.238
09/02 Clinch County Brooks County 21 – 35 12.64 78.0% 0.264
09/02 Jackson Lamar County 10 – 13 14.71 81.3% 0.273
08/26 Heritage (Ringgold) Ringgold 34 – 40 13.82 79.9% 0.273
09/30 Sandy Creek Troup 20 – 28 12.92 78.5% 0.279
11/05 Arabia Mountain Lithonia 18 – 20 14.40 80.8% 0.283
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 12.28 77.3% 0.283
08/19 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 13 – 14 14.69 81.3% 0.284
08/20 Tucker Kell 13 – 20 11.72 76.4% 0.303
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 13.42 79.3% 0.304

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.81 12/01 Grayson Mill Creek 15.11 81.9%
87.91 11/25 Grayson Colquitt County 49 – 21 19.10 87.1%
87.47 11/25 Mill Creek McEachern 31 – 28 5.97 64.5%
87.41 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 6.96 66.7%
87.36 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 19.60 87.7%
86.76 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 7.56 68.0%
84.60 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 0.47 51.2%
83.38 09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 4.10 60.1%
80.22 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 6.91 66.6%
79.95 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 13.81 79.9%
79.89 12/01 Tucker Northside (Warner Robins) 5.30 63.0%
79.31 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 9.10 71.3%
79.21 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 8.09 69.2%
78.36 11/25 Tucker Mays 28 – 21 5.36 63.1%
77.88 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 10.10 73.3%

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