Maxwell playoff projections for the Quarterfinals

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.


Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 1 11-1 103.03 87.61 4.04 826,496.80 664,316.90 551,585.11 0.81
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1 12-0 90.11 85.73 3.64 816,677.89 619,835.19 204,223.41 3.90
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 1 12-0 90.17 92.19 2.83 576,885.26 160,124.43 94,098.04 9.63
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 2 10-2 82.06 88.24 3.13 803,134.27 276,081.22 53,441.65 17.71
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1 11-1 85.62 92.01 2.56 423,114.74 95,003.03 45,770.18 20.85
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 1 8-4 85.97 93.11 2.29 173,503.20 80,555.64 39,468.32 24.34
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 2 10-2 76.62 90.92 2.27 183,322.11 79,446.15 10,106.50 97.95
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1 9-3 66.55 89.66 2.22 196,865.73 24,637.45 1,306.79 764.23

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1 11-1 85.99 71.01 4.20 943,959.04 743,765.70 517,164.25 0.93
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 1 11-1 79.08 78.22 3.04 557,741.24 341,736.76 140,979.00 6.09
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 1 11-1 78.21 79.68 2.80 442,258.76 255,505.13 100,493.34 8.95
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 2 10-2 77.75 79.48 2.92 571,996.13 251,924.73 96,559.45 9.36
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 1 12-0 74.98 77.58 2.99 700,986.52 198,462.60 86,055.47 10.62
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1 11-1 73.40 79.66 2.62 428,003.87 150,833.38 44,415.57 21.51
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 4 7-5 67.91 80.53 2.36 299,013.48 46,356.76 12,759.64 77.37
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 3 8-4 59.20 80.48 2.07 56,040.96 11,414.94 1,573.28 634.61

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 1 12-0 77.25 67.16 3.86 888,350.31 592,946.90 375,259.70 1.66
Buford 8 – AAAAA 1 11-1 75.34 69.45 3.44 687,831.33 492,738.32 259,949.88 2.85
Rome 7 – AAAAA 1 10-2 72.20 71.39 3.05 637,608.65 272,100.16 139,859.14 6.15
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 2 10-2 68.05 71.66 2.84 566,601.84 199,469.79 71,494.05 12.99
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 2 11-1 68.89 73.05 2.55 312,168.67 171,580.92 64,672.13 14.46
Kell 7 – AAAAA 3 10-2 66.82 72.93 2.61 433,398.16 136,210.97 45,235.11 21.11
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 1 8-3 65.10 72.14 2.51 362,391.35 110,643.85 38,429.17 25.02
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 2 11-1 57.96 74.16 2.14 111,649.69 24,309.10 5,100.82 195.05

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 1 12-0 84.38 67.51 4.08 782,960.01 721,036.14 576,739.56 0.73
Thomson 3 – AAAA 1 12-0 73.80 66.85 3.80 868,413.09 680,144.17 255,364.03 2.92
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1 11-1 70.10 72.86 2.47 217,039.99 165,754.99 85,325.30 10.72
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 1 11-1 60.65 70.63 2.76 569,055.83 164,913.26 27,762.85 35.02
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 1 10-2 60.64 71.92 2.63 546,366.40 66,252.66 20,695.75 47.32
Cairo 1 – AAAA 1 11-1 59.32 71.94 2.55 430,944.17 105,699.78 16,195.99 60.74
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 1 10-2 57.33 71.25 2.51 453,633.60 46,956.21 11,839.78 83.46
Spalding 2 – AAAA 3 8-4 56.38 73.23 2.19 131,586.91 49,242.79 6,076.73 163.56

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 1 11-1 69.76 59.26 3.75 801,866.33 540,927.14 402,573.39 1.48
Crisp County 1 – AAA 1 12-0 58.40 58.01 3.35 824,624.68 393,427.30 131,613.59 6.60
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 1 10-2 63.10 62.81 2.88 534,196.53 216,849.85 130,214.09 6.68
Calhoun 6 – AAA 1 10-2 60.05 60.41 2.98 539,666.47 321,011.69 118,792.95 7.42
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 2 10-2 59.91 61.80 2.81 460,333.53 257,013.40 94,319.65 9.60
Peach County 4 – AAA 1 11-1 60.28 62.23 2.73 465,803.47 175,041.57 93,139.97 9.74
Liberty County 2 – AAA 1 11-1 54.33 63.18 2.29 198,133.67 67,181.44 26,028.92 37.42
Pierce County 2 – AAA 2 9-3 44.37 62.19 2.21 175,375.32 28,547.60 3,317.45 300.44

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 1 12-0 75.45 59.87 4.13 867,955.33 720,263.39 542,428.23 0.84
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1 11-1 67.00 62.70 3.27 555,767.01 507,277.81 205,988.21 3.85
Rabun County 8 – AA 1 11-0 63.31 62.95 2.97 444,232.99 394,576.45 130,733.82 6.65
Callaway 5 – AA 1 12-0 61.14 63.45 3.15 850,814.04 211,138.24 92,965.44 9.76
Pepperell 7 – AA 1 10-1 55.17 66.38 2.21 132,044.67 59,133.25 18,555.21 52.89
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1 9-3 44.88 63.04 2.66 589,524.49 63,879.78 5,619.57 176.95
Chattooga 7 – AA 3 8-4 42.71 63.89 2.45 410,475.51 34,265.96 2,507.48 397.81
Screven County 4 – AA 1 11-1 42.28 65.56 2.16 149,185.96 9,465.12 1,202.04 830.92

Class A-Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Macon County 4 – A 1 9-2 60.99 42.31 3.90 793,146.97 645,181.81 465,876.20 1.15
Clinch County 2 – A 2 10-1 55.12 42.68 3.68 759,145.42 626,405.36 292,659.03 2.42
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 4 10-0 48.53 46.29 2.81 586,617.58 156,347.33 70,348.41 13.21
Manchester 4 – A 8 10-1 49.00 48.15 2.37 206,853.03 108,833.04 50,129.16 18.95
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 6 8-2 42.91 46.07 2.98 736,721.98 199,167.46 44,395.16 21.52
Commerce 8 – A 7 9-2 45.09 48.19 2.42 240,854.58 141,215.29 36,682.48 26.26
Irwin County 2 – A 21 8-4 46.48 48.16 2.54 413,382.42 89,637.81 36,229.42 26.60
Greene County 7 – A 14 9-3 34.07 48.32 2.30 263,278.02 33,211.90 3,680.13 270.73

Class A-Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 1 11-0 66.07 42.31 4.11 839,296.10 719,563.44 552,665.12 0.81
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 3 11-0 56.31 44.85 3.29 717,683.52 415,584.25 157,693.00 5.34
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 2 11-0 54.30 42.68 3.15 665,076.52 358,761.78 121,597.06 7.22
Tattnall Square 7 – A 5 11-0 50.94 45.99 2.71 542,397.94 119,479.70 51,189.30 18.54
Wesleyan 5 – A 8 9-2 50.99 48.15 2.28 160,703.90 80,515.25 34,592.07 27.91
Calvary Day 3 – A 4 10-0 47.79 46.29 2.57 457,602.06 80,441.60 28,567.47 34.00
Landmark Christian 5 – A 7 10-1 48.89 48.19 2.48 334,923.48 115,061.60 27,796.70 34.98
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 6 10-1 48.43 46.07 2.42 282,316.48 110,592.38 25,899.26 37.61

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