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Maxwell Round Two Summary: Grayson-Colquitt County, Mill Creek-McEachern headline coming weekend

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Playoffs are always a time of exceptional match ups and the AAAAAAA quarterfinals feature two of the season’s highest rated games so far. First, the top team in the state, Grayson, will face off against two-time defending state champion Colquitt County in Moultrie. Meanwhile, a semifinalist from last year, Mill Creek, squares off against McEachern, a team whose only loss was an early season game to Grayson by a field goal.
– Lowndes surprised Norcross 57-21 for the most surprising result of Round Two while Tucker made the largest gain in the ratings, nearly 8 points, after their 23-7 downing of Harrison.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.11%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,022 of 2,218 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.32%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.15 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.45

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 11-1 103.03 1 Valdosta 11-1 85.99
2 Mill Creek 12-0 90.17 2 Tucker 11-1 79.08
3 Roswell 12-0 90.11 3 Mays 11-1 78.21
4 Colquitt County 8-4 85.97 4 Northside (Warner Robins) 10-2 77.75
5 McEachern 11-1 85.62 5 Dalton 12-0 74.98
6 Lowndes 10-2 82.06 6 Lee County 8-3 73.45
7 Norcross 11-1 76.96 7 Glynn Academy 11-1 73.40
8 North Cobb 10-2 76.62 8 Harrison 10-2 73.29
9 Parkview 8-4 69.32 9 Houston County 7-3 71.22
10 Cherokee 7-5 67.83 10 Coffee 7-5 67.91
11 Brookwood 8-4 67.60 11 Alexander 10-2 67.65
12 Tift County 6-5 66.72 12 Northgate 9-3 65.21
13 Westlake 9-3 66.55 13 Hughes 8-4 63.44
14 North Paulding 7-4 65.65 14 Allatoona 6-6 61.02
15 Woodstock 7-5 65.57 15 Stephenson 8-4 59.20
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Stockbridge 12-0 77.25 1 Cartersville 12-0 84.38
2 Buford 11-1 75.34 2 Thomson 12-0 73.80
3 Rome 10-2 72.20 3 Woodward Academy 11-1 70.10
4 Carrollton 11-1 68.89 4 Jefferson 11-1 60.65
5 Woodland (Stockbridge) 10-2 68.05 5 Mary Persons 10-2 60.64
6 Kell 10-2 66.82 6 Sandy Creek 8-4 60.63
7 Ware County 8-3 65.10 7 Cairo 11-1 59.32
8 Jones County 8-4 59.00 8 Blessed Trinity 10-2 57.33
9 Grady 10-2 58.70 9 Spalding 8-4 56.38
10 Griffin 11-1 57.96 10 Marist 7-4 52.66
11 Thomas County Central 8-4 56.18 11 Burke County 9-3 51.47
12 Bainbridge 5-6 52.95 12 Troup 8-3 49.15
13 Locust Grove 6-4 51.93 13 Ridgeland 9-2 49.04
14 Loganville 9-3 51.76 14 Eastside 7-3-1 47.60
15 Starr’s Mill 7-5 50.53 15 Cedartown 5-5 47.54
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 11-1 69.76 1 Benedictine 12-0 75.45
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 10-2 63.10 2 Fitzgerald 11-1 67.00
3 Peach County 11-1 60.28 3 Rabun County 11-0 63.31
4 Calhoun 10-2 60.05 4 Callaway 12-0 61.14
5 Cedar Grove 10-2 59.91 5 Pepperell 10-1 55.17
6 Crisp County 12-0 58.40 6 Brooks County 8-4 46.42
7 Lovett 8-4 55.79 7 Rockmart 9-3 46.18
8 Liberty County 11-1 54.33 8 Hapeville Charter 9-3 44.88
9 Pace Academy 6-5 49.94 9 Chattooga 8-4 42.71
10 Jackson 8-4 47.09 10 Screven County 11-1 42.28
11 Dawson County 7-3 44.97 11 Vidalia 9-3 40.67
12 Pierce County 9-3 44.37 12 Model 7-4 40.44
13 Worth County 7-5 42.73 13 Thomasville 5-5 39.94
14 Westside (Macon) 6-5 38.96 14 Jefferson County 10-2 38.64
15 Sonoraville 8-4 38.71 15 Washington County 8-4 37.84
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 9-2 60.99 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 11-0 66.07
2 Clinch County 10-1 55.12 2 Fellowship Christian 11-0 56.31
3 Manchester 10-1 49.00 3 Prince Avenue Christian 11-0 54.30
4 Emanuel County Institute 10-0 48.53 4 Wesleyan 9-2 50.99
5 Irwin County 8-4 46.48 5 Tattnall Square 11-0 50.94
6 Commerce 9-2 45.09 6 Landmark Christian 10-1 48.89
7 McIntosh County Academy 8-2 42.91 7 Mount Paran Christian 10-1 48.43
8 Turner County 8-4 41.21 8 Calvary Day 10-0 47.79
9 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-2 40.04 9 Stratford Academy 8-4 40.81
10 Taylor County 10-2 38.81 10 Darlington 8-4 39.70
11 Twiggs County 8-4 38.66 11 Pinecrest Academy 8-4 36.42
12 Dooly County 6-5 34.16 12 Athens Academy 9-3 36.40
13 Greene County 9-3 34.07 13 George Walton Academy 8-4 33.00
14 Lincoln County 7-4-1 32.95 14 Savannah Christian 7-4 32.81
15 Telfair County 5-4 31.43 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-5 31.78

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 11-1 103.03 60.19 21
2 [2] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 12-0 90.17 56.50 33
3 [3] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 12-0 90.11 62.46 14
4 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 11-1 85.99 66.73 5
5 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 8-4 85.97 74.21 1
6 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 11-1 85.62 60.49 20
7 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 12-0 84.38 47.72 79
8 [6] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 10-2 82.06 63.18 10
9 [2] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 11-1 79.08 44.80 102
10 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 11-1 78.21 55.35 38
11 [4] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 10-2 77.75 56.76 31
12 [1] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 12-0 77.25 47.37 84
13 [7] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 11-1 76.96 52.36 55
14 [8] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 10-2 76.62 61.06 18
15 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 12-0 75.45 21.76 337
16 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 11-1 75.34 36.64 171
17 [5] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 12-0 74.98 46.71 86
18 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 12-0 73.80 29.75 246
19 [6] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-3 73.45 60.53 19
20 [7] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 11-1 73.40 45.79 95
21 [8] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 10-2 73.29 53.33 48
22 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 10-2 72.20 41.87 120
23 [9] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 71.22 61.78 16
24 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 11-1 70.10 37.16 164
25 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 11-1 69.76 36.10 180
26 [9] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 69.32 57.27 29
27 [4] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 11-1 68.89 42.25 118
28 [5] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 10-2 68.05 45.64 98
29 [10] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 7-5 67.91 63.52 8
30 [10] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 67.83 63.42 9
31 [11] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 10-2 67.65 52.59 54
32 [11] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 8-4 67.60 59.22 23
33 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 11-1 67.00 37.97 155
34 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 10-2 66.82 47.64 80
35 [12] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-5 66.72 67.08 4
36 [13] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 9-3 66.55 54.03 45
37 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 11-0 66.07 25.49 292
38 [14] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-4 65.65 57.69 27
39 [15] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-5 65.57 61.91 15
40 [12] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 9-3 65.21 53.28 50
41 [16] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 8-4 65.13 59.52 22
42 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 8-3 65.10 50.40 63
43 [17] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 4-7 64.68 71.37 2
44 [18] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 6-6 64.52 61.47 17
45 [19] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.89 59.08 24
46 [13] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 8-4 63.44 53.52 47
47 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 11-0 63.31 16.91 368
48 [20] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-3 63.22 45.29 99
49 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 10-2 63.10 38.08 153
50 [21] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.97 55.17 40
51 [22] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-5 62.72 62.88 13
52 [23] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 62.49 62.93 12
53 [24] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 8-3 62.26 47.85 78
54 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 12-0 61.14 32.98 208
55 [25] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 61.05 54.41 43
56 [14] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-6 61.02 57.42 28
57 [1] Macon County 4 – A 9-2 60.99 35.02 189
58 [4] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 11-1 60.65 36.40 175
59 [5] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 10-2 60.64 38.42 145
60 [6] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 8-4 60.63 48.67 73
61 [26] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-4-1 60.56 59.04 25
62 [27] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-6 60.29 62.95 11
63 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 11-1 60.28 35.51 183
64 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 10-2 60.05 28.06 266
65 [5] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 10-2 59.91 32.97 209
66 [7] Cairo 1 – AAAA 11-1 59.32 38.33 148
67 [28] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-6 59.21 63.71 7
68 [15] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 8-4 59.20 47.62 81
69 [8] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-4 59.00 49.35 67
70 [9] Grady 6 – AAAAA 10-2 58.70 33.39 199
71 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 7-5 58.43 54.32 44
72 [6] Crisp County 1 – AAA 12-0 58.40 34.15 193
73 [10] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 11-1 57.96 39.43 136
74 [16] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 57.41 47.48 82
75 [8] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 10-2 57.33 38.12 151
76 [9] Spalding 2 – AAAA 8-4 56.38 47.42 83
77 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 11-0 56.31 21.89 334
78 [17] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 7-5 56.18 50.34 64
79 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 8-4 56.18 49.86 66
80 [7] Lovett 5 – AAA 8-4 55.79 41.66 121
81 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 55.71 59.00 26
82 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 10-1 55.17 29.31 249
83 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 10-1 55.12 26.25 284
84 [18] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 54.84 42.23 119
85 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 11-1 54.33 31.76 225
86 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 11-0 54.30 21.66 339
87 [19] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 53.12 41.66 122
88 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 5-6 52.95 49.91 65
89 [20] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 7-4 52.83 49.33 68
90 [10] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-4 52.66 42.86 113
91 [21] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 5-5 52.36 51.22 60
92 [22] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-5 52.02 48.06 76
93 [13] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-4 51.93 44.85 101
94 [14] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 9-3 51.76 35.30 186
95 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.49 45.77 96
96 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-3 51.47 28.34 263
97 [4] Wesleyan 5 – A 9-2 50.99 26.33 280
98 [5] Tattnall Square 7 – A 11-0 50.94 20.25 353
99 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 50.76 51.40 58
100 [15] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-5 50.53 46.31 91
101 [24] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 50.11 41.59 123
102 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 6-5 50.00 48.13 75
103 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 6-5 49.94 48.76 72
104 [12] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-3 49.15 38.38 147
105 [13] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-2 49.04 31.68 227
106 [3] Manchester 4 – A 10-1 49.00 15.22 375
107 [6] Landmark Christian 5 – A 10-1 48.89 25.45 293
108 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-7 48.74 56.58 32
109 [25] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 48.61 53.30 49
110 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 10-0 48.53 10.41 412
111 [7] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 10-1 48.43 25.18 296
112 [17] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-5 47.82 44.43 104
113 [8] Calvary Day 3 – A 10-0 47.79 15.30 374
114 [14] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-3-1 47.60 35.23 188
115 [15] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-5 47.54 45.90 93
116 [16] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-5 47.21 37.91 156
117 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 8-4 47.09 33.14 206
118 [18] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-8 47.06 56.34 35
119 [26] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 6-5 46.63 42.91 111
120 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 8-3 46.59 36.30 177
121 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-3 46.51 28.68 256
122 [5] Irwin County 2 – A 8-4 46.48 33.31 203
123 [6] Brooks County 1 – AA 8-4 46.42 39.64 134
124 [33] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-7 46.38 69.74 3
125 [7] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-3 46.18 28.40 261
126 [17] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 7-5 46.09 39.65 133
127 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-6 45.90 52.76 52
128 [27] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 45.63 46.79 85
129 [28] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 4-7 45.53 54.45 42
130 [18] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-5 45.45 42.37 117
131 [29] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-5 45.41 40.18 130
132 [30] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 45.34 40.89 126
133 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 8-4 45.24 33.23 205
134 [6] Commerce 8 – A 9-2 45.09 21.22 345
135 [35] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-7 44.99 54.66 41
136 [36] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 44.98 64.71 6
137 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-3 44.97 31.87 223
138 [8] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 9-3 44.88 30.71 239
139 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-7 44.81 52.98 51
140 [20] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 8-3 44.68 31.93 219
141 [21] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-5-1 44.64 45.89 94
142 [21] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-3 44.49 30.27 241
143 [12] Pierce County 2 – AAA 9-3 44.37 31.19 234
144 [22] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-5 43.97 37.75 158
145 [23] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-6 43.80 46.36 90
146 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-4 43.53 36.56 173
147 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 7-5 43.10 39.83 132
148 [7] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 8-2 42.91 23.13 319
149 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 42.75 46.39 89
150 [13] Worth County 1 – AAA 7-5 42.73 38.28 149
151 [9] Chattooga 7 – AA 8-4 42.71 31.88 222
152 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 42.47 39.21 140
153 [24] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 42.47 51.84 57
154 [10] Screven County 4 – AA 11-1 42.28 12.61 392
155 [25] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 42.06 55.63 36
156 [26] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-5 42.05 39.00 141
157 [8] Turner County 2 – A 8-4 41.21 31.74 226
158 [9] Stratford Academy 7 – A 8-4 40.81 29.85 245
159 [11] Vidalia 2 – AA 9-3 40.67 27.94 269
160 [12] Model 7 – AA 7-4 40.44 31.24 233
161 [32] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-8 40.28 55.35 37
162 [27] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-5 40.05 36.60 172
163 [9] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-2 40.04 21.70 338
164 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 40.01 56.47 34
165 [13] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-5 39.94 38.46 144
166 [10] Darlington 6 – A 8-4 39.70 28.46 260
167 [33] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-5 39.32 35.34 185
168 [24] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-4 39.30 24.56 308
169 [25] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-6 39.19 44.65 103
170 [14] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-5 38.96 34.23 191
171 [28] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.84 43.03 109
172 [10] Taylor County 4 – A 10-2 38.81 15.04 379
173 [15] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 8-4 38.71 31.49 230
174 [29] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.71 46.64 87
175 [11] Twiggs County 7 – A 8-4 38.66 29.30 250
176 [14] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-2 38.64 18.60 361
177 [16] Jenkins 3 – AAA 10-2 38.56 17.83 363
178 [15] Washington County 3 – AA 8-4 37.84 30.12 244
179 [34] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 37.56 48.85 71
180 [26] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 37.46 52.70 53
181 [30] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-6 37.32 42.67 114
182 [27] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-9 36.90 50.86 62
183 [17] Savannah 3 – AAA 8-3 36.74 14.03 382
184 [16] Spencer 5 – AA 6-5 36.63 33.94 196
185 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-4 36.54 38.41 146
186 [35] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-5 36.52 36.95 166
187 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 8-4 36.42 27.01 275
188 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 9-3 36.40 22.29 325
189 [17] Dublin 3 – AA 8-3 36.09 27.22 274
190 [31] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 5-6 35.87 37.16 163
191 [18] Dodge County 3 – AA 6-6 35.84 33.36 201
192 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-8 35.77 53.84 46
193 [29] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 35.63 36.71 168
194 [18] Cook 1 – AAA 5-6 35.48 38.54 143
195 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 6-5 35.47 33.99 195
196 [36] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 35.46 39.34 137
197 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-5 35.45 34.03 194
198 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-5-1 35.30 37.29 162
199 [37] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 35.28 26.31 281
200 [19] Bremen 6 – AAA 7-5 34.57 27.65 271
201 [20] Brantley County 2 – AAA 6-4 34.29 30.93 237
202 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 6-5 34.16 30.96 236
203 [21] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-5 34.09 33.30 204
204 [13] Greene County 7 – A 9-3 34.07 22.80 323
205 [33] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-7 33.44 42.90 112
206 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 5-5 33.42 32.76 212
207 [38] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 33.41 43.87 106
208 [39] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 33.35 42.38 116
209 [20] Douglass 6 – AA 8-4 33.32 21.66 340
210 [34] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-7 33.17 43.45 107
211 [13] George Walton Academy 8 – A 8-4 33.00 21.06 346
212 [14] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-4-1 32.95 28.54 258
213 [35] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-5 32.93 30.90 238
214 [14] Savannah Christian 3 – A 7-4 32.81 24.20 311
215 [21] Heard County 5 – AA 7-4 32.64 25.17 297
216 [22] Union County 7 – AAA 8-3 32.59 25.65 291
217 [40] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-8 32.34 55.23 39
218 [41] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 32.16 31.62 228
219 [32] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 32.11 39.26 139
220 [41] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 32.10 52.27 56
221 [42] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 31.78 36.78 167
222 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 6-5 31.78 28.35 262
223 [33] Luella 4 – AAAA 5-6 31.50 36.22 178
224 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 5-4 31.43 27.86 270
225 [23] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-3 31.41 17.47 364
226 [42] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-6-1 31.32 41.49 124
227 [22] Lamar County 5 – AA 6-5 31.21 32.43 215
228 [36] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 3-8 31.14 45.13 100
229 [16] Athens Christian 8 – A 7-4 31.07 20.53 350
230 [37] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 30.96 31.26 232
231 [43] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-7 30.94 42.64 115
232 [38] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 30.73 27.97 268
233 [17] First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-5 30.73 26.08 286
234 [24] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-5 30.52 33.36 200
235 [25] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-5 30.30 29.45 248
236 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.66 26.33 279
237 [44] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-6 29.53 31.27 231
238 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-6 29.33 43.01 110
239 [16] Bowdon 6 – A 6-5 29.09 24.77 303
240 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-7 29.04 40.76 127
241 [27] North Murray 6 – AAA 8-4 29.00 16.89 369
242 [23] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-5 28.88 25.38 295
243 [24] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-3 28.55 21.23 344
244 [35] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-4 28.14 25.88 288
245 [17] Mitchell County 1 – A 9-3 28.07 11.61 400
246 [28] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-6 28.06 38.16 150
247 [18] Aquinas 7 – A 6-5 27.88 29.00 253
248 [29] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 5-6 27.88 28.85 255
249 [18] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-7 27.77 32.77 211
250 [19] Trion 6 – A 6-5 27.38 21.38 343
251 [39] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 4-7 27.37 34.84 190
252 [45] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 27.13 43.04 108
253 [20] Miller County 1 – A 9-3 26.96 14.25 381
254 [21] Pelham 1 – A 9-2 26.77 10.55 409
255 [40] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-7 26.25 37.64 160
256 [41] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-6 26.24 33.09 207
257 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 5-6 26.02 28.62 257
258 [46] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 25.01 51.34 59
259 [47] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-8 24.74 36.33 176
260 [48] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 24.44 40.75 128
261 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-6 24.43 29.27 251
262 [30] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-5 24.39 21.91 333
263 [31] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 24.31 23.54 317
264 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 23.90 40.37 129
265 [25] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-7 23.82 32.14 218
266 [26] Laney 4 – AA 5-6 23.49 21.80 336
267 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 23.37 40.16 131
268 [22] Charlton County 2 – A 3-6 23.25 30.27 242
269 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-6 23.07 29.19 252
270 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-8-1 22.96 49.27 69
271 [33] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-7 22.81 33.31 202
272 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-5 22.69 19.54 356
273 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-5 22.61 25.11 298
274 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-9 22.33 38.01 154
275 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 22.18 35.72 182
276 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-7 22.15 32.35 216
277 [50] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 22.12 17.08 367
278 [45] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 3-7-1 22.11 32.25 217
279 [38] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-7 22.01 31.91 221
280 [23] Terrell County 1 – A 7-4 21.92 14.94 380
281 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 4-6 21.57 31.80 224
282 [29] Therrell 6 – AA 4-6 21.49 25.84 289
283 [24] Marion County 4 – A 7-4 21.28 12.47 394
284 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 20.94 47.87 77
285 [30] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-4-1 20.71 15.09 378
286 [51] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-9 20.04 48.97 70
287 [21] Walker 6 – A 4-7 19.81 26.68 276
288 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 19.63 48.50 74
289 [52] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-7-1 19.47 32.67 213
290 [47] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 19.30 45.72 97
291 [35] Towers 5 – AAA 3-7 19.27 32.89 210
292 [53] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 19.15 36.14 179
293 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-9 18.80 41.22 125
294 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-10 18.73 51.20 61
295 [36] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-6 18.62 24.81 302
296 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-5 18.36 19.34 358
297 [25] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-4 18.30 11.82 398
298 [39] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-7 18.30 31.50 229
299 [31] Banks County 8 – AA 6-5 18.27 15.11 377
300 [40] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-9 18.17 39.49 135
301 [23] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-6 18.00 22.91 322
302 [32] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 17.71 29.55 247
303 [37] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-4 17.48 11.06 404
304 [41] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 17.45 37.79 157
305 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 4-7 17.19 21.98 331
306 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 3-7 16.73 32.48 214
307 [42] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 6-5 16.60 15.13 376
308 [33] Coosa 7 – AA 4-6 16.57 26.26 283
309 [34] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 16.53 24.66 305
310 [43] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-10 16.47 44.22 105
311 [39] East Hall 7 – AAA 3-7 16.01 24.96 300
312 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-7 15.78 23.62 315
313 [35] Early County 1 – AA 1-8-1 15.72 36.65 169
314 [27] Warren County 7 – A 4-6 15.59 21.46 341
315 [36] Temple 5 – AA 6-4 15.52 13.93 384
316 [44] White County 7 – AAAA 1-9 15.39 38.08 152
317 [37] Northeast 3 – AA 2-8 15.37 28.24 264
318 [49] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-10 14.97 46.50 88
319 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-8 14.86 33.92 197
320 [28] Treutlen 3 – A 6-4 14.77 11.03 405
321 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-7 14.61 37.59 161
322 [45] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 4-6 13.76 21.44 342
323 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-6 13.56 24.62 306
324 [29] Crawford County 4 – A 5-4 13.49 12.81 390
325 [41] Long County 2 – AAA 1-6-2 13.25 28.95 254
326 [39] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-7 13.05 27.24 273
327 [30] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-4 12.89 7.66 416
328 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 4-7 12.87 23.46 318
329 [31] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-5 12.47 12.84 388
330 [50] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-10 12.26 39.27 138
331 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-5 12.17 13.86 385
332 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-6 12.06 20.53 349
333 [32] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 11.95 12.33 395
334 [33] Hawkinsville 4 – A 4-6 11.50 21.85 335
335 [34] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-8 11.34 24.99 299
336 [35] Seminole County 1 – A 4-5-1 11.22 11.34 403
337 [40] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-7 11.17 25.79 290
338 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.93 38.62 142
339 [36] Montgomery County 3 – A 4-6 10.65 16.03 372
340 [42] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-10 10.59 36.97 165
341 [47] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-10 10.49 37.72 159
342 [43] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-8 10.43 20.45 351
343 [44] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-8 10.36 21.91 332
344 [45] Islands 3 – AAA 4-7 9.38 19.83 354
345 [37] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-5 9.13 12.00 396
346 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-6 9.10 18.35 362
347 [46] East Jackson 8 – AAA 4-6 8.54 13.35 386
348 [52] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-8 8.35 28.02 267
349 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 3-7 8.32 22.60 324
350 [41] Metter 2 – AA 2-7 8.29 24.21 310
351 [56] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 8.28 57.02 30
352 [42] Monticello 8 – AA 3-8 8.04 26.49 278
353 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 8.03 35.74 181
354 [54] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.93 24.95 301
355 [55] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-9 7.67 28.47 259
356 [38] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-7 7.66 17.42 365
357 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 3-7 7.57 23.87 312
358 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 7.14 36.64 170
359 [43] Albany 1 – AA 0-10 6.82 31.14 235
360 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-8 6.54 36.45 174
361 [48] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-6 6.51 12.65 391
362 [39] Schley County 4 – A 4-6 6.18 11.52 401
363 [49] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-8-1 5.84 26.10 285
364 [44] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-8 5.49 24.56 307
365 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 5.47 20.37 352
366 [45] Josey 4 – AA 4-6 5.40 10.93 406
367 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 5.27 26.01 287
368 [27] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-7 5.11 24.36 309
369 [40] Towns County 8 – A 3-7 5.07 25.45 294
370 [28] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 4-6 5.06 13.96 383
371 [29] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-8 4.70 23.56 316
372 [46] Dade County 7 – AA 3-7 4.50 26.61 277
373 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-9 4.21 27.43 272
374 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 4.06 26.28 282
375 [48] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-7 3.29 17.19 366
376 [41] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-9 2.98 28.08 265
377 [50] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-10 2.01 33.62 198
378 [42] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 3-7 1.95 12.84 389
379 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 1.52 22.15 328
380 [49] Jordan 5 – AA 0-10 1.52 35.28 187
381 [50] Harlem 4 – AA 3-7 1.50 11.83 397
382 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 0.50 22.18 327
383 [51] Butler 4 – AA 3-7 0.46 11.48 402
384 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -0.57 24.67 304
385 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-8 -0.98 19.64 355
386 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 3-7 -1.02 23.03 321
387 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -1.36 0.63 417
388 [44] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -1.94 23.81 313
389 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -2.67 31.92 220
390 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-9 -2.99 35.42 184
391 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -3.03 10.06 413
392 [53] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-9 -3.82 16.45 371
393 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -5.00 34.18 192
394 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -5.21 22.24 326
395 [33] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-9 -5.54 20.64 348
396 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-8 -5.80 19.20 359
397 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-8 -6.36 10.76 407
398 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -7.79 30.62 240
399 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-8 -8.61 11.81 399
400 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 2-8 -9.58 19.41 357
401 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-9 -14.19 20.79 347
402 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 -14.66 10.58 408
403 [46] Claxton 3 – A 0-9 -15.02 30.25 243
404 [47] Greenville 4 – A 1-9 -15.46 23.06 320
405 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -16.88 19.11 360
406 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-9 -17.39 16.77 370
407 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-10 -17.42 15.84 373
408 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -18.78 45.91 92
409 [49] Stewart County 1 – A 2-8 -19.34 10.51 410
410 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 1-9 -20.03 12.56 393
411 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-10 -21.38 8.16 415
412 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-10 -25.06 13.16 387
413 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-10 -25.24 23.68 314
414 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-10 -26.52 22.13 329
415 [51] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-9 -27.70 9.78 414
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-5 -28.47 -15.54 418
417 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -29.19 22.12 330
418 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -29.81 10.49 411
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-4 -49.74 -37.09 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -50.79 -26.52 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 90.27 75.14
2 1 – AAAAAAA 90.25 71.64
3 8 – AAAAAAA 84.95 59.80
4 4 – AAAAAAA 84.53 66.95
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.92 62.53
6 6 – AAAAAAA 77.79 52.79
7 5 – AAAAAA 73.90 53.19
8 7 – AAAAAAA 73.62 45.09
9 5 – AAAA 70.17 47.89
10 4 – AAAAA 70.06 49.46
11 6 – AAAAAA 69.84 50.03
12 5 – AAAAAAA 69.46 53.31
13 7 – AAAAA 68.52 44.94
14 2 – AAAAAA 68.06 48.05
15 2 – AAAAAAA 67.31 48.79
16 4 – AAAAAA 63.46 42.77
17 1 – AAAAA 62.30 46.83
18 2 – AAAA 62.08 43.58
19 5 – AAA 61.94 35.64
20 8 – AAAAA 59.84 33.91
21 7 – AAAA 59.17 39.01
22 3 – AAAA 58.33 21.24
23 3 – AAAAA 57.72 39.57
24 8 – AAAA 57.04 38.06
25 8 – AAAAAA 56.88 39.83
26 1 – AA 56.88 31.59
27 7 – AAAAAA 56.39 37.69
28 1 – AAA 55.57 36.70
29 5 – A 55.25 26.96
30 1 – AAAA 54.71 37.36
31 4 – AAA 54.01 33.59
32 4 – AAAA 53.79 27.92
33 7 – AAA 53.39 28.89
34 2 – AAA 52.37 34.06
35 2 – AAAAA 52.02 26.58
36 5 – AA 51.32 29.56
37 7 – AA 50.90 24.86
38 6 – AAAAA 50.37 30.00
39 2 – A 49.79 27.42
40 6 – AAAA 49.38 27.86
41 2 – AA 47.62 22.88
42 8 – A 45.65 22.58
43 6 – A 45.40 22.22
  6 – Div B – A 49.08 23.79
  6 – Div A – A 41.53 20.67
44 6 – AAA 43.91 21.70
  6 – South – AAA 54.04 32.42
  6 – North – AAA 31.12 9.25
45 4 – A 43.61 15.82
  4 – Div B – A 50.44 25.77
  4 – Div A – A 33.12 1.77
46 3 – AA 43.60 25.30
47 3 – AAAAAA 43.27 27.32
48 7 – A 43.21 27.30
  7 – Div A – A 50.13 30.72
  7 – Div B – A 36.78 24.78
49 6 – AA 42.67 25.92
50 3 – A 42.37 18.40
  3 – Div A – A 46.68 23.20
  3 – Div B – A 35.91 15.66
51 5 – AAAAA 40.10 24.53
52 4 – AA 35.83 10.70
53 8 – AA 35.10 8.47
54 3 – AAA 34.56 10.57
55 8 – AAA 29.83 13.42
56 1 – A 28.98 10.40

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 21.32 89.4% 0.195
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 15.70 82.8% 0.200
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 17.19 84.8% 0.215
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 17.31 85.0% 0.230
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 16.14 83.4% 0.238
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 17.77 85.5% 0.240
08/19 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 13 – 14 15.25 82.1% 0.276
09/02 Jackson Lamar County 10 – 13 14.43 80.9% 0.278
08/26 Heritage (Ringgold) Ringgold 34 – 40 13.53 79.5% 0.278
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 12.56 77.8% 0.278
09/30 Sandy Creek Troup 20 – 28 12.94 78.5% 0.279
11/05 Arabia Mountain Lithonia 18 – 20 14.10 80.4% 0.288
09/23 Commerce Athens Christian 14 – 21 12.57 77.8% 0.289
08/20 Tucker Kell 13 – 20 12.26 77.3% 0.294
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 13.46 79.4% 0.303

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.14 11/25 Grayson Colquitt County 15.60 82.6%
88.75 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 15.95 83.1%
87.66 11/25 Mill Creek McEachern 3.10 57.7%
87.63 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 4.20 60.3%
87.27 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 5.60 63.6%
85.93 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 1.47 53.7%
83.31 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 5.36 63.1%
83.31 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 5.38 63.1%
80.84 09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 8.35 69.7%
79.62 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 9.70 72.5%
79.18 11/18 Lowndes Norcross 57 – 21 3.65 59.0%
78.64 11/25 Mays Tucker 0.58 51.5%
78.52 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 10.46 74.0%
78.38 11/25 Roswell North Cobb 14.95 81.7%
77.85 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 14.77 81.4%

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