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Maxwell playoff projections for Round 2

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.


Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 1 10-1 104.03 81.54 4.24 980,640.07 885,004.10 745,415.67 627,746.99 0.59
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1 11-0 90.25 82.58 3.45 929,694.11 788,200.06 567,706.47 169,204.19 4.91
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 1 11-0 89.18 87.75 2.69 898,256.43 579,422.97 138,919.38 78,047.58 11.81
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 1 11-0 84.78 85.26 2.67 716,059.79 616,355.13 277,120.43 57,921.12 16.26
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1 10-1 85.24 89.04 2.30 830,193.61 372,664.68 68,292.73 32,091.38 30.16
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 1 7-4 83.50 89.98 1.97 806,589.50 103,506.78 43,356.08 18,636.61 52.66
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 2 9-2 76.37 87.39 2.06 806,121.06 174,559.80 68,094.14 7,567.51 131.14
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 2 9-2 77.02 88.20 1.55 283,940.21 202,079.75 53,784.42 6,297.65 157.79
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 2 8-3 69.66 87.37 1.76 613,488.52 126,541.49 20,301.24 1,279.88 780.32
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 3 8-3 70.86 92.36 1.20 169,806.39 27,334.11 1,446.89 274.53 3,641.59
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 2 8-3 70.71 92.82 1.20 193,410.50 8,074.59 1,272.67 238.76 4,187.27
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1 8-3 63.55 86.81 1.45 386,511.48 55,023.64 6,203.09 225.27 4,438.03
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2 6-5 65.92 88.83 1.10 70,305.89 22,841.06 4,605.28 207.82 4,810.83
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 2 7-4 68.89 92.33 1.12 101,743.57 20,578.25 928.17 151.47 6,601.11
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 1 7-4 60.63 87.69 1.21 193,878.94 14,399.08 2,184.92 60.44 16,545.57
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 3 7-4 66.27 92.87 1.02 19,359.93 3,414.52 368.42 48.81 20,485.56

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1 10-1 83.03 69.35 3.54 844,487.00 799,643.09 529,634.87 367,237.22 1.72
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 1 11-0 78.91 70.72 3.16 938,831.29 683,529.25 332,638.39 200,395.03 3.99
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 1 10-1 78.21 73.93 2.49 667,078.28 405,344.73 284,121.27 130,258.90 6.68
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 2 9-2 74.60 72.81 2.56 738,850.01 507,967.60 228,846.37 85,904.25 10.64
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 2 10-1 76.91 75.35 2.18 600,608.22 300,054.07 194,479.16 83,231.54 11.01
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 2 10-1 72.52 75.15 2.13 743,072.56 257,831.44 85,627.17 38,509.23 24.97
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 1 10-1 71.34 75.49 1.67 399,391.78 155,921.88 85,273.49 26,119.61 37.29
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 3 8-2 72.75 77.14 1.57 332,921.72 138,679.32 73,517.76 24,651.66 39.57
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1 10-1 67.09 73.28 1.91 578,836.76 237,775.56 73,227.56 16,710.89 58.84
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 3 9-2 67.60 75.82 1.32 155,513.00 119,249.03 32,988.34 11,122.16 88.91
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 3 6-5 65.40 75.14 1.60 421,163.24 137,823.66 32,766.14 6,597.27 150.58
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 4 8-3 65.69 75.79 1.41 261,149.99 116,433.19 27,768.25 5,714.16 174.00
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 4 6-5 63.39 77.35 1.32 256,927.44 48,338.93 8,872.62 2,244.95 444.44
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1 7-4 55.00 73.46 1.60 544,630.90 47,269.04 5,799.39 755.53 1,322.57
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 3 7-4 54.70 74.77 1.49 455,369.10 33,838.84 3,460.15 439.40 2,274.83
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 2 7-4 53.09 76.84 1.07 61,168.71 10,300.38 979.06 108.20 9,241.51

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 1 11-0 77.16 59.25 4.00 968,629.07 886,117.37 663,486.72 479,257.78 1.09
Buford 8 – AAAAA 1 10-1 71.75 64.26 3.03 801,707.40 599,579.03 429,788.73 195,412.66 4.12
Rome 7 – AAAAA 1 9-2 69.36 64.60 2.85 856,927.28 631,123.09 235,376.80 130,093.98 6.69
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 2 9-2 66.85 66.14 2.39 667,078.28 448,040.26 204,528.24 70,940.72 13.10
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 2 10-1 64.32 67.06 2.05 650,900.54 236,610.87 124,751.17 36,972.31 26.05
Kell 7 – AAAAA 3 9-2 63.20 66.61 2.20 730,271.40 323,757.49 117,801.34 32,448.52 29.82
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 1 7-3 61.29 66.61 2.09 736,333.87 271,340.77 62,080.91 22,693.89 43.06
Grady 6 – AAAAA 1 10-1 58.41 66.92 1.55 332,921.72 161,005.52 49,028.09 9,652.99 102.59
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 2 10-1 56.86 67.73 1.80 686,756.73 84,902.73 23,797.97 6,538.34 151.94
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 3 8-3 59.27 69.18 1.32 198,292.60 80,804.62 30,765.17 6,450.26 154.03
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 1 8-3 56.60 67.38 1.47 349,099.46 83,005.48 30,541.87 5,250.11 189.47
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 1 7-4 51.75 66.84 1.35 269,728.60 67,196.73 12,795.40 1,497.29 666.87
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2 5-5 52.95 69.40 1.20 143,072.72 47,962.89 5,547.09 1,148.49 869.71
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 2 9-2 52.51 69.19 1.32 263,666.13 49,573.24 5,549.20 1,111.10 899.01
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 1 9-2 47.52 67.44 1.34 313,243.27 20,929.28 3,314.16 444.83 2,247.03
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 3 7-4 44.35 68.86 1.04 31,370.93 8,050.62 847.16 86.73 11,529.07

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 1 11-0 86.11 62.74 4.22 975,802.24 828,165.06 778,277.10 640,635.20 0.56
Thomson 3 – AAAA 1 11-0 73.72 62.89 3.71 958,948.11 859,774.56 674,573.48 221,421.79 3.52
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1 10-1 69.75 69.73 2.27 919,974.45 166,083.29 125,287.03 62,694.74 14.95
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 3 8-3 64.72 69.67 2.25 670,401.16 414,589.61 136,843.31 26,147.08 37.25
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 1 10-1 60.33 68.12 2.37 835,208.45 405,779.07 112,709.30 15,981.88 61.57
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 1 9-2 59.55 67.74 2.47 886,149.55 512,137.14 52,622.43 15,011.43 65.62
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 1 9-2 58.75 68.23 2.28 805,181.60 422,963.58 40,690.56 11,019.78 89.75
Cairo 1 – AAAA 1 10-1 56.13 69.95 1.52 329,598.84 150,926.08 32,077.15 3,345.09 297.95
Spalding 2 – AAAA 3 7-4 53.49 70.23 1.58 494,000.29 63,199.89 19,188.61 1,631.55 611.92
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 1 9-1 52.24 69.27 1.59 505,999.71 65,913.10 20,400.02 1,570.22 635.85
Burke County 3 – AAAA 2 9-2 50.63 74.39 1.03 24,197.76 3,664.78 1,074.46 162.10 6,168.10
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 2 7-4 46.05 70.71 1.24 194,818.40 46,349.72 1,278.90 133.18 7,507.62
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 2 7-4 45.59 70.58 1.20 164,791.55 28,705.24 2,606.63 114.84 8,707.06
West Hall 7 – AAAA 3 7-4 43.70 70.58 1.05 41,051.89 11,112.45 1,601.50 59.74 16,737.88
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2 8-3 46.82 74.22 1.08 80,025.55 2,086.87 467.34 51.89 19,270.83
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 3 8-3 40.52 70.67 1.13 113,850.45 18,549.56 302.18 19.50 51,276.90

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 1 10-1 72.56 54.06 3.99 963,980.13 865,930.74 639,379.01 519,562.09 0.92
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 1 9-2 64.01 58.44 2.92 953,425.14 603,633.36 219,339.41 142,761.66 6.00
Calhoun 6 – AAA 1 9-2 59.44 57.33 2.65 799,632.65 466,650.94 298,005.80 88,819.82 10.26
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 2 9-2 59.28 57.50 2.71 880,797.08 459,394.84 283,889.82 83,738.23 10.94
Peach County 4 – AAA 1 10-1 59.24 59.74 2.51 954,609.52 389,767.95 106,736.65 57,498.96 16.39
Lovett 5 – AAA 3 8-3 57.45 58.77 2.18 511,497.97 427,404.66 188,081.96 49,101.95 19.37
Crisp County 1 – AAA 1 11-0 55.50 57.69 2.12 488,502.03 409,801.19 183,406.20 41,771.57 22.94
Liberty County 2 – AAA 1 10-1 52.51 60.70 1.96 805,338.42 114,841.38 32,460.61 12,250.16 80.63
Jackson 4 – AAA 2 8-3 47.09 60.93 1.28 200,367.35 56,640.16 19,412.68 2,296.64 434.42
Pierce County 2 – AAA 2 8-3 41.94 58.04 1.79 646,570.91 122,700.94 19,717.90 1,496.90 667.05
Bremen 6 – AAA 4 7-4 37.39 59.23 1.40 353,429.09 40,093.21 4,117.78 207.20 4,825.33
Worth County 1 – AAA 2 7-4 41.18 63.47 1.05 36,019.87 10,306.37 1,046.55 176.16 5,675.58
Jenkins 3 – AAA 1 10-1 37.79 59.87 1.14 119,202.92 17,314.07 3,367.85 175.81 5,687.10
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 3 8-3 39.80 63.30 1.20 194,661.58 8,921.51 800.53 120.44 8,302.04
Savannah 3 – AAA 2 8-2 35.31 64.21 1.05 46,574.86 4,562.02 184.54 18.97 52,714.87
North Murray 6 – AAA 2 8-3 30.27 64.12 1.05 45,390.48 2,036.67 52.70 3.45 289,672.75

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 1 11-0 69.95 52.45 3.93 995,164.87 833,048.10 652,582.26 447,963.11 1.23
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1 10-1 65.12 55.09 3.18 886,351.17 546,215.07 502,446.20 241,389.49 3.14
Rabun County 8 – AA 1 10-0 61.73 55.47 2.86 907,207.05 421,927.54 376,015.62 151,938.74 5.58
Callaway 5 – AA 1 11-0 60.10 55.98 2.94 836,306.58 743,715.15 247,423.74 115,448.67 7.66
Pepperell 7 – AA 1 9-1 54.82 59.35 2.15 884,729.46 163,102.24 77,971.31 27,515.40 35.34
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1 8-3 43.07 55.35 2.06 635,526.51 373,814.65 47,408.63 5,181.67 191.99
Washington County 3 – AA 1 8-3 40.26 55.64 1.83 541,404.96 260,170.29 26,008.28 2,242.97 444.84
Brooks County 1 – AA 3 8-3 45.28 60.62 1.28 163,693.42 100,256.51 10,044.53 1,934.25 516.00
Rockmart 7 – AA 2 9-2 46.07 61.26 1.15 113,648.83 22,448.99 13,595.10 1,896.06 526.41
Screven County 4 – AA 1 10-1 41.27 58.47 1.86 720,712.78 131,182.76 10,603.90 1,531.69 651.87
Chattooga 7 – AA 3 7-4 40.09 56.79 1.67 458,595.04 195,588.51 16,716.25 1,420.76 702.85
Jefferson County 4 – AA 2 10-1 39.00 56.81 1.55 364,473.49 170,426.55 13,405.55 1,037.06 963.27
Vidalia 2 – AA 2 9-2 40.42 61.01 1.11 92,792.95 9,408.40 4,404.36 385.07 2,595.91
Douglass 6 – AA 2 8-3 33.28 60.05 1.31 279,287.22 24,845.59 860.76 66.36 15,068.98
Dodge County 3 – AA 3 6-5 35.93 62.64 1.12 115,270.54 3,665.78 507.71 48.59 20,580.42
Banks County 8 – AA 2 6-4 18.17 62.40 1.01 4,835.13 183.87 5.80 0.12 8,660,702.60

Class A-Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Macon County 4 – A 1 8-2 59.75 42.31 3.82 902,119.53 765,743.52 658,509.66 497,246.39 1.01
Clinch County 2 – A 2 9-1 52.56 42.68 3.37 897,430.95 694,319.59 533,674.86 242,090.31 3.13
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 5 9-1 46.34 45.99 2.34 628,316.19 503,602.18 142,156.00 66,292.02 14.08
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 3 9-0 44.32 44.85 2.57 791,006.00 521,182.68 197,388.73 57,099.57 16.51
Manchester 4 – A 8 9-1 45.72 48.15 1.98 695,296.67 156,858.19 89,466.11 40,440.11 23.73
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 6 7-2 41.27 46.07 2.21 735,167.34 338,973.56 107,529.83 25,584.41 38.09
Irwin County 2 – A 21 7-4 42.58 48.16 1.71 371,683.81 264,520.48 54,477.72 20,766.10 47.16
Taylor County 4 – A 10 10-1 42.32 48.55 1.72 490,751.06 142,260.51 69,279.43 17,660.76 55.62
Commerce 8 – A 7 8-2 41.20 48.19 1.73 509,248.94 137,557.28 63,350.96 15,002.89 65.65
Twiggs County 7 – A 9 8-3 38.96 50.05 1.37 304,703.33 42,705.09 17,809.65 5,438.10 182.89
Turner County 2 – A 17 8-3 39.03 50.69 1.15 97,880.47 34,693.20 14,326.45 4,394.42 226.56
Pelham 1 – A 4 9-1 32.59 46.29 1.73 568,319.98 144,266.98 15,579.03 3,030.28 329.00
Lincoln County 7 – A 11 7-3-1 32.55 48.14 1.35 264,832.66 73,755.28 11,646.79 1,464.36 681.89
Miller County 1 – A 13 9-2 31.33 47.52 1.53 431,680.02 87,610.36 7,675.38 1,354.43 737.32
Greene County 7 – A 14 8-3 32.50 48.32 1.29 208,994.00 66,088.47 10,395.04 1,301.81 767.16
Mitchell County 1 – A 15 9-2 32.36 49.39 1.14 102,569.05 25,862.62 6,734.37 834.04 1,197.99

Class A-Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Seed Record Rating Draw Avg Wins Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 1 10-0 64.23 45.91 4.04 971,474.04 848,857.02 719,078.79 499,972.66 1.00
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 3 10-0 60.02 49.06 3.48 952,211.40 721,064.51 536,059.59 266,696.11 2.75
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 2 10-0 50.96 50.62 2.71 864,009.65 562,229.69 214,853.70 66,156.30 14.12
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 6 9-1 51.62 53.27 2.32 862,948.71 259,717.68 146,418.67 46,914.57 20.32
Tattnall Square 7 – A 5 10-0 50.50 52.83 2.34 759,145.42 432,937.71 107,260.88 41,333.42 23.19
Calvary Day 3 – A 4 9-0 48.19 51.81 2.46 865,180.35 463,816.94 98,758.30 33,132.37 29.18
Landmark Christian 5 – A 7 9-1 47.89 53.79 2.05 661,055.18 295,625.53 76,762.39 19,452.86 50.41
Wesleyan 5 – A 8 8-2 48.15 54.30 1.91 718,695.49 120,630.87 56,241.16 18,821.27 52.13
Darlington 6 – A 10 8-3 42.70 55.10 1.48 338,944.82 114,111.84 20,243.67 3,564.22 279.57
Stratford Academy 7 – A 12 8-3 40.51 55.25 1.34 240,854.58 83,815.25 9,500.27 1,866.43 534.78
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 9 8-3 40.26 55.87 1.32 281,304.51 25,932.97 7,555.92 1,456.28 685.68
Athens Academy 8 – A 11 9-2 34.71 56.34 1.15 137,051.29 12,389.98 2,284.70 212.82 4,697.82
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 18 6-4 33.96 55.23 1.17 135,990.35 28,032.95 2,398.06 209.58 4,770.54
Savannah Christian 3 – A 13 7-3 31.09 55.12 1.16 134,819.65 19,430.10 996.53 89.72 11,144.55
George Walton Academy 8 – A 14 8-3 31.59 56.34 1.06 47,788.60 6,827.83 979.24 69.69 14,347.84
First Presbyterian 7 – A 17 7-4 30.44 55.92 1.03 28,525.96 4,579.14 608.15 51.69 19,344.01

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