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Maxwell Round 1 Summary: 1-AAAAAA, 5-AAAAAA, 6-AAA roll through first round

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Three regions completed perfect records in the first round of the playoffs, including 1-AAAAAA as it takes over again as the state’s highest rated region.
– Although historically the start of the playoffs is a time of great turbulence in the ratings, the computer picked 99 of the 112 games played, or 88.4 percent. and their are few major changes among each classification’s top teams. This is in large part due to the addition of the AAAAAAA classification, which shrinks the region sizes in all classifications and in turn makes the regular season schedules much more connected.
– The top 15 highest rated match ups now include two upcoming playoff games, Norcross versus Lowndes and Mays versus Lee County. Although some regular season games will probably remain, such as Grayson and McEachern, by the end of the playoffs many will be replaced by playoff games.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.12%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,965 of 2,154 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.39%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.18 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.49

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 10-1 104.03 1 Valdosta 10-1 83.03
2 Roswell 11-0 90.25 2 Dalton 11-0 78.91
3 Mill Creek 11-0 89.18 3 Mays 10-1 78.21
4 McEachern 10-1 85.24 4 Harrison 10-1 76.91
5 Norcross 11-0 84.78 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 74.60
6 Colquitt County 7-4 83.50 6 Lee County 8-2 72.75
7 Lowndes 9-2 77.02 7 Alexander 10-1 72.52
8 North Cobb 9-2 76.37 8 Tucker 10-1 71.34
9 Parkview 8-3 70.86 9 Houston County 7-3 69.05
10 Brookwood 8-3 70.71 10 Northgate 9-2 67.60
11 South Gwinnett 8-3 69.66 11 Glynn Academy 10-1 67.09
12 Cherokee 7-4 68.89 12 Hughes 8-3 65.69
13 Archer 4-7 66.85 13 Allatoona 6-5 65.40
14 North Gwinnett 6-5 66.60 14 Coffee 6-5 63.39
15 Woodstock 7-4 66.27 15 Douglas County 6-4 59.16
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Stockbridge 11-0 77.16 1 Cartersville 11-0 86.11
2 Buford 10-1 71.75 2 Thomson 11-0 73.72
3 Rome 9-2 69.36 3 Woodward Academy 10-1 69.75
4 Woodland (Stockbridge) 9-2 66.85 4 Sandy Creek 8-3 64.72
5 Carrollton 10-1 64.32 5 Jefferson 10-1 60.33
6 Kell 9-2 63.20 6 Mary Persons 9-2 59.55
7 Ware County 7-3 61.29 7 Blessed Trinity 9-2 58.75
8 Jones County 8-3 59.27 8 Cairo 10-1 56.13
9 Grady 10-1 58.41 9 Marist 7-4 54.26
10 Griffin 10-1 56.86 10 Spalding 7-4 53.49
11 Thomas County Central 8-3 56.60 11 Ridgeland 9-1 52.24
12 Bainbridge 5-5 52.95 12 Burke County 9-2 50.63
13 Loganville 9-2 52.51 13 Troup 8-3 50.06
14 Starr’s Mill 7-4 51.75 14 Cedartown 5-5 48.55
15 Locust Grove 6-4 51.45 15 Eastside 7-3-1 47.26
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 10-1 72.56 1 Benedictine 11-0 69.95
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 9-2 64.01 2 Fitzgerald 10-1 65.12
3 Calhoun 9-2 59.44 3 Rabun County 10-0 61.73
4 Cedar Grove 9-2 59.28 4 Callaway 11-0 60.10
5 Peach County 10-1 59.24 5 Pepperell 9-1 54.82
6 Lovett 8-3 57.45 6 Rockmart 9-2 46.07
7 Crisp County 11-0 55.50 7 Brooks County 8-3 45.28
8 Liberty County 10-1 52.51 8 Hapeville Charter 8-3 43.07
9 Pace Academy 6-5 50.35 9 Screven County 10-1 41.27
10 Jackson 8-3 47.09 10 Vidalia 9-2 40.42
11 Dawson County 7-3 45.34 11 Model 7-4 40.33
12 Pierce County 8-3 41.94 12 Washington County 8-3 40.26
13 Worth County 7-4 41.18 13 Chattooga 7-4 40.09
14 Sonoraville 8-3 39.80 14 Thomasville 5-5 39.21
15 Westside (Macon) 6-5 38.15 15 Jefferson County 10-1 39.00
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 8-2 59.75 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 10-0 64.23
2 Clinch County 9-1 52.56 2 Fellowship Christian 10-0 60.02
3 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-1 46.34 3 Mount Paran Christian 9-1 51.62
4 Manchester 9-1 45.72 4 Prince Avenue Christian 10-0 50.96
5 Emanuel County Institute 9-0 44.32 5 Tattnall Square 10-0 50.50
6 Irwin County 7-4 42.58 6 Calvary Day 9-0 48.19
7 Taylor County 10-1 42.32 7 Wesleyan 8-2 48.15
8 McIntosh County Academy 7-2 41.27 8 Landmark Christian 9-1 47.89
9 Commerce 8-2 41.20 9 Darlington 8-3 42.70
10 Turner County 8-3 39.03 10 Stratford Academy 8-3 40.51
11 Twiggs County 8-3 38.96 11 Pinecrest Academy 8-3 40.26
12 Dooly County 6-5 33.84 12 Athens Academy 9-2 34.71
13 Bowdon 6-5 32.77 13 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-4 33.96
14 Pelham 9-1 32.59 14 George Walton Academy 8-3 31.59
15 Lincoln County 7-3-1 32.55 15 Savannah Christian 7-3 31.09

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 10-1 104.03 61.38 15
2 [2] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 11-0 90.25 62.99 11
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 11-0 89.18 56.20 36
4 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 11-0 86.11 48.05 73
5 [4] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 10-1 85.24 59.53 24
6 [5] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 11-0 84.78 51.49 60
7 [6] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 7-4 83.50 73.21 2
8 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 10-1 83.03 64.86 7
9 [2] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 11-0 78.91 47.54 76
10 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 10-1 78.21 55.25 40
11 [1] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 11-0 77.16 47.31 79
12 [7] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 9-2 77.02 60.49 20
13 [4] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 10-1 76.91 52.39 54
14 [8] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 9-2 76.37 61.57 14
15 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 9-2 74.60 54.49 44
16 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 11-0 73.72 27.04 268
17 [6] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 8-2 72.75 56.96 33
18 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 10-1 72.56 36.02 172
19 [7] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 10-1 72.52 52.57 53
20 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 10-1 71.75 33.88 191
21 [8] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 10-1 71.34 40.28 124
22 [9] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 8-3 70.86 54.85 42
23 [10] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 8-3 70.71 58.65 26
24 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 11-0 69.95 21.80 331
25 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 10-1 69.75 35.97 174
26 [11] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 8-3 69.66 60.50 18
27 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 9-2 69.36 39.72 128
28 [9] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 69.05 59.93 23
29 [12] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 7-4 68.89 62.33 12
30 [10] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 9-2 67.60 52.06 55
31 [11] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 10-1 67.09 41.77 119
32 [13] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 4-7 66.85 73.44 1
33 [4] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 9-2 66.85 43.03 111
34 [14] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 66.60 61.59 13
35 [15] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 7-4 66.27 60.50 19
36 [16] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-4 65.95 58.07 29
37 [17] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 6-5 65.92 60.23 21
38 [12] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 8-3 65.69 51.87 59
39 [13] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 6-5 65.40 58.22 28
40 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 10-1 65.12 36.12 170
41 [18] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-3 65.06 46.93 81
42 [19] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 64.89 57.11 32
43 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 8-3 64.72 48.34 69
44 [20] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-5 64.71 65.05 6
45 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 10-1 64.32 40.16 125
46 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 10-0 64.23 24.33 305
47 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 9-2 64.01 39.19 130
48 [21] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 8-3 63.55 53.17 49
49 [14] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 6-5 63.39 60.56 17
50 [22] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-5 63.23 63.31 9
51 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 9-2 63.20 46.10 90
52 [23] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 62.89 56.04 37
53 [24] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-6 62.81 63.27 10
54 [25] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-4-1 61.75 59.95 22
55 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 10-0 61.73 14.32 383
56 [26] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 8-3 61.70 47.64 75
57 [27] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-6 61.48 64.15 8
58 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 7-3 61.29 48.22 70
59 [28] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-6 60.64 65.43 5
60 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 7-4 60.63 54.20 46
61 [5] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 10-1 60.33 36.30 169
62 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 11-0 60.10 31.36 218
63 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 10-0 60.02 21.69 332
64 [1] Macon County 4 – A 8-2 59.75 33.54 193
65 [6] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 9-2 59.55 37.66 149
66 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 9-2 59.44 26.66 270
67 [4] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 9-2 59.28 31.66 214
68 [8] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 8-3 59.27 46.50 86
69 [5] Peach County 4 – AAA 10-1 59.24 35.84 176
70 [15] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 59.16 48.65 67
71 [7] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 9-2 58.75 37.96 146
72 [9] Grady 6 – AAAAA 10-1 58.41 30.77 230
73 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-6 57.61 60.98 16
74 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 8-3 57.45 39.05 132
75 [10] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 10-1 56.86 38.09 142
76 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 8-3 56.60 47.07 80
77 [16] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 56.39 43.61 106
78 [8] Cairo 1 – AAAA 10-1 56.13 35.65 178
79 [7] Crisp County 1 – AAA 11-0 55.50 31.32 219
80 [17] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 55.00 48.57 68
81 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 9-1 54.82 28.46 249
82 [18] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 54.70 44.86 98
83 [19] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 8-3 54.66 43.10 110
84 [9] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-4 54.26 44.21 103
85 [20] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 5-5 54.08 52.86 51
86 [21] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 7-4 53.73 47.71 74
87 [10] Spalding 2 – AAAA 7-4 53.49 45.75 91
88 [22] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 7-4 53.09 45.20 95
89 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 5-5 52.95 46.26 88
90 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 9-1 52.56 24.45 302
91 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 10-1 52.51 29.83 238
92 [13] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 9-2 52.51 33.34 195
93 [11] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 9-1 52.24 30.35 234
94 [23] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-4 51.80 43.11 109
95 [14] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 7-4 51.75 44.80 99
96 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 9-1 51.62 25.50 287
97 [15] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-4 51.45 44.38 102
98 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 51.28 51.97 57
99 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 10-0 50.96 19.27 351
100 [24] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 50.92 55.62 38
101 [12] Burke County 3 – AAAA 9-2 50.63 24.92 293
102 [5] Tattnall Square 7 – A 10-0 50.50 17.30 363
103 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 6-5 50.35 49.14 65
104 [25] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 7-4 50.17 46.91 82
105 [13] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-3 50.06 39.15 131
106 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-7 49.41 57.23 31
107 [16] Ola 4 – AAAAA 6-5 49.29 47.48 77
108 [14] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-5 48.55 46.74 85
109 [26] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 6-5 48.22 44.46 101
110 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 9-0 48.19 11.69 398
111 [7] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-2 48.15 24.65 301
112 [8] Landmark Christian 5 – A 9-1 47.89 23.39 315
113 [27] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 4-7 47.86 56.84 35
114 [28] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 47.59 42.87 112
115 [33] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-6 47.59 54.39 45
116 [17] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 9-2 47.52 25.89 281
117 [18] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-5 47.42 44.04 104
118 [34] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-7 47.29 57.49 30
119 [15] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-3-1 47.26 35.03 183
120 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 8-3 47.09 30.04 236
121 [29] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 47.06 48.19 71
122 [16] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 8-3 46.82 31.19 220
123 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 8-3 46.62 36.32 168
124 [3] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-1 46.34 20.78 343
125 [20] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-8 46.32 55.29 39
126 [35] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 46.31 65.57 4
127 [6] Rockmart 7 – AA 9-2 46.07 24.70 299
128 [17] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 7-4 46.05 34.90 185
129 [4] Manchester 4 – A 9-1 45.72 11.94 396
130 [18] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-5-1 45.63 46.86 83
131 [19] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 7-4 45.59 36.73 162
132 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-3 45.34 32.20 210
133 [20] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 8-3 45.32 32.68 205
134 [7] Brooks County 1 – AA 8-3 45.28 36.02 171
135 [36] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-7 44.97 52.76 52
136 [21] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-3 44.69 30.37 233
137 [22] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 7-4 44.35 35.49 180
138 [5] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 9-0 44.32 7.91 415
139 [37] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-7 44.28 66.32 3
140 [21] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-5 44.25 41.24 120
141 [22] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-4 44.13 37.18 158
142 [23] West Hall 7 – AAAA 7-4 43.70 37.30 156
143 [23] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-6 43.51 46.15 89
144 [30] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-5 43.34 38.21 140
145 [8] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 8-3 43.07 29.29 242
146 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-6 42.91 46.39 87
147 [9] Darlington 6 – A 8-3 42.70 28.42 251
148 [6] Irwin County 2 – A 7-4 42.58 30.67 232
149 [7] Taylor County 4 – A 10-1 42.32 13.05 390
150 [12] Pierce County 2 – AAA 8-3 41.94 29.64 240
151 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 41.72 58.73 25
152 [24] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-5 41.71 38.55 136
153 [25] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 41.68 50.75 63
154 [26] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 41.57 54.88 41
155 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 10-1 41.27 9.77 412
156 [8] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 7-2 41.27 20.36 347
157 [9] Commerce 8 – A 8-2 41.20 18.09 359
158 [13] Worth County 1 – AAA 7-4 41.18 34.96 184
159 [24] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 8-3 40.52 22.29 326
160 [10] Stratford Academy 7 – A 8-3 40.51 27.23 265
161 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-4 40.51 37.42 154
162 [10] Vidalia 2 – AA 9-2 40.42 24.78 296
163 [11] Model 7 – AA 7-4 40.33 31.60 215
164 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 8-3 40.26 25.80 283
165 [12] Washington County 3 – AA 8-3 40.26 28.52 247
166 [13] Chattooga 7 – AA 7-4 40.09 31.05 225
167 [27] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-5 40.00 36.53 165
168 [14] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 8-3 39.80 30.01 237
169 [14] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-5 39.21 37.64 150
170 [10] Turner County 2 – A 8-3 39.03 27.98 256
171 [15] Jefferson County 4 – AA 10-1 39.00 15.62 371
172 [32] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-5 39.00 35.09 182
173 [11] Twiggs County 7 – A 8-3 38.96 26.52 271
174 [28] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.42 42.40 114
175 [15] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-5 38.15 33.48 194
176 [25] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-9 38.08 51.93 58
177 [29] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-6 38.06 45.59 93
178 [26] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-6 38.03 43.36 108
179 [27] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 38.00 53.24 47
180 [33] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-8 37.91 52.00 56
181 [34] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-5 37.82 38.24 139
182 [16] Jenkins 3 – AAA 10-1 37.79 13.85 386
183 [17] Bremen 6 – AAA 7-4 37.39 27.45 262
184 [28] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-6 37.01 38.02 145
185 [30] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-6 36.99 42.14 118
186 [35] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-6 36.71 40.64 122
187 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-8 36.61 54.64 43
188 [16] Dublin 3 – AA 8-3 36.10 27.00 269
189 [17] Spencer 5 – AA 6-5 35.99 33.30 196
190 [18] Dodge County 3 – AA 6-5 35.93 31.18 221
191 [31] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 5-6 35.93 37.21 157
192 [36] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 35.73 46.79 84
193 [29] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-4 35.54 37.47 152
194 [37] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-4 35.42 26.32 276
195 [18] Savannah 3 – AAA 8-2 35.31 9.08 413
196 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-5-1 35.12 37.13 160
197 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 6-5 34.95 33.58 192
198 [38] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 34.72 45.24 94
199 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 9-2 34.71 18.94 353
200 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-5 34.37 32.98 201
201 [19] Cook 1 – AAA 5-6 34.29 37.32 155
202 [13] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 6-4 33.96 27.05 267
203 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 6-5 33.84 30.71 231
204 [20] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-5 33.52 32.76 204
205 [39] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 33.34 32.77 202
206 [20] Douglass 6 – AA 8-3 33.28 19.09 352
207 [33] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-7 33.21 42.31 116
208 [21] Union County 7 – AAA 8-3 33.06 26.19 278
209 [40] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-8 33.03 56.86 34
210 [34] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-5 32.93 30.88 227
211 [22] Brantley County 2 – AAA 6-4 32.90 29.60 241
212 [21] Heard County 5 – AA 7-4 32.89 25.35 290
213 [13] Bowdon 6 – A 6-5 32.77 28.17 255
214 [41] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 32.74 53.24 48
215 [42] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 32.73 37.89 147
216 [41] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-7 32.62 44.86 97
217 [14] Pelham 1 – A 9-1 32.59 10.90 405
218 [15] Lincoln County 7 – A 7-3-1 32.55 26.21 277
219 [16] Greene County 7 – A 8-3 32.50 21.84 330
220 [35] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-7 32.47 42.77 113
221 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 5-5 32.38 31.69 213
222 [17] Mitchell County 1 – A 9-2 32.36 11.95 395
223 [23] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-3 31.94 17.86 361
224 [42] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 31.68 40.11 126
225 [14] George Walton Academy 8 – A 8-3 31.59 16.94 365
226 [18] Miller County 1 – A 9-2 31.33 14.61 382
227 [15] Savannah Christian 3 – A 7-3 31.09 20.47 345
228 [24] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-5 31.05 30.23 235
229 [32] Luella 4 – AAAA 5-6 30.99 35.58 179
230 [33] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 30.99 38.08 143
231 [22] Lamar County 5 – AA 6-5 30.92 32.20 209
232 [36] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 5-6 30.92 31.16 223
233 [37] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-5 30.69 27.91 257
234 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-6 30.65 44.64 100
235 [19] Trion 6 – A 6-5 30.58 24.22 306
236 [16] First Presbyterian 7 – A 7-4 30.44 23.15 319
237 [25] North Murray 6 – AAA 8-3 30.27 15.03 379
238 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 7-4 30.25 19.72 349
239 [43] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-6-1 29.80 39.48 129
240 [38] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 3-8 29.68 43.43 107
241 [20] Telfair County 2 – A 5-4 29.64 26.16 279
242 [26] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-5 29.32 32.20 211
243 [44] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-6 29.15 30.84 228
244 [27] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.09 25.78 284
245 [34] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-4 28.74 26.43 274
246 [23] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-3 28.21 21.07 337
247 [24] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-5 28.20 24.68 300
248 [35] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-7 28.18 39.81 127
249 [39] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 4-7 28.07 35.47 181
250 [18] Aquinas 7 – A 6-5 27.36 28.43 250
251 [21] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-7 27.35 32.42 207
252 [28] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-6 27.12 37.01 161
253 [40] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-7 26.90 38.17 141
254 [29] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 5-6 26.61 27.61 259
255 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 5-6 26.07 28.67 246
256 [41] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-6 25.82 32.66 206
257 [45] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 25.81 41.17 121
258 [30] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 25.69 24.80 295
259 [46] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 25.68 42.25 117
260 [22] Terrell County 1 – A 7-4 25.35 18.45 356
261 [47] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 25.35 52.90 50
262 [48] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-8 24.26 35.75 177
263 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-6 24.22 29.03 244
264 [31] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-7 23.99 34.49 189
265 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-6 23.72 29.82 239
266 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 23.50 40.57 123
267 [25] Laney 4 – AA 5-6 23.24 21.55 334
268 [26] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-7 23.22 31.47 217
269 [33] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-5 23.17 20.68 344
270 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-8-1 22.98 48.94 66
271 [37] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-7 22.83 32.77 203
272 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 22.67 38.58 135
273 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-5 22.64 19.66 350
274 [38] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-5 22.37 24.85 294
275 [23] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-4 22.33 15.59 372
276 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 22.18 49.57 64
277 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-7 22.07 32.29 208
278 [50] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 21.89 16.85 368
279 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-9 21.84 37.17 159
280 [24] Charlton County 2 – A 3-6 21.53 28.35 252
281 [51] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-9 21.47 50.92 62
282 [25] Marion County 4 – A 7-4 21.44 12.99 391
283 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 4-6 21.31 31.17 222
284 [21] Walker 6 – A 4-7 21.28 28.22 254
285 [34] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-8 21.23 34.53 187
286 [29] Therrell 6 – AA 4-6 21.12 25.41 289
287 [45] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 3-7-1 20.85 30.84 229
288 [30] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-4-1 20.74 15.20 376
289 [52] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-7-1 20.44 33.89 190
290 [53] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 20.21 37.42 153
291 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.82 42.38 115
292 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-10 19.76 51.49 61
293 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 19.39 48.13 72
294 [35] Towers 5 – AAA 3-7 19.35 33.09 200
295 [36] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-6 19.29 25.47 288
296 [37] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-4 19.08 12.64 393
297 [39] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-7 18.25 31.58 216
298 [31] Banks County 8 – AA 6-4 18.17 11.11 403
299 [47] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-10 17.98 44.02 105
300 [32] Coosa 7 – AA 4-6 17.74 27.32 264
301 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 4-7 17.73 22.56 323
302 [40] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-9 17.50 38.67 134
303 [33] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 17.38 29.15 243
304 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-5 17.28 18.29 357
305 [23] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-6 16.94 21.67 333
306 [39] East Hall 7 – AAA 3-7 16.73 25.71 285
307 [41] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-10 16.63 45.01 96
308 [42] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 16.51 36.63 163
309 [43] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 6-5 16.37 14.89 380
310 [34] Early County 1 – AA 1-8-1 16.28 36.00 173
311 [35] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 16.22 24.43 304
312 [44] White County 7 – AAAA 1-9 16.15 38.83 133
313 [36] Temple 5 – AA 6-4 15.85 14.30 384
314 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-7 15.63 23.52 313
315 [26] Atkinson County 2 – A 3-7 15.29 30.92 226
316 [37] Northeast 3 – AA 2-8 15.18 28.28 253
317 [49] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-10 15.06 45.73 92
318 [27] Warren County 7 – A 4-6 15.06 20.83 342
319 [28] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-5 14.73 15.14 378
320 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-7 14.61 37.64 151
321 [29] Seminole County 1 – A 4-5-1 14.59 14.62 381
322 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-8 14.26 33.20 199
323 [30] Treutlen 3 – A 6-4 13.86 10.17 409
324 [31] Crawford County 4 – A 5-4 13.81 13.13 389
325 [45] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-5 13.76 15.47 373
326 [46] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 4-6 13.68 21.38 336
327 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 4-7 13.19 23.94 310
328 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-6 12.89 23.87 311
329 [39] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-7 12.40 26.50 273
330 [41] Long County 2 – AAA 1-6-2 12.01 27.54 260
331 [32] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-4 11.98 6.92 416
332 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-6 11.96 20.39 346
333 [33] Hawkinsville 4 – A 4-6 11.43 21.85 329
334 [34] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 11.18 11.56 401
335 [47] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-10 11.13 38.31 138
336 [50] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-10 11.04 37.76 148
337 [42] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-8 10.99 21.01 338
338 [35] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-8 10.96 24.73 297
339 [43] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-8 10.88 22.50 324
340 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.54 38.45 137
341 [40] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-7 10.40 24.95 292
342 [36] Montgomery County 3 – A 4-6 9.93 15.22 375
343 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-10 9.88 36.44 166
344 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-6 8.88 18.11 358
345 [45] East Jackson 8 – AAA 4-6 8.87 13.54 387
346 [56] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 8.66 58.49 27
347 [46] Haralson County 6 – AAA 3-7 8.63 25.51 286
348 [47] Islands 3 – AAA 4-7 8.29 18.70 354
349 [37] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-5 8.23 11.06 404
350 [52] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-8 8.16 27.80 258
351 [53] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 2-8 8.00 25.13 291
352 [54] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 7.96 35.95 175
353 [41] Monticello 8 – AA 3-8 7.86 25.87 282
354 [55] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-9 7.71 28.49 248
355 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 7.67 38.06 144
356 [42] Metter 2 – AA 2-7 7.59 23.26 316
357 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 3-7 7.54 21.41 335
358 [43] Albany 1 – AA 0-10 7.38 31.87 212
359 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 7.25 22.38 325
360 [38] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-7 7.19 16.91 366
361 [44] Dade County 7 – AA 3-7 6.77 27.47 261
362 [39] Schley County 4 – A 4-6 6.55 11.90 397
363 [48] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-8-1 6.28 26.51 272
364 [27] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 4-6 6.22 15.42 374
365 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-8 6.15 36.43 167
366 [49] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-6 5.51 11.62 399
367 [28] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-7 5.44 24.12 308
368 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 5.23 26.09 280
369 [45] Josey 4 – AA 4-6 5.10 10.65 406
370 [46] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-8 5.05 24.44 303
371 [51] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 4.94 27.06 266
372 [40] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 3-7 4.94 16.14 370
373 [29] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-8 4.34 23.20 317
374 [41] Towns County 8 – A 3-7 4.25 23.99 309
375 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-9 3.82 27.37 263
376 [48] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-7 3.08 16.99 364
377 [42] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-9 2.03 26.40 275
378 [50] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-10 1.85 33.28 197
379 [49] Jordan 5 – AA 0-10 1.65 34.50 188
380 [50] Harlem 4 – AA 3-7 1.28 11.57 400
381 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 0.78 20.84 341
382 [51] Butler 4 – AA 3-7 0.22 11.22 402
383 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 0.22 21.87 328
384 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 3-7 0.05 24.70 298
385 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -1.36 33.25 198
386 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -1.64 0.31 417
387 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -1.69 23.16 318
388 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-8 -1.95 18.54 355
389 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-9 -2.67 36.57 164
390 [44] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -2.82 22.56 322
391 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -3.06 9.99 410
392 [53] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-9 -3.88 16.19 369
393 [32] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-9 -4.03 23.07 321
394 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-8 -4.15 19.97 348
395 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -5.01 34.55 186
396 [33] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -5.98 20.92 340
397 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-8 -6.15 15.16 377
398 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-8 -7.31 9.86 411
399 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -7.53 31.13 224
400 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 2-8 -8.72 20.94 339
401 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-9 -12.65 22.23 327
402 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 -14.91 10.33 408
403 [46] Greenville 4 – A 1-9 -15.35 24.21 307
404 [47] Claxton 3 – A 0-9 -15.83 28.74 245
405 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-10 -16.37 17.77 362
406 [48] Stewart County 1 – A 2-8 -17.17 14.22 385
407 [49] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-9 -17.28 16.89 367
408 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -17.83 18.07 360
409 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -18.44 47.44 78
410 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 1-9 -19.92 12.63 394
411 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-10 -21.16 8.22 414
412 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-10 -24.76 23.09 320
413 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-10 -25.34 12.83 392
414 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-10 -25.52 23.39 314
415 [51] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-9 -25.55 13.48 388
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-5 -27.38 -14.77 418
417 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -27.63 23.60 312
418 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -29.58 10.34 407
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-4 -48.76 -35.85 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -49.94 -25.83 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 87.65 72.51
2 8 – AAAAAAA 87.20 62.04
3 1 – AAAAAAA 86.88 68.60
4 4 – AAAAAAA 85.11 67.70
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.96 63.01
6 6 – AAAAAAA 78.98 54.56
7 7 – AAAAAAA 77.62 47.29
8 5 – AAAAAA 76.10 55.20
9 6 – AAAAAA 73.32 52.73
10 5 – AAAA 72.32 49.21
11 5 – AAAAAAA 71.38 55.19
12 4 – AAAAA 69.62 49.04
13 2 – AAAAAAA 66.35 48.56
14 7 – AAAAA 65.65 43.88
15 2 – AAAAAA 64.14 45.58
16 5 – AAA 62.50 35.98
17 1 – AAAAA 62.19 46.57
18 2 – AAAA 60.59 42.36
19 7 – AAAA 60.44 40.02
20 4 – AAAAAA 59.50 40.37
21 8 – AAAAA 59.38 34.45
22 8 – AAAAAA 58.93 41.50
23 7 – AAAAAA 57.90 39.07
24 3 – AAAA 57.82 21.04
25 3 – AAAAA 57.64 39.47
26 8 – AAAA 57.44 38.73
27 1 – AA 55.69 31.20
28 7 – AAA 54.41 29.55
29 5 – A 53.63 26.61
30 1 – AAA 53.63 35.34
31 4 – AAAA 53.45 27.65
32 4 – AAA 53.42 33.02
33 1 – AAAA 53.13 36.15
34 6 – AAAA 51.31 29.49
35 5 – AA 50.84 29.43
36 2 – AAA 50.59 32.53
37 6 – AAAAA 50.35 30.00
38 7 – AA 50.26 25.10
39 2 – AAAAA 49.54 25.19
40 6 – A 48.98 24.93
  6 – Div B – A 52.25 25.96
  6 – Div A – A 45.58 23.92
41 2 – A 47.20 25.47
42 2 – AA 46.56 22.22
43 6 – AAA 45.21 23.14
  6 – South – AAA 54.79 33.93
  6 – North – AAA 32.51 10.72
44 3 – AA 44.07 25.47
45 4 – A 43.51 16.05
  4 – Div B – A 51.13 26.39
  4 – Div A – A 32.19 1.90
46 8 – A 43.41 21.25
47 3 – AAAAAA 43.05 27.07
48 7 – A 42.77 26.83
  7 – Div A – A 49.93 30.53
  7 – Div B – A 36.07 24.12
49 6 – AA 42.00 25.49
50 3 – A 40.80 17.35
  3 – Div A – A 45.79 22.02
  3 – Div B – A 34.01 14.72
51 5 – AAAAA 40.33 24.56
52 4 – AA 35.55 10.45
53 8 – AA 34.85 8.40
54 3 – AAA 33.45 9.51
55 1 – A 33.21 14.09
56 8 – AAA 30.33 13.91

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 20.77 88.9% 0.201
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 15.12 81.9% 0.209
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 17.63 85.4% 0.226
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 16.24 83.5% 0.228
09/30 Sandy Creek Troup 20 – 28 16.15 83.4% 0.230
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 15.87 83.0% 0.242
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 14.03 80.3% 0.254
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 16.47 83.8% 0.258
11/05 Arabia Mountain Lithonia 18 – 20 15.10 81.9% 0.273
09/02 Jackson Lamar County 10 – 13 14.68 81.3% 0.274
08/19 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 13 – 14 15.13 82.0% 0.278
08/26 Heritage (Ringgold) Ringgold 34 – 40 13.34 79.1% 0.281
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 – 21 13.03 78.6% 0.282
10/21 Ridgeland Pickens 34 – 35 13.74 79.8% 0.299
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 13.65 79.7% 0.300

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
88.25 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 17.30 84.9%
85.54 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 5.69 63.8%
85.23 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 8.25 69.5%
83.24 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 1.03 52.6%
78.84 11/18 Norcross Lowndes 9.25 71.6%
78.72 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 7.97 68.9%
78.65 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 7.50 67.9%
78.26 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 10.36 73.8%
77.66 08/27 Mays Stockbridge 34 – 35 1.05 52.6%
77.61 10/21 Dalton Harrison 31 – 14 3.50 58.7%
76.54 09/02 Harrison North Cobb 25 – 13 2.03 55.1%
76.46 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 9.93 73.0%
76.03 10/21 Valdosta Lee County 27 – 7 8.79 70.7%
74.30 11/18 Mays Lee County 6.95 66.7%
74.24 09/30 Norcross Parkview 38 – 15 12.43 77.6%

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