Maxwell Round 1 Projections

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Nov 11

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
68.45 AAAAAAA Colquitt County 84.8% 17 North Paulding AAAAAAA
68.22 AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 57.9% 3 North Gwinnett AAAAAAA
67.78 AAAAAAA North Cobb 75.4% 11 Tift County AAAAAAA
67.66 AAAAAAA Parkview 56.1% 3 South Forsyth AAAAAAA
66.31 AAAAAAA Archer 58.6% 4 Peachtree Ridge AAAAAAA
64.79 AAAAAAA McEachern 90.7% 23 Lassiter AAAAAAA
64.67 AAAAAAA Brookwood 71.3% 9 West Forsyth AAAAAAA
64.24 AAAAAAA Lowndes 81.7% 15 Hillgrove AAAAAAA
64.22 AAAAAAA Grayson 98.4% 37 Mountain View AAAAAAA
63.78 AAAAAAA Woodstock 56.3% 3 East Coweta AAAAAAA
62.71 AAAAAAA Etowah 52.7% 1 Westlake AAAAAAA
62.53 AAAAAAA Mill Creek 94.2% 27 Newton AAAAAAA
60.08 AAAAAA Northgate 69.6% 9 Centennial AAAAAA
59.02 AAAAAA Hughes 63.4% 6 Johns Creek AAAAAA
57.85 AAAAAA Allatoona 69.9% 9 Lanier AAAAAA
57.47 AAAAAAA Norcross 95.5% 30 Milton AAAAAAA
55.69 AAAA Sandy Creek 77.1% 12 Marist AAAA
52.73 AAAAAAA Cherokee 86.9% 19 Wheeler AAAAAAA
52.06 AAAAAA Alexander 90.7% 23 Alpharetta AAAAAA
51.39 AAAAA Ware County 79.8% 14 Ola AAAAA
51.07 AAAAAA Dacula 61.0% 5 Sequoyah AAAAAA
50.83 AAAA Blessed Trinity 70.5% 9 Chapel Hill AAAA
50.83 AAAA Eastside 51.7% 1 Spalding AAAA
50.47 AAAAAA Effingham County 60.9% 5 Stephenson AAAAAA
50.44 AAAAAAA Lambert 78.4% 13 Central Gwinnett AAAAAAA
50.39 AAAAA Bainbridge 56.6% 3 Whitewater AAAAA
48.42 AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 92.1% 24 Pace Academy AAA
48.39 AAAAA Griffin 77.5% 13 Warner Robins AAAAA
48.34 AAAAAA Mays 95.6% 30 Cambridge AAAAAA
47.54 AAA Lovett 67.4% 7 Dawson County AAA
46.63 AAAAA Starr’s Mill 70.0% 9 Veterans AAAAA
45.69 AAAAAA Harrison 96.5% 32 Gainesville AAAAAA
44.50 AAAA Woodward Academy 93.4% 26 Upson-Lee AAAA
44.22 AAAAA Thomas County Central 83.7% 16 Riverdale AAAAA
43.97 AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 71.2% 9 Clarke Central AAAAA
42.82 AAAAAA Lovejoy 74.1% 11 Richmond Hill AAAAAA
42.54 AAAA Oconee County 66.7% 7 Northwest Whitfield AAAA
42.00 AAAAAAA Roswell 99.3% 40 Pebblebrook AAAAAAA
41.73 AAAA Ridgeland 72.0% 10 St. Pius X AAAA
41.42 AAAAAA Coffee 90.9% 23 Heritage (Conyers) AAAAAA
41.38 AA Pepperell 78.2% 13 Spencer AA
41.02 AAAAA Arabia Mountain 65.4% 7 Villa Rica AAAAA
40.25 AAAA Troup 87.8% 20 West Hall AAAA
40.03 AAAA Thomson 97.3% 34 Americus-Sumter AAAA
39.98 AAAAA Loganville 83.3% 16 Riverwood AAAAA
39.66 AAAAA Kell 93.0% 26 Southwest DeKalb AAAAA
39.65 AAA Pierce County 52.9% 2 Westside (Macon) AAA
39.14 AAAA Burke County 79.3% 14 Northside (Columbus) AAAA
38.19 AA Rockmart 64.5% 6 Heard County AA
37.79 AA Brooks County 74.0% 11 Southwest AA
37.13 AA Callaway 92.8% 25 Model AA
37.08 A – Public Dooly County 53.8% 2 Irwin County A – Public
36.49 AAA Liberty County 84.3% 17 Pike County AAA
36.16 AAAAAA Lee County 97.5% 34 Evans AAAAAA
35.87 AAAAAA Glynn Academy 96.5% 32 Jonesboro AAAAAA
35.73 AAAAAA Dalton 98.8% 39 Winder-Barrow AAAAAA
35.37 AAA Morgan County 52.7% 1 Bremen AAA
34.76 AA Fitzgerald 96.2% 31 Dublin AA
34.60 AA Lamar County 57.7% 3 Chattooga AA
34.17 AAAA West Laurens 78.7% 13 Luella AAAA
34.02 AA Thomasville 81.1% 15 Dodge County AA
33.61 AAAA Jefferson 95.4% 30 Pickens AAAA
33.41 AAA Jackson 83.7% 16 Brantley County AAA
33.41 A – Private Athens Christian 62.0% 5 Mount Pisgah Christian A – Private
33.05 AAAA Stephens County 89.3% 21 Heritage (Ringgold) AAAA
32.51 A – Public Bowdon 59.4% 4 Miller County A – Public
31.81 AAAAA Buford 98.4% 37 North Springs AAAAA
31.72 A – Public Taylor County 83.7% 16 Trion A – Public
30.51 A – Private Stratford Academy 74.9% 11 Holy Innocents A – Private
30.51 A – Public Turner County 65.7% 7 Terrell County A – Public
30.27 AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 96.3% 32 North Hall AAA
30.19 AAAAA Carrollton 97.6% 35 Lithonia AAAAA
29.09 AAAAA Jones County 95.5% 30 Wayne County AAAAA
28.89 A – Public Lincoln County 57.9% 3 Washington-Wilkes A – Public
28.81 AA Screven County 79.2% 14 Toombs County AA
28.74 AAAAAA Tucker 98.6% 38 Bradwell Institute AAAAAA
28.26 AAAAA Grady 96.5% 32 Walnut Grove AAAAA
28.03 A – Private George Walton Academy 70.6% 9 Mount Vernon Presbyterian A – Private
28.02 AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 99.2% 40 Grovetown AAAAAA
26.94 A – Private Aquinas 61.7% 5 First Presbyterian A – Private
26.30 A – Public Mitchell County 69.8% 9 Randolph-Clay A – Public
25.87 A – Public Twiggs County 79.9% 14 Marion County A – Public
25.02 AAAA Mary Persons 97.1% 34 North Clayton AAAA
24.87 AAA Jenkins 74.8% 11 Dougherty AAA
24.81 AA Douglass 74.2% 11 Elbert County AA
24.78 AA Vidalia 84.0% 17 Laney AA
24.51 AAA Peach County 97.4% 34 Tattnall County AAA
24.37 AA Washington County 84.9% 17 Berrien AA
23.20 AAAAAA Valdosta 99.8% 41 Lakeside (Evans) AAAAAA
22.77 A – Private Savannah Christian 70.2% 9 Hebron Christian Academy A – Private
22.71 AA Jefferson County 86.6% 19 Swainsboro AA
22.58 A – Private Darlington 91.1% 23 Walker A – Private
22.39 AA K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 67.4% 7 Banks County AA
21.50 AAAA Cartersville 99.9% 41 Chestatee AAAA
21.25 AA Rabun County 98.6% 38 B.E.S.T. Academy AA
21.23 AAA Sonoraville 87.0% 19 Franklin County AAA
19.85 AAA Worth County 92.4% 25 Southeast Bulloch AAA
17.39 AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 99.4% 40 New Hampstead AAAAA
16.92 AAAA Cairo 98.5% 38 Baldwin AAAA
16.15 A – Private Athens Academy 91.6% 24 Savannah Country Day A – Private
15.50 AAAA Carver (Columbus) 96.8% 33 Cross Creek AAAA
14.79 AAAAA Stockbridge 99.8% 41 South Effingham AAAAA
14.48 AAAAA Rome 99.7% 41 Miller Grove AAAAA
13.20 AAA North Murray 84.8% 17 Jackson County AAA
12.67 A – Public Greene County 89.5% 21 Wheeler County A – Public
11.81 A – Private Pinecrest Academy 96.0% 31 Brookstone A – Private
11.19 AAA Calhoun 99.2% 40 Monroe Area AAA
8.94 AA Hapeville Charter 97.0% 33 Monticello AA
4.15 AAA Crisp County 99.5% 41 Islands AAA
1.66 AA Benedictine 99.9% 42 Glenn Hills AA

 

Nov 12

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
34.02 AAA Cedar Grove 91.4% 23 Union County AAA
29.42 AAA Cook 76.2% 12 Savannah AAA

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