Maxwell Week 12 Summary: Top teams carrying momentum into playoffs

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– Five top teams played for their region championship on Friday and all five earned impressive victories:
— Grayson dominated 7-AAAAAAA runner-up South Gwinnett 45-3 to increase her lead in the ratings, which is now nearly two touchdowns over second place Roswell.  The Rams have reeled off nine straight following an opening season loss to national power IMG Academy in Florida.
— Cartersville downed 5-AAAA runner-up Troup to the tune of 68-0.  Cartersville, the defending state champion, is currently riding a 25 game winning streak.
— Greater Atlanta Christian crushed 7-AAA runner-up Dawson County by the score of 42-7.  The Spartans finished undefeated and look for their fifth straight quarterfinal appearance.
— Macon County rolled past 9-1 Manchester 55-13 in the 4-A championship game.  Although the top spot in the Class A – Public ratings have bounced around, Macon County has had the lead most of the season.
— Perhaps the most stunning result from Friday’s games was ELCA’s 49-0 plastering of previously undefeated region 5-A rival Landmark Christian.

– The three remaining top teams also fared well:
— Valdosta dashed Houston County’s playoff hopes, 28-24.  The Wildcats are champions of arguably the toughest region in the state and have only lost to Colquitt County, the two-time defending champion in the state’s largest classification.
— As expected, Stockbridge routed Union Grove to finshed the season unbeaten.  The Tigers’ rating has been steadily increasing each week, eventually passing perinniel favorite Buford back in Week 10.
— Benedictine rolled past Jeff Davis 48-7.  Benedictine was the only top ranked team to drop in the ratings, but they still maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over number two Fitzgerald

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.20%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,866 of 2,043 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.51%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.19 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.51

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 9-1 104.30 1 Valdosta 9-1 82.99
2 Roswell 10-0 90.63 2 Dalton 10-0 79.28
3 Mill Creek 10-0 88.56 3 Mays 9-1 77.59
4 Norcross 10-0 86.51 4 Harrison 9-1 77.50
5 McEachern 9-1 85.25 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-2 74.86
6 Colquitt County 6-4 82.66 6 Lee County 7-2 72.81
7 Lowndes 8-2 75.97 7 Alexander 9-1 72.49
8 North Cobb 8-2 75.64 8 Tucker 9-1 70.11
9 Brookwood 7-3 70.49 9 Houston County 7-3 68.93
10 Parkview 7-3 69.75 10 Glynn Academy 9-1 67.76
11 South Gwinnett 7-3 69.37 11 Northgate 8-2 66.60
12 Archer 4-6 69.05 12 Allatoona 5-5 64.51
13 Cherokee 6-4 68.90 13 Coffee 5-5 63.62
14 North Gwinnett 6-4 67.58 14 Hughes 7-3 63.23
15 North Paulding 7-3 66.89 15 Douglas County 6-4 58.70
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Stockbridge 10-0 77.33 1 Cartersville 10-0 86.72
2 Buford 9-1 72.22 2 Thomson 10-0 74.69
3 Rome 8-2 70.72 3 Woodward Academy 9-1 69.16
4 Woodland (Stockbridge) 8-2 67.27 4 Sandy Creek 7-3 65.89
5 Carrollton 9-1 66.10 5 Jefferson 9-1 62.41
6 Kell 8-2 64.98 6 Mary Persons 8-2 58.92
7 Ware County 6-3 61.87 7 Cairo 9-1 57.76
8 Grady 9-1 60.09 8 Troup 8-2 57.25
9 Jones County 7-3 59.54 9 Blessed Trinity 8-2 56.32
10 Thomas County Central 7-3 57.50 10 Marist 7-3 52.33
11 Griffin 9-1 57.41 11 Stephens County 8-2 51.75
12 Loganville 8-2 52.94 12 Spalding 6-4 51.22
13 Starr’s Mill 6-4 51.90 13 Eastside 7-2-1 50.46
14 Locust Grove 6-4 51.74 14 Cedartown 5-5 49.72
15 Bainbridge 4-5 51.17 15 Burke County 8-2 49.29
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 9-1 70.82 1 Benedictine 10-0 70.75
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 8-2 61.54 2 Fitzgerald 9-1 65.75
3 Peach County 9-1 59.50 3 Rabun County 9-0 63.12
4 Calhoun 8-2 58.86 4 Callaway 10-0 60.61
5 Crisp County 10-0 57.25 5 Pepperell 8-1 50.79
6 Cedar Grove 8-2 55.37 6 Brooks County 7-3 46.33
7 Lovett 7-3 53.16 7 Thomasville 5-4 45.33
8 Liberty County 9-1 50.29 8 Hapeville Charter 7-3 42.37
9 Pace Academy 6-4 47.72 9 Rockmart 8-2 41.33
10 Jackson 7-3 46.73 10 Spencer 6-4 39.46
11 Dawson County 7-2 44.48 11 Screven County 9-1 38.88
12 Worth County 6-4 42.83 12 Washington County 7-3 38.63
13 Westside (Macon) 6-4 39.81 13 Jefferson County 9-1 38.53
14 Pierce County 7-3 39.56 14 Vidalia 8-2 38.30
15 Cook 5-5 39.13 15 Heard County 7-3 36.80
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 8-2 60.04 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 10-0 64.76
2 Clinch County 9-1 49.96 2 Fellowship Christian 10-0 60.68
3 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-1 47.36 3 Prince Avenue Christian 10-0 54.15
4 Manchester 9-1 46.24 4 Mount Paran Christian 9-1 52.03
5 Taylor County 9-1 45.01 5 Wesleyan 8-2 48.88
6 Commerce 8-2 44.41 6 Tattnall Square 10-0 48.62
7 Emanuel County Institute 9-0 43.26 7 Landmark Christian 9-1 48.33
8 McIntosh County Academy 7-2 39.33 8 Calvary Day 9-0 46.95
9 Dooly County 6-4 37.18 9 Darlington 7-3 43.63
10 Irwin County 6-4 37.09 10 Pinecrest Academy 7-3 42.22
11 Twiggs County 7-3 36.36 11 Stratford Academy 7-3 38.07
12 Turner County 7-3 35.51 12 Athens Academy 8-2 37.86
13 Bowdon 6-4 35.49 13 Athens Christian 7-3 35.73
14 Pelham 9-1 33.21 14 George Walton Academy 7-3 33.54
15 Greene County 7-3 31.60 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 5-4 32.27

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 9-1 104.30 61.35 15
2 [2] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 10-0 90.63 65.26 7
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 10-0 88.56 54.50 45
4 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 10-0 86.72 51.95 56
5 [4] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 10-0 86.51 51.11 60
6 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 9-1 85.25 59.41 24
7 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 9-1 82.99 67.43 3
8 [6] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-4 82.66 74.38 2
9 [2] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 10-0 79.28 48.33 73
10 [3] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 9-1 77.59 55.83 36
11 [4] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 9-1 77.50 54.11 46
12 [1] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 10-0 77.33 49.79 64
13 [7] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-2 75.97 60.81 16
14 [8] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 8-2 75.64 61.87 13
15 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-2 74.86 57.64 29
16 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 10-0 74.69 24.44 291
17 [6] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 7-2 72.81 59.61 22
18 [7] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 9-1 72.49 53.18 49
19 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 9-1 72.22 34.81 177
20 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 9-1 70.82 33.59 191
21 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 10-0 70.75 22.31 313
22 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 8-2 70.72 43.49 102
23 [9] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 7-3 70.49 58.29 28
24 [8] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 9-1 70.11 40.16 122
25 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 7-3 69.75 52.61 53
26 [11] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 7-3 69.37 60.60 18
27 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 9-1 69.16 35.82 171
28 [12] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 4-6 69.05 74.41 1
29 [9] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-3 68.93 59.77 20
30 [13] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 68.90 64.06 8
31 [10] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 9-1 67.76 43.19 106
32 [14] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 6-4 67.58 59.84 19
33 [4] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 8-2 67.27 46.43 84
34 [15] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 7-3 66.89 55.36 39
35 [11] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 8-2 66.60 50.94 61
36 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 9-1 66.10 42.73 108
37 [16] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 65.91 60.77 17
38 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 7-3 65.89 49.49 67
39 [17] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-3 65.87 56.01 34
40 [18] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-4 65.85 62.95 10
41 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 9-1 65.75 37.01 161
42 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 8-2 64.98 48.18 75
43 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 10-0 64.76 25.84 264
44 [19] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-2 64.61 41.42 115
45 [12] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 5-5 64.51 59.54 23
46 [20] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 5-5 64.17 59.76 21
47 [21] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 5-5 64.00 62.92 11
48 [22] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-4 63.89 61.86 14
49 [13] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-5 63.62 63.54 9
50 [14] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-3 63.23 50.47 62
51 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 9-0 63.12 14.03 377
52 [23] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-3 62.82 53.95 47
53 [24] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-5 62.45 62.63 12
54 [5] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 9-1 62.41 38.27 145
55 [25] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 6-3-1 62.16 56.84 32
56 [26] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 8-2 61.97 45.04 93
57 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 6-3 61.87 48.26 74
58 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 8-2 61.54 39.49 131
59 [27] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 7-3 61.48 51.56 58
60 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 10-0 60.68 21.88 320
61 [28] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-6 60.66 65.53 5
62 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 10-0 60.61 32.83 200
63 [8] Grady 6 – AAAAA 9-1 60.09 33.33 193
64 [1] Macon County 4 – A 8-2 60.04 33.95 185
65 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 6-4 60.02 55.40 38
66 [9] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 7-3 59.54 48.62 71
67 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 9-1 59.50 37.92 153
68 [6] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 8-2 58.92 39.41 132
69 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 8-2 58.86 27.86 235
70 [15] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-4 58.70 48.75 70
71 [7] Cairo 1 – AAAA 9-1 57.76 39.82 126
72 [10] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 7-3 57.50 49.42 68
73 [11] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 9-1 57.41 37.98 152
74 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 5-5 57.33 58.89 25
75 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 10-0 57.25 35.16 176
76 [8] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-2 57.25 41.35 116
77 [16] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-2 56.90 41.27 117
78 [9] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 8-2 56.32 35.90 170
79 [17] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 8-2 56.30 40.66 118
80 [6] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 8-2 55.37 29.96 221
81 [18] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 7-3 54.65 45.11 91
82 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 10-0 54.15 22.44 310
83 [19] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 5-5 53.32 51.96 55
84 [7] Lovett 5 – AAA 7-3 53.16 35.61 173
85 [20] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 6-4 53.08 48.53 72
86 [12] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 8-2 52.94 33.31 194
87 [21] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 7-3 52.46 45.37 89
88 [10] Marist 7 – AAAA 7-3 52.33 39.59 129
89 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 9-1 52.03 25.79 267
90 [13] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 6-4 51.90 46.54 83
91 [11] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 8-2 51.75 33.00 197
92 [14] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-4 51.74 44.69 96
93 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 51.37 49.70 65
94 [12] Spalding 2 – AAAA 6-4 51.22 44.27 98
95 [15] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 4-5 51.17 47.49 77
96 [22] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 7-3 51.15 40.39 119
97 [23] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 51.03 55.64 37
98 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 8-1 50.79 23.69 297
99 [13] Eastside 4 – AAAA 7-2-1 50.46 33.27 195
100 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 9-1 50.29 27.39 244
101 [24] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 4-6 50.04 56.95 31
102 [25] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 50.00 44.19 99
103 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 9-1 49.96 21.60 326
104 [16] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 8-2 49.95 35.49 174
105 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 8-2 49.75 29.86 223
106 [14] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-5 49.72 47.49 78
107 [18] Ola 4 – AAAAA 6-4 49.52 45.79 86
108 [26] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 49.45 41.62 114
109 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-7 49.40 57.17 30
110 [15] Burke County 3 – AAAA 8-2 49.29 22.77 308
111 [16] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 5-4-1 49.01 47.40 80
112 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 8-2 48.88 26.02 261
113 [6] Tattnall Square 7 – A 10-0 48.62 16.12 364
114 [33] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-6 48.53 55.83 35
115 [7] Landmark Christian 5 – A 9-1 48.33 24.44 290
116 [27] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 6-4 48.22 41.64 113
117 [28] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-4 48.22 43.47 103
118 [17] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-4 48.21 39.27 134
119 [18] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-3 47.91 37.55 158
120 [19] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 8-1 47.86 25.35 277
121 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-6 47.74 54.67 44
122 [19] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-5 47.72 44.34 97
123 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 6-4 47.72 43.31 105
124 [3] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-1 47.36 20.47 339
125 [8] Calvary Day 3 – A 9-0 46.95 10.03 404
126 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 7-3 46.73 30.88 215
127 [20] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-7 46.46 54.90 43
128 [6] Brooks County 1 – AA 7-3 46.33 37.83 154
129 [4] Manchester 4 – A 9-1 46.24 12.18 387
130 [35] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 46.07 65.27 6
131 [29] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 45.73 44.72 95
132 [7] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-4 45.33 40.34 121
133 [36] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-7 45.11 66.57 4
134 [5] Taylor County 4 – A 9-1 45.01 11.27 395
135 [37] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-7 44.99 52.86 50
136 [21] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-5 44.84 45.08 92
137 [22] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 8-2 44.49 23.47 298
138 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-2 44.48 27.72 237
139 [6] Commerce 8 – A 8-2 44.41 21.06 328
140 [30] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 5-5 44.28 38.92 138
141 [20] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-4 44.01 37.72 156
142 [21] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 6-4 43.94 36.24 168
143 [9] Darlington 6 – A 7-3 43.63 31.04 214
144 [7] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 9-0 43.26 6.81 413
145 [23] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 4-6 43.25 52.25 54
146 [12] Worth County 1 – AAA 6-4 42.83 38.40 142
147 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-5 42.57 41.99 112
148 [24] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-4 42.57 36.65 165
149 [8] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 7-3 42.37 31.65 211
150 [10] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 7-3 42.22 28.82 230
151 [25] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 6-4 42.13 34.20 183
152 [26] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 41.89 55.17 41
153 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 41.77 58.60 26
154 [9] Rockmart 7 – AA 8-2 41.33 20.96 332
155 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-3 40.89 34.25 182
156 [22] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 40.48 55.36 40
157 [23] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 5-5 40.22 42.83 107
158 [24] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 2-8 39.86 52.85 51
159 [13] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 39.81 32.15 208
160 [27] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-6 39.77 43.77 100
161 [28] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-6 39.60 47.13 82
162 [14] Pierce County 2 – AAA 7-3 39.56 27.18 249
163 [29] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 39.54 42.69 109
164 [25] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 39.54 25.80 266
165 [10] Spencer 5 – AA 6-4 39.46 33.21 196
166 [8] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 7-2 39.33 18.65 351
167 [32] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 39.13 32.40 207
168 [15] Cook 1 – AAA 5-5 39.13 39.59 130
169 [26] West Hall 7 – AAAA 6-4 38.97 34.42 180
170 [11] Screven County 4 – AA 9-1 38.88 6.44 414
171 [16] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 7-3 38.85 29.76 224
172 [12] Washington County 3 – AA 7-3 38.63 28.59 231
173 [13] Jefferson County 4 – AA 9-1 38.53 13.93 378
174 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 8-2 38.30 23.35 300
175 [30] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 5-5 38.29 36.70 164
176 [11] Stratford Academy 7 – A 7-3 38.07 25.84 265
177 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 8-2 37.86 22.35 312
178 [27] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-4 37.76 39.93 123
179 [31] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 6-4 37.68 31.94 209
180 [33] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-5 37.41 37.73 155
181 [28] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-4 37.25 32.99 198
182 [9] Dooly County 4 – A 6-4 37.18 29.53 226
183 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-8 37.14 55.04 42
184 [10] Irwin County 2 – A 6-4 37.09 27.58 243
185 [15] Heard County 5 – AA 7-3 36.80 24.68 286
186 [16] Model 7 – AA 7-3 36.53 24.47 289
187 [11] Twiggs County 7 – A 7-3 36.36 25.78 268
188 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-5-1 36.32 38.44 140
189 [34] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 36.22 37.34 160
190 [35] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 35.91 47.19 81
191 [13] Athens Christian 8 – A 7-3 35.73 20.51 337
192 [17] Lamar County 5 – AA 6-4 35.69 33.80 188
193 [17] Bremen 6 – AAA 6-4 35.57 25.88 263
194 [12] Turner County 2 – A 7-3 35.51 26.24 256
195 [13] Bowdon 6 – A 6-4 35.49 27.64 241
196 [18] Morgan County 8 – AAA 8-2 35.23 17.02 358
197 [33] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-5 35.01 32.79 202
198 [36] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-3 34.95 23.07 304
199 [19] Pike County 4 – AAA 6-4 34.89 30.72 216
200 [18] Dublin 3 – AA 8-2 34.75 22.76 309
201 [37] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 3-7 34.70 45.39 88
202 [29] Westover 1 – AAAA 5-5 34.52 33.80 187
203 [19] Southwest 3 – AA 6-4 34.45 31.25 212
204 [34] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-7 34.13 43.37 104
205 [38] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-7 34.02 45.12 90
206 [20] Chattooga 7 – AA 6-4 33.99 27.66 240
207 [39] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-8 33.74 56.46 33
208 [14] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-3 33.54 19.41 348
209 [40] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 5-5 33.50 32.96 199
210 [30] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-5 33.46 31.88 210
211 [35] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-7 33.40 43.51 101
212 [41] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 3-7 33.23 45.50 87
213 [20] Union County 7 – AAA 8-2 33.21 22.09 317
214 [14] Pelham 1 – A 9-1 33.21 12.07 390
215 [41] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-5 32.93 38.08 150
216 [31] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-7 32.90 39.85 125
217 [21] Jenkins 3 – AAA 9-1 32.41 9.42 408
218 [32] Luella 4 – AAAA 5-5 32.27 34.45 179
219 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-4 32.27 26.99 251
220 [36] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 6-4 32.21 26.08 258
221 [21] Dodge County 3 – AA 5-5 32.21 29.13 227
222 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-8 32.12 53.32 48
223 [22] Douglass 6 – AA 7-3 32.05 18.92 350
224 [33] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 7-3 31.96 15.92 365
225 [22] Brantley County 2 – AAA 6-3 31.76 25.06 282
226 [15] Greene County 7 – A 7-3 31.60 23.24 302
227 [16] Mitchell County 1 – A 8-2 31.48 11.86 393
228 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-6 31.04 44.83 94
229 [34] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-4 30.58 28.03 234
230 [37] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 5-5 30.43 27.33 248
231 [23] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-4 30.28 26.82 252
232 [17] Miller County 1 – A 8-2 30.25 12.97 383
233 [42] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 4-6 30.23 38.20 148
234 [18] Trion 6 – A 6-4 30.06 20.88 333
235 [19] Lincoln County 7 – A 6-3-1 30.02 25.46 274
236 [24] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.53 26.08 257
237 [25] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-6 29.41 39.21 136
238 [16] Aquinas 7 – A 6-4 29.19 27.62 242
239 [43] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-5-1 29.17 35.82 172
240 [17] Holy Innocents 5 – A 5-5 28.57 27.67 238
241 [44] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 5-5 28.56 27.37 246
242 [35] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-7 28.39 39.72 127
243 [38] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 4-6 28.31 32.82 201
244 [20] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-6 28.27 31.25 213
245 [18] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-3 28.11 19.42 347
246 [23] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-3 28.02 20.98 331
247 [21] Terrell County 1 – A 7-3 27.58 16.50 360
248 [39] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 3-7 27.54 39.71 128
249 [26] North Murray 6 – AAA 7-3 27.40 13.84 380
250 [27] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-5 27.14 29.93 222
251 [40] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-7 26.99 38.73 139
252 [45] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-9 26.95 52.81 52
253 [24] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-4 26.93 20.34 340
254 [41] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-6 26.59 33.43 192
255 [19] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 6-4 26.21 18.61 352
256 [28] Savannah 3 – AAA 7-2 26.06 2.66 416
257 [20] First Presbyterian 7 – A 6-4 25.82 21.02 329
258 [22] Telfair County 2 – A 5-4 25.63 22.27 314
259 [46] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 25.59 42.31 111
260 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-5 25.18 27.35 247
261 [29] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 5-5 24.71 22.79 307
262 [47] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 24.54 39.31 133
263 [23] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-3 24.52 13.38 381
264 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-6 24.14 30.26 218
265 [24] Marion County 4 – A 7-3 24.00 10.74 398
266 [48] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-7 23.86 32.70 204
267 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-8-1 23.54 49.67 66
268 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-7 23.49 34.04 184
269 [25] Laney 4 – AA 5-5 23.14 17.84 354
270 [30] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-7 22.94 35.45 175
271 [26] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-3-1 22.89 13.87 379
272 [37] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-5 22.87 25.36 276
273 [31] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-5 22.84 21.75 322
274 [27] Berrien 1 – AA 4-5 22.81 30.17 219
275 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 22.65 50.17 63
276 [32] Redan 5 – AAA 3-7 22.57 38.23 147
277 [38] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 22.19 28.90 229
278 [33] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-7 22.14 32.57 206
279 [49] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-9 21.92 51.34 59
280 [21] Walker 6 – A 4-6 21.74 27.00 250
281 [28] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-8 21.69 34.49 178
282 [50] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 6-4 21.40 16.31 362
283 [29] Swainsboro 2 – AA 4-6 21.31 28.58 232
284 [51] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 21.18 36.35 166
285 [30] Therrell 6 – AA 4-6 21.13 25.44 275
286 [22] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-5 20.98 22.84 306
287 [52] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-7-1 20.72 33.92 186
288 [53] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-8 20.13 37.45 159
289 [45] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-9 20.02 48.92 69
290 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-10 19.96 51.57 57
291 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-9 19.75 42.52 110
292 [34] Towers 5 – AAA 3-7 19.34 32.64 205
293 [31] Banks County 8 – AA 6-4 19.34 12.11 389
294 [35] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-6 19.24 25.47 272
295 [36] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 5-4 19.20 12.07 391
296 [39] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-10 19.08 48.17 76
297 [25] Charlton County 2 – A 3-6 18.55 25.26 279
298 [37] Franklin County 8 – AAA 4-6 18.45 22.24 315
299 [32] Early County 1 – AA 1-8-1 18.43 38.40 141
300 [40] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-9 18.27 38.39 143
301 [46] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 3-6-1 17.98 24.39 292
302 [33] Temple 5 – AA 6-4 17.52 15.61 368
303 [34] Washington 6 – AA 3-7 17.40 29.04 228
304 [41] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-6 17.33 26.82 253
305 [23] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-7 17.00 39.02 137
306 [42] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-9 16.95 38.24 146
307 [38] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-4 16.88 10.67 399
308 [39] East Hall 7 – AAA 3-7 16.58 25.46 273
309 [35] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 16.10 24.21 294
310 [47] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-10 15.98 46.37 85
311 [43] White County 7 – AAAA 1-9 15.75 37.62 157
312 [26] Seminole County 1 – A 4-5-1 15.71 15.79 367
313 [44] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 6-4 15.59 10.14 403
314 [48] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-9 15.47 40.34 120
315 [24] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-4 15.38 12.13 388
316 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 4-6 15.12 19.54 346
317 [27] Crawford County 4 – A 5-4 15.06 14.36 375
318 [36] Coosa 7 – AA 4-6 14.91 24.07 296
319 [28] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-5 14.62 15.03 371
320 [37] Northeast 3 – AA 2-8 14.62 27.80 236
321 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-8 14.57 33.77 189
322 [29] Warren County 7 – A 4-6 14.43 20.02 343
323 [45] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 4-6 14.13 21.96 319
324 [30] Treutlen 3 – A 6-4 12.73 9.09 410
325 [31] Atkinson County 2 – A 3-7 12.46 27.66 239
326 [46] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-10 12.07 39.86 124
327 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-6 11.84 20.32 341
328 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 4-6 11.76 21.12 327
329 [41] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-7 11.75 20.82 334
330 [42] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-7 11.63 20.47 338
331 [32] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-3 11.61 3.34 415
332 [33] Hawkinsville 4 – A 4-6 11.33 21.86 321
333 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-6 11.27 22.16 316
334 [47] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-5 11.20 12.70 385
335 [39] Bacon County 2 – AA 2-7 11.15 25.30 278
336 [50] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.95 39.24 135
337 [43] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-10 10.95 38.36 144
338 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 3-7 10.43 24.62 288
339 [56] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-10 10.20 58.49 27
340 [44] East Jackson 8 – AAA 4-6 10.18 15.07 370
341 [34] Johnson County 3 – A 5-5 10.06 10.46 401
342 [35] Wilkinson County 7 – A 2-8 9.81 22.95 305
343 [45] Long County 2 – AAA 1-6-2 9.73 25.54 271
344 [36] Montgomery County 3 – A 4-6 9.19 14.43 374
345 [40] Albany 1 – AA 0-10 9.19 33.66 190
346 [51] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-9 9.08 38.04 151
347 [41] Monticello 8 – AA 3-7 9.07 24.69 285
348 [52] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-9 8.68 30.10 220
349 [42] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-7 8.64 23.24 301
350 [53] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-10 8.52 36.17 169
351 [46] Haralson County 6 – AAA 3-7 8.40 24.75 283
352 [48] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-6 8.16 17.40 357
353 [54] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.94 24.69 284
354 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-8 7.86 38.13 149
355 [55] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-8 7.72 26.78 254
356 [37] Schley County 4 – A 4-6 7.57 13.15 382
357 [47] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-8-1 7.44 28.49 233
358 [38] Towns County 8 – A 3-7 7.28 27.39 245
359 [27] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-7 7.21 26.07 259
360 [39] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-5 7.11 9.88 405
361 [28] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 4-6 6.75 15.90 366
362 [40] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-7 6.66 16.38 361
363 [41] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 3-7 6.32 17.40 356
364 [43] Metter 2 – AA 2-7 6.08 21.74 323
365 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-8 5.81 36.31 167
366 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 3-7 5.58 19.69 345
367 [44] Dade County 7 – AA 3-7 5.51 24.64 287
368 [48] McNair 5 – AAA 3-7 5.09 25.19 281
369 [49] Islands 3 – AAA 4-6 4.77 11.55 394
370 [50] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-8 4.35 26.32 255
371 [45] Josey 4 – AA 4-6 4.29 9.86 406
372 [46] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-8 3.97 23.13 303
373 [29] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-8 3.69 22.08 318
374 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-8 3.41 24.14 295
375 [47] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-9 2.76 25.90 262
376 [51] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-6 2.68 8.63 411
377 [48] Jordan 5 – AA 0-10 2.42 36.84 162
378 [49] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 4-6 2.35 12.42 386
379 [50] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-10 2.29 34.29 181
380 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 3-7 0.74 25.60 269
381 [50] Harlem 4 – AA 3-7 0.67 10.92 397
382 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 0.19 21.74 325
383 [42] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-9 0.00 23.45 299
384 [51] Butler 4 – AA 3-7 -0.43 10.57 400
385 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -0.76 1.02 417
386 [52] Social Circle 8 – AA 3-7 -2.37 10.93 396
387 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-10 -2.41 29.70 225
388 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-9 -2.53 36.76 163
389 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-9 -3.12 24.26 293
390 [53] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-9 -3.26 17.01 359
391 [43] Portal 3 – A 1-8 -3.99 21.02 330
392 [44] Lanier County 2 – A 1-9 -4.02 20.75 336
393 [33] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-9 -4.39 22.36 311
394 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-8 -4.85 14.92 372
395 [45] Calhoun County 1 – A 2-8 -4.98 16.14 363
396 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-9 -5.12 32.70 203
397 [54] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-8 -5.20 17.97 353
398 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-10 -6.99 30.53 217
399 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 2-8 -8.10 21.74 324
400 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-8 -9.94 7.01 412
401 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-9 -13.46 19.92 344
402 [46] Greenville 4 – A 1-9 -15.14 26.07 260
403 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-9 -15.57 9.67 407
404 [47] Stewart County 1 – A 2-8 -15.95 15.25 369
405 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-10 -16.00 18.94 349
406 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-9 -17.05 17.56 355
407 [49] Claxton 3 – A 0-9 -17.07 25.59 270
408 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -18.34 47.46 79
409 [36] Pacelli 4 – A 1-9 -19.74 12.96 384
410 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-10 -20.39 9.42 409
411 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-9 -20.76 14.18 376
412 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-10 -23.64 25.26 280
413 [51] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-9 -24.38 14.56 373
414 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-10 -25.99 12.01 392
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-10 -26.18 20.22 342
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 3-5 -26.51 -14.22 418
417 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-10 -28.54 20.75 335
418 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-9 -29.26 10.17 402
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-4 -47.79 -34.88 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -49.02 -25.19 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 8 – AAAAAAA 87.78 62.59
2 1 – AAAAAA 87.71 72.59
3 1 – AAAAAAA 86.35 68.57
4 4 – AAAAAAA 85.41 68.00
5 3 – AAAAAAA 83.05 63.40
6 6 – AAAAAAA 78.57 54.26
7 7 – AAAAAAA 77.82 47.73
8 5 – AAAAAA 75.28 54.50
9 5 – AAAA 74.60 52.38
10 6 – AAAAAA 73.60 53.31
11 5 – AAAAAAA 71.46 55.21
12 4 – AAAAA 69.91 49.35
13 7 – AAAAA 67.28 45.48
14 2 – AAAAAAA 65.81 48.26
15 2 – AAAAAA 65.19 46.46
16 1 – AAAAA 62.32 46.82
17 8 – AAAA 60.90 41.91
18 2 – AAAA 59.45 41.42
19 5 – AAA 59.28 34.07
20 8 – AAAAA 59.21 34.21
21 3 – AAAAA 58.79 40.66
22 8 – AAAAAA 58.33 41.02
23 7 – AAAAAA 58.18 39.09
24 1 – AA 57.95 33.85
25 7 – AAAA 57.87 37.49
26 3 – AAAA 57.33 20.20
27 4 – AAAAAA 56.68 38.12
28 1 – AAA 55.99 37.98
29 1 – AAAA 55.23 38.34
30 4 – AAAA 54.92 28.66
31 5 – A 54.59 28.84
32 4 – AAA 53.94 33.81
33 7 – AAA 53.62 29.20
34 5 – AA 53.55 32.77
35 6 – AAAAA 53.04 32.08
36 6 – A 49.74 25.38
6 – Div B – A 52.80 26.18
6 – Div A – A 46.61 24.57
37 2 – AAA 48.55 30.58
38 2 – AAAAA 48.50 22.76
39 8 – A 46.80 24.63
40 7 – AA 45.79 21.56
41 6 – AAAA 45.59 24.72
42 4 – A 45.16 16.94
4 – Div B – A 52.96 28.13
4 – Div A – A 33.11 1.99
43 2 – AA 45.10 20.62
44 6 – AAA 43.53 21.22
6 – South – AAA 53.75 32.59
6 – North – AAA 29.87 8.47
45 2 – A 43.45 22.06
46 3 – AAAAAA 42.76 26.72
47 3 – AA 42.39 23.99
48 6 – AA 41.50 25.18
49 7 – A 41.22 25.58
7 – Div A – A 47.41 27.82
7 – Div B – A 35.81 23.90
50 3 – A 39.20 16.06
3 – Div A – A 43.89 19.95
3 – Div B – A 33.06 13.81
51 5 – AAAAA 38.64 23.60
52 8 – AA 36.36 9.55
53 4 – AA 34.55 9.78
54 1 – A 33.83 15.12
55 8 – AAA 31.97 15.05
56 3 – AAA 27.80 5.81

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 – 21 18.06 85.9% 0.207
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 16.52 83.9% 0.217
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 19.11 87.1% 0.222
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 17.73 85.5% 0.225
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 16.16 83.4% 0.229
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 13.79 79.9% 0.229
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 16.36 83.7% 0.235
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 16.45 83.8% 0.259
08/19 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 13 – 14 14.84 81.5% 0.282
10/24 Brunswick Bradwell Institute 18 – 21 13.69 79.7% 0.289
10/21 Heritage (Conyers) Lakeside (Evans) 26 – 28 13.85 80.0% 0.292
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 13.98 80.2% 0.295
09/02 West Laurens Dodge County 0 – 3 13.15 78.8% 0.297
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 13.10 78.8% 0.309
10/21 Ridgeland Pickens 34 – 35 12.98 78.6% 0.311

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
03/28 9/2/2016 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 1763.0% 0.854
03/24 8/20/2016 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 590.0% 0.643
03/24 9/9/2016 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 940.0% 0.719
03/22 9/23/2016 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 175.0% 0.544
03/18 10/21/2016 Dalton Harrison 31 – 14 320.0% 0.579
03/17 8/19/2016 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 845.0% 0.699
03/17 10/28/2016 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 811.0% 0.692
03/17 10/7/2016 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 1103.0% 0.751
03/17 8/27/2016 Mays Stockbridge 34 – 35 26.0% 0.506
03/16 10/7/2016 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 956.0% 0.722
03/16 9/2/2016 Harrison North Cobb 25 – 13 328.0% 0.581
03/16 10/21/2016 Valdosta Lee County 27 – 7 877.0% 0.706
03/14 8/19/2016 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 1842.0% 0.863
03/14 10/28/2016 Mays Alexander 31 – 28 652.0% 0.658
03/13 10/14/2016 Northside (Warner Robins) Lee County 26 – 7 347.0% 0.586

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