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Daily List: Maxwell Ratings’ odds of earning the at-large playoff berth

Football, listClass AAAAAAA will award its 32nd and final playoff berth to one of the seven fifth-place teams or Region 1’s fourth-place team, whichever among the eight finishes with the highest GHSA power rating. The wild card is necessary because of a new GHSA bylaw that grants only three automatic playoff berths to regions such as 1-AAAAAAA that have only four teams. Below are two lists that use the Maxwell Ratings to project which team is most likely to get the wild card. The first list shows the odds of each contending team getting the wild card. That would be Walton from Region 4. The second list shows the odds of each team getting the wild card – if it is a fifth-place finisher (or a fourth-place finisher in the case of Region 1’s Tift County). In that case, North Paulding is the most likely team to get the wild card. But, North Paulding is not likely to finish fifth because the Wolfpack is favored to defeated Marietta this week and clinch the No. 4 playoff berth from Region 3. So, North Paulding is not likely to finish fifth, but if it does, North Paulding has the biggest safety net. Teams not listed are those that have no chance of getting the wild card even if they finish fifth (or fourth, in the case of Camden County).

 

38.68% – Walton

21.13% – Lassiter

11.87% – Tift County

11.40% – North Paulding

9.15% – Etowah

6.48% – Woodstock

0.71% – Lakeside

0.53% – Milton

0.04% – Newton

0.01% – Archer

 

76.83% – North Paulding

71.56% – Woodstock

64.32% – Tift County

62.32% – Newton

61.37% – Walton

53.18% – Lassiter

10.37% – Etowah

1.33% – Milton

0.71% – Lakeside

0.17% – Archer

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