Maxwell playoff projections after Week 11

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.


10

Class AAAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.Wesl

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
8 – AAAAAAA 122,670 877,330 106,801 2,275 6 250,030 749,970 11,670 595,191 0.68
4 – AAAAAAA 173,794 826,206 67,771 1,439 3 396,903 603,097 1,363 225,074 3.44
7 – AAAAAAA 319,785 680,215 22,483 231 1 715,402 284,598 673 66,440 14.05
6 – AAAAAAA 413,490 586,510 22,315 237 850,293 149,707 607 65,273 14.32
3 – AAAAAAA 562,611 437,389 49,033 747 1 890,604 109,396 2,409 29,398 33.02
1 – AAAAAAA 747,502 252,498 19,428 201 919,049 80,951 1,356 18,464 53.16
2 – AAAAAAA 976,157 23,843 68 997,784 2,216 84 11,903.76
5 – AAAAAAA 977,185 22,815 156 998,013 1,987 76 13,156.89

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 8-1 103.46 1,000,000 5.18 971,201 884,598 745,721 594,263 0.68
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 9-0 93.47 1,000,000 4.55 910,724 824,424 596,980 224,640 3.45
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 9-0 86.17 1,000,000 3.76 768,330 669,114 281,366 66,001 14.15
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 9-0 88.53 1,000,000 3.57 840,762 569,792 144,850 65,015 14.38
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 8-1 84.68 1,000,000 3.13 778,781 357,457 73,214 25,713 37.89
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-4 82.92 1,000,000 2.80 733,378 115,993 47,956 14,921 66.02
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 74.88 1,000,000 2.61 651,857 119,944 37,777 3,645 273.35
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-2 76.08 1,000,000 2.19 201,231 144,643 32,635 3,475 286.77
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 3-6 68.97 921,669 1.97 364,750 66,508 9,452 535 1,868.16
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 7-2 69.33 1,000,000 1.65 85,889 30,304 6,172 380 2,630.58
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 70.50 1,000,000 1.89 174,220 11,899 1,982 258 3,874.97
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.29 1,000,000 2.05 127,642 34,649 3,794 240 4,165.67
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 5-4 67.32 1,000,000 1.55 43,364 18,190 3,605 183 5,463.48
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 69.04 1,000,000 1.77 144,248 21,456 1,906 181 5,523.86
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.00 813,967 1.41 175,931 25,790 2,816 159 6,288.31
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 6-3 61.88 1,000,000 1.66 179,950 20,763 1,944 68 14,704.88
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 65.01 934,151 1.28 126,481 11,430 1,713 68 14,704.88
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 4-5 63.64 872,260 1.32 142,244 16,006 1,375 50 19,999.00
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 5-4 59.39 1,000,000 1.85 159,889 10,707 1,265 33 30,302.03
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-3 64.78 1,000,000 1.51 73,426 7,108 418 32 31,249.00
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-4 64.05 974,243 1.50 50,245 6,679 639 28 35,713.29
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 65.91 965,621 1.15 51,187 2,927 279 26 38,460.54
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-2 64.49 1,000,000 1.11 35,752 5,074 484 25 39,999.00
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 7-2 62.53 1,000,000 1.54 16,476 2,800 259 16 62,499.00
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-4 62.32 1,000,000 1.22 24,369 6,834 535 14 71,427.57
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 5-3-1 62.69 999,766 1.14 38,251 4,998 295 13 76,922.08
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 63.51 1,000,000 1.43 57,049 4,490 277 11 90,908.09
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 61.38 756,529 0.98 29,890 2,912 169 6 166,665.67
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 58.62 209,632 0.27 13,184 965 62 1 999,999.00
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 4-5 54.77 605,138 0.63 2,604 578 24
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 49.66 1,000,000 1.24 17,709 461 17
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 4-5 50.69 1,000,000 1.10 3,580 271 10
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-5 49.56 400,181 0.41 670 89 3
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 45.87 1,000,000 1.04 1,187 76 3
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-6 48.97 184,569 0.20 2,852 61 3
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-6 50.41 148,395 0.15 539 7
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 46.70 79,086 0.08 123 3
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 43.30 127,740 0.13 34
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-4 30.65 7,053 0.01 1
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-6 45.84
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-7 37.49
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 31.11
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-5 31.06
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-9 23.25
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 23.05
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 8.82
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-8 -1.89
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -17.47

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 At Large Out
1 – AAAAAAA Colquitt County 1,000,000
1 – AAAAAAA Lowndes 1,000,000
1 – AAAAAAA Tift County 815,431 118,720 65,849
1 – AAAAAAA Camden County 184,569 815,431
2 – AAAAAAA Westlake 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAAA East Coweta 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAAA Wheeler 663,420 336,580
2 – AAAAAAA Pebblebrook 336,580 663,420
2 – AAAAAAA Newnan 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAAA Campbell 1,000,000
3 – AAAAAAA McEachern 953,192 6,258 40,550
3 – AAAAAAA North Cobb 4,110 993,742 2,148
3 – AAAAAAA Hillgrove 42,698 957,302
3 – AAAAAAA North Paulding 851,605 114,016 34,379
3 – AAAAAAA Marietta 148,395 851,605
3 – AAAAAAA Kennesaw Mountain 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAAA Roswell 943,267 56,733
4 – AAAAAAA Cherokee 56,733 943,267
4 – AAAAAAA Woodstock 735,957 173,490 64,796 25,757
4 – AAAAAAA Lassiter 602,627 211,340 186,033
4 – AAAAAAA Walton 264,043 105,728 386,758 243,471
4 – AAAAAAA Etowah 118,155 91,477 790,368
5 – AAAAAAA Lambert 953,770 18,367 27,863
5 – AAAAAAA South Forsyth 26,909 564,802 408,289
5 – AAAAAAA West Forsyth 19,321 416,831 563,848
5 – AAAAAAA Milton 599,819 5,319 394,862
5 – AAAAAAA North Forsyth 400,181 599,819
5 – AAAAAAA Forsyth Central 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA Mill Creek 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 990,209 1,305 8,486
6 – AAAAAAA Mountain View 9,791 127,562 862,647
6 – AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 871,132 1,128 127,740
6 – AAAAAAA Collins Hill 1 127,739 872,260
6 – AAAAAAA Discovery 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA Duluth 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Norcross 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Brookwood 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Parkview 861,000 139,000
7 – AAAAAAA Central Gwinnett 139,000 861,000
7 – AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 7,053 992,947
7 – AAAAAAA Meadowcreek 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Berkmar 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAAA Grayson 964,401 35,599
8 – AAAAAAA Archer 844,747 76,690 98 134 78,331
8 – AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 35,599 44,041 920,360
8 – AAAAAAA Newton 75,613 2,828 920,938 387 234
8 – AAAAAAA Shiloh 122 78,964 920,914
8 – AAAAAAA Rockdale County 1,000,000

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAA 78,884 921,116 494,591 84,030 4,308 333,956 666,044 146,392 463,335 1.16
6 – AAAAAA 150,434 849,566 353,352 28,727 163 442,130 557,870 107,888 363,804 1.75
5 – AAAAAA 450,388 549,612 129,116 11,957 346 698,852 301,148 18,882 124,067 7.06
2 – AAAAAA 645,495 354,505 5,384 7 862,708 137,292 156 34,948 27.61
4 – AAAAAA 862,650 137,350 3,297 12 944,519 55,481 40 12,805 77.09
7 – AAAAAA 968,270 31,730 255 995,415 4,585 4 549 1,820.49
8 – AAAAAA 959,895 40,105 270 995,792 4,208 5 492 2,031.52
3 – AAAAAA 999,802 198 999,995 5

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 82.61 1,000,000 4.53 851,657 808,669 512,290 363,355 1.75
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 9-0 80.35 1,000,000 4.23 931,487 705,007 370,129 242,850 3.12
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 8-1 77.17 1,000,000 3.50 715,111 436,320 275,614 117,552 7.51
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 75.84 1,000,000 3.23 630,545 353,731 215,315 87,575 10.42
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-2 74.09 1,000,000 3.54 771,538 479,369 224,689 78,752 11.70
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 8-1 69.47 1,000,000 3.19 693,956 344,270 136,292 34,816 27.72
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 71.73 1,000,000 2.76 572,858 190,479 66,456 26,932 36.13
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 70.58 918,723 2.36 369,492 126,257 50,653 15,398 63.94
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 8-1 68.20 1,000,000 2.48 353,103 128,465 54,676 12,741 77.49
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 67.02 1,000,000 2.05 177,573 96,039 27,341 7,935 125.02
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-4 64.78 869,767 2.05 277,073 68,794 17,394 3,725 267.46
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 63.85 1,000,000 2.11 261,214 84,476 19,670 3,371 295.65
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-2 68.33 211,510 0.52 77,255 20,954 7,410 2,105 474.06
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-3 63.02 1,000,000 1.82 146,836 50,782 10,918 1,625 614.38
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 54.28 1,000,000 2.10 399,966 32,063 3,262 423 2,363.07
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 56.92 1,000,000 1.48 74,890 20,233 3,268 349 2,864.33
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-2 56.58 1,000,000 1.29 17,313 9,855 1,172 193 5,180.35
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 6-3 52.52 1,000,000 1.79 213,426 14,043 1,090 128 7,811.50
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-3 54.38 1,000,000 1.29 43,041 7,468 890 66 15,150.52
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.34 1,000,000 1.67 166,673 8,384 597 43 23,254.81
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 49.79 1,000,000 1.62 36,283 3,780 248 21 47,618.05
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.37 514,258 0.78 78,027 3,702 222 21 47,618.05
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-6 48.36 485,742 0.70 57,826 2,306 123 10 99,999.00
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 6-3 51.10 832,041 0.93 17,578 1,314 101 5 199,999.00
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 46.87 1,000,000 1.08 9,148 735 61 3 333,332.33
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 43.46 987,674 1.17 26,507 759 32 3 333,332.33
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 47.97 1,000,000 1.07 8,766 583 48 2 499,999.00
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 4-5 45.83 750,448 1.03 9,945 822 34 1 999,999.00
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-2 39.66 1,000,000 1.07 3,857 114 4
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.47 1,000,000 1.04 2,180 69 1
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.70 1,000,000 1.02 2,728 110
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 36.52 562,469 0.58 1,057 26
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-6 28.46 1,000,000 1.01 238 9
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 4-5 27.48 1,000,000 1.01 159 6
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 32.91 437,531 0.45 402 4
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.28 167,959 0.17 192 2
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-4-1 30.49 261,878 0.27 100 1
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 58.47
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-5 53.12
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-5 51.33
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-7 34.78
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 33.23
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-5 33.09
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 30.99
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 30.08
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-8 27.83
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 26.59
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 25.07
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 24.46
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-6-1 22.19
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 21.94
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 21.88
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-8 19.29
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 18.52
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 17.92
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-5 13.13
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 1-7 6.59
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 0.41

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAAA Valdosta 1,000,000
1 – AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 918,723 81,277
1 – AAAAAA Lee County 613,777 304,946 81,277
1 – AAAAAA Coffee 81,277 304,946 483,544 130,233
1 – AAAAAA Houston County 81,277 130,233 788,490
2 – AAAAAA Glynn Academy 1,000,000
2 – AAAAAA Effingham County 750,448 249,552
2 – AAAAAA Richmond Hill 249,552 738,122 12,326
2 – AAAAAA Brunswick 738,122 12,326 249,552
2 – AAAAAA Bradwell Institute 12,326 249,552 738,122
3 – AAAAAA Evans 730,875 269,125
3 – AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 269,125 410,746 320,129
3 – AAAAAA Lakeside (Evans) 297,970 365,748 336,282
3 – AAAAAA Grovetown 22,159 314,123 663,718
3 – AAAAAA Greenbrier 1,000,000
3 – AAAAAA Alcovy 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Tucker 864,860 31,570 103,570
4 – AAAAAA Lovejoy 949,965 50,035
4 – AAAAAA Stephenson 135,140 18,465 846,395
4 – AAAAAA Drew 562,469 437,531
4 – AAAAAA Jonesboro 437,531 562,469
4 – AAAAAA Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Forest Park 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA M.L. King 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Mundy’s Mill 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Mays 746,272 116,320 137,408
5 – AAAAAA Alexander 117,481 824,543 57,976
5 – AAAAAA Northgate 136,247 59,137 804,616
5 – AAAAAA Hughes 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Creekside 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Douglas County 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA South Paulding 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Tri-Cities 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA New Manchester 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Dalton 915,099 58,820 26,081
6 – AAAAAA Harrison 61,870 924,003 14,127
6 – AAAAAA Allatoona 23,031 17,177 959,792
6 – AAAAAA Sprayberry 514,258 485,742
6 – AAAAAA Sequoyah 485,742 514,258
6 – AAAAAA Creekview 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Osborne 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA River Ridge 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA South Cobb 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Johns Creek 980,896 15,941 3,163
7 – AAAAAA Centennial 19,104 980,896
7 – AAAAAA Cambridge 3,163 185,620 811,217
7 – AAAAAA Alpharetta 811,175 20,866 167,959
7 – AAAAAA Chattahoochee 42 167,917 832,041
7 – AAAAAA Dunwoody 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA North Atlanta 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Northview 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Pope 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Dacula 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Lanier 720,801 279,199
8 – AAAAAA Gainesville 279,199 720,801
8 – AAAAAA Winder-Barrow 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Habersham Central 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Apalachee 1,000,000

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
4 – AAAAA 68,410 931,590 363,432 14,731 77 322,170 677,830 92,965 446,209 1.24
8 – AAAAA 294,935 705,065 39,380 119 467,568 532,432 4,245 290,099 2.45
7 – AAAAA 168,518 831,482 344,142 49,226 74 555,221 444,779 63,462 216,635 3.62
2 – AAAAA 765,054 234,946 32 935,146 64,854 21,758 44.96
6 – AAAAA 776,805 223,195 3,375 1 935,928 64,072 105 15,977 61.59
3 – AAAAA 878,501 121,499 3,438 22 975,817 24,183 101 4,188 237.78
1 – AAAAA 924,508 75,492 1,666 12 980,510 19,490 44 3,292 302.77
5 – AAAAA 943,079 56,921 80 988,562 11,438 1,842 541.89

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 9-0 76.19 1,000,000 4.85 952,895 884,272 620,565 395,399 1.53
Buford 8 – AAAAA 8-1 75.11 1,000,000 4.37 878,266 687,159 528,536 288,749 2.46
Rome 7 – AAAAA 7-2 70.69 1,000,000 4.01 906,927 673,796 284,866 144,096 5.94
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 7-2 67.02 1,000,000 3.16 597,966 382,238 138,636 48,740 19.52
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 8-1 66.13 1,000,000 3.09 719,540 228,100 122,067 40,565 23.65
Kell 7 – AAAAA 7-2 65.12 1,000,000 3.07 687,053 321,527 101,225 31,972 30.28
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-3 63.18 1,000,000 2.81 646,490 234,951 64,854 21,758 44.96
Grady 6 – AAAAA 8-1 62.02 1,000,000 2.66 401,320 210,535 62,169 15,766 62.43
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.59 1,000,000 2.18 301,004 89,368 19,672 3,648 273.12
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 6-3 57.17 1,000,000 2.13 258,948 49,800 16,612 2,971 335.59
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 6-3 57.16 1,000,000 2.11 119,716 37,170 11,076 2,022 493.56
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 8-1 53.08 1,000,000 2.35 486,265 56,267 11,413 1,838 543.07
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 7-2 54.43 1,000,000 2.24 288,114 54,200 7,864 1,333 749.19
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 5-4 50.65 1,000,000 1.86 239,552 23,653 3,450 422 2,368.67
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 7-2 48.73 1,000,000 1.73 36,109 15,526 1,991 211 4,738.34
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 3-5 49.90 1,000,000 1.67 111,942 15,610 1,809 211 4,738.34
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-2 48.32 1,000,000 1.57 81,684 11,262 1,112 112 8,927.57
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-6 47.06 1,000,000 1.53 101,373 8,607 905 97 10,308.28
Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-4 48.28 994,124 1.21 55,346 6,093 510 48 20,832.33
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 6-4 43.55 1,000,000 1.34 10,887 3,188 277 17 58,822.53
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-5 44.77 1,000,000 1.26 33,319 3,154 208 13 76,922.08
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-3 41.47 1,000,000 1.19 11,611 677 50 6 166,665.67
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 5-4 37.59 1,000,000 1.10 14,809 725 25 4 249,999.00
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 39.52 1,000,000 1.24 45,148 1,500 83 2 499,999.00
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 4-5 37.06 852,119 0.96 8,913 442 14
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-3 50.29 5,876 0.01 431 58 8
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-4 32.60 277,985 0.29 924 43 3
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 5-4 30.36 862,133 0.88 1,066 25
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-7 28.51 1,000,000 1.06 757 24
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-6 28.20 972,297 1.00 550 17
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 4-5 24.74 1,000,000 1.02 792 10
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-8 19.89 1,000,000 1.01 167 2
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-5-1 15.85 1,000,000 1.00 66 1
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-6 13.37 613,129 0.61 19
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-8 0.85 386,871 0.39 14
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-5 26.43 24,686 0.03 14
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-6 21.84 7,763 0.01 2
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-6 27.98 3,017 0.00 1
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-4 48.39
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 3-6 42.28
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 40.62
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-5 40.39
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-5 39.99
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-4-1 35.48
Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-6 34.34
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-6 34.23
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-5 26.33
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-7-1 23.23
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-8 19.51
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-9 15.26
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 3-6 12.01
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.56
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-9 9.59
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-8 9.19
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-8 7.06
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-9 -9.58
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 1-8 -29.84
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 1-5 -48.00

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAA Thomas County Central 923,729 47,252 29,019
1 – AAAAA Bainbridge 47,252 598,590 354,158
1 – AAAAA Warner Robins 29,019 354,158 569,571 47,252
1 – AAAAA Veterans 47,252 952,748
1 – AAAAA Harris County 1,000,000
2 – AAAAA Ware County 998,307 1,512 181
2 – AAAAA Wayne County 1,025 998,331 644
2 – AAAAA South Effingham 571,469 428,531
2 – AAAAA New Hampstead 668 157 427,706 571,469
2 – AAAAA Statesboro 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA Griffin 783,103 87,634 1,035 128,228
3 – AAAAA Starr’s Mill 88,730 742,235 169,035
3 – AAAAA Whitewater 128,167 169,035 690,352 12,446
3 – AAAAA Riverdale 1,096 139,578 859,326
3 – AAAAA Fayette County 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA McIntosh 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA Morrow 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Stockbridge 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Jones County 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Ola 994,124 5,876
4 – AAAAA Locust Grove 5,876 994,124
4 – AAAAA Dutchtown 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Eagle’s Landing 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Union Grove 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Hampton 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Arabia Mountain 949,235 27,499 23,266
5 – AAAAA Southwest DeKalb 37,697 959,876 2,427
5 – AAAAA Lithonia 13,068 12,625 974,307
5 – AAAAA Miller Grove 613,129 386,871
5 – AAAAA Chamblee 386,871 613,129
5 – AAAAA Columbia 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Clarkston 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Cross Keys 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Grady 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Riverwood 722,015 130,104 147,881
6 – AAAAA North Springs 132,085 730,048 137,867
6 – AAAAA Banneker 145,900 132,085 722,015
6 – AAAAA Maynard Jackson 7,763 992,237
6 – AAAAA Decatur 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Lithia Springs 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Rome 965,416 30,233 4,351
7 – AAAAA Carrollton 4,351 965,416 30,233
7 – AAAAA Kell 30,233 4,351 965,416
7 – AAAAA Villa Rica 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA East Paulding 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Paulding County 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Cass 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Hiram 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Woodland (Cartersville) 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Buford 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Loganville 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Clarke Central 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Walnut Grove 972,297 27,703
8 – AAAAA Cedar Shoals 24,686 975,314
8 – AAAAA Flowery Branch 3,017 996,983
8 – AAAAA Johnson (Gainesville) 1,000,000

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
5 – AAAA 110,699 889,301 373,284 51,944 2,042 182,873 817,127 121,868 669,053 0.49
3 – AAAA 222,791 777,209 4,749 380,024 619,976 1,006 212,983 3.70
4 – AAAA 770,966 229,034 9,683 8 838,505 161,495 1,807 71,997 12.89
8 – AAAA 510,609 489,391 60,245 456 1 872,219 127,781 1,058 19,803 49.50
2 – AAAA 506,349 493,651 20,978 195 940,905 59,095 265 14,124 69.80
1 – AAAA 753,773 246,227 12,174 15 950,112 49,888 87 5,821 170.79
7 – AAAA 710,007 289,993 9,926 13 969,478 30,522 140 5,789 171.74
6 – AAAA 960,660 39,340 136 992,115 7,885 430 2,324.58

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 85.32 1,000,000 5.20 963,346 822,706 778,649 639,467 0.56
Thomson 3 – AAAA 9-0 74.06 1,000,000 4.41 828,613 775,837 618,849 212,726 3.70
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 9-1 70.22 1,000,000 3.16 836,432 187,119 150,065 71,016 13.08
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 6-3 65.67 1,000,000 2.73 507,836 331,709 115,861 24,307 40.14
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 8-1 60.73 1,000,000 3.31 796,141 410,941 117,912 18,262 53.76
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 7-2 59.18 1,000,000 3.21 700,899 470,282 53,520 13,779 71.57
Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-1 57.45 1,000,000 2.63 399,522 196,736 47,481 5,574 178.40
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 56.51 1,000,000 2.41 496,375 243,121 23,943 5,058 196.71
Troup 5 – AAAA 8-1 57.49 1,000,000 2.17 159,901 100,096 41,192 4,744 209.79
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 7-2 52.77 1,000,000 2.19 237,722 101,858 6,936 1,152 867.06
Eastside 4 – AAAA 6-2-1 51.35 1,000,000 2.18 423,516 50,854 13,216 981 1,018.37
Marist 7 – AAAA 6-3 53.24 1,000,000 1.50 141,665 55,072 6,532 727 1,374.52
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-4 52.34 644,046 1.09 156,802 53,928 3,057 514 1,944.53
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 7-1 47.30 1,000,000 2.16 369,413 35,981 7,730 423 2,363.07
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-2 50.15 1,000,000 1.96 162,150 35,288 3,828 383 2,609.97
Burke County 3 – AAAA 7-2 51.25 1,000,000 1.79 32,103 6,032 2,133 257 3,890.05
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 5-4 47.69 998,376 2.00 206,070 53,005 2,237 228 4,384.96
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-3 46.63 1,000,000 1.85 160,234 25,360 2,944 151 6,621.52
Spalding 2 – AAAA 5-4 49.60 1,000,000 1.32 82,624 10,489 1,793 146 6,848.32
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-4 43.84 868,675 1.34 120,987 8,692 1,102 48 20,832.33
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 4-4-1 45.27 355,954 0.48 38,815 8,133 236 21 47,618.05
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-3 39.84 328,828 0.66 48,722 6,949 142 13 76,922.08
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-3 38.68 1,000,000 1.18 8,506 1,078 45 5 199,999.00
West Hall 7 – AAAA 6-3 40.80 1,000,000 1.14 6,018 1,737 187 4 249,999.00
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 1-8 38.91 641,670 0.86 41,095 1,636 133 4 249,999.00
Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-4 37.59 1,000,000 1.17 18,403 2,835 60 4 249,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 39.28 1,000,000 1.29 19,753 587 95 3 333,332.33
Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-3 35.05 358,330 0.44 12,802 370 30 2 499,999.00
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 4-5 40.22 482,836 0.50 2,071 596 65 1 999,999.00
Luella 4 – AAAA 4-5 32.97 914,740 1.08 11,150 588 21
Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-6 34.41 189,960 0.19 283 53 5
Perry 2 – AAAA 3-6 30.78 131,325 0.13 317 3 1
Salem 4 – AAAA 5-4 26.66 853,472 0.88 1,901 129
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-5 23.38 1,000,000 1.08 2,955 88
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 6-3 25.08 1,000,000 1.03 2,870 74
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-4 25.11 231,715 0.25 1,591 34
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 23.21 1,000,000 1.00 218 2
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 5-4 13.10 1,000,000 1.02 179 2
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 3-6 7.47 73 0.00
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 40.12
Westover 1 – AAAA 4-5 35.38
Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-8 20.12
Howard 2 – AAAA 1-8 18.86
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-9 17.75
White County 7 – AAAA 1-8 16.85
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-9 12.79
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-4 10.28
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-5 9.24
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-7 2.79
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-9 1.11
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-9 -1.00
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-9 -24.41

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAA Cairo 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Carver (Columbus) 660,622 321,862 15,892 1,624
1 – AAAA Northside (Columbus) 38,382 660,622 300,996
1 – AAAA Americus-Sumter 482,836 517,164
1 – AAAA Hardaway 300,996 17,516 10,316 671,172
1 – AAAA Columbus 189,960 810,040
1 – AAAA Westover 1,000,000
1 – AAAA Shaw 1,000,000
2 – AAAA Mary Persons 1,000,000
2 – AAAA Upson-Lee 713,457 218,349 68,194
2 – AAAA Spalding 150,247 58,201 791,552
2 – AAAA West Laurens 136,296 721,410 10,969 131,325
2 – AAAA Perry 2,040 129,285 868,675
2 – AAAA Howard 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Thomson 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Burke County 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Baldwin 712,897 287,103
3 – AAAA Cross Creek 287,103 712,897
3 – AAAA Richmond Academy 1,000,000
3 – AAAA Hephzibah 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Woodward Academy 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Eastside 925,472 74,528
4 – AAAA Luella 900,132 14,608 85,260
4 – AAAA Salem 853,472 146,528
4 – AAAA North Clayton 74,528 25,340 131,847 768,285
4 – AAAA Druid Hills 73 999,927
4 – AAAA Henry County 1,000,000
5 – AAAA Cartersville 951,593 48,407
5 – AAAA Troup 48,407 951,593
5 – AAAA Sandy Creek 1,000,000
5 – AAAA Cedartown 644,046 355,954
5 – AAAA Chapel Hill 355,954 644,046
5 – AAAA LaGrange 1,000,000
5 – AAAA Central (Carrollton) 1,000,000
6 – AAAA Ridgeland 973,061 4,978 21,961
6 – AAAA Northwest Whitfield 26,939 973,061
6 – AAAA Pickens 21,961 792,690 185,349
6 – AAAA Heritage (Ringgold) 185,349 814,651
6 – AAAA Southeast Whitfield 1,000,000
6 – AAAA Gilmer 1,000,000
6 – AAAA LaFayette 1,000,000
7 – AAAA Blessed Trinity 854,382 125,801 19,817
7 – AAAA Marist 142,554 854,382 3,064
7 – AAAA West Hall 3,064 19,817 977,119
7 – AAAA Chestatee 1,000,000
7 – AAAA White County 1,000,000
8 – AAAA Jefferson 930,980 66,254 2,766
8 – AAAA Stephens County 722,741 277,259
8 – AAAA Oconee County 69,020 211,005 719,975
8 – AAAA St. Pius X 641,670 358,330
8 – AAAA Madison County 358,330 641,670
8 – AAAA North Oconee 1,000,000

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
7 – AAA 240,411 759,589 78,059 272 427,765 572,235 7,514 448,402 1.23
5 – AAA 195,403 804,597 346,022 56,467 1,683 520,664 479,336 71,901 240,528 3.16
6 – AAA 487,515 512,485 20,462 225 1 686,578 313,422 965 110,630 8.04
4 – AAA 520,268 479,732 65,094 2,146 10 789,219 210,781 5,516 100,535 8.95
1 – AAA 471,396 528,604 45,956 493 731,039 268,961 2,238 86,270 10.59
2 – AAA 773,700 226,300 14,720 31 941,482 58,518 449 13,078 75.46
8 – AAA 956,268 43,732 15 993,929 6,071 439 2,276.90
3 – AAA 986,706 13,294 13 997,908 2,092 1 118 8,473.58

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 69.82 1,000,000 4.53 832,623 773,683 565,802 446,511 1.24
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 7-2 61.84 1,000,000 3.89 909,900 593,842 264,573 161,362 5.20
Calhoun 6 – AAA 7-2 58.95 999,445 3.65 743,053 491,411 310,047 110,132 8.08
Peach County 4 – AAA 8-1 59.77 1,000,000 3.46 806,671 412,783 184,803 95,472 9.47
Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-0 57.47 1,000,000 3.40 577,607 486,380 256,381 84,222 10.87
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 7-2 55.81 1,000,000 3.40 840,168 368,673 199,368 57,246 16.47
Lovett 5 – AAA 6-3 53.83 1,000,000 2.22 276,718 209,915 79,806 19,957 49.11
Liberty County 2 – AAA 8-1 49.31 1,000,000 2.71 663,797 169,114 47,157 11,759 84.04
Jackson 4 – AAA 7-2 46.67 1,000,000 2.28 306,599 89,286 25,386 4,536 219.46
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-4 47.80 952,031 1.18 63,441 36,335 7,490 1,963 508.42
Worth County 1 – AAA 6-3 42.94 1,000,000 2.17 145,988 76,212 13,563 1,898 525.87
Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-1 45.15 1,000,000 1.52 102,615 60,610 13,585 1,879 531.20
Pierce County 2 – AAA 7-2 41.40 1,000,000 2.11 406,478 69,599 11,629 1,313 760.61
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-4 40.42 1,000,000 1.64 221,908 39,190 5,713 492 2,031.52
Morgan County 8 – AAA 7-2 37.05 1,000,000 2.03 273,756 43,400 6,068 439 2,276.90
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 6-3 39.84 894,540 1.94 210,948 23,386 2,660 380 2,630.58
Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 38.38 826,519 1.50 60,745 10,851 1,147 141 7,091.20
Jenkins 3 – AAA 8-1 34.33 1,000,000 1.87 112,765 12,234 2,051 118 8,473.58
Bremen 6 – AAA 5-4 33.90 880,608 1.69 179,335 16,520 1,622 118 8,473.58
Pike County 4 – AAA 5-4 34.33 886,851 1.16 88,097 5,459 380 34 29,410.76
North Hall 7 – AAA 6-4 31.33 1,000,000 1.06 17,441 1,752 144 7 142,856.14
Monroe 1 – AAA 2-5 32.12 277,213 0.45 10,568 1,247 87 7 142,856.14
Union County 7 – AAA 7-2 31.68 852,900 0.94 26,268 1,848 217 5 199,999.00
Appling County 2 – AAA 4-4 30.39 678,287 0.74 20,759 1,321 63 4 249,999.00
Brantley County 2 – AAA 5-3 31.50 1,000,000 1.14 7,356 929 116 2 499,999.00
Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-7 24.04 896,268 1.11 10,364 364 21 2 499,999.00
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.94 110,919 0.13 6,254 263 15 1 999,999.00
Savannah 3 – AAA 6-2 26.64 1,000,000 1.30 11,117 959 39
Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-6 23.32 560,886 0.70 17,464 894 32
North Murray 6 – AAA 6-3 22.79 439,114 0.77 18,598 792 22
Franklin County 8 – AAA 3-6 19.71 984,325 1.20 13,430 287 3
Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-4 20.41 105,460 0.15 4,805 117 3
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 4-4 19.82 1,000,000 1.06 937 113 3
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-5 21.77 321,713 0.33 2,787 89 2
Murray County 6 – AAA 6-3 15.84 119,392 0.16 2,744 52 1
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-5 21.12 147,100 0.15 664 27 1
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-6 14.77 761,123 0.82 3,034 29
Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-6 12.72 621,399 0.71 2,001 27
Hart County 8 – AAA 1-7-1 12.70 231,272 0.23 70 3
Towers 5 – AAA 3-6 16.93 47,969 0.05 31 3
Islands 3 – AAA 3-6 2.82 1,000,000 1.01 40 1
East Jackson 8 – AAA 3-6 8.77 401,881 0.40 45
Rutland 4 – AAA 2-7 15.68 2,230 0.00 11
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-8 -14.61 555 0.00
Redan 5 – AAA 3-6 20.18
East Hall 7 – AAA 2-7 16.84
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-9 11.46
Long County 2 – AAA 1-5-2 9.31
Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-7 7.56
Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-7 6.19
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-5 2.51
McNair 5 – AAA 3-6 2.14
Beach 3 – AAA 2-7 -5.67
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -7.81
Groves 3 – AAA 2-7 -7.94
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-7 -18.43
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-9 -30.66

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAA Crisp County 792,376 207,624
1 – AAA Worth County 207,624 792,376
1 – AAA Cook 778,906 47,613 173,481
1 – AAA Dougherty 896,268 103,732
1 – AAA Monroe 221,094 56,119 722,787
2 – AAA Liberty County 662,568 337,432
2 – AAA Pierce County 337,432 662,568
2 – AAA Brantley County 1,000,000
2 – AAA Appling County 678,287 321,713
2 – AAA Tattnall County 321,713 678,287
2 – AAA Long County 1,000,000
3 – AAA Jenkins 1,000,000
3 – AAA Savannah 1,000,000
3 – AAA Southeast Bulloch 1,000,000
3 – AAA Islands 1,000,000
3 – AAA Windsor Forest 1,000,000
3 – AAA Beach 1,000,000
3 – AAA Groves 1,000,000
3 – AAA Johnson (Savannah) 1,000,000
4 – AAA Peach County 767,501 232,499
4 – AAA Jackson 232,499 767,501
4 – AAA Westside (Macon) 1,000,000
4 – AAA Pike County 886,851 113,149
4 – AAA Central (Macon) 110,919 889,081
4 – AAA Rutland 2,230 997,770
4 – AAA Kendrick 1,000,000
5 – AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 1,000,000
5 – AAA Cedar Grove 1,000,000
5 – AAA Lovett 1,000,000
5 – AAA Pace Academy 952,031 47,969
5 – AAA Towers 47,969 952,031
5 – AAA McNair 1,000,000
5 – AAA Redan 1,000,000
5 – AAA Stone Mountain 1,000,000
6 – AAA Calhoun 999,445 555
6 – AAA Sonoraville 274 501,665 392,601 105,460
6 – AAA Bremen 24 52,173 482,680 345,731 119,392
6 – AAA North Murray 250 438,864 560,886
6 – AAA Adairsville 305 560,581 439,114
6 – AAA Murray County 7 7,266 65,249 46,870 880,608
6 – AAA Ringgold 32 59,165 46,263 894,540
6 – AAA Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 555 999,445
6 – AAA Haralson County 1,000,000
6 – AAA Coahulla Creek 1,000,000
7 – AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 912,057 87,943
7 – AAA Dawson County 87,943 912,057
7 – AAA North Hall 143,698 856,302
7 – AAA Union County 777,898 75,002 147,100
7 – AAA Lumpkin County 78,404 68,696 852,900
7 – AAA East Hall 1,000,000
7 – AAA Fannin County 1,000,000
8 – AAA Morgan County 1,000,000
8 – AAA Franklin County 594,117 378,601 11,607 15,675
8 – AAA Monroe Area 378,601 27,282 355,240 238,877
8 – AAA Jackson County 27,282 594,117 378,601
8 – AAA East Jackson 401,881 598,119
8 – AAA Hart County 231,272 768,728

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
2 – AA 100,721 899,279 42,791 361 284,839 715,161 3,902 516,567 0.94
1 – AA 460,797 539,203 58,248 2,014 20 545,210 454,790 5,166 185,699 4.39
8 – AA 497,070 502,930 1,199 545,652 454,348 54 173,836 4.75
5 – AA 258,367 741,633 144,681 473 772,353 227,647 4,958 104,017 8.61
4 – AA 707,919 292,081 18,752 2 960,174 39,826 51 8,641 114.73
7 – AA 872,814 127,186 5,235 65 970,091 29,909 102 6,166 161.18
3 – AA 650,865 349,135 2,649 2 958,435 41,565 12 3,664 271.93
6 – AA 732,785 267,215 4,831 4 977,502 22,498 11 1,410 708.22

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 9-0 72.36 1,000,000 5.11 985,795 894,238 713,354 516,223 0.94
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 8-1 65.14 1,000,000 4.00 909,934 491,169 442,845 183,241 4.46
Rabun County 8 – AA 8-0 63.90 1,000,000 4.05 926,778 501,729 454,270 173,826 4.75
Callaway 5 – AA 9-0 62.36 1,000,000 3.72 813,926 670,762 209,060 101,987 8.81
Jefferson County 4 – AA 9-0 50.07 1,000,000 3.07 809,424 272,959 38,590 8,608 115.17
Pepperell 7 – AA 7-1 50.83 1,000,000 2.53 560,522 66,283 24,900 5,835 170.38
Washington County 3 – AA 7-2 43.54 1,000,000 2.79 520,036 344,080 41,163 3,642 273.57
Spencer 5 – AA 6-3 43.70 1,000,000 2.26 333,813 210,572 22,643 1,989 501.77
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 6-3 40.03 1,000,000 2.81 589,869 244,444 21,655 1,386 720.50
Brooks County 1 – AA 6-3 46.94 1,000,000 1.98 156,708 80,022 8,054 1,360 734.29
Thomasville 1 – AA 5-3 44.63 1,000,000 2.19 346,134 26,511 9,029 1,098 909.75
Vidalia 2 – AA 7-2 40.18 1,000,000 1.95 69,102 9,344 4,131 287 3,483.32
Rockmart 7 – AA 7-2 38.06 1,000,000 1.46 73,294 26,157 2,212 147 6,801.72
Model 7 – AA 7-2 39.44 1,000,000 1.25 59,306 26,141 1,858 144 6,943.44
Toombs County 2 – AA 6-3 33.14 1,000,000 1.63 166,304 38,371 1,575 57 17,542.86
Chattooga 7 – AA 6-3 34.44 1,000,000 1.50 67,553 13,906 1,041 40 24,999.00
Lamar County 5 – AA 5-4 36.45 965,371 1.37 42,405 2,368 682 35 28,570.43
Screven County 4 – AA 8-1 30.66 1,000,000 1.80 198,431 37,749 1,273 33 30,302.03
Douglass 6 – AA 6-3 31.70 1,000,000 1.90 124,514 9,788 239 14 71,427.57
Southwest 3 – AA 5-4 35.28 1,000,000 1.33 23,882 6,306 213 14 71,427.57
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-2 28.68 1,000,000 1.62 85,726 17,776 611 10 99,999.00
Elbert County 8 – AA 6-2-1 32.06 1,000,000 1.61 18,092 2,155 131 10 99,999.00
Heard County 5 – AA 6-3 32.52 1,000,000 1.25 34,761 3,086 220 6 166,665.67
Dublin 3 – AA 7-2 30.68 1,000,000 1.05 11,994 598 136 4 249,999.00
Dodge County 3 – AA 5-5 32.58 1,000,000 1.22 35,395 804 65 4 249,999.00
Berrien 1 – AA 4-4 22.58 1,000,000 1.11 10,248 1,783 28
Laney 4 – AA 4-5 24.11 1,000,000 1.13 2,861 129 14
Swainsboro 2 – AA 3-6 17.80 949,193 1.03 11,498 479 3
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-8 21.44 507,623 0.51 925 31 2
Washington 6 – AA 3-6 19.06 451,381 0.46 486 10 2
Monticello 8 – AA 3-6 10.23 1,000,000 1.06 4,755 160 1
Banks County 8 – AA 5-4 14.24 1,000,000 1.13 5,151 86
Bryan County 2 – AA 3-5 12.01 50,807 0.05 171 2
Therrell 6 – AA 3-6 19.28 40,996 0.04 52 2
Temple 5 – AA 6-3 17.33 34,629 0.04 89
Josey 4 – AA 4-5 5.34 639,363 0.64 56
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 3-6 0.18 360,637 0.36 10
Early County 1 – AA 0-8-1 17.43
South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 15.68
Coosa 7 – AA 3-6 13.88
Northeast 3 – AA 1-8 13.29
Albany 1 – AA 0-9 10.21
Metter 2 – AA 2-6 10.05
Bacon County 2 – AA 1-7 9.69
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-6 9.30
Dade County 7 – AA 2-6 5.52
Putnam County 8 – AA 1-8 4.73
Jordan 5 – AA 0-9 3.42
Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-7 3.07
East Laurens 3 – AA 1-8 3.07
Butler 4 – AA 3-6 2.06
Harlem 4 – AA 2-7 1.20
Armuchee 7 – AA 2-7 -5.15
Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -5.82
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-8 -13.92
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-9 -17.32
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-9 -26.16

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AA Fitzgerald 904,673 95,327
1 – AA Thomasville 95,327 904,673
1 – AA Brooks County 932,754 67,246
1 – AA Berrien 67,246 932,754
1 – AA Albany 1,000,000
1 – AA Early County 1,000,000
2 – AA Benedictine 1,000,000
2 – AA Vidalia 1,000,000
2 – AA Toombs County 805,494 194,506
2 – AA Swainsboro 194,506 754,687 50,807
2 – AA Bryan County 50,807 949,193
2 – AA Jeff Davis 1,000,000
2 – AA Bacon County 1,000,000
2 – AA Metter 1,000,000
3 – AA Washington County 1,000,000
3 – AA Southwest 1,000,000
3 – AA Dodge County 1,000,000
3 – AA Dublin 1,000,000
3 – AA Bleckley County 1,000,000
3 – AA East Laurens 1,000,000
3 – AA Northeast 1,000,000
4 – AA Jefferson County 894,030 105,970
4 – AA Screven County 105,970 894,030
4 – AA Laney 888,273 111,727
4 – AA Josey 111,727 527,636 360,637
4 – AA Glenn Hills 360,637 639,363
4 – AA Harlem 1,000,000
4 – AA Butler 1,000,000
4 – AA Westside (Augusta) 1,000,000
5 – AA Callaway 1,000,000
5 – AA Spencer 945,843 54,157
5 – AA Lamar County 702,761 262,610 34,629
5 – AA Heard County 54,157 243,082 702,761
5 – AA Temple 34,629 965,371
5 – AA Jordan 1,000,000
6 – AA Hapeville Charter 789,627 210,373
6 – AA Douglass 789,627 210,373
6 – AA K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 210,373 789,627
6 – AA B.E.S.T. Academy 507,623 492,377
6 – AA Washington 451,381 548,619
6 – AA Therrell 40,996 959,004
6 – AA South Atlanta 1,000,000
7 – AA Pepperell 903,276 94,674 2,050
7 – AA Chattooga 96,724 524,683 378,593
7 – AA Rockmart 362,587 365,681 271,732
7 – AA Model 18,056 253,676 728,268
7 – AA Coosa 1,000,000
7 – AA Armuchee 1,000,000
7 – AA Dade County 1,000,000
7 – AA Gordon Central 1,000,000
8 – AA Rabun County 1,000,000
8 – AA Elbert County 878,134 121,866
8 – AA Banks County 121,866 878,134
8 – AA Monticello 1,000,000
8 – AA Putnam County 1,000,000
8 – AA Oglethorpe County 1,000,000
8 – AA Social Circle 1,000,000

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Macon County 4 – A 7-2 55.88 1,000,000 864,732 682,898 494,877 343,269 1.91
Manchester 4 – A 9-0 53.70 1,000,000 803,411 602,850 385,410 237,135 3.22
Clinch County 2 – A 8-1 50.30 1,000,000 840,695 562,973 391,351 186,778 4.35
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-0 47.94 1,000,000 755,400 431,166 241,740 104,337 8.58
Twiggs County 7 – A 7-2 44.77 1,000,000 467,353 242,086 99,698 35,842 26.90
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-0 39.74 1,000,000 640,587 288,629 83,072 23,382 41.77
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 6-2 39.31 1,000,000 566,662 224,563 74,214 18,451 53.20
Taylor County 4 – A 8-1 41.83 1,000,000 379,419 170,166 59,813 17,188 57.18
Commerce 8 – A 7-2 38.26 1,000,000 472,153 196,648 58,130 13,210 74.70
Irwin County 2 – A 6-3 40.46 1,000,000 257,758 102,890 30,309 8,808 112.53
Mitchell County 1 – A 8-1 31.76 1,000,000 341,362 103,781 18,355 2,402 415.32
Bowdon 6 – A 6-3 35.79 1,000,000 142,939 43,737 9,981 1,919 520.10
Pelham 1 – A 8-1 29.82 1,000,000 295,104 78,688 11,806 1,410 708.22
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-5 33.11 998,238 162,442 41,607 8,631 1,302 767.05
Turner County 2 – A 6-3 33.52 1,000,000 139,171 39,241 6,691 1,193 837.22
Dooly County 4 – A 5-4 34.61 1,000,000 111,389 30,176 6,293 1,160 861.07
Greene County 7 – A 6-3 32.32 1,000,000 105,595 28,796 5,082 766 1,304.48
Miller County 1 – A 7-2 27.78 1,000,000 216,646 45,003 5,109 495 2,019.20
Lincoln County 7 – A 5-3-1 30.81 1,000,000 81,805 20,765 3,071 418 2,391.34
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-2 24.43 1,000,000 168,773 27,676 2,396 201 4,974.12
Marion County 4 – A 7-2 27.91 1,000,000 57,553 13,433 1,699 153 6,534.95
Telfair County 2 – A 5-3 26.99 1,000,000 61,974 11,276 1,332 117 8,546.01
Terrell County 1 – A 6-3 24.09 1,000,000 46,376 8,013 719 46 21,738.13
Trion 6 – A 5-4 24.93 252,199 17,876 2,797 219 18 55,554.56
Seminole County 1 – A 4-4-1 15.02 233,975 1,702 115 2
Jenkins County 3 – A 4-4 3.97 498,141 1,083 23
Johnson County 3 – A 4-5 5.90 17,395 40 4
Treutlen 3 – A 5-4 9.56 52
Warren County 7 – A 4-5 21.86
Charlton County 2 – A 2-6 18.90
Crawford County 4 – A 4-4 15.39
Gordon Lee 6 – A 4-4 14.97
Hancock Central 7 – A 3-6 13.84
Atkinson County 2 – A 2-7 12.98
Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-6 11.71
Wheeler County 3 – A 6-3 8.56
Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-8 7.63
Schley County 4 – A 3-6 7.29
Towns County 8 – A 2-7 5.35
Montgomery County 3 – A 3-6 5.34
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-7 4.77
Wilcox County 2 – A 1-8 0.73
Lanier County 2 – A 1-8 -2.55
Calhoun County 1 – A 1-8 -6.03
Claxton 3 – A 0-8 -6.22
Portal 3 – A 0-8 -9.04
Greenville 4 – A 1-8 -10.75
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-8 -13.00
Stewart County 1 – A 2-7 -14.25
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-8 -21.46
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-9 -25.39

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
1 – A Mitchell County 529,237 968,276 31,724
1 – A Miller County 147 693,928 306,072
1 – A Pelham 470,409 643,773 356,227
1 – A Randolph-Clay 153 164,889 835,111
1 – A Terrell County 54 139,102 860,861 37
1 – A Seminole County 395,999 604,001
1 – A Calhoun County 1,000,000
1 – A Chattahoochee County 1,000,000
1 – A Stewart County 1,000,000
1 – A Baconton Charter 1,000,000
2 – A Clinch County 996,610 996,612 3,388
2 – A Irwin County 2,254 14,147 985,826 27
2 – A Turner County 1,136 1,337 997,802 861
2 – A Telfair County 12 998,099 1,889
2 – A Atkinson County 1,000,000
2 – A Charlton County 1,000,000
2 – A Lanier County 1,000,000
2 – A Wilcox County 1,000,000
3 – A Emanuel County Institute 737,892 999,206 794
3 – A McIntosh County Academy 7,921 982,130 17,870
3 – A Jenkins County 978,905 21,095
3 – A Johnson County 484,273 515,727
3 – A Treutlen 369,726 630,274
3 – A Claxton 1,000,000
3 – A Montgomery County 1,000,000
3 – A Portal 1,000,000
3 – A Wheeler County 1,000,000
4 – A Macon County 621,100 621,100 378,900
4 – A Manchester 378,900 378,900 621,100
4 – A Taylor County 1,000,000
4 – A Marion County 653,387 346,613
4 – A Dooly County 62,554 937,446
4 – A Central (Talbotton) 1,000,000
4 – A Crawford County 1,000,000
4 – A Greenville 1,000,000
4 – A Hawkinsville 1,000,000
4 – A Schley County 1,000,000
5 – A Fulton Leadership Academy 1,000,000
6 – A Mount Zion (Carroll) 449,855 900,386 99,614
6 – A Bowdon 999,646 354
6 – A Gordon Lee 474,361 525,639
6 – A Trion 273,583 726,417
7 – A Twiggs County 184,262 192,456 807,544
7 – A Lincoln County 61,904 61,980 938,020
7 – A Greene County 999,999 1
7 – A Warren County 210,641 789,359
7 – A Washington-Wilkes 52,362 52,362 47,378 900,260
7 – A Hancock Central 1,000,000
7 – A Wilkinson County 1,000,000
8 – A Commerce 189,404 810,596
8 – A Towns County 1,000,000

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 9-0 57.32 1,000,000 904,258 682,405 472,588 331,149 2.02
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 9-0 53.08 1,000,000 847,894 488,272 261,147 148,853 5.72
Tattnall Square 7 – A 9-0 52.48 1,000,000 857,087 455,409 228,153 130,003 6.69
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 9-0 49.43 1,000,000 837,476 546,130 285,599 115,851 7.63
Landmark Christian 5 – A 9-0 49.65 1,000,000 845,016 483,062 236,711 101,068 8.89
Calvary Day 3 – A 8-0 48.34 1,000,000 835,390 456,749 231,823 85,090 10.75
Wesleyan 5 – A 7-2 46.50 1,000,000 745,085 322,313 130,529 43,480 22.00
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 8-1 46.57 1,000,000 534,289 205,705 76,149 28,159 34.51
Darlington 6 – A 7-2 42.80 1,000,000 284,248 97,402 30,800 8,490 116.79
Stratford Academy 7 – A 6-3 39.92 1,000,000 148,769 52,416 11,578 2,973 335.36
Athens Academy 8 – A 8-1 34.80 1,000,000 424,419 81,798 14,798 2,144 465.42
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 6-3 36.45 1,000,000 161,959 39,686 8,535 1,365 731.60
Aquinas 7 – A 6-3 33.40 1,000,000 103,701 22,554 3,695 457 2,187.18
George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-2 32.39 1,000,000 148,644 21,475 2,624 381 2,623.67
First Presbyterian 7 – A 6-3 31.95 1,000,000 49,103 9,180 1,322 150 6,665.67
Athens Christian 8 – A 6-3 30.76 1,000,000 66,115 10,502 1,256 141 7,091.20
Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-2 28.23 1,000,000 110,067 14,455 1,550 133 7,517.80
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-3 31.66 1,000,000 44,620 6,743 877 100 9,999.00
Holy Innocents 5 – A 4-5 24.74 1,000,000 19,757 1,788 163 9 111,110.11
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 5-4 21.80 1,000,000 11,505 895 56 4 249,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-4 20.21 1,000,000 9,687 622 33
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-6 16.65 1,000,000 6,287 292 8
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-3 14.70 1,000,000 3,034 117 6
Walker 6 – A 3-6 14.35 150,410 602 14
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-7 7.11 545,482 521 8
Brookstone 4 – A 4-5 15.19 77,588 324 7
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-6 5.01 167,371 103 1
Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-7 6.01 59,149 40
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-7 2.96
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 3-6 0.20
Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-8 -3.38
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-8 -5.20
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-7 -7.25
St. Francis 6 – A 1-8 -14.88
Pacelli 4 – A 1-8 -15.88
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-9 -16.41

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
3 – A Calvary Day 2,480 9,068 932
3 – A Savannah Christian 1,747 8,253
3 – A Savannah Country Day 10,000
4 – A Brookstone 7,522 2,478
4 – A Pacelli 10,000
5 – A Eagle’s Landing Christian 6,059 9,999 1
5 – A Landmark Christian 3,941 9,917 83
5 – A Wesleyan 9,913 87
5 – A Mount Vernon Presbyterian 10,000
5 – A Holy Innocents 9,999 1
5 – A Our Lady of Mercy 9,670 330
5 – A Strong Rock Christian 1,499 8,501
6 – A Fellowship Christian 5,412 8,876 1,124
6 – A Mount Paran Christian 1,118 8,882
6 – A Darlington 277 9,723
6 – A Mount Pisgah Christian 10,000
6 – A Pinecrest Academy 10,000
6 – A Walker 1,166 8,834
6 – A Whitefield Academy 98 9,902
6 – A King’s Ridge Christian 14 9,986
6 – A Christian Heritage 10,000
6 – A North Cobb Christian 10,000
6 – A St. Francis 10,000
7 – A Tattnall Square 6,813 7,130 2,870
7 – A Aquinas 151 151 9,849
7 – A Stratford Academy 28 76 9,924
7 – A First Presbyterian 10,000
7 – A Mount de Sales 28 9,972
8 – A Prince Avenue Christian 7,548 9,999 1
8 – A Athens Academy 2,452 9,772 228
8 – A George Walton Academy 1,955 8,045
8 – A Hebron Christian Academy 1 9,999
8 – A Athens Christian 1 9,999
8 – A Riverside Military Academy 4 9,996
8 – A Lakeview Academy 10,000
8 – A Providence Christian 10,000

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