Maxwell Week 11 Summary: Grayson tops 100; At-Large bid in AAAAAAA narrows down

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:
– With an impressive win over Hoover (Ala.), Grayson topped a rating of 100 this week, the first school to do so since Colquitt County started the season with a rating of over 100. Although the rating system generally does not weigh out-of-state opponents heavily, Hoover, like all out-of-state opponents, has a rating based on its historical performance against GHSA teams. The Buccaneers have played (and been competitive) against several of Georgia’s top teams over the past few years, including most recently going 1-1 against Colquitt County in 2013 and 2014.
– While the traditional region seeding for the playoffs is settling down, the At-Large bid in AAAAAAA has basically narrowed to Regions 1, 3, and 4 (98.7% chance).
In 3-AAAAAAA, North Paulding has an 85.1% chance of defeating Marietta this weekend to lock up the number four seed. However, if they lose they would be the favorite to snatch the At-Large bid.
Similarly, Tift County has an 81.7% chance of besting Camden County for the number three seed in 1-AAAAAAA. If the Blue Devils lose they would also be competitive for the At-Large bid.
Finally, the winner of the Woodstock-Walton game (Woodstock 73.6% favorite) should lock down the number three seed in Region 4-AAAAAAA. The loser would fight it out with Lassiter and Etowah for the number four spot while all three would still be competitive for the At-Large bid.
Ultimately the modal bracket reflects North Paulding, Tift County, Woodstock, and Lassiter all securing traditional seeds while Walton secures the At-Large bid.

 


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.68%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,701 of 1,845 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.38%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.06 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.51

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 8-1 103.50 1 Valdosta 8-1 82.61
2 Roswell 9-0 93.47 2 Dalton 9-0 80.35
3 Mill Creek 9-0 88.53 3 Harrison 8-1 77.17
4 Norcross 9-0 86.17 4 Mays 8-1 75.84
5 McEachern 8-1 84.68 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-2 74.09
6 Colquitt County 6-4 82.92 6 Alexander 8-1 71.73
7 Lowndes 8-2 76.08 7 Lee County 6-2 70.58
8 North Cobb 7-2 74.88 8 Glynn Academy 8-1 69.47
9 Brookwood 6-3 70.50 9 Houston County 7-2 68.33
10 South Gwinnett 7-2 69.33 10 Tucker 8-1 68.20
11 Parkview 6-3 69.04 11 Northgate 8-1 67.02
12 Archer 3-6 68.97 12 Coffee 5-4 64.78
13 North Gwinnett 5-4 67.32 13 Allatoona 5-4 63.85
14 Cherokee 6-3 67.29 14 Hughes 7-3 63.02
15 Lassiter 6-3 67.00 15 Douglas County 6-3 58.47
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Stockbridge 9-0 76.19 1 Cartersville 9-0 85.32
2 Buford 8-1 75.11 2 Thomson 9-0 74.06
3 Rome 7-2 70.69 3 Woodward Academy 9-1 70.22
4 Woodland (Stockbridge) 7-2 67.02 4 Sandy Creek 6-3 65.67
5 Carrollton 8-1 66.13 5 Jefferson 8-1 60.73
6 Kell 7-2 65.12 6 Mary Persons 7-2 59.18
7 Ware County 5-3 63.18 7 Troup 8-1 57.49
8 Grady 8-1 62.02 8 Cairo 8-1 57.45
9 Griffin 8-1 57.59 9 Blessed Trinity 7-2 56.51
10 Thomas County Central 6-3 57.17 10 Marist 6-3 53.24
11 Jones County 6-3 57.16 11 Stephens County 7-2 52.77
12 Loganville 7-2 54.43 12 Cedartown 5-4 52.34
13 Arabia Mountain 8-1 53.08 13 Eastside 6-2-1 51.35
14 Starr’s Mill 5-4 50.65 14 Burke County 7-2 51.25
15 Locust Grove 6-3 50.29 15 Oconee County 7-2 50.15
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 8-1 69.82 1 Benedictine 9-0 72.36
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 7-2 61.84 2 Fitzgerald 8-1 65.14
3 Peach County 8-1 59.77 3 Rabun County 8-0 63.90
4 Calhoun 7-2 58.95 4 Callaway 9-0 62.36
5 Crisp County 9-0 57.47 5 Pepperell 7-1 50.83
6 Cedar Grove 7-2 55.81 6 Jefferson County 9-0 50.07
7 Lovett 6-3 53.83 7 Brooks County 6-3 46.94
8 Liberty County 8-1 49.31 8 Thomasville 5-3 44.63
9 Pace Academy 5-4 47.80 9 Spencer 6-3 43.70
10 Jackson 7-2 46.67 10 Washington County 7-2 43.54
11 Dawson County 7-1 45.15 11 Vidalia 7-2 40.18
12 Worth County 6-3 42.94 12 Hapeville Charter 6-3 40.03
13 Pierce County 7-2 41.40 13 Model 7-2 39.44
14 Westside (Macon) 5-4 40.42 14 Rockmart 7-2 38.06
15 Sonoraville 6-3 39.84 15 Lamar County 5-4 36.45
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 7-2 55.88 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 9-0 57.32
2 Manchester 9-0 53.70 2 Fellowship Christian 9-0 53.08
3 Clinch County 8-1 50.30 3 Tattnall Square 9-0 52.48
4 Mount Zion (Carroll) 9-0 47.94 4 Landmark Christian 9-0 49.65
5 Twiggs County 7-2 44.77 5 Prince Avenue Christian 9-0 49.43
6 Taylor County 8-1 41.83 6 Calvary Day 8-0 48.34
7 Irwin County 6-3 40.46 7 Mount Paran Christian 8-1 46.57
8 Emanuel County Institute 8-0 39.74 8 Wesleyan 7-2 46.50
9 McIntosh County Academy 6-2 39.31 9 Darlington 7-2 42.80
10 Commerce 7-2 38.26 10 Stratford Academy 6-3 39.92
11 Bowdon 6-3 35.79 11 Pinecrest Academy 6-3 36.45
12 Dooly County 5-4 34.61 12 Athens Academy 8-1 34.80
13 Turner County 6-3 33.52 13 Aquinas 6-3 33.40
14 Washington-Wilkes 4-5 33.11 14 George Walton Academy 7-2 32.39
15 Greene County 6-3 32.32 15 First Presbyterian 6-3 31.95

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 8-1 103.46 58.45 25
2 [2] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 9-0 93.47 64.65 7
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 9-0 88.53 58.03 26
4 [4] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 9-0 86.17 55.22 41
5 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 85.32 50.84 65
6 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 8-1 84.68 59.51 22
7 [6] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 6-4 82.92 74.27 2
8 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 82.61 66.65 4
9 [2] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 9-0 80.35 46.50 85
10 [3] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 8-1 77.17 54.28 49
11 [1] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 9-0 76.19 51.42 62
12 [7] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-2 76.08 61.28 16
13 [4] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 75.84 53.94 50
14 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 8-1 75.11 38.77 139
15 [8] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 7-2 74.88 63.44 9
16 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-2 74.09 57.09 32
17 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 9-0 74.06 29.13 229
18 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 9-0 72.36 25.03 282
19 [6] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 71.73 51.55 61
20 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 7-2 70.69 46.64 84
21 [7] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 70.58 57.71 29
22 [9] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 70.50 62.06 13
23 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 9-1 70.22 35.97 172
24 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 69.82 31.52 211
25 [8] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 8-1 69.47 47.55 78
26 [10] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 7-2 69.33 57.89 27
27 [11] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 6-3 69.04 53.24 52
28 [12] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 3-6 68.97 77.89 1
29 [9] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 7-2 68.33 57.23 31
30 [10] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 8-1 68.20 38.07 146
31 [13] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 5-4 67.32 62.81 10
32 [14] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.29 61.03 17
33 [4] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 7-2 67.02 45.10 93
34 [11] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 8-1 67.02 47.59 77
35 [15] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-3 67.00 61.44 15
36 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 8-1 66.13 44.02 100
37 [16] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 6-3 65.91 56.27 35
38 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 6-3 65.67 52.35 56
39 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 8-1 65.14 35.80 176
40 [6] Kell 7 – AAAAA 7-2 65.12 49.66 68
41 [17] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 65.01 65.62 5
42 [12] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-4 64.78 62.33 12
43 [18] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-3 64.78 54.86 46
44 [19] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 8-2 64.49 41.93 114
45 [20] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-4 64.05 60.44 19
46 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 8-0 63.90 16.51 359
47 [13] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 5-4 63.85 56.59 33
48 [21] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 4-5 63.64 62.38 11
49 [22] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 7-2 63.51 52.27 58
50 [7] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 5-3 63.18 55.08 43
51 [14] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-3 63.02 50.49 67
52 [23] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 5-3-1 62.69 60.14 20
53 [24] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 7-2 62.53 47.07 81
54 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 9-0 62.36 36.00 170
55 [25] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-4 62.32 59.85 21
56 [8] Grady 6 – AAAAA 8-1 62.02 31.57 210
57 [26] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 6-3 61.88 55.12 42
58 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 7-2 61.84 44.19 98
59 [27] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 61.38 64.80 6
60 [5] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 8-1 60.73 37.47 152
61 [3] Peach County 4 – AAA 8-1 59.77 36.90 158
62 [28] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 5-4 59.39 57.33 30
63 [6] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 7-2 59.18 43.15 110
64 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 7-2 58.95 30.73 219
65 [29] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-5 58.62 61.73 14
66 [15] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 6-3 58.47 45.32 92
67 [9] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.59 37.66 150
68 [7] Troup 5 – AAAA 8-1 57.49 38.42 143
69 [5] Crisp County 1 – AAA 9-0 57.47 34.39 187
70 [8] Cairo 1 – AAAA 8-1 57.45 40.68 129
71 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 9-0 57.32 21.04 324
72 [10] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 6-3 57.17 51.41 63
73 [11] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 6-3 57.16 48.39 71
74 [16] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 56.92 43.44 109
75 [17] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 8-2 56.58 40.90 124
76 [9] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 56.51 36.20 169
77 [1] Macon County 4 – A 7-2 55.88 30.61 220
78 [6] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 7-2 55.81 32.17 207
79 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 4-5 54.77 59.36 23
80 [12] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 7-2 54.43 37.77 149
81 [18] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-3 54.38 45.55 91
82 [19] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 54.28 52.32 57
83 [7] Lovett 5 – AAA 6-3 53.83 39.77 133
84 [2] Manchester 4 – A 9-0 53.70 10.23 396
85 [10] Marist 7 – AAAA 6-3 53.24 43.48 107
86 [20] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-5 53.12 55.60 39
87 [13] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 8-1 53.08 20.99 326
88 [2] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 9-0 53.08 14.83 373
89 [11] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 7-2 52.77 37.15 154
90 [21] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 6-3 52.52 47.62 76
91 [3] Tattnall Square 7 – A 9-0 52.48 16.00 364
92 [12] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-4 52.34 46.04 89
93 [13] Eastside 4 – AAAA 6-2-1 51.35 35.91 175
94 [22] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-5 51.33 53.11 53
95 [14] Burke County 3 – AAAA 7-2 51.25 28.51 238
96 [23] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 6-3 51.10 40.75 128
97 [5] Pepperell 7 – AA 7-1 50.83 21.83 310
98 [31] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 4-5 50.69 51.72 59
99 [14] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 5-4 50.65 47.04 82
100 [32] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-6 50.41 56.11 36
101 [24] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.37 42.42 112
102 [25] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 6-3 50.34 38.74 140
103 [3] Clinch County 2 – A 8-1 50.30 21.47 317
104 [15] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-3 50.29 40.97 122
105 [15] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 7-2 50.15 36.58 161
106 [6] Jefferson County 4 – AA 9-0 50.07 12.47 381
107 [16] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 3-5 49.90 47.86 74
108 [26] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 6-4 49.79 44.02 101
109 [33] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 49.66 53.08 54
110 [4] Landmark Christian 5 – A 9-0 49.65 20.32 330
111 [16] Spalding 2 – AAAA 5-4 49.60 44.00 102
112 [34] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-5 49.56 54.53 47
113 [5] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 9-0 49.43 18.85 344
114 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 8-1 49.31 25.93 270
115 [35] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-6 48.97 67.92 3
116 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 7-2 48.73 31.18 217
117 [18] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 5-4 48.39 40.84 125
118 [27] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-6 48.36 58.46 24
119 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 8-0 48.34 6.22 410
120 [19] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 7-2 48.32 35.27 181
121 [20] Ola 4 – AAAAA 5-4 48.28 47.77 75
122 [28] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 47.97 43.89 104
123 [4] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 9-0 47.94 15.43 368
124 [9] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-4 47.80 46.94 83
125 [17] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 5-4 47.69 40.60 130
126 [18] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 7-1 47.30 26.82 261
127 [21] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 3-6 47.06 55.05 44
128 [7] Brooks County 1 – AA 6-3 46.94 40.77 127
129 [29] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 46.87 44.04 99
130 [36] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 46.70 64.54 8
131 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 7-2 46.67 27.92 249
132 [19] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 6-3 46.63 36.71 159
133 [7] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 8-1 46.57 18.84 345
134 [8] Wesleyan 5 – A 7-2 46.50 27.06 258
135 [37] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 5-4 45.87 41.11 119
136 [38] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-6 45.84 50.83 66
137 [30] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 4-5 45.83 43.57 106
138 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 4-4-1 45.27 46.48 86
139 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 7-1 45.15 25.30 279
140 [22] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-5 44.77 44.88 95
141 [5] Twiggs County 7 – A 7-2 44.77 27.03 259
142 [8] Thomasville 1 – AA 5-3 44.63 36.63 160
143 [21] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-4 43.84 38.42 144
144 [9] Spencer 5 – AA 6-3 43.70 33.45 197
145 [23] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 6-4 43.55 35.46 180
146 [10] Washington County 3 – AA 7-2 43.54 29.53 225
147 [31] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-2 43.46 33.28 199
148 [39] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 43.30 57.88 28
149 [12] Worth County 1 – AAA 6-3 42.94 36.40 164
150 [9] Darlington 6 – A 7-2 42.80 25.85 272
151 [24] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 3-6 42.28 54.90 45
152 [6] Taylor County 4 – A 8-1 41.83 11.01 388
153 [25] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-3 41.47 33.46 196
154 [13] Pierce County 2 – AAA 7-2 41.40 24.77 286
155 [22] West Hall 7 – AAAA 6-3 40.80 32.79 202
156 [26] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-8 40.62 53.38 51
157 [7] Irwin County 2 – A 6-3 40.46 25.92 271
158 [14] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-4 40.42 35.19 182
159 [27] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-5 40.39 47.47 80
160 [23] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 4-5 40.22 44.68 96
161 [11] Vidalia 2 – AA 7-2 40.18 26.30 268
162 [24] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-8 40.12 55.55 40
163 [12] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 6-3 40.03 32.27 205
164 [28] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-5 39.99 41.56 115
165 [10] Stratford Academy 7 – A 6-3 39.92 27.40 256
166 [25] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 5-3 39.84 39.73 135
167 [15] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 6-3 39.84 31.33 214
168 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-0 39.74 5.54 413
169 [32] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 7-2 39.66 22.98 298
170 [29] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 5-5 39.52 42.57 111
171 [13] Model 7 – AA 7-2 39.44 21.78 311
172 [9] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 6-2 39.31 19.64 341
173 [26] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 7-3 39.28 25.07 281
174 [27] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 1-8 38.91 55.70 38
175 [28] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 6-3 38.68 31.72 208
176 [16] Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 38.38 41.26 117
177 [10] Commerce 8 – A 7-2 38.26 16.44 360
178 [14] Rockmart 7 – AA 7-2 38.06 17.16 357
179 [33] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.70 35.78 177
180 [30] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 5-4 37.59 34.30 188
181 [29] Pickens 6 – AAAA 5-4 37.59 32.30 204
182 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-7 37.49 52.50 55
183 [34] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.47 33.23 200
184 [35] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 37.28 35.93 174
185 [31] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 4-5 37.06 37.90 148
186 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 7-2 37.05 20.22 332
187 [36] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 36.52 46.41 87
188 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 6-3 36.45 23.22 295
189 [15] Lamar County 5 – AA 5-4 36.45 37.12 155
190 [11] Bowdon 6 – A 6-3 35.79 23.18 296
191 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-4-1 35.48 35.54 179
192 [30] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-5 35.38 36.99 157
193 [16] Southwest 3 – AA 5-4 35.28 34.60 185
194 [31] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-3 35.05 28.75 235
195 [12] Athens Academy 8 – A 8-1 34.80 16.10 363
196 [37] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 2-7 34.78 56.40 34
197 [12] Dooly County 4 – A 5-4 34.61 30.27 222
198 [17] Chattooga 7 – AA 6-3 34.44 22.92 300
199 [32] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-6 34.41 40.80 126
200 [33] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-6 34.34 40.90 123
201 [18] Pike County 4 – AAA 5-4 34.33 33.43 198
202 [19] Jenkins 3 – AAA 8-1 34.33 12.17 384
203 [34] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-6 34.23 42.13 113
204 [20] Bremen 6 – AAA 5-4 33.90 26.53 266
205 [13] Turner County 2 – A 6-3 33.52 25.33 278
206 [13] Aquinas 7 – A 6-3 33.40 28.93 231
207 [38] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 33.23 48.22 72
208 [18] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-3 33.14 21.61 314
209 [14] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 4-5 33.11 33.92 193
210 [39] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-5 33.09 36.22 167
211 [33] Luella 4 – AAAA 4-5 32.97 38.52 141
212 [40] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 32.91 48.42 70
213 [35] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-4 32.60 28.47 240
214 [19] Dodge County 3 – AA 5-5 32.58 29.45 227
215 [20] Heard County 5 – AA 6-3 32.52 21.65 313
216 [14] George Walton Academy 8 – A 7-2 32.39 13.62 379
217 [15] Greene County 7 – A 6-3 32.32 26.16 269
218 [21] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-5 32.12 40.02 131
219 [21] Elbert County 8 – AA 6-2-1 32.06 16.25 361
220 [15] First Presbyterian 7 – A 6-3 31.95 22.35 306
221 [16] Mitchell County 1 – A 8-1 31.76 8.17 402
222 [22] Douglass 6 – AA 6-3 31.70 21.90 309
223 [22] Union County 7 – AAA 7-2 31.68 22.79 303
224 [16] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-3 31.66 19.84 335
225 [23] Brantley County 2 – AAA 5-3 31.50 27.57 251
226 [24] North Hall 7 – AAA 6-4 31.33 27.96 246
227 [41] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 31.11 51.56 60
228 [42] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-5 31.06 41.21 118
229 [41] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-7 30.99 48.94 69
230 [17] Lincoln County 7 – A 5-3-1 30.81 28.88 232
231 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-6 30.78 39.91 132
232 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 6-3 30.76 18.16 349
233 [23] Dublin 3 – AA 7-2 30.68 19.13 343
234 [24] Screven County 4 – AA 8-1 30.66 3.92 414
235 [43] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 5-4 30.65 28.49 239
236 [42] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 3-4-1 30.49 33.67 194
237 [25] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-4 30.39 31.22 216
238 [36] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 5-4 30.36 27.44 254
239 [43] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 3-6 30.08 41.02 121
240 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-4 29.94 26.59 264
241 [18] Pelham 1 – A 8-1 29.82 8.71 400
242 [25] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-2 28.68 18.35 347
243 [37] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-7 28.51 45.00 94
244 [44] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-6 28.46 36.47 162
245 [18] Savannah Christian 3 – A 6-2 28.23 15.37 369
246 [38] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-6 28.20 36.32 165
247 [39] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-6 27.98 36.21 168
248 [19] Marion County 4 – A 7-2 27.91 8.70 401
249 [45] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-8 27.83 54.33 48
250 [20] Miller County 1 – A 7-2 27.78 10.71 391
251 [46] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 4-5 27.48 29.02 230
252 [21] Telfair County 2 – A 5-3 26.99 20.46 329
253 [35] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-4 26.66 25.76 274
254 [27] Savannah 3 – AAA 6-2 26.64 7.11 408
255 [47] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 26.59 43.78 105
256 [40] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 4-5 26.43 31.23 215
257 [41] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 4-5 26.33 30.50 221
258 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 5-4 25.11 24.39 287
259 [37] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 6-3 25.08 11.13 387
260 [48] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 25.07 55.72 37
261 [22] Trion 6 – A 5-4 24.93 18.11 350
262 [42] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 4-5 24.74 23.87 290
263 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 4-5 24.74 27.67 250
264 [49] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-8 24.46 39.22 138
265 [23] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 7-2 24.43 9.18 398
266 [26] Laney 4 – AA 4-5 24.11 22.87 301
267 [24] Terrell County 1 – A 6-3 24.09 13.82 378
268 [28] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-7 24.04 36.44 163
269 [38] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 4-5 23.38 32.34 203
270 [29] Adairsville 6 – AAA 3-6 23.32 33.51 195
271 [44] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-9 23.25 51.02 64
272 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-7-1 23.23 46.06 88
273 [39] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-6 23.21 29.87 223
274 [45] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 23.05 45.72 90
275 [30] North Murray 6 – AAA 6-3 22.79 10.60 394
276 [27] Berrien 1 – AA 4-4 22.58 26.79 263
277 [50] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-6-1 22.19 33.99 192
278 [51] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 21.94 38.30 145
279 [52] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-4 21.88 17.67 352
280 [25] Warren County 7 – A 4-5 21.86 25.33 277
281 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 3-6 21.84 31.71 209
282 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 5-4 21.80 17.55 353
283 [31] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 4-5 21.77 22.21 307
284 [28] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-8 21.44 34.09 190
285 [32] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-5 21.12 25.37 276
286 [33] Ringgold 6 – AAA 5-4 20.41 17.51 354
287 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-4 20.21 18.30 348
288 [34] Redan 5 – AAA 3-6 20.18 35.02 183
289 [40] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-8 20.12 39.77 134
290 [45] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 1-8 19.89 43.99 103
291 [35] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 4-4 19.82 17.42 355
292 [36] Franklin County 8 – AAA 3-6 19.71 26.45 267
293 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-8 19.51 47.48 79
294 [53] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-8 19.29 41.43 116
295 [29] Therrell 6 – AA 3-6 19.28 26.56 265
296 [30] Washington 6 – AA 3-6 19.06 29.76 224
297 [26] Charlton County 2 – A 2-6 18.90 28.76 234
298 [41] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-8 18.86 37.38 153
299 [54] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-7 18.52 34.29 189
300 [55] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 17.92 60.85 18
301 [31] Swainsboro 2 – AA 3-6 17.80 28.65 237
302 [42] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-9 17.75 44.60 97
303 [32] Early County 1 – AA 0-8-1 17.43 41.09 120
304 [33] Temple 5 – AA 6-3 17.33 10.80 390
305 [37] Towers 5 – AAA 3-6 16.93 28.19 244
306 [43] White County 7 – AAAA 1-8 16.85 36.29 166
307 [38] East Hall 7 – AAA 2-7 16.84 28.73 236
308 [22] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 3-6 16.65 37.97 147
309 [47] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-5-1 15.85 22.80 302
310 [39] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-3 15.84 5.70 412
311 [34] South Atlanta 6 – AA 3-7 15.68 23.46 292
312 [40] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-7 15.68 34.03 191
313 [27] Crawford County 4 – A 4-4 15.39 19.77 337
314 [48] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-9 15.26 43.45 108
315 [23] Brookstone 4 – A 4-5 15.19 19.79 336
316 [28] Seminole County 1 – A 4-4-1 15.02 12.18 382
317 [29] Gordon Lee 6 – A 4-4 14.97 14.95 372
318 [41] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 3-6 14.77 23.06 297
319 [24] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 5-3 14.70 6.88 409
320 [25] Walker 6 – A 3-6 14.35 24.97 284
321 [35] Banks County 8 – AA 5-4 14.24 10.67 393
322 [36] Coosa 7 – AA 3-6 13.88 27.50 252
323 [30] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-6 13.84 21.32 319
324 [49] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-6 13.37 22.18 308
325 [37] Northeast 3 – AA 1-8 13.29 31.36 213
326 [56] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-5 13.13 21.53 315
327 [44] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 5-4 13.10 9.38 397
328 [31] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-7 12.98 31.50 212
329 [45] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-9 12.79 39.60 136
330 [42] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-6 12.72 19.72 339
331 [43] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-7-1 12.70 34.41 186
332 [38] Bryan County 2 – AA 3-5 12.01 20.24 331
333 [50] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 3-6 12.01 22.37 305
334 [32] Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-6 11.71 26.80 262
335 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-9 11.46 39.50 137
336 [51] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-9 10.56 38.51 142
337 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-4 10.28 7.50 404
338 [39] Monticello 8 – AA 3-6 10.23 21.46 318
339 [40] Albany 1 – AA 0-9 10.21 35.70 178
340 [41] Metter 2 – AA 2-6 10.05 25.00 283
341 [42] Bacon County 2 – AA 1-7 9.69 29.24 228
342 [52] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-9 9.59 37.01 156
343 [33] Treutlen 3 – A 5-4 9.56 7.35 406
344 [45] Long County 2 – AAA 1-5-2 9.31 24.06 289
345 [43] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-6 9.30 20.87 327
346 [47] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-5 9.24 14.03 377
347 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-8 9.19 37.53 151
348 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-7 8.82 33.03 201
349 [46] East Jackson 8 – AAA 3-6 8.77 16.88 358
350 [34] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-3 8.56 0.82 416
351 [35] Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-8 7.63 27.31 257
352 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-7 7.56 27.42 255
353 [48] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 3-6 7.47 21.16 322
354 [36] Schley County 4 – A 3-6 7.29 17.40 356
355 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 2-7 7.11 24.80 285
356 [54] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-8 7.06 26.90 260
357 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-7 6.59 35.94 173
358 [48] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-7 6.19 27.93 248
359 [27] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-7 6.01 27.45 253
360 [37] Johnson County 3 – A 4-5 5.90 8.71 399
361 [44] Dade County 7 – AA 2-6 5.52 29.51 226
362 [38] Towns County 8 – A 2-7 5.35 27.94 247
363 [45] Josey 4 – AA 4-5 5.34 8.05 403
364 [39] Montgomery County 3 – A 3-6 5.34 13.59 380
365 [28] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-6 5.01 23.49 291
366 [40] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-7 4.77 19.60 342
367 [46] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-8 4.73 22.77 304
368 [41] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-4 3.97 3.59 415
369 [47] Jordan 5 – AA 0-9 3.42 35.97 171
370 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-8 3.07 28.46 241
371 [49] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-7 3.07 20.70 328
372 [29] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-7 2.96 23.41 293
373 [49] Islands 3 – AAA 3-6 2.82 14.18 376
374 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-7 2.79 21.14 323
375 [50] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-5 2.51 7.23 407
376 [51] McNair 5 – AAA 3-6 2.14 18.40 346
377 [50] Butler 4 – AA 3-6 2.06 12.14 385
378 [51] Harlem 4 – AA 2-7 1.20 15.49 367
379 [50] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-9 1.11 32.20 206
380 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-8 0.85 25.67 275
381 [42] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-8 0.73 25.77 273
382 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 2-8 0.41 21.48 316
383 [30] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 3-6 0.20 15.15 370
384 [52] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 3-6 0.18 15.04 371
385 [51] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-9 -1.00 34.64 184
386 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-5 -1.81 -0.36 417
387 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-8 -1.89 30.84 218
388 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-8 -2.55 21.68 312
389 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-8 -3.38 22.94 299
390 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-7 -5.15 19.76 338
391 [32] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-8 -5.20 24.14 288
392 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-7 -5.67 12.09 386
393 [54] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -5.82 14.68 374
394 [44] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-8 -6.03 17.90 351
395 [45] Claxton 3 – A 0-8 -6.22 28.36 242
396 [33] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-7 -7.25 25.17 280
397 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -7.81 28.16 245
398 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 2-7 -7.94 7.46 405
399 [46] Portal 3 – A 0-8 -9.04 23.26 294
400 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-9 -9.58 28.31 243
401 [47] Greenville 4 – A 1-8 -10.75 28.86 233
402 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-8 -13.00 21.29 320
403 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-8 -13.92 10.82 389
404 [49] Stewart County 1 – A 2-7 -14.25 15.86 365
405 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-8 -14.61 14.56 375
406 [34] St. Francis 6 – A 1-8 -14.88 21.19 321
407 [35] Pacelli 4 – A 1-8 -15.88 15.82 366
408 [36] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-9 -16.41 19.84 334
409 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-9 -17.32 12.17 383
410 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-10 -17.47 47.95 73
411 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-7 -18.43 10.67 392
412 [50] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-8 -21.46 16.11 362
413 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-9 -24.41 10.30 395
414 [51] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-9 -25.39 20.10 333
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-9 -26.16 21.00 325
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 2-5 -26.19 -10.11 418
417 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-8 -29.84 6.09 411
418 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-9 -30.66 19.66 340
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 1-3 -46.27 -36.71 420
420 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-5 -48.00 -25.14 419

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 8 – AAAAAAA 87.59 62.74
2 1 – AAAAAA 87.02 71.96
3 1 – AAAAAAA 86.49 68.88
4 4 – AAAAAAA 85.73 67.26
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.49 63.12
6 6 – AAAAAAA 78.42 54.42
7 7 – AAAAAAA 77.56 47.55
8 5 – AAAAAA 74.75 54.36
9 5 – AAAA 74.18 52.07
10 6 – AAAAAA 73.72 53.48
11 5 – AAAAAAA 70.96 54.84
12 4 – AAAAA 68.88 48.39
13 7 – AAAAA 67.30 45.49
14 2 – AAAAAA 66.53 47.88
15 2 – AAAAAAA 66.47 49.31
16 1 – AAAAA 62.06 46.73
17 8 – AAAA 61.34 43.09
18 8 – AAAAA 60.95 35.35
19 2 – AAAA 59.78 42.22
20 5 – AAA 59.54 33.04
21 8 – AAAAAA 59.00 41.77
22 7 – AAAA 58.67 38.64
23 3 – AAAA 58.48 21.96
24 7 – AAAAAA 58.09 38.79
25 3 – AAAAA 57.94 39.77
26 1 – AA 57.70 33.65
27 4 – AAAAAA 56.48 38.11
28 1 – AAA 56.31 38.63
29 4 – AAAA 55.78 28.82
30 1 – AAAA 55.73 39.24
31 5 – AA 54.68 32.89
32 4 – AAA 54.12 34.05
33 7 – AAA 53.67 29.68
34 6 – AAAAA 52.40 30.63
35 5 – A 51.80 26.20
36 2 – AAAAA 49.70 23.86
37 2 – AAA 48.87 30.87
38 2 – AA 47.22 21.61
39 6 – A 46.63 22.13
6 – Div B – A 47.29 20.89
6 – Div A – A 45.93 23.31
40 7 – AA 45.71 21.40
41 4 – A 45.47 18.22
4 – Div B – A 49.87 26.80
4 – Div A – A 38.13 5.91
42 6 – AAAA 45.21 23.56
43 7 – A 45.20 29.49
7 – Div A – A 52.12 32.05
7 – Div B – A 39.10 27.85
44 2 – A 44.21 22.72
45 3 – AAAAAA 44.15 28.14
46 3 – AA 43.01 23.73
47 8 – A 42.98 21.95
48 6 – AAA 42.67 19.86
6 – South – AAA 53.80 32.57
6 – North – AAA 27.04 6.28
49 6 – AA 40.84 24.88
50 8 – AA 39.74 11.08
51 5 – AAAAA 39.27 22.27
52 3 – A 38.08 13.92
3 – Div A – A 44.37 20.04
3 – Div B – A 29.59 10.34
53 4 – AA 35.26 10.17
54 8 – AAA 33.78 16.90
55 1 – A 32.14 13.78
56 3 – AAA 28.48 5.85

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 27.33 93.9% 0.112
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 17.22 84.8% 0.207
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 19.72 87.8% 0.214
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 – 21 16.13 83.4% 0.234
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 11.89 76.6% 0.261
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 16.23 83.5% 0.262
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 15.01 81.8% 0.264
10/24 Brunswick Bradwell Institute 18 – 21 13.83 80.0% 0.287
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 14.45 80.9% 0.288
09/02 West Laurens Dodge County 0 – 3 12.77 78.2% 0.303
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 12.96 78.5% 0.311
08/26 Veterans Dublin 20 – 21 12.57 77.9% 0.317
10/14 Thomas County Central Veterans 28 – 33 10.89 74.8% 0.325
09/09 Bradwell Institute Warren County 16 – 24 10.14 73.4% 0.326
09/23 Bradwell Institute Long County 22 – 22 19.66 87.7% 0.328

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.71 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 17.26 84.9%
84.95 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 5.61 63.7%
84.80 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 12.07 77.0%
82.73 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 1.20 53.0%
78.22 10/21 Dalton Harrison 31 – 14 4.69 61.5%
77.81 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 35 8.35 69.7%
77.77 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 8.04 69.1%
77.26 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 18.36 86.2%
76.77 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 11.32 75.6%
76.01 08/27 Stockbridge Mays 35 – 34 0.35 50.9%
75.95 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 10.03 73.2%
75.67 09/02 Harrison North Cobb 25 – 13 3.81 59.4%
73.97 10/21 Valdosta Lee County 27 – 7 10.51 74.1%
73.01 10/28 Mays Alexander 31 – 28 5.62 63.7%
72.37 08/26 Harrison Rome 22 – 20 8.00 69.0%

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