Maxwell playoff projections after Week 10

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


10

Class AAAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.Wesl

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
4 – AAAAAAA 165,040 834,960 75,023 1,931 11 351,658 648,342 2,817 353,425 1.83
8 – AAAAAAA 211,314 788,686 104,359 2,819 21 448,768 551,232 10,495 351,955 1.84
6 – AAAAAAA 374,904 625,096 38,185 621 2 725,542 274,458 2,102 134,712 6.42
7 – AAAAAAA 474,323 525,677 37,869 782 3 794,666 205,334 1,529 69,270 13.44
1 – AAAAAAA 566,831 433,169 60,615 1,189 1 838,887 161,113 5,647 49,465 19.22
3 – AAAAAAA 625,308 374,692 33,712 367 1 872,658 127,342 2,475 40,731 23.55
5 – AAAAAAA 965,612 34,388 291 1 995,354 4,646 3 281 3,557.72
2 – AAAAAAA 974,561 25,439 92 997,535 2,465 161 6,210.18

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 8-0 94.37 1,000,000 916,177 835,703 641,594 352,651 1.84
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 7-1 96.38 1,000,000 932,296 769,214 540,166 349,360 1.86
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 9-0 90.77 1,000,000 819,531 599,607 266,670 133,877 6.47
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 8-0 86.08 1,000,000 631,230 485,645 194,125 67,706 13.77
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 7-1 84.64 1,000,000 765,215 310,098 103,281 37,012 26.02
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 84.56 1,000,000 608,355 260,056 100,541 33,884 28.51
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-1 80.33 1,000,000 434,596 211,609 61,508 15,177 64.89
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-2 74.18 1,000,000 428,962 86,746 25,201 3,652 272.82
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 3-5 73.01 976,502 317,607 85,015 15,634 2,082 479.31
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 6-2 71.56 1,000,000 212,015 47,764 8,426 1,015 984.22
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 5-3 71.10 999,996 182,962 30,344 4,282 549 1,820.49
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 4-4 68.27 948,524 188,684 34,901 4,900 475 2,104.26
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 6-2 68.94 998,498 152,444 33,071 4,712 454 2,201.64
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 68.02 916,145 199,388 23,085 4,699 403 2,480.39
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-2 69.24 977,488 154,618 31,571 4,002 400 2,499.00
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 7-2 66.78 999,961 68,746 23,060 4,283 302 3,310.26
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 66.67 1,000,000 131,348 30,566 4,104 300 3,332.33
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.37 1,000,000 249,496 22,399 3,698 191 5,234.60
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.48 1,000,000 157,104 20,958 2,108 141 7,091.20
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-3 65.79 999,969 69,592 7,873 672 65 15,383.62
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 64.83 974,029 62,360 10,918 1,236 63 15,872.02
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 4-3-1 63.69 965,261 30,405 8,574 1,215 59 16,948.15
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 3-5 66.10 882,268 35,447 6,325 707 58 17,240.38
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 62.55 1,000,000 67,458 8,616 1,016 46 21,738.13
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-2 63.16 996,340 43,485 4,000 266 25 39,999.00
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 65.39 941,685 41,756 3,299 318 21 47,618.05
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 6-2 62.81 999,972 23,420 3,954 334 19 52,630.58
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-4 60.83 377,918 23,397 2,057 154 6 166,665.67
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-5 60.28 333,752 13,317 1,112 69 5 199,999.00
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-6 52.44 183,241 6,023 223 12 1 999,999.00
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 4-4 51.82 975,919 5,204 347 9 1 999,999.00
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 50.69 1,000,000 20,430 578 30
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-5 50.60 695,428 2,130 267 14
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 3-5 52.93 452,454 1,426 189 8
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-4 51.96 596,035 1,967 218 5
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-5 49.76 154,356 505 12 1
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-6 50.06 110,838 504 11
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 46.41 205,246 277 10
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 4-4 38.79 328,687 123 5
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 4-4 33.73 7,846
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-6 37.19 1,066
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-4 31.60 414
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 24.03 130
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-8 20.87 31
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-7 -0.55 1
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 32.61
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 9.64
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-9 -18.22

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 At Large Out
1 – AAAAAAA Colquitt County 637,488 362,512
1 – AAAAAAA Lowndes 362,512 637,488
1 – AAAAAAA Tift County 816,759 99,386 83,855
1 – AAAAAAA Camden County 183,241 816,759
2 – AAAAAAA Westlake 960,709 36,950 2,341
2 – AAAAAAA East Coweta 2,440 881,163 86,741 29,591 37 28
2 – AAAAAAA Wheeler 36,851 57,673 793,980 87,415 24,081
2 – AAAAAAA Newnan 24,081 28,986 642,361 304,572
2 – AAAAAAA Pebblebrook 133 87,952 240,602 671,313
2 – AAAAAAA Campbell 31 999,969
3 – AAAAAAA McEachern 913,261 84,559 1,885 295
3 – AAAAAAA North Cobb 63,363 684,974 251,363 300
3 – AAAAAAA Hillgrove 23,376 230,465 746,159
3 – AAAAAAA North Paulding 844,578 97,107 58,315
3 – AAAAAAA Marietta 2 326 154,028 845,644
3 – AAAAAAA Kennesaw Mountain 267 799 998,934
4 – AAAAAAA Roswell 934,014 63,859 2,127
4 – AAAAAAA Cherokee 51,278 555,656 143,265 249,801
4 – AAAAAAA Woodstock 14,708 14,127 731,678 170,201 43,315 25,971
4 – AAAAAAA Lassiter 366,358 101,377 336,951 172,802 22,512
4 – AAAAAAA Etowah 172,803 205,115 622,082
4 – AAAAAAA Walton 21,553 70,244 241,955 666,248
5 – AAAAAAA Lambert 991,480 5,715 2,805
5 – AAAAAAA South Forsyth 5,524 595,030 374,563 24,775 77 31
5 – AAAAAAA West Forsyth 2,996 397,168 515,063 66,949 14,164 3,660
5 – AAAAAAA North Forsyth 1,428 88,354 478,384 27,869 403,965
5 – AAAAAAA Milton 659 18,909 429,784 3,102 547,546
5 – AAAAAAA Forsyth Central 306 108 999,586
6 – AAAAAAA Mill Creek 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAAA Mountain View 869,148 121,609 9,145 59 39
6 – AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 120,497 782,520 9,437 36,070 51,476
6 – AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 10,209 84,508 787,551 117,732
6 – AAAAAAA Collins Hill 146 11,254 193,846 794,754
6 – AAAAAAA Discovery 109 21 999,870
6 – AAAAAAA Duluth 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAAA Norcross 831,625 168,375
7 – AAAAAAA Brookwood 168,375 831,625
7 – AAAAAAA Parkview 878,081 121,915 4
7 – AAAAAAA Central Gwinnett 121,919 878,081
7 – AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 3 7,843 992,154
7 – AAAAAAA Meadowcreek 1 999,999
7 – AAAAAAA Berkmar 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAAA Grayson 976,379 23,621
8 – AAAAAAA Archer 624,491 99,965 251,974 72 23,498
8 – AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 23,621 321,595 129,299 517,132 6,851 1,502
8 – AAAAAAA Newton 21,556 765,204 134,325 44,176 34,739
8 – AAAAAAA Shiloh 8,737 5,532 96,569 889,162
8 – AAAAAAA Rockdale County 1,000,000

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAA 34,424 965,576 689,820 166,627 11,808 158,889 841,111 345,428 695,856 0.44
6 – AAAAAA 199,818 800,182 285,227 13,639 68 592,064 407,936 48,704 204,541 3.89
5 – AAAAAA 490,477 509,523 105,902 7,269 156 792,320 207,680 10,279 69,165 13.46
2 – AAAAAA 783,197 216,803 7,455 24 917,221 82,779 161 19,394 50.56
4 – AAAAAA 854,404 145,596 2,929 11 956,092 43,908 28 9,413 105.24
8 – AAAAAA 947,603 52,397 507 990,546 9,454 4 1,413 706.71
7 – AAAAAA 981,784 18,216 92 997,478 2,522 2 218 4,586.16
3 – AAAAAA 999,827 173 999,996 4

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 7-1 87.12 999,701 903,854 844,325 621,274 440,113 1.27
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 82.73 1,000,000 867,909 703,837 483,832 233,809 3.28
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 8-0 79.98 1,000,000 909,180 648,724 270,332 141,551 6.06
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 7-1 76.77 996,577 683,640 396,949 175,084 61,452 15.27
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 75.15 1,000,000 555,825 273,865 107,069 36,724 26.23
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 8-0 73.82 1,000,000 578,070 251,764 87,670 27,957 34.77
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 7-1 70.75 1,000,000 700,572 201,383 80,555 19,189 51.11
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 73.02 993,781 459,030 187,231 61,467 17,895 54.88
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 7-1 69.82 1,000,000 342,211 136,687 43,070 9,354 105.91
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-3 66.68 990,979 337,035 97,327 19,765 3,985 249.94
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 65.73 1,000,000 113,415 48,835 11,715 2,257 442.07
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-2 65.77 1,000,000 104,097 48,388 11,505 2,227 448.03
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 4-4 63.74 999,923 277,398 49,413 10,917 1,514 659.50
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-2 62.12 1,000,000 373,105 45,667 8,868 1,379 724.16
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-2 56.21 991,415 237,534 18,996 2,181 192 5,207.33
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 57.48 1,000,000 16,535 7,599 962 110 9,089.91
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 6-2 57.91 1,000,000 30,680 8,750 1,442 103 9,707.74
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 65.01 15,539 4,748 1,112 201 54 18,517.52
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 5-3 52.51 1,000,000 142,488 7,268 573 35 28,570.43
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 51.92 1,000,000 116,759 6,425 549 34 29,410.76
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 5-4 51.30 1,000,000 41,649 4,528 293 24 41,665.67
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-4 53.86 255,499 40,143 2,081 174 17 58,822.53
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-4 50.99 917,843 19,860 2,091 114 8 124,999.00
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-5 48.86 618,032 50,541 1,749 125 7 142,856.14
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-1 48.07 997,702 39,748 1,811 90 5 199,999.00
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 5-3 52.11 888,864 16,171 1,387 91 4 249,999.00
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 49.05 993,825 7,947 571 29 1 999,999.00
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 47.89 996,661 11,987 723 39
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 5-3 46.05 129,969 7,185 197 8
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 6-2 39.72 1,000,000 2,425 90 2
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 39.15 997,497 1,672 69 2
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 38.19 604,657 1,729 54 2
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 38.02 604,281 2,438 38
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 37.94 391,048 962 35
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 35.69 250,822 675 15
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 31.46 1,000,000 380 10
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 29.11 680,565 77 3
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 3-5 32.24 144,897 177 1
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 2-3-1 26.13 93,040 18 1
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-3 24.59 282,418 7 1
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 4-4 37.54 117,311 123
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-5-1 22.19 7,634 1
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 14.63 39,520
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-4 57.99
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 5-3 55.50
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 35.07
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-7 33.74
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 31.05
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-6 30.45
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-8 30.17
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 28.26
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-7 26.26
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 26.09
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 25.07
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-7 22.23
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 21.61
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 1-7 7.40
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 1-8 0.49

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAAA Valdosta 957,004 4,931 34,542 3,224 299
1 – AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 8,914 980,294 10,252 540
1 – AAAAAA Lee County 629,934 363,847 6,219
1 – AAAAAA Coffee 34,082 14,235 320,394 622,268 9,021
1 – AAAAAA Houston County 540 4,878 10,121 984,461
2 – AAAAAA Glynn Academy 833,986 165,663 260 91
2 – AAAAAA Effingham County 148,533 598,631 178,017 66,234 8,585
2 – AAAAAA Richmond Hill 17,439 227,508 325,646 427,109 2,298
2 – AAAAAA Brunswick 6,464 489,115 422,264 82,157
2 – AAAAAA Bradwell Institute 42 1,734 6,962 84,302 906,960
3 – AAAAAA Evans 480,411 377,764 141,825
3 – AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 244,047 337,238 405,346 10,866 2,503
3 – AAAAAA Lakeside (Evans) 275,542 278,596 262,219 183,643
3 – AAAAAA Grovetown 6,402 186,057 488,106 319,435
3 – AAAAAA Greenbrier 282,418 717,582
3 – AAAAAA Alcovy 4,553 34,967 960,480
4 – AAAAAA Tucker 892,165 63,650 44,185
4 – AAAAAA Lovejoy 43,783 892,453 63,764
4 – AAAAAA Stephenson 64,052 43,897 892,051
4 – AAAAAA Drew 604,281 395,719
4 – AAAAAA Jonesboro 250,822 749,178
4 – AAAAAA Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 144,897 855,103
4 – AAAAAA Forest Park 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA M.L. King 1,000,000
4 – AAAAAA Mundy’s Mill 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Alexander 488,835 501,401 9,764
5 – AAAAAA Mays 501,401 361,018 108,420 29,161
5 – AAAAAA Northgate 9,764 79,358 406,336 504,542
5 – AAAAAA Hughes 58,223 475,480 466,297
5 – AAAAAA Creekside 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Douglas County 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA South Paulding 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA Tri-Cities 1,000,000
5 – AAAAAA New Manchester 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA Dalton 904,015 95,408 577
6 – AAAAAA Harrison 72,154 888,124 30,536 5,763 3,423
6 – AAAAAA Allatoona 23,831 4,486 948,721 22,885 77
6 – AAAAAA Sequoyah 11,982 19,896 586,154 381,968
6 – AAAAAA Creekview 77 255,422 744,501
6 – AAAAAA Sprayberry 193 129,776 870,031
6 – AAAAAA Osborne 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA River Ridge 1,000,000
6 – AAAAAA South Cobb 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Johns Creek 952,690 3,064 43,720 526
7 – AAAAAA Centennial 47,310 952,690
7 – AAAAAA Alpharetta 35,063 768,213 85,588 111,136
7 – AAAAAA Cambridge 9,183 188,067 796,575 6,175
7 – AAAAAA Chattahoochee 117,311 882,689
7 – AAAAAA Dunwoody 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA North Atlanta 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Northview 1,000,000
7 – AAAAAA Pope 1,000,000
8 – AAAAAA Lanier 606,647 345,453 47,900
8 – AAAAAA Dacula 372,699 548,113 68,111 11,077
8 – AAAAAA Gainesville 20,654 47,900 862,749 65,358 3,339
8 – AAAAAA Winder-Barrow 58,534 17,653 528,470 395,343
8 – AAAAAA Habersham Central 391,048 608,952
8 – AAAAAA Apalachee 3,587 4,047 992,366

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
4 – AAAAA 103,474 896,526 299,788 18,111 109 341,881 658,119 80,996 421,141 1.37
8 – AAAAA 376,345 623,655 66,143 245 563,415 436,585 5,664 258,892 2.86
7 – AAAAA 230,981 769,019 326,092 53,805 202 562,529 437,471 53,421 200,543 3.99
2 – AAAAA 619,207 380,793 1,169 848,508 151,492 61,878 15.16
6 – AAAAA 682,017 317,983 11,042 9 871,762 128,238 620 49,393 19.25
3 – AAAAA 907,847 92,153 2,775 27 981,247 18,753 30 3,406 292.60
1 – AAAAA 918,441 81,559 2,257 22 982,821 17,179 31 3,111 320.44
5 – AAAAA 943,695 56,305 213 988,600 11,400 1 1,636 610.25

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 8-0 76.08 1,000,000 909,225 831,693 593,546 366,881 1.73
Buford 8 – AAAAA 7-1 76.05 1,000,000 831,249 615,152 428,041 256,628 2.90
Rome 7 – AAAAA 6-2 70.49 1,000,000 823,940 404,869 205,924 93,492 9.70
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 7-1 67.29 1,000,000 817,867 430,825 165,775 64,067 14.61
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 4-3 68.08 1,000,000 670,633 381,864 151,491 61,878 15.16
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 6-2 68.53 997,436 502,202 304,250 124,982 50,275 18.89
Grady 6 – AAAAA 7-1 68.10 1,000,000 501,411 297,636 123,418 48,739 19.52
Kell 7 – AAAAA 6-2 66.64 1,000,000 763,039 309,887 118,947 42,971 22.27
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 6-2 58.51 1,000,000 198,466 72,348 19,931 3,915 254.43
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.85 1,000,000 281,057 63,397 14,908 3,003 332.00
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 6-3 57.69 1,000,000 226,876 52,896 13,314 2,726 365.84
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 7-1 55.86 1,000,000 257,683 70,968 13,851 2,245 444.43
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 7-1 53.23 1,000,000 394,032 54,894 11,309 1,632 611.75
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 6-2 51.56 1,000,000 64,531 30,841 5,416 652 1,532.74
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2-5 50.94 934,660 126,056 17,178 2,505 272 3,675.47
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 6-2 49.09 988,619 160,393 16,841 2,120 231 4,328.00
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 4-4 49.35 908,032 101,510 11,594 1,499 150 6,665.67
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 2-6 46.58 990,230 98,653 8,011 838 75 13,332.33
Ola 4 – AAAAA 4-4 48.50 980,558 38,468 6,003 622 67 14,924.37
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-4 46.68 1,000,000 62,585 5,732 551 38 26,314.79
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-2 45.00 953,215 33,893 2,986 246 22 45,453.55
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 5-4 44.63 1,000,000 12,656 3,909 356 19 52,630.58
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 3-5 44.17 252,160 25,932 1,562 117 10 99,999.00
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 5-3 39.33 1,000,000 34,374 1,617 92 4 249,999.00
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-3 50.59 22,006 1,439 241 34 3 333,332.33
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-5 39.85 575,155 32,354 1,374 84 2 499,999.00
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-3 37.36 799,367 5,866 374 17 2 499,999.00
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-4 41.58 172,685 12,419 601 45 1 999,999.00
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-3-1 38.02 150,134 3,483 136 10
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 4-4 36.74 888,961 3,169 177 7
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-5 35.33 75,110 675 22 2
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-6 31.76 1,000,000 2,004 78 1
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-5 28.30 607,112 278 11 1
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-8 21.73 818,272 164 12
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 4-4 28.09 270,411 277 7
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-5 24.20 982,196 619 5
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-5-1 19.39 930,715 115 5
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-8 14.47 251,013 17 2
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-5 18.91 931,207 239 1
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-5 28.42 389,504 137 1
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 2-6 22.61 41,261 8
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-7 8.65 80,656 3
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-6 29.60 3,384 2
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-6 12.67 5,941 1
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 4-4 48.61
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-5 40.60
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-7 40.16
Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-5 36.60
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-5 29.28
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-6-1 23.92
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-7 19.95
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-8 15.62
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-7 12.20
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-7 12.13
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-8 10.52
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-8 -6.75
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 1-7 -23.18
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 1-4 -40.10

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAAA Thomas County Central 561,491 310,656 119,351 8,502
1 – AAAAA Veterans 300,010 116,807 124,013 459,170
1 – AAAAA Bainbridge 121,072 391,517 274,299 147,772 65,340
1 – AAAAA Warner Robins 16,073 173,926 476,826 323,405 9,770
1 – AAAAA Harris County 1,354 7,094 5,511 61,151 924,890
2 – AAAAA Ware County 977,082 22,794 124
2 – AAAAA Wayne County 22,314 937,044 33,396 7,246
2 – AAAAA New Hampstead 604 8,819 490,211 431,081 69,285
2 – AAAAA South Effingham 424,328 393,944 181,728
2 – AAAAA Statesboro 31,343 51,941 167,729 748,987
3 – AAAAA Whitewater 400,037 426,867 151,905 9,810 11,381
3 – AAAAA Griffin 422,832 259,932 184,891 132,345
3 – AAAAA Starr’s Mill 154,560 218,758 288,903 245,811 91,968
3 – AAAAA Riverdale 22,571 58,692 353,694 518,258 46,785
3 – AAAAA Fayette County 35,751 20,607 93,776 849,866
3 – AAAAA McIntosh 1,000,000
3 – AAAAA Morrow 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Stockbridge 932,201 41,671 26,128
4 – AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 26,032 926,924 41,352 3,128 2,564
4 – AAAAA Jones County 41,767 31,188 926,927 118
4 – AAAAA Ola 980,558 19,442
4 – AAAAA Locust Grove 217 5,593 16,196 977,994
4 – AAAAA Dutchtown 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Eagle’s Landing 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Union Grove 1,000,000
4 – AAAAA Hampton 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Arabia Mountain 807,720 184,000 8,280
5 – AAAAA Southwest DeKalb 190,305 807,720 1,975
5 – AAAAA Lithonia 1,975 6,882 610,304 363,035 17,804
5 – AAAAA Miller Grove 1,398 379,441 550,368 68,793
5 – AAAAA Chamblee 80,656 919,344
5 – AAAAA Columbia 5,941 994,059
5 – AAAAA Clarkston 1,000,000
5 – AAAAA Cross Keys 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Grady 966,421 31,900 267 1,412
6 – AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 32,356 966,215 1,422 7
6 – AAAAA Banneker 1,223 1,884 754,485 41,775 200,633
6 – AAAAA Riverwood 1 107,097 781,863 111,039
6 – AAAAA North Springs 136,729 133,682 729,589
6 – AAAAA Maynard Jackson 41,261 958,739
6 – AAAAA Decatur 1,000,000
6 – AAAAA Lithia Springs 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Carrollton 824,654 72,860 101,284 1,202
7 – AAAAA Kell 102,324 440,043 457,633
7 – AAAAA Rome 73,022 487,097 439,734 147
7 – AAAAA Villa Rica 575,155 424,845
7 – AAAAA East Paulding 147 252,013 747,840
7 – AAAAA Paulding County 1,202 171,483 827,315
7 – AAAAA Cass 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Hiram 1,000,000
7 – AAAAA Woodland (Cartersville) 1,000,000
8 – AAAAA Buford 896,539 103,461
8 – AAAAA Loganville 103,461 896,539
8 – AAAAA Clarke Central 855,427 144,573
8 – AAAAA Walnut Grove 144,573 462,539 392,888
8 – AAAAA Cedar Shoals 389,504 610,496
8 – AAAAA Flowery Branch 3,384 996,616
8 – AAAAA Johnson (Gainesville) 1,000,000

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
5 – AAAA 149,397 850,603 346,175 59,753 3,591 234,082 765,918 82,967 590,101 0.69
3 – AAAA 241,235 758,765 14,963 6 348,055 651,945 2,060 259,779 2.85
4 – AAAA 713,494 286,506 14,701 21 785,890 214,110 3,493 106,326 8.41
8 – AAAA 465,281 534,719 93,931 1,644 6 874,213 125,787 2,138 19,392 50.57
2 – AAAA 641,456 358,544 21,281 290 957,086 42,914 366 8,602 115.25
7 – AAAA 681,929 318,071 18,490 69 958,245 41,755 359 8,459 117.22
1 – AAAA 718,228 281,772 9,119 20 938,532 61,468 46 7,090 140.04
6 – AAAA 973,215 26,785 179 995,326 4,674 251 3,983.06

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 85.16 1,000,000 939,086 759,037 713,940 566,569 0.77
Thomson 3 – AAAA 8-0 76.10 1,000,000 803,489 750,581 645,542 258,908 2.86
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 8-1 73.09 1,000,000 864,344 240,254 199,330 104,855 8.54
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-3 63.26 978,509 474,247 306,498 79,038 16,683 58.94
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 7-1 59.24 1,000,000 552,893 285,424 61,633 10,166 97.37
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 7-1 57.83 1,000,000 610,606 310,935 61,318 8,762 113.13
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 6-2 58.02 1,000,000 558,755 313,293 31,840 7,904 125.52
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 58.29 1,000,000 501,907 269,315 28,286 7,176 138.35
Cairo 1 – AAAA 7-1 57.13 1,000,000 480,441 256,067 60,237 6,989 142.08
Troup 5 – AAAA 7-1 57.24 1,000,000 163,493 101,282 46,856 5,613 177.16
Eastside 4 – AAAA 5-2-1 52.00 1,000,000 408,127 59,862 18,257 1,471 678.81
Marist 7 – AAAA 5-3 54.59 998,346 138,188 63,329 13,273 1,259 793.28
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-3 54.10 901,772 228,557 91,276 8,992 1,232 810.69
Burke County 3 – AAAA 7-1 52.69 1,000,000 65,294 22,939 8,462 871 1,147.11
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 6-2 50.79 1,000,000 166,862 28,779 4,285 448 2,231.14
Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-4 50.28 976,381 187,242 22,319 5,862 425 2,351.94
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 6-1 47.77 999,794 167,759 20,582 4,146 245 4,080.63
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-3 47.00 941,736 176,641 32,419 4,371 227 4,404.29
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 4-4 45.59 804,815 90,036 20,554 815 76 13,156.89
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 5-3 43.13 995,912 99,611 12,067 1,206 46 21,738.13
West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-3 42.70 971,959 13,970 3,973 555 24 41,665.67
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 4-4 42.52 751,997 59,313 10,800 344 23 43,477.26
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-8 41.53 417,998 51,432 2,898 429 9 111,110.11
Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-2 40.54 566,312 42,919 2,262 260 7 142,856.14
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 3-4-1 43.56 119,698 10,878 2,027 59 4 249,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-3 39.89 999,918 47,108 3,148 301 3 333,332.33
Pickens 6 – AAAA 4-4 38.37 999,915 43,227 3,038 221 3 333,332.33
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-3 39.23 358,224 14,376 2,027 59 1 999,999.00
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 5-3 37.71 579,512 6,742 916 38 1 999,999.00
Westover 1 – AAAA 4-4 37.27 435,456 4,077 506 19
Luella 4 – AAAA 4-5 34.41 575,223 6,702 689 12
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 6-3 26.60 998,504 4,499 197 6
Salem 4 – AAAA 5-3 29.56 540,647 4,279 218 2
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-4 26.94 880,150 6,226 205 2
Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-5 34.33 69,996 356 41 2
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-5 26.08 960,261 4,965 206 1
Perry 2 – AAAA 3-5 31.66 81,849 736 17 1
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-5 26.75 974,371 373 12
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-4 14.86 508,400 109 4
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 4-4 12.29 531,054 86 2
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-8 16.05 15,690 29 1
White County 7 – AAAA 1-7 20.98 55,324 15 1
Howard 2 – AAAA 1-7 20.42 4,122 2
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-7 41.96 21 2
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 3-5 11.18 1,687 1
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-8 3.35 2,293
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-3 12.80 1,869
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-8 -20.39 285
Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-7 21.94
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-8 20.28
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-6 5.15
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-8 3.94

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAAA Cairo 995,713 3,627 660
1 – AAAA Carver (Columbus) 597 425,547 223,672 154,999 195,185
1 – AAAA Americus-Sumter 367,863 174,149 209,985 248,003
1 – AAAA Northside (Columbus) 3,690 47,702 267,290 260,830 420,488
1 – AAAA Westover 33,113 238,118 164,225 564,544
1 – AAAA Hardaway 119,118 92,199 146,907 641,776
1 – AAAA Columbus 3,030 3,912 63,054 930,004
1 – AAAA Shaw 1,000,000
2 – AAAA Mary Persons 999,223 758 19
2 – AAAA West Laurens 509 574,007 245,364 121,856 58,264
2 – AAAA Upson-Lee 147 372,992 247,009 375,764 4,088
2 – AAAA Spalding 50,832 493,663 431,886 23,619
2 – AAAA Perry 121 1,411 13,945 66,372 918,151
2 – AAAA Howard 4,122 995,878
3 – AAAA Thomson 923,161 76,814 25
3 – AAAA Burke County 76,839 923,161
3 – AAAA Baldwin 826,448 133,813 39,739
3 – AAAA Cross Creek 134,225 396,829 468,946
3 – AAAA Richmond Academy 25 39,301 469,074 491,600
3 – AAAA Hephzibah 1 284 999,715
4 – AAAA Woodward Academy 1,000,000
4 – AAAA Eastside 858,886 134,482 6,632
4 – AAAA North Clayton 74,245 685,166 120,739 119,850
4 – AAAA Luella 118,263 456,960 424,777
4 – AAAA Salem 66,869 62,087 411,691 459,353
4 – AAAA Henry County 2,293 997,707
4 – AAAA Druid Hills 2 1,685 998,313
5 – AAAA Cartersville 949,668 50,332
5 – AAAA Troup 50,332 949,668
5 – AAAA Sandy Creek 699,706 278,803 21,491
5 – AAAA Cedartown 299,784 601,988 98,228
5 – AAAA Chapel Hill 510 119,188 880,302
5 – AAAA LaGrange 21 999,979
5 – AAAA Central (Carrollton) 1,000,000
6 – AAAA Ridgeland 459,199 272,623 265,085 2,887 206
6 – AAAA Northwest Whitfield 269,297 459,687 269,536 1,398 82
6 – AAAA Pickens 271,336 263,494 260,650 204,435 85
6 – AAAA Heritage (Ringgold) 68 2,787 204,570 791,079 1,496
6 – AAAA Southeast Whitfield 100 1,409 159 201 998,131
6 – AAAA Gilmer 1,000,000
6 – AAAA LaFayette 1,000,000
7 – AAAA Blessed Trinity 987,594 12,406
7 – AAAA Marist 820,373 153,576 24,397 1,654
7 – AAAA West Hall 12,406 144,378 774,017 41,158 28,041
7 – AAAA Chestatee 20,362 49,011 904,998 25,629
7 – AAAA White County 2,481 23,396 29,447 944,676
8 – AAAA Stephens County 557,672 440,630 1,698
8 – AAAA Jefferson 440,630 360,476 190,653 8,241
8 – AAAA Oconee County 1,698 182,171 595,829 220,302
8 – AAAA Madison County 16,723 211,820 337,769 433,688
8 – AAAA St. Pius X 417,998 582,002
8 – AAAA North Oconee 15,690 984,310

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
7 – AAA 260,867 739,133 69,101 283 448,207 551,793 6,180 428,309 1.33
5 – AAA 156,368 843,632 384,080 62,457 2,836 485,400 514,600 84,891 279,107 2.58
1 – AAA 409,131 590,869 54,136 841 3 670,556 329,444 2,846 118,309 7.45
6 – AAA 506,216 493,784 22,044 265 1 711,022 288,978 810 102,471 8.76
4 – AAA 605,970 394,030 44,049 1,115 6 848,895 151,105 2,958 59,756 15.73
2 – AAA 767,422 232,578 15,588 76 940,781 59,219 637 11,642 84.90
8 – AAA 964,452 35,548 174 995,442 4,558 304 3,288.47
3 – AAA 986,648 13,352 17 998,019 1,981 102 9,802.92

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 70.81 1,000,000 806,324 751,494 545,983 426,852 1.34
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 6-2 63.96 1,000,000 908,839 668,099 315,598 198,358 4.04
Crisp County 1 – AAA 8-0 60.14 1,000,000 653,935 557,875 317,826 116,370 7.59
Calhoun 6 – AAA 6-2 59.91 998,181 756,036 476,302 285,479 101,990 8.80
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 7-2 57.32 1,000,000 836,213 403,698 214,027 64,082 14.61
Peach County 4 – AAA 7-1 58.15 1,000,000 759,882 323,996 128,956 55,897 16.89
Liberty County 2 – AAA 7-1 49.51 1,000,000 607,755 151,868 42,028 9,273 106.84
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-3 52.58 983,623 163,536 115,171 37,034 9,075 109.19
Lovett 5 – AAA 5-3 51.77 984,047 154,312 106,032 32,832 7,592 130.72
Jackson 4 – AAA 6-2 46.90 1,000,000 311,617 81,123 21,034 3,521 283.01
Pierce County 2 – AAA 6-2 44.23 1,000,000 480,380 89,978 17,301 2,332 427.82
Worth County 1 – AAA 5-3 43.68 1,000,000 136,805 68,976 12,228 1,703 586.20
Dawson County 7 – AAA 6-1 45.48 1,000,000 94,764 52,716 11,586 1,445 691.04
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 6-3 40.65 889,088 216,182 24,331 2,946 409 2,443.99
Morgan County 8 – AAA 6-2 38.08 1,000,000 244,797 33,460 4,485 302 3,310.26
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 4-4 39.82 863,169 173,922 25,639 3,421 279 3,583.23
Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 40.13 898,081 71,990 15,483 1,945 215 4,650.16
Jenkins 3 – AAA 6-1 35.97 999,900 95,681 12,061 1,921 101 9,899.99
Bremen 6 – AAA 5-3 34.42 863,633 151,252 13,732 1,311 72 13,887.89
Pike County 4 – AAA 5-3 35.55 837,806 91,940 6,778 524 48 20,832.33
Monroe 1 – AAA 2-4 35.68 317,693 15,282 3,034 270 20 49,999.00
Appling County 2 – AAA 4-3 33.57 770,654 39,901 2,879 191 19 52,630.58
Brantley County 2 – AAA 5-2 34.09 986,202 33,927 3,474 336 18 55,554.56
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-3 32.93 299,025 25,021 1,663 128 11 90,908.09
Union County 7 – AAA 6-2 33.56 889,770 27,005 2,607 303 10 99,999.00
North Hall 7 – AAA 5-4 32.94 685,438 10,468 1,505 88 2 499,999.00
Savannah 3 – AAA 5-2 28.01 992,033 9,914 1,042 51 1 999,999.00
Franklin County 8 – AAA 3-5 25.92 877,391 35,006 1,448 46 1 999,999.00
Hart County 8 – AAA 1-6-1 24.81 830,824 17,900 582 23 1 999,999.00
Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-6 25.58 784,226 9,685 480 21 1 999,999.00
Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-6 23.91 467,047 18,385 891 28
North Murray 6 – AAA 5-3 23.73 500,575 18,705 676 20
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-4 26.01 365,824 3,034 184 13
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 3-4 23.67 998,442 1,935 263 9
Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-5 19.95 974,738 8,328 227 4
Ringgold 6 – AAA 4-4 21.91 118,640 4,257 123 3
Murray County 6 – AAA 6-3 17.38 138,576 2,433 38 1
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-5 21.54 215,293 2,101 45
East Hall 7 – AAA 2-6 22.34 58,968 162 14
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 2-6 11.03 300,159 187 5
Towers 5 – AAA 3-5 17.82 32,319 34 4
Islands 3 – AAA 3-4 5.98 971,193 81 3
Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-6 7.03 23,325 44 1
Long County 2 – AAA 1-4-2 13.59 27,851 34
East Jackson 8 – AAA 2-6 3.70 16,888 8
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-3 4.76 38,141 1
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-7 -12.68 935
Beach 3 – AAA 2-6 -3.22 291
McNair 5 – AAA 3-5 4.54 11
Redan 5 – AAA 2-6 22.13
Rutland 4 – AAA 2-7 17.52
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-8 13.44
Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-6 9.35
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -5.26
Groves 3 – AAA 1-7 -5.72
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-6 -13.02
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-8 -27.30

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AAA Crisp County 829,926 167,879 2,195
1 – AAA Worth County 170,074 722,126 106,635 1,165
1 – AAA Cook 680,662 217,419 101,919
1 – AAA Dougherty 3,379 98,892 681,955 215,774
1 – AAA Monroe 106,616 111,616 99,461 682,307
2 – AAA Liberty County 559,321 380,080 60,599
2 – AAA Pierce County 417,562 548,845 16,075 17,518
2 – AAA Brantley County 23,117 60,599 829,034 73,452 13,798
2 – AAA Appling County 10,476 72,808 687,370 229,346
2 – AAA Tattnall County 215,293 784,707
2 – AAA Long County 21,484 6,367 972,149
3 – AAA Jenkins 992,615 5,278 1,018 989 100
3 – AAA Savannah 3,095 941,663 42,993 4,282 7,967
3 – AAA Southeast Bulloch 6 43,868 940,617 13,951 1,558
3 – AAA Islands 4,068 6,265 13,504 947,356 28,807
3 – AAA Windsor Forest 216 2,926 1,690 33,309 961,859
3 – AAA Beach 178 113 999,709
3 – AAA Groves 1,000,000
3 – AAA Johnson (Savannah) 1,000,000
4 – AAA Peach County 743,780 238,188 13,482 4,550
4 – AAA Jackson 256,220 743,780
4 – AAA Westside (Macon) 4,550 724,132 134,487 136,831
4 – AAA Pike County 13,482 136,279 688,045 162,194
4 – AAA Central (Macon) 126,107 172,918 700,975
4 – AAA Kendrick 1,000,000
4 – AAA Rutland 1,000,000
5 – AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 988,886 11,114
5 – AAA Cedar Grove 11,114 988,774 112
5 – AAA Lovett 61 507,476 476,510 15,953
5 – AAA Pace Academy 51 484,287 499,285 16,377
5 – AAA Towers 8,125 24,194 967,681
5 – AAA McNair 11 999,989
5 – AAA Redan 1,000,000
5 – AAA Stone Mountain 1,000,000
6 – AAA Calhoun 956,072 11,243 21,240 9,626 1,819
6 – AAA Sonoraville 22,352 417,373 440,632 8,731 110,912
6 – AAA Bremen 20,894 54,939 415,888 371,912 136,367
6 – AAA North Murray 409 499,397 29 740 499,425
6 – AAA Adairsville 850 466,197 532,953
6 – AAA Murray County 272 16,710 63,002 58,592 861,424
6 – AAA Ringgold 1 335 58,265 60,039 881,360
6 – AAA Haralson County 12 23,313 976,675
6 – AAA Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 3 82 850 999,065
6 – AAA Coahulla Creek 1,000,000
7 – AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 922,214 77,786
7 – AAA Dawson County 77,786 892,939 29,275
7 – AAA Union County 711,189 178,581 110,230
7 – AAA North Hall 17,148 668,290 314,562
7 – AAA Lumpkin County 29,275 242,388 94,161 634,176
7 – AAA East Hall 58,968 941,032
7 – AAA Fannin County 1,000,000
8 – AAA Morgan County 723,222 248,300 27,018 1,460
8 – AAA Franklin County 194,710 337,928 284,606 60,147 122,609
8 – AAA Jackson County 82,068 135,426 287,019 470,225 25,262
8 – AAA Hart County 269,222 352,081 209,521 169,176
8 – AAA Monroe Area 9,124 37,188 253,847 699,841
8 – AAA East Jackson 12,088 4,800 983,112

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
2 – AA 95,823 904,177 114,324 849 1 241,771 758,229 7,708 523,119 0.91
1 – AA 372,382 627,618 89,957 3,265 28 463,682 536,318 17,770 249,714 3.00
8 – AA 570,133 429,867 3,145 5 622,319 377,681 186 147,290 5.79
5 – AA 364,035 635,965 117,124 515 1 827,352 172,648 1,854 59,865 15.70
4 – AA 613,936 386,064 28,423 4 941,431 58,569 76 12,435 79.42
7 – AA 894,211 105,789 3,682 42 978,744 21,256 51 3,477 286.60
3 – AA 658,070 341,930 4,197 5 965,368 34,632 17 3,242 307.45
6 – AA 801,403 198,597 4,421 1 987,000 13,000 5 858 1,164.50

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 8-0 73.67 1,000,000 981,279 890,053 755,458 522,433 0.91
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 7-1 68.65 1,000,000 926,285 569,789 515,984 240,562 3.16
Rabun County 8 – AA 7-0 65.32 1,000,000 925,302 425,735 377,297 147,246 5.79
Callaway 5 – AA 8-0 60.59 1,000,000 778,721 600,604 162,222 58,862 15.99
Jefferson County 4 – AA 8-0 52.52 1,000,000 827,762 371,610 57,141 12,380 79.78
Brooks County 1 – AA 6-2 54.34 999,702 537,079 117,025 35,556 8,908 111.26
Pepperell 7 – AA 6-1 50.34 1,000,000 411,110 48,027 17,422 3,250 306.69
Washington County 3 – AA 6-2 44.77 1,000,000 521,739 332,423 34,013 3,210 310.53
Spencer 5 – AA 6-2 43.13 1,000,000 258,508 132,264 10,964 942 1,060.57
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 5-3 40.50 1,000,000 447,054 170,804 11,945 814 1,227.50
Vidalia 2 – AA 6-2 40.47 1,000,000 205,398 69,930 5,411 363 2,753.82
Toombs County 2 – AA 6-2 40.61 1,000,000 183,349 59,035 5,067 323 3,094.98
Thomasville 1 – AA 4-3 40.80 1,000,000 151,673 31,636 2,514 242 4,131.23
Model 7 – AA 6-2 39.68 936,236 73,623 26,674 1,763 117 8,546.01
Rockmart 7 – AA 6-2 38.18 999,985 60,411 15,926 1,330 68 14,704.88
Screven County 4 – AA 7-1 34.05 1,000,000 188,912 42,723 1,477 55 18,180.82
Heard County 5 – AA 6-2 36.34 989,504 65,551 16,893 1,008 53 18,866.92
Elbert County 8 – AA 5-2-1 36.91 1,000,000 34,699 6,980 570 44 22,726.27
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-1 32.52 1,000,000 146,719 29,010 965 42 23,808.52
Chattooga 7 – AA 5-3 34.82 1,000,000 69,310 18,882 792 42 23,808.52
Southwest 3 – AA 4-4 36.07 1,000,000 49,217 12,302 433 25 39,999.00
Lamar County 5 – AA 4-4 35.19 920,367 35,875 3,843 308 8 124,999.00
Dodge County 3 – AA 4-5 34.11 998,044 36,279 880 101 6 166,665.67
Douglass 6 – AA 5-3 29.00 935,151 34,371 3,104 88 2 499,999.00
Berrien 1 – AA 3-4 24.73 937,257 15,202 2,418 34 2 499,999.00
Dublin 3 – AA 7-2 31.97 999,933 9,158 528 102 1 999,999.00
Laney 4 – AA 3-5 26.42 993,315 4,329 157 27
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-7 25.53 584,419 1,606 83 6
Swainsboro 2 – AA 2-6 19.51 630,960 7,051 285 1
Washington 6 – AA 3-6 20.18 426,057 544 17 1
Monticello 8 – AA 3-5 13.09 918,675 3,979 149
Banks County 8 – AA 4-4 15.40 893,204 4,973 140
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-5 14.96 246,796 1,229 29
Bacon County 2 – AA 1-6 17.15 107,574 769 19
Putnam County 8 – AA 1-7 9.77 188,121 456 12
Coosa 7 – AA 3-5 14.39 63,779 64 4
Albany 1 – AA 0-8 11.13 62,257 72 3
Therrell 6 – AA 3-5 20.75 54,373 96 2
Bryan County 2 – AA 2-5 13.65 14,660 61 1
Josey 4 – AA 4-4 7.78 608,433 49 1
Temple 5 – AA 5-3 15.35 90,030 118
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 3-5 1.92 380,933 13
Early County 1 – AA 0-7-1 18.26 784 5
Harlem 4 – AA 2-6 2.72 12,388
Butler 4 – AA 2-6 2.78 4,931
Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-6 5.17 2,023
Jordan 5 – AA 0-8 10.33 99
Metter 2 – AA 2-5 14.29 10
Northeast 3 – AA 1-7 15.10
South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-7 13.60
Dade County 7 – AA 2-6 6.04
East Laurens 3 – AA 1-7 4.72
Armuchee 7 – AA 2-6 -3.70
Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -3.86
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-7 -9.14
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-8 -14.86
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-8 -24.13

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team 1 2 3 4 Out
1 – AA Fitzgerald 961,878 25,371 12,751
1 – AA Brooks County 12,631 730,754 233,067 23,250 298
1 – AA Thomasville 25,491 217,788 743,631 13,090
1 – AA Berrien 26,087 10,551 900,619 62,743
1 – AA Albany 62,257 937,743
1 – AA Early County 784 999,216
2 – AA Benedictine 999,994 6
2 – AA Toombs County 5 537,587 428,132 34,276
2 – AA Vidalia 1 462,407 537,592
2 – AA Swainsboro 34,276 596,684 369,040
2 – AA Jeff Davis 246,796 753,204
2 – AA Bacon County 107,574 892,426
2 – AA Bryan County 14,660 985,340
2 – AA Metter 10 999,990
3 – AA Washington County 990,616 37 9,347
3 – AA Southwest 9,331 988,924 1,403 342
3 – AA Dodge County 1,626 978,983 17,435 1,956
3 – AA Dublin 53 9,346 10,250 980,284 67
3 – AA Bleckley County 67 17 1,939 997,977
3 – AA East Laurens 1,000,000
3 – AA Northeast 1,000,000
4 – AA Jefferson County 879,993 119,850 157
4 – AA Screven County 120,007 879,993
4 – AA Laney 881,625 111,690 6,685
4 – AA Josey 157 117,529 490,747 391,567
4 – AA Glenn Hills 689 380,244 619,067
4 – AA Harlem 12,388 987,612
4 – AA Butler 4,931 995,069
4 – AA Westside (Augusta) 1,000,000
5 – AA Callaway 868,556 120,046 11,398
5 – AA Spencer 108,883 615,166 172,749 103,202
5 – AA Heard County 22,561 213,017 445,736 308,190 10,496
5 – AA Lamar County 51,771 349,256 519,340 79,633
5 – AA Temple 20,861 69,169 909,970
5 – AA Jordan 99 999,901
6 – AA Hapeville Charter 719,737 280,263
6 – AA K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 280,263 410,416 309,321
6 – AA Douglass 309,321 324,658 301,172 64,849
6 – AA B.E.S.T. Academy 301,365 283,054 415,581
6 – AA Washington 64,656 361,401 573,943
6 – AA Therrell 54,373 945,627
6 – AA South Atlanta 1,000,000
7 – AA Pepperell 874,546 104,417 21,037
7 – AA Rockmart 21,000 561,086 195,960 221,939 15
7 – AA Chattooga 104,454 165,277 560,800 169,469
7 – AA Model 169,220 222,183 544,833 63,764
7 – AA Coosa 20 63,759 936,221
7 – AA Armuchee 1,000,000
7 – AA Dade County 1,000,000
7 – AA Gordon Central 1,000,000
8 – AA Rabun County 999,496 493 10 1
8 – AA Elbert County 2 843,887 130,677 25,434
8 – AA Banks County 7 108,327 679,393 105,477 106,796
8 – AA Monticello 495 47,293 108,712 762,175 81,325
8 – AA Putnam County 81,208 106,913 811,879
8 – AA Oglethorpe County 1,000,000
8 – AA Social Circle 1,000,000

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Macon County 4 – A 6-2 58.81 1,000,000 811,578 640,040 502,252 359,153 1.78
Clinch County 2 – A 7-1 53.88 1,000,000 774,791 567,511 386,732 210,956 3.74
Manchester 4 – A 8-0 53.23 1,000,000 646,989 430,350 274,376 144,979 5.90
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 8-0 49.42 1,000,000 779,544 454,280 239,950 100,297 8.97
Twiggs County 7 – A 6-2 50.03 1,000,000 671,218 373,508 204,301 89,190 10.21
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-0 41.88 1,000,000 559,839 289,088 90,250 24,182 40.35
Irwin County 2 – A 5-3 42.97 999,973 455,635 220,660 70,276 20,085 48.79
Taylor County 4 – A 7-1 43.72 1,000,000 361,405 220,711 66,286 20,083 48.79
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 5-1 40.94 1,000,000 582,655 240,462 76,111 18,737 52.37
Bowdon 6 – A 5-3 37.78 999,646 157,125 46,880 13,387 2,541 392.55
Turner County 2 – A 5-3 35.96 999,139 187,309 56,019 12,545 2,231 447.23
Mitchell County 1 – A 7-1 30.78 1,000,000 367,175 102,160 14,174 1,599 624.39
Commerce 8 – A 6-2 32.76 1,000,000 285,659 72,825 11,607 1,576 633.52
Lincoln County 7 – A 5-2-1 34.08 1,000,000 156,721 45,549 8,671 1,240 805.45
Greene County 7 – A 5-3 33.73 999,999 127,174 38,952 6,793 957 1,043.93
Pelham 1 – A 7-1 29.03 1,000,000 312,145 70,646 8,408 804 1,242.78
Miller County 1 – A 6-2 26.62 1,000,000 284,546 45,565 4,424 340 2,940.18
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 3-5 34.80 99,740 37,889 9,085 1,828 309 3,235.25
Telfair County 2 – A 4-3 30.30 998,111 78,232 20,191 2,575 260 3,845.15
Dooly County 4 – A 4-4 36.79 62,554 21,149 7,191 1,300 242 4,131.23
Marion County 4 – A 6-2 28.01 653,387 82,562 14,828 1,418 100 9,999.00
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 6-2 22.98 1,000,000 99,926 12,908 935 71 14,083.51
Terrell County 1 – A 5-3 23.60 999,963 110,620 15,897 1,097 54 18,517.52
Trion 6 – A 4-4 23.88 273,583 18,706 2,433 149 7 142,856.14
Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-3 21.12 474,361 11,850 1,090 77 5 199,999.00
Warren County 7 – A 4-4 23.26 210,641 7,128 768 65 1 999,999.00
Seminole County 1 – A 4-3-1 14.65 395,999 3,775 219 10 1 999,999.00
Treutlen 3 – A 4-4 9.20 369,726 2,924 80 3
Jenkins County 3 – A 4-4 5.95 978,905 2,520 63
Johnson County 3 – A 4-4 9.79 484,273 1,211 41
Charlton County 2 – A 2-5 22.75
Crawford County 4 – A 4-3 17.65
Atkinson County 2 – A 2-6 17.15
Hancock Central 7 – A 3-5 16.27
Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-5 13.96
Wheeler County 3 – A 6-3 10.23
Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-7 9.25
Schley County 4 – A 2-6 8.88
Towns County 8 – A 2-6 8.39
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-6 5.03
Montgomery County 3 – A 2-6 4.92
Wilcox County 2 – A 1-7 3.74
Lanier County 2 – A 1-7 0.39
Claxton 3 – A 0-6 -1.00
Portal 3 – A 0-6 -5.57
Calhoun County 1 – A 1-7 -6.48
Greenville 4 – A 1-7 -6.84
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-7 -9.23
Stewart County 1 – A 2-6 -14.74
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-7 -22.19
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-8 -25.85

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
1 – A Mitchell County 529,237 968,276 31,724
1 – A Miller County 147 693,928 306,072
1 – A Pelham 470,409 643,773 356,227
1 – A Randolph-Clay 153 164,889 835,111
1 – A Terrell County 54 139,102 860,861 37
1 – A Seminole County 395,999 604,001
1 – A Calhoun County 1,000,000
1 – A Chattahoochee County 1,000,000
1 – A Stewart County 1,000,000
1 – A Baconton Charter 1,000,000
2 – A Clinch County 996,610 996,612 3,388
2 – A Irwin County 2,254 14,147 985,826 27
2 – A Turner County 1,136 1,337 997,802 861
2 – A Telfair County 12 998,099 1,889
2 – A Atkinson County 1,000,000
2 – A Charlton County 1,000,000
2 – A Lanier County 1,000,000
2 – A Wilcox County 1,000,000
3 – A Emanuel County Institute 737,892 999,206 794
3 – A McIntosh County Academy 7,921 982,130 17,870
3 – A Jenkins County 978,905 21,095
3 – A Johnson County 484,273 515,727
3 – A Treutlen 369,726 630,274
3 – A Claxton 1,000,000
3 – A Montgomery County 1,000,000
3 – A Portal 1,000,000
3 – A Wheeler County 1,000,000
4 – A Macon County 621,100 621,100 378,900
4 – A Manchester 378,900 378,900 621,100
4 – A Taylor County 1,000,000
4 – A Marion County 653,387 346,613
4 – A Dooly County 62,554 937,446
4 – A Central (Talbotton) 1,000,000
4 – A Crawford County 1,000,000
4 – A Greenville 1,000,000
4 – A Hawkinsville 1,000,000
4 – A Schley County 1,000,000
5 – A Fulton Leadership Academy 1,000,000
6 – A Mount Zion (Carroll) 449,855 900,386 99,614
6 – A Bowdon 999,646 354
6 – A Gordon Lee 474,361 525,639
6 – A Trion 273,583 726,417
7 – A Twiggs County 184,262 192,456 807,544
7 – A Lincoln County 61,904 61,980 938,020
7 – A Greene County 999,999 1
7 – A Warren County 210,641 789,359
7 – A Washington-Wilkes 52,362 52,362 47,378 900,260
7 – A Hancock Central 1,000,000
7 – A Wilkinson County 1,000,000
8 – A Commerce 189,404 810,596
8 – A Towns County 1,000,000

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

NOTE: Only 10,000 simulations accomplished with Class A – Private.

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 8-0 58.44 10,000 9,029 6,773 4,722 3,310 2.02
Tattnall Square 7 – A 8-0 55.86 10,000 8,290 5,517 3,358 2,060 3.85
Landmark Christian 5 – A 8-0 53.20 10,000 8,421 5,598 3,229 1,598 5.26
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 8-0 52.15 10,000 7,883 4,316 2,218 1,063 8.41
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 8-0 47.56 10,000 7,824 4,178 1,825 599 15.69
Wesleyan 5 – A 6-2 48.28 10,000 7,352 3,515 1,561 545 17.35
Calvary Day 3 – A 6-0 44.45 10,000 6,637 2,903 1,130 313 30.95
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 7-1 45.87 10,000 4,191 1,622 537 201 48.75
Darlington 6 – A 7-2 44.50 10,000 3,810 1,531 517 150 65.67
Stratford Academy 7 – A 6-2 43.11 10,000 2,828 1,085 320 78 127.21
Athens Academy 8 – A 8-0 38.13 10,000 5,526 1,429 321 58 171.41
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 5-3 36.68 10,000 1,518 416 88 11 908.09
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-2 32.56 10,000 667 115 20 4 2,499.00
Savannah Christian 3 – A 4-2 31.82 10,000 1,626 285 45 3 3,332.33
Aquinas 7 – A 5-3 33.14 10,000 974 199 38 2 4,999.00
First Presbyterian 7 – A 5-3 34.15 10,000 844 176 29 2 4,999.00
Athens Christian 8 – A 5-3 29.71 10,000 714 92 7 2 4,999.00
George Walton Academy 8 – A 6-2 31.38 10,000 1,334 217 33 1 9,999.00
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 5-3 22.09 10,000 123 8 1
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-3 19.42 10,000 110 8 1
Holy Innocents 5 – A 4-4 23.92 9,999 172 8
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 2-6 16.98 9,670 48 6
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 4-2 17.36 10,000 50 2
Brookstone 4 – A 4-4 18.01 7,522 26 1
Walker 6 – A 2-6 15.60 1,166 3
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-5 5.18 1,499
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-6 -5.81 98
Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-6 8.64 28
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 3-5 1.55 14
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-6 4.04 4
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-7 0.74
Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-7 -0.67
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-7 -8.01
Pacelli 4 – A 1-7 -11.45
St. Francis 6 – A 1-7 -13.27
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-8 -15.88

Playoff Seeding Projections

Each team is shown with its region and the number of times of capturing each seed in the region plus the number of times the team did not make the playoffs.

Region Team Reg Chmp Seed 1 – 8 Seed 9 – 24 Out
3 – A Calvary Day 2,480 9,068 932
3 – A Savannah Christian 1,747 8,253
3 – A Savannah Country Day 10,000
4 – A Brookstone 7,522 2,478
4 – A Pacelli 10,000
5 – A Eagle’s Landing Christian 6,059 9,999 1
5 – A Landmark Christian 3,941 9,917 83
5 – A Wesleyan 9,913 87
5 – A Mount Vernon Presbyterian 10,000
5 – A Holy Innocents 9,999 1
5 – A Our Lady of Mercy 9,670 330
5 – A Strong Rock Christian 1,499 8,501
6 – A Fellowship Christian 5,412 8,876 1,124
6 – A Mount Paran Christian 1,118 8,882
6 – A Darlington 277 9,723
6 – A Mount Pisgah Christian 10,000
6 – A Pinecrest Academy 10,000
6 – A Walker 1,166 8,834
6 – A Whitefield Academy 98 9,902
6 – A King’s Ridge Christian 14 9,986
6 – A Christian Heritage 10,000
6 – A North Cobb Christian 10,000
6 – A St. Francis 10,000
7 – A Tattnall Square 6,813 7,130 2,870
7 – A Aquinas 151 151 9,849
7 – A Stratford Academy 28 76 9,924
7 – A First Presbyterian 10,000
7 – A Mount de Sales 28 9,972
8 – A Prince Avenue Christian 7,548 9,999 1
8 – A Athens Academy 2,452 9,772 228
8 – A George Walton Academy 1,955 8,045
8 – A Hebron Christian Academy 1 9,999
8 – A Athens Christian 1 9,999
8 – A Riverside Military Academy 4 9,996
8 – A Lakeview Academy 10,000
8 – A Providence Christian 10,000

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