Maxwell playoff projections after Week 9

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


Class AAAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
4 – AAAAAAA 137,167 862,833 64,987 1,475 10 284,176 715,824 2,929 475,459 1.10
8 – AAAAAAA 227,638 772,362 97,396 1,768 8 514,708 485,292 6,236 240,152 3.16
6 – AAAAAAA 319,662 680,338 46,507 952 2 639,235 360,765 2,450 159,034 5.29
7 – AAAAAAA 413,238 586,762 40,832 790 1 817,417 182,583 1,587 63,915 14.65
1 – AAAAAAA 594,264 405,736 54,218 758 1 869,115 130,885 3,767 36,075 26.72
3 – AAAAAAA 693,103 306,897 19,967 227 1 899,712 100,288 1,198 24,909 39.15
5 – AAAAAAA 971,001 28,999 209 995,629 4,371 1 330 3,029.30
2 – AAAAAAA 974,161 25,839 121 998,177 1,823 1 126 7,935.51

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 7-0 97.96 1,000,000 926,929 867,199 712,421 474,976 1.11
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 6-1 94.03 1,000,000 926,290 752,533 476,444 238,269 3.20
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 8-0 91.92 1,000,000 846,575 667,639 354,425 158,133 5.32
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 7-0 86.03 1,000,000 673,189 557,889 173,534 62,714 14.95
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 4-4 83.80 999,754 600,923 254,912 86,807 25,820 37.73
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 6-1 82.84 999,864 731,549 254,905 85,688 22,818 42.83
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 7-1 79.49 999,304 440,237 188,842 45,178 10,032 98.68
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 5-2 73.35 999,238 388,606 59,283 14,584 2,011 496.27
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 2-5 72.69 976,247 372,396 94,278 12,678 1,707 584.82
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 5-2 72.60 999,998 246,917 40,552 7,070 913 1,094.29
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 4-3 70.57 985,580 126,628 37,831 6,918 784 1,274.51
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-1 66.31 999,064 233,371 19,803 3,543 296 3,377.38
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 5-2 68.54 998,651 172,846 29,558 3,553 288 3,471.22
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 5-2 68.55 922,339 126,852 25,160 2,810 249 4,015.06
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-3 67.17 896,673 175,182 16,677 2,647 223 4,483.30
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-2 65.77 991,014 92,012 21,218 2,379 180 5,554.56
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 5-2 66.33 894,149 105,773 18,931 1,778 143 6,992.01
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 7-1 64.10 999,993 135,035 19,462 1,657 106 9,432.96
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 4-3 62.77 999,939 166,093 20,487 1,412 95 10,525.32
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 4-3 62.92 998,156 79,977 8,804 827 48 20,832.33
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 4-3 62.65 962,002 87,439 12,437 977 45 22,221.22
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 4-2-1 62.48 962,703 28,789 5,692 627 33 30,302.03
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-2 64.52 917,086 44,505 4,082 387 32 31,249.00
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 5-2 61.82 992,161 29,711 4,881 394 31 32,257.06
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-3 62.81 985,482 62,295 5,141 506 22 45,453.55
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 4-3 58.57 997,031 75,521 3,910 313 12 83,332.33
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-5 62.11 835,619 19,002 2,857 215 11 90,908.09
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-4 59.93 417,280 23,401 2,067 104 7 142,856.14
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-3 58.46 303,440 16,237 1,224 62 2 499,999.00
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-5 53.65 234,188 9,700 282 20
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 3-4 51.32 953,414 6,713 426 13
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 3-5 50.23 981,296 20,251 387 13
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-3 50.96 620,279 2,555 174 6
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-4 49.67 713,783 2,122 165 5
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-5 52.15 436,306 1,728 182 4
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-5 50.79 274,127 1,749 100 1
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-4 48.53 156,332 537 18
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 45.24 181,725 218 10
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 4-3 38.51 348,995 109 2
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 4-4 34.78 23,493 30
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-5 36.78 5,628 5
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-3 33.25 33,867 3
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-5 17.49 2,449
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-6 33.17 952
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-7 19.11 220
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-6 6.40 133
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-6 20.91 46
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-8 -8.79

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAA 37,116 962,884 702,351 219,719 21,686 147,582 852,418 357,667 701,911 0.42
6 – AAAAAA 308,765 691,235 152,002 6,790 55 656,807 343,193 17,557 171,953 4.82
5 – AAAAAA 480,087 519,913 115,052 9,232 238 781,807 218,193 11,146 74,060 12.50
4 – AAAAAA 729,549 270,451 10,261 82 896,956 103,044 243 29,734 32.63
2 – AAAAAA 774,875 225,125 7,771 41 917,493 82,507 134 20,543 47.68
8 – AAAAAA 940,171 59,829 748 1 989,364 10,636 9 1,495 667.90
7 – AAAAAA 976,228 23,772 170 996,776 3,224 2 302 3,310.26
3 – AAAAAA 999,414 586 999,973 27 2 499,999.00

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 6-1 84.54 996,111 874,594 794,036 578,366 388,774 1.57
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 7-1 82.27 985,469 841,061 696,407 497,864 271,001 2.69
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 7-0 79.23 999,725 863,797 607,456 294,957 157,585 5.35
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 6-1 73.84 1,000,000 521,246 286,025 117,981 42,743 22.40
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-1 73.23 993,254 540,592 290,701 106,907 36,902 26.10
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 6-1 71.54 999,895 560,983 253,612 100,456 29,479 32.92
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 7-0 71.44 997,730 500,056 229,831 78,937 24,674 39.53
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 6-1 69.01 999,869 666,677 212,392 80,660 20,390 48.04
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 7-0 67.80 1,000,000 486,452 181,482 53,292 12,428 79.46
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-2 64.89 990,857 349,672 122,374 26,316 5,091 195.43
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 6-2 65.56 998,660 136,685 69,844 18,224 3,919 254.17
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-1 64.23 994,082 128,451 58,594 14,176 2,722 366.38
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 3-4 62.11 986,616 289,211 57,339 12,246 1,920 519.83
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 5-2 60.02 999,944 345,698 47,962 9,362 1,393 716.88
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 4-3 54.29 987,481 210,699 16,749 1,932 182 5,493.51
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 6-2 57.05 1,000,000 36,648 12,012 1,805 173 5,779.35
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 63.83 34,309 10,770 3,122 632 143 6,992.01
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 6-2 56.11 998,775 23,585 9,088 1,213 121 8,263.46
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 4-2 53.69 973,382 136,096 12,801 1,374 118 8,473.58
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 3-4 52.42 986,304 142,523 11,292 1,205 100 9,999.00
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 4-4 53.03 999,986 72,551 10,203 896 73 13,697.63
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-3 51.26 950,345 66,222 5,404 454 31 32,257.06
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 3-4 51.07 156,947 20,135 1,081 85 10 99,999.00
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-4 47.61 697,875 54,276 2,425 156 9 111,110.11
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-0 46.57 997,959 44,658 2,342 153 4 249,999.00
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 4-3 50.63 944,743 14,271 1,635 120 4 249,999.00
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 5-3 49.03 998,574 11,554 1,206 88 4 249,999.00
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 3-4 46.86 913,567 17,784 1,183 75 2 499,999.00
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-3 58.24 5,952 347 112 20 2 499,999.00
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 4-3 43.89 999,454 6,873 446 23 1 999,999.00
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 4-3 45.17 158,137 9,250 301 14 1 999,999.00
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 5-2 40.11 994,312 3,008 130 4 1 999,999.00
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-5 40.57 702,988 7,390 215 3
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 4-3 38.16 718,208 3,124 109 2
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-3 36.43 372,845 1,092 32 1
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 5-3 54.46 3,576 134 30 1
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 3-4 34.00 182,086 1,003 12
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 30.65 806,471 211 5
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 2-5 27.82 917,364 175 4
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 33.15 40,299 99 3
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 3-4 34.45 50,068 43 2
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-2 24.73 258,002 17 1
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 1-6 33.79 87,153 256
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 2-3-1 24.59 78,445 21
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-5 38.14 7,567 6
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-4-1 20.61 9,132 3
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 18.11 24,397 1
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-5 28.94 700
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 1-6 29.39 270
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-5 27.59 112
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-5 22.16 3
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-6 34.27
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-7 31.74
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-6 26.97
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-8 24.90
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-6 24.27
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-7 5.92
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 1-7 3.37

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
8 – AAAAA 267,377 732,623 64,949 201 396,192 603,808 6,299 428,157 1.34
4 – AAAAA 93,335 906,665 338,527 14,782 150 372,583 627,417 63,678 325,007 2.08
7 – AAAAA 270,033 729,967 258,377 33,353 218 612,707 387,293 40,293 165,017 5.06
2 – AAAAA 657,055 342,945 682 863,800 136,200 43,067 22.22
6 – AAAAA 654,859 345,141 11,356 15 901,795 98,205 401 34,296 28.16
3 – AAAAA 913,848 86,152 2,274 15 986,749 13,251 14 1,773 563.02
1 – AAAAA 931,993 68,007 1,476 12 988,363 11,637 20 1,394 716.36
5 – AAAAA 938,365 61,635 467 988,518 11,482 2 1,289 774.80

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 6-1 80.78 999,998 909,586 735,854 598,964 426,772 1.34
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 7-0 75.21 1,000,000 914,809 837,264 566,951 280,558 2.56
Kell 7 – AAAAA 6-1 70.45 1,000,000 873,565 521,924 236,546 94,229 9.61
Rome 7 – AAAAA 5-2 69.36 999,633 833,669 270,634 142,484 59,900 15.69
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 3-3 67.38 1,000,000 660,719 343,514 136,199 43,067 22.22
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 6-2 67.98 997,918 519,503 364,509 109,559 41,889 22.87
Grady 6 – AAAAA 6-1 66.76 999,997 479,485 326,788 94,057 33,859 28.53
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 6-1 61.17 997,032 654,531 226,497 48,382 10,879 90.92
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 5-2 58.17 940,650 136,684 50,493 13,665 2,480 402.23
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 7-1 55.83 994,804 291,822 61,014 10,573 1,549 644.58
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 6-1 54.64 1,000,000 238,653 58,138 10,823 1,369 729.46
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 6-1 53.11 999,987 408,657 58,316 11,263 1,278 781.47
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 5-3 54.67 965,582 214,494 34,223 6,951 952 1,049.42
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 5-2 50.98 999,992 67,527 29,214 4,529 437 2,287.33
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2-4 52.34 971,877 147,124 21,733 3,608 372 2,687.17
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-1 48.43 977,997 131,649 14,461 1,613 154 6,492.51
Ola 4 – AAAAA 4-3 48.68 989,408 46,870 7,219 849 73 13,697.63
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 4-4 46.93 854,043 81,958 8,671 722 53 18,866.92
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 2-6 46.00 955,781 94,410 7,989 657 48 20,832.33
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 4-4 44.76 853,722 65,960 5,330 431 21 47,618.05
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 5-2 43.51 789,331 56,964 3,980 340 17 58,822.53
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 4-4 43.37 947,979 12,588 3,738 320 16 62,499.00
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 4-3 41.45 998,814 64,009 3,708 217 11 90,908.09
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 5-3 50.22 39,424 2,244 392 45 5 199,999.00
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 2-5 42.37 174,434 15,709 835 61 3 333,332.33
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 3-4 49.11 32,573 1,559 250 26 2 499,999.00
Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-4 39.24 183,888 11,350 467 24 2 499,999.00
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-4 41.72 21,954 1,844 106 8 2 499,999.00
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-4 38.86 508,442 27,885 1,100 62 1 999,999.00
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 3-4 39.57 114,617 7,690 356 19 1 999,999.00
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-4 36.41 253,038 5,314 222 10 1 999,999.00
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-2 34.88 858,872 5,073 437 17
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-3-1 38.62 374,605 7,178 316 17
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-4 30.37 964,988 3,837 76 4
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 3-4 34.11 609,587 1,244 56 3
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-7 21.98 755,104 203 13 1
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 1-6 31.41 982,674 1,664 79
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-4 27.11 553,630 352 20
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-7 24.05 855,374 342 20
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-5 29.15 150,035 182 18
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 4-3 27.93 511,686 551 16
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-4 28.28 348,358 141 6
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-5 21.57 418,209 208 2
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-5 19.26 530,667 128 1
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 1-4-1 12.72 406,848 19 1
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-4 31.49 9,199 36
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-6 12.24 87,335 9
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 2-5 20.57 19,854 2
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-6 40.20 22
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-7 11.53 21
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-7 5.30 11
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-5-1 23.60 5
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-6 17.39 1
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-6 18.26
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-8 14.89
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-8 -7.57
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 1-7 -21.42
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 1-3 -36.46

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
5 – AAAA 175,928 824,072 312,833 49,346 2,559 268,688 731,312 66,896 578,628 0.73
3 – AAAA 280,160 719,840 18,837 5 392,886 607,114 2,100 220,872 3.53
4 – AAAA 672,158 327,842 20,032 158 744,756 255,244 5,050 150,816 5.63
8 – AAAA 517,378 482,622 80,457 1,374 6 892,162 107,838 1,699 16,454 59.78
7 – AAAA 618,376 381,624 37,923 136 935,827 64,173 968 12,919 76.41
2 – AAAA 662,276 337,724 31,759 531 1 948,412 51,588 391 9,133 108.49
1 – AAAA 736,173 263,827 7,389 15 936,512 63,488 36 6,951 142.86
6 – AAAA 901,462 98,538 547 957,902 42,098 5 4,227 235.57

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 8-0 82.73 1,000,000 940,882 723,217 681,170 557,270 0.79
Thomson 3 – AAAA 7-0 72.45 999,999 795,814 705,659 599,445 219,772 3.55
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 7-1 73.04 1,000,000 870,512 276,577 238,173 148,787 5.72
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 4-3 60.88 927,934 426,779 282,325 74,378 16,379 60.05
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 6-1 56.96 997,831 520,011 263,499 59,590 9,986 99.14
Marist 7 – AAAA 5-2 56.96 999,633 409,381 243,364 37,283 8,135 121.93
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 5-2 56.01 999,546 516,222 274,876 38,194 8,081 122.75
Cairo 1 – AAAA 6-1 54.52 999,530 450,510 244,003 62,608 6,898 143.97
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 6-1 54.02 999,901 464,864 208,789 38,213 5,169 192.46
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 6-2 55.03 1,000,000 317,324 172,252 27,292 4,769 208.69
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 6-0 53.30 999,985 457,071 96,018 41,937 4,218 236.08
Troup 5 – AAAA 6-1 53.34 999,149 198,038 91,995 25,741 2,942 338.90
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-2 52.64 918,793 191,474 88,845 16,866 2,029 491.85
Eastside 4 – AAAA 5-2-1 51.91 999,825 316,897 62,942 21,757 2,015 495.28
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 6-1 50.60 991,094 265,631 87,374 11,032 1,278 781.47
Burke County 3 – AAAA 6-1 51.25 999,998 94,668 32,470 9,765 1,100 908.09
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-2 47.81 970,000 229,805 67,379 7,533 604 1,654.63
Spalding 2 – AAAA 3-4 49.17 879,378 115,270 16,204 4,920 387 2,582.98
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 4-3 42.48 965,672 76,705 11,470 1,325 61 16,392.44
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-4 42.00 680,695 52,013 12,238 482 29 34,481.76
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-7 41.99 517,100 36,023 3,021 521 17 58,822.53
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-2 39.49 711,563 42,479 8,415 260 17 58,822.53
West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-3 40.76 981,719 16,860 4,056 565 15 66,665.67
Salem 4 – AAAA 5-2 37.27 937,949 39,383 4,232 290 10 99,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-3 40.37 999,603 18,517 1,037 126 9 111,110.11
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 3-4 37.73 466,678 21,083 3,641 88 5 199,999.00
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 3-3-1 40.39 94,751 7,601 1,438 30 5 199,999.00
Madison County 8 – AAAA 5-2 39.68 467,431 22,387 1,774 181 4 249,999.00
Luella 4 – AAAA 4-4 37.11 903,193 25,961 4,253 71 4 249,999.00
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-6 40.59 59,373 4,771 990 23 3 333,332.33
Westover 1 – AAAA 4-3 36.27 516,400 12,449 1,836 47 2 499,999.00
Pickens 6 – AAAA 3-4 32.96 992,519 16,971 1,735 36
Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-4 34.57 181,664 4,104 517 21
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 4-3 34.29 440,279 4,686 582 18
Perry 2 – AAAA 3-4 32.10 175,508 1,511 84 7
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-4 26.75 962,684 8,307 547 4
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 5-3 26.69 974,785 5,657 296 4
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 3-4 23.02 146,816 565 31 3
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 3-5 24.06 506,245 211 7 1
White County 7 – AAAA 1-6 22.27 512,403 196 5
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 2-4 16.11 498,476 182 5
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 4-3 13.52 533,907 188 2
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-7 15.70 26,643 15
Howard 2 – AAAA 1-6 20.90 9,896 14
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-3 12.70 18,651 5
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-7 11.01 11,786 2
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-5 4.68 14,456 1
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-7 -16.75 4,936
Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-6 23.42 3,191
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 2-5 14.14 431
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-7 3.50 1
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-8 17.92

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
7 – AAA 237,277 762,723 68,509 303 410,388 589,612 6,773 484,878 1.06
5 – AAA 83,161 916,839 568,613 145,883 8,527 323,587 676,413 156,342 366,818 1.73
4 – AAA 606,989 393,011 53,506 1,793 12 847,364 152,636 3,530 52,510 18.04
1 – AAA 553,698 446,302 32,968 563 3 795,135 204,865 1,253 50,780 18.69
6 – AAA 710,084 289,916 16,654 206 1 862,498 137,502 495 31,899 30.35
2 – AAA 758,683 241,317 17,050 156 934,025 65,975 641 12,934 76.32
8 – AAA 976,075 23,925 113 997,600 2,400 116 8,619.69
3 – AAA 988,915 11,085 20 998,438 1,562 1 65 15,383.62

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 7-1 71.93 1,000,000 828,714 776,087 584,339 483,715 1.07
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 5-2 64.45 1,000,000 899,682 702,766 340,618 221,169 3.52
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 5-2 58.48 999,916 873,130 585,200 358,432 112,583 7.88
Crisp County 1 – AAA 7-0 55.22 999,828 497,500 397,705 191,816 49,127 19.36
Peach County 4 – AAA 6-1 56.76 1,000,000 737,412 301,313 119,371 47,033 20.26
Calhoun 6 – AAA 5-2 54.09 989,410 612,861 255,532 129,714 31,067 31.19
Lovett 5 – AAA 5-2 53.80 999,016 282,218 200,832 76,807 19,276 50.88
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 4-3 52.97 992,166 207,034 151,058 56,897 13,790 71.52
Liberty County 2 – AAA 6-1 49.53 999,854 655,936 160,362 47,743 11,031 89.65
Jackson 4 – AAA 6-2 46.82 1,000,000 406,466 104,194 31,416 5,100 195.08
Pierce County 2 – AAA 5-2 42.54 992,593 403,089 79,386 16,279 1,737 574.71
Worth County 1 – AAA 4-3 42.06 978,573 121,690 58,656 11,114 1,337 746.94
Dawson County 7 – AAA 5-1 43.75 996,694 90,249 50,897 11,607 1,145 872.36
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 6-2 41.37 913,821 246,085 36,937 7,136 787 1,269.65
Cook 1 – AAA 4-4 39.50 885,512 71,851 20,270 2,908 300 3,332.33
Pike County 4 – AAA 5-2 37.42 926,533 176,355 23,736 3,085 213 4,693.84
Appling County 2 – AAA 4-2 37.62 917,016 113,004 17,226 2,519 163 6,133.97
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 3-4 37.71 749,300 138,176 17,511 2,194 159 6,288.31
Morgan County 8 – AAA 5-2 34.74 999,536 165,447 18,452 2,108 106 9,432.96
Jenkins 3 – AAA 5-1 33.94 999,457 55,839 9,912 1,507 64 15,624.00
Bremen 6 – AAA 4-3 31.21 773,247 108,243 9,476 841 39 25,640.03
Monroe 1 – AAA 2-4 34.09 302,025 12,923 2,414 242 14 71,427.57
Union County 7 – AAA 6-2 31.97 898,881 23,838 3,180 362 12 83,332.33
Hart County 8 – AAA 1-5-1 28.26 917,621 53,895 3,432 215 9 111,110.11
Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-5 27.33 655,254 59,021 4,104 287 6 166,665.67
North Hall 7 – AAA 5-3 31.17 712,065 8,897 1,188 66 6 166,665.67
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-3 32.50 300,843 26,484 1,564 100 5 199,999.00
Brantley County 2 – AAA 4-2 29.41 878,575 25,383 1,485 74 3 333,332.33
Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-5 23.97 834,062 10,690 788 38 2 499,999.00
Franklin County 8 – AAA 3-5 26.34 898,276 39,807 1,914 67 1 999,999.00
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 2-4 22.46 990,670 1,838 217 6 1 999,999.00
Savannah 3 – AAA 5-1 24.84 998,594 11,353 971 50
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 3-4 24.18 306,538 2,190 176 11
Ringgold 6 – AAA 4-4 22.68 174,048 7,412 268 10
Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-5 19.59 974,588 8,380 239 10
North Murray 6 – AAA 4-3 23.16 277,113 10,003 367 8
Murray County 6 – AAA 5-3 17.92 209,690 4,237 94 1
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-4 22.34 180,007 1,791 64 1
Redan 5 – AAA 2-5 31.58 3,841 31 7 1
East Hall 7 – AAA 2-5 20.80 80,798 177 9
Rutland 4 – AAA 2-6 19.12 22,844 288 4
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-2 6.83 650,215 132 4
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 2-6 10.26 196,428 173 2
Islands 3 – AAA 2-4 0.48 359,469 16 1
Long County 2 – AAA 1-3-2 11.08 31,955 42
East Jackson 8 – AAA 2-5 3.95 13,551 8
Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-5 10.18 5,024 7
Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-6 1.55 5,976 1
Towers 5 – AAA 2-5 12.41 5,037 1
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-7 14.26 480 1
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-6 -15.71 1,441
Beach 3 – AAA 1-6 -3.27 1,428
Groves 3 – AAA 1-6 -5.00 134
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-5 -11.79 33
McNair 5 – AAA 3-4 4.56 24
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-6 -5.47
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-7 -26.91

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
2 – AA 144,804 855,196 121,417 2,663 10 321,592 678,408 16,447 510,654 0.96
1 – AA 364,160 635,840 111,665 4,288 43 461,945 538,055 28,447 238,202 3.20
8 – AA 586,219 413,781 9,411 19 648,278 351,722 444 113,840 7.78
5 – AA 332,205 667,795 89,338 956 2 779,653 220,347 2,688 110,865 8.02
4 – AA 619,591 380,409 42,693 46 931,266 68,734 411 16,906 58.15
3 – AA 672,367 327,633 7,938 22 949,988 50,012 66 4,798 207.42
7 – AA 863,970 136,030 5,515 79 973,632 26,368 86 3,663 272.00
6 – AA 816,277 183,723 3,480 7 982,243 17,757 8 1,072 931.84

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 7-0 70.85 1,000,000 955,437 830,464 668,629 508,611 0.97
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 6-1 63.81 999,963 876,871 543,149 469,058 212,936 3.70
Rabun County 8 – AA 6-0 59.12 1,000,000 806,222 408,584 348,577 113,555 7.81
Callaway 5 – AA 7-0 60.38 999,996 797,527 639,700 209,013 110,000 8.09
Brooks County 1 – AA 6-1 53.51 999,815 604,486 178,317 94,206 24,979 39.03
Jefferson County 4 – AA 8-0 50.41 1,000,000 799,281 326,113 61,050 16,475 59.70
Washington County 3 – AA 5-2 42.68 996,165 420,647 255,819 42,020 4,278 232.75
Pepperell 7 – AA 5-1 46.83 999,998 312,110 42,292 14,837 2,901 343.71
Vidalia 2 – AA 5-2 41.06 994,850 241,367 87,975 18,604 1,609 620.50
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 4-3 37.56 995,738 361,635 143,788 15,252 986 1,013.20
Model 7 – AA 5-2 39.30 935,631 114,023 50,893 6,469 490 2,039.82
Southwest 3 – AA 4-3 36.63 1,000,000 168,720 75,850 7,302 469 2,131.20
Toombs County 2 – AA 5-2 36.74 991,999 186,204 59,528 7,591 434 2,303.15
Screven County 4 – AA 6-1 35.50 999,426 298,332 95,916 7,869 423 2,363.07
Lamar County 5 – AA 4-3 37.52 975,646 136,369 53,380 6,730 415 2,408.64
Elbert County 8 – AA 5-1-1 37.17 999,921 79,789 14,244 3,589 285 3,507.77
Thomasville 1 – AA 3-3 38.74 994,403 119,320 26,007 3,109 284 3,520.13
Heard County 5 – AA 5-2 36.34 978,023 111,557 39,217 4,494 279 3,583.23
Spencer 5 – AA 5-2 35.71 993,505 91,283 25,791 2,798 171 5,846.95
Chattooga 7 – AA 4-3 34.53 997,607 99,342 30,833 2,811 138 7,245.38
Rockmart 7 – AA 5-2 34.86 922,333 61,538 17,597 2,337 134 7,461.69
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 6-1 30.75 997,834 115,698 25,067 1,456 51 19,606.84
Douglass 6 – AA 5-2 29.87 989,617 87,545 17,114 1,002 35 28,570.43
Dodge County 3 – AA 3-5 34.47 996,461 44,647 1,813 269 32 31,249.00
Dublin 3 – AA 6-2 31.83 855,699 17,001 2,106 486 19 52,630.58
Laney 4 – AA 2-5 27.65 980,227 15,547 1,112 226 8 124,999.00
Berrien 1 – AA 3-4 23.62 938,894 24,054 4,358 129 3 333,332.33
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-6 25.12 788,285 21,327 1,219 52
Swainsboro 2 – AA 2-5 22.11 551,643 14,237 1,091 27
Bryan County 2 – AA 2-4 19.29 333,581 4,807 205 4
Therrell 6 – AA 3-5 21.54 66,620 394 13 3
Northeast 3 – AA 1-6 16.35 148,494 186 5 1
Monticello 8 – AA 2-5 11.52 905,316 4,417 203
Banks County 8 – AA 3-4 14.03 866,349 5,667 165
Putnam County 8 – AA 1-7 8.44 206,296 591 17
Coosa 7 – AA 3-4 15.01 143,885 169 12
Bacon County 2 – AA 1-5 17.15 37,934 357 11
Washington 6 – AA 2-6 16.62 129,482 287 7
Josey 4 – AA 4-3 9.24 693,203 238 7
Albany 1 – AA 0-7 8.92 65,917 98 6
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 1-5 11.59 60,975 244 5
Metter 2 – AA 2-4 16.55 29,018 270 4
South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-6 15.77 32,424 76 2
Early County 1 – AA 0-7-1 16.75 1,008 5 1
Temple 5 – AA 5-2 11.84 39,536 37
Butler 4 – AA 2-5 4.72 49,347 17
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 2-5 3.44 267,325 9
Jordan 5 – AA 0-7 9.40 13,294 7
Social Circle 8 – AA 2-6 -4.42 22,118 5
Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-6 4.16 2,948 2
Dade County 7 – AA 2-5 6.34 530 1
Harlem 4 – AA 2-6 3.60 10,385
East Laurens 3 – AA 1-6 3.87 233
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-6 -7.13 87
Armuchee 7 – AA 2-5 -5.55 16
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-7 -14.10
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-7 -24.10

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Manchester 4 – A 8-0 54.40 1,000,000 754,566 541,404 377,067 243,548 3.11
Clinch County 2 – A 6-1 51.41 1,000,000 840,803 683,546 383,029 223,026 3.48
Macon County 4 – A 5-2 53.75 1,000,000 724,261 503,608 344,018 214,015 3.67
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 7-0 50.37 1,000,000 773,493 481,773 306,819 153,042 5.53
Twiggs County 7 – A 5-2 46.98 999,994 571,202 309,583 162,144 67,002 13.92
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 7-0 41.90 1,000,000 617,984 311,658 141,874 40,195 23.88
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 4-1 38.71 1,000,000 627,112 288,076 92,954 21,333 45.88
Irwin County 2 – A 4-3 40.32 995,399 402,881 195,918 64,567 17,057 57.63
Lincoln County 7 – A 5-1-1 36.59 1,000,000 361,738 120,259 30,891 6,400 155.25
Bowdon 6 – A 5-3 36.98 996,829 226,454 92,671 25,582 5,350 185.92
Turner County 2 – A 4-3 33.07 940,586 189,498 63,843 13,118 2,067 482.79
Dooly County 4 – A 4-3 35.79 584,695 116,323 38,111 10,039 1,888 528.66
Taylor County 4 – A 6-1 33.32 987,117 163,684 57,242 11,526 1,820 548.45
Commerce 8 – A 5-2 29.25 999,195 294,042 68,948 9,895 1,153 866.30
Mitchell County 1 – A 6-1 26.11 1,000,000 352,362 72,723 8,567 701 1,425.53
Pelham 1 – A 6-1 25.09 1,000,000 311,866 63,916 7,198 551 1,813.88
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 6-1 24.34 1,000,000 269,689 46,188 4,827 346 2,889.17
Greene County 7 – A 4-3 27.31 791,763 68,466 13,992 1,962 188 5,318.15
Telfair County 2 – A 3-3 25.19 806,135 78,078 17,208 1,653 149 6,710.41
Marion County 4 – A 6-2 28.15 252,090 49,549 9,210 1,084 114 8,770.93
Trion 6 – A 4-3 21.98 420,356 29,299 3,686 266 15 66,665.67
Miller County 1 – A 5-2 16.23 999,122 64,274 5,911 296 11 90,908.09
Terrell County 1 – A 4-3 17.77 990,202 53,456 5,568 295 11 90,908.09
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 2-5 29.68 6,507 2,293 433 88 10 99,999.00
Gordon Lee 6 – A 4-3 20.78 430,495 14,522 1,554 143 5 199,999.00
Johnson County 3 – A 4-3 10.93 545,271 6,281 332 9 1 999,999.00
Charlton County 2 – A 2-4 24.08 25,810 933 118 8 1 999,999.00
Hancock Central 7 – A 3-4 17.22 48,130 1,959 157 4 1 999,999.00
Wheeler County 3 – A 6-2 13.73 612,342 10,852 733 28
Warren County 7 – A 3-4 20.26 74,230 4,375 475 20
Jenkins County 3 – A 4-3 10.29 974,065 9,732 694 17
Seminole County 1 – A 3-3-1 12.27 469,387 7,333 438 11
Atkinson County 2 – A 2-5 15.67 8,069 193 12 1
Treutlen 3 – A 3-4 6.77 34,298 418 10
Towns County 8 – A 2-5 2.06 6,237 27 2
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-5 1.61 1,621 2
Claxton 3 – A 0-5 -0.36 53
Portal 3 – A 0-5 -3.73 2
Crawford County 4 – A 3-3 13.50
Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-4 11.77
Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-6 9.51
Schley County 4 – A 2-5 7.87
Wilcox County 2 – A 1-6 2.95
Montgomery County 3 – A 1-6 -0.17
Lanier County 2 – A 1-6 -0.23
Greenville 4 – A 1-7 -6.63
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-6 -8.15
Calhoun County 1 – A 1-6 -9.36
Stewart County 1 – A 2-5 -17.79
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-6 -23.19
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-7 -30.68

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 7-0 59.30 1,000,000 925,718 764,376 589,116 456,839 1.19
Tattnall Square 7 – A 7-0 53.02 1,000,000 792,394 540,679 294,690 163,848 5.10
Wesleyan 5 – A 6-1 49.70 1,000,000 797,204 465,734 225,880 102,286 8.78
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 7-0 48.07 1,000,000 706,921 344,199 157,166 64,985 14.39
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 8-0 45.47 1,000,000 760,278 432,352 203,812 60,367 15.57
Landmark Christian 5 – A 7-0 45.75 1,000,000 681,554 305,179 126,458 43,558 21.96
Calvary Day 3 – A 5-0 44.27 1,000,000 679,215 337,059 146,810 40,106 23.93
Darlington 6 – A 6-2 45.44 1,000,000 516,933 231,271 99,710 31,561 30.68
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 6-1 43.65 1,000,000 549,631 215,860 80,822 23,452 41.64
Stratford Academy 7 – A 5-2 40.86 1,000,000 290,888 107,719 33,971 7,841 126.53
Aquinas 7 – A 5-2 35.58 1,000,000 172,129 46,616 9,074 1,562 639.20
Athens Academy 8 – A 7-0 31.55 1,000,000 351,536 69,049 11,253 1,295 771.20
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 4-3 33.65 1,000,000 138,473 35,201 6,915 887 1,126.40
Savannah Christian 3 – A 3-2 31.03 1,000,000 184,191 37,107 6,112 636 1,571.33
First Presbyterian 7 – A 5-2 31.39 1,000,000 74,917 15,903 2,573 282 3,545.10
George Walton Academy 8 – A 6-1 27.89 1,000,000 174,400 24,610 2,772 242 4,131.23
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-1 30.05 1,000,000 64,738 11,848 1,536 160 6,249.00
Athens Christian 8 – A 4-3 26.06 1,000,000 75,115 9,981 963 76 13,156.89
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 2-5 23.33 997,026 24,110 2,621 230 12 83,332.33
Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-4 20.91 999,251 16,648 1,451 95 3 333,332.33
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 4-1 16.97 1,000,000 9,722 627 20 1 999,999.00
Brookstone 4 – A 3-4 16.89 387,331 2,862 90 6 1 999,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 4-3 13.82 999,974 5,794 272 11
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 4-3 12.50 999,631 4,131 187 5
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-4 6.49 340,322 346 6
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 3-4 4.35 40,884 34 2
Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-5 7.22 8,380 10 1
Walker 6 – A 1-6 8.52 43,780 66
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-6 -2.17 126,227 33
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-5 -4.69 56,065 9
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-6 -5.91 912
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-6 -14.85 190
Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-6 0.44 18
St. Francis 6 – A 1-6 -11.83 9
Pacelli 4 – A 1-7 -11.35
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-7 -14.44

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