Maxwell playoff projections after Week 8

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


Class AAAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
4 – AAAAAAA 155,526 844,474 96,683 2,275 15 302,272 697,728 10,883 478,147 1.09
6 – AAAAAAA 297,112 702,888 57,708 1,415 9 533,374 466,626 4,158 226,974 3.41
8 – AAAAAAA 321,382 678,618 121,783 2,600 15 648,157 351,843 7,392 153,994 5.49
7 – AAAAAAA 429,288 570,712 51,382 1,211 5 815,048 184,952 1,962 66,526 14.03
1 – AAAAAAA 553,789 446,211 68,400 1,638 6 840,252 159,748 3,974 47,132 20.22
3 – AAAAAAA 737,247 262,753 18,022 295 1 897,794 102,206 628 26,593 36.60
5 – AAAAAAA 969,095 30,905 258 1 995,546 4,454 2 384 2,603.17
2 – AAAAAAA 960,607 39,393 327 996,560 3,440 4 250 3,999.00

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 6-0 98.31 999,990 907,309 842,419 688,231 475,492 1.10
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 7-0 93.88 1,000,000 821,123 685,464 458,668 225,534 3.43
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 5-1 91.29 999,995 871,008 651,204 332,518 149,965 5.67
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 6-0 86.10 1,000,000 688,275 534,244 172,509 64,954 14.40
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-4 85.19 996,795 650,183 329,082 122,404 39,349 24.41
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 5-1 83.16 999,471 697,964 223,795 93,501 25,654 37.98
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 6-1 77.82 994,551 404,222 162,070 37,681 7,458 133.08
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 2-4 75.22 975,320 366,854 124,953 23,756 3,813 261.26
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 5-1 74.12 987,717 189,176 79,436 18,834 2,591 384.95
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 3-3 71.81 993,059 141,342 46,178 9,141 1,207 827.50
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 4-2 71.99 997,398 259,710 50,387 8,962 1,065 937.97
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 4-2 69.91 991,148 268,095 37,130 7,047 798 1,252.13
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 4-2 69.16 994,433 216,993 38,068 5,414 506 1,975.28
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-1 66.59 989,251 214,110 20,230 3,386 331 3,020.15
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-2 67.66 913,445 188,618 24,032 3,558 324 3,085.42
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 3-3 65.84 994,896 163,958 28,456 2,616 202 4,949.50
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 6-1 65.71 937,938 100,306 17,804 1,816 147 6,801.72
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 5-2 66.87 890,570 73,487 15,090 1,789 140 7,141.86
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-1 65.50 959,575 109,982 13,928 1,719 116 8,619.69
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-4 64.38 926,757 75,085 12,563 1,159 86 11,626.91
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 4-2-1 63.55 974,575 69,637 11,663 1,169 76 13,156.89
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 4-2 62.15 990,364 74,057 10,422 796 47 21,275.60
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 3-3 62.43 964,788 99,027 7,571 861 46 21,738.13
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 4-3 62.50 777,020 63,212 9,434 740 37 27,026.03
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 3-3 62.90 792,334 56,908 6,080 566 25 39,999.00
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 4-2 61.61 656,299 47,729 6,189 456 16 62,499.00
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-3 60.79 583,302 39,648 4,496 284 10 99,999.00
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 3-3 57.88 827,447 35,578 2,220 168 7 142,856.14
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-4 57.20 343,020 23,744 1,071 79 1 999,999.00
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-3 57.99 400,561 19,242 1,474 66 1 999,999.00
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 3-4 51.53 971,784 27,216 609 29 1 999,999.00
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 2-4 50.79 824,019 3,910 318 13 1 999,999.00
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-4 54.82 700,126 15,108 865 32
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 3-3 52.36 914,039 6,786 523 19
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-2 51.18 604,148 5,792 277 9
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-5 51.83 236,158 1,304 103 3
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-3 51.21 303,615 2,644 138 1
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-5 45.51 147,357 489 10
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 4-3 36.45 56,830 85 2
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 4-2 37.16 273,103 63 2
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-4 37.88 28,873 12
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-2 34.25 59,716 8
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-5 33.63 12,579 1
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-6 20.70 11,207
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-4 22.03 3,829
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-6 10.84 348
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-6 22.03 185
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-7 -1.36 65

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
1 – AAAAAA 46,547 953,453 700,024 277,555 41,616 148,522 851,478 341,446 692,259 0.44
6 – AAAAAA 434,787 565,213 91,615 3,830 45 738,094 261,906 8,594 111,165 8.00
5 – AAAAAA 510,368 489,632 106,754 9,796 305 770,322 229,678 10,837 87,667 10.41
4 – AAAAAA 648,913 351,087 21,147 272 1 823,014 176,986 448 75,411 12.26
2 – AAAAAA 730,021 269,979 14,735 133 899,994 100,006 241 30,847 31.42
8 – AAAAAA 927,589 72,411 1,216 4 985,489 14,511 15 2,215 450.47
7 – AAAAAA 971,862 28,138 285 1 996,177 3,823 2 436 2,292.58
3 – AAAAAA 999,249 751 999,971 29

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 6-1 84.03 981,865 838,114 724,036 533,657 377,563 1.65
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 6-1 78.45 954,564 724,528 549,660 325,705 161,412 5.20
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-0 78.21 933,094 691,328 508,091 282,912 141,278 6.08
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 6-0 75.68 998,464 756,463 459,852 217,358 98,887 9.11
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 5-1 75.34 999,991 669,603 341,546 173,922 75,105 12.31
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 5-1 75.41 987,526 474,232 285,536 143,365 62,325 15.04
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 5-1 70.11 999,477 688,305 255,230 96,967 30,583 31.70
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 6-1 68.47 992,198 286,765 145,802 48,724 13,954 70.66
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 6-0 66.55 995,518 437,450 151,032 44,147 10,900 90.74
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 6-1 67.42 646,215 299,025 128,928 37,268 9,534 103.89
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 6-0 66.80 922,566 247,418 112,370 34,295 8,629 114.89
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 6-1 63.31 943,698 136,711 59,246 13,565 2,691 370.61
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 4-2 63.04 484,262 176,621 61,935 13,382 2,472 403.53
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 4-2 60.41 993,842 338,392 58,029 12,899 2,089 477.70
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 2-4 60.61 825,994 228,510 42,381 8,367 1,348 740.84
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 5-2 56.31 995,324 34,086 11,827 1,716 220 4,544.45
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 5-2 56.24 981,552 36,259 10,099 1,416 178 5,616.98
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 3-3 53.39 968,868 164,432 15,000 1,792 159 6,288.31
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 4-2 53.51 962,393 138,503 15,208 1,819 154 6,492.51
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 4-3 53.12 999,996 95,218 14,636 1,647 145 6,895.55
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 2-4 52.44 949,154 111,251 10,620 1,212 101 9,899.99
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-2 52.34 950,401 106,004 10,810 1,185 97 10,308.28
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-2 58.72 101,436 8,168 2,802 455 57 17,542.86
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 4-2 53.51 919,683 21,889 4,648 562 32 31,249.00
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 3-3 50.03 890,096 57,025 4,629 404 25 39,999.00
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-4 51.43 223,363 30,220 2,288 243 18 55,554.56
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 5-0 47.50 938,258 53,657 3,599 276 13 76,922.08
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 4-3 54.79 51,551 2,567 730 111 11 90,908.09
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-3 48.37 664,413 61,343 3,766 283 9 111,110.11
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 4-3 49.31 971,091 12,365 1,847 131 6 166,665.67
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 4-2 47.51 287,585 24,140 1,385 102 3 333,332.33
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-4 44.19 720,958 26,712 1,196 70 2 499,999.00
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 3-3 42.49 972,357 5,074 420 19
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 4-2 41.71 965,035 4,161 312 10
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 4-3 39.72 716,377 6,829 275 9
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-5 40.31 242,387 3,470 125 3
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-2 36.64 439,749 2,134 76 2
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 3-4 31.74 851,447 404 13
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 1-5 26.99 479,910 90 5
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 3-4 35.57 58,468 48 3
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-6 31.80 26,421 80 2
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 2-4 29.39 29,506 87 1
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 2-2-1 25.75 149,471 86 1
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-4 33.98 11,873 64 1
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-1 25.82 466,883 63 1
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 1-5 36.99 52,563 48 1
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-3 23.45 264,368 23
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-4 29.26 2,854 13
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 1-5 33.01 20,696 11
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-5 29.12 1,809 6
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-4-1 21.85 10,782 3
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-6 35.97 950 2
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-4 24.93 620
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-6 34.48 69
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-7 31.13 6
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-5 24.79 3
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-7 6.52
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 1-7 4.57

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
8 – AAAAA 233,922 766,078 60,182 528 1 338,927 661,073 6,964 507,816 0.97
4 – AAAAA 125,341 874,659 351,152 20,600 323 450,500 549,500 50,357 251,042 2.98
7 – AAAAA 258,430 741,570 253,846 31,768 699 568,420 431,580 41,874 177,219 4.64
2 – AAAAA 707,714 292,286 819 866,197 133,803 35,746 26.98
6 – AAAAA 705,762 294,238 11,290 20 936,922 63,078 255 18,542 52.93
1 – AAAAA 888,448 111,552 4,157 55 968,098 31,902 96 6,213 159.95
3 – AAAAA 890,617 109,383 3,631 28 982,519 17,481 31 2,218 449.86
5 – AAAAA 929,524 70,476 655 987,994 12,006 1,204 829.56

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 5-1 83.11 999,995 906,756 770,786 656,941 506,695 0.97
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 6-0 74.90 999,970 844,351 746,048 446,975 210,730 3.75
Kell 7 – AAAAA 5-1 72.19 999,972 858,915 566,417 315,133 122,250 7.18
Rome 7 – AAAAA 4-2 68.37 997,605 739,454 208,610 104,102 42,447 22.56
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 5-2 65.72 991,277 581,963 409,973 130,357 36,271 26.57
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 2-3 66.75 999,994 643,285 292,726 133,795 35,746 26.98
Grady 6 – AAAAA 5-1 63.95 999,891 425,554 270,650 58,047 18,095 54.26
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 5-1 61.91 972,232 645,820 244,990 53,656 12,497 79.02
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 5-2 61.42 993,003 303,966 71,175 25,488 5,587 177.99
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 4-2 59.72 927,473 161,571 69,570 18,992 3,641 273.65
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 6-1 56.41 960,804 298,765 74,237 13,911 1,964 508.16
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 5-1 53.02 998,645 365,683 67,029 11,800 1,197 834.42
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 5-1 54.37 990,678 194,495 48,462 10,427 1,090 916.43
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2-4 53.17 951,337 163,872 29,962 5,364 572 1,747.25
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 4-2 51.26 996,809 83,999 33,724 5,240 442 2,261.44
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 5-2 54.09 527,407 70,140 17,085 3,010 350 2,856.14
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 5-1 48.95 963,675 132,616 19,060 2,078 151 6,621.52
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 3-4 46.97 904,931 122,292 15,621 1,209 92 10,868.57
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 1-6 46.64 782,827 86,007 9,683 866 46 21,738.13
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 3-3 49.83 241,422 17,457 3,000 416 42 23,808.52
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 3-4 44.65 952,706 37,828 7,334 662 31 32,257.06
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 1-5 46.32 114,368 17,984 1,841 208 12 83,332.33
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 5-2 44.03 693,371 40,178 3,569 281 10 99,999.00
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-3 41.03 492,900 44,694 2,992 191 9 111,110.11
Ola 4 – AAAAA 3-3 44.55 281,254 10,291 1,001 100 8 124,999.00
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 3-3 40.88 972,682 54,072 3,928 204 7 142,856.14
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 3-4 41.85 695,609 42,360 3,304 192 7 142,856.14
Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-3 41.31 280,298 27,061 1,911 92 4 249,999.00
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 4-2 36.43 859,700 9,322 829 30 4 249,999.00
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-3 39.67 577,224 25,707 1,640 88 1 999,999.00
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 3-2-1 39.64 350,032 8,816 545 33 1 999,999.00
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 3-3 37.33 726,756 4,192 333 16 1 999,999.00
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 3-4 41.66 93,916 9,661 662 48
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-3 42.93 48,709 5,630 463 24
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-5 39.91 31,107 667 57 7
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-6 34.83 965,145 3,368 275 6
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-4 31.95 649,020 2,255 165 5
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 2-4 31.41 779,988 4,247 141 2
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-6 27.06 871,750 737 57 1
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-6 26.54 851,342 716 46 1
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-4 28.70 259,004 363 23 1
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-3 30.01 148,586 223 17 1
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-4 25.15 586,959 725 17
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-4 25.65 522,966 715 16
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 4-2 27.35 401,573 433 13
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-3 32.39 126,716 740 11
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 1-4-1 13.22 311,769 32 1
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-5 16.20 138,760 20 1
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 1-5 21.33 12,097 2
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-5 19.90 1,800
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-6 12.93 1,374
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-6 11.61 471
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-4-1 24.77 86
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-7 -4.72 11
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-6 18.90 4
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-7 14.33
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 0-7 -22.78
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 1-2 -31.64

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
5 – AAAA 155,431 844,569 291,396 39,351 1,696 217,190 782,810 61,204 638,230 0.57
3 – AAAA 324,471 675,529 23,503 46 441,601 558,399 2,500 195,406 4.12
4 – AAAA 688,881 311,119 28,346 267 1 768,481 231,519 4,845 107,309 8.32
8 – AAAA 501,039 498,961 87,987 2,797 20 865,880 134,120 2,020 22,616 43.22
7 – AAAA 580,851 419,149 50,951 335 914,805 85,195 1,602 17,402 56.46
2 – AAAA 656,474 343,526 33,691 649 1 944,739 55,261 486 9,274 106.83
1 – AAAA 713,200 286,800 16,396 66 931,371 68,629 93 8,966 110.53
6 – AAAA 957,464 42,536 314 1 988,685 11,315 2 797 1,253.71

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 7-0 83.82 999,949 937,066 791,081 745,489 621,567 0.61
Thomson 3 – AAAA 6-0 72.39 999,998 766,352 660,874 549,660 194,111 4.15
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 6-1 70.77 999,974 846,505 257,559 209,837 104,643 8.56
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 5-1 59.52 995,601 620,246 346,765 95,975 17,672 55.59
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 4-2 60.55 869,926 375,727 233,497 66,079 13,352 73.90
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 5-2 58.07 999,195 432,153 260,545 47,267 10,217 96.88
Cairo 1 – AAAA 5-1 56.30 998,393 472,614 261,264 65,951 8,784 112.84
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 5-2 56.18 994,535 511,551 259,089 37,378 7,654 129.65
Marist 7 – AAAA 4-2 56.92 998,862 354,115 203,580 38,799 7,161 138.65
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 5-1 53.74 943,929 392,901 153,028 27,079 3,662 272.07
Eastside 4 – AAAA 5-1-1 52.54 999,524 387,032 73,266 26,030 2,644 377.21
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-2 52.46 910,110 174,881 80,157 15,855 1,725 578.71
Troup 5 – AAAA 5-1 51.77 927,192 155,270 67,811 16,416 1,573 634.73
Burke County 3 – AAAA 5-1 51.77 998,797 98,704 37,568 11,229 1,295 771.20
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 5-1 50.59 882,571 249,511 69,403 10,678 1,167 855.90
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-2 49.36 937,318 234,416 67,551 9,205 898 1,112.59
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 5-0 48.97 999,401 227,995 35,545 10,955 787 1,269.65
Spalding 2 – AAAA 3-4 49.55 904,972 189,828 44,840 8,699 708 1,411.43
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-3 44.78 780,260 68,065 19,271 1,617 121 8,263.46
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-6 44.89 658,376 98,990 15,427 1,905 98 10,203.08
Westover 1 – AAAA 4-2 41.13 822,365 71,704 16,211 834 52 19,229.77
West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-2 41.42 949,852 26,630 6,288 730 24 41,665.67
Salem 4 – AAAA 4-2 38.38 932,469 47,374 5,740 441 20 49,999.00
Madison County 8 – AAAA 5-1 41.38 496,286 46,242 5,140 503 17 58,822.53
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 3-3 39.95 720,454 46,932 5,771 433 14 71,427.57
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-5 42.15 170,457 13,112 3,074 132 9 111,110.11
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 4-3 39.58 977,674 36,709 4,545 245 5 199,999.00
Pickens 6 – AAAA 3-3 35.80 967,855 25,709 2,418 108 5 199,999.00
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 4-2 35.65 512,935 11,280 1,651 77 4 249,999.00
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 2-3-1 39.99 120,967 7,182 1,394 43 4 249,999.00
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 2-4 39.12 418,941 15,980 3,069 152 3 333,332.33
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-2 38.33 431,489 9,646 1,770 90 2 499,999.00
Luella 4 – AAAA 3-4 37.15 603,477 19,924 3,050 54 2 499,999.00
Perry 2 – AAAA 3-3 34.83 403,129 8,785 616 32
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-3 28.47 888,590 7,822 611 10
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 5-2 27.81 971,986 6,737 341 9
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 3-3 26.14 412,627 2,427 114 2
Columbus 1 – AAAA 2-4 30.51 26,667 258 26 1
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 3-4 24.80 564,906 355 16 1
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 2-3 17.89 610,177 609 19
White County 7 – AAAA 1-6 22.88 487,185 205 6
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 4-3 14.81 498,029 258 5
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-6 18.31 23,237 52 2
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-6 15.96 37,180 29 2
Howard 2 – AAAA 1-6 22.05 39,592 57
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 4-3 13.72 65,676 36
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 2-5 16.98 14,749 11
Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-5 24.25 8,950 9
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-7 21.82 1,399 3
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-5 5.98 12,105 1
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-6 9.32 5,303
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-7 -14.97 4,409

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
7 – AAA 242,478 757,522 46,343 262 399,068 600,932 3,568 493,751 1.03
5 – AAA 108,091 891,909 530,572 146,148 9,455 341,592 658,408 129,705 336,987 1.97
4 – AAA 572,360 427,640 57,413 1,805 13 834,314 165,686 3,131 66,398 14.06
1 – AAA 580,518 419,482 41,790 1,362 14 807,024 192,976 1,843 48,591 19.58
6 – AAA 657,273 342,727 21,189 327 1 830,020 169,980 490 43,048 22.23
2 – AAA 782,959 217,041 15,417 349 2 938,390 61,610 580 10,470 94.51
8 – AAA 948,646 51,354 536 1 992,235 7,765 7 549 1,820.49
3 – AAA 980,724 19,276 49 996,682 3,318 1 206 4,853.37

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 6-1 71.80 999,997 816,132 770,726 598,059 493,169 1.03
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 4-2 64.04 999,883 850,159 653,448 347,072 209,588 3.77
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 4-2 57.40 997,619 621,271 425,527 221,683 70,744 13.14
Peach County 4 – AAA 5-1 57.65 999,107 758,449 364,128 140,956 62,578 14.98
Crisp County 1 – AAA 6-0 55.01 996,738 446,641 348,414 172,390 45,600 20.93
Calhoun 6 – AAA 5-2 54.80 991,273 656,317 315,532 163,065 42,345 22.62
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 4-2 54.44 980,641 568,214 361,050 166,381 41,425 23.14
Lovett 5 – AAA 4-2 53.21 909,330 205,185 137,687 52,939 15,229 64.66
Liberty County 2 – AAA 4-1 48.00 990,514 513,331 121,807 37,330 7,359 134.89
Jackson 4 – AAA 5-2 45.23 983,784 343,103 90,505 23,542 3,499 284.80
Pierce County 2 – AAA 3-2 43.73 975,761 352,967 70,379 16,874 2,260 441.48
Worth County 1 – AAA 4-3 43.78 946,590 136,967 60,470 13,303 1,971 506.36
Cook 1 – AAA 3-4 41.68 923,605 106,552 39,380 7,260 880 1,135.36
Appling County 2 – AAA 3-1 41.21 934,812 226,268 39,150 7,907 848 1,178.25
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 5-2 40.15 903,544 222,424 34,335 6,087 642 1,556.63
Dawson County 7 – AAA 4-1 41.31 980,543 64,009 28,716 5,962 556 1,797.56
Hart County 8 – AAA 1-4-1 38.20 997,611 241,152 35,694 6,033 434 2,303.15
Jenkins 3 – AAA 4-1 36.88 999,800 75,769 17,102 3,214 203 4,925.11
Pike County 4 – AAA 4-2 36.23 883,118 133,006 16,007 2,187 160 6,249.00
Monroe 1 – AAA 2-3 36.75 823,003 56,353 14,020 1,843 140 7,141.86
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 3-4 37.70 654,946 111,689 12,722 1,782 134 7,461.69
Morgan County 8 – AAA 4-2 34.97 989,598 147,209 14,163 1,635 108 9,258.26
Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-4 31.57 723,169 81,674 7,134 714 37 27,026.03
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-2 33.96 420,460 45,672 3,495 350 27 37,036.04
Bremen 6 – AAA 3-3 31.25 692,368 72,655 6,239 575 24 41,665.67
North Hall 7 – AAA 5-2 33.86 763,904 21,262 3,643 410 22 45,453.55
Franklin County 8 – AAA 2-5 27.96 925,239 37,994 1,929 104 7 142,856.14
Union County 7 – AAA 5-2 27.86 660,429 6,346 768 52 4 249,999.00
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 2-3 30.20 998,685 15,116 2,165 104 3 333,332.33
Brantley County 2 – AAA 3-1 26.94 487,961 12,945 772 45 2 499,999.00
Redan 5 – AAA 2-4 31.53 107,930 1,526 368 38 1 999,999.00
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-2 26.29 557,112 13,639 696 33 1 999,999.00
Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-4 25.10 310,064 4,313 365 23
North Murray 6 – AAA 4-2 25.66 333,813 15,650 746 22
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 3-3 24.23 534,721 2,966 271 16
Ringgold 6 – AAA 3-4 22.03 207,621 6,221 199 5
Murray County 6 – AAA 4-3 19.06 138,548 2,718 60 2
Savannah 3 – AAA 4-1 16.27 971,638 974 56 1
Long County 2 – AAA 1-1-2 12.08 53,840 109 4 1
East Hall 7 – AAA 2-5 19.86 34,255 88 4 1
Jackson County 8 – AAA 2-5 17.12 782,893 3,671 100
Rutland 4 – AAA 2-5 19.96 55,295 760 15
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 2-5 12.02 165,078 300 5
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 3-2 8.22 864,227 129 3
Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-4 12.84 26,151 21 1
East Jackson 8 – AAA 2-4 4.91 139,581 57
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-6 15.31 3,290 15
Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-5 2.85 7,844 5
Towers 5 – AAA 1-5 13.20 4,095 4
Islands 3 – AAA 1-4 -1.69 134,063 2
Beach 3 – AAA 1-5 1.63 23,040 1
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-4 -8.88 8,246
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-6 -14.08 1,603
McNair 5 – AAA 3-3 6.92 491
Groves 3 – AAA 1-5 -3.69 301
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-6 -23.34 217
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-5 -1.49 11

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.

Teams in Semifinals Teams in Finals
Region Eliminated 1+ 2+ 3+ 4 Eliminated 1+ 2 Champion Odds
2 – AA 159,245 840,755 134,808 4,500 23 317,782 682,218 22,640 529,651 0.89
1 – AA 353,529 646,471 136,281 8,468 158 477,868 522,132 30,080 225,551 3.43
5 – AA 322,079 677,921 128,693 2,143 5 742,750 257,250 3,829 128,917 6.76
8 – AA 619,768 380,232 11,332 19 702,626 297,374 777 85,896 10.64
4 – AA 579,573 420,427 55,930 96 915,560 84,440 810 19,850 49.38
7 – AA 847,668 152,332 6,190 81 957,060 42,940 196 5,653 175.90
3 – AA 768,231 231,769 7,228 43 961,687 38,313 39 3,456 288.35
6 – AA 848,793 151,207 2,883 6 983,043 16,957 5 1,026 973.66

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 6-0 71.36 1,000,000 943,266 821,081 668,813 526,311 0.90
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 5-1 63.42 999,770 834,935 529,949 439,183 195,133 4.12
Callaway 5 – AA 6-0 60.86 999,833 821,155 665,654 243,234 127,818 6.82
Rabun County 8 – AA 5-0 57.67 999,990 733,950 367,191 290,498 85,120 10.75
Brooks County 1 – AA 5-1 54.14 996,493 603,559 203,092 106,114 29,721 32.65
Jefferson County 4 – AA 7-0 50.57 999,990 794,342 342,858 69,930 18,808 52.17
Model 7 – AA 5-1 44.42 996,803 205,876 90,328 28,307 3,159 315.56
Washington County 3 – AA 4-2 42.87 990,341 299,720 162,737 30,090 3,018 330.35
Vidalia 2 – AA 4-2 43.23 991,474 282,179 103,057 29,193 2,963 336.50
Pepperell 7 – AA 4-1 45.87 999,696 291,718 43,664 12,980 2,415 413.08
Screven County 4 – AA 5-1 37.75 999,718 371,364 131,700 14,917 1,032 967.99
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 3-3 37.80 965,566 310,004 119,105 14,952 952 1,049.42
Elbert County 8 – AA 5-1-1 40.05 999,348 110,264 23,874 7,648 776 1,287.66
Thomasville 1 – AA 2-3 39.99 934,089 159,307 51,573 6,643 688 1,452.49
Lamar County 5 – AA 3-3 37.79 959,116 158,544 60,296 7,706 502 1,991.03
Toombs County 2 – AA 5-1 35.81 989,185 176,047 53,485 6,766 375 2,665.67
Heard County 5 – AA 5-1 37.06 974,733 141,573 51,126 6,350 370 2,701.70
Spencer 5 – AA 4-2 36.41 923,786 103,496 31,687 3,789 227 4,404.29
Dodge County 3 – AA 3-4 36.41 956,279 66,012 17,356 2,581 156 6,409.26
Dublin 3 – AA 6-1 34.86 954,051 86,268 27,108 2,669 144 6,943.44
Southwest 3 – AA 3-3 34.35 966,075 98,983 31,833 3,012 138 7,245.38
Rockmart 7 – AA 5-1 31.72 989,069 83,464 23,442 1,823 79 12,657.23
Douglass 6 – AA 4-2 30.48 840,297 78,210 14,988 1,036 42 23,808.52
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 5-1 28.09 866,821 64,798 10,659 566 17 58,822.53
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-5 27.22 793,463 59,061 8,661 389 13 76,922.08
Laney 4 – AA 1-5 29.74 970,688 23,055 1,890 403 10 99,999.00
Berrien 1 – AA 3-3 25.76 951,215 34,693 6,525 268 9 111,110.11
Washington 6 – AA 2-5 21.13 385,752 7,787 590 13 2 499,999.00
Bryan County 2 – AA 2-3 24.79 642,392 23,211 1,780 57 1 999,999.00
Swainsboro 2 – AA 1-5 23.22 169,259 5,786 550 28 1 999,999.00
Chattooga 7 – AA 3-3 23.96 800,566 8,378 1,157 26
Therrell 6 – AA 3-4 21.95 124,217 1,336 90 5
Early County 1 – AA 0-6-1 21.92 78,257 1,586 237 4
Banks County 8 – AA 2-4 13.62 872,974 6,334 259 2
Putnam County 8 – AA 1-6 12.58 645,543 4,038 183 2
Bacon County 2 – AA 1-4 19.84 169,286 2,900 129 1
Monticello 8 – AA 1-5 10.84 353,760 1,568 77 1
South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-6 15.73 23,884 59 2 1
Dade County 7 – AA 2-4 12.06 157,644 181 9
Northeast 3 – AA 1-6 16.62 109,813 238 8
Coosa 7 – AA 2-4 10.29 54,381 72 3
Josey 4 – AA 3-3 9.46 417,281 119 2
Metter 2 – AA 1-4 14.07 7,181 38 2
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 1-4 12.33 31,223 147 1
Albany 1 – AA 0-6 8.58 40,176 70 1
Butler 4 – AA 2-4 5.98 180,390 26 1
Temple 5 – AA 5-1 11.52 81,142 88
Jordan 5 – AA 0-6 11.41 61,390 82
Social Circle 8 – AA 2-5 -1.77 126,655 59
Harlem 4 – AA 2-5 6.57 196,914 27
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 2-4 5.09 228,165 24
East Laurens 3 – AA 1-5 8.64 19,666 2
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-6 -11.32 1,730 1
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-5 -5.01 6,854
Bleckley County 3 – AA 1-6 2.70 3,775
Armuchee 7 – AA 1-5 -5.99 1,837
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-6 -17.55 4

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Macon County 4 – A 4-2 52.19 999,542 723,211 529,510 379,180 246,822 3.05
Manchester 4 – A 7-0 51.11 999,995 715,993 497,714 344,299 211,313 3.73
Clinch County 2 – A 5-1 49.43 1,000,000 808,547 612,122 364,511 207,573 3.82
Twiggs County 7 – A 5-1 46.99 999,900 684,625 417,480 240,345 115,175 7.68
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 6-0 45.22 999,947 680,813 390,238 204,430 88,881 10.25
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 7-0 41.75 999,971 593,867 283,177 124,059 43,734 21.87
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 4-1 39.12 999,994 580,938 260,865 90,355 26,960 36.09
Irwin County 2 – A 3-3 39.97 997,146 454,299 218,939 76,051 24,261 40.22
Bowdon 6 – A 5-2 37.47 994,155 335,890 142,524 43,387 11,542 85.64
Lincoln County 7 – A 4-1-1 35.03 988,252 332,311 112,698 30,830 6,825 145.52
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 6-0 30.83 1,000,000 457,154 160,676 30,872 4,869 204.38
Turner County 2 – A 4-2 34.31 932,303 224,825 75,612 19,915 4,159 239.44
Dooly County 4 – A 3-3 35.77 574,523 114,006 40,117 11,600 2,719 366.78
Commerce 8 – A 4-2 30.06 999,375 309,385 79,331 14,645 2,193 455.00
Mitchell County 1 – A 5-1 26.18 999,996 307,065 57,066 8,276 893 1,118.82
Taylor County 4 – A 5-1 29.40 843,245 100,922 25,095 4,525 672 1,487.10
Greene County 7 – A 4-2 28.37 891,353 125,014 28,679 4,700 570 1,753.39
Marion County 4 – A 5-2 29.83 739,621 84,693 19,761 3,860 551 1,813.88
Pelham 1 – A 5-1 20.49 999,999 140,867 18,911 1,595 98 10,203.08
Trion 6 – A 4-2 24.65 553,980 42,390 7,545 839 71 14,083.51
Telfair County 2 – A 2-3 21.65 508,141 29,675 4,763 418 34 29,410.76
Gordon Lee 6 – A 4-3 22.22 643,700 31,164 4,698 428 27 37,036.04
Warren County 7 – A 3-3 22.15 325,352 18,081 2,634 229 24 41,665.67
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 1-5 28.04 7,065 2,034 353 83 11 90,908.09
Terrell County 1 – A 4-3 17.03 962,992 31,682 3,470 195 8 124,999.00
Miller County 1 – A 4-2 14.77 929,694 25,630 2,176 135 5 199,999.00
Seminole County 1 – A 3-2-1 15.31 739,468 19,742 1,510 79 4 249,999.00
Charlton County 2 – A 1-4 25.11 51,208 3,796 637 73 4 249,999.00
Hancock Central 7 – A 3-3 18.87 118,282 3,878 412 26 1 999,999.00
Atkinson County 2 – A 2-4 18.39 70,405 2,411 249 17 1 999,999.00
Jenkins County 3 – A 4-2 13.25 729,955 10,957 787 35
Johnson County 3 – A 4-3 11.60 303,871 3,229 180 6
Wheeler County 3 – A 5-2 10.55 18,319 298 27 1
Crawford County 4 – A 3-2 14.43 14,008 280 24 1
Treutlen 3 – A 3-4 7.44 18,688 125 12
Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-3 13.22 6,855 110 5
Towns County 8 – A 2-4 1.59 33,719 84 3
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 1-5 2.28 3,986 8
Calhoun County 1 – A 1-5 -9.15 962 1
Lanier County 2 – A 1-5 1.08 14
Wilcox County 2 – A 1-5 3.97 9
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-5 -15.56 4
Stewart County 1 – A 1-5 -21.56 3
Claxton 3 – A 0-5 -1.99 2
Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-6 7.62 1
Schley County 4 – A 2-4 7.38
Montgomery County 3 – A 1-6 0.72
Portal 3 – A 0-5 -3.15
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-5 -6.33
Greenville 4 – A 0-7 -10.01
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-7 -31.36

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 7-0 60.74 1,000,000 931,703 812,841 684,655 560,358 0.78
Wesleyan 5 – A 6-1 50.92 1,000,000 826,955 575,095 317,025 147,016 5.80
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 7-0 46.21 1,000,000 771,008 485,489 252,785 76,661 12.04
Landmark Christian 5 – A 7-0 45.76 1,000,000 738,071 393,471 170,172 58,363 16.13
Calvary Day 3 – A 5-0 45.38 1,000,000 596,323 313,462 129,255 42,872 22.33
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 6-0 43.29 1,000,000 631,095 292,302 106,192 31,387 30.86
Darlington 6 – A 5-2 43.34 1,000,000 593,765 239,308 92,827 27,392 35.51
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 5-1 43.15 1,000,000 595,889 241,121 93,104 26,582 36.62
Tattnall Square 7 – A 6-0 41.36 999,999 356,517 156,247 51,388 12,836 76.91
Stratford Academy 7 – A 4-2 38.26 1,000,000 289,009 102,625 27,805 5,725 173.67
Aquinas 7 – A 4-2 36.73 998,122 229,222 77,363 19,282 3,450 288.86
First Presbyterian 7 – A 5-1 34.89 999,989 210,170 59,363 12,892 2,041 488.96
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 4-2 34.64 999,999 221,322 60,893 12,687 1,996 500.00
Athens Academy 8 – A 6-0 31.71 1,000,000 384,789 83,127 14,819 1,713 582.77
Savannah Christian 3 – A 3-2 31.76 999,968 114,453 28,825 5,111 643 1,554.21
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-1 31.74 999,973 102,936 25,647 4,267 513 1,948.32
George Walton Academy 8 – A 5-1 26.94 1,000,000 152,387 22,075 2,624 234 4,272.50
Athens Christian 8 – A 3-3 25.85 999,998 158,664 22,039 2,451 183 5,463.48
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 2-5 23.46 923,749 28,211 3,334 302 22 45,453.55
Holy Innocents 5 – A 3-4 23.22 902,259 28,386 2,802 225 9 111,110.11
Brookstone 4 – A 3-3 19.73 400,109 7,825 557 40 2 499,999.00
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 4-1 17.82 996,621 13,321 1,023 53 1 999,999.00
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 4-3 15.53 999,106 7,930 510 26 1 999,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 4-2 13.66 997,176 7,770 405 9
Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-4 15.33 129,496 1,188 53 3
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-4 8.31 306,148 787 15 1
Walker 6 – A 1-6 10.98 37,671 154 6
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-5 -2.16 211,674 78 2
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-4 6.17 22,262 41
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-4 0.01 72,924 30
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-5 -5.55 277 1
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-5 -15.86 1,162
St. Francis 6 – A 1-5 -5.16 1,076
Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-6 3.28 239
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-6 -8.14 3
Pacelli 4 – A 1-6 -1.76

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