Maxwell Round 3 Summary: Mays becomes newest Cinderella

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Round 3:

– Archer is the latest team to bubble up to #2 in Class AAAAAA, the seventh change at that position in the past seven weeks.  Aside from Colquitt County, the top teams have been muddled in the ratings since early in the season.  The difference between #2 Archer and #23 Camden County is 16 points, roughly the same difference between Colquitt County and Archer.

 

– The top two classifications have five of the six remaining bracket busters (teams that would have less than a 50% probability of surviving to this point if the tournament were to be replayed again).  Newton was last week’s most improbable team, but lost to Etowah over the weekend.  Mays followed up a Round 2 upset over Ware County with a quarterfinal victory over Jones County to become the tournament’s newest Cinderella in the playoffs.

– Below are the six bracket busters by class (Class AAAA, Class AAA, and Class AA do not have any bracket busters):

AAAAAA
Team Prob
McEachern 37.9%
Etowah 39.4%
Archer 41.3%
AAAAA
Team Prob
Mays 22.7%
Stockbridge 35.0%
A
Team Prob
Commerce 44.8%

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,001 of 2,220 total games including 4 ties (90.23%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.86 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 0.84

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 13-0 102.83 1 Allatoona 13-0 82.55
2 Archer 10-3 86.73 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 12-1 74.78
3 Grayson 10-2 86.47 3 Ware County 11-1 73.98
4 Dacula 10-2 85.49 4 Mays 11-2 73.96
5 McEachern 10-3 84.53 5 Stockbridge 11-2 69.36
6 Milton 11-2 83.36 6 Coffee 10-2 69.26
7 Tucker 10-3 82.45 7 Creekside 9-3 67.36
8 Lee County 8-3 81.13 8 Houston County 10-3 66.81
9 Mill Creek 7-4 80.99 9 South Paulding 8-3 66.08
10 North Gwinnett 8-3 78.91 10 Jones County 10-3 65.85
11 Valdosta 9-2 78.65 11 Dalton 9-3 65.43
12 Etowah 11-2 77.63 12 Kell 11-1 64.90
13 Peachtree Ridge 7-4 77.42 13 Gainesville 10-3 64.45
14 Tift County 7-4 76.30 14 Alexander 8-3 63.42
15 Lowndes 6-4 76.27 15 Stephenson 8-4 62.38
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 13-0 94.69 1 Blessed Trinity 13-0 84.95
2 Cartersville 12-1 75.07 2 Washington County 13-0 79.18
3 Marist 11-2 74.07 3 Jefferson 12-1 74.81
4 Woodward Academy 11-2 71.33 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 12-1 74.69
5 Sandy Creek 11-2 70.84 5 Calhoun 13-0 74.64
6 St. Pius X 11-2 69.85 6 Hart County 11-2 65.40
7 North Oconee 9-4 64.69 7 Elbert County 9-4 61.36
8 Griffin 11-1 63.25 8 Peach County 10-1 61.11
9 Mary Persons 9-3 62.45 9 Central (Carrollton) 11-1 61.05
10 Whitewater 7-4 62.14 10 Cedar Grove 9-3 57.64
11 Cairo 9-3 58.37 11 Cook 9-3 56.95
12 West Laurens 9-4 58.10 12 Pierce County 10-3 56.80
13 Columbia 7-4 56.55 13 Adairsville 10-2 56.35
14 Stephens County 8-4 54.77 14 Westside (Macon) 9-2 55.78
15 Carrollton 4-6 52.36 15 Dodge County 9-3 55.56
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 13-0 79.19 1 Mount Paran Christian 12-0 66.40
2 Vidalia 12-1 71.98 2 Marion County 12-0 59.58
3 Benedictine 11-2 71.79 3 Calvary Day 12-0 55.91
4 Lovett 9-4 64.14 4 Irwin County 10-1-1 54.19
5 Fitzgerald 12-1 63.32 5 Hawkinsville 11-1 53.98
6 Brooks County 10-3 55.03 6 Aquinas 12-0 51.87
7 Thomasville 6-5 53.82 7 Savannah Christian 10-2 50.45
8 Macon County 9-3 51.57 8 Eagle’s Landing Christian 6-6 50.07
9 Lamar County 8-3-1 46.15 9 Mount Pisgah Christian 8-4 46.69
10 Pace Academy 7-6 42.65 10 Charlton County 10-2 46.05
11 Rabun County 9-3 42.47 11 Landmark Christian 8-3 44.09
12 Bowdon 8-3 41.57 12 Dooly County 8-4 42.98
13 Bacon County 6-5 40.39 13 Pacelli 7-4 42.22
14 Jefferson County 8-4 39.53 14 Tattnall Square 10-2 41.88
15 Model 9-3 38.74 15 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-4 39.49

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
### = Active playoff team; # = Eliminated playoff team

Rank Team Playoffs Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County ### 1-AAAAAA 13-0 102.83 71.45 4 [4]
2 [1] Buford ### 8-AAAA 13-0 94.69 46.24 122 [20]
3 [2] Archer ### 8-AAAAAA 10-3 86.73 70.20 8 [8]
4 [3] Grayson # 8-AAAAAA 10-2 86.47 69.70 9 [9]
5 [4] Dacula # 8-AAAAAA 10-2 85.49 70.76 6 [6]
6 [1] Blessed Trinity ### 4-Div B-AAA 13-0 84.95 47.67 114 [2]
7 [5] McEachern ### 4-AAAAAA 10-3 84.53 70.47 7 [7]
8 [6] Milton # 5-AAAAAA 11-2 83.36 65.10 25 [25]
9 [1] Allatoona ### 5-AAAAA 13-0 82.55 56.72 53 [7]
10 [7] Tucker # 2-AAAAAA 10-3 82.45 54.61 65 [48]
11 [8] Lee County # 1-AAAAAA 8-3 81.13 66.89 21 [21]
12 [9] Mill Creek # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 80.99 67.80 15 [15]
13 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian ### 6-AA 13-0 79.19 43.44 156 [4]
14 [2] Washington County ### 3-AAA 13-0 79.18 36.99 224 [20]
15 [10] North Gwinnett # 7-AAAAAA 8-3 78.91 67.50 17 [17]
16 [11] Valdosta # 1-AAAAAA 9-2 78.65 64.57 26 [26]
17 [12] Etowah ### 5-AAAAAA 11-2 77.63 60.90 36 [36]
18 [13] Peachtree Ridge # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 77.42 69.44 10 [10]
19 [14] Tift County # 1-AAAAAA 7-4 76.30 65.17 24 [24]
20 [15] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-4 76.27 71.93 2 [2]
21 [16] Hillgrove # 4-AAAAAA 9-4 75.37 65.25 23 [23]
22 [17] Hughes # 3-AAAAAA 9-3 75.25 63.09 29 [29]
23 [2] Cartersville ### 7-AAAA 12-1 75.07 44.57 142 [26]
24 [3] Jefferson # 8-AAA 12-1 74.81 42.38 169 [6]
25 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) ### 2-AAAAA 12-1 74.78 51.94 76 [18]
26 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) ### 4-Div B-AAA 12-1 74.69 45.94 127 [3]
27 [5] Calhoun ### 6-AAA 13-0 74.64 32.11 290 [40]
28 [3] Marist # 6-AAAA 11-2 74.07 49.12 98 [13]
29 [3] Ware County # 3-AAAAA 11-1 73.98 48.76 102 [35]
30 [4] Mays ### 6-Div B-AAAAA 11-2 73.96 55.98 58 [10]
31 [18] Westlake # 3-AAAAAA 9-2 73.78 53.01 71 [50]
32 [19] Lovejoy # 2-AAAAAA 7-4 73.03 64.11 27 [27]
33 [20] Norcross # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 72.78 69.10 12 [12]
34 [21] North Cobb # 4-AAAAAA 7-4 72.55 67.08 19 [19]
35 [2] Vidalia # 2-AA 12-1 71.98 32.89 277 [25]
36 [3] Benedictine ### 2-AA 11-2 71.79 40.30 197 [10]
37 [22] Central Gwinnett # 8-AAAAAA 7-5 71.61 67.92 14 [14]
38 [4] Woodward Academy ### 5-AAAA 11-2 71.33 52.90 72 [7]
39 [5] Sandy Creek # 5-AAAA 11-2 70.84 55.39 63 [5]
40 [23] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 70.73 69.24 11 [11]
41 [6] St. Pius X ### 6-AAAA 11-2 69.85 46.92 117 [18]
42 [5] Stockbridge ### 4-Div B-AAAAA 11-2 69.36 48.14 107 [38]
43 [6] Coffee # 3-AAAAA 10-2 69.26 48.38 105 [37]
44 [24] Newton # 2-AAAAAA 7-4 69.22 59.80 39 [39]
45 [25] Roswell # 5-AAAAAA 8-4 69.18 62.12 33 [33]
46 [26] Alpharetta # 6-AAAAAA 10-2 68.94 45.47 134 [53]
47 [7] Creekside # 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-3 67.36 56.76 51 [5]
48 [8] Houston County # 2-AAAAA 10-3 66.81 50.26 85 [23]
49 [27] Cherokee # 5-AAAAAA 7-4 66.57 58.18 43 [42]
50 [1] Mount Paran Christian ### 6-Div A-A 12-0 66.40 31.50 296 [16]
51 [9] South Paulding # 5-AAAAA 8-3 66.08 56.72 54 [8]
52 [10] Jones County # 2-AAAAA 10-3 65.85 52.39 75 [17]
53 [28] East Coweta # 3-AAAAAA 8-3 65.79 55.60 62 [47]
54 [11] Dalton # 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 65.43 47.10 116 [42]
55 [6] Hart County # 8-AAA 11-2 65.40 40.25 198 [12]
56 [29] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 5-5 65.10 66.98 20 [20]
57 [12] Kell # 7-Div B-AAAAA 11-1 64.90 47.91 111 [41]
58 [30] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 4-6 64.89 67.68 16 [16]
59 [7] North Oconee # 8-AAAA 9-4 64.69 50.99 80 [10]
60 [13] Gainesville # 8-AAAAA 10-3 64.45 46.75 118 [43]
61 [4] Lovett # 6-AA 9-4 64.14 47.61 115 [3]
62 [14] Alexander # 5-AAAAA 8-3 63.42 56.52 55 [9]
63 [5] Fitzgerald ### 1-AA 12-1 63.32 42.23 172 [5]
64 [8] Griffin # 4-Div B-AAAA 11-1 63.25 33.74 270 [58]
65 [9] Mary Persons # 2-AAAA 9-3 62.45 49.07 100 [14]
66 [31] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 6-4 62.43 57.31 46 [44]
67 [15] Stephenson # 6-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 62.38 48.02 109 [39]
68 [10] Whitewater # 5-AAAA 7-4 62.14 54.30 66 [6]
69 [16] Glynn Academy # 3-AAAAA 9-4 61.96 54.05 68 [13]
71 [32] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-7 61.36 67.94 13 [13]
70 [7] Elbert County # 8-AAA 9-4 61.36 47.73 113 [1]
72 [33] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-5 61.34 62.46 32 [32]
73 [8] Peach County # 2-AAA 10-1 61.11 32.26 287 [38]
74 [9] Central (Carrollton) # 5-AAA 11-1 61.05 34.00 263 [30]
75 [17] Hiram 5-AAAAA 6-4 60.26 53.20 70 [15]
76 [18] Lanier # 8-AAAAA 10-1 59.77 42.50 167 [66]
77 [19] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 6-4 59.76 49.91 88 [26]
78 [20] New Manchester # 5-AAAAA 6-5 59.74 57.23 47 [3]
79 [2] Marion County ### 4-A 12-0 59.58 30.08 310 [21]
80 [34] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 59.25 71.17 5 [5]
81 [21] Harris County # 1-AAAAA 9-3 59.25 44.04 149 [59]
82 [22] Carver (Atlanta) # 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 59.14 49.42 93 [31]
83 [35] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 58.79 60.27 38 [38]
84 [36] North Paulding # 4-AAAAAA 4-7 58.70 67.40 18 [18]
85 [11] Cairo # 1-Div A-AAAA 9-3 58.37 46.36 121 [19]
86 [12] West Laurens # 2-AAAA 9-4 58.10 51.02 79 [9]
87 [10] Cedar Grove # 4-Div A-AAA 9-3 57.64 37.07 223 [19]
88 [37] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 4-6 57.57 61.00 35 [35]
89 [38] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 2-8 57.40 71.92 3 [3]
90 [23] Mundy’s Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.26 48.63 103 [36]
91 [24] Drew # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.11 47.99 110 [40]
92 [25] Warner Robins # 2-AAAAA 6-5 57.02 52.90 73 [16]
93 [11] Cook # 1-Div A-AAA 9-3 56.95 37.88 219 [17]
94 [12] Pierce County # 1-Div A-AAA 10-3 56.80 40.37 194 [11]
95 [39] Douglas County # 3-AAAAAA 5-6 56.57 58.31 42 [41]
96 [13] Columbia # 6-AAAA 7-4 56.55 45.91 128 [24]
97 [13] Adairsville # 6-AAA 10-2 56.35 23.20 379 [66]
98 [26] Carver (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 8-3 56.10 41.79 178 [69]
99 [3] Calvary Day ### 3-Div A-A 12-0 55.91 25.76 349 [36]
100 [27] Sequoyah # 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-6 55.89 55.91 60 [11]
101 [14] Westside (Macon) # 2-AAA 9-2 55.78 35.55 243 [25]
102 [28] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-6 55.64 56.75 52 [6]
103 [15] Dodge County # 1-Div A-AAA 9-3 55.56 41.43 180 [8]
104 [40] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 55.54 63.99 28 [28]
105 [6] Brooks County ### 1-AA 10-3 55.03 40.83 188 [8]
106 [41] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 4-6 54.79 59.49 40 [40]
107 [14] Stephens County # 8-AAAA 8-4 54.77 44.41 144 [27]
108 [29] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 54.32 45.33 135 [51]
109 [30] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 5-5 54.27 53.96 69 [14]
110 [4] Irwin County ### 2-A 10-1-1 54.19 34.29 257 [6]
111 [5] Hawkinsville ### 4-A 11-1 53.98 32.76 278 [11]
112 [7] Thomasville # 1-AA 6-5 53.82 52.45 74 [1]
113 [31] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 5-5 53.63 55.05 64 [12]
114 [15] Carrollton 5-AAAA 4-6 52.36 56.05 57 [3]
115 [16] Baldwin # 2-AAAA 7-5 52.36 48.58 104 [16]
116 [32] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 52.34 50.49 83 [22]
117 [17] Wayne County # 3-AAAA 6-6 52.12 49.21 96 [12]
118 [18] Fayette County # 5-AAAA 4-7 52.01 56.44 56 [2]
119 [6] Aquinas ### 7-Div B-A 12-0 51.87 26.72 341 [32]
120 [42] Lambert # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 51.66 43.30 158 [57]
121 [8] Macon County # 4-AA 9-3 51.57 36.65 229 [15]
122 [33] Starr’s Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 51.19 49.45 92 [30]
123 [43] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 4-6 51.16 55.73 61 [46]
124 [34] Creekview # 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 51.11 50.25 86 [24]
125 [19] Worth County # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-4 51.08 46.19 124 [21]
126 [16] Appling County # 1-Div A-AAA 8-4 50.99 43.30 159 [5]
127 [35] Brunswick # 3-AAAAA 6-5 50.89 49.21 95 [33]
128 [36] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.57 39.08 210 [79]
129 [7] Savannah Christian # 3-Div A-A 10-2 50.45 25.65 350 [37]
130 [44] Northview # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 50.43 40.76 189 [62]
131 [45] Rockdale County # 2-AAAAAA 5-6 50.32 57.73 45 [43]
132 [37] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 50.22 49.64 90 [28]
133 [46] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 50.21 61.94 34 [34]
134 [20] Burke County # 3-AAAA 7-5 50.11 43.91 150 [28]
135 [8] Eagle’s Landing Christian ### 5-A 6-6 50.07 47.80 112 [1]
136 [21] Troup 5-AAAA 3-7 49.52 55.98 59 [4]
137 [47] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 3-7 49.27 57.06 49 [45]
138 [22] Pickens # 7-AAAA 8-3 49.24 36.99 225 [46]
139 [17] Laney # 3-AAA 7-4 49.03 32.22 288 [39]
140 [23] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 48.93 41.84 176 [35]
141 [38] Evans 2-AAAAA 5-5 48.75 49.16 97 [34]
142 [39] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 48.37 39.74 204 [76]
143 [40] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 47.75 42.05 175 [68]
144 [48] Pope 5-AAAAAA 2-8 47.57 63.04 30 [30]
145 [18] Callaway # 5-AAA 7-5 47.35 40.24 199 [13]
146 [49] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 6-4 47.11 42.14 173 [60]
147 [50] South Forsyth # 6-AAAAAA 6-5 47.10 43.03 163 [58]
148 [24] Westover # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 47.05 43.34 157 [30]
149 [41] Winder-Barrow # 8-AAAAA 6-5 46.97 46.19 123 [46]
150 [42] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 46.81 41.09 186 [72]
151 [9] Mount Pisgah Christian # 6-Div B-A 8-4 46.69 36.05 235 [4]
152 [25] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 7-3 46.56 37.31 222 [45]
153 [26] Bainbridge # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 46.43 43.73 152 [29]
154 [27] Gilmer # 7-AAAA 8-3 46.15 36.21 233 [48]
155 [9] Lamar County # 4-AA 8-3-1 46.15 33.76 268 [22]
156 [10] Charlton County # 2-A 10-2 46.05 31.56 294 [14]
157 [43] Salem # 8-AAAAA 6-5 45.94 44.49 143 [55]
158 [44] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 4-5-1 45.87 49.62 91 [29]
159 [28] White County # 8-AAAA 6-5 45.80 44.65 140 [25]
160 [45] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 6-4 45.75 45.69 130 [47]
161 [19] West Hall # 7-AAA 9-2 45.73 27.62 329 [51]
162 [29] Veterans # 2-AAAA 3-8 45.63 57.09 48 [1]
163 [20] Oconee County # 8-AAA 8-4 44.97 36.58 230 [22]
164 [46] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 5-5 44.70 43.60 155 [62]
165 [30] Grady 6-AAAA 5-5 44.66 42.28 170 [34]
166 [51] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-10 44.32 66.57 22 [22]
167 [11] Landmark Christian # 5-A 8-3 44.09 31.55 295 [15]
168 [47] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 43.95 38.20 217 [81]
169 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 43.80 40.92 187 [73]
170 [49] LaGrange # 1-AAAAA 5-6 43.19 44.62 141 [54]
171 [31] Eagle’s Landing # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 43.18 35.10 249 [54]
172 [12] Dooly County # 4-A 8-4 42.98 33.83 266 [10]
173 [50] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 42.77 44.29 145 [56]
174 [10] Pace Academy # 6-AA 7-6 42.65 41.22 184 [7]
175 [51] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 42.56 45.47 133 [50]
176 [21] Ringgold # 6-AAA 8-3 42.51 26.84 338 [52]
177 [11] Rabun County # 8-AA 9-3 42.47 28.18 325 [35]
178 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 42.32 73.50 1 [1]
179 [13] Pacelli # 4-A 7-4 42.22 34.28 258 [7]
180 [32] Eastside # 4-Div A-AAAA 7-5 42.03 39.41 207 [40]
181 [52] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 4-6 41.91 45.56 131 [48]
182 [14] Tattnall Square # 7-Div A-A 10-2 41.88 23.26 377 [51]
183 [33] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 41.68 35.86 238 [49]
184 [12] Bowdon # 5-AA 8-3 41.57 29.08 320 [33]
185 [22] Jackson # 2-AAA 7-4 41.53 34.10 261 [29]
186 [23] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 41.47 32.75 279 [34]
187 [34] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 41.23 48.06 108 [17]
188 [53] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 41.08 40.35 196 [75]
189 [54] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 41.04 44.68 138 [52]
190 [13] Bacon County # 2-AA 6-5 40.39 35.40 246 [17]
191 [55] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 40.38 50.79 82 [21]
192 [35] Locust Grove # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 40.19 32.96 276 [60]
194 [24] Maynard Jackson # 4-Div A-AAA 7-4 39.87 35.97 236 [23]
193 [36] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 6-4 39.87 33.65 271 [59]
195 [14] Jefferson County # 3-AA 8-4 39.53 29.99 311 [30]
196 [15] Mount Zion (Carroll) # 6-Div A-A 8-4 39.49 27.61 330 [28]
197 [37] Lithonia # 6-AAAA 6-5 39.45 37.48 221 [44]
198 [16] Commerce ### 8-A 10-2 38.92 19.56 392 [56]
199 [15] Model # 7-AA 9-3 38.74 27.59 331 [37]
200 [38] Madison County 8-AAAA 5-5 38.70 38.58 214 [42]
201 [53] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 38.68 42.94 164 [59]
202 [56] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 5-5 38.63 39.61 205 [77]
203 [57] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-7 38.41 46.52 120 [45]
204 [25] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 4-6 38.23 41.26 183 [10]
205 [16] Wesleyan # 6-AA 6-5 38.08 34.60 255 [19]
206 [58] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 37.94 41.20 185 [71]
207 [39] Thomson # 3-AAAA 4-7 37.76 42.49 168 [33]
208 [26] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 37.74 36.77 228 [21]
210 [40] Howard 2-AAAA 3-6-1 37.69 43.08 162 [32]
209 [17] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 5-5 37.69 39.83 203 [11]
211 [18] Bleckley County # 4-AA 5-6 37.64 40.56 191 [9]
212 [19] Darlington # 7-AA 9-2 37.62 23.24 378 [47]
213 [17] Clinch County # 2-A 6-5 37.40 34.05 262 [9]
214 [20] Early County 1-AA 3-6-1 37.39 41.83 177 [6]
215 [21] Berrien # 1-AA 4-7 37.29 48.24 106 [2]
216 [22] Heard County # 5-AA 7-6 36.98 33.75 269 [23]
217 [18] Emanuel County Institute # 3-Div B-A 8-3 36.51 23.79 371 [45]
218 [19] Prince Avenue Christian # 8-A 9-3 36.04 17.84 399 [62]
219 [59] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-7 36.03 49.97 87 [25]
220 [41] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 36.00 35.77 240 [51]
221 [23] Union County # 8-AA 9-2 35.78 19.99 391 [52]
222 [24] Coosa # 7-AA 8-4 35.68 27.30 333 [39]
223 [60] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.59 42.71 166 [65]
224 [61] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 3-7 35.38 43.71 153 [60]
225 [42] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 4-6 35.37 40.40 193 [37]
226 [62] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 35.29 43.69 154 [61]
227 [54] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 2-8 35.26 60.37 37 [37]
228 [25] Screven County # 3-AA 10-2 35.20 24.59 363 [45]
229 [63] Loganville 8-AAAAA 4-6 35.13 40.65 190 [74]
230 [64] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-9 35.01 57.05 50 [4]
231 [20] Stratford Academy # 7-Div A-A 6-5 34.92 29.95 313 [23]
232 [26] Washington-Wilkes # 8-AA 7-5 34.88 29.43 317 [31]
233 [65] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 34.83 49.87 89 [27]
234 [43] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 34.83 49.02 101 [15]
235 [44] Southeast Whitfield # 7-AAAA 6-5 34.80 31.78 292 [62]
236 [27] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 34.39 30.76 301 [46]
237 [28] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 34.34 41.52 179 [7]
238 [21] Claxton # 3-Div A-A 7-4 34.34 30.24 306 [17]
239 [22] Pinecrest Academy # 6-Div B-A 7-4 34.30 30.18 307 [19]
240 [45] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 33.95 30.41 304 [63]
241 [23] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 6-4 33.84 24.51 364 [42]
242 [46] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 5-5 33.81 34.94 250 [55]
243 [27] Dublin # 3-AA 6-5 33.72 29.42 318 [32]
244 [24] Lincoln County # 7-Div B-A 7-4 33.50 26.82 339 [31]
245 [25] Greenville # 4-A 5-6 33.10 36.78 227 [2]
246 [26] Schley County 4-A 6-4 33.00 28.45 323 [27]
247 [47] Liberty County # 3-AAAA 4-7 32.92 40.16 200 [39]
248 [66] Shaw 1-AAAAA 4-6 32.88 36.49 232 [82]
249 [29] East Hall # 7-AAA 6-5 32.73 31.87 291 [41]
250 [28] Seminole County 1-AA 4-6 32.54 36.57 231 [16]
251 [27] St. Francis # 6-Div B-A 7-4 32.44 23.29 376 [50]
252 [28] Atkinson County # 2-A 6-5 32.39 30.17 308 [20]
253 [30] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 32.22 31.43 297 [43]
254 [29] Pelham 1-AA 4-6 32.18 38.86 213 [14]
255 [67] Northside (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 4-7 32.13 39.01 211 [80]
256 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 3-7 32.08 43.76 151 [56]
257 [48] Perry 2-AAAA 1-9 32.00 51.26 78 [8]
258 [29] Athens Christian # 8-A 7-4 31.90 17.85 398 [61]
259 [30] Swainsboro # 3-AA 5-6 31.80 33.92 264 [21]
260 [31] Central (Macon) # 2-AAA 5-6 31.65 32.29 286 [37]
261 [32] Sonoraville # 6-AAA 6-5 31.63 26.66 343 [55]
262 [68] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-8 31.44 44.68 139 [53]
263 [33] Jackson County 8-AAA 2-8 31.21 44.83 136 [4]
264 [34] Westside (Augusta) # 3-AAA 4-6-1 31.02 35.50 245 [26]
265 [49] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-6 31.01 36.96 226 [47]
266 [30] First Presbyterian # 7-Div A-A 7-4 30.81 26.01 347 [34]
267 [69] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 30.56 43.10 161 [63]
268 [50] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 30.34 35.58 242 [53]
269 [31] Christian Heritage # 6-Div A-A 5-6 29.97 34.10 260 [8]
270 [35] Lumpkin County # 7-AAA 5-6 29.62 31.39 298 [44]
271 [31] Monticello # 4-AA 4-7 29.59 32.61 282 [26]
272 [32] Bryan County # 2-AA 5-6 29.54 34.15 259 [20]
273 [36] Cedartown # 5-AAA 3-8 29.43 41.42 181 [9]
274 [51] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 29.40 40.36 195 [38]
275 [32] Brookstone 4-A 4-6 28.85 36.15 234 [3]
276 [56] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 3-7 28.82 45.80 129 [52]
277 [70] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 28.43 42.76 165 [64]
278 [33] Telfair County 2-A 6-4 28.17 26.01 348 [35]
279 [34] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 5-5 28.09 23.01 380 [52]
280 [71] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 28.02 50.89 81 [20]
281 [72] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 27.26 42.23 171 [67]
282 [33] Bremen # 5-AA 6-5 27.05 26.67 342 [41]
283 [52] North Hall 8-AAAA 2-8 26.91 50.37 84 [11]
284 [73] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 1-9 26.26 44.10 148 [58]
285 [37] Kendrick 2-AAA 5-5 26.20 27.89 327 [49]
286 [38] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 26.08 28.97 321 [48]
287 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-8 26.02 49.08 99 [51]
288 [35] Calhoun County # 1-A 8-4 25.85 19.05 395 [59]
289 [39] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 25.68 37.51 220 [18]
290 [34] Groves 2-AA 6-4 25.68 18.24 397 [53]
291 [35] Metter 3-AA 4-6 25.56 27.91 326 [36]
292 [40] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 25.53 40.02 201 [14]
293 [36] Wilcox County 2-A 3-7 25.33 35.53 244 [5]
294 [74] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 25.05 34.70 254 [85]
295 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-9 24.68 45.94 126 [23]
296 [75] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-10 24.60 57.98 44 [2]
297 [37] Jenkins County # 3-Div A-A 7-4 24.41 19.37 393 [57]
298 [41] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 24.32 23.75 372 [65]
299 [36] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 24.28 39.56 206 [12]
300 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 24.12 35.59 241 [52]
301 [37] Greene County # 8-AA 5-6 24.02 25.27 357 [43]
302 [38] Hapeville 6-AA 4-6 23.96 32.38 284 [27]
303 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-7 23.94 38.11 218 [63]
304 [59] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 1-9 23.61 44.19 146 [55]
305 [42] North Murray 6-AAA 5-5 23.50 20.53 388 [68]
306 [38] Turner County 2-A 4-6 23.30 29.35 319 [26]
307 [39] Trion 6-Div A-A 5-5 23.19 23.34 375 [49]
308 [55] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-7 23.16 32.61 281 [61]
309 [76] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-10 23.13 45.55 132 [49]
310 [43] Franklin County # 7-AAA 4-7 22.87 33.33 274 [32]
311 [44] Pepperell 5-AAA 3-7 22.83 33.22 275 [33]
312 [77] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 22.52 58.55 41 [1]
313 [40] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 22.13 29.97 312 [22]
314 [78] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 21.95 49.40 94 [32]
315 [79] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 21.84 51.38 77 [19]
316 [45] Dawson County 7-AAA 2-8 21.69 31.65 293 [42]
317 [46] Rockmart # 5-AAA 3-8 21.66 34.90 251 [28]
318 [60] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 21.54 42.13 174 [61]
319 [47] Rutland 2-AAA 3-7 21.32 31.22 299 [45]
320 [41] Mitchell County # 1-A 6-5 21.29 18.45 396 [60]
321 [80] Columbus 1-AAAAA 3-7 21.28 34.82 252 [84]
322 [48] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 21.23 26.75 340 [54]
323 [42] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 4-6 20.92 23.79 370 [46]
324 [43] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 4-6 20.67 25.39 353 [38]
326 [40] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-6 20.54 27.09 334 [40]
325 [39] Chattooga # 7-AA 4-7 20.54 25.44 352 [42]
327 [81] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 20.30 41.37 182 [70]
328 [41] Northeast 4-AA 3-7 20.18 30.78 300 [28]
329 [44] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 4-6 20.12 26.55 344 [33]
330 [49] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 19.70 33.42 273 [31]
331 [45] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 19.52 25.35 356 [40]
332 [42] Chattahoochee County # 5-AA 6-5 19.36 16.54 404 [54]
333 [61] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 2-7 19.22 33.81 267 [64]
334 [50] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 19.05 27.63 328 [50]
335 [62] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-9 18.67 44.69 137 [54]
336 [56] Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-9 18.47 43.27 160 [31]
337 [46] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 18.13 23.58 373 [47]
338 [51] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 18.03 32.42 283 [35]
339 [52] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 17.88 25.47 351 [58]
340 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-10 17.52 54.12 67 [49]
341 [57] Redan 6-AAAA 2-8 17.17 38.38 216 [43]
342 [82] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 17.14 46.54 119 [44]
343 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 17.04 29.45 316 [65]
344 [53] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 16.94 24.15 369 [64]
345 [54] Hephzibah # 3-AAA 6-5 16.86 16.66 403 [70]
346 [43] Long County 2-AA 3-7 16.83 28.53 322 [34]
347 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 16.82 35.85 239 [50]
348 [83] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 16.48 44.17 147 [57]
349 [47] Portal 3-Div A-A 3-7 16.45 26.99 335 [29]
350 [48] George Walton Academy 8-A 5-5 16.05 17.17 400 [64]
351 [60] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-9 15.83 40.42 192 [36]
352 [44] Manchester 5-AA 3-7 14.37 24.20 367 [46]
353 [49] Walker 6-Div A-A 2-8 14.25 30.24 305 [18]
354 [61] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 14.24 30.09 309 [64]
355 [50] Taylor County 4-A 1-8-1 14.06 32.62 280 [12]
356 [45] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 3-7 13.89 20.96 386 [51]
357 [55] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 13.79 39.94 202 [15]
358 [62] LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-8 13.42 33.83 265 [57]
359 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 1-8 13.26 34.43 256 [56]
360 [51] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 4-6 13.14 24.22 366 [43]
361 [52] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 5-5 12.86 10.09 410 [69]
362 [53] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 3-7 12.61 26.87 336 [30]
363 [56] Spencer 2-AAA 1-9 12.58 35.15 248 [27]
364 [46] Dade County 7-AA 2-8 12.45 27.56 332 [38]
365 [54] King’s Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 11.91 29.51 315 [25]
366 [57] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 11.79 26.27 345 [56]
367 [58] Butler 3-AAA 3-6 11.71 20.46 389 [69]
368 [55] Athens Academy 8-A 4-5 11.52 11.25 409 [68]
369 [47] Gordon Lee 7-AA 3-7 11.07 21.57 384 [49]
370 [56] Terrell County 1-A 3-6 10.96 22.28 381 [53]
371 [57] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 3-7 10.42 23.42 374 [48]
372 [48] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 10.14 34.72 253 [18]
373 [59] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-8 9.48 30.42 303 [47]
374 [49] Putnam County 4-AA 2-8 8.72 30.43 302 [29]
375 [58] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-8 8.15 32.14 289 [13]
376 [50] East Laurens 3-AA 2-7-1 7.86 21.04 385 [50]
377 [60] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 7.81 22.20 382 [67]
378 [59] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 6.92 29.78 314 [24]
379 [61] Josey 3-AAA 2-8 6.62 24.34 365 [63]
380 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-10 6.16 39.39 208 [78]
381 [62] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 1-9 5.41 38.53 215 [16]
382 [51] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-10 4.91 39.21 209 [13]
383 [52] Crawford County 4-AA† 6-4 4.79 -1.15 417 [57]
384 [60] Miller County 1-A 2-8 4.37 25.36 355 [39]
385 [63] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 4.23 35.95 237 [24]
386 [61] Lakeview Academy 8-A 3-7 4.18 17.00 401 [64]
387 [64] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 3-7 3.91 24.77 361 [61]
388 [62] Randolph-Clay 1-A 3-7 3.79 13.21 408 [67]
389 [65] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 3.27 32.32 285 [36]
390 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-9 3.24 62.49 31 [31]
391 [63] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 1-9 2.04 25.02 359 [41]
392 [53] Harlem 3-AA 2-8 2.01 24.81 360 [44]
393 [64] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 1-9 1.95 24.16 368 [44]
394 [65] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-8 1.81 19.10 394 [58]
395 [66] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 2-8 1.01 25.16 358 [60]
396 [67] Murray County 6-AAA 2-8 0.11 26.84 337 [53]
397 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-9 -1.05 39.00 212 [41]
398 [66] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 5-5 -1.29 -0.90 416 [73]
399 [68] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -3.06 26.11 346 [57]
400 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-8 -3.69 33.63 272 [24]
401 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -4.84 45.95 125 [22]
402 [55] Temple 5-AA 2-8 -5.63 16.51 405 [55]
403 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 1-9 -5.92 21.65 383 [48]
404 [67] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -5.98 16.78 402 [65]
405 [68] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-9 -6.07 20.77 387 [54]
406 [69] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-8 -9.29 10.05 411 [70]
407 [66] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 2-8 -11.29 8.22 412 [67]
408 [69] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -11.50 25.38 354 [59]
409 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-10 -12.16 28.26 324 [66]
410 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 0-10 -12.28 16.35 407 [56]
411 [70] Baconton 1-A 1-9 -13.46 16.50 406 [66]
412 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -16.69 2.12 414 [72]
413 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 1-4 -21.44 -0.68 415 [68]
414 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -22.14 8.11 413 [71]
415 [70] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-10 -22.77 24.62 362 [62]
416 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -23.91 20.36 390 [55]
417 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-10 -25.13 35.24 247 [83]
†-Plays non-region schedule

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 97.55 80.02
2 8 – AAAAAA 87.95 68.37
3 7 – AAAAAA 83.61 63.50
4 5 – AAAAAA 81.05 63.33
5 4 – AAAAAA 80.88 65.26
6 2 – AAAAAA 80.03 55.85
7 5 – AAAA 75.93 59.55
8 3 – AAAAAA 74.69 54.37
9 5 – AAAAA 74.54 56.44
10 2 – AAAAA 71.24 51.36
11 8 – AAA 70.33 46.63
12 3 – AAAAA 69.15 47.53
13 8 – AAAA 67.30 43.03
14 6 – AAAAA 67.15 48.47
6 – Div B – AAAAA 75.48 56.55
6 – Div A – AAAAA 58.50 43.11
15 2 – AAAA 64.49 47.90
16 6 – AAAA 64.14 40.68
17 6 – AA 64.11 37.85
18 2 – AA 62.93 31.39
19 4 – AAAAA 62.61 44.77
4 – Div B – AAAAA 64.43 46.67
4 – Div A – AAAAA 61.10 42.78
20 7 – AAAAA 62.59 43.86
7 – Div A – AAAAA 62.84 43.95
7 – Div B – AAAAA 62.34 43.77
21 4 – AAA 62.44 33.24
4 – Div B – AAA 76.51 40.29
4 – Div A – AAA 49.51 28.28
22 1 – AA 62.29 44.05
23 8 – AAAAA 60.09 41.68
24 6 – AAAAAA 59.56 39.85
25 7 – AAAA 59.49 38.71
26 1 – AAAA 57.64 39.75
1 – Div A – AAAA 58.91 40.60
1 – Div B – AAAA 56.38 38.92
27 1 – AAAAA 57.32 36.25
28 4 – A 55.28 35.54
29 3 – AAA 55.14 23.24
30 6 – AAA 54.64 21.31
31 1 – AAA 54.48 30.37
1 – Div A – AAA 62.39 43.66
1 – Div B – AAA 36.95 14.12
32 5 – AAA 53.58 29.87
33 3 – AAAA 53.09 37.40
34 2 – AAA 52.91 30.15
35 4 – AAAA 51.51 33.07
4 – Div B – AAAA 53.36 32.13
4 – Div A – AAAA 50.17 33.94
36 5 – A 50.80 29.32
37 2 – A 50.31 31.74
38 4 – AA 49.52 32.81
39 6 – A 48.10 29.55
6 – Div A – A 52.22 32.43
6 – Div B – A 45.17 27.46
40 3 – A 46.68 24.84
3 – Div A – A 53.92 33.03
3 – Div B – A 35.04 13.62
41 7 – AAA 44.00 27.86
42 3 – AA 43.51 26.37
43 7 – A 42.54 24.20
7 – Div A – A 43.11 25.59
7 – Div B – A 41.69 22.18
44 5 – AA 42.15 23.27
45 8 – AA 42.04 21.28
46 7 – AA 41.60 22.14
47 8 – A 36.18 14.41
48 1 – A 24.73 9.19

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/26 Stockbridge Luella 6 – 7 27.43 94.0% 0.132
10/10 Mount Pisgah Christian Fellowship Christian 28 – 33 24.93 92.4% 0.137
08/29 Macon County Americus-Sumter 23 – 28 21.33 89.4% 0.175
09/05 Cook Berrien 14 – 21 20.51 88.6% 0.176
09/26 Pickens Ridgeland 28 – 35 19.07 87.1% 0.194
09/26 Central (Macon) Spencer 21 – 27 18.23 86.1% 0.209
08/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 – 8 19.60 87.7% 0.216
08/23 Mount Pisgah Christian Brookstone 34 – 42 17.00 84.6% 0.217
09/26 Westside (Augusta) Butler 27 – 29 18.47 86.4% 0.225
08/22 Fayette County McIntosh 25 – 28 17.57 85.3% 0.232
08/22 Archer Sandy Creek 13 – 21 15.89 83.1% 0.233
10/23 Cairo Monroe 14 – 21 15.84 83.0% 0.238
09/05 Westlake Shiloh 7 – 14 15.37 82.3% 0.245
10/03 Walton Pope 36 – 44 14.62 81.2% 0.253
10/03 Roswell Wheeler 14 – 28 12.46 77.7% 0.267

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.23 11/21 Colquitt County Dacula 51 – 30 18.19 86.0%
86.76 09/05 Buford McEachern 27 – 20 11.01 75.0%
86.57 09/12 Archer Grayson 10 – 14 1.11 52.8%
86.16 12/05 Colquitt County McEachern 19.15 87.2%
86.00 10/31 Archer Dacula 24 – 10 2.09 55.2%
85.98 10/24 Grayson Dacula 17 – 27 0.14 50.3%
84.84 11/28 Colquitt County Milton 42 – 35 20.32 88.4%
84.21 11/21 Grayson Tucker 23 – 26 3.18 57.9%
83.45 11/28 McEachern Tucker 62 – 36 1.24 53.1%
83.20 11/14 Grayson Mill Creek 24 – 6 4.63 61.4%
82.91 11/21 Archer Lee County 56 – 13 6.45 65.6%
82.91 09/05 Dacula Mill Creek 28 – 21 3.65 59.0%
82.72 08/23 Colquitt County Mill Creek 31 – 14 21.84 89.9%
82.35 10/10 Colquitt County Lee County 58 – 14 22.55 90.5%
81.46 12/05 Blessed Trinity Washington County 4.93 62.1%

View Comments 0