Maxwell Round 2 Playoff Projections

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a simulation of the 2014 playoff brackets.  The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the playoff brackets.


Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County R1 – 1 1 (11-0) 105.83 80.55 3.21 899,890 845,932 759,698 704,620 0.42
Lee County R1 – 3 3 (8-2) 85.22 82.05 1.38 559,467 433,479 318,005 64,770 14.44
Grayson R8 – 3 2 (10-1) 88.06 86.29 1.19 590,734 437,401 93,518 63,436 14.76
Archer R8 – 1 6 (8-3) 82.05 82.26 1.02 440,533 322,117 220,842 38,776 24.79
Tucker R2 – 1 5 (9-2) 83.61 86.71 0.76 409,266 278,317 47,490 28,406 34.20
Westlake R3 – 1 12 (9-1) 78.09 80.52 1.36 664,854 464,550 201,749 26,934 36.13
Dacula R8 – 2 4 (10-1) 84.65 88.13 0.22 100,110 63,884 33,185 20,294 48.28
McEachern R4 – 2 10 (8-3) 79.14 84.56 1.00 720,713 240,355 28,655 13,853 71.19
Milton R5 – 1 9 (10-1) 79.75 85.49 0.70 598,928 60,876 25,205 12,819 77.01
Hillgrove R4 – 1 17 (8-3) 74.10 81.24 0.96 666,634 189,192 95,268 9,441 104.93
Central Gwinnett R8 – 4 20 (7-4) 72.11 81.66 0.88 584,191 225,470 63,686 4,934 201.67
Etowah R5 – 2 21 (9-2) 72.02 82.70 0.58 335,146 187,588 55,164 4,415 225.48
Hughes R3 – 2 15 (9-2) 76.52 87.11 0.44 401,072 29,307 9,731 4,112 242.20
Newton R2 – 3 26 (6-3) 67.93 82.56 0.57 415,809 122,392 26,331 1,455 686.24
Roswell R5 – 3 25 (8-3) 67.95 83.76 0.41 333,366 55,212 18,955 1,049 952.03
Alpharetta R6 – 1 24 (10-1) 68.88 86.35 0.33 279,287 43,927 2,519 685 1,459.19

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
1-AAAAAA 769,390 0.30
8-AAAAAA 127,440 6.85
3-AAAAAA 31,046 31.21
2-AAAAAA 29,861 32.49
4-AAAAAA 23,294 41.93
5-AAAAAA 18,283 53.69
6-AAAAAA 685 1,459.19

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Allatoona R5 – 1 1 (11-0) 82.06 68.91 2.27 747,816 670,204 505,072 345,283 1.90
Ware County R3 – 1 2 (11-0) 80.52 69.78 2.01 702,452 567,595 467,194 277,365 2.61
Creekside R6 – 1 4 (9-2) 72.25 70.12 1.44 773,293 426,455 166,294 78,671 11.71
Northside (Warner Robins) R2 – 1 5 (10-1) 72.16 70.54 1.19 635,063 355,546 137,987 65,004 14.38
Mays R6 – 3 3 (9-2) 72.71 72.87 0.66 297,548 191,064 124,769 49,574 19.17
Coffee R3 – 2 6 (10-1) 71.97 72.37 0.58 252,184 187,792 96,501 43,699 21.88
Houston County R2 – 2 8 (9-2) 67.48 68.58 1.34 754,174 416,267 130,286 38,185 25.19
Kell R7 – 1 7 (11-0) 67.66 70.76 0.88 601,088 162,046 91,753 28,573 34.00
Stephenson R6 – 2 11 (8-3) 66.51 70.43 0.98 564,145 304,457 89,594 24,641 39.58
Dalton R7 – 2 9 (9-2) 67.40 73.25 0.58 364,937 158,445 44,779 15,911 61.85
Stockbridge R4 – 1 14 (9-2) 63.15 70.39 0.70 435,855 206,792 50,240 11,563 85.48
Jones County R2 – 3 13 (9-2) 64.34 72.64 0.52 398,912 79,296 35,955 8,420 117.76
Harris County R1 – 1 15 (9-2) 61.37 70.71 0.66 550,329 83,971 24,217 6,121 162.37
Gainesville R8 – 2 19 (9-2) 60.13 71.91 0.53 449,671 58,033 14,564 3,233 308.32
Glynn Academy R3 – 3 18 (8-3) 60.76 74.13 0.30 226,707 59,555 10,586 2,391 417.31
Sequoyah R7 – 4 26 (6-5) 57.05 72.32 0.33 245,826 72,484 10,208 1,366 731.24

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
5-AAAAA 345,283 1.90
3-AAAAA 323,454 2.09
6-AAAAA 152,887 5.54
2-AAAAA 111,610 7.96
7-AAAAA 45,850 20.81
4-AAAAA 11,563 85.48
1-AAAAA 6,121 162.37
8-AAAAA 3,233 308.32

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Buford R8 – 1 1 (11-0) 92.01 67.05 3.30 945,163 859,181 776,595 722,570 0.38
Woodward Academy R5 – 1 5 (9-2) 69.05 66.06 1.83 852,331 559,890 355,196 63,930 14.64
Cartersville R7 – 1 3 (10-1) 70.77 68.85 1.46 839,026 488,736 83,449 52,015 18.23
St. Pius X R6 – 1 7 (9-2) 66.35 63.34 1.93 914,667 636,353 325,706 48,738 19.52
Sandy Creek R5 – 2 4 (10-1) 70.42 69.80 1.38 827,641 438,755 69,323 41,425 23.14
Marist R6 – 2 2 (10-1) 71.00 73.79 0.72 577,861 76,467 40,085 24,493 39.83
Cairo R1 – 1 10 (9-2) 62.60 68.29 0.81 502,250 203,066 98,217 11,179 88.45
North Oconee R8 – 2 9 (8-3) 63.29 69.09 0.81 497,750 200,262 96,814 10,947 90.35
Griffin R4 – 1 6 (11-0) 67.08 73.81 0.50 422,139 44,065 19,749 10,593 93.40
West Laurens R2 – 1 12 (8-3) 59.75 65.11 0.94 612,065 235,001 84,019 7,667 129.42
Mary Persons R2 – 2 8 (9-2) 64.32 75.19 0.09 54,837 20,287 7,444 3,361 296.53
Stephens County R8 – 3 13 (8-3) 55.97 68.26 0.53 387,935 112,867 29,372 1,802 553.99
Burke County R3 – 2 18 (7-4) 52.30 71.20 0.19 147,669 36,782 9,156 418 2,390.10
Baldwin R2 – 3 15 (7-4) 55.04 74.50 0.20 160,974 36,171 1,676 418 2,391.22
Wayne County R3 – 1 17 (6-5) 53.95 72.98 0.21 172,359 36,338 1,679 412 2,424.22
Eastside R4 – 2 33 (7-4) 43.41 69.98 0.10 85,333 15,779 1,520 31 32,525.24

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
8-AAAA 735,319 0.36
5-AAAA 105,355 8.49
6-AAAA 73,231 12.66
7-AAAA 52,015 18.23
2-AAAA 11,446 86.36
1-AAAA 11,179 88.45
4-AAAA 10,624 93.13
3-AAAA 831 1,203.02

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Washington County R3 – 1 1 (11-0) 81.15 62.27 2.80 971,168 896,676 543,521 383,809 1.61
Calhoun R6 – 1 3 (11-0) 76.75 64.02 2.53 874,352 779,082 608,891 267,360 2.74
Blessed Trinity R4 – 1 2 (11-0) 79.06 69.31 2.01 911,976 600,646 297,335 197,636 4.06
Jefferson R8 – 1 4 (11-0) 74.42 68.71 1.42 839,969 359,815 140,804 79,621 11.56
Westminster (Atlanta) R4 – 3 5 (10-1) 66.96 70.02 1.08 594,355 340,458 123,089 27,001 36.04
Hart County R8 – 2 6 (10-1) 64.71 69.98 0.95 565,619 279,464 90,086 16,645 59.08
Central (Carrollton) R5 – 1 8 (11-0) 62.36 70.08 0.67 405,645 198,544 58,038 9,461 104.69
Cook R1 – 1 9 (9-2) 61.29 70.14 0.67 434,381 181,534 49,806 7,444 133.34
Pierce County R1 – 2 10 (9-2) 58.70 65.10 0.91 804,711 87,545 12,595 2,946 338.48
Elbert County R8 – 3 14 (8-3) 57.35 67.67 0.69 569,791 91,462 29,364 2,938 339.33
Cedar Grove R4 – 2 12 (9-2) 58.13 69.39 0.22 125,648 70,410 24,542 2,636 378.37
Appling County R1 – 4 16 (8-3) 55.32 68.85 0.51 430,209 59,046 16,184 1,354 737.50
Dodge County R1 – 3 11 (9-2) 58.62 75.81 0.19 160,031 23,141 3,091 704 1,418.57
Adairsville R6 – 2 15 (10-1) 56.46 75.87 0.11 88,024 16,398 1,898 379 2,636.57
Callaway R5 – 2 18 (7-4) 46.76 71.76 0.04 28,832 8,522 437 40 24,764.74
Oconee County R8 – 4 19 (8-3) 45.32 71.50 0.20 195,289 7,257 320 25 40,213.77

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
3-AAA 383,809 1.61
6-AAA 267,739 2.73
4-AAA 227,273 3.40
8-AAA 99,229 9.08
1-AAA 12,448 79.34
5-AAA 9,502 104.24

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Vidalia R2 – 1 1 (11-0) 76.63 56.77 2.33 985,685 577,558 435,864 327,714 2.05
Benedictine R2 – 2 3 (9-2) 70.32 58.28 2.42 944,486 714,473 539,909 221,888 3.51
Greater Atlanta Christian R6 – 1 2 (11-0) 74.21 63.10 1.86 933,454 417,770 296,247 209,270 3.78
Fitzgerald R1 – 1 4 (10-1) 66.95 53.97 2.24 951,478 878,028 262,816 144,143 5.94
Brooks County R1 – 2 5 (8-3) 61.08 50.72 2.14 937,789 829,917 300,639 67,287 13.86
Lovett R6 – 2 6 (8-3) 60.52 64.17 0.91 601,328 183,850 101,603 21,807 44.86
Macon County R4 – 1 8 (9-2) 55.63 64.42 0.54 398,672 92,928 42,778 6,654 149.29
Screven County R3 – 1 13 (10-1) 41.90 57.50 0.87 730,074 125,122 11,526 537 1,859.56
Jefferson County R3 – 2 11 (8-3) 44.29 61.89 0.69 616,803 71,441 2,917 349 2,865.97
Lamar County R4 – 2 9 (8-2-1) 48.58 70.47 0.07 66,546 4,233 816 138 7,240.80
Rabun County R8 – 1 15 (9-2) 41.20 65.14 0.07 55,514 8,749 1,738 76 13,166.04
Pace Academy R6 – 4 18 (6-5) 40.31 63.48 0.42 383,197 32,094 896 72 13,907.57
Model R7 – 3 19 (9-2) 37.97 66.32 0.07 48,522 18,437 411 27 37,255.84
Washington-Wilkes R8 – 4 29 (7-4) 34.73 62.43 0.09 62,211 23,037 985 22 46,145.31
Heard County R5 – 2 31 (6-5) 32.73 60.76 0.29 269,926 21,924 821 15 66,797.58
Coosa R7 – 2 27 (8-3) 35.09 70.47 0.01 14,315 439 32 2 579,821.66

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
2-AA 549,601 0.82
6-AA 231,149 3.33
1-AA 211,430 3.73
4-AA 6,792 146.24
3-AA 886 1,127.32
8-AA 98 10,243.07
7-AA 29 35,006.42
5-AA 15 66,797.58

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class A – Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Marion County R4 – 1 1 (10-0) 61.13 45.03 2.70 933,205 844,586 546,318 373,591 1.68
Irwin County R2 – 2 3 (8-1-1) 58.53 43.25 2.58 897,799 740,451 630,161 312,633 2.20
Hawkinsville R4 – 4 4 (9-1) 57.67 46.41 2.11 965,974 652,689 306,631 180,181 4.55
Charlton County R2 – 5 6 (9-1) 52.64 50.41 1.39 877,611 332,308 121,260 58,118 16.21
Clinch County R2 – 11 13 (6-4) 45.05 41.36 1.77 823,174 706,002 197,401 39,853 24.09
Dooly County R4 – 10 11 (7-3) 46.03 48.41 1.01 692,323 180,849 115,076 25,017 38.97
Emanuel County Institute R3 – 9 15 (8-2) 41.16 50.69 0.72 610,639 90,273 16,665 4,268 233.29
Claxton R3 – 7 18 (7-3) 37.14 50.24 0.37 307,677 43,125 19,067 2,039 489.54
Atkinson County R2 – 15 17 (6-4) 37.58 51.55 0.15 102,201 35,575 15,079 1,661 601.17
Mount Zion (Carroll) R6 – 8 20 (7-3) 35.88 51.05 0.43 389,361 38,783 4,654 832 1,200.62
Greenville R4 – 16 21 (5-5) 35.54 52.99 0.10 66,795 26,358 3,059 501 1,993.32
Calhoun County R1 – 14 34 (7-3) 28.59 45.91 0.69 561,684 116,963 9,474 468 2,133.96
Commerce R8 – 6 33 (8-2) 28.89 47.80 0.28 176,826 96,444 8,504 438 2,282.54
Mitchell County R1 – 3 38 (6-4) 25.33 45.69 0.52 438,316 80,591 5,238 209 4,786.87
Lincoln County R7 – 12 23 (7-3) 33.72 55.71 0.14 122,389 12,199 1,271 183 5,472.94
Jenkins County R3 – 13 39 (7-3) 24.99 55.96 0.04 34,026 2,804 143 10 98,969.09

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
4-A 579,289 0.73
2-A 412,264 1.43
3-A 6,317 157.30
6-A 832 1,200.62
1-A 677 1,475.55
8-A 438 2,282.54
7-A 183 5,472.94

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


Class A – Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rank Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Mount Paran Christian R6 – 3 2 (10-0) 60.98 44.71 2.69 934,441 741,624 593,243 421,355 1.37
Calvary Day R3 – 1 5 (10-0) 55.68 41.52 2.55 946,242 723,662 579,461 298,273 2.35
Aquinas R7 – 2 7 (10-0) 49.40 43.56 1.87 883,191 664,891 221,065 101,734 8.83
Eagle’s Landing Christian R5 – 5 12 (4-6) 45.62 41.79 1.87 869,892 698,151 233,543 65,142 14.35
Savannah Christian R3 – 6 8 (9-1) 49.37 49.75 0.87 587,345 154,733 88,474 39,866 24.08
Landmark Christian R5 – 8 10 (8-2) 46.10 47.84 0.94 617,275 181,890 107,527 30,403 31.89
Pacelli R4 – 11 9 (7-3) 46.62 50.58 0.57 412,655 90,434 45,097 17,326 56.72
Tattnall Square R7 – 7 16 (9-1) 41.03 47.45 0.99 699,517 239,271 40,791 11,350 87.11
Mount Pisgah Christian R6 – 9 14 (7-3) 42.10 48.87 0.52 382,725 86,445 43,437 9,365 105.78
First Presbyterian R7 – 13 24 (7-3) 33.55 45.82 0.78 595,078 161,040 21,597 2,373 420.34
Pinecrest Academy R6 – 10 25 (7-3) 33.36 49.82 0.37 300,483 62,794 5,758 901 1,109.25
Prince Avenue Christian R8 – 4 32 (8-2) 28.92 46.22 0.50 404,922 88,922 8,595 666 1,500.71
Stratford Academy R7 – 14 22 (6-4) 35.19 52.22 0.08 65,559 13,209 3,397 608 1,643.10
Athens Christian R8 – 12 37 (7-3) 27.40 46.91 0.19 130,108 51,887 4,123 266 3,756.60
St. Francis R6 – 15 31 (7-3) 29.95 51.29 0.15 116,809 33,044 2,175 257 3,892.02
Christian Heritage R6 – 16 36 (5-5) 27.78 50.06 0.06 53,758 8,003 1,717 114 8,747.17

 

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Region Champion Odds
6-A 431,992 1.31
3-A 338,140 1.96
7-A 116,065 7.62
5-A 95,545 9.47
4-A 17,326 56.72
8-A 932 1,071.92

 

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket assumes every favorite wins.


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