Maxwell week nine playoff projections

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.


Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 108.45 852,916 784,546 0.27
Grayson 8-AAAAAA 88.97 255,170 55,623 16.98
McEachern 4-AAAAAA 83.58 169,478 29,930 32.41
Lee County 1-AAAAAA 84.57 157,135 25,131 38.79
North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 84.12 61,791 19,960 49.10
Milton 5-AAAAAA 82.40 82,242 18,645 52.63
Norcross 7-AAAAAA 83.25 120,309 18,149 54.10
Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 81.02 64,557 9,076 109.18
Dacula 8-AAAAAA 81.73 33,618 7,784 127.47
Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 82.01 37,828 7,497 132.39
Tucker 2-AAAAAA 80.16 22,446 5,993 165.86
Hughes 3-AAAAAA 77.24 51,570 5,394 184.39
Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 76.33 34,671 5,367 185.32
Archer 8-AAAAAA 76.10 6,252 1,392 717.39
Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 73.11 6,130 1,355 737.01
Roswell 5-AAAAAA 70.28 9,488 821 1,217.03
North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 72.08 4,258 646 1,546.99
Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 73.41 6,965 636 1,571.33
Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 74.99 4,109 488 2,048.18
Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 74.24 3,359 429 2,330.00
Tift County 1-AAAAAA 74.47 1,349 290 3,447.28
Etowah 5-AAAAAA 68.43 4,298 225 4,443.44
Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 72.38 1,969 187 5,346.59
Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 70.23 2,815 154 6,492.51
Westlake 3-AAAAAA 66.52 2,294 139 7,193.24

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Allatoona 5-AAAAA 82.99 512,673 395,293 1.53
Ware County 3-AAAAA 76.32 385,387 200,431 3.99
Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 69.00 141,604 62,430 15.02
South Paulding 5-AAAAA 70.62 121,631 48,591 19.58
Dalton 7-AAAAA 67.84 107,967 39,655 24.22
Coffee 3-AAAAA 69.49 78,896 37,522 25.65
Lanier 8-AAAAA 67.10 108,051 35,357 27.28
Gainesville 8-AAAAA 67.34 75,175 31,139 31.11
Creekside 6-AAAAA 70.44 62,597 29,100 33.36
Drew 4-AAAAA 64.72 60,276 17,769 55.28
Alexander 5-AAAAA 66.25 46,658 15,665 62.84
Houston County 2-AAAAA 64.05 52,932 15,658 62.87
Mays 6-AAAAA 68.29 39,188 15,267 64.50
Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 65.05 42,518 14,184 69.50
Kell 7-AAAAA 63.67 40,927 11,870 83.25
New Manchester 5-AAAAA 63.39 18,087 5,383 184.77
East Paulding 5-AAAAA 63.83 16,669 5,053 196.90
Stephenson 6-AAAAA 62.16 19,340 5,023 198.08
Harris County 1-AAAAA 61.18 18,443 4,537 219.41
Carver (Atlanta) 6-AAAAA 61.26 14,403 3,748 265.81
Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 57.80 9,407 1,703 586.20
Sprayberry 7-AAAAA 56.85 6,613 1,188 840.75
Stockbridge 4-AAAAA 56.69 5,050 957 1,043.93
Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 55.72 4,125 797 1,253.71
Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 56.39 2,703 469 2,131.20
Brunswick 3-AAAAA 54.42 2,653 330 3,029.30
Jones County 2-AAAAA 55.53 1,771 302 3,310.26
Hiram 5-AAAAA 58.88 833 171 5,846.95
Salem 8-AAAAA 51.31 989 130 7,691.31
Southwest DeKalb 6-AAAAA 54.26 908 123 8,129.08

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8-AAAA 92.79 782,364 673,382 0.49
Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 80.18 516,275 185,186 4.40
Griffin 4-AAAA 73.31 77,279 32,367 29.90
Cairo 1-AAAA 70.37 171,269 30,151 32.17
Cartersville 7-AAAA 70.48 70,002 27,471 35.40
Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 68.28 103,086 19,098 51.36
St. Pius X 6-AAAA 65.29 139,148 16,245 60.56
Mary Persons 2-AAAA 64.58 76,966 8,708 113.84
Marist 6-AAAA 67.24 13,105 4,238 234.96
North Oconee 8-AAAA 56.14 11,776 664 1,505.02
Thomas County Central 1-AAAA 60.99 3,396 499 2,003.01
West Laurens 2-AAAA 55.80 6,287 417 2,397.08
Worth County 1-AAAA 55.07 3,798 275 3,635.36
Columbia 6-AAAA 57.49 1,715 272 3,675.47
Gilmer 7-AAAA 52.89 6,493 252 3,967.25
Burke County 3-AAAA 54.11 2,610 231 4,328.00
Troup 5-AAAA 57.05 3,281 201 4,974.12

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Washington County 3-AAA 80.43 522,464 359,581 1.78
Calhoun 6-AAA 76.87 498,046 239,843 3.17
Blessed Trinity 4-AAA 77.38 312,231 191,199 4.23
Jefferson 8-AAA 72.01 164,846 71,701 12.95
Peach County 2-AAA 70.57 158,839 56,955 16.56
Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 68.48 103,886 33,161 29.16
Hart County 8-AAA 63.11 93,198 19,092 51.38
Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 61.44 78,028 14,111 69.87
Westminster (Atlanta) 4-AAA 64.97 35,726 10,871 90.99
Cedar Grove 4-AAA 55.87 8,998 1,099 908.92
Adairsville 6-AAA 56.71 4,963 868 1,151.07
Elbert County 8-AAA 53.47 5,166 562 1,778.36
Dodge County 1-AAA 50.21 3,797 312 3,204.13
Cook 1-AAA 49.32 4,146 273 3,662.00
Callaway 5-AAA 46.13 1,535 103 9,707.74

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Vidalia 2-AA 67.14 412,067 264,481 2.78
Fitzgerald 1-AA 63.67 447,165 224,297 3.46
Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 65.95 348,932 214,101 3.67
Thomasville 1-AA 59.04 264,473 115,315 7.67
Lovett 6-AA 60.81 227,987 97,401 9.27
Benedictine 2-AA 58.46 122,622 45,244 21.10
Brooks County 1-AA 55.26 65,573 19,862 49.35
Lamar County 4-AA 51.64 29,890 7,392 134.28
Macon County 4-AA 49.62 18,005 3,944 252.55
Screven County 3-AA 44.66 25,385 3,472 287.02
Bowdon 5-AA 44.65 14,400 2,278 437.98
Darlington 7-AA 41.54 6,438 727 1,374.52
Jefferson County 3-AA 39.68 3,196 341 2,931.55
Bleckley County 4-AA 39.99 2,492 252 3,967.25
Rabun County 8-AA 38.77 2,533 235 4,254.32
Berrien 1-AA 41.91 1,500 194 5,153.64

Class A-Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
A-Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Marion County 4-A 54.21 561,110 331,553 2.02
Irwin County 2-A 54.50 547,838 330,238 2.03
Hawkinsville 4-A 51.93 374,456 197,492 4.06
Charlton County 2-A 46.71 185,657 72,920 12.71
Clinch County 2-A 40.68 75,483 20,264 48.35
Emanuel County Institute 3-A 39.09 81,861 19,484 50.32
Dooly County 4-A 38.32 45,190 10,343 95.68
Greenville 4-A 36.35 33,617 6,584 150.88
Claxton 3-A 32.00 20,689 2,848 350.12
Calhoun County 1-A 29.65 18,132 1,980 504.05
Wilcox County 2-A 33.08 9,935 1,495 667.90
Telfair County 2-A 30.29 11,154 1,297 770.01
Schley County 4-A 29.88 8,164 963 1,037.42
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-A 29.06 8,879 922 1,083.60
Commerce 8-A 26.87 9,145 769 1,299.39
Lincoln County 7-A 30.51 3,606 422 2,368.67
Atkinson County 2-A 26.67 4,003 361 2,769.08

Class A-Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
A-Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Mount Paran Christian 6-A 51.51 490,712 339,851 1.94
Aquinas 7-A 46.91 345,708 183,704 4.44
Tattnall Square 7-A 45.35 247,331 120,623 7.29
Landmark Christian 5-A 44.88 240,994 117,265 7.53
Calvary Day 3-A 43.71 231,195 100,450 8.96
Pacelli 4-A 40.93 102,791 39,653 24.22
Savannah Christian 3-A 40.71 101,697 37,721 25.51
Mount Pisgah Christian 6-A 38.28 84,297 25,967 37.51
Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 33.31 28,066 6,183 160.73
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-A 36.39 21,373 6,034 164.73
Brookstone 4-A 35.16 21,964 5,660 175.68
Pinecrest Academy 6-A 32.94 25,677 5,535 179.67
Stratford Academy 7-A 34.96 20,800 5,357 185.67
First Presbyterian 7-A 31.70 11,489 2,298 434.16
Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 28.86 13,758 2,092 477.01
Athens Christian 8-A 26.09 6,761 828 1,206.73
St. Francis 6-A 27.98 5,118 759 1,316.52

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