Maxwell’s Week Seven Playoff Projections

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 1,000 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.


Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

AAAAAA
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 101.45 683,881 572,037 0.75
Grayson 8-AAAAAA 90.62 249,600 104,277 8.59
McEachern 4-AAAAAA 85.17 167,908 55,397 17.05
Norcross 7-AAAAAA 85.31 125,554 39,644 24.22
Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 85.44 114,350 36,334 26.52
Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 84.43 119,438 33,259 29.07
North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 84.95 73,746 30,092 32.23
Milton 5-AAAAAA 82.41 78,017 25,271 38.57
Hughes 3-AAAAAA 81.69 91,708 22,537 43.37
Dacula 8-AAAAAA 83.97 55,283 19,305 50.80
Tucker 2-AAAAAA 82.17 44,937 15,365 64.08
Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 78.98 54,267 13,809 71.42
Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 81.37 30,449 8,765 113.09
Camden County 1-AAAAAA 81.39 29,879 8,371 118.46
Archer 8-AAAAAA 78.84 15,545 4,505 220.98
Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 76.81 13,969 2,856 349.14
North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 74.85 12,897 2,650 376.36
Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 73.38 9,584 1,786 558.91
AAAAA
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Ware County 3-AAAAA 79.47 373,175 219,789 3.55
Creekside 6-AAAAA 79.79 343,469 212,253 3.71
Gainesville 8-AAAAA 76.95 285,934 150,371 5.65
Allatoona 5-AAAAA 78.98 253,473 146,193 5.84
Coffee 3-AAAAA 75.11 160,872 76,169 12.13
Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 72.97 130,239 55,280 17.09
Kell 7-AAAAA 71.08 95,087 36,402 26.47
Mays 6-AAAAA 72.39 46,137 18,947 51.78
Stephenson 6-AAAAA 68.55 60,710 18,775 52.26
Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 68.59 57,305 18,469 53.14
Dalton 7-AAAAA 67.80 55,720 17,166 57.25
South Paulding 5-AAAAA 67.70 34,202 10,442 94.77
Harris County 1-AAAAA 62.98 17,606 3,920 254.10
Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 63.20 16,181 3,517 283.33
Lanier 8-AAAAA 61.85 14,371 2,855 349.26
Brunswick 3-AAAAA 61.00 8,957 1,687 591.77
Jones County 2-AAAAA 60.06 8,291 1,440 693.44
East Paulding 5-AAAAA 63.76 5,949 1,332 749.75
AAAA
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8-AAAA 95.05 727,264 552,796 0.81
Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 88.19 648,018 303,112 2.30
Griffin 4-AAAA 80.40 136,214 55,442 17.04
Marist 6-AAAA 77.58 203,593 49,766 19.09
Cartersville 7-AAAA 71.25 66,717 16,054 61.29
Thomas County Central 1-AAAA 70.40 66,236 9,860 100.42
Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 66.86 31,963 3,788 262.99
Cairo 1-AAAA 65.87 22,276 2,449 407.33
St. Pius X 6-AAAA 63.12 16,143 1,366 731.06
Mary Persons 2-AAAA 62.47 15,039 1,190 839.34
AAA
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Washington County 3-AAA 82.18 609,282 419,955 1.38
Calhoun 6-AAA 79.05 577,354 309,987 2.23
Jefferson 8-AAA 71.53 189,482 80,136 11.48
Blessed Trinity 4-AAA 72.44 164,834 74,080 12.50
Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 68.48 119,731 38,472 24.99
Hart County 8-AAA 63.47 103,609 23,181 42.14
Peach County 2-AAA 65.71 70,417 19,767 49.59
Westminster (Atlanta) 4-AAA 66.02 57,824 17,938 54.75
Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 59.96 50,298 8,639 114.75
Cedar Grove 4-AAA 58.95 19,348 3,368 295.91
Adairsville 6-AAA 57.37 9,345 1,709 584.14
AA
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 70.90 523,965 366,677 1.73
Lovett 6-AA 65.77 360,030 176,350 4.67
Brooks County 1-AA 63.34 276,379 132,145 6.57
Benedictine 2-AA 65.09 244,066 126,795 6.89
Vidalia 2-AA 62.88 189,006 84,658 10.81
Thomasville 1-AA 56.89 159,209 50,233 18.91
Fitzgerald 1-AA 58.00 103,513 34,572 27.93
Lamar County 4-AA 56.62 54,255 16,087 61.16
Screven County 3-AA 48.10 27,973 4,536 219.46
Bowdon 5-AA 46.08 13,003 1,946 512.87
Jefferson County 3-AA 45.72 9,601 1,453 687.23
Darlington 7-AA 45.09 9,759 1,233 810.03
B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 45.31 9,230 1,147 870.84
A-Public
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Hawkinsville 4-A 54.06 501,805 324,722 2.08
Irwin County 2-A 52.41 476,208 268,490 2.72
Marion County 4-A 50.98 377,563 204,798 3.88
Dooly County 4-A 45.30 169,978 65,187 14.34
Charlton County 2-A 45.08 138,291 53,497 17.69
Emanuel County Institute 3-A 40.99 100,062 29,714 32.65
Clinch County 2-A 41.77 81,716 25,308 38.51
Greenville 4-A 37.85 41,824 10,058 98.42
Wilcox County 2-A 36.39 22,839 4,930 201.84
Claxton 3-A 34.00 23,325 4,243 234.68
Calhoun County 1-A 31.66 21,709 3,128 318.69
Commerce 8-A 31.60 18,635 2,735 364.63
A-Private
Team Region Rating Finals Champion Odds
Aquinas 7-A 51.31 438,801 292,574 2.42
Mount Paran Christian 6-A 48.75 337,266 194,919 4.13
Landmark Christian 5-A 46.36 258,294 126,099 6.93
Savannah Christian 3-A 45.70 210,326 102,713 8.74
Calvary Day 3-A 44.52 174,774 77,900 11.84
Mount Pisgah Christian 6-A 43.57 162,954 70,242 13.24
Tattnall Square 7-A 41.83 110,880 42,876 22.32
Pacelli 4-A 41.83 96,867 36,705 26.24
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-A 40.37 36,726 12,686 77.83
Stratford Academy 7-A 37.82 38,814 11,747 84.13
Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 35.60 43,134 10,735 92.15
Brookstone 4-A 37.41 31,203 8,910 111.23
Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 34.83 22,552 5,459 182.18
First Presbyterian 7-A 33.09 11,063 2,371 420.76
Pinecrest Academy 6-A 30.14 8,990 1,587 629.12
Athens Christian 8-A 29.37 9,337 1,508 662.13

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