Maxwell’s mid-season playoff projections: Classes AAA, AA, A

Below are the Maxwell Ratings’ mid-season projections of the playoff draw for Class AAA, Class AA, and Class A.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AAA

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
3 – AAA 1 630,670 464,123 1.15
6 – AAA 1 551,535 282,879 2.54
4 – AAA 2 288,735 116,328 7.60
8 – AAA 2 275,239 74,997 12.33
2 – AAA 2 168,055 47,878 19.89
5 – AAA 0 68,449 11,949 82.69
1 – AAA 0 10,935 1,068 935.33
7 – AAA 0 6,382 778 1,284.35

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Washington County 3 82.13 1,000,000 3.48 624,080 463,583 1.16
Calhoun 6 77.36 1,000,000 3.29 526,992 278,631 2.59
Blessed Trinity 4 71.52 989,225 1.89 174,728 81,725 11.24
Jefferson 8 65.57 999,026 2.18 126,697 37,919 25.37
Hart County 8 64.50 999,397 2.21 120,265 32,887 29.41
Westside (Macon) 2 65.92 999,993 1.84 104,694 31,012 31.25
Westminster (Atlanta) 4 66.64 976,301 1.19 82,822 29,042 33.43
Peach County 2 63.52 999,941 1.62 63,085 16,852 58.34
Central (Carrollton) 5 59.61 999,188 1.77 65,060 11,650 84.84
Cedar Grove 4 58.82 986,820 1.35 30,755 5,550 179.18
Elbert County 8 56.95 979,116 1.44 28,252 4,191 237.61
Adairsville 6 57.53 999,956 1.30 20,507 3,715 268.18
West Hall 7 50.19 999,150 1.25 6,374 778 1,284.35
Appling County 1 51.34 922,891 0.92 6,729 703 1,421.48
Laney 3 49.96 998,677 0.86 6,589 540 1,850.85
Ringgold 6 51.69 994,458 0.62 4,026 533 1,875.17
Callaway 5 49.10 994,655 0.63 3,377 299 3,343.48
Dodge County 1 48.34 880,810 0.70 2,908 270 3,702.70
Cook 1 43.76 819,028 0.50 768 63 15,872.02
Pierce County 1 45.50 558,388 0.18 395 25 39,999.00
Jackson 2 40.82 845,999 0.39 271 14 71,427.57
Washington 4 42.48 689,025 0.28 394 10 99,999.00
Jenkins 1 43.16 493,118 0.08 134 7 142,856.14
Maynard Jackson 4 37.92 193,832 0.05 33 1 999,999.00
Cedartown 5 36.13 909,003 0.09 12
Sonoraville 6 30.16 903,913 0.08 10
Morgan County 8 31.22 427,666 0.10 9
Jackson County 8 32.37 298,125 0.08 8
Oconee County 8 31.96 296,301 0.09 8
Lumpkin County 7 27.74 815,113 0.07 6
Decatur 4 40.19 12,417 0.00 3
Spencer 2 28.13 446,501 0.07 2
Rutland 2 29.51 359,166 0.06 2
Franklin County 7 26.97 757,919 0.04 1
Westside (Augusta) 3 28.94 624,619 0.04 1
East Hall 7 27.17 449,447 0.02 1
Southwest 2 27.81 280,288 0.04 1
Tattnall County 1 33.06 54,246 0.00 1
Glenn Hills 3 24.13 673,903 0.03
Dawson County 7 26.40 574,875 0.03
Pepperell 5 25.75 530,129 0.01
Rockmart 5 22.65 393,671 0.01
Butler 3 14.37 358,582 0.00
Hephzibah 3 14.36 284,975 0.00
Fannin County 7 19.28 221,779 0.00
Banks County 7 20.01 181,717 0.00
Haralson County 5 13.50 173,354 0.00
Towers 4 27.89 99,452 0.03
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 8.14 67,708 0.00
Toombs County 1 30.16 64,680 0.00
Southeast Bulloch 1 22.12 63,180 0.01
Beach 1 20.08 62,209 0.01
Johnson (Savannah) 1 20.75 60,518 0.01
Josey 3 5.66 59,244 0.00
Central (Macon) 2 26.17 48,893 0.01
North Clayton 4 25.06 43,910 0.01
North Murray 6 20.69 30,592 0.00
Kendrick 2 27.60 19,180 0.00
Savannah 1 14.39 13,472 0.00
Brantley County 1 24.05 6,792 0.00
Therrell 4 24.95 6,776 0.00
Gordon Central 6 3.75 3,370 0.00
McNair 4 17.06 817 0.00
South Atlanta 4 15.51 798 0.00
Islands 1 -1.37 668 0.00
Douglass 4 16.47 627 0.00
East Jackson 8 2.61 369 0.00
Jordan 2 17.14 39 0.00
Murray County 6 -7.46 2
Coahulla Creek 6 -8.93 1

 

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
AA

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
6 – AA 2 907,721 549,831 0.82
1 – AA 2 597,087 263,018 2.80
2 – AA 2 328,754 147,567 5.78
4 – AA 1 84,690 26,035 37.41
3 – AA 0 36,762 5,961 166.76
8 – AA 0 24,706 5,105 194.89
7 – AA 0 11,924 1,341 744.71
5 – AA 0 8,356 1,142 874.66

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 6 69.49 999,998 3.35 509,712 348,263 1.87
Lovett 6 65.60 999,996 2.87 384,636 199,752 4.01
Brooks County 1 63.20 997,075 2.74 309,933 156,804 5.38
Benedictine 2 62.54 999,978 2.12 197,480 96,092 9.41
Fitzgerald 1 59.93 993,056 2.42 226,444 91,397 9.94
Vidalia 2 59.43 999,530 1.75 130,881 51,458 18.43
Lamar County 4 57.18 995,706 1.42 72,105 24,136 40.43
Thomasville 1 52.23 938,112 1.28 59,976 14,764 66.73
Washington-Wilkes 8 50.22 999,777 1.23 23,734 5,033 197.69
Screven County 3 46.49 991,599 1.33 22,907 3,637 273.95
Jefferson County 3 46.62 951,247 0.93 11,757 2,108 473.38
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 45.40 866,743 1.01 11,466 1,677 595.30
Macon County 4 46.57 933,332 0.84 9,596 1,593 626.75
Bowdon 5 44.10 987,555 0.87 7,955 1,125 887.89
Model 7 42.57 996,854 0.97 6,560 777 1,286.00
Darlington 7 41.32 992,755 0.89 4,734 532 1,878.70
Bleckley County 4 41.74 845,574 0.57 2,770 295 3,388.83
Dublin 3 39.85 976,863 0.55 2,030 215 4,650.16
Wesleyan 6 37.62 886,758 0.65 1,804 129 7,750.94
Rabun County 8 35.22 995,328 0.56 630 46 21,738.13
Early County 1 39.33 408,662 0.08 446 34 29,410.76
Coosa 7 34.22 909,904 0.50 587 32 31,249.00
Union County 8 33.89 992,554 0.46 342 26 38,460.54
Bacon County 2 34.36 764,138 0.10 361 16 62,499.00
Northeast 4 31.74 692,933 0.21 180 11 90,908.09
Berrien 1 35.26 180,740 0.04 132 10 99,999.00
Pace Academy 6 34.13 159,372 0.08 103 10 99,999.00
Heard County 5 32.11 871,969 0.18 182 8 124,999.00
Seminole County 1 37.17 376,471 0.05 140 8 124,999.00
Bremen 5 31.80 944,222 0.21 189 7 142,856.14
Manchester 5 28.13 846,690 0.07 28 2 499,999.00
Swainsboro 3 31.24 672,210 0.12 55 1 999,999.00
Pelham 1 32.43 105,884 0.01 16 1 999,999.00
Bryan County 2 25.98 483,069 0.02 14 1 999,999.00
Dade County 7 28.60 733,518 0.20 43
Monticello 4 28.87 513,992 0.11 39
Jeff Davis 2 25.28 640,718 0.03 17
Metter 3 28.93 315,267 0.04 13
Chattahoochee County 5 19.14 335,947 0.01 2
McIntosh County Academy 2 24.51 87,825 0.00 1
Greene County 8 15.87 765,798 0.07
Chattooga 7 15.11 254,513 0.02
Riverside Military Academy 8 11.54 234,509 0.01
Gordon Lee 7 14.17 109,507 0.01
East Laurens 3 16.63 92,215 0.00
Hapeville 6 18.92 84,925 0.01
Putnam County 4 12.30 18,463 0.00
Temple 5 -1.15 13,617 0.00
Long County 2 19.19 12,650 0.00
Groves 2 15.65 12,092 0.00
Oglethorpe County 8 0.49 7,567 0.00
Social Circle 8 -14.85 4,467 0.00
Armuchee 7 -1.15 2,949 0.00
Holy Innocents 6 25.17 2,158 0.00
Harlem 3 -0.32 599 0.00
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 -2.88 50 0.00
Crawford County 4 2.71

 

Class A

Modal Brackets

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Class A-Public

A-Public

Class A-Private

A-Private

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Class A-Public

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
4 – A 3 999,279 548,496 0.82
2 – A 2 725,105 379,034 1.64
3 – A 1 178,345 52,255 18.14
8 – A 0 65,474 15,822 62.20
1 – A 0 13,977 1,644 607.27
6 – A 0 10,407 1,434 696.35
7 – A 0 7,413 1,315 759.46

 

Class A-Private

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
7 – A 2 595,898 333,531 2.00
6 – A 2 522,648 278,043 2.60
5 – A 1 335,075 152,097 5.57
3 – A 2 406,607 192,415 4.20
4 – A 1 117,429 40,142 23.91
8 – A 0 22,343 3,772 264.11
1 – A 0 0.00

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Class A-Public

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Hawkinsville 4 50.20 999,959 2.09 407,882 250,573 2.99
Marion County 4 49.28 999,996 1.96 372,249 214,017 3.67
Charlton County 2 49.43 999,275 1.94 360,102 212,110 3.71
Irwin County 2 47.56 991,398 1.65 283,051 148,292 5.74
Dooly County 4 43.62 997,327 1.26 173,503 72,358 12.82
Emanuel County Institute 3 39.81 991,860 1.20 133,280 43,347 22.07
Commerce 8 35.43 1,000,000 0.93 65,474 15,822 62.20
Clinch County 2 36.94 801,100 0.55 45,560 12,407 79.60
Greenville 4 35.89 933,762 0.60 45,588 11,542 85.64
Claxton 3 32.92 937,769 0.51 28,300 5,824 170.70
Telfair County 2 32.03 823,310 0.38 19,152 3,595 277.16
Johnson County 3 31.92 545,786 0.30 16,384 3,066 325.16
Atkinson County 2 29.48 863,716 0.33 12,341 1,858 537.21
Calhoun County 1 27.05 981,313 0.42 11,614 1,440 693.44
Trion 6 28.10 875,549 0.32 9,929 1,381 723.11
Lincoln County 7 33.49 129,941 0.08 5,278 1,128 885.52
Wilcox County 2 30.71 279,803 0.11 4,594 748 1,335.90
Mitchell County 1 23.06 444,269 0.15 2,297 204 4,900.96
Hancock Central 7 23.87 552,645 0.12 2,094 184 5,433.78
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 22.28 182,156 0.03 478 53 18,866.92
Turner County 2 24.31 68,028 0.01 305 24 41,665.67
Jenkins County 3 18.90 357,087 0.05 373 18 55,554.56
Schley County 4 18.48 70,819 0.01 57 6 166,665.67
Wilkinson County 7 20.21 20,158 0.00 41 3 333,332.33
Miller County 1 15.02 60,493 0.01 51
Terrell County 1 12.58 28,269 0.00 8
Randolph-Clay 1 10.84 32,503 0.00 7
Portal 3 16.81 9,495 0.00 6
Treutlen 3 9.14 8,950 0.00 2
Montgomery County 3 7.30 5,739 0.00
Central (Talbotton) 4 7.72 4,600 0.00
Wheeler County 3 3.25 1,635 0.00
Warren County 7 2.94 588 0.00
Taylor County 4 18.48 386 0.00
Georgia Military College 7 7.03 211 0.00
Lanier County 2 11.36 72 0.00
Towns County 8 -5.18 30
Twiggs County 7 0.80 3
Glascock County 7 -10.41
Stewart County 1 -14.46

 

Class A-Private

Team Rgn Rating Playoffs Depth Finals Champion Odds
Aquinas 7 50.30 999,995 2.22 436,365 279,899 2.57
Mount Paran Christian 6 49.07 999,581 2.01 371,033 220,643 3.53
Landmark Christian 5 46.01 999,536 1.64 269,965 131,331 6.61
Savannah Christian 3 45.37 996,457 1.49 219,906 106,236 8.41
Calvary Day 3 44.61 989,307 1.32 186,699 86,179 10.60
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 42.21 967,218 1.16 137,501 55,231 17.11
Tattnall Square 7 41.00 967,023 1.02 111,171 41,097 23.33
Pacelli 4 40.39 991,890 0.93 92,756 33,390 28.95
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 40.45 416,876 0.44 45,986 16,508 59.58
Stratford Academy 7 36.55 511,744 0.36 25,736 7,272 136.51
Brookstone 4 36.19 660,914 0.35 24,673 6,752 147.10
First Presbyterian 7 34.13 780,681 0.38 21,989 5,168 192.50
Our Lady of Mercy 5 33.47 836,179 0.36 19,121 4,258 233.85
Prince Avenue Christian 8 31.10 958,877 0.38 14,250 2,696 369.92
Pinecrest Academy 6 29.62 794,986 0.26 8,762 1,444 691.52
Athens Christian 8 27.81 918,961 0.27 6,520 935 1,068.52
St. Francis 6 27.37 780,299 0.20 5,074 699 1,429.62
Mount de Sales 7 26.57 105,524 0.03 637 95 10,525.32
George Walton Academy 8 22.42 521,382 0.07 858 70 14,284.71
Athens Academy 8 23.56 273,837 0.04 633 65 15,383.62
Christian Heritage 6 24.69 18,954 0.01 122 16 62,499.00
Whitefield Academy 6 21.58 69,570 0.01 150 10 99,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 14.43 419,838 0.03 82 6 166,665.67
Strong Rock Christian 5 13.95 7,616 0.00 3
Walker 6 14.21 6,941 0.00 3
King’s Ridge Christian 6 14.53 4,298 0.00 3
Savannah Country Day 3 19.46 650 0.00 2
Fellowship Christian 6 8.19 477 0.00
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 -5.79 363 0.00
Baconton 1 -9.94 17 0.00
Lakeview Academy 8 -7.04 9
North Cobb Christian 6 -18.96
Providence Christian 8 -31.92

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