Maxwell Week Five Summary: Jones County’s victory puts them on track for historic season

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Five:

– Jones County jumped over 14 points in the ratings and rose from number 30 to number 8 in the Class AAAAA rankings after their surprising victory over perennial superpower Northside of Warner Robins this past week. The Greyhounds are now 4-0 under first year coach Justin Rogers. That’s impressive for a school that has only won four or more games in fewer than half of its 70 seasons. Also, when counting last year’s final game, Jones County has now won 5 in a row. The school’s current longest winning streak is 8 games, set during their 1991 season. Maxwell estimates the school has a 50.2% chance of matching the streak and a 38.3% chance of extending it. At this point, the chance of an undefeated regular season sits at a respectable 29.9%. Their current best regular season record is 8-2, last achieved in 2001.

– Region rival Northside seemed less enthusiastic about the progress Jones County has made. The Eagles dropped nearly 8 points in the ratings after the defeat. Still, when considering their earlier victory over North Cobb, who handed last year’s Class AAAAAA runner-up North Gwinnett their only defeat of the season to date, and Northside’s consistent historical performance, the ratings view the Jones County loss as an upset, the seventh largest of the season so far. Of course it may look like less of an upset as the season progresses, but as of now Northside sits at third in Class AAAAA while Ware County takes over the top spot.

– In spite of Newton’s best efforts against Lowndes, Region 1-AAAAAA pushed to 28-0 against outside opponents this past Friday. Lee County puts the unblemished record on the line in a home game against tiny Class A Mitchell County this Friday in the region’s last regular season game against outside competition. According to Maxwell, Mitchell County, whose only victory has come against a winless fellow Class A team, is a 36-point underdog. Still, for those rooting against the 1-AAAAAA powerhouses and hoping to see Woody Harrelson play Mitchell County coach Larry Cornelius in a feel good Hollywood blockbuster based on the game, the ratings give the Panthers a 2.1% chance of pulling off the upset. Of course, for Class AAAAAA’s South Georgia football fans, this also means a 97.9% chance the Trojans will walk off the field with the region’s perfect record intact, forever etching its 2014 season into the record books. Then the region schedule begins…


As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 27.44%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 729 of 779 total games including 4 ties (93.84%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.97 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: 0.53

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 5-0 97.26 1 Ware County 4-0 79.12
2 North Gwinnett 3-1 88.39 2 Creekside 4-1 76.17
3 Grayson 4-0 87.56 3 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-1 76.02
4 Lowndes 5-0 87.36 4 Kell 4-0 75.83
5 McEachern 2-2 86.48 5 Gainesville 2-1 75.40
6 Camden County 5-0 86.27 6 Coffee 3-1 73.66
7 Dacula 4-0 83.06 7 Allatoona 4-0 71.63
8 Lovejoy 3-1 81.40 8 Jones County 4-0 67.62
9 Norcross 3-1 80.79 9 Carver (Columbus) 3-1 66.73
10 Peachtree Ridge 3-1 80.28 10 South Paulding 3-0 66.72
11 Valdosta 5-0 79.51 11 Stephenson 2-2 66.52
12 Milton 2-1 78.98 12 Stockbridge 3-1 65.87
13 Tucker 2-2 78.82 13 Mays 3-1 64.91
14 North Cobb 3-1 78.66 14 East Paulding 1-2 64.88
15 Hughes 2-1 78.59 15 Houston County 4-0 62.67
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 4-0 95.23 1 Washington County 4-0 81.58
2 Sandy Creek 4-0 87.44 2 Calhoun 4-0 78.20
3 Griffin 4-0 82.07 3 Blessed Trinity 4-0 71.46
4 Marist 4-0 77.16 4 Jefferson 4-0 66.77
5 Cartersville 2-1 68.69 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-0 66.60
6 Thomas County Central 2-1 68.41 6 Westside (Macon) 4-0 64.44
7 Woodward Academy 3-1 66.80 7 Peach County 4-0 63.51
8 Carrollton 1-3 65.09 8 Hart County 4-0 60.74
9 Cairo 3-1 63.74 9 Elbert County 3-1 57.71
10 Whitewater 3-1 63.09 10 Cedar Grove 3-1 57.67
11 Burke County 2-3 62.91 11 Central (Carrollton) 4-0 56.96
12 St. Pius X 1-2 60.83 12 Adairsville 3-0 54.74
13 Mary Persons 3-1 60.71 13 Callaway 2-2 51.44
14 North Oconee 1-2 58.21 14 West Hall 3-1 51.25
15 Troup 2-2 57.69 15 Ringgold 3-1 50.58
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 4-0 68.37 1 Aquinas 4-0 50.67
2 Lovett 3-2 66.45 2 Hawkinsville 4-0 50.30
3 Brooks County 2-2 63.86 3 Marion County 3-0 49.11
4 Benedictine 2-1 61.99 4 Savannah Christian 4-0 48.73
5 Fitzgerald 4-0 59.73 5 Mount Paran Christian 4-0 47.76
6 Vidalia 4-0 58.28 6 Charlton County 4-0 47.47
7 Lamar County 2-1-1 55.10 7 Landmark Christian 4-0 47.02
8 Thomasville 1-3 50.66 8 Irwin County 2-1-1 45.59
9 Washington-Wilkes 3-1 50.66 9 Calvary Day 3-0 44.43
10 Jefferson County 2-2 49.90 10 Mount Pisgah Christian 2-1 42.77
11 Macon County 2-2 45.43 11 Eagle’s Landing Christian 0-5 41.97
12 B.E.S.T. Academy 2-2 45.19 12 Tattnall Square 4-0 41.24
13 Bowdon 2-2 45.16 13 Dooly County 3-1 41.11
14 Darlington 3-1 42.61 14 Pacelli 4-0 41.08
15 Seminole County 2-1 39.77 15 Brookstone 2-1 40.22

 

All-Class

Rank Cls Rnk Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 97.26 44.93 164
2 1 Buford 8-AAAA 4-0 95.23 56.76 69
3 2 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 3-1 88.39 79.33 3
4 3 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 4-0 87.56 74.94 10
5 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 4-0 87.44 54.16 90
6 4 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 5-0 87.36 60.02 49
7 5 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 2-2 86.48 86.37 1
8 6 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 86.27 54.05 92
9 7 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 4-0 83.06 67.65 25
10 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 4-0 82.07 40.12 215
11 1 Washington County 3-AAA 4-0 81.58 54.24 88
12 8 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 3-1 81.40 66.04 30
13 9 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 3-1 80.79 68.96 22
14 10 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 3-1 80.28 69.92 19
15 11 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 5-0 79.51 51.15 114
16 1 Ware County 3-AAAAA 4-0 79.12 64.20 36
17 12 Milton 5-AAAAAA 2-1 78.98 77.03 4
18 13 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 2-2 78.82 51.26 111
19 14 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 3-1 78.66 70.43 18
20 15 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 2-1 78.59 75.84 8
21 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 4-0 78.20 39.49 227
22 16 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 3-1 77.98 75.57 9
23 17 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 2-2 77.95 71.60 15
24 4 Marist 6-AAAA 4-0 77.16 48.04 133
25 18 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 2-2 76.99 76.84 5
26 19 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-0 76.37 57.35 67
27 20 Walton 5-AAAAAA 3-1 76.25 69.07 21
28 2 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 76.17 62.56 44
29 3 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 3-1 76.02 62.87 42
30 21 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-2 75.96 72.31 14
31 4 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 75.83 55.26 80
32 5 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 2-1 75.40 50.16 120
33 22 Archer 8-AAAAAA 0-3 74.44 85.11 2
34 6 Coffee 3-AAAAA 3-1 73.66 58.00 62
35 23 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 3-1 72.85 57.67 66
36 7 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 4-0 71.63 52.39 103
37 24 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 2-2 71.52 69.32 20
38 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 4-0 71.46 49.72 122
39 25 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-2 71.32 71.08 17
40 26 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 3-0 71.21 58.17 60
41 27 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-1 69.92 64.10 39
42 28 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 69.14 42.67 184
43 5 Cartersville 7-AAAA 2-1 68.69 58.88 56
44 6 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 2-1 68.41 54.65 85
45 1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 4-0 68.37 46.58 150
46 8 Jones County 2-AAAAA 4-0 67.62 31.15 291
47 7 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 3-1 66.80 48.87 126
48 4 Jefferson 8-AAA 4-0 66.77 40.07 216
49 9 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 3-1 66.73 55.28 79
50 10 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-0 66.72 53.20 98
51 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 4-0 66.60 51.86 107
52 11 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 66.52 53.15 100
53 2 Lovett 6-AA 3-2 66.45 59.37 52
54 29 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-0 66.29 46.18 156
55 30 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 1-3 65.89 71.57 16
56 12 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 65.87 40.86 206
57 31 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-2 65.86 74.18 11
58 8 Carrollton 5-AAAA 1-3 65.09 67.40 27
59 32 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-4 65.08 76.56 6
60 13 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 64.91 51.19 113
61 14 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-2 64.88 64.86 35
62 6 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 4-0 64.44 42.11 193
63 3 Brooks County 1-AA 2-2 63.86 47.85 136
64 9 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 3-1 63.74 53.40 94
65 7 Peach County 2-AAA 4-0 63.51 35.82 262
66 33 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 63.14 36.68 252
67 10 Whitewater 5-AAAA 3-1 63.09 47.32 142
68 11 Burke County 3-AAAA 2-3 62.91 64.17 38
69 34 Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-1 62.73 48.43 130
70 15 Houston County 2-AAAAA 4-0 62.67 41.21 203
71 16 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 62.40 43.35 178
72 17 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-2 62.01 67.64 26
73 4 Benedictine 2-AA 2-1 61.99 45.68 157
74 35 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-4 61.88 73.39 13
75 18 Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-2 61.86 58.04 61
76 36 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 3-1 61.70 53.13 101
77 37 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-1 61.51 50.03 121
78 19 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-0 61.29 50.75 117
79 20 Lanier 8-AAAAA 4-0 61.29 49.05 124
80 21 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 2-2 61.05 56.74 70
81 12 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 1-2 60.83 60.60 48
82 8 Hart County 8-AAA 4-0 60.74 34.09 273
83 13 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 3-1 60.71 53.22 97
84 38 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-2 60.26 57.92 63
85 5 Fitzgerald 1-AA 4-0 59.73 42.98 180
86 39 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-2 58.34 65.68 31
87 6 Vidalia 2-AA 4-0 58.28 34.72 271
88 14 North Oconee 8-AAAA 1-2 58.21 64.89 34
89 22 Alexander 5-AAAAA 3-0 57.97 40.04 218
90 40 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-2 57.93 67.17 28
91 9 Elbert County 8-AAA 3-1 57.71 50.87 115
92 15 Troup 5-AAAA 2-2 57.69 55.14 82
93 10 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 3-1 57.67 47.64 139
94 41 Northview 6-AAAAAA 4-0 57.67 37.48 243
95 23 Mundy’s Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 57.59 59.36 53
96 11 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 4-0 56.96 37.27 245
97 24 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 56.84 48.57 129
98 42 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-3 56.54 63.70 40
99 16 Columbia 6-AAAA 3-1 56.47 39.68 225
100 43 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 3-1 56.39 42.23 189
101 17 Eagle’s Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 4-0 55.90 40.15 214
102 25 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-1 55.79 37.22 246
103 18 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 55.52 52.32 104
104 26 Evans 2-AAAAA 3-1 55.33 46.67 147
105 7 Lamar County 4-AA 2-1-1 55.10 39.97 219
106 27 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 54.97 31.90 287
107 12 Adairsville 6-AAA 3-0 54.74 41.41 199
108 19 Gilmer 7-AAAA 3-0 54.25 22.89 349
109 44 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 1-1 54.17 47.72 138
110 45 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 2-2 53.89 57.73 65
111 28 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 53.87 40.44 211
112 29 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 2-2 53.68 41.22 202
113 30 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 53.62 58.18 59
114 20 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 53.47 54.07 91
115 46 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 3-2 53.33 55.09 83
116 47 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-3 53.32 59.26 54
117 48 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 1-3 52.86 57.16 68
118 31 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 52.70 67.69 24
119 32 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-2 51.99 50.19 119
120 33 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 51.56 42.47 186
121 13 Callaway 5-AAA 2-2 51.44 46.84 145
122 14 West Hall 7-AAA 3-1 51.25 40.43 212
123 34 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-3 51.22 61.41 45
124 35 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 51.20 42.18 190
125 21 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-3 51.00 59.41 51
126 49 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 1-2 50.83 55.56 77
127 36 Hiram 5-AAAAA 2-1 50.74 46.23 155
128 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 4-0 50.67 32.08 283
129 37 Salem 8-AAAAA 3-1 50.67 46.67 146
130 8 Thomasville 1-AA 1-3 50.66 59.41 50
131 9 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 3-1 50.66 38.32 238
132 38 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 1-3 50.61 55.38 78
133 15 Ringgold 6-AAA 3-1 50.58 35.37 265
134 39 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 50.49 43.98 172
135 40 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 3-1 50.49 47.36 141
136 2 Hawkinsville 4-A 4-0 50.30 32.81 279
137 22 Grady 6-AAAA 3-1 50.19 38.58 236
138 41 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 1-3 50.17 53.26 96
139 16 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 50.11 36.88 251
140 23 Wayne County 3-AAAA 1-4 50.10 58.82 57
141 10 Jefferson County 3-AA 2-2 49.90 48.61 128
142 17 Laney 3-AAA 2-2 49.71 46.33 154
143 42 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-3 49.44 50.84 116
144 24 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-1 49.26 39.74 222
145 25 West Laurens 2-AAAA 2-2 49.21 53.30 95
146 3 Marion County 4-A 3-0 49.11 30.31 294
147 43 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 49.04 35.64 264
148 26 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 1-3 48.81 65.12 33
149 27 Pickens 7-AAAA 3-0 48.75 29.95 297
150 4 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 4-0 48.73 25.42 339
151 44 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 48.58 66.47 29
152 50 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-3 48.44 63.60 41
153 28 Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-2 48.34 44.70 169
154 51 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-3 48.00 54.37 87
155 29 Stephens County 8-AAAA 2-1 47.88 40.99 205
156 30 White County 8-AAAA 2-2 47.81 46.91 144
157 5 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 4-0 47.76 26.46 327
158 31 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 1-3 47.67 58.91 55
159 6 Charlton County 2-A 4-0 47.47 28.99 306
160 52 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-4 47.45 76.45 7
161 45 Loganville 8-AAAAA 2-1 47.35 45.37 162
162 7 Landmark Christian 5-A 4-0 47.02 25.29 340
163 32 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 2-2 46.65 46.63 148
164 53 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-1 46.62 47.85 135
165 46 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 46.44 27.54 318
166 47 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 46.20 56.06 74
167 48 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 2-2 45.86 55.60 76
168 49 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 45.70 43.50 176
169 8 Irwin County 2-A 2-1-1 45.59 41.66 197
170 50 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 1-3 45.56 52.67 102
171 33 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-3 45.54 61.39 46
172 34 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 3-0 45.50 28.17 312
173 11 Macon County 4-AA 2-2 45.43 45.54 159
174 51 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 45.32 51.82 108
175 35 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 2-2 45.27 38.63 235
176 12 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-2 45.19 51.73 109
177 54 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-3 45.19 65.32 32
178 13 Bowdon 5-AA 2-2 45.16 41.90 196
179 18 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 45.06 35.36 266
180 55 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-3 45.04 55.19 81
181 52 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 44.79 39.23 233
182 56 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-1 44.72 39.35 231
183 19 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 4-0 44.48 23.72 347
184 9 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 3-0 44.43 20.79 357
185 36 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 44.39 48.40 131
186 37 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 2-1 43.90 32.03 285
187 20 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 3-1 43.82 37.43 244
188 53 Starr’s Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 43.82 41.45 198
189 54 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 43.50 48.64 127
190 21 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-2 43.49 46.40 153
191 22 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 2-2 43.48 39.33 232
192 55 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 42.92 50.32 118
193 10 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 2-1 42.77 39.43 229
194 14 Darlington 7-AA 3-1 42.61 30.76 292
195 56 Shaw 1-AAAAA 2-2 42.58 42.14 192
196 57 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 42.32 61.13 47
197 58 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-3 42.08 51.23 112
198 11 Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-A 0-5 41.97 57.81 64
199 38 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-4 41.86 68.56 23
200 39 Perry 2-AAAA 1-3 41.72 54.51 86
201 59 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 2-2 41.68 40.29 213
202 12 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-0 41.24 12.32 395
203 60 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 41.21 46.92 143
204 13 Dooly County 4-A 3-1 41.11 27.99 314
205 14 Pacelli 4-A 4-0 41.08 25.47 338
206 57 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-1 40.86 25.49 336
207 61 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 40.85 32.64 281
208 62 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-3 40.73 56.62 71
209 40 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 40.46 37.17 247
210 41 Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-3 40.42 43.92 173
211 15 Brookstone 4-A 2-1 40.22 41.22 201
212 58 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-4 40.22 56.01 75
213 42 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-3 40.21 51.92 106
214 43 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-1 40.12 31.56 290
215 59 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-4 39.98 62.66 43
216 23 Cedartown 5-AAA 1-3 39.77 45.49 160
217 15 Seminole County 1-AA 2-1 39.77 28.04 313
218 44 Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-2 39.73 44.80 167
219 24 Jackson 2-AAA 2-1 39.65 36.49 255
220 25 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 1-3 39.48 41.99 195
221 45 Fayette County 5-AAAA 1-3 39.47 48.06 132
222 63 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 39.39 40.61 210
223 46 Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-2 39.16 38.28 239
224 16 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 3-0 39.14 25.23 341
225 64 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-2 39.12 46.54 152
226 16 Screven County 3-AA 4-0 39.07 18.70 368
227 17 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 3-1 38.97 27.94 316
228 17 Early County 1-AA 1-2-1 38.92 36.13 259
229 47 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 2-2 38.61 39.62 226
230 65 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 38.56 58.74 58
231 66 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 38.52 40.61 209
232 18 Bleckley County 4-AA 1-3 38.36 45.54 158
233 19 Model 7-AA 4-0 38.32 25.50 335
234 48 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 1-3 38.14 54.24 89
235 20 Pace Academy 6-AA 2-3 37.94 45.12 163
236 49 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 2-2 37.87 43.18 179
237 50 Howard 2-AAAA 2-1-1 37.61 38.26 240
238 67 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 37.14 36.16 258
239 21 Dublin 3-AA 2-2 36.85 31.94 286
240 22 Heard County 5-AA 1-3 36.24 43.88 174
241 60 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-4 36.22 51.33 110
242 23 Berrien 1-AA 2-1 36.01 41.10 204
243 51 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-1 35.96 35.73 263
244 18 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-2 35.87 34.80 270
245 24 Rabun County 8-AA 3-2 35.53 33.70 277
246 68 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 2-2 35.42 34.21 272
247 52 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 2-2 35.33 47.85 137
248 69 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-2 35.19 48.96 125
249 70 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-2-1 35.11 42.17 191
250 25 Wesleyan 6-AA 3-1 35.06 21.03 356
251 53 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 2-2 34.88 32.78 280
252 54 Madison County 8-AAAA 2-1 34.71 30.71 293
253 19 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 2-2 34.56 26.98 324
254 20 Clinch County 2-A 1-3 34.55 42.08 194
255 26 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 34.15 24.02 345
256 55 Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-3 33.85 42.41 187
257 21 Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-1 33.51 32.06 284
258 26 Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-3 33.46 42.39 188
259 22 Commerce 8-A 3-1 33.31 23.94 346
260 23 Wilcox County 2-A 2-2 32.84 33.11 278
261 24 Telfair County 2-A 4-0 32.60 17.00 376
262 25 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 2-2 32.60 29.06 304
263 27 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-2-1 32.56 39.37 230
264 28 Jackson County 8-AAA 1-3 32.26 36.89 248
265 27 Pelham 1-AA 3-1 32.26 21.71 354
266 61 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-3 32.11 44.81 166
267 29 Oconee County 8-AAA 4-0 31.97 15.50 382
268 62 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 2-3 31.68 35.97 260
269 28 Bacon County 2-AA 1-3 31.61 44.11 171
270 29 Coosa 7-AA 1-2 31.53 40.67 207
271 71 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-4 31.52 53.61 93
272 30 Morgan County 8-AAA 2-2 31.39 26.94 325
273 30 Union County 8-AA 4-0 31.34 13.03 391
274 72 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-3 31.32 46.62 149
275 31 Manchester 5-AA 2-2 31.02 29.47 301
276 31 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 30.99 29.73 299
277 32 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-4 30.99 52.31 105
278 73 Columbus 1-AAAAA 2-2 30.89 35.01 269
279 26 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 1-3 30.62 33.76 276
280 33 Bremen 5-AA 2-2 30.46 29.04 305
281 34 Northeast 4-AA 1-3 30.26 36.50 254
282 35 Metter 3-AA 2-2 30.24 29.66 300
283 27 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 3-0 30.17 19.27 363
284 32 East Hall 7-AAA 1-2 30.15 38.67 234
285 28 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 2-2 30.09 29.91 298
286 33 Rutland 2-AAA 1-3 29.85 37.69 242
287 74 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 29.79 45.42 161
288 75 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-3 29.76 47.37 140
289 76 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 29.65 36.25 257
290 29 Greenville 4-A 2-1 29.62 22.89 350
291 36 Dade County 7-AA 1-3 29.55 46.58 151
292 77 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-3 29.43 36.88 250
293 37 Swainsboro 3-AA 1-3 29.42 47.99 134
294 34 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-2 29.36 32.52 282
295 30 Athens Christian 8-A 2-2 29.24 26.16 329
296 56 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-4 29.11 64.20 37
297 38 Monticello 4-AA 1-3 29.06 36.56 253
298 35 Sonoraville 6-AAA 3-1 28.64 19.19 364
299 36 Pepperell 5-AAA 1-3 28.53 35.87 261
300 37 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-4 28.38 49.30 123
301 38 Southwest 2-AAA 2-2 28.11 42.81 181
302 31 Trion 6-Div A-A 3-1 27.08 15.95 378
303 78 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 26.98 42.77 182
304 39 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-3 26.84 39.44 228
305 39 Bryan County 2-AA 2-2 26.56 24.99 342
306 32 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 2-1 26.53 19.09 365
307 40 Kendrick 2-AAA 2-2 26.12 25.57 333
308 41 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-4 25.98 44.36 170
309 33 Calhoun County 1-A 3-2 25.88 28.31 311
310 34 George Walton Academy 8-A 2-2 25.43 19.29 362
311 57 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-4 25.33 43.83 175
312 58 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-1 25.22 27.48 321
313 35 Turner County 2-A 2-2 25.16 24.62 343
314 42 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-4 25.10 54.75 84
315 36 Mitchell County 1-A 1-3 25.06 31.57 289
316 37 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 2-2 24.92 27.68 317
317 43 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 2-2 24.53 29.46 302
318 59 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-0 24.50 -3.63 414
319 44 Franklin County 7-AAA 1-2 24.28 42.54 185
320 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-4 24.21 53.19 99
321 38 Atkinson County 2-A 3-1 23.69 20.26 360
322 45 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 1-3 23.23 29.24 303
323 39 Athens Academy 8-A 1-2 23.22 21.22 355
324 79 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-3 22.90 42.74 183
325 40 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-0 22.79 -7.59 417
326 60 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-3 21.97 38.58 237
327 46 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 21.92 40.05 217
329 41 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-2 21.90 18.21 373
328 47 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 2-2 21.91 22.09 352
330 42 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 3-2 21.67 15.87 380
331 48 Rockmart 5-AAA 1-3 21.35 27.53 319
332 49 Spencer 2-AAA 0-3 20.99 56.32 73
333 43 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 1-3 20.82 28.94 307
334 61 LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-1 20.36 15.41 383
335 50 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-3 20.29 27.07 323
336 51 North Murray 6-AAA 1-3 20.22 28.88 308
337 52 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 20.14 35.23 268
338 80 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 19.91 44.83 165
339 40 Jeff Davis 2-AA 3-1 19.89 8.21 401
340 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-3 19.77 56.36 72
341 62 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 19.72 25.56 334
342 41 Long County 2-AA 1-2 19.66 27.98 315
343 44 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 1-3 19.63 27.10 322
344 45 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-3 19.44 31.77 288
345 53 Fannin County 7-AAA 2-2 18.93 17.78 374
346 54 Banks County 7-AAA 3-1 18.41 6.63 403
347 46 Miller County 1-A 0-4 18.38 39.96 220
348 47 Portal 3-Div A-A 2-1 18.15 15.83 381
350 48 Taylor County 4-A 0-3-1 17.81 26.85 326
349 55 Jordan 2-AAA 1-3 17.81 25.84 331
351 49 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-0 17.67 7.20 402
352 56 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-3 17.56 24.03 344
353 50 King’s Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-3 17.06 36.89 249
354 57 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-3 16.84 29.99 296
355 58 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-2 16.64 17.07 375
356 51 Walker 6-Div A-A 1-3 16.59 26.33 328
357 63 Redan 6-AAAA 0-4 16.59 39.72 223
358 64 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-3 16.52 34.00 274
359 81 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-3 16.25 43.44 177
360 52 Schley County 4-A 2-1 15.96 13.53 389
361 82 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 15.50 39.93 221
362 42 East Laurens 3-AA 2-1-1 15.41 4.69 405
363 43 Chattooga 7-AA 1-3 15.20 25.77 332
364 83 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-4 15.15 36.45 256
365 44 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 2-1 15.05 11.92 397
366 84 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 15.02 38.03 241
367 45 Groves 2-AA 3-1 15.00 3.96 408
368 46 Greene County 8-AA 1-3 14.98 25.88 330
369 59 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 14.33 33.89 275
370 47 Putnam County 4-AA 2-3 14.26 14.84 385
371 53 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 2-2 14.09 25.47 337
372 54 Terrell County 1-A 0-3 13.93 44.71 168
373 60 Haralson County 5-AAA 1-2 13.92 18.86 367
374 48 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-2 13.59 20.18 361
375 49 Hapeville 6-AA 1-3 13.32 30.13 295
376 55 Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-2 12.83 19.02 366
377 56 Lanier County 2-A 1-3 12.58 20.37 359
378 57 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-2 12.23 12.35 394
379 65 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 0-5 11.73 35.25 267
380 50 Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-3 11.73 18.63 369
381 58 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 3-1 10.04 2.14 410
382 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-3 9.71 73.63 12
383 59 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-4 9.15 28.75 309
384 61 Hephzibah 3-AAA 2-1 8.69 -2.19 413
385 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-5 8.66 39.68 224
386 62 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-4 7.59 40.65 208
387 60 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-3 7.55 28.60 310
388 63 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 2-2 6.57 4.38 406
389 64 Josey 3-AAA 1-3 6.28 22.71 351
390 65 Butler 3-AAA 0-2 5.29 18.39 372
391 67 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-4 4.83 21.79 353
392 51 Temple 5-AA 2-2 4.35 1.09 411
393 52 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-3 4.34 41.29 200
394 61 Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-3 3.83 12.96 392
395 62 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-3 2.96 14.27 387
396 63 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 1-3 2.51 13.96 388
397 53 Armuchee 7-AA 1-3 1.48 13.36 390
398 66 East Jackson 8-AAA 1-3 1.43 11.97 396
399 64 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-2 0.66 15.90 379
400 54 Harlem 3-AA 1-3 0.47 12.70 393
401 67 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 -2.61 18.45 371
402 65 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-3 -2.94 27.51 320
403 55 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-3 -4.16 20.41 358
404 56 Crawford County 4-AA† 2-3 -5.69 -1.46 412
405 66 Towns County 8-A 1-3 -7.07 4.31 407
406 68 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-5 -7.69 14.47 386
407 67 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -8.36 -4.52 415
408 68 Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-3 -8.40 5.48 404
409 68 Murray County 6-AAA 0-3 -8.57 17.00 377
410 69 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-4 -8.69 15.33 384
411 69 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-5 -10.64 8.58 400
412 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-3 -13.76 10.79 398
413 70 Baconton 1-A 0-4 -15.20 18.54 370
414 71 Stewart County 1-A† 0-4 -17.04 10.34 399
415 72 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-3 -19.64 3.48 409
416 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -28.01 -4.64 416
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-3 -30.55 23.55 348
†-Plays non-region schedule

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 97.91 80.64
2 7 – AAAAAA 88.96 68.98
3 8 – AAAAAA 86.53 69.34
4 4 – AAAAAA 84.47 68.58
5 5 – AAAAAA 83.76 66.91
6 5 – AAAA 81.92 63.23
7 2 – AAAAAA 80.59 57.65
8 3 – AAAAAA 76.06 57.78
9 3 – AAAAA 74.73 55.11
10 5 – AAAAA 71.52 53.45
11 2 – AAAAA 69.67 48.43
12 6 – AAAAA 69.65 53.19
6 – Div B – AAAAA 76.04 58.22
6 – Div A – AAAAA 63.73 49.40
13 6 – AAAAAA 68.44 51.10
14 8 – AAAAA 67.28 49.96
15 8 – AAAA 66.55 47.90
16 1 – AAAA 64.79 45.58
1 – Div A – AAAA 68.91 47.81
1 – Div B – AAAA 60.65 43.83
17 6 – AAAA 64.68 45.70
18 8 – AAA 64.65 41.29
19 1 – AA 63.49 45.39
20 1 – AAAAA 63.10 41.42
21 7 – AAAAA 62.65 43.16
7 – Div B – AAAAA 64.73 42.33
7 – Div A – AAAAA 60.97 43.78
22 6 – AA 62.38 37.81
23 7 – AAAA 62.09 42.01
24 2 – AAAA 61.64 46.21
25 4 – AAAAA 61.41 44.67
4 – Div B – AAAAA 64.40 47.98
4 – Div A – AAAAA 58.54 41.43
26 3 – AAAA 60.81 45.39
27 4 – AAA 59.81 35.24
4 – Div B – AAA 68.09 42.94
4 – Div A – AAA 49.54 29.31
28 4 – AAAA 58.68 38.13
4 – Div B – AAAA 63.42 37.74
4 – Div A – AAAA 55.87 38.46
29 3 – AAA 56.66 25.23
30 6 – AAA 56.66 21.77
31 2 – AAA 56.38 33.20
32 5 – AAA 55.75 35.11
33 2 – AA 54.34 30.70
34 4 – A 51.87 33.19
35 4 – AA 51.30 35.50
36 1 – AAA 49.26 30.44
1 – Div A – AAA 54.79 38.91
1 – Div B – AAA 37.89 19.37
37 2 – A 48.82 31.90
38 5 – A 48.64 28.14
39 3 – AA 48.11 29.89
40 5 – AA 45.61 27.81
41 3 – A 44.37 23.98
3 – Div A – A 48.88 29.82
3 – Div B – A 37.27 15.69
42 7 – AAA 44.08 26.58
43 7 – A 44.02 26.04
7 – Div A – A 45.90 28.59
7 – Div B – A 41.11 22.53
44 7 – AA 43.42 24.86
45 8 – AA 42.64 19.66
46 6 – A 40.85 24.67
6 – Div B – A 41.03 24.02
6 – Div A – A 40.64 25.46
47 8 – A 36.05 15.45
48 1 – A 29.53 15.26

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
8/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 – 8 15.68 82.8% 0.270
9/19 Early County Calhoun County 12 – 14 12.51 77.8% 0.313
8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 – 36 10.26 73.6% 0.328
9/12 Metter Long County 20 – 28 10.05 73.2% 0.328
8/22 Lamar County Howard 19 – 19 18.02 85.8% 0.349
9/12 Campbell Lakeside (Atlanta) 38 – 42 9.71 72.5% 0.349
9/19 Northside (Warner Robins) Jones County 37 – 45 7.87 68.7% 0.366
9/5 Cook Berrien 14 – 21 8.00 69.0% 0.367
8/22 South Forsyth Mountain View 31 – 38 7.41 67.7% 0.378
8/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 22 – 21 32.54 96.3% 0.381
9/5 Appling County Jenkins 20 – 23 7.15 67.1% 0.395
9/19 Prince Avenue Christian Athens Christian 32 – 42 5.86 64.2% 0.398
9/19 Christian Heritage Fellowship Christian 12 – 13 6.87 66.5% 0.407
8/29 Callaway B.E.S.T. Academy 7 – 14 5.71 63.9% 0.407
8/29 Wesleyan East Hall 13 – 20 5.44 63.3% 0.412

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.73 10/03 Colquitt County Lowndes 10.43 73.9%
88.78 09/05 Buford McEachern 27 – 20 9.28 71.7%
88.65 11/07 Colquitt County Camden County 11.53 76.0%
87.34 08/23 North Gwinnett McEachern 52 – 49 1.91 54.8%
86.75 10/10 Lowndes Camden County 1.63 54.1%
84.92 10/24 Grayson Dacula 3.96 59.8%
83.43 09/19 McEachern Lovejoy 7 – 3 4.55 61.2%
82.99 10/03 North Gwinnett Norcross 8.13 69.3%
82.94 10/10 North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge 7.58 68.1%
82.27 09/12 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 35 – 21 6.73 66.2%
82.13 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta 7.32 67.5%
82.05 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta 17.22 84.8%
81.59 10/03 Camden County Valdosta 7.29 67.5%
81.36 09/05 Grayson Hughes 26 – 16 8.43 69.9%
81.27 10/10 McEachern North Cobb 7.29 67.5%

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