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Todd HolcombTodd Holcomb

AAAA: Maxwell projects playoff draws, results

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The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons, approximately 51 each second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. In Class AAAA, there are 9.96 x 10^33 possible brackets. For comparison, scientists estimate there are 7.5 x 10^18 grains of sand on earth.

2014 08 01 AAAA

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
8 – AAAA 1 686,033 492,912 1.03
5 – AAAA 2 818,363 369,846 1.70
4 – AAAA 1 174,887 82,150 11.17
6 – AAAA 1 154,326 28,284 34.35
3 – AAAA 0 66,859 13,286 74.27
1 – AAAA 0 77,055 11,370 86.95
7 – AAAA 0 15,925 1,809 551.79
2 – AAAA 0 6,552 343 2,914.45

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Finals Champion Odds
Buford 94.31 999,957 4.84 649,746 489,773 1.04
Sandy Creek 88.67 998,672 4.50 586,866 301,887 2.31
Griffin 83.63 998,668 3.21 174,394 82,136 11.17
Carrollton 80.19 985,992 3.20 198,790 64,324 14.55
Marist 74.12 997,410 2.62 109,363 21,327 45.89
Burke County 72.23 999,966 2.64 53,223 12,292 80.35
Thomas County Central 71.46 964,045 2.61 70,305 10,981 90.07
St. Pius X 70.74 993,320 2.07 44,517 6,935 143.20
Monroe Area 65.31 894,032 2.11 23,486 2,194 454.79
Whitewater 66.92 892,419 1.61 17,209 2,096 476.10
Cartersville 64.43 990,432 2.24 14,018 1,759 567.50
Woodward Academy 65.43 814,494 1.41 14,921 1,515 659.07
Wayne County 62.14 999,170 1.99 11,652 917 1,089.51
North Hall 62.17 762,824 1.63 9,943 799 1,250.56
Mary Persons 58.30 963,503 1.79 5,319 298 3,354.70
Cairo 59.62 730,246 1.41 3,878 256 3,905.25
North Oconee 57.03 594,821 1.06 2,091 116 8,619.69
Bainbridge 55.56 763,237 1.45 1,656 96 10,415.67
Thomson 54.63 990,575 1.56 1,822 72 13,887.89
Northwest Whitfield 53.54 927,614 1.36 1,271 38 26,314.79
Veterans 52.84 891,485 1.40 1,053 37 27,026.03
Westover 53.88 604,526 1.08 901 28 35,713.29
Troup 56.00 288,151 0.37 577 24 41,665.67
White County 53.30 334,277 0.54 475 14 71,427.57
Chestatee 52.10 283,021 0.44 260 14 71,427.57
Gilmer 51.72 909,027 1.21 580 12 83,332.33
Grady 52.55 644,856 0.71 222 11 90,908.09
Monroe 51.34 465,225 0.73 297 8 124,999.00
Columbia 51.26 583,108 0.63 131 8 124,999.00
Baldwin 48.51 750,161 1.02 142 7 142,856.14
Eastside 49.29 761,281 0.98 204 6 166,665.67
Liberty County 47.55 986,521 1.25 162 5 199,999.00
Eagle’s Landing 46.71 717,195 0.91 124 5 199,999.00
Jonesboro 50.77 549,485 0.69 143 3 333,332.33
Arabia Mountain 50.94 442,097 0.48 86 2 499,999.00
Stephens County 48.07 129,840 0.18 32 2 499,999.00
Chamblee 45.63 215,995 0.22 7 1 999,999.00
Crisp County 43.90 187,038 0.25 13 1 999,999.00
Perry 43.89 599,196 0.74 24 1 999,999.00
Ridgeland 46.22 723,072 0.83 54 - -
Riverdale 43.62 314,141 0.35 11 - -
Locust Grove 42.39 501,967 0.58 11 - -
West Laurens 41.75 383,031 0.46 8 - -
Upson-Lee 41.30 410,915 0.48 6 - -
Americus-Sumter 41.06 156,472 0.20 5 - -
Worth County 39.94 122,121 0.15 - - -
Pickens 39.29 395,100 0.42 2 - -
Lithonia 39.04 81,316 0.08 - - -
Pike County 37.32 103,507 0.11 - - -
Fayette County 36.58 20,272 0.02 - - -
Stone Mountain 35.65 40,530 0.04 - - -
Maynard Jackson 32.07 95,408 0.11 3 - -
Spalding 28.86 21,099 0.02 - - -
Madison County 28.67 1,228 0.00 - - -
Southeast Whitfield 28.19 41,526 0.04 - - -
Albany 27.40 3,695 0.00 - - -
Henry County 26.01 29,513 0.03 - - -
Redan 25.44 1,368 0.00 - - -
Dougherty 22.24 3,395 0.00 - - -
LaFayette 20.35 11,167 0.01 - - -
Johnson (Gainesville) 18.39 - 0.00 - - -
Walnut Grove 15.60 2,578 0.00 - - -
Howard 14.16 1,709 0.00 - - -
Heritage (Ringgold) 13.79 2,062 0.00 - - -
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 13.13 212 0.00 - - -
Hampton 10.95 354 0.00 - - -
New Hampstead 10.95 - 0.00 - - -
Windsor Forest 9.36 23,768 0.02 - - -
Cross Keys -22.67 - 0.00 - - -
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