Posted: 10:43 pm Tuesday, August 12th, 2014

AAAA: Maxwell predicts region standings, WL records 

By Todd Holcomb

The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia’s Class AAAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.

His region-by-region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAA team).

Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.

Region Strength and Parity

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.

Region Competitive Rating Average Rating Parity Index
5 – AAAA 86.30 66.40 0.521
8 – AAAA 74.75 56.55 0.151
1 – Div A – AAAA 70.23 51.15 0.587
3 – AAAA 69.24 53.08 0.467
6 – AAAA 67.12 48.98 0.549
4 – Div B – AAAA 66.27 40.72 0.115
2 – AAAA 60.74 44.34 0.756
7 – AAAA 60.39 40.30 0.587
1 – Div B – AAAA 60.20 43.14 0.720
4 – Div A – AAAA 51.89 32.29 0.756

 

Region by Region Breakdown

Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.

1 – Div A – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Thomas County Central 7 71.46 47.67 8.50-1.50 3.56-0.44 1.40 695,247 0.44
Cairo 15 59.62 49.74 7.14-2.86 2.73-1.27 2.30 202,786 3.93
Monroe 28 51.34 48.00 5.67-4.33 1.99-2.01 2.92 73,688 12.57
Crisp County 39 43.90 52.30 3.94-6.06 1.44-2.56 3.58 28,135 34.54
Albany 56 27.40 44.16 2.85-7.15 0.29-3.71 4.79 144 6,943.44

 

1 – Div B – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Bainbridge 19 55.56 48.13 6.16-3.84 3.15-0.85 1.64 545,104 0.83
Westover 21 53.88 46.64 6.15-3.85 2.98-1.02 2.05 347,829 1.87
Americus-Sumter 45 41.06 42.93 4.38-5.62 1.79-2.21 3.23 59,757 15.73
Worth County 46 39.94 52.21 2.88-7.12 1.75-2.25 3.40 46,193 20.65
Dougherty 59 22.24 36.99 2.58-6.42 0.34-3.67 4.68 1,117 894.26

 

2 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Mary Persons 16 58.30 47.25 6.84-3.16 4.82-1.18 1.88 491,604 1.03
Veterans 24 52.84 49.26 5.59-4.41 4.15-1.85 2.49 313,140 2.19
Baldwin 33 48.51 46.00 5.43-4.57 3.61-2.39 3.44 85,430 10.71
Perry 40 43.89 47.28 4.35-5.65 2.96-3.04 3.99 63,387 14.78
West Laurens 43 41.75 48.75 3.56-6.44 2.63-3.37 4.69 27,110 35.89
Upson-Lee 44 41.30 39.86 5.29-4.71 2.60-3.40 4.60 19,326 50.74
Howard 63 14.16 45.43 0.73-9.27 0.22-5.78 6.91 3 333,332.33

 

3 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Burke County 6 72.23 57.91 7.49-2.51 4.39-0.61 1.30 772,545 0.29
Wayne County 14 62.14 58.02 5.97-4.03 2.78-1.22 2.16 163,118 5.13
Thomson 20 54.63 54.78 4.98-5.02 2.28-2.72 3.05 55,391 17.05
Liberty County 35 47.55 50.68 4.46-5.54 1.52-2.48 3.51 8,946 110.78
Windsor Forest 68 9.36 36.38 1.46-8.54 0.03-3.97 4.97 - - New Hampstead† 67 10.95 9.35 4.76-5.24
† – Plays non-region schedule

 

4 – Div A – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Eagle’s Landing 36 46.71 31.68 6.82-3.18 3.93-1.07 1.93 429,471 1.33
Eastside 32 49.29 38.99 6.27-3.73 4.04-0.96 1.88 398,110 1.51
Locust Grove 42 42.39 32.07 6.35-3.65 3.45-1.55 2.48 164,449 5.08
Henry County 57 26.01 40.00 3.30-6.70 1.89-3.11 4.18 7,160 138.66
Walnut Grove 62 15.60 36.59 2.04-7.96 1.01-3.99 5.03 742 1,346.71
Hampton 66 10.95 46.15 1.00-8.00 0.68-4.32 5.50 68 14,704.88

 

4 – Div B – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Griffin 3 83.63 37.03 9.61-0.39 4.93-0.07 1.06 950,048 0.05
Jonesboro 31 50.77 47.31 5.66-4.34 3.38-1.62 2.59 38,473 24.99
Riverdale 41 43.62 35.43 5.98-4.02 2.74-2.26 3.09 7,302 135.95
Pike County 49 37.32 42.17 4.42-5.58 2.21-2.79 3.92 3,877 256.93
Spalding 53 28.86 39.98 3.69-6.31 1.42-3.58 4.60 300 3,332.33
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 65 13.13 42.71 1.26-8.74 0.32-4.68 5.74 - -

 

5 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Sandy Creek 2 88.67 59.62 9.10-0.90 4.46-0.54 1.36 721,001 0.39
Carrollton 4 80.19 64.29 7.68-2.32 3.84-1.16 2.21 208,375 3.80
Woodward Academy 10 65.43 61.90 5.51-4.49 2.44-2.56 3.56 43,705 21.88
Whitewater 9 66.92 57.58 6.48-3.52 2.54-2.46 3.30 25,528 38.17
Troup 18 56.00 63.91 3.54-6.46 1.49-3.51 4.71 1,387 719.98
Fayette County 50 36.58 58.83 1.36-8.64 0.23-4.77 5.85 4 249,999.00

 

6 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Marist 5 74.12 48.37 8.74-1.26 7.24-0.76 1.45 629,009 0.59
St. Pius X 8 70.74 49.92 8.18-1.82 6.87-1.13 1.82 340,491 1.94
Grady 25 52.55 48.54 5.76-4.24 4.56-3.44 4.13 16,218 60.66
Columbia 29 51.26 49.77 5.27-4.73 4.33-3.67 4.40 7,018 141.49
Arabia Mountain 30 50.94 53.58 4.59-5.41 4.30-3.70 4.78 6,250 159.00
Chamblee 38 45.63 45.97 4.95-5.05 3.46-4.54 5.82 923 1,082.42
Lithonia 48 39.04 45.33 4.03-5.97 2.45-5.55 6.69 81 12,344.68
Stone Mountain 51 35.65 53.76 2.13-7.87 1.98-6.03 7.34 10 99,999.00
Redan 58 25.44 46.68 1.75-8.25 0.81-7.19 8.56 - - Cross Keys† 69 -22.67 7.26 0.72-4.28
† – Plays non-region schedule

 

7 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Cartersville 12 64.43 43.31 7.75-2.25 6.25-0.75 1.51 669,037 0.49
Northwest Whitfield 22 53.54 40.37 7.18-2.82 5.10-1.90 2.62 134,369 6.44
Gilmer 27 51.72 36.15 7.34-2.66 4.93-2.07 2.93 131,832 6.59
Ridgeland 37 46.22 35.48 6.66-3.34 4.26-2.74 3.72 52,500 18.05
Pickens 47 39.29 38.10 5.17-4.83 3.44-3.56 4.61 12,026 82.15
Southeast Whitfield 55 28.19 28.67 4.95-5.05 2.07-4.93 6.14 231 4,328.00
LaFayette 60 20.35 35.48 2.89-7.11 1.21-5.79 6.92 5 199,999.00
Heritage (Ringgold) 64 13.79 42.05 1.19-8.81 0.75-6.25 7.54 - -

 

8 – AAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Buford 1 94.31 55.67 9.59-0.41 6.84-0.16 1.08 930,524 0.07
Monroe Area 11 65.31 53.25 6.81-3.19 4.74-2.26 2.84 41,348 23.18
North Hall 13 62.17 57.49 5.77-4.23 4.25-2.75 3.53 23,597 41.38
North Oconee 17 57.03 57.68 4.90-5.10 3.58-3.42 4.26 2,060 484.44
White County 23 53.30 49.18 5.65-4.35 3.04-3.96 5.14 1,666 599.24
Chestatee 26 52.10 54.14 4.65-5.35 2.82-4.18 5.32 753 1,327.02
Stephens County 34 48.07 54.09 4.09-5.91 2.31-4.69 5.95 52 19,229.77
Madison County 54 28.67 52.94 1.62-8.38 0.42-6.58 7.87 - -
Johnson (Gainesville)† 61 18.39 28.56 2.99-7.01
† – Plays non-region schedule
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