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Todd HolcombTodd Holcomb

AAAAAA: Maxwell projects playoff draw, results

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Below are the Maxwell Ratings’ predictions of the playoff draw for Class AAAAAA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons, approximately 51 each second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. In Class AAAAAA, there are 1.52 x 10^34 possible brackets. For comparison, scientists estimate there are 7.5 x 10^18 grains of sand on earth.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
7 – AAAAAA 3 980,894 611,284 0.64
1 – AAAAAA 3 505,072 231,737 3.32
4 – AAAAAA 2 248,409 82,779 11.08
2 – AAAAAA 2 126,542 43,969 21.74
5 – AAAAAA 0 58,804 12,545 78.71
8 – AAAAAA 0 42,611 10,914 90.63
6 – AAAAAA 0 20,299 3,466 287.52
3 – AAAAAA 0 17,369 3,306 301.48

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Finals Champion Odds
Norcross 96.86 984,888 4.06 493,449 353,762 1.83
North Gwinnett 93.63 973,382 3.57 377,852 221,081 3.52
Colquitt County 89.19 983,091 3.00 212,946 105,667 8.46
Camden County 88.44 969,585 2.98 206,178 97,837 9.22
McEachern 84.12 935,566 2.88 124,910 47,887 19.88
Lovejoy 83.32 999,454 2.14 71,665 25,790 37.77
Collins Hill 84.24 809,386 1.91 69,471 25,557 38.13
Lowndes 82.98 924,962 2.09 69,037 24,149 40.41
Hillgrove 81.26 906,129 2.49 71,607 22,729 43.00
Tucker 81.96 998,842 2.02 54,860 18,178 54.01
North Cobb 77.69 857,145 2.09 34,364 8,716 113.73
Grayson 79.70 903,079 1.49 23,536 6,754 147.06
Mill Creek 80.16 588,490 1.18 23,547 6,609 150.31
Lassiter 76.16 939,823 2.19 26,618 5,961 166.76
Walton 75.96 941,404 2.17 25,272 5,629 176.65
Peachtree Ridge 78.67 634,432 1.18 16,575 4,275 232.92
Valdosta 77.51 767,345 1.33 16,675 4,054 245.67
Marietta 74.86 722,672 1.59 16,022 3,282 303.69
Hughes 74.53 975,929 1.78 14,939 3,042 327.73
Archer 77.35 823,824 1.21 11,374 2,825 352.98
Alpharetta 73.43 972,685 1.91 12,786 2,298 434.16
West Forsyth 71.30 958,394 1.74 7,262 1,152 867.06
Brookwood 74.58 685,522 0.90 4,339 840 1,189.48
Milton 70.55 818,398 1.52 5,177 765 1,306.19
Dacula 72.24 594,810 0.74 1,843 295 3,388.83
Newnan 66.96 892,333 1.25 1,614 191 5,234.60
Etowah 67.40 618,266 1.04 1,609 184 5,433.78
South Gwinnett 70.97 537,462 0.64 1,128 163 6,133.97
North Paulding 68.01 422,706 0.72 1,434 159 6,288.31
East Coweta 65.01 842,289 1.10 734 69 14,491.75
Parkview 68.47 345,639 0.40 388 37 27,026.03
Tift County 66.48 281,863 0.35 233 30 33,332.33
Chattahoochee 59.86 605,930 0.77 120 12 83,332.33
Harrison 61.54 152,533 0.22 72 6 166,665.67
Woodstock 60.33 236,384 0.32 61 5 199,999.00
Lambert 60.13 558,269 0.71 114 2 499,999.00
South Cobb 57.75 539,101 0.61 46 2 499,999.00
Westlake 57.50 453,598 0.51 35 2 499,999.00
Wheeler 58.60 171,562 0.23 38 1 999,999.00
Newton 55.58 813,053 0.85 14 1 999,999.00
North Forsyth 55.21 334,132 0.39 11 1 999,999.00
Centennial 51.87 174,542 0.19 2 1 999,999.00
Central Gwinnett 60.93 76,941 0.08 3 - -
Lee County 58.78 73,154 0.08 3 - -
Roswell 58.51 157,598 0.21 22 - -
Shiloh 56.88 26,505 0.03 - - -
Cherokee 55.46 101,739 0.12 7 - -
South Forsyth 53.90 275,402 0.32 4 - -
Duluth 52.78 8,461 0.01 - - -
Alcovy 51.53 724,746 0.75 3 - -
Berkmar 51.38 6,218 0.01 - - -
Douglas County 50.02 145,333 0.15 - - -
Campbell 49.28 102,431 0.11 1 - -
Pope 48.90 14,826 0.02 - - -
Johns Creek 48.22 93,353 0.10 - - -
Pebblebrook 46.39 48,986 0.05 - - -
Northview 44.78 27,279 0.03 - - -
Rockdale County 43.82 420,056 0.43 - - -
Kennesaw Mountain 43.44 3,249 0.00 - - -
Mountain View 42.86 960 0.00 - - -
Lakeside (Atlanta) 29.26 43,849 0.04 - - -
Osborne 27.23 - 0.00 - - -
Habersham Central 24.84 14 0.00 - - -
Meadowcreek 20.09 1 0.00 - - -
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