Posted: 9:32 pm Sunday, August 10th, 2014

AAAAAA: Maxwell projects playoff draw, results 

By Todd Holcomb

Below are the Maxwell Ratings’ predictions of the playoff draw for Class AAAAAA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons, approximately 51 each second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. In Class AAAAAA, there are 1.52 x 10^34 possible brackets. For comparison, scientists estimate there are 7.5 x 10^18 grains of sand on earth.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
7 – AAAAAA 3 980,894 611,284 0.64
1 – AAAAAA 3 505,072 231,737 3.32
4 – AAAAAA 2 248,409 82,779 11.08
2 – AAAAAA 2 126,542 43,969 21.74
5 – AAAAAA 0 58,804 12,545 78.71
8 – AAAAAA 0 42,611 10,914 90.63
6 – AAAAAA 0 20,299 3,466 287.52
3 – AAAAAA 0 17,369 3,306 301.48

 

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Finals Champion Odds
Norcross 96.86 984,888 4.06 493,449 353,762 1.83
North Gwinnett 93.63 973,382 3.57 377,852 221,081 3.52
Colquitt County 89.19 983,091 3.00 212,946 105,667 8.46
Camden County 88.44 969,585 2.98 206,178 97,837 9.22
McEachern 84.12 935,566 2.88 124,910 47,887 19.88
Lovejoy 83.32 999,454 2.14 71,665 25,790 37.77
Collins Hill 84.24 809,386 1.91 69,471 25,557 38.13
Lowndes 82.98 924,962 2.09 69,037 24,149 40.41
Hillgrove 81.26 906,129 2.49 71,607 22,729 43.00
Tucker 81.96 998,842 2.02 54,860 18,178 54.01
North Cobb 77.69 857,145 2.09 34,364 8,716 113.73
Grayson 79.70 903,079 1.49 23,536 6,754 147.06
Mill Creek 80.16 588,490 1.18 23,547 6,609 150.31
Lassiter 76.16 939,823 2.19 26,618 5,961 166.76
Walton 75.96 941,404 2.17 25,272 5,629 176.65
Peachtree Ridge 78.67 634,432 1.18 16,575 4,275 232.92
Valdosta 77.51 767,345 1.33 16,675 4,054 245.67
Marietta 74.86 722,672 1.59 16,022 3,282 303.69
Hughes 74.53 975,929 1.78 14,939 3,042 327.73
Archer 77.35 823,824 1.21 11,374 2,825 352.98
Alpharetta 73.43 972,685 1.91 12,786 2,298 434.16
West Forsyth 71.30 958,394 1.74 7,262 1,152 867.06
Brookwood 74.58 685,522 0.90 4,339 840 1,189.48
Milton 70.55 818,398 1.52 5,177 765 1,306.19
Dacula 72.24 594,810 0.74 1,843 295 3,388.83
Newnan 66.96 892,333 1.25 1,614 191 5,234.60
Etowah 67.40 618,266 1.04 1,609 184 5,433.78
South Gwinnett 70.97 537,462 0.64 1,128 163 6,133.97
North Paulding 68.01 422,706 0.72 1,434 159 6,288.31
East Coweta 65.01 842,289 1.10 734 69 14,491.75
Parkview 68.47 345,639 0.40 388 37 27,026.03
Tift County 66.48 281,863 0.35 233 30 33,332.33
Chattahoochee 59.86 605,930 0.77 120 12 83,332.33
Harrison 61.54 152,533 0.22 72 6 166,665.67
Woodstock 60.33 236,384 0.32 61 5 199,999.00
Lambert 60.13 558,269 0.71 114 2 499,999.00
South Cobb 57.75 539,101 0.61 46 2 499,999.00
Westlake 57.50 453,598 0.51 35 2 499,999.00
Wheeler 58.60 171,562 0.23 38 1 999,999.00
Newton 55.58 813,053 0.85 14 1 999,999.00
North Forsyth 55.21 334,132 0.39 11 1 999,999.00
Centennial 51.87 174,542 0.19 2 1 999,999.00
Central Gwinnett 60.93 76,941 0.08 3 - -
Lee County 58.78 73,154 0.08 3 - -
Roswell 58.51 157,598 0.21 22 - -
Shiloh 56.88 26,505 0.03 - - -
Cherokee 55.46 101,739 0.12 7 - -
South Forsyth 53.90 275,402 0.32 4 - -
Duluth 52.78 8,461 0.01 - - -
Alcovy 51.53 724,746 0.75 3 - -
Berkmar 51.38 6,218 0.01 - - -
Douglas County 50.02 145,333 0.15 - - -
Campbell 49.28 102,431 0.11 1 - -
Pope 48.90 14,826 0.02 - - -
Johns Creek 48.22 93,353 0.10 - - -
Pebblebrook 46.39 48,986 0.05 - - -
Northview 44.78 27,279 0.03 - - -
Rockdale County 43.82 420,056 0.43 - - -
Kennesaw Mountain 43.44 3,249 0.00 - - -
Mountain View 42.86 960 0.00 - - -
Lakeside (Atlanta) 29.26 43,849 0.04 - - -
Osborne 27.23 - 0.00 - - -
Habersham Central 24.84 14 0.00 - - -
Meadowcreek 20.09 1 0.00 - - -
44 comments
OGTripleOG
OGTripleOG

They don't play real ball in gwinnett. Tucker is gonna take Norcross to the wood shed +3 tds

BcS2010
BcS2010

Went to tucker today to watch practice and teams have a lot to watch out for. Not sayin much but tucker is serious and they have a stud wr who will stretch defenses so teams can't stack the box on our wing T offense. They are young tho and missed some easy tackles and made dumb mistakes. They are a young team but there talent is soo extreme. I'm even more exited to see this season!!

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

@GwinnettDad  = = Seems you lived by the numbers last season. Remember the "empirical evidence" that I refused to accept?


@Marietta Fan == Likewise. Good luck this season. With the talent you guys have coming back, you should look forward to  another good run.

GwinnettDad
GwinnettDad

I sincerely believe that these rather fascinating sets of numbers, in the end result, at this time of the season, mean absolutely, positively nothing.

Marietta Fan
Marietta Fan

The Marietta Kell scrimmage was rescheduled due to weather for tentatively Wednesday at 6. I don't know know much about Kell, but I was pleasantly surprised that ScoreAtlanta ranked 10th statewide in the preseason today. I think this team will be very hungry after the shocking ending at Lovejoy last year. For the regulars like Sportsnut and Wildhawg, good to hear from y'all and hope everyone has a successful season

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

@Wildhawg2012  == That D is pretty stout with that group of linebackers. With Key, Barge and Hampton, I'm not sure there is a better group in the state, all-class.

Wildhawg2012
Wildhawg2012

The Colquitt Packers will be back in the hunt for sure but u guys already knew that. Defense took a hit due to graduation but will still get after it but this might be the fastest offense since 2010. But they still have to line up and play ball every week. Good luck to them and everyone this season.

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

@BcS2010  == Those are not problems. It is not like we brought in an outsider. The coaching aspect will come into play clearly this Saturday in the live scrimmage. If all goes well and I think it will, we will hit the ground running. As far as Tucker is concerned, they are just another game on the schedule. We know who they are.

BcS2010
BcS2010

This might b lovejoys best team in years but they have to replace there coach and have tucker in there region.

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

@Just A Fan  == I don't know about the scrimmage but if they are up to speed, the scoreboard operator should be busy. Both return a lot of fire power on offense. Kell will be counting on the play of their QB. They do have other weapons but his game will decide how far Kell goes.

Just A Fan
Just A Fan

Can someone out there tell me about the Kell-Marietta scrimmage? Carrollton opens with Kell -just wondering what they are up against-thanks

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

@ AseLeslie == I certainly hope so. The talent level did not drop for us. We are very capable of doing what we do, win. Most have us losing at least 2 games in the regular season. They look at McEachern and Tucker and figure we will lose. The Cat's will come to play as always. We looked good in spring and I don't expect that to change.

BoboIsNotTheProblem
BoboIsNotTheProblem

What kind of bizarre alignments did GHSA come up with this year?  Is this normal?  First, there is a range of 59 to 101 teams per classification.  What?  Why not spread the 452 schools more evenly across classifications?

Then, within classifications, the regions are bizarre.  In AAAAA, one region has 7 teams while another has 14, and the 14-team region is one big region (apparently) versus two sub-regions like prior years.  In AAAAAA (there has GOT to be a better way to type that, but you can't say 6A), one region has only 5 teams.  SO you have an 80% chance of making the playoffs in that region! 

I realize there are anomalies every year, and you are dealing with geography, but still, it seems haphazard at best.  I don't have a dog in this fight, I just am a proponent of logical processes.

AseLeslie
AseLeslie

@Sportsnutx2 we know who'll hold up the trophy in the End, #Wildcats Baby!!!! lets go Lovejoy!!!!!!!

NGHS 09
NGHS 09

@ Lowdnes Football

Not trying to bust your bubble, but Roswell hasn't been good since 2006.

Lowndes Football
Lowndes Football

I noticed Norcross was at the top of the list up there. Well Lowndes just beat that team scrimmage or not. Thats a confidence booster. Im sure Norcross will get better during the course of the year. We have 3 strong tests the first 3 games. Norcross. Roswell, and Plant Fl.

Lowndes Football
Lowndes Football

Both teams looked sloppy in the beginning especially Lowndes. Norcross was up 14-0 but Lowndes settled in and showed flashes of Lowndes of old and came storming back. Lowndes ended up beating Norcross 44-20. Norcross jv never scored in the 4 quarter. I know it was a scrimmage and all but you still want to win. Norcross will be good this year but not GREAT to win the championship this year. Lowndes has a mobile very athletic quarterback this year that will give the opposing defenses fitts. Actually we have a two quarterback that are going to be switching back and fourth

rwdekalb
rwdekalb

Did anyone go to the Lowndes-Norcross scrimmage. If so, how did the two teams look?

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

On the computer model, no way it will be North vs. Norcross. Period.

Sportsnutx2
Sportsnutx2

Everyone had better be ready. This is not  2013. Tucker will do just fine in 6A. There is a question or two about what some top teams have coming back. The name does not win, the play does. So beware of those on top falling and don't be surprised.

BcS2010
BcS2010

1st game of the season Tucker vs Norcross will show a lot of people where Tucker is and how serious they are.

BcS2010
BcS2010

Tucker will shock the whole 6A and win state. Norcross will not 3peat there not good enough this season. This tucker team hasn't lost a beat from last years team. The only question mark will be the QB play because there is a new junior QB but besides that the defense is back could b even better. The offense has a transfer RB who is 3 stars and a sophomore RB who is a top 10 sophomore in the nation not to mention the auburn RB commit. Tucker will win the region and win state. The funny thing about tucker is the lose so much talent every year but reload every year!

Brainstorm
Brainstorm

I am elated that most of the top Region 1 teams are starting the year off with big challenges....normally only Colquitt and Camden have real tests, but this year Lowndes takes on Plant, FL and Valdosta goes to Corky Kell at Brookwood.  On another note, I think Tucker will surprise many with a high level of success in 6A akin to what Northside WR did a few years ago....although they were eventually exposed by Camden in the dome.

JABAJC
JABAJC

Formerly "JAB", I really think that AAAAAA will be in for some surprise  teams this year.  My prediction is that this years state champion will be a first timer...

camden74
camden74

Interesting predictions...........

Akeem
Akeem

@OGTripleOG - This year yes Tucker will destroy Norcross, but that would not have been the case the past two years.  Norcross had a totally new team and no one knows what they will do.


But I am guessing that they will be pretty bad this year.

rattlerssssss
rattlerssssss

But Gwinnette keep winning championships...I guess everyone else should hop on board and not play real ball..lol lol

ToddHolcomb
ToddHolcomb moderator

@BoboIsNotTheProblem - There are only 85 teams in AAAAA, not 101.. The GHSA starts with the classifications being roughly equal, but then allows schools to play up. Several schools (from Columbus in particular) chose to play up in AAAAA. As far as the different sizes of regions, the prevailing view of educators is that they'd rather limit travel at the expense of more evenly balanced regions.

Lowndes Football
Lowndes Football

@NGHS 09 ----- I know. I wasn't thinking correctly. Okay so we have Norcross and Plant off top. Thats still pretty good right out the gate tho.

GwinnettDad
GwinnettDad

@Sportsnutx2 Pleased to agree with you.  Hope this trend continues.  But I won't count on it! :-)

GwinnettDad
GwinnettDad

@BcS2010 Could be.  Remember Norcross got beat by Florida team something like a gazillion to nothing in their first game last year.  Even if Norcross stinks in their first few games, what matters is how well they're playing after the regular season.  You know that, too.

rattlerssssss
rattlerssssss

No suprise..Tucker and Buford has always had the talent to compete with anyone regardless of classification

JABAJC
JABAJC

@JABAJC Camden74 it's going to be very interesting this season.  Wait until playoff time, then I'll say, "I told you so"...

GwinnettDad
GwinnettDad

@JABAJC In the top bracket, the club has been rather small.  Maybe Lovejoy? Colquitt?  Colquitt was my bet last year.

camden74
camden74

@JABAJC , since you predicted a first timer, I'm putting my money on a previous Champion! :-D

Lj4Life
Lj4Life

Tucker has to win game #1 first. Davin Weems from Sandy creek look good though.

JABAJC
JABAJC

@GwinnettDad @JABAJC GwinnettDad, I kinda sorta agree with you but don't count the Paulding County team, a sure sleeper...