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Todd Holcomb

Maxwell Ratings project girls tournament: Everybody has a chance

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The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s state basketball tournament 1 million times. These are the results  of those computer simulations for the girls brackets in classes AA through AAAAAA, which begin Friday.

Simulations for Class A, which begins Monday, will be published next week.

See simulation for the boys state tournament.

Below, each of 160 girls teams is shown with their power ratings,  their ranking among all teams in their classification,  strength of draw in the tournament,  average depth advanced to and  number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.

The data is compiled from scores reported to MaxPreps and Georgia Prep Country as of 3 p.m. Thursday. Although attempts are made to reconcile differences in the data, there are inevitably some missing, duplicated and incorrect results.  Readers are encouraged to verify and submit corrections to those websites to improve the accuracy.

Please feel free to post any questions that you have. Loren Maxwell, creator of the Maxwell Ratings, will be available to answer them.

A few observations –

Team most likely to win – Redan wins 683,738 out of 1 million simulations in Class AAAA. Next-closest contender in AAAA is Columbia, with 74,570 wins.

Team least likely to win – Newnan, which qualified with a 7-21 record, is a 76,778,821-to-1 shot in AAAAAA, according to Maxwell. They are one of 12 teams with odds of greater than 1 million to 1. 

Hardest class to predict – Buford, St. Pius and Washington County are each better than a 5-to-1 chance to win AAA. Washington County is undefeated (24-0) and ranked No. 1, but Maxwell favors Buford, partly because of a better draw.

An underdog? Wesleyan? – Maxwell projects Kendrick (27-0) as the most likely winner in AA with 434,406 wins. That would mean an end to Wesleyan’s streak of five state titles. Wesleyan wins 333,337 out of 1 million.

 CLASS AAAAAA  Rank   W   L  Rating Draw  Wins   Depth   Odds 
McEachern 1 26 3 105.78 79.71     578,437 4.10                         0.73
Archer 2 25 3 95.80 84.08     160,281 2.92                         5.24
Hillgrove 4 22 3 90.51 78.86       85,946 2.90                      10.64
Parkview 3 25 3 94.38 84.99       80,135 2.14                      11.48
Norcross 5 22 6 87.59 83.93       25,304 2.01                      38.52
North Forsyth 7 28 2 86.19 86.50       19,568 1.62                      50.10
Mountain View 6 20 5 86.89 87.08       14,688 1.44                      67.08
Westlake 8 22 4 83.57 83.28       14,420 1.89                      68.35
Douglas County 9 21 4 82.11 85.55          6,110 1.40                    162.66
Mill Creek 11 19 8 80.48 86.28          3,460 0.99                    288.02
South Forsyth 10 25 6 80.63 88.43          2,662 1.10                    374.64
Marietta 12 19 8 77.88 85.16          2,304 1.19                    433.10
Duluth 13 17 11 77.85 84.51          2,281 1.31                    437.43
North Cobb 15 20 10 77.53 87.99          1,016 0.75                    983.51
Hughes 14 24 5 77.74 86.25             844 0.55                 1,184.37
Central Gwinnett 17 18 8 76.48 88.45             652 0.40                 1,532.51
Newton 20 23 5 75.87 88.32             640 0.72                 1,561.10
Brunswick 19 24 3 76.00 86.62             510 0.54                 1,958.72
Centennial 16 20 9 77.34 91.28             339 0.19                 2,949.01
West Forsyth 22 18 10 72.69 88.70             131 0.12                 7,661.77
Lowndes 29 18 8 67.25 81.99             101 1.01                 9,924.98
South Gwinnett 23 15 11 71.47 90.67               62 0.31              16,050.57
Colquitt County 26 21 5 69.59 89.47               45 0.26              22,368.85
Roswell 27 20 8 68.86 87.94               43 0.30              23,443.33
Luella 34 15 11 64.14 88.54               11 0.27              88,072.12
Woodstock 32 18 12 65.23 91.41                  4 0.13            253,760.62
Tift County 38 12 16 61.94 87.61                  4 0.11            282,653.60
Rockdale County 37 13 9 62.18 88.43                  1 0.01            738,180.77
Alcovy 46 10 18 57.53 89.47                  1 0.04         1,233,158.61
Lassiter 42 13 16 58.23 88.72                 - 0.11         2,203,767.01
Walton 47 9 18 57.22 90.00                 - 0.04         7,383,699.47
Newnan 57 7 21 47.88 85.86                 - 0.11      76,778,821.93
CLASS AAAAA  Rank   W   L  Rating Draw  Wins   Depth   Odds 
Southwest Dekalb 1 26 2 96.64 74.43     516,426 3.86                         0.94
Tucker 2 23 4 91.44 79.15     204,895 2.74                         3.88
Drew 3 23 3 82.82 71.94     101,001 2.87                         8.90
Forest Park 8 23 8 79.43 75.89       39,539 2.07                      24.29
Stephenson 4 17 8 81.37 79.81       28,961 1.36                      33.53
Osborne 5 22 6 81.09 77.30       28,209 1.54                      34.45
Salem 7 23 3 80.27 79.31       24,487 1.28                      39.84
Mays 6 12 8 80.35 79.60       21,176 1.09                      46.22
Creekview 9 23 6 75.98 75.88       10,642 1.44                      92.96
Effingham County 10 26 2 73.29 74.12       10,249 1.81                      96.57
Starr’s Mill 13 19 7 70.98 77.95          3,383 1.06                    294.57
Greenbrier 15 23 6 68.62 75.80          2,787 1.24                    357.80
Sequoyah 11 25 7 71.66 78.91          2,114 0.75                    472.05
Northside (Columbus) 16 21 5 68.37 77.04          1,829 1.08                    545.65
Clarke Central 12 19 4 71.49 81.79          1,484 0.46                    672.88
Mt. Zion (Jonesboro) 20 17 11 65.00 76.52             667 0.68                 1,498.45
Gainesville 14 22 7 69.68 84.03             345 0.12                 2,901.57
Northside (W.Robins) 19 19 7 65.29 80.20             338 0.28                 2,954.12
Grovetown 22 21 8 64.33 79.69             335 0.54                 2,983.79
Hiram 17 23 4 67.18 78.72             325 0.38                 3,071.76
Ware County 28 21 7 60.54 74.49             252 1.08                 3,965.67
Richmond Hill 31 18 10 59.59 74.20             154 0.80                 6,508.50
Evans 26 17 8 61.34 76.23             152 0.17                 6,595.41
Loganville 21 20 9 64.65 80.83               98 0.05              10,234.70
Kell 27 13 17 60.70 79.30               55 0.54              18,064.41
Paulding County 30 18 7 59.99 79.44               48 0.59              20,784.07
Glynn Academy 32 16 9 59.46 78.83               43 0.31              23,363.92
Lee County 46 14 12 50.37 75.58                  3 0.34            301,333.21
Hardaway 47 10 20 50.16 77.44                  2 0.27            409,004.43
Bainbridge 49 15 13 49.71 78.84                  1 0.09         1,532,120.68
Villa Rica 48 12 16 50.04 82.08                 - 0.09         3,130,494.95
South Paulding 45 16 11 50.73 83.37                 - 0.04         4,954,001.11
CLASS AAAA  Rank   W   L  Rating Draw  Wins   Depth   Odds 
Redan 1 28 0 95.09 66.76     683,738 4.22                         0.46
Columbia 2 12 5 79.23 72.24       74,670 2.33                      12.39
Columbus 3 26 1 78.93 73.57       63,025 2.11                      14.87
Woodland (Stockbridge) 6 23 4 73.60 70.52       32,787 2.17                      29.50
Mary Persons 7 24 3 73.48 72.09       27,045 1.90                      35.97
Fayette County 4 19 8 74.49 72.67       25,931 1.53                      37.56
Marist 5 20 8 73.96 73.66       19,192 1.49                      51.11
South Effingham 10 23 4 69.98 70.82       13,706 1.67                      71.96
Cross Creek 12 22 3 69.72 72.69          9,932 1.47                      99.68
Rutland 11 21 4 69.86 73.75          9,636 1.19                    102.77
River Ridge 8 21 7 70.86 74.42          8,752 1.27                    113.26
Monroe 13 23 4 68.13 72.99          6,830 1.23                    145.42
Dutchtown 15 15 6 67.53 72.71          5,991 1.24                    165.93
Northwest Whitfield 9 24 4 70.61 73.66          5,840 0.74                    170.25
Grady 14 18 8 67.92 75.02          2,989 0.73                    333.51
Jonesboro 16 17 9 66.66 74.66          2,846 0.66                    350.39
Chestatee 18 24 4 66.19 75.36          1,909 0.70                    522.71
Burke County 19 21 6 63.68 74.19          1,226 0.75                    814.49
Carrollton 17 22 6 66.61 73.23          1,219 0.40                    819.22
Richmond Academy 20 19 7 63.40 73.94          1,098 0.56                    910.11
Westover 23 21 6 61.28 74.72             577 0.66                 1,731.37
Veterans 24 18 10 61.25 74.43             514 0.47                 1,943.48
Heritage (Ringgold) 22 21 7 61.50 76.31             265 0.26                 3,770.95
Gilmer 29 17 10 59.44 77.47               86 0.14              11,646.74
Griffin 34 12 10 56.41 75.51               55 0.18              18,278.09
Sandy Creek 32 12 16 57.14 77.17               41 0.20              24,383.10
Crisp County 35 16 12 55.51 75.87               40 0.21              25,046.84
Stephens County 36 14 12 55.46 78.12               19 0.09              51,701.12
Eastside 39 13 12 54.41 77.38               15 0.16              66,233.68
Westside (Macon) 42 10 19 52.28 74.78               12 0.12              83,496.27
Dougherty 43 15 10 52.08 74.40               12 0.15              86,662.69
Walnut Grove 45 14 11 50.02 75.77                  2 0.01            641,773.28
CLASS AAA  Rank   W   L  Rating Draw  Wins   Depth   Odds 
Buford 1 26 2 84.31 63.97     364,679 3.51                         1.74
St. Pius X Catholic 2 26 3 84.22 68.77     296,032 3.21                         2.38
Washington County 3 24 0 80.41 67.83     170,753 2.84                         4.86
Beach 4 25 1 72.44 68.20       32,704 1.94                      29.58
Pike County 10 21 7 68.13 67.46       19,871 1.80                      49.32
Morgan County 5 20 4 70.52 70.75       19,400 1.62                      50.55
Franklin County 6 22 6 69.30 70.79       15,416 1.29                      63.87
Decatur 8 21 7 68.95 70.24       12,120 1.08                      81.51
Central (Carrollton) 14 24 2 65.81 68.79       10,044 1.47                      98.56
Johnson (Savannah) 15 22 7 65.22 67.04          9,990 1.65                      99.11
Tattnall County 13 24 3 67.02 70.91          8,915 1.02                    111.18
North Hall 11 18 9 68.05 71.83          8,570 0.94                    115.68
Southwest 7 20 4 69.14 73.51          8,333 1.03                    119.01
Dawson County 12 18 9 67.56 73.63          5,473 0.87                    181.73
Dodge County 20 24 5 63.80 71.66          3,553 0.78                    280.43
East Hall 18 16 14 64.30 69.95          3,297 1.09                    302.30
Peach County 19 20 6 64.25 68.84          3,229 1.20                    308.65
Sonoraville 17 21 6 64.53 72.53          3,014 0.70                    330.81
Cartersville 16 23 4 64.59 74.32          2,305 0.71                    432.79
Woodward Academy 22 18 10 61.70 72.93             915 0.41                 1,092.13
Chapel Hill 21 21 5 62.00 75.19             766 0.49                 1,304.44
North Oconee 25 19 10 59.95 73.62             306 0.11                 3,266.31
Central (Macon) 29 8 16 54.97 70.96             150 0.31                 6,671.79
Elbert County 28 16 12 57.10 71.09             121 0.23                 8,232.90
Blessed Trinity 31 14 14 53.33 74.19               27 0.16              37,512.24
Callaway 38 17 8 48.09 71.47                  7 0.12            145,233.01
Pierce County 36 11 12 49.46 74.02                  5 0.05            214,601.41
Thomson 40 10 16 46.07 71.68                  4 0.13            264,894.51
North Murray 39 11 16 46.16 71.70                  1 0.13            730,177.11
Ringgold 48 6 21 40.31 72.77                 - 0.01      11,712,091.99
Jefferson County 47 7 20 40.65 74.56                 - 0.04      11,923,815.76
Jackson 53 3 19 38.23 72.70                 - 0.06      28,010,215.64
Class AA  Rank   W   L  Rating Draw  Wins   Depth   Odds 
Kendrick 1 27 0 89.40 65.13     434,406 3.78                         1.30
Wesleyan 2 24 3 87.39 67.31     333,337 3.67                         2.00
Pelham 3 26 0 80.32 68.60       94,602 2.78                         9.57
GAC 4 22 6 78.82 68.22       80,835 2.30                      11.37
Laney 5 26 1 76.63 70.12       43,140 2.35                      22.18
Putnam County 6 25 2 62.86 64.75          4,668 1.91                    213.22
Bleckley County 12 20 7 60.61 68.61          1,464 1.01                    682.24
Armuchee 8 21 6 62.47 70.67          1,340 1.32                    745.20
Westside (Augusta) 13 18 8 60.23 68.89          1,339 1.07                    745.58
Vidalia 14 21 5 58.98 68.94             968 0.97                 1,032.27
Pepperell 9 22 3 62.24 71.47             945 1.00                 1,057.09
Jefferson 10 20 9 60.92 71.76             807 1.18                 1,238.42
Rabun County 7 17 9 62.58 71.92             774 0.73                 1,290.74
Calhoun 11 20 6 60.69 71.77             539 0.78                 1,852.99
Cook 20 20 8 53.97 68.79             161 0.70                 6,224.83
Dublin 22 15 11 53.50 68.77             157 0.78                 6,381.50
Early County 19 16 10 54.06 70.57             151 0.57                 6,601.11
Taylor County 16 19 10 55.48 72.78               91 0.85              10,929.58
Westminster 15 13 15 57.31 71.79               85 0.35              11,741.15
Union County 17 16 11 55.31 73.73               42 0.05              24,083.92
Spencer 18 16 9 54.28 71.86               37 0.33              27,295.98
Monticello 21 16 10 53.51 74.15               34 0.58              29,515.95
Lovett 24 7 18 52.19 73.51               23 0.35              43,106.57
McIntosh County Acad. 25 17 9 51.40 74.60               17 0.54              59,649.27
Thomasville 23 17 11 52.65 74.91               16 0.11              61,823.06
Greene County 26 17 9 51.02 76.06                  7 0.07            134,442.39
Manchester 29 17 10 47.86 75.17                  5 0.27            203,406.72
Josey 27 12 9 49.04 74.86                  4 0.05            251,732.62
Bowdon 28 19 10 48.84 74.15                  4 0.19            284,429.46
St. Vincent’s 32 15 10 45.34 74.22                  1 0.25            900,080.79
Model 30 9 18 45.81 73.85                  1 0.01         1,415,505.13
Bryan County 41 14 16 38.62 69.59                 - 0.08         5,121,516.81
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